Global prediction of area change of suitable regions for cereal cultivation caused by global warming

Abstract

Estimation of contemporary production regions of major cereal around the world is significant to predict food supply in the 21st century. We introduced the concept of suitable regions for cultivation. Our proposed method is to identify global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation using weather data, soil data, and vegetative biomass change patterns. We estimated the present area of suitable regions for major cereal cultivation to be 515 Mha. By comparison with the 1993 FAO statistical values, it was concluded that our method accurately identifies global suitable regions for major cereal cultivation and determines their area. Under conditions of double the current CO2 concentration, it was estimated that the area of suitable regions would be 279 Mha which represents a decrease of 46 per cent.