Suitable Climate Space Research Articles

Tree species distributions in the United States and Canada under climate from 20,000 years ago to year 2100

Current locations of species may not be suited to future climate, resulting in ranges that shift to higher latitudes, with potential for range expansion or contraction in extent. To identify potential shifts in distributions of 119 tree species centered in the United States and Canada, I modeled species occurrences under current climate and then predicted to past (20, 10, and 6 thousand years ago) and future climates (six projections during 2071–2100 for North American warming of 4.3 °C to 8.8 °C), with a singular focus on the climate space of tree species, or bioclimatic envelope models. Mean accuracies of withheld samples for models, based on climate of 1900 to 1990, were 0.97, with an average of 6.2 variables per model; annual temperature and temperature of the warmest quarter generally were the most important variables. Based on model predictions under past and future climate, centers of species distributions shifted an average of 565 km latitudinally since climate 20,000 years ago and 440 km to 1065 km shifts were expected in response to end-of-century climates. Overall, 64 tree species may gain more area than lose area that matches current climate space under future climate, whereas 36 species may lose potential climate space, with relative stability for 19 species. Canada and the mountainous western U.S., and National Forests in the mountainous western U.S., were likely to gain climate space appropriate for these species, particularly species of the eastern U.S. Conversely, greatest number of species were predicted to be lost from most of the eastern half of the U.S.; National Forests in the southeastern U.S., particularly in Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas, may lose 25 to 50 of these tree species. Isolation of potential dynamics for tree species already native to northern North America demonstrated that a large pool of diverse species from the southeastern U.S. was predicted to have suitable climate space in Canada and the western U.S. It may be beneficial for managers to become familiar with tree species south or east of their regions, particularly climate-tolerant pine and oak species, to determine which ones are desirable to manage for the future.

Susceptibility of dwarf chameleons to climate and land use change: a vulnerability framework for conservation planning

Climate and land use changes are eroding biodiversity globally, and reptiles are highlighted as being particularly susceptible. In South Africa, global changes threaten the persistence of an assemblage of dwarf chameleons (Bradypodion) located in a biodiversity hotspot. We used ecological niche modelling to assess the combined effect of climate change and habitat transformation on these species and assessed their susceptibility in a vulnerability framework under optimistic and pessimistic change scenarios. Although our models showed a gain in suitable climatic space for all coastal species in some scenarios, considerable losses were predicted for most species under the most pessimistic change scenarios. Bradypodion ngomeense, for example is predicted to incur a complete loss of climatic suitability by 2050. The vulnerability framework predicts inland species to be more adversely affected by climate change than coastal species. However, no species show resilience to the combined effects of climate change and habitat transformation. Our models predicted a loss of climatically suitable habitat for most species in protected areas. These findings highlight the importance of a protected area network design to remain a step ahead of these anticipated changes.

Growth-dependent acclimation constrains climatic response for the lichen epiphyte Lobaria pulmonaria

AbstractSpecies can respond to climate change by migrating to track their suitable climate space, and/or through adaptation (across generations) or acclimation (by individuals) to a changed in situ environment. Lichens provide an excellent model for studying acclimation; being poikilohydric, there is strong evidence that their phenotype presents an adaptation to different moisture regimes, and that key aspects of the phenotype, notably specific thallus mass (STM), have plasticity towards effective acclimation that maximizes water storage in drier environments. In this study we quantified acclimation of STM for Lobaria pulmonaria across a regional climatic gradient, and within sites for different microclimates, using a one-year common garden growth experiment. We found that STM tended to increase with thallus growth; however, when accounting for growth, STM shifted to be lower than average in wetter environments, higher than average in intermediate environments, and failed to respond in the driest environment where growth was compromised. The possibility of phenotypic acclimation in Lobaria pulmonaria appears to be functionally linked to the propensity for growth, and we present a scheme coupling growth with STM to define the limits of the species realized niche.

