Abstract
The Loess Plateau is one of the most fragile ecosystems in the world. In order to increase the biodiversity in the area, develop sustainable agriculture and increase the income of the local people, we simulated the potential geographic distribution of two economic forest trees (Malus pumila Mill and Prunus armeniaca L.) in the present and future under two climate scenarios, using the maximum entropy model. In this study, the importance and contributions of environmental variables, areas of suitable habitats, changes in habitat suitability, the direction and distance of habitat range shifts, the change ratios for habitat area and land use proportions, were measured. According to our results, bioclimatic variables, topographic variables and soil variables play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6) was the most important environmental variable for the distribution of the two economic forest trees. The second most important factors for M. pumila and P. armeniaca were, respectively, the elevation and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17). At the time of the study, the area of above moderately suitable habitats (AMSH) was 8.7967 × 104 km2 and 11.4631 × 104 km2 for M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The effect of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-85 was more dramatic than that of SSP1-26. Between now and the 2090s (SSP 5-85), the AMSH area of M. pumila is expected to decrease to 7.5957 × 104 km2, while that of P. armeniaca will increase to 34.6465 × 104 km2. The suitability of M. pumila decreased dramatically in the south and southeast regions of the Loess Plateau, increased in the middle and west and resulted in a shift in distance in the range of 78.61~190.63 km to the northwest, while P. armeniaca shifted to the northwest by 64.77~139.85 km. This study provides information for future policymaking regarding economic forest trees in the Loess Plateau.
Highlights
The global ecosystem is under great pressure resulting from both climate change and social development [1]
It should be noted that both bio6 and elevation had a wide range of contribution rate and importance rate values in the SSP1-26 scenario
This study investigated the geographical distribution of M. pumila and P. armeniaca on the Loess Plateau using the Maxent model in three periods under two climate scenarios (SSP1-26 and SSP5-85)
Summary
The global ecosystem is under great pressure resulting from both climate change and social development [1]. A number of important studies have proven that climate change is having a profound impact on ecosystem biodiversity, at both global and local scales [2]. Climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation and radiation) leads to land use and land cover change (LUCC), which in turn leads to changes in the climate, in the form of temperature changes Both climate change and LUCC have significant impacts on the distribution ranges and spatial living patterns of biological organisms. In the past few decades, with technological developments, a number of models based on various hypotheses have been applied in ecology that can directly calculate the correlations between environmental factors in species and communities [5,6,7]. Previous studies reveal that Maxent has significantly superior performance over other methods in terms of its high accuracy and tolerance [3], for poorly known species with few occurrence records [21]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
