Successful Decision Research Articles

A new classification tree method with interaction detection capability

A new classification tree algorithm is presented. It has a novel variable selection algorithm that can effectively detect interactions. The algorithm uses a look-ahead approach that considers not only the significance at the current node, but also the significance at child nodes to detect the interaction. It is also different from other classification tree methods in that it finds the splitting point using the odds ratio. To evaluate the predictive performance of the newly proposed tree algorithm, an empirical study of 27 real or artificial data sets is performed. As a result of the experiment, the proposed algorithm shows at least similar or significantly better performance than the well-known and successful decision tree methods: Ctree, CART and CRUISE.

Studies in Ecological Rationality.

Ecological rationality represents an alternative to classic frameworks of rationality. Extending on Herbert Simon's concept of bounded rationality, it holds that cognitive processes, including simple heuristics, are not per se rational or irrational, but that their success rests on their degree of fit to relevant environmental structures. The key is therefore to understand how cognitive and environmental structures slot together. In recent years, a growing set of analyses of heuristic-environment systems has deepened the understanding of the human mind and how boundedly rational heuristics can result in successful decision making. This article is concerned with three conceptual challenges in the study of ecological rationality. First, do heuristics also succeed in dynamic contexts involving competitive agents? Second, can the mind adapt to environmental structures via an unsupervised learning process? Third, how can research go beyond mere descriptions of environmental structures to develop theories of the mechanisms that give rise to those structures? In addressing these questions, we illustrate that a successful theory of rationality will focus on the adaptive aspects of the mind and will need to account for three components: the mind's information processing, the environment to which the mind adapts, and the intersection between the environment and the mind.

Kilka uwag co do zasadności utrzymywania w polskim systemie prawnym instytucji przymusowej restrukturyzacji spółdzielczych kas oszczędnościowo-kredytowych

The paper reflects on mutual relationship between the restructuring of Polish cooperative savings and credit unions (the “credit unions” or SKOK, as the Polish abbreviation of the entities reads) regulated primarily by the Act of 5 November, 2009 on Cooperative Savings and Credit Unions (the „Credit Union Act”), which sets out the supervisory powers of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority in that respect, and the legal institution of credit union resolution, as governed by the Act of 10 June, 2016 on the Bank Guarantee Fund (the “BGF Act”), with the powers of the Bank Guarantee Fund outlined in it. Introduced in 2013 into the Credit Union Act, the legal architecture of a take-over of a credit union or its selected right and liabilities by another credit union or bank following a decision of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (the main legal form of credit union restructuring), derives from the legislation on (orderly) resolution, developed at the European level and implemented into the Polish legal system by means of the BGF Act, in 2016. In carrying out this transformation, the Polish legislator decided to apply the legal institution of resolution to the country’ s credit unions even though the latter are exempt from the implemented Directive establishing a framework for the recovery and resolution of credit institutions and investment firms. An analysis of the compared pieces of legislation leads to the conclusion that the power to decide on a take-over of a credit union or its selected rights and liabilities by another credit union or bank, granted to the Polish Financial Supervision Authority by the legislator, makes it always possible to PFSA, with regard to credit unions, to achieve the objectives of orderly resolution through the use of that very supervisory measure. The irreversibility of the decision, which can be appealed against only under a special procedure highly limiting the applicants’ rights, and its financial consequences including the allocation of the acquired entity’s own funds for covering losses, all that gives the decision the air of the decisions made in the context of the orderly resolution process. Meanwhile, the BGF Act provides that resolution instruments may only be applied only if the intended objective cannot be achieved by means of supervisory measures. Such a situation casts doubts, even in theoretical terms, as to the applicability of resolution instruments to credit unions. The doubts are further exacerbated by practical experience. The latter shows that BFG transferred funds to support credit union restructuring as early as in 2014, under the government’s credit union orderly resolution programme accepted by successive decisions of the European Commission, precisely in the cases where the Polish Financial Supervision Authority decided on credit unions’ take-over by banks pursuant to Article 74c of the Credit Union Act.