Suitable climate space and genetic diversity of the mountain-affiliated moth Cosmosoma maishei (Erebidae: Arctiinae: Arctiini: Euchromiina) in cloud forests of Chiapas, Mexico

Suitable climate space and genetic diversity of the mountain-affiliated moth Cosmosoma maishei (Erebidae: Arctiinae: Arctiini: Euchromiina) in cloud forests of Chiapas, Mexico

A solution for perfect bioclimate envelopes that are imperfect for extirpated species

Present-day species distributions modeled with climate variables cannot provide potential future climate space for species that have contracted in range due to extirpations, regardless of abundant sample sizes within current ranges. My objective was to examine effects of range contractions on modeling of species to determine suitable space under climate change, exploring different approaches to modeling based on historical range maps. As examples of this issue, I estimated the current and future bioclimate envelopes of American bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus elaphus) from their current reduced ranges in the western United States compared to historical ranges immediately before extirpation. One solution for bioclimate envelope modeling is to generate presence samples from the historical range and pseudoabsence samples from outside of the historical range. By using the fullest climate space, the models identified areas of future suitable climate space that otherwise would be underpredicted (10%-27% of climate space, for these two examples) based on current ranges of species that have been extirpated from their historical range. Range contraction substantially reduced predictions of suitable climatic space under climate change. Therefore, species need to be evaluated for range extirpation before determining potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity conservation.

Once upon a time in Mexico: Holocene biogeography of the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum).

Holocene-era range expansions are relevant to understanding how a species might respond to the warming and drying climates of today. The harsh conditions of North American deserts have phylogenetically structured desert bat communities but differences in flight capabilities are expected to affect their ability to compete, locate, and use habitat in the face of modern climate change. A highly vagile but data-deficient bat species, the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum), is thought to have expanded its range from central Mexico to western Canada during the Holocene. With specimens spanning this latitudinal extent, we examined historical demography, and used ecological niche modeling (ENM) and phylogeography (mitochondrial DNA), to investigate historic biogeography from the rear to leading edges of the species' range. The ENM supported the notion that Mexico was largely the Pleistocene-era range, whereas haplotype pattern and Skyline plots indicated that populations expanded from the southwestern US throughout the Holocene. This era provided substantial gains in suitable climate space and likely facilitated access to roosting habitat throughout the US Intermountain West. Incongruent phylogenies among different methods prevented a precise understanding of colonization history. However, isolation at the southern-most margin of the range suggests a population was left behind in Mexico as climate space contracted and are currently of unknown status. The species appears historically suited to follow shifts in climate space but differences in flight behaviors between leading edge and core-range haplogroups suggest range expansions could be influenced by differences in habitat quality or climate (e.g., drought). Although its vagility could facilitate response to environmental change and thereby avoid extinction, anthropogenic pressures at the core range could still threaten the ability for beneficial alleles to expand into the leading edge.

The benefits of being smaller: Consistent pattern for climate-induced range shift and morphological difference of three falconiforme species

Climate exerts a dominant control over the distribution of species. Generally, species migrate to higher elevations to track thermal niches, but variations in morphological traits can result in trait-specific responses to climate change. Here we attempted to explore how three sympatrically distributed raptor species (the Upland Buzzard Buteo hemilasius, UB; the Common Kestrel, also called Eurasian ​Kestrel Falco tinnunculus, EK; and the Saker Falcon Falco cherrug, SF) would respond to climate change over time, and whether their responses would bias by different morphology. We tested the alternative hypotheses for Allen's rule for UB, EK, and SF in Qinghai Province, China, by modeling their current and future habitat suitability and confirming whether a consistent pattern exists between climate-induced range shifts and morphological differences among species. The extent of the projected distribution range within protected areas was also calculated for each species. We identified the future downward elevation shift for all the species, but with the notable northeastward shifting of the suitable climate space for UB and SF. Climate change would induce range contraction in the future, and the most acute influence is always the result of the pessimistic SSP585 scenario. No obvious pattern in climate-induced range shift was found for EK, for whom the morphological traits were significantly smaller all the time. More seriously, the ratios of highly suitable habitats being protected for our three raptor species were almost at a deficient level (below 1%). This study firstly tested the alternative hypothesis of Allen's rule among raptors in Qinghai Province unprecedently, confirmed the morphological basis for different responses to changing climate across species, and demonstrated the protection deficiency under the current protected area design. We advocate more related studies in the future to verify our findings across more taxa.

