Suitable Cultivation Regions Research Articles

Climatic zoning of yerba mate and climate change projections: a CMIP6 approach.

Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is renowned for its nutritional and pharmaceutical attributes. A staple in South American (SA) culture, it serves as the foundation for several traditional beverages. Significantly, the pharmaceutical domain has secured numerous patents associated with this plant's distinctive properties. This research delves into the climatic influence on yerba mate by leveraging the CMIP6 model projections to assess potential shifts brought about by climate change. Given its economic and socio-cultural significance, comprehending how climate change might sway yerba mate's production and distribution is pivotal. The CMIP6 model offers insights into future conditions, pinpointing areas that are either conducive or adverse for yerba mate cultivation. Our findings will be instrumental in crafting adaptive and mitigative strategies, thereby directing sustainable production planning for yerba mate. The core objective of this study was to highlight zones optimal for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation across its major producers: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under CMIP6's climate change forecasts. Our investigation encompassed major producing zones spanning the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil, along with the aforementioned countries. A conducive environment for this crop's growth features air temperatures between 21 to 25°C and a minimum precipitation of 1200mm per cycle. We sourced the current climate data from the WorldClim version 2 platform. Meanwhile, projections for future climatic parameters were derived from WorldClim 2.1, utilizing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model with a refined 30-s spatial resolution. We took into account four distinct socio-economic pathways over varying timelines: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2081, and 2081-2100. Geographic information system data aided in the spatial interpolation across Brazil, applying the Kriging technique. The outcomes revealed a majority of the examined areas as non-conducive for yerba mate cultivation, with a scanty 12.25% (1.5 million km2) deemed favorable. Predominantly, these propitious regions lie in southern Brazil and Uruguay, the present-day primary producers of yerba mate. Alarming was the discovery that forthcoming climatic scenarios predominantly forecast detrimental shifts, characterized by escalating average air temperatures and diminishing rainfall. These trends portend a decline in suitable cultivation regions for yerba mate.

Effect of Climate Change on the Potentially Suitable Distribution Pattern of Castanopsis hystrix Miq. in China.

Climate warming poses a great threat to ecosystems worldwide, which significantly affects the geographical distribution and suitable growth area of species. Taking Castanopsis hystrix Miq. as the research object, the potentially suitable cultivation regions under present and future climatic emission scenarios in China were predicted based on the MaxEnt model with 360 effective individual distributions and eight environmental variables. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are three leading factors affecting the geographical distribution area of C. hystrix Miq. The suitable cultivation regions of C. hystrix Miq. range from 18°-34° N, 89°-122° E in central and southern China and cover an area of 261.95 × 104 km2. The spatial pattern of C. hystrix Miq. will migrate to the southern region of low latitudes with a decreasing suitable area when in ssp1-2.6, and to the southwestern region of low latitudes or expand to the northeast region at high latitudes in ssp5-8.5, with an increasing suitable area; no significant change on the spatial pattern in ssp2-2.4. For ssp1-2.6 or ssp2-4.5 climate scenarios, the southern region of high latitudes will be appropriate for introducing and cultivating C. hystrix Miq., and the cultivation area will increase. For ssp5-8.5, its cultivation will increase and expand to the northeast of high-latitude areas slightly.

Evaluation of straw and plastic film mulching on wheat production: A meta-analysis in Loess Plateau of China

Field mulching is an important technique of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) cultivation in the Loess Plateau (LP) of China, which alleviates the local agricultural water-shortage. At present, there are few bidirectional effect analyses on plastic film mulching (PM) and straw mulching (SM) in LP area. This study uses control variable method to estimate mulches response magnitude (yield, WUE and ET) for ecological factors. We collected a total of 118 peer-reviewed publications after 2000. The results showed that PM significantly increased wheat yield in most vulnerable eco-regions, but SM was more suitable in areas both with higher sunshine (> 2500 h) and air temperature (> 8 °C), or frost-free period > 200 days. Generally, the average yield increase of PM was 4.04% higher than SM. While annual precipitation exceeded 600 mm and air temperature exceeded 13 °C, film treatment had higher WUE, which reached 37.65 and 36.89 kg ha −1 mm −1 respectively. We also found that certain soil physicochemical properties such as soil water content, bulk density, sand content, pH, organic carbon, available nitrogen, available phosphorus would significantly affect wheat yield under mulching. When soil water content < 16% or > 24%, and soil temperature > 16 °C, PM had the relative dominance that corresponding effect sizes were 0.499, 0.667 and 1.176 respectively. By comparing the output input ratio (OIR), PM needed 6.77% cost higher than SM in premise of same yield. On the whole, the suitable cultivation regions of PM were wider than SM, so former was most important mulching technology in current LP. While SM had obvious advantages in “return on investment”, and more conducive to protecting soil ecosystem health or promoting agriculture sustainable development, hence it would lead local mulching technology innovation in the future. • Plastic film mulching significantly increased the wheat yield in most vulnerable eco-regions of China’s Loess Plateau. • Straw mulching was more suitable in areas with abundant solar and thermal resources. • Soil physicochemical properties have the wide influence on plastic and straw mulching effects. • The economic benefit of per unit yield under straw mulching was relatively ideal.