Decision Making in the Petroleum Industry in Africa

Decision making is a multidimensional activity. Small and medium-sized petroleum exploration companies operating in Africa have their nuances. This exploratory case study looks at petroleum companies to determine how the decision-makers make decisions and the impact of these decisions. Using eight in-depth interviews, three themes emerged: 1) establishing criteria for selecting an area to explore is a vital part of decision making and stems from a clear corporate strategy, 2) timing of making decisions seems to be the most important criteria in making decisions for petroleum companies as it has the greatest impact on projects being pursued, 3) relationships the companies have, are required to have, or plan to have with other companies or governments threads all decision making. Having a mutually beneficial relationship with partners helps to make decision making easier. A company's continued existence and ability to pursue its corporate strategy is considered a successful decision. Traditional views of decisions on a project-by-project basis may not be appreciating the full picture.

The concept of smart city and the perceptions of urban inhabitants: a case study from Žilina, Slovakia

The smart city concept is a comprehensive approach to the functioning of the urban region. It concerns various areas of life such as culture, infrastructure, environment, energy, and social services. Public perceptions of the smart city concept are not commonly addressed. The aim of this paper is to examine perceptions of the smart city concept among inhabitants, doing so through a case study focusing on the city of Žilina in Slovakia. The methodology that the researchers applied includes primary research and surveys as well as secondary research. Based on the analysis of the environment and the results of the survey, opportunities for the development of a ‘Smart City Žilina’ concept are identified. There is a growing interest in green solutions among the inhabitants of Žilina. A significant number of respondents indicated their support for intelligent waste collection and renewable energy sources. And they were also supportive of green roofs. The update of the strategy must consider a number of steps in waste management, from collection to transport, with a view to the overall recovery of the waste generated. As part of the smart city concept and projects, the public administration and the municipality must communicate effectively with the public. This will require specific approaches and tactical decisions for optimal success.

Knowledge and attitudes of Saudi medical laboratory professionals concerning non-pathological factors influencing test results

Introduction: Successful medical decisions are highly reliant on medical laboratory results; as such, laboratory results are essential to patient health management, and errors in those results may lead to serious complications and death. The aim of the present study was to assess the knowledge of medical laboratory practitioners in Saudi Arabia regarding factors that may influence medical laboratory testing results and the correct actions for troubleshooting. Methods: A total of 256 practitioners participated, representing diverse qualifications and various healthcare sectors. The study utilized a pretested questionnaire comprised of three sections: socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge, and attitudes. Results: The responses demonstrated participants to possess outstanding knowledge of factors that may affect laboratory test results, including biological and pathological factors, diet, and personal habits. Furthermore, participants demonstrated satisfactory attitudes toward such factors. Conclusions: Thus, this study reveals a magnificent image concerning Saudi practitioners’ knowledge and capacity for suitable actions given unexpected test results, and hence their ability to provide correct healthcare services. This constitutes an acceptable overview, particularly as a first pass; nonetheless, more studies on larger cohorts remain required.

Reflections on the Context of the Change of War

Abstract In order to understand and explain the changes of war in a very complex operational environment and in a continuous transformation, we must anticipate, render in an abstract form and create solutions for successful decisions. The estimates of this communication resulted from a combined analysis of the conditions of war without winners and losers, given that humanity has evolved towards modernity from the perspective of changing the forms of consciousness, reshaping relationships and social structures, technological developments, or reporting the individual to the environment around him. In this context, identifying the relationships between the phenomenon of war and the other aspects (domains) of social life becomes a real challenge.

Interactive Behavior Prediction for Heterogeneous Traffic Participants in the Urban Road: A Graph-Neural-Network-Based Multitask Learning Framework

Effectively predicting interactive behaviors of traffic participants in the urban road is the key to successful decision-making and motion planning of intelligent vehicles. In this article, based on the data collected from vehicle on-board sensors, a graph-neural-network-based multitask learning framework (GNN-MTLF) is proposed to accurately predict trajectories of traffic participants with interactive behaviors. The interactive behavior considered in this research includes interactive events and trajectories that are modeled as spatial-temporal graphs using the GNN. Under the GNN-MTLF, the prediction process contains two main parts: recognition of interactive events and prediction of interactive trajectories. An integrated loss function is designed for multitask learning with the purpose of prediction and recognition. The proposed framework is verified using naturalistic driving data in the urban road. Experimental results show a superior performance of the GNN-MTLF compared to baseline methods and the potential for improving the road mobility.