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities.

AimClimate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants.MethodsWe (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.ResultsFuture climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high‐elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst‐case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high‐elevation areas, a lack of high‐resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.Main conclusionsClimate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region‐wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Reduced range size and Important Bird and Biodiversity Area coverage for the Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) predicted from multiple climate change scenarios

Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on species distributions, contracting suitable climate space. Biodiversity areas are important to mitigate these negative effects but are static by design and thus do not account for future projections of species distributions. The Harpy Eagle Harpia harpyja has a broad range across lowland Neotropical forests and thus its distribution could be negatively affected by climate change when combined with current rates of habitat loss. To test this hypothesis, we use spatial point process models fitted with climatic, topographical and landcover covariates to identify the current distribution. We then project to 24 future climate scenarios, using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios between the years 2021 and 2100 averaged over four, 20‐year periods. Our current model identified a core range across Amazonia and the Guiana Shield, with evergreen forest (71%), mean diurnal temperature range (13%) and elevation (6%) the most important predictors. Reclassifying the current model to a binary prediction estimated a range size of ~ 7.6 million km2, with the Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network covering 18% of habitat (~ 1.4 million km2) within this range. By 2090, range size was predicted to decrease on average by 14.4% under a higher emissions scenario, and 7.3% under a lower emissions scenario. The IBA network would cover 14% less area under a higher emissions scenario, and 3.3% less distribution area under a lower emissions scenario by 2090. Southern Amazonia is predicted to have the greatest reduction in range size and subsequently highest loss of Harpy Eagle habitat within the IBA network. Our work demonstrates that the combination of climate change and subsequent habitat loss may result in substantial losses in distribution for this raptor across the southern edge of its range.

Variable vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand lizards

AbstractAimThe primary drivers of species and population extirpations have been habitat loss, overexploitation and invasive species, but human‐mediated climate change is expected to be a major driver in future. To minimise biodiversity loss, conservation managers should identify species vulnerable to climate change and prioritise their protection. Here, we estimate climatic suitability for two species‐rich taxonomic groups, then use phylogenetic analyses to assess vulnerability to climate change.LocationAotearoa New Zealand (NZ).TaxaNZ lizards: diplodactylid geckos and eugongylinae skinks.MethodsWe built correlative species distribution models (SDMs) for NZ geckos and skinks to estimate climatic suitability under current climate and 2070 future climate scenarios. We then used Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models (BPMMs) to assess vulnerability for both groups with predictor variables for life‐history traits (body size and activity phase) and current distribution (elevation and latitude). We explored two scenarios: an unlimited dispersal scenario, where projections track climate, and a no‐dispersal scenario, where projections are restricted to areas currently identified as suitable.ResultsSDMs projected vulnerability to climate change for most modelled lizards. For species' ranges projected to decline in climatically suitable areas, average decreases were between 42% and 46% for geckos and 33% and 52% for skinks, although area did increase or remain stable for a minority of species. For the no‐dispersal scenario, the average decrease for geckos was 37%–52% and for skinks was 33%–52%. Our BPMMs showed phylogenetic signal in climate change vulnerability for both groups, with elevation increasing vulnerability for geckos, and body size reducing vulnerability for skinks.Main conclusionsNew Zealand lizards showed variable vulnerability to climate change, with most species' ranges predicted to decrease. For species whose suitable climatic space is projected to disappear from within their current range, managed relocation could be considered to establish populations in regions that will be suitable under future climates.

Predicting Present and Future Suitable Climate Spaces (Potential Distributions) for an Armillaria Root Disease Pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) and Its Host, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Under Changing Climates

