Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream Research Articles

Unprecedented hot weather diagnosis in India during March-April 2022

March and April 2022 months were peculiar with respect to the high temperatures breaking long-period records for India. This study attempts to explain the different causative meteorological factors that led to unprecedented hot weather during the March and April months of 2022. It is interestingly seen in the analysis that the high surface temperature anomaly for the month of March over the North Pole was one of the important factors that hindered the southward progression of the sub-tropical westerly jet stream over India and caused a lesser number of western disturbances to cross over the Indian region. Also, the anticyclonic circulation in the mid-tropospheric levels caused warming over central Pakistan and adjoining regions which caused the high temperatures over Indian regions due to temperature advection by northwesterly winds.

Comparative analysis of the rapid intensification of two super cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea

A comparative analysis of the rapid intensification (RI) of super cyclonic storms Chapala (2015) and Kyarr (2019) in the Arabian Sea is conducted using the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone data, microwave sounding images, the NOAA OISST data and the ERA5 reanalysis data. Results show that the subtropical westerly jet stream and the Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation led to the formation of an obvious double-channel outflow from the northern and southern sides of the two storm centers, and the substantial inflow appeared at the eastern boundary layer of both storms. These promoted the vertical ascent motion and release of the latent heat of condensation. A warm sea surface is a necessary but not dominant factor for the RI of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea. During the RI of Chapala and Kyarr, the deep vertical wind shear was less than 10 m s−1; moreover, the mid-level humidity conditions favored the RI of the two cyclonic storms. Chapala had a single warm core, whereas Kyarr had double warm cores in the vertical direction. The impacts of the latent heat of fusion is more obvious for Chapala, and the potential vorticity in its inner core increases from 4.4 PVU to 8.8 PVU, whereas the potential vorticity and vorticity in the inner core of Kyarr do not change significantly. Microwave detection images show that both Chapala and Kyarr were accompanied by the formation of eyewalls during the RI phase, and the radius of maximum wind decreased and the maximum wind speed increased during the eyewall-thinning process. Both Chapala and Kyarr passed through a positive anomaly region of maximum potential intensity during the RI phase, which increases the possibility to develop to higher intensity after genesis.

Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate change. However, the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still unclear. In this study, the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation (TPEP) influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation, monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2018. We found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale, with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP, and the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) before 2002 are larger than that after 2003. The interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea ice. In the light ice years, a remarkable positive geopotential height (HGT) anomaly appears over the Barents‒Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake Baikal. Two wave trains originating over the Barents‒Kara Sea can be observed. The southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream, showing a ‘+ − + − +’ pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the TP. Negative HGT anomaly controls the western TP, which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the TPEP. The northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP, showing a ‘+ − +’ HGT anomaly distribution. Positive HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP, which is not conducive to precipitation in the region. When the SIC in the Barents‒Kara Sea increases, the situation is opposite. The above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east‒west distribution of the TPEP.

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

Southward displacement of the glacial westerly jet over Asia driven by enhanced Arctic amplification after the Mid-Brunhes Event

The climate and paleoenvironmental evolution of the East Asian continent and adjacent Northwest Pacific Ocean is governed by the interplay of the region's dominant features in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, which control the redistribution of heat and moisture. In the atmospheric realm, the subtropical westerly jet stream and East Asian monsoon are crucial components of climate evolution over East Asia, an area that is inhabited by almost half of the world's population. Reconstruction of long-term changes in atmospheric circulation in this region is to date scarce, especially on timescales predating the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we reconstruct dust fluxes, marine productivity and water temperatures in the Northwest Pacific Ocean using lipid biomarkers both from terrestrial and marine organisms and elemental scanning data. Land-plant derived wax lipids in the studied sediments were used as indicators for dust fluxes and hence are representative of past changes in wind strength and pathways. We evaluate changes both in the zonal westerlies and monsoonal winds over the past 1 Ma and across major climatic events. Prior to the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE; ~ 430 ka ago), concentrations of these compounds showed a distinct glacial-interglacial pattern, which we relate to past changes in the position of the westerly jet stream. We demonstrate substantial changes in wind patterns across the MBE, resulting in reduced dust fluxes to the Northwest Pacific in ensuing glacials. We propose that the westerly jet was permanently located south of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau through peak glacials, fostered by amplified Arctic cooling.