Cognitive Control of Working Memory: A Model-Based Approach.

Working memory (WM)-based decision making depends on a number of cognitive control processes that control the flow of information into and out of WM and ensure that only relevant information is held active in WM’s limited-capacity store. Although necessary for successful decision making, recent work has shown that these control processes impose performance costs on both the speed and accuracy of WM-based decisions. Using the reference-back task as a benchmark measure of WM control, we conducted evidence accumulation modeling to test several competing explanations for six benchmark empirical performance costs. Costs were driven by a combination of processes running outside of the decision stage (longer non-decision time) and inhibition of the prepotent response (lower drift rates) in trials requiring WM control. Individuals also set more cautious response thresholds when expecting to update WM with new information versus maintain existing information. We discuss the promise of this approach for understanding cognitive control in WM-based decision making.

Gender, education, and farm succession in Western Paraná State, Brazil

Smallholder agriculture plays a key role to promote food security in Brazil. Population ageing together with fertility decline and expanded educational opportunities for youth present challenges for the continuation of family agriculture across generations, and those challenges are especially difficult for smallholder farmers. This paper examines farm succession decisions in Western Paraná, Brazil using survey data collected through face-to-face interviews with 205 soybean farmers chosen randomly to be representative of the region’s soybean farmers. Approximately 64% of the soybean farmers reported planning to pass on their farm business to the next generation. Traditional gender norms hinder succession plans. The empirical analysis using linear probability models shows that the probability of succession decreases by 37 ppts if the households do not have any male children. Farms with more than 72 ha are more likely to have a family successor than smaller farms. Farmers with college education are less likely to pass on their farms to their children than farmers with less education. Participation in federal government programs that provide subsidized credit such as Pronaf, which is aimed at smallholders, is associated with a higher probability of succession to a son or daughter. Government programs that provide subsidized credit and encourage families to make succession plans might increase succession rates. In an environment of decreasing fertility, adhering to traditional gender roles limits the probability that a farm will be continued successfully across generations.

Eye movements reflect adaptive predictions and predictive precision.

Successful decision-making depends on the ability to form predictions about uncertain future events. Existing evidence suggests predictive representations are not limited to point estimates but also include information about the associated level of predictive uncertainty. Estimates of predictive uncertainty have an important role in governing the rate at which beliefs are updated in response to new observations. It is not yet known, however, whether the same form of uncertainty-modulated learning occurs naturally and spontaneously when there is no task requirement to express predictions explicitly. Here, we used a gaze-based predictive inference paradigm to show that (a) predictive inference manifested in spontaneous gaze dynamics, (b) feedback-driven updating of spontaneous gaze-based predictions reflected adaptation to environmental statistics, and (c) anticipatory gaze variability tracked predictive uncertainty in an event-by-event manner. Our results demonstrate that sophisticated predictive inference can occur spontaneously and that oculomotor behavior can provide a multidimensional readout of internal predictive beliefs. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Does the U.S. Navy's reliance on objective standards prevent discrimination in promotions and retentions?

To prevent discrimination, the U.S. Navy enlisted-personnel promotion process relies primarily on objective measures. However, it also uses the subjective opinion of a sailor’s superior. The Navy’s promotion and retention process involves two successive decisions: The Navy decides whether to promote an individual, and conditional on that decision, the sailor decides whether to stay. Using estimates of these correlated decision-making processes, we find that during 1997–2008, Blacks and Hispanics were less likely to be promoted than Whites, especially during wartime. The Navy’s decision-making affects Blacks’ differential promotion rates by twice as much as differences in the groups’ characteristics. However, Nonwhite retention probabilities, even when not promoted, are higher than for Whites, in part because they have fewer opportunities in the civilian market. Females have lower promotion rates than males and slightly lower retention rates during wartime.