Climate change and associated disturbances are expected to exacerbate forest root diseases because of altered distributions of existing and emerging forest pathogens and predisposition of trees due to climatic maladaptation and other disturbances. Predictions of suitable climate space (potential geographic distribution) for forest pathogens and host trees under contemporary and future climate scenarios will guide the selection of appropriate management practices by forest managers to minimize adverse impacts of forest disease within forest ecosystems. A native pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) that causes Armillaria root disease of conifers in North America is used to demonstrate bioclimatic models (maps) that predict suitable climate space for both pathogen and a primary host (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Douglas-fir) under contemporary and future climate scenarios. Armillaria root disease caused by A. solidipes is a primary cause of lost productivity and reduced carbon sequestration in coniferous forests of North America, and its impact is expected to increase under climate change due to tree maladaptation. Contemporary prediction models of suitable climate space were produced using Maximum Entropy algorithms that integrate climatic data with 382 georeferenced occurrence locations for DNA sequence-confirmed A. solidipes. A similar approach was used for visually identified P. menziesii from 11,826 georeferenced locations to predict its climatic requirements. From the contemporary models, data were extrapolated through future climate scenarios to forecast changes in geographic areas where native A. solidipes and P. menziesii will be climatically adapted. Armillaria root disease is expected to increase in geographic areas where predictions suggest A. solidipes is well adapted and P. menziesii is maladapted within its current range. By predicting areas at risk for Armillaria root disease, forest managers can deploy suitable strategies to reduce damage from the disease.

Climate change and the increase of human population will threaten conservation of Asian cobras

Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Because cobras often live near humans settlements, they are responsible for a large part of snakebite incidents and as such pose a challenge for public health systems. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is therefore important for both biological conservation and public health management. Here, we mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Our analyses reveal that cobras that are adapted to dry climates and inhabit islands have narrow climatic niches, while those of mainland species with larger geographic ranges are much wider. We also found a higher degree of fragmentation of future cobra distributions; within the next 50 years, Asian cobras will lose an average of around 60% of their current suitable climatic range. In the near future, Naja mandalayensis, N. sputatrix, N. samarensis, and N. philippinensis are likely to have no accessible suitable climate space left. Besides, a further increase of human populations in this region may also exponentially accelerate the effects of anthropogenic impacts. Solutions for conservation may involve awareness and appropriate use of law to overcome the rate of habitat degradation and the increase of animal trade of Asian cobras, while promoting investment on health systems to avoid snakebite fatalities.

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal.

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species' sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017-2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species' geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species' range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Dispersal syndromes are poorly associated with climatic niche differences in the Azorean seed plants

AbstractAimEnvironmental niche tracking is linked to the species ability to disperse. While well investigated on large spatial scales, dispersal constraints also influence small‐scale processes and may explain the difference between the potential and the realized niche of species at small scales. Here we test whether niche size and niche fill differ systematically according to dispersal syndrome within isolated oceanic islands. We expect that species with higher dispersal abilities (anemochorous or endozoochorous) will have a higher niche fill, despite their environmental niche size.LocationAzores archipelago.TaxonNative seed plants.MethodsWe combined a georeferenced database of the species distribution within the archipelago (Azorean Biodiversity Portal/GBIF) with an expert‐based dispersal syndrome categorization and a high‐resolution climatic grid (CIELO model). Using four climatic variables (Annual Mean Temperature, Mean Diurnal Range, Annual Precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality), we calculated a four‐dimensional hypervolume to estimate the niche size of each species. Niche fill was quantified as the suitable climatic space of the island that was occupied by the focal species.ResultsWe found a significant relationship between dispersal syndromes and niche size, and also between dispersal syndromes and niche fill. Such relationships presented no phylogenetic signal. Endozoochorous species display higher niche fill compared to epizoochorous and hydrochorous species, and larger niches than anemochorous and epizoochorous. Differences among the remaining groups are not significant for either niche size or for niche fill.Main conclusionsThe ability of a species to track its niche at small scales is not tightly related to its dispersal syndrome, although endozoochorous species track their niche more efficiently than the rest of groups. Despite being intuitively appealing, dispersal syndrome classifications might not be the most appropriate tools for understanding dispersal processes at small scales.