Two leading patterns of winter PM2.5 variations in eastern China before the outbreak of cold surge and their causes

It has been revealed that cold surge (CS) is a favorable weather condition to dissipate haze over Eastern China (EC). However, the variation of PM2.5 Concentrations in EC (PCEC) during different CSs is less discussed. This study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of winter PCEC during CS based on PM2.5 concentrations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2019. Two leading modes of PCEC variations during CSs were obtained through Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The results show that PCEC increased before the CSs related to the EOF1 (Type1 CSs) occurred and decreased afterwards. While the PCEC has been showing a decreasing trend from 5 days before to 5 days after the CSs related to EOF2 (Type2 CSs), composite analysis shows that circulation anomalies with stable blocking highs over the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk can increase the PCEC by strengthening the anticyclonic anomaly over EC before the Type1 CSs outbreak. While circulation anomalies with two wave-trains in mid and high latitudes can improve air quality from 5 days before to 5 days after the Type2 CSs outbreak by strengthening the cyclonic anomaly with northerly wind component over EC. The differences in circulation anomalies associated with two types of CSs mainly exist on the time scale of 10–30 days since the circulation anomalies of Type2 CSs are accompanied by the wave-train structure of “+ - + -+” propagating along the subtropical westerly jet stream. The wave-train is negatively correlated with PCEC, and with the strongest signal 2–4 days before the CSs outbreak, which can be used as a potential indicator to predict the ability of CSs to dissipate PCEC.

Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are closely associated with historical extreme precipitation events over East Asia. The projected increase in such weather systems under global warming has been extensively discussed in previous studies, while the role of stratospheric aerosol, particularly for the implementation of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), in such a change remains unknown. Based on an ensemble of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations, here we investigate changes in the frequency of ARs and their associated mean and extreme precipitation under a range of climate forcing, including greenhouse gas emission scenarios of high (SSP5–8.5) and medium (SSP2–4.5) levels, the deployment of SAI geoengineering (G6sulfur), and solar dimming (G6solar). The result indicates a significant increase in AR frequency and AR-related precipitation over most of East Asia in a warmer climate, and the most pronounced changes are observed in southern China. Comparing G6solar and both the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, the G6sulfur simulations indicate that SAI is effective at partly ameliorating the increases in AR activity over the subtropical region; however, it may result in more pronounced increases in ARs and associated precipitation over the upper-midlatitude regions, particularly northeastern China. Such a response is associated with the further weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream under SAI that favours the upper-midlatitude AR activity. This is driven by the decreased meridional gradient of thermal expansion in the mid–high troposphere associated with aerosol cooling across the tropical region, though SAI effectively ameliorates the widespread increase in thermal expansion under climate warming. Such a side effect of SAI over the populated region implies that caution must be taken when considering geoengineering approaches to mitigating hydrological risk under climate change.

The Physical Processes Dominating the Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Summer Rainfall

Abstract The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), an important climate signal in regulating the interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer rainfall, is closely related to a meridional precipitation dipole pattern between the southeastern and northeastern TP. In this study, based on diagnoses of observations and multiple realizations of the CESM2 historical simulation, we find that there are fundamental differences between the formation processes dominating the SNAO-related summer rainfall anomaly in the southeastern and northeastern TP. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis reveals that the anomalous vertical (horizontal) moisture advection makes the largest contribution to the southeastern (northeastern) TP summer rainfall anomaly. During the negative phase of SNAO, the increased precipitation in the southeastern TP is related to the anomalous ascending flows, which are driven by two processes according to the moist static energy budget. The first is the southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream, which produces positive anomalous zonal advection of the climatological moist enthalpy in the upper-middle troposphere over the southeastern TP. The second is related to the enhanced transport of anomalous warm moist air to the south of TP, which produces positive anomalous meridional advection of anomalous moist enthalpy into the lower troposphere over the southeastern TP under the control of climatological monsoonal meridional circulations. This positive moist enthalpy advection enhances the atmospheric moist static energy and facilitate enhanced local convection. For the northeastern TP, the decreased precipitation is dominated by negative anomalous horizontal moisture advections due to the SNAO-induced equivalent-barotropic anomalous cyclone near the eastern edge of the TP.

