Northern Hemisphere Subtropics Research Articles

Study on long term troposphere lower stratosphere temperature (TLST) trend in tropical and subtropical northern hemisphere using ground based and COSMIC satellite data

The troposphere, the lowest and closest layer of the atmosphere, is where all meteorological events take place. The tropospheric — lower stratospheric (TLS) temperature trend is determined using linear regression and is essential to comprehending the consequences of climate change in the future. In this article, we explored the long-term temperature variabilities and trends of TLS (1–25 km) temperature and its responses by natural drivers such as El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), solar flux (SF), quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), Indian ocean dipole (IOD), and aerosol indexes (AI) using monthly averaged zonal mean COSMIC satellite and ground — based Radiosonde (RS) observations for the period of 2006 – 2020 over tropical station Addis (90 N, 38.80 E) and subtropical station Cairo (30.030 N, 31.230 E). The tropopause is located at the tropical station Addis at 17 km with a temperature of 190–194 K, and for the subtropical station Cairo, it is located at 15 km with a temperature of 201 K, which supports the decrement of tropopause height from the tropics to the subtropics with a slight increase in temperature. The two main oscillations in the TLS region can be seen by using the wavelet analysis technique: the semiannual oscillation (SAO) and the annual oscillation (AO), with the AO being especially strong in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, Morlet wavelet analysis on cold-point tropopause temperature CPTt displays AO and cold point tropopause height CPTh reveals a QBO-like signal. The TLS region has positive peaks at heights of 7, 21, 22, 13, and 4 km for the Addis station, and at 15, 19, 25, 15, and 16 km for the Cairo station in response to natural drivers such as ENSO, SF, QBO, IOD, and aerosol. Lag analyses demonstrate a one-month delay for all natural forcings, except for oceanic indices and SSF, up to three months below the tropopause (below 15 km). There is a noticeable 3 to 4 months lag in every oscillation above the tropopause. A warming trend in the tropospheric region and a cooling trend in the UTLS regions are revealed by MLR trend analysis. In contrast to the subtropical Cairo station, which has the highest warming rate of 0.38 K/decade at 2 km and the maximum cooling rate of −0.2 K/decade at 10 km, the tropical Addis station has the highest cooling rate of −0.38 K/decade at 12 km and the highest warming rate of 0.28 K/decade at 3 km. Our trend findings are consistent with previous research.

The Recovery and Re-Calibration of a 13-Month Aerosol Extinction Profiles Dataset from Searchlight Observations from New Mexico, after the 1963 Agung Eruption

The recovery and re-calibration of a dataset of vertical aerosol extinction profiles of the 1963/64 stratospheric aerosol layer measured by a searchlight at 32° N in New Mexico, US, is reported. The recovered dataset consists of 105 aerosol extinction profiles at 550 nm that cover the period from December 1963 to December 1964. It is a unique record of the portion of the aerosol cloud from the March 1963 Agung volcanic eruption that was transported into the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. The data-recovery methodology involved re-digitizing the 105 original aerosol extinction profiles from individual Figures within a research report, followed by the re-calibration. It involves inverting the original equation used to compute the aerosol extinction profile to retrieve the corresponding normalized detector response profile. The re-calibration of the original aerosol extinction profiles used Rayleigh extinction profiles calculated from local soundings. Rayleigh and aerosol slant transmission corrections are applied using the MODTRAN code in transmission mode. Also, a best-estimate aerosol phase function was calculated from observations and applied to the entire column. The tropospheric aerosol phase function from an AERONET station in the vicinity of the searchlight location was applied between 2.76 to 11.7 km. The stratospheric phase function, applied for a 12.2 to 35.2 km altitude range, is calculated from particle-size distributions measured by a high-altitude aircraft in the vicinity of the searchlight in early 1964. The original error estimate was updated considering unaccounted errors. Both the re-calibrated aerosol extinction profiles and the re-calibrated stratospheric aerosol optical depth magnitudes showed higher magnitudes than the original aerosol extinction profiles and the original stratospheric aerosol optical depth, respectively. However, the magnitudes of the re-calibrated variables show a reasonable agreement with other contemporary observations. The re-calibrated stratospheric aerosol optical depth demonstrated its consistency with the tropics-to-pole decreasing trend, associated with the major volcanic eruption stratospheric aerosol pattern when compared to the time-coincident stratospheric aerosol optical depth lidar observations at Lexington at 42° N.

Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000

AbstractSatellite observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System show that Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 Wm−2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by a 0.4 ± 0.25 Wm−2 increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Despite marked differences in ASR and OLR trends during the hiatus (2000–2010), transition-to-El Niño (2010–2016) and post-El Niño (2016–2022) periods, trends in net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 Wm−2 per decade of one another, implying a steady acceleration of climate warming. Northern and southern hemisphere trends in NET are consistent to 0.06 ± 0.31 Wm−2 per decade due to a compensation between weak ASR and OLR hemispheric trend differences of opposite sign. We find that large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing ASR trends in the northern hemisphere (NH). These changes are especially large over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean, and coincide with large increases in sea-surface temperature (SST). The decrease in cloud fraction and higher SSTs over the NH sub-tropics lead to a significant increase in OLR from cloud-free regions, which partially compensate for the NH ASR increase. Decreases in middle cloud reflection and a weaker reduction in low-cloud reflection account for the increase in ASR in the southern hemisphere, while OLR changes are weak. Changes in cloud cover in response to SST increases imply a feedback to climate change yet a contribution from radiative forcing or internal variability cannot be ruled out.

A GEO-GEO Stereo Observation of Diurnal Cloud Variations over the Eastern Pacific

Fast atmospheric processes such as deep convection and severe storms are challenging to observe and understand without adequate spatiotemporal sampling. Geostationary (GEO) imaging has the advantage of tracking these fast processes continuously at a cadence of the 10 min global and 1 min mesoscale from thermal infrared (TIR) channels. More importantly, the newly-available GEO-GEO stereo observations from our 3D-Wind algorithm provide more accurate height assignment for atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) than those from conventional TIR methods. Unlike the radiometric methods, the stereo height is insensitive to radiometric TIR calibration of satellite sensors and can assign the feature height correctly under complex situation (e.g., multi-layer clouds and atmospheric inversion). This paper shows a case study from continuous GEO-GEO stereo observations over the Eastern Pacific during 1–5 February 2023, to highlight diurnal variations of clouds and dynamics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), altocumulus/congestus, convective outflow and tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Because of their good vertical resolution, the stereo observations often show a wind shear in these cloud layers. As an example, the stereo winds reveal the classic Ekman spiral in marine PBL dynamics with a clockwise (counterclockwise) wind direction change with height in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere subtropics. Over the Southeastern Pacific, the stereo cloud observations show a clear diurnal variation in the closed-to-open cell transition in the PBL and evidence of precipitation at a lower level from broken stratocumulus clouds.

Upper Cretaceous dinoflagellate cysts events from the sub-tropical northern hemisphere

Recognizing the ranking optime sequence of fossil dinoflagellate cysts can be a challenge for qualitative biostratigraphy. For this reason, we present the result of a quantitative stratigraphic study through probabilistic analysis of six wells from Baja California (Mexico) and six from the Gulf of Suez and the Mediterranean Sea (Egypt), which allows us to recognize 22 species of dinoflagellate cysts in an optimal sequence with 95% probability for the Upper Cretaceous in subtropical areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Photoautotrophic species represent the largest number in the database (159 species), indicating that they are the main producers, while heterotrophic species are in the minority (74 species). Spiniferites and Florentinia are the most abundant and diverse taxa, which, together with the absence of the genus Impagidinium, indicates a shallow marine depositional environment. The quantitative analysis estimates an optimal classified succession that allows the Upper Cretaceous to be divided into five groups (G1 to G5) of species communities with similar ages. The greatest species diversity is found in group G4, associated with the Maastrichtian, and the least in group G1, associated with the early Cenomanian to early Turonian. These results and comparison with previous studies using the same method of quantitative biostratigraphy suggest a similarity of paleoenvironmental conditions in subtropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere and tropical regions during the Upper Cretaceous.