Globally rare oceanic-montane liverworts with disjunct distributions: evidence for long-distance dispersal

Disjunct distributions in bryophytes are well known, but when it comes to the mechanisms that have shaped these distributions, especially for apparently sterile species, the historical processes leading to inter-continental disjunctions remain enigmatic. In this study, we developed microsatellite markers to investigate the spatial distribution and extent of genotypic diversity of 147 Anastrophyllum alpinum samples collected from three populations each in Nepal and Scotland (UK). For a more general insight into genetic differences, sequence divergence in A. alpinum and eight other globally rare and disjunct oceanic-montane liverworts was also assessed. A nested allele distribution of Scottish populations of A. alpinum within the allele range of the Nepalese populations, and lower levels of genetic diversity within Scottish samples indicate that the Scottish populations likely have their origins in the Sino-Himalaya. The evidence for long-distance dispersal was supported by a lack of sequence divergence in chloroplast DNA between Scottish and Nepalese populations, with only a single substitution detected from 5160 bp of plastid sequence. Low levels of sequence divergence were also detected in species with similar distributions. While Scottish populations of A. alpinum do not appear to produce spores, they do still harbour a considerable genetic diversity. This indicates that sexual reproduction has been important at some point in their history. However, the current absence of evidence for sexual reproduction needs to be taken into account when designing conservation actions for these montane species, to ensure population maintenance and ability to track suitable climate and habitat space.

Climatic Constraints on Laggar Falcon (Falco jugger) Distribution Predicts Multidirectional Range Movements under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Determining a species' geographic range is important for conservation planning, yet this information is lacking for many raptors. In rapidly changing environments, defining current and predicting future distributions can help define priority areas for monitoring and research. The Laggar Falcon (Falco jugger) is a rare and understudied raptor resident across the Indian subcontinent, categorized as Near Threatened, with populations potentially in rapid decline. Using a Species Distribution Modelling framework we update current distribution and predict future distribution based on two future climate change scenarios for 2050. Our current distribution model had high predictive accuracy, and defined core areas of high climatic suitability in western India and southeastern Pakistan. Three bioclimatic variables contributed 79.9% to model prediction: mean temperature of the wettest quarter (50.1%), precipitation seasonality (17.6%), and precipitation in the driest month (12.2%). Projecting our model into climate change scenarios for 2050 resulted in up to 6% mean gain in suitable climate space for a lower emission scenario, but a 5% mean loss in suitable climate by 2050 in a high emissions scenario. All future predictive models showed similar multidirectional range movements within the current predicted core range. Based on these results, Laggar Falcon distribution may not be adversely affected by climate change. We recommend directed population surveys and monitoring based on current model predictions of areas of highest climate suitability, which are likely where Laggar Falcons will persist into the near future. Regular monitoring and research will enhance our knowledge for this raptor, while contributing further data to improve our model predictions.

Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses reveal three distinct lineages of the invasive brown root-rot pathogen, Phellinus noxius, and bioclimatic modeling predicts differences in associated climate niches

Phellinus noxius, the cause of brown root-rot disease, is an invasive fungal pathogen that causes a white rot among woody plants in Asia, Oceania, and Africa. Because the origin and diversity of this pathogen are unknown, it is difficult to predict its behavior and invasive capacity, especially under future climate-change scenarios. We characterized genetic relationships and ecological differences among P. noxius lineages across eastern Asia and Oceania to better understand evolutionary responses of the pathogen to environmental changes. Sequences of four loci (nuclear large subunit, internal transcribed spacers, partial RNA polymerase II, and partial translation elongation factor – 1 alpha) from 95 P. noxius isolates were used for genetic analyses. Our analyses revealed three genetically distinct lineages of P. noxius: 1) eastern Asia (Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Malaysia); 2) western Oceania/Japan/Taiwan (including Australia, Palau, Guam, Saipan, Yap, Pohnpei, and Kosrae) with some isolates from Japan and Taiwan; and 3) a distinct group from American Samoa. Population genetic analyses highlighted admixture and migration among the three lineages. Climate-based, species distribution models were used to predict ecological patterns of P. noxius for two genetic lineages: eastern Asia and western Oceania/Japan/Taiwan. Contemporary bioclimatic models depicted potential areas at high risk for P. noxius invasion, and predicted that suitable climate space (potential distribution) is lineage specific. Trade of important economic crops worldwide coupled with changing climates could exacerbate the spread of P. noxius into new geographic areas with suitable habitats for brown root-rot disease.