Both Default and Multiple-Demand Regions Represent Semantic Goal Information.

We used a semantic feature-matching task combined with multivoxel pattern decoding to test contrasting accounts of the role of the default mode network (DMN) in cognitive flexibility. By one view, DMN and multiple-demand cortex have opposing roles in cognition, with DMN and multiple-demand regions within the dorsal attention network (DAN) supporting internal and external cognition, respectively. Consequently, while multiple-demand regions can decode current goal information, semantically relevant DMN regions might decode conceptual similarity regardless of task demands. Alternatively, DMN regions, like multiple-demand cortex, might show sensitivity to changing task demands, since both networks dynamically alter their patterns of connectivity depending on the context. Our task required human participants (any sex) to integrate conceptual knowledge with changing task goals, such that successive decisions were based on different features of the items (color, shape, and size). This allowed us to simultaneously decode semantic category and current goal information using whole-brain searchlight decoding. As expected, multiple-demand cortex, including DAN and frontoparietal control network, represented information about currently relevant conceptual features. Similar decoding results were found in DMN, including in angular gyrus and posterior cingulate cortex, indicating that DMN and multiple-demand regions can support the same function rather than being strictly competitive. Semantic category could be decoded in lateral occipital cortex independently of task demands, but not in most regions of DMN. Conceptual information related to the current goal dominates the multivariate response within DMN, which supports flexible retrieval by modulating its response to suit the task demands, alongside regions of multiple-demand cortex.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT We tested contrasting accounts of default mode network (DMN) function using multivoxel pattern analysis. By one view, semantically relevant parts of DMN represent conceptual similarity, regardless of task context. By an alternative view, DMN tracks changing task demands. Our semantic feature-matching task required participants to integrate conceptual knowledge with task goals, such that successive decisions were based on different features of the items. We demonstrate that DMN regions can decode the current goal, as it is applied, alongside multiple-demand regions traditionally associated with cognitive control, speaking to how DMN supports flexible cognition.

Exploring the Use of Ecosystem Services Conceptual Models to Account for the Benefits of Public Lands: An Example from National Forest Planning in the United States

A shared understanding of the benefits and tradeoffs to people from alternative land management strategies is critical to successful decision-making for managing public lands and fostering shared stewardship. This study describes an approach for identifying and monitoring the types of resource benefits and tradeoffs considered in National Forest planning in the United States under the 2012 Planning Rule and demonstrates the use of tools for conceptualizing the production of ecosystem services and benefits from alternative land management strategies. Efforts to apply these tools through workshops and engagement exercises provide opportunities to explore and highlight measures, indicators, and data sources for characterizing benefits and tradeoffs in collaborative environments involving interdisciplinary planning teams. Conceptual modeling tools are applied to a case study examining the social and economic benefits of recreation on the Ashley National Forest. The case study illustrates how these types of tools facilitate dialog for planning teams to discuss alternatives and key ecosystem service outcomes, create easy to interpret visuals that map details in plans, and provide a basis for selecting ecosystem service (socio-economic) metrics. These metrics can be used to enhance environmental impact analysis, and help satisfy the goals of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the 2012 Planning Rule, and shared stewardship initiatives. The systematic consideration of ecosystem services outcomes and metrics supported by this approach enhanced dialog between members of the Forest planning team, allowed for a more transparent process in identification of key linkages and outcomes, and identified impacts and outcomes that may not have been apparent to the sociologist who is lacking the resource specific expertise of these participants. As a result, the use of the Ecosystem Service Conceptual Model (ESCM) process may result in reduced time for internal reviews and greater comprehension of anticipated outcomes and impacts of proposed management in the plan revision Environmental Impact Statement amongst the planning team.