Simulations of anthropogenic bromoform indicate high emissions at the coast of East Asia

Abstract. Bromoform is the major by-product from chlorination of cooling water in coastal power plants. The number of power plants in East and Southeast Asian economies has increased rapidly, exceeding mean global growth. Bottom-up estimates of bromoform emissions based on few measurements appear to under-represent the industrial sources of bromoform from East Asia. Using oceanic Lagrangian analyses, we assess the amount of bromoform produced from power plant cooling-water treatment in East and Southeast Asia. The spread of bromoform is simulated as passive particles that are advected using the three-dimensional velocity fields over the years 2005/2006 from the high-resolution NEMO-ORCA0083 ocean general circulation model. Simulations are run for three scenarios with varying initial bromoform concentrations based on the range of bromoform measurements in cooling-water discharge. Comparing the modelled anthropogenic bromoform to in situ observations in the surface ocean and atmosphere, the two lower scenarios show the best agreement, suggesting initial bromoform concentrations in cooling water to be around 20–60 µg L−1. Based on these two scenarios, the model produces elevated bromoform in coastal waters of East Asia with average concentrations of 23 and 68 pmol L−1 and maximum values in the Yellow Sea, Sea of Japan and East China Sea. The industrially produced bromoform is quickly emitted into the atmosphere with average air–sea flux of 3.1 and 9.1 nmolm-2h-1, respectively. Atmospheric abundances of anthropogenic bromoform are derived from simulations with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART based on ERA-Interim wind fields in 2016. In the marine boundary layer of East Asia, the FLEXPART simulations show mean anthropogenic bromoform mixing ratios of 0.4–1.3 ppt, which are 2–6 times larger compared to the climatological bromoform estimate. During boreal winter, the simulations show that some part of the anthropogenic bromoform is transported by the northeasterly winter monsoon towards the tropical regions, whereas during boreal summer anthropogenic bromoform is confined to the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. Convective events in the tropics entrain an additional 0.04–0.05 ppt of anthropogenic bromoform into the stratosphere, averaged over tropical Southeast Asia. In our simulations, only about 10 % of anthropogenic bromoform is outgassed from power plants located in the tropics south of 20∘ N, so that only a small fraction of the anthropogenic bromoform reaches the stratosphere. We conclude that bromoform from cooling-water treatment in East Asia is a significant source of atmospheric bromine and might be responsible for annual emissions of 100–300 Mmol of Br in this region. These anthropogenic bromoform sources from industrial water treatment might be a missing factor in global flux estimates of organic bromine. While the current emissions of industrial bromoform provide a significant contribution to regional tropospheric budgets, they provide only a minor contribution to the stratospheric bromine budget of 0.24–0.30 ppt of Br.

Mechanisms Linked to Recent Ozone Decreases in the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere

AbstractPrevious studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric (LS) ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large‐scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here, we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA‐2). This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free‐running version of the GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a 10‐member ensemble of free‐running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free‐running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA‐2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free‐running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long‐term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

A modified seasonal cycle during MIS31 super-interglacial favors stronger interannual ENSO and monsoon variability