Impact of the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean on the summer hydroclimate over East Central Asia: A case study in the central Tianshan Mountains

Observations have shown that the hydroclimatic variations in East Central Asia (ECA) are a result of the interaction of high-, middle- and low-latitude atmospheric circulation systems. This study aims to explore the potential mechanisms of hydroclimate variability in ECA over a longer timescale than in previous studies. Based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O), we reconstructed the May–July relative humidity variations in the central Tianshan Mountains from 1661 to 2016, which can represent the dry/wet variations over a large region of ECA. The reconstruction revealed several dry periods that occurred in 1674–1691, 1705–1740, 1750–1770, 1806–1826, the 1940s, and 1960–1980. The reconstructed relative humidity presented an obvious upward trajectory from the 18th to the early 20th century and humidification characteristics in the mid- to late 1980s. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) had a nonlinear impact on the hydroclimate of ECA by modulating the position of the subtropical westerly jet stream (SWJS). Positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), which may enhance the cross-equatorial jet, transport additional water vapour into ECA, and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) provides favourable circulation conditions for water vapour transport. Summer hydroclimatic variations in ECA are jointly affected by the North Atlantic and the TIO. The impact of the TIO on the hydroclimate in ECA cannot be ignored. • Summer relative humidity in ECA was reconstructed by tree-ring δ 18 O during the past three centuries. • Summer hydroclimatic variations in ECA were jointly affected by the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. • The negative phase of the SNAO favours the transport of southerly water vapour to ECA through the SWJS. • Summer hydroclimatic variations in ECA correspond well with the climate variability of tropical Indian Ocean.

Increasing spring dust storms in the future over the Taklimakan Desert, Northwest China: implications from changes in circulation pattern frequency in CMIP6

Dust storms over the Taklimakan Desert (TD), Northwest China, not only influence human health but also affect regional climate through direct effects of dust aerosols on solar and longwave radiation. The Coupled Model Intercomparisons Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models project a decrease in dust storms because of a decrease in dust emissions over the TD in the future under warming scenarios. However, inaccurate simulations of dust emissions cause the CMIP5 models to simulate dust storms poorly. Here we analyzed typical circulation patterns that initiate dust storms over the TD and examined changes in the frequency of typical circulation patterns derived from the CMIP6 models in an extreme warming scenario. The results show that there will be an increase in typical circulation pattern frequency in the latter half of the 21st century compared with 1958–2014, implying an increase in dust storms over the TD in the future under the extreme warming scenario. The increase in dust storms over the TD may be related to an increase in synoptic activities in the future from the Middle Asia to the TD, which is caused by a southern movement of subtropical westerly jet stream under the extreme warming scenario.

Effects of Arctic sea ice in autumn on extreme cold events over the Tibetan Plateau in the following winter: possible mechanisms

Extreme cold events (ECEs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exert serious impacts on agriculture and animal husbandry and are important drivers of ecological and environmental changes. We investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the ECEs on the TP and the possible effects of Arctic sea ice. The daily observed minimum air temperature at 73 meteorological stations on the TP during 1980–2018 and the BCC_AGCM3_MR model are used. Our results show that the main mode of winter ECEs over the TP exhibits the same spatial variation and interannual variability across the whole region and is affected by two wave trains originating from the Arctic. The southern wave train is controlled by the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. It initiates in the Norwegian Sea, and then passes through the North Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal along the subtropical westerly jet stream. It enters the TP from the south and brings warm, humid air from the oceans. By contrast, the northern wave train is controlled by the sea ice in the Laptev Sea. It originates from the Barents and Kara seas, passes through Lake Baikal, and enters the TP from the north, bringing dry and cold air. A decrease in the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea causes positive potential height anomalies in the Arctic. This change enhances the pressure gradient between the Artic and the mid-latitudes, leading to westerly winds in the northern TP, which block the intrusion of cold air into the south. By contrast, a decrease in the sea ice in the Laptev Sea causes negative potential height anomalies in the Artic. This change reduces the pressure gradient between the Artic and the mid-latitudes, leading to easterly winds to the north of the TP, which favors the southward intrusion of cold polar air. A continuous decrease in the amount of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea would reduce the frequency of ECEs over the TP and further aggravate TP warming in winter.