Climatic Drivers of Plant Species Distributions Across Spatial Grains in Southern Africa Tropical Forests

Understanding the importance of climate in determining species distribution and how it might change as a function of spatial grain size is a vital issue for species distribution modelling (SDM), yet it is often not accounted for in models and has not been extensively addressed in under sampled areas in tropical forests. Using extensive field sampled vegetation plots data on species occurrences and current climate conditions we modelled 150 plant species in the Okavango River Basin, to map their current projected suitable climate space at 2km2, 5km2, 10km2, 20km2 and 50km2 pixel resolution. Relationships between the variable importance scores and variable identity and their interaction with predictor spatial grain were investigated using Generalised Linear Models and post-hoc analysis. We found variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation variables across the spatial grains. The importance of the determinants of species distribution may change between species but such changes are less determined by the predictor’s spatial grain. Potential evapotranspiration consistently exhibited the greatest influence in determining species and richness distribution across spatial grains. We found that the spatial grain of predictors had no effect on the model predictive power and that varying predictor spatial grains had only negligible effects on the model performance measured by AUC and Kappa statistics. The spatial grains of climatic predictors used showed no effect on species richness pattern either. Our results indicate that in areas with relatively low topographic variation, modelling at coarse spatial grain for conservation purposes can be acceptable. Moreover, we show that in tropical areas that have comparatively homogeneous climatic conditions along large spatial extents the variable importance is not influenced by predictor spatial grain. For projections of contemporary species suitable climate space in relatively flat and topographically homogeneous areas which often have a climatically homogenous landscape, more attention must be given to the identity of the selected predictor variables for modelling species distributions than to their spatial grain size. We suggest that in species distribution modelling for conservation planning, assessment of the input datasets spatial grain should be informed and guided by knowledge of the landscape level topographic conditions, as protocol.

Population analysis reveals genetic structure of an invasive agricultural thrips pest related to invasion of greenhouses and suitable climatic space.

Biological invasions of pests into climatically unsuitable areas can be facilitated by human‐regulated environments, in which case there may be an impact on genetic structure through population processes and/or adaptation. Here, we investigated the population genetic structure of an invasive agricultural pest, Thrips palmi, in China, which has expanded its distribution range through using greenhouses. Early invaded populations showed a relatively higher level of genetic diversity than recently expanded greenhouse populations. Strong population genetic structure corresponded to a pattern of isolation by distance, with no recent gene flow and low historical gene flow among populations, reflecting limited ongoing dispersal. A genetic signature of population expansion was detected in early invaded populations and three northern populations from greenhouses, suggesting that the greenhouse environments facilitated expansion of this species. Redundancy analysis showed that the independent effects of environment and geography could explain 51.68% and 32.06% of the genetic variance, respectively. These findings point to climate‐ and greenhouse‐related spatial expansion, with the potential for adaptation by T. palmi. They emphasize the contribution of human‐regulated environments on the successes of this invasive species, a situation likely to apply to other invasive species that use greenhouse environments.

Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

This paper provides an overview of bioclimatic models applied to lichen species, supporting their potential use in this context as indicators of climate change risk. First, it provides a brief summary of climate change risk, pointing to the relevance of lichens as a topic area. Second, it reviews the past use of lichen bioclimatic models, applied for a range of purposes with respect to baseline climate, and the application of data sources, statistical methods, model extents and resolution and choice of predictor variables. Third, it explores additional challenges to the use of lichen bioclimatic models, including: 1. The assumption of climatically controlled lichen distributions, 2. The projection to climate change scenarios, and 3. The issue of nonanalogue climates and model transferability. Fourth, the paper provides a reminder that bioclimatic models estimate change in the extent or range of a species suitable climate space, and that an outcome will be determined by vulnerability responses, including potential for migration, adaptation, and acclimation, within the context of landscape habitat quality. The degree of exposure to climate change, estimated using bioclimatic models, can help to inform an understanding of whether vulnerability responses are sufficient for species resilience. Fifth, the paper draws conclusions based on its overview, highlighting the relevance of bioclimatic models to conservation, support received from observational data, and pointing the way towards mechanistic approaches that align with field-scale climate change experiments.