Determination of Suitable Regions for Cultivation of Three Medicinal Plants under a Changing Climate

The use of less vulnerable species to climate change such as medicinal plants can be considered as a coping strategy for adapting to climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the suitability of the arable lands located in the Daryache-Namak basin, Iran, for cultivation of several medicinal plants. An approach based on the fuzzy logic was developed that considers potential changes in suitability caused by both climate anomalies and new policies regarding the conflicting water demand. This approach uses different factors, including climate, water availability, soil texture, and salinity to classify the suitability. Monthly outputs of regional climate simulations conducted under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program were applied to project the future climate. The results showed that climate anomalies and new policies have led to shifts in the spatial distribution of medicinal plants. For instance, the area of highly suitable lands for cultivating medicinal plants was decreased by 10%. Furthermore, the suitability score of the proposed approach had the largest determination coefficient for yield estimations, mainly due to accounting explicitly for various environmental factors. Based on the field survey, it is revealed that the potentially suitable cultivation regions are highly coincident with the existing cultivated locations. Comparing the different polygons indicated that for marginally and not suitable classes, the contribution of maximum and minimum temperature was increased and decreased, respectively. Similarly, in these two classes, the contribution of water availability would increase.

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change.

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

Climatic factors control the geospatial distribution of active ingredients in Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge in China

Climate change profoundly influences the geospatial distribution of secondary metabolites and causes the geographical migration of plants. We planted seedlings of the same species in eighteen ecological regions along a latitudinal gradient in eastern and western China, in order to explore the regulation of multi-climatic factors on active ingredient accumulation in Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge. The correlations between six active ingredient contents and ten climatic factors were investigated to clarify their relationships. We found that climatic factors not only regulated active ingredient contents but also markedly influenced their composition and led to a specific geospatial distribution of these active ingredients in China. The main climatic factors include the air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric vapour pressure and sunshine duration. Future warming in high-latitude regions could cause continued northward expansion of planting areas suitable for S. miltiorrhiza. The effect of extreme climatic conditions on active ingredients should not be overlooked. The findings of this study can help farmers scientifically choose suitable cultivation regions in the future. Furthermore, this study provides an innovative idea for the exploration of secondary metabolic responses to changing ecological factors in medicinal plants.

Predicting the current and future cultivation regions of Carthamus tinctorius L. using MaxEnt model under climate change in China

Change in future climate will either expand, contract or shift the climatic niche of many species and this could lead to shifting of their geographical ranges. Prediction of suitable cultivation regions through modeling has evolved as a useful tool for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect medicinal plants. We modelled current and future distribution of C. tinctorius based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the year 2050s and 2070s using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographical information system (GIS) in China. For modeling procedure 99 occurrence records and 11 Worldclim environmental factors was used in this paper. The results show that the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.970, thereby placing these models in the “Excellent” category. The jackknife test also showed that maximum temperature in March (tmax3), maximum temperature in February (tmax2), maximum temperature in November (tmax11), precipitation in July (prec7) and precipitation in August (prec8) were the main variables. From the area of current distribution, of the total 6276666.77 km2 (65.36%) area, 27.28% area (2619895.88 km2) was highly suitable for safflower in China, and the highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Sichuan (2.74%), Yunnan (2.09%), Shaanxi (1.82%), Hubei (1.76%), Guizhou (1.66%), Henan (1.66%) and Hunan (1.64%). Xinjiang was the largest suitable area, which accounts for 9.70%. It was worth noting, realized niche was little planting in Sichuan province due to market and economic price factors, social factors and other factors. Compared to the current distribution, the total area of the poorly suitable regions and moderately suitable regions for safflower under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) would increase in 2050s and 2070s. However, the total area of the highly suitable regions under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050s and two RCPs (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) in 2070s would decrease. This research would provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, cultivation management, and sustainable utilization of C. tinctorius resources to face the challenge of global climate change.