Variability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the lightning flash density (LFD) variability over India during premonsoon, monsoon and postmonsoon seasons. This study intends to shed light on the impact of ENSO phases on the LFD over the Indian subcontinent using the data obtained from Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensors (LIS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Results suggest the LFD over northeast India (NEI) and southern peninsular India (SPI) strengthened (weakened) during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO in the premonsoon season. During monsoon season, NNWI (north of northwest India) shows above (below) normal LFD in the cold (warm) ENSO phase. It is striking to note that there are three hot spots of LFD over the Indian land region which became more prominent during the monsoon seasons of the last decade. A widespread increase in LFD is observed all over India during the warm phase of ENSO in the postmonsoon season. A robust rise in graupel/snow concentration is found during the postmonsoon season over SPI in the ENSO warm phase, with the lowest fluctuations over the NEI and NNWI regions. The subtropical westerly jet stream is shifted south in association with the warm phase, accompanied by an increase in geopotential height (GPH) all over India for the same period. This exciting remark may explain the indirect influences of ENSO's warm phase on LFD during the postmonsoon season by pushing the mean position of the subtropical westerly towards southern latitudes. However, the marked increase in LFD is confined mostly over the NNWI in the cold ENSO phase.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Phase Dependence of Teleconnection between the North Atlantic Oscillation in February and the Tibetan Plateau in March

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP), referred to as the “Asian water tower,” contains one of the largest land ice masses on Earth. The local glacier shrinkage and frozen-water storage are strongly affected by variations in surface air temperature over the TP (TPSAT), especially in springtime. This study reveals that the relationship between the February North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and March TPSAT is unstable with time and regulated by the phase of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The significant out-of-phase connection occurs only during the warm phase of AMV (AMV+). The results show that during the AMV+, the negative phase of the NAO persists from February to March, and is accompanied by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train trapped along a northward-shifted subtropical westerly jet stream across Eurasia, inducing an anomalous adiabatic descent that warms the TP. However, during the cold phase of the AMV, the negative NAO cannot persist into March. The Rossby wave train propagates along the well-separated polar and subtropical westerly jets, and the NAO–TPSAT connection is broken. Further investigation suggests that the enhanced synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) interaction over the North Atlantic in February and March during the AMV+, caused by the southward-shifted storm track, helps maintain the NAO pattern via positive eddy feedback. This study provides a new detailed perspective on the decadal variability of the North Atlantic–TP connection in late winter to early spring.

Impacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation: application of a regional climate model

Orography has considerable impacts on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, emphasizing the necessity of adequate representation of the impacts of orography in numerical models. The regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impacts of orography on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Three numerical experiments in four different years for winter and summer have been conducted over a large geographical area, covering Eurasia, Africa and Oceania. These experiments include control simulations using the real orography, simulations with the removed orography of the whole domain and simulations with the removed orography of the whole domain except the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the Tibetan Plateau prevents the development of the sea-level high pressure in South Asia and contributes to the intensification of the Siberian high through blocking cold air advection from Siberia toward India. The Tibetan Plateau is also responsible for the southward displacement of low-level easterly flows in the North Indian Ocean, such that elimination of this Plateau is associated with more zonal orientation and intensification of easterly winds, as well as an increase of moisture flux over India and the Arabian Sea. Descending motions associated with lee waves of the Western Ghat Mountains contribute to a decrease of precipitation over the Arabian Sea. In summer, the Tibetan Plateau reinforces the South Asian low-pressure system and pushes the South Asian monsoon to South Asia. Both the tropical easterly jet stream over the southern Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical westerly jet stream over the Tibetan Plateau are weakened when the whole orography is removed. Removal of the whole orography is associated with a considerable equatorward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone over South Asia. In austral winter, low-level subtropical anticyclones in Southern Africa and Australia are intensified when the whole orography is removed.

The Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream in CRA-40, ERA5, and CFSR Reanalysis Data: Comparative Assessment

The Asian subtropical westerly jet (AWJ) exerts crucial influences on Eurasian continent weather and climate. This paper analyzes the advantages and limitations of CRA-40, which is China’s first generation 40-yr (1979–2018) global atmosphere and land reanalysis product, in describing the characteristics of AWJ, compared with the ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The results show a close agreement across the three reanalyses on the whole. (1) In terms of climatology, overall differences of 200-hPa zonal wind across the three reanalyses are within ± 0.5 m s−1 (i.e., ± 2%). Large differences with maxima of ± 2 m s−1 (± 5%) appear over the Iranian Plateau and south of the Tibetan Plateau in the mid-upper troposphere in winter. (2) For seasonal cycle, the position and intensity of the AWJ centers in the three reanalyses are highly consistent, with correlation coefficient over 0.98. But there are some discrepancies in the zonal shift of the western AWJ center during the transition season. (3) On the interannual timescale, intensity of all AWJ centers varies consistently among the three reanalyses, while larger differences appear in their meridional displacement, especially in the eastern AWJ center. (4) For long-term variations, the three reanalyses all present a significant northward movement of the westerly jet axis in winter, and a southward displacement over central Asia (40°–80°E) and a northward migration over East Asia (80°–110°E) in summer. Thus, this study has provided confidence that CRA-40 has comparable performance with ERA5 and CFSR in depicting the characteristics of AWJ.

Different Impacts of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on the Surface Air Temperature in North America during ENSO and Neutral ENSO Years

AbstractThe present study investigates different impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on surface air temperature (Ts) in North America (NA) during ENSO and neutral ENSO episodes. In neutral ENSO years, the EAWM shows a direct impact on the Ts anomalies in NA on an interannual time scale. Two Rossby wave packets appear over the Eurasian–western Pacific (upstream) and North Pacific–NA (downstream) regions associated with a strong EAWM. Further analysis suggests that the downstream wave packet is caused by reflection of the upstream wave packet over the subtropical western Pacific and amplified over the North Pacific. Also, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) is intensified in the central and downstream region over the central North Pacific. Hence, increased barotropic kinetic energy conversion and the interaction between transient eddies and the EAJS tend to maintain the circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. Therefore, a strong EAWM tends to result in warm Ts anomalies in northwestern NA via the downstream wave packet emanating from the central North Pacific toward NA. A weak EAWM tends to induce cold Ts anomalies in western-central NA with a smaller magnitude. However, in ENSO years, an anomalous EAJS is mainly confined over East Asia and does not extend into the central North Pacific. The results confirm that the EAWM has an indirect impact on the Ts anomalies in NA via a modulation of the tropical convection anomalies associated with ENSO. Our results indicate that, for seasonal prediction of Ts anomalies in NA, the influence of the EAWM should be taken into account. It produces different responses in neutral ENSO and in ENSO years.

Why Has the Inner Tibetan Plateau Become Wetter since the Mid-1990s?

AbstractThe Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP; also called the Qiangtang Plateau) appears to have experienced an overall wetting in summer (June, July, and August) since the mid-1990s, which has caused the rapid expansion of thousands of lakes. In this study, changes in atmospheric circulations associated with the wetting process are analyzed for 1979–2018. These analyses show that the wetting is associated with simultaneously weakened westerlies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The latter is further significantly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on interdecadal time scales. The AMO has been in a positive phase (warm anomaly of the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface) since the mid-1990s, which has led to both a northward shift and weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream at 200 hPa near the TP through a wave train of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Eurasia. These anomalies are characterized by an anomalous anticyclone to the east of the ITP and an anomalous cyclone to the west of the ITP. The former weakens the westerly winds, trapping water vapor over the ITP while the latter facilitates water vapor intruding from the Arabian Sea into the ITP. Accordingly, summer precipitation over the ITP has increased since the mid-1990s.