Abstract PS4-04: Molecular subtyping by BluePrint improves prediction of treatment responses and survival outcomes in patients with discordant clinical and genomic classification

Abstract Background: The risk of distant recurrence gene signature, MammaPrint (MP), together with the molecular subtyping gene signature, BluePrint (BP), stratifies breast tumors into Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2, and Basal subtypes, independent of immunohistochemistry (IHC) or fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) expression. In the Neoadjuvant Breast Registry Symphony Trial (NBRST), MP and BP identified patients likely to respond to neoadjuvant treatment with higher accuracy compared to conventional methods. Here, we report 5-year follow up (FU) data in breast cancer (BC) patients from the NBRST registry with discordant clinical and genomic subtyping.Methods: This prospective study enrolled 1072 early-stage BC patients from 2009-2014 who received MP and BP testing. Patients received neoadjuvant therapy following standard of care and consented to 5 years post-surgery FU. IHC determined hormone receptor (HR) status, including ER and PR, and IHC and/or FISH determined HER2 status. Median FU for distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) was 4.6 and 5 years, respectively. Differences in DMFS and OS was assessed by Kaplan Meier analysis and log-rank test.Results: Overall, BP reclassified 22% of tumors into different molecular subtypes compared to IHC/FISH (Table). BP reclassified 17% of ER+HER2- tumors as BP Basal, with higher pathological complete response (pCR) rates compared to ER+/BP Luminal tumors (36% vs. 4%). ER+/BP Basal patients had similar pCR rates as triple negative BC (TNBC)/BP Basal patients (36% vs. 37%) following neoadjuvant treatment, and pCR correlated with improved survival outcomes. The 5-year DMFS and OS probabilities were lower in ER+/BP Basal patients compared to TNBC/BP Basal patients and were substantially lower compared to ER+/BP Luminal patients (P < 0.001). There were 106 HR-HER2+ patients, of whom BP reclassified 23.6% to Basal and 2.8% as Luminal B; the remaining 73.6% were confirmed HER2 by BP. The 5-year DMFS and OS probabilities were worse in HER2+/BP Basal patients compared to HER2+/BP HER2 patients. Of 142 triple positive (TP, ER+PR+HER2+) patients, BP classified 55% as Luminal, 39% as HER2, and 6% as Basal, with higher pCR rates observed in BP Basal and BP HER2 tumors compared to BP Luminal. The 5-year DMFS and OS probabilities were substantially lower in TP/BP Basal patients compared to TP/BP HER2 and TP/BP Luminal patients (P < 0.05 and P < 0.04). Of clinical HER2+ patients (HR+ or HR-) that received pertuzumab, patients that reclassified as BP Basal had worse OS compared to BP HER2 patients (P < 0.04).Conclusion: ER+HER2- and HER2+ patients that reclassified as BP Basal are more likely to achieve pCR and have improved survival, demonstrating the clinical utility of BP in the neoadjuvant setting. These patients may benefit from optimized chemotherapy used for TNBC, including novel emerging treatments such as PD-1 and PARP1 inhibitors, in addition to HER2-targeted therapy. Furthermore, HER2+ tumors that were confirmed HER2 by BP may have high response rates to regimens containing TDM-1. Lastly, BP identified a subgroup of triple positive BC patients, who reclassified as BP Luminal, that may avoid overtreatment. Overall, molecular subtyping using MP and BP is more accurate in stratifying patients and predicting treatment responses and 5-year disease outcomes than conventional methods and thus, facilitates successful treatment decisions. Clinical subtypeFrequency of BP classificationBluePrint subtypepCR%5-yr DMFS (95% CI)5-yr OS (95% CI)TNBC (n=236)0.42% (1/236)Luminal A100% (1/1)N/AN/A2.54% (6/236)Luminal B16.67% (1/6)N/AN/A1.27% (3/236)HER233.33% (1/3)N/AN/A95.76% (226/236)Basal36.73% (83/226)100% (pCR)100% (pCR)60.5% (50.5-69.1)(non-PCR)64.3%(52.1-71.2) (non-PCR)ER+HER2- (n=520)28.84% (152/520)Luminal A1.97% (3/152)91.1% (84.0-95.2)94.6% (88.3-97.6)52.37% (276/520)Luminal B5.43% (15/276)75.2% (69.0-80.4)84.5% (79.0-88.7)1.33% (7/520)HER214.29% (1/7)N/AN/A17.46% (92/520)Basal35.9%(33/92)84.1% (67.8-92.5) (pCR)86.3% (70.1-94.1) (pCR)54.6% (42.0-65.5) (non-pCR)57% (43.7-68.2) (non-pCR)HR-HER2+ (n=106)2.83% (3/106)Luminal B66.67% (2/3)100%100%73.59% (78/106)HER269% (54/78)82.8% (69.9-90.5)88.6% (76.0-94.8)23.58% (25/106)Basal40% (10/25)79.0% (52.5-91.7)79.0% (52.5-91.7)Triple Positive (n=142)12.68% (18/142)Luminal A22.22% (4/18)88.8% (76.5-94.8)94.5% (83.8-98.2)42.25% (60/142)Luminal B11.67%(7/60)38.73% (55/142)HER244.44% (24/55)87.5% (72.0-94.7)97.9% (83.8-98.2)6.34% (9/142)Basal55.56%(5/9)62.5% (22.9-86.1)70.0% (22.5-91.8)HER2+ (HR+ or HR-)treated with pertuzumab (n=105)28.6%(30/105)Luminal37% (11/30)84.7% (63.8-94.1)92.2%(71.8-98.0)57%(60/105)HER282% (49/60)91.4% (78.3-96.8)92.9%(79.2-97.7)14%(15/105)Basal40% (6/15)66.0%(31.1-86.3)64.0% (29.1-85.1) Citation Format: Pat Whitworth, James Pellicane, Jr, Paul Baron, Peter Beitsch, Laura Lee, Michael Rotkis, Angela Mislowsky, Carrie Dul, Charles Nash, Bichlien Nguyen, Mary Murray, Paul Richards, Mark Gittleman, Stephanie Akbari, Shiyu Wang, Andrea Menicucci, Erin B Yoder, Lisa Blumencranz, William Audeh. Molecular subtyping by BluePrint improves prediction of treatment responses and survival outcomes in patients with discordant clinical and genomic classification [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2020 San Antonio Breast Cancer Virtual Symposium; 2020 Dec 8-11; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS4-04.