Modeling habitat suitability of Perilla frutescens with MaxEnt in Uttarakhand—A conservation approach

Prediction of suitable cultivation regions through modeling has evolved as a useful tool for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect medicinal plants. The population of Perilla frutescens, one of the therapeutic traditional crop in the Indian Himalayan region has declined over the past few years. This paper reports on potentially suitable cultivation regions for Perilla in Uttarakhand using MaxEnt Modeling.For modeling procedure 35 occurrence records and 14 Worldclim environmental factors as well as aspect, slope, vegetation and elevation data was used. The result showed that precipitation is the key influential factor that affects the distribution of Perilla. The highly suitable cultivation regions of Perilla are Dehradun, Tehri Garhwal, Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag and Nainital districts of Uttarakhand, India. The statistically significant AUC (area under curve) value (0.915) of ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve indicated that MaxEnt could be used to predict the potentially suitable cultivation regions of medicinal plants, and the results could pave way for habitat conservation and resource utilization of rare and endangered medicinal plants.

Geospatial delineation of South Korea for adjusted barley cultivation under changing climate

Determining effective measures to alleviate the impact of climate change on crops under various regional environments is one of the most urgent issues facing agriculture. In this study, geographic regions of South Korea for future-adjusted barley cultivation were outlined and the impact of climate change on barley production in the next 100 years was evaluated under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios: the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. To achieve our intended study goals, a geospatial crop simulation modeling (GCSM) scheme was formulated using CERES-barley model of Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (DSSAT) crop model package version 4.6 to simulate grid-based geospatial crop yields. Two experiments were carried out at an open field to obtain model coefficients for the nation and at temperature gradient field chambers to evaluate the performance of the CERES-barley model under elevated temperature conditions. Suitable cultivation regions for three different types of barley (naked, hooded, and malting) under changing climate were projected to expand to the northern regions under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. However, they were projected to expand more rapidly under RCP 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Projected yields of four barley varieties were increased with a slow phase as year progressed under RCP 4.5 scenario. However, they were rapidly increased under RCP 8.5 scenario. It appears that geospatial variation in barley yield under changing climate can be effectively outlined. Therefore, GCSM system might be useful for determining impacts of climate change on geospatial variations of crops, potentially providing means to impede food insecurity.

Predicting suitable cultivation regions of medicinal plants with Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics: a case study of Scutellaria baicalensis in China

Scientific prediction of suitable cultivation regions is an effective way for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect endangered medicinal plants. In recent years, the natural habitat of Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi has been degenerating and disappearing in China owing to excessive market demand of medicinal plant resource. This paper reports a new approach to predict potential suitable cultivation regions and to explore the key environmental factors affecting the content of active ingredients in S. baicalensis using integrated Maxent (maximum entropy) modeling and fuzzy logics. The modeling procedure used 275 occurrence records and baicalin contents of S. baicalensis collected through 2000–2014, and 16 Worldclim environmental factors as well as HWSD soil data. The result showed that six environmental factors (alt, prec7, prec1, bio4, bio1 and t_ph) were determined as key influential factors that mostly affect both the habitat distribution and baicalin content of S. baicalensis. The highly suitable cultivation regions of S. baicalensis mainly distribute (with probability ≥0.50) in the northeast, the north-central and the northwest of China (total 419,857 km2). The statistically significant AUC (area under the curve) value (0.952) of ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve indicated that integrated Maxent modeling and fuzzy logics could be used to predict the potential suitable cultivation regions of medicinal plants. These results could pave the road for the habitat conservation and resource utilization of endangered medicinal plants.

Variation of Medicinal Components in a Unique Geographical Accession of Horny Goat Weed Epimedium sagittatum Maxim. (Berberidaceae)

Herbal Epimedium species have been widely in Traditional Chinese Medicine for sexual enhancement, immunity improvement, anticancer and anti-aging treatment, with flavonoids and polysaccharides being the major active components. However, exhaustive depletion of wild sources warrants germplasm evaluation and quality resource exploration. A preliminarily analysis had previously indicated that a specific local geographic accession of Epimedium sagittatum found in Luotian (LT) county of Hubei Province (China) had a much higher content of total flavonoids and polysaccharides. In this study, we further investigated the medicinal component variation in the LT type under different light intensities and in different regions by the common-garden experiment. The results indicated a light intensity range of 40–160 μmol/m2/s was the most suitable for the synthesis and accumulation of total flavonoids, while polysaccharide accumulation was negatively correlated with the light intensity. Icariin was the component displaying the highest content among flavonoids, and the content of major flavonoid bioactive components was relatively stable in the third year after cultivation. There was significant correlation between the major flavonol glycoside constituents and the geographic location, and Central China followed by Northern China were the highly suitable regions for cultivation of LT type E. sagittatum. The results revealed that there was a functional balance between flavonoids and polysaccharides at different developmental stages, and the best harvesting stage should consider the primary contents of interest. This study provides important information on the exploration of quality resources, further breeding approaches and cultivation practices of E. sagittatum, and thus the important insights to enhance our understanding of quality control of traditional medicinal plants.