Abstract. It has long been recognized that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle can substantially modify climate features in distinct timescales. This study evaluates the impact of the enhanced seasonality characteristic of the Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS31) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based upon coupled climate simulations driven by present-day (CTR) and MIS31 boundary conditions, we demonstrate that the CTR simulation shows a significant concentration of power in the 3–7-year band and on the multidecadal timescale between 15 and 30 years. However, the MIS31 simulation shows drastically modified temporal variability of the ENSO, with stronger power spectrum at interannual timescales but the absence of decadal periodicity. Increased meridional gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics are revealed to be the primary candidates responsible for changes in the equatorial variability. The oceanic response to the MIS31 ENSO extends to the extratropics, and fits nicely with SST anomalies delivered by paleoreconstructions. The implementation of the MIS31 conditions results in a distinct global monsoon system and its link to the ENSO in respect to current conditions. In particular, the Indian monsoon intensified but no correlation with ENSO is found in the MIS31 climate, diverging from conditions delivered by our current climate in which this monsoon is significantly correlated with the NIÑO34 index. This indicates that monsoonal precipitation for this interglacial is more closely connected to hemispherical features than to the tropical–extratropical climate interaction.

Weakened Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during an El Niño–Decaying Summer under a Warmer Climate: Dominant Role of the Weakened Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on the Atmosphere

Abstract The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA.

Sensitivities of modelled water vapour in the lower stratosphere: temperature uncertainty, effects of horizontal transport and small-scale mixing

Abstract. Water vapour (H2O) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant role for global radiation. A realistic representation of H2O is therefore critical for accurate climate model predictions of future climate change. In this paper we investigate the effects of current uncertainties in tropopause temperature, horizontal transport and small-scale mixing on simulated H2O in the lower stratosphere (LS). To assess the sensitivities of simulated H2O, we use the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). First, we examine CLaMS, which is driven by two reanalyses, from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), to investigate the robustness with respect to the meteorological dataset. Second, we carry out CLaMS simulations with transport barriers along latitude circles (at the Equator, 15 and 35∘ N/S) to assess the effects of horizontal transport. Third, we vary the strength of parametrized small-scale mixing in CLaMS. Our results show significant differences (about 0.5 ppmv) in simulated stratospheric H2O due to uncertainties in the tropical tropopause temperatures between the two reanalysis datasets, JRA-55 and ERA-Interim. The JRA-55 based simulation is significantly moister when compared to ERA-Interim, due to a warmer tropical tropopause (approximately 2 K). The transport barrier experiments demonstrate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropics have a strong moistening effect on global stratospheric H2O. The comparison of tropical entry H2O from the sensitivity 15∘ N/S barrier simulation and the reference case shows differences of up to around 1 ppmv. Interhemispheric exchange shows only a very weak effect on stratospheric H2O. Small-scale mixing mainly increases troposphere–stratosphere exchange, causing an enhancement of stratospheric H2O, particularly along the subtropical jets in the summer hemisphere and in the NH monsoon regions. In particular, the Asian and American monsoon systems during a boreal summer appear to be regions especially sensitive to changes in small-scale mixing, which appears crucial for controlling the moisture anomalies in the monsoon UTLS. For the sensitivity simulation with varied mixing strength, differences in tropical entry H2O between the weak and strong mixing cases amount to about 1 ppmv, with small-scale mixing enhancing H2O in the LS. The sensitivity studies presented here provide new insights into the leading processes that control stratospheric H2O, which are important for assessing and improving climate model projections.

Preceding winter La Niña reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Leaving out the strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years, our understanding in the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) stands poor for the rest. This study quantifies the role of ENSO in the preceding winter on ISMR with a particular emphasis on ENSO-neutral summer and La Niña winter. Results show that, unlike the simultaneous ENSO-ISMR relationship, La Niña of previous winter reduces mean rainfall over the country by about 4% even during ENSO neutral summer. Moreover, when ENSO changes phase from La Niña in winter to El Niño in summer, ISMR is anomalously lower than during persisting El Niño years (−14.5% and −5.3%, respectively), increasing the probability of severe drought. This suppression effect of La Niña of the preceding winter on summer monsoon precipitation over India is mostly experienced in its western and southern parts. Principal component analysis of the zonal propagation of surface pressure anomalies from winter to summer along Northern Hemisphere subtropics decomposes interannual variations of seasonally persisting anomalies from zonal propagations. The dominant modes are associated with the seasonal transition of the ENSO phase, and are well correlated with date of onset and seasonal mean rainfall of monsoon over India. These results improve our understanding of the interannual variations of ISMR and could be used for diagnostics of general circulation models.

