Abstract
Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Because cobras often live near humans settlements, they are responsible for a large part of snakebite incidents and as such pose a challenge for public health systems. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is therefore important for both biological conservation and public health management. Here, we mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Our analyses reveal that cobras that are adapted to dry climates and inhabit islands have narrow climatic niches, while those of mainland species with larger geographic ranges are much wider. We also found a higher degree of fragmentation of future cobra distributions; within the next 50 years, Asian cobras will lose an average of around 60% of their current suitable climatic range. In the near future, Naja mandalayensis, N. sputatrix, N. samarensis, and N. philippinensis are likely to have no accessible suitable climate space left. Besides, a further increase of human populations in this region may also exponentially accelerate the effects of anthropogenic impacts. Solutions for conservation may involve awareness and appropriate use of law to overcome the rate of habitat degradation and the increase of animal trade of Asian cobras, while promoting investment on health systems to avoid snakebite fatalities.
Highlights
Asian cobras are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia
Our results show that the present and future potential climatic niche of each studied cobra species is highly discontinued and fragmented (Figs. 1 and 2, Supplementary Figure)
The species-level analysis reveals that the present climatic niche of Naja naja is the widest among all studied species, followed by N. kaouthia and N. oxiana (Fig. 1c,e,f)
Summary
Asian cobras (genus Naja) are venomous snakes distributed from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. In the light of growing human populations, correctly mapping the present and future ranges of Asian cobras is important for both biological conservation and public health management. We mapped the potential climatic niches of ten Asian cobra species for both the present and the future, with the aim to quantify changes in climate and human population densities relative to their current and future ranges. Degradation of natural habitats is considered the main responsible factor for the decline[2], which involves geographic shifts caused by climate change, and human impact resulting in the gradual extinctions of local populations[3,4,5,6], leaving snake species vulnerable due to their poor dispersal ability[7]. Formulating proper conservation strategies can be challenging in areas where local people show profound, long established prejudice against cobras and other snakes
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