Cannot give you because of living on the top of a castle: CEOs, corporate philanthropy and firm age

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the role of firm age in the relationship between CEO characteristics (measured by founder status and civic engagement) and the level of corporate philanthropy which is one of the important components of corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices (Carroll, 1991).Design/methodology/approachDrawing from upper echelons theory, this study argues that firm age functions as a barrier that limits the relationship between CEO characteristics and the level of corporate philanthropy. Moderated regression analysis (MRA) was used to analyze data from 146 publicly traded US firms between 2010 and 2017.FindingsThis study verified that there is a significantly positive relationship between CEO civic engagement and the level of corporate philanthropy although the relationship between CEO founder status and the level of corporate philanthropy was not found to be significant. Specifically, the relationship between CEO characteristics and the level of corporate philanthropy was weaker as firms get older. Overall, the results indicate that the organizational inertia of older firms can restrict the effect of CEO characteristics on corporate philanthropy.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides new insight into the underlying mechanisms between CEOs and firm age. This study also suggests that CEOs interpret corporate philanthropy as an important part of their civic engagement which broadly supports business legitimacy for their firm.Practical implicationsThis study provides lessons for executive selection and succession decisions toward CSR strategies. Specifically, this study provides a practical foundation of how executives’ civic engagement can be related to corporate philanthropy as an important dimension of CSR practices. Furthermore, this study suggests that shareholders pay more attention to the ultimate decision-maker, the CEO, in an organization as his or her background characteristics can reflect a firm’s social responsibility initiatives, including corporate philanthropy.Originality/valueThis study contributes to on-going scholarly work in the field of strategic leadership and corporate philanthropy literature. In addition, this study provides empirical evidence to the nature of scholarly conversations regarding the role of firm age in shaping the relationship between CEO characteristics and corporate philanthropy.