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Abstract. We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013–2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (∼ 1996 globally and ∼ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade−1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade−1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.

Hemispheric asymmetry in stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> trends

Abstract. Over 20 years of stratospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) data from ground-based zenith DOAS spectrometers were used for trend analysis, specifically, via multiple linear regression. Spectrometers from the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) cover the subtropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (Izaña, 28° N), the southern Subantarctic (Ushuaia, 55° S) and Antarctica (Marambio, 64° S, and Belgrano, 78° S). The results show that for the period 1993–2014, a mean positive decadal trend of +8.7 % was found in the subtropical Northern Hemisphere stations, and negative decadal trends of −8.7 and −13.8 % were found in the Southern Hemisphere at Ushuaia and Marambio, respectively; all trends are statistically significant at 95 %. Belgrano only shows a significant decadal trend of −11.3 % in the summer/autumn period. Most of the trends result from variations after 2005. The trend in the diurnal build-up per hour (DBU) was used to estimate the change in the rate of N2O5 conversion to NO2 during the day. With minor differences, the results reproduce those obtained for NO2. The trends computed for individual months show large month-to-month variability. At Izaña, the maximum occurs in December (+13.1 %), dropping abruptly to lower values in the first part of the year. In the Southern Hemisphere, the polar vortex dominates the monthly distributions of the trends. At Marambio, the maximum occurs in mid-winter (−21 %), whereas at the same time, the Ushuaia trend is close to its annual minimum (−7 %). The large difference in the trends at these two relatively close stations suggests a vortex shift towards the Atlantic/South American area over the past few years. Finally, the hemispheric asymmetry obtained in this work is discussed in the framework of the results obtained by previous works that considered tracer analysis and Brewer–Dobson circulation. The results obtained here provide evidence that the NO2 produced by N2O decomposition is not the only cause of the observed trend in the stratosphere and support recent publications pointing to a dynamical redistribution starting in the past decade.

Intercontinental and intracontinental biogeography of the eastern Asian – Eastern North American disjunct Panax (the ginseng genus, Araliaceae), emphasizing its diversification processes in eastern Asia

The intercontinental biogeography between eastern Asia and eastern North America has attracted much attention from evolutionary biologists. Further insights into understanding the evolution of the intercontinental disjunctions have been hampered by the lack of studies on the intracontinental biogeography in eastern Asia, a region with complex geology, geography, climates and habitats. Herein we studied the biogeographic history of the eastern Asian-eastern North American disjunct genus Panax with special emphasis on the investigation of its uneven diversification in Asia. This study reconstructs the diversification history of Panax and also emphasizes a large clade of Panax taxa, which has a wide distribution in eastern Asia, but was unresolved in previous studies. We examined the noncoding plastid DNA fragments of trnH-psbA, rps16, and psbM-trnD, the mitochondrial b/c intron of NAD1, and the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of 356 samples from 47 populations. The results revealed the subtropical Northern Hemisphere origin (Asia or Asia and North America) of Panax in the Paleocene. Intercontinental disjunctions between eastern Asia and eastern North America formed twice in Panax, once estimated in early Eocene for the split of P. trifolius and another in mid-Miocene for the divergence of P. quinquefolius. Intercontinental diversifications in Panax showed temporal correlation with the increase of global temperature. The evolutionary radiation of the P. bipinnatifidus species complex occurred around the boundary of Oligocene and Miocene. Strong genetic structure among populations of the species complex was detected and the populations may be isolated by distance. The backbone network and the Bayesian clustering analysis revealed a major evolutionary radiation centered in the Hengduan Mountains of western China. Our results suggested that the evolutionary radiation of Panax was promoted by geographic barriers, including mountain ranges (Hengduan Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyishan Mountains), oceans and altitudinal shifts, which further contribute to the knowledge of the uneven species diversification between eastern Asia and North America.