Correlations between Climatic Conditions and Berry Composition of ‘Koshu’ (Vitis vinifera) Grape in Japan

The aim of this study was to elucidate the effects of climatic conditions in three grape-growing regions on ‘Koshu’ (Vitis vinifera) grape composition over a four-year period from 2004 to 2007. Total solar radiation was the highest in Kofu and the total soluble solids (TSS) concentration of grapes grown in this region was higher than those of grapes grown in the other two regions. Katsunuma showed a large difference between average maximum and minimum air temperatures, and anthocyanin concentration in grape skin was the highest. In addition, grape juice had high total phenolics (TP) concentration. Nirasaki had the highest elevation of the three regions tested. Because of this, the maturity of grape berries grown in the Nirasaki vineyard was delayed by a couple of weeks compared to that of grape berries grown in Kofu vineyard. Yeast assimilable nitrogen (YAN) content in grape juice might be not affected by climatic conditions in each growing region. A strong correlation was noted between total solar radiation in August (10 to 13 weeks post-flowering; WPF) and ‘Koshu’ grape composition compared with other climatic conditions, such as rainfall, average air temperature, and the difference between maximum and minimum air temperatures. Moreover, the correlation coefficients between average air temperature and the grape composition in August were also higher than those 14 to 17 WPF (September) and 18 to 20 WPF (October). Thus, climatic conditions in August influenced ‘Koshu’ grape composition. These findings are expected to greatly contribute to the selection of suitable cultivation regions for ‘Koshu’ grape and the improvement of ‘Koshu’ wine quality.

Ecological Suitability of Arctium lappa L. and its Suitable Cultivation Regions in China

Dao-Di-Yao-Cai means the Chinese materia medica with highest quality. It is a unique index used for the evaluation of Chinese materia medica in traditional Chinese medicine and is nearly completed after a long-time clinical experience evaluation of practitioners. The fruit of Arctium lappa is a generally-used herbal medicine in TCM for the treatment of flu, diabetes, etc. [1]. Modern research indicated that the lignans from the fruit of A. lappa account for most of the associated activity, especially the compound arctiin, that possesses anti-virus, anti-cancer and anti-diabetes activity by way of its primary metabolite arctigenin [2]. To explore the ecological suitability and appropriate cultivation regions, 34 samples of A.&#146;Lappa, including fruits and its rhizosphere soil, were distributed to four principal cultivation regions for A. lappa in China. The contents of arctii and arctigenin were selected as index markers to measure the pharmacological actions of the fruits of A. lappa and were determined by HPLC. In addition to these markers, the mass of a thousand seed, seed germination rate and energy, were chosen as indicators to evaluate the seed quality. The trace elements in soil and seeds were determined, the pH, total nitrogen and anions, such as Cl−, NO3 −, CO3 2−, SO4 2− etc., in soils and rhizosphere microorganism were also analyzed. In addition the information on ecological factors encompassed longitude, latitude, temperature in January and July, slope orientation, rain volume/year was collected from GISTCM. The mathematic statistic analysis indicated that the heavy metals in soil increased the seed germination rate and the rain volume and temperature in July have a great effect on the content of arctii. In addition a probiotic fungus and a inhibition fungus for the growth of A. lappa were identified from its rhizosphere soil. The suitable cultivation regions of A. lappa in China were divided based on the comparison of ecological suitable factors by TCMGIS system. Acknowledgements: Thanks for the funding of the National Eleventh-five year scientific Supporting plan, China.

Global prediction of area change of suitable regions for cereal cultivation caused by global warming

Estimation of contemporary production regions of major cereal around the world is significant to predict food supply in the 21st century. We introduced the concept of suitable regions for cultivation. Our proposed method is to identify global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation using weather data, soil data, and vegetative biomass change patterns. We estimated the present area of suitable regions for major cereal cultivation to be 515 Mha. By comparison with the 1993 FAO statistical values, it was concluded that our method accurately identifies global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation and determines their area. Under conditions of double the current CO2 concentration, it was estimated that the area of suitable regions would be 279 Mha which represents a decrease of 46 per cent.