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Middle East surface air temperature (ME-SAT), during boreal summer (June to August: JJA), shows robust multidecadal variations for the period 1948−2016. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as coupled atmosphere–ocean model simulations, we linked the observed summer ME-SAT variability to the multidecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean (AMV). This Atlantic−ME connection during summer involves ocean–atmosphere interactions through multiple ocean basins, with an influence from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The downstream response to Atlantic SST is a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet stream that impacts summer ME-SAT variability through a wave-like pattern in the upper tropospheric levels. The Atlantic SST response is further characterized by positive geopotential height anomalies in the upper levels over the Eurasian region and a dipole-like pressure distribution over the ME in lower levels. For positive Atlantic SST anomalies this pressure gradient initiates anomalous low-level southerly flow, which transports moisture from the neighboring water bodies toward the extremely hot and dry ME landmass. The increase in atmospheric moisture reduces the longwave radiation damping of the SAT anomaly, increasing further ME-SAT. A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments skillfully reproduces the North Atlantic–ME teleconnection. Our findings reveal that in observations and models the Atlantic Ocean acts as a critical pacemaker for summer ME-SAT multidecadal variability and that a positive AMV can lead to enhanced summer warming over the Middle East.

The Major Interannual Modes of Late-Summer Precipitation Over the Northern China Monsoon Region

ABSTRACTSummer precipitation in the northern China monsoon region (NCMR; 35°–55°N, 108°–135°E) shows significant intraseasonal variability. The early-summer (June) and late-summer (July–August) precipitation patterns show clear differences in their formation mechanisms and the systems that affect them. We used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the two leading modes of July–August precipitation over the NCMR and their associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using linear regression. The results show that the first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes correspond to a pan-NCMR precipitation variation pattern and a precipitation oscillation pattern between North China (NC) and Northeast China (NEC), respectively. These two modes account for 22.1% and 10.1% of the total variance, respectively. The associated principal components (PCs) both have significant interannual variability with a period of 2–4 years. In addition, PC1 has significant interdecadal variability with a period of 20–30 years. Further analysis suggests that EOF1 and EOF2 clearly have a different relationship with the summer monsoon circulation system. In the positive phase of PC1, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAWJS) shows a northward trend with higher intensity than normal the blocking high at mid- to high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is located to the north of its normal position. The NCMR is controlled by stronger southerly winds, which cause the convergence of water vapour, favouring more precipitation in this region and vice versa. In the positive phase of PC2, the EAWJS swings to the south of Lake Baikal. Significant positive height anomalies exist from western NC to NEC. Significant negative height anomalies occur to the subtropical northwestern Pacific. This indicates that the cold vortex in Northeast China is inactive, the WPSH tends to be weaker and located to the south of its normal position, and NEC (NC) is dominated by anomalous northeasterly (southeasterly) winds. The convergence (divergence) of water vapour in NC (NEC) favours more (less) precipitation in NC (NEC) and vice versa. Therefore, EOF1 is related to the large-scale circulation anomalies over East Asia and the northwest Pacific in July and August, whereas EOF2 is more closely related to the anomalies in the regional circulation over the NCMR and the subtropical northwestern Pacific.

Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations

Abstract Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale cyclonic weather systems advected over Pakistan and northern India by the subtropical westerly jet stream. There, they are responsible for most of the winter precipitation, which is crucial for agriculture of the rabi crop as well for as more extreme precipitation events, which can lead to local flooding and avalanches. Despite their importance, there has not yet been an attempt to objectively determine the fate of WDs in future climate GCMs. Here, a tracking algorithm is used to build up a catalog of WDs in both CMIP5 historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments of the future. It is shown that in business-as-usual (RCP8.5) future climate simulations, WD frequency falls by around 15% by the end of the twenty-first century, with the largest relative changes coming in pre- and postmonsoon months. Meanwhile, mean WD intensity will decrease, with central vorticity expected to become less cyclonic by about 12% over the same period. Changes in WD frequency are attributed to the projected widening and weakening of the winter subtropical jet as well as decreasing meridional wind shear and midtropospheric baroclinic vorticity tendency, which also explain the changes in intensity. The impact of these changes on regional precipitation is explored. The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean—subject to the ability of the models to represent the responsible processes. The effect on extreme precipitation events, however, remains unclear.