The Impact of the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation on the Tropopause

Abstract Previous studies have identified two important features of summertime thermodynamics: 1) a significant correlation between the low-level distribution of equivalent potential temperature and the potential temperature θ of the extratropical tropopause and 2) a northwestward shift of the maximum tropopause θ relative to the maximum low-level . Here, the authors hypothesize these two features occur because of the Asian monsoon circulation. The hypothesis is examined using a set of idealized prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) aquaplanet simulations. Simulations with a zonally symmetric background climate exhibit a weak moisture–tropopause correlation. A significant correlation and northwestward shift occurs when a zonal wave-1 SST perturbation is introduced in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics. The equivalent zonal-mean subtropical warming does not produce a significant correlation. A mechanism is proposed to explain the moisture–tropopause connection that involves the circulation response to zonally asymmetric surface heating and its impact on the tropopause defined by the 2-potential-vorticity-unit (PVU; 1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1) surface. While the circulation response to diabatic heating is well known, here the focus is on the implications for the tropopause. Consistent with previous research, surface heating increases the low-level and produces low-level convergence and a cyclonic circulation. The low-level convergence is coupled with upper-level divergence via convection and produces an upper-level anticyclonic circulation consistent with Sverdrup balance. The anticyclonic vorticity lowers the PV northwest of the surface heating via Rossby wave dynamics. The decreased PV leads to a northwestward shift of the 2-PVU surface on fixed pressure levels. The θ value to the northwest of the surface heating is higher, and consequently the maximum tropopause θ increases.

Sensitivity test of parameterizations of subgrid-scale orographic form drag in the NCAR CESM1

Turbulent drag caused by subgrid orographic form drag has significant effects on the atmosphere. It is represented through parameterization in large-scale numerical prediction models. An indirect parameterization scheme, the Turbulent Mountain Stress scheme (TMS), is currently used in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model v1.0.4. In this study we test a direct scheme referred to as BBW04 (Beljaars et al. in Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1327–1347, 2004. doi:10.1256/qj.03.73), which has been used in several short-term weather forecast models and earth system models. Results indicate that both the indirect and direct schemes increase surface wind stress and improve the model’s performance in simulating low-level wind speed over complex orography compared to the simulation without subgrid orographic effect. It is shown that the TMS scheme produces a more intense wind speed adjustment, leading to lower wind speed near the surface. The low-level wind speed by the BBW04 scheme agrees better with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and is more sensitive to complex orography as a direct method. Further, the TMS scheme increases the 2-m temperature and planetary boundary layer height over large areas of tropical and subtropical Northern Hemisphere land.

Evaluation of UTLS carbon monoxide simulations in GMI and GEOS-Chem chemical transport models using Aura MLS observations

Abstract. This study evaluates the distribution and variation of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during 2004–2012 as simulated by two chemical transport models, using the latest version of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. The simulated spatial distributions, temporal variations and vertical transport of CO in the UTLS region are compared with those observed by MLS. We also investigate the impact of surface emissions and deep convection on CO concentrations in the UTLS over different regions, using both model simulations and MLS observations. Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and GEOS-Chem simulations of UTLS CO both show similar spatial distributions to observations. The global mean CO values simulated by both models agree with MLS observations at 215 and 147 hPa, but are significantly underestimated by more than 40 % at 100 hPa. In addition, the models underestimate the peak CO values by up to 70 % at 100 hPa, 60 % at 147 hPa and 40 % at 215 hPa, with GEOS-Chem generally simulating more CO at 100 hPa and less CO at 215 hPa than GMI. The seasonal distributions of CO simulated by both models are in better agreement with MLS in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with disagreements between model and observations over enhanced CO regions such as southern Africa. The simulated vertical transport of CO shows better agreement with MLS in the tropics and the SH subtropics than the NH subtropics. We also examine regional variations in the relationships among surface CO emission, convection and UTLS CO concentrations. The two models exhibit emission–convection–CO relationships similar to those observed by MLS over the tropics and some regions with enhanced UTLS CO.