Multi-Criteria, Co-Evolutionary Charging Behavior: An Agent-Based Simulation of Urban Electromobility

In order to electrify the transport sector, scores of charging stations are needed to incentivize people to buy electric vehicles. In urban areas with a high charging demand and little space, decision-makers are in need of planning tools that enable them to efficiently allocate financial and organizational resources to the promotion of electromobility. As with many other city planning tasks, simulations foster successful decision-making. This article presents a novel agent-based simulation framework for urban electromobility aimed at the analysis of charging station utilization and user behavior. The approach presented here employs a novel co-evolutionary learning model for adaptive charging behavior. The simulation framework is tested and verified by means of a case study conducted in the city of Munich. The case study shows that the presented approach realistically reproduces charging behavior and spatio-temporal charger utilization.

Комп’ютерне моделювання в органах управління розвідки для аналізу та обробки даних

At present time, intelligence agencies receive a large amount of information about the enemy, which must be processed, summarized, analyzed, and reported to decision-makers. Most of this information is entered into computer programs for further processing and analysis. During this process, a large amount of time is spent on the analysis of data about the enemy for further decision-making.Currently, the simulation method is used to predict or reconstruct changes in certain entities of the programs of their computer models. It is a formal method that uses manipulated symbols but does not take into account the possible manifestations of the intellectual activity of certain subjects that affect the entities they study.But the formal method of modeling does not allow analyzing the enemy’s actions. This requires an effective way to imagine and analyze the “physical consequences” of the project before setting objectives. To improve the information analysis and processing, it is necessary to consider the use of information technologies with the system modeling that takes into account some indicators and provide the possibility for further forecasting. The integration of technology in intelligence agencies for rapid analysis, data processing, and successful decision-making is needed today.It is proposed for intelligence agencies to develop programs with the possibilities of visual computer modeling where the location and composition of enemy units toked into account. Information about the enemy are caused in different colors, having an information about its approximate composition, the software arranges enemy units considering with the nature of the terrain, number and distances between units with predicted ways of possible advancement or approaches.To provide a deeper understanding and analysis of the information, recommendations are provided for the use of computer modeling in intelligence agencies.

Artificial Neural Network Fault Detection For Transmission Line Protection.(Dept.E)

The artificial neural network is a powerful tool for the detection of the transmission line faults due to its ability to differentiate between various patterns. In this paper, simulation of power system under normal and faulty conditions are carried out using electromagnetic transient program. The voltage and current waveforms at the relay location for normal and fault conditions are extracted. The waveforms obtained are preprocessed in order to improve the performance of the neural network used. Three neural networks are built one for fault detection, one for fault type and a third for fault location. The proposed technique is tested with different types of faults and successive decision was reached.

Monetary Valuation of Flood Protection Ecosystem Service Based on Hydrological Modelling and Avoided Damage Costs. An Example from the Čierny Hron River Basin, Slovakia

Flood protection is considered one of the crucial regulating ecosystem services due to climate change and extreme weather events. As an ecosystem service, it combines the results of hydrological and ecosystem research and their implementation into land management and/or planning processes including several formally separated economic sectors. As managerial and economic interests often diverge, successful decision-making requires a common denominator in form of monetary valuation of competing trade-offs. In this paper, a methodical approach based on the monetary value of the ecosystem service provided by the ecosystem corresponding to its actual share in flood regulating processes and the value of the property protected by this service was developed and demonstrated based on an example of a medium size mountain basin (290 ha). Hydrological modelling methods (SWAT, HEC-RAS) were applied for assessing the extent of floods with different rainfalls and land uses. The rainfall threshold value that would cause flooding with the current land use but that would be safely drained if the basin was covered completely by forest was estimated. The cost of the flood protection ecosystem service was assessed by the method of non-market monetary value for estimating avoided damage costs of endangered infrastructure and calculated both for the current and hypothetical land use. The results identify areas that are crucial for water retention and that deserve greater attention in management. In addition, the monetary valuation of flood protection provided by the current but also by hypothetical land uses enables competent and well-formulated decision-making processes.