Formation mechanism for the amplitude of interannual climate variability in subtropical northern hemisphere: relative contributions from the zonal asymmetric mean state and the interannual variability of SST

The Amplitude Interannual climate Variability (AIV) differs among the subtropical northern hemisphere, and the Western North Pacific (WNP) was claimed to exhibit the largest AIV. The robustness of the AIV pattern is investigated in this study with different atmospheric variables from multiple datasets. As consistently shown by the interannual variance patterns of precipitation and circulation, the AIV over subtropical northern hemisphere closely follows the mean state of precipitation, where higher (lower) AIV is located at moister (drier) regions. The largest AIV is seen over the broad area from South Asia to WNP, followed by a secondary local maximum over the Gulf of Mexico. To further investigate the formation mechanism for the AIV pattern, numerical simulations are performed by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). The zonal asymmetry of AIV is reduced if the interannual SST variability is removed, and it almost disappears if the zonal asymmetry of SST mean state is removed. The results suggest that the zonal asymmetric AIV pattern primarily originates from the zonal asymmetric SST mean state, and it is amplified by the interannual SST variability. The atmospheric convection–circulation feedback plays a key role in connecting the AIV with the mean state precipitation. In both observation and CAM4 simulations, stronger (weaker) convection–circulation feedback is seen in moister (drier) regions. By modulating the mean state precipitation and the associated intensity of convection–circulation feedback, the zonal asymmetric SST mean state accounts for the zonal asymmetry of AIV in the subtropical northern hemisphere.

Global Land Surface Extremes of Precipitation: Data Limitations and Trends

The lack of ready availability of daily precipitation data is a barrier to global analyses of long-term trends in extreme precipitation over land areas. Good availability of station data in the readily accessible Global Historical Climatological Network dataset is concentrated in Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid and high latitudes. The NH subtropics, the tropics, and Southern Hemisphere land areas are not well represented in this dataset. Our analysis of global trends for 1951–2014 spans a transition from slowly increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the 1950s to accelerating increases after the 1960s. We have examined common metrics as well as ones that are more extreme than what is typically studied and thus are more relevant to engineering applications. The area of increasing trends is approximately 1.5–2 times the area of decreasing trends for all of the metrics. These results show an increase at mid and high latitudes with a high level of confidence. Some areas with predominantly downward trends include western North America, the east and west coasts of Australia, and the Mediterranean Sea region. Recent studies on extreme precipitation have added to our knowledge of historical trends for selected regions. A number of studies for regions in China indicate a mix of upward and downward trends, but dominated by upward trends. Trends for India are not consistent among studies and thus no clear statement can be made. Studies for Africa are of limited use because the periods of analysis are shorter (due to lack of data availability) and thus cannot be directly compared with other regions. Overall, these recent regional studies do not cover sufficient area to make any general statements for zonal belts outside the NH mid and high latitudes.

Response of the intertropical convergence zone to zonally asymmetric subtropical surface forcings

AbstractThe energetic framework predicts no shift of the zonal mean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to zonally asymmetric forcings (zonal warming and cooling regions with zero zonal mean) assuming radiative feedbacks are linear. Here we show the ITCZ shifts southward in response to a zonally asymmetric forcing in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics in a slab ocean aquaplanet model. The southward shift is consistent with decreased zonal mean energy input to the atmosphere due to cloud radiative effect changes in the cooling region. When cloud‐radiative feedbacks are disabled the ITCZ shifts northward consistent with changes in the warming region where increased energy input via surface heat fluxes and stationary Rossby‐wave transport dominate. Competition between cooling and warming regions leads to changes in gross moist stability. Our results show rectification of zonally asymmetric forcings play an important role in zonal mean ITCZ dynamics and highlight the importance of assessing the momentum budget when interpreting ITCZ shifts.