Substorm Activity Research Articles

OBSERVATIONS OF SUBSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE DATA OF MAIN CAMERA SYSTEM AND THD SATELLITE IN THE PLASMA SHEET

We investigated an interesting case of the space-time dynamics of substorm activations (AL ~ 800 nT) on December 24, 2014, when there were simultaneous observations on the THEMIS D satellite in the plasma sheet (|X| ~ 6.2 RE) and ground-based observations on the Kola Peninsula. The development of the substorm activity in the interval of ~ 19:00 to ~ 20:00 UT was considered. In this interval, at Lovozero station (LOZ), three peaks in the Pi1B pulsations were recorded, associated with the brightening of arcs near LOZ. The first peak was observed in connection with the appearance of beads structures in the auroras along the growth phase arc to the south from LOZ latitude. The second and third peaks in Pi1B pulsations were associated with the expansion phase, when three dipolarization fronts (DFs) were registered according THD data. DFs and injection of energetic electrons into the magnetosphere were observed near the moments of sudden intensification of auroras: brightening of arcs, breakup in aurora. Besides, it was shown that the development of substorm occurs near the Harang discontinuity (HD) according to the IMAGE magnetometers data. In this case, we can follow the development of aurora around the HD according to the data of the all sky camera in Apatity. It was shown that the pre-onset auroral forms were moved accordingly the two-cell ionospheric convection developed during the growth phase of the substorm.

Mid-latitude effects of “expanded” geomagnetic substorms: a case study

The goal of this work is to examine the effects of the “expanded” or “high-latitude” substorms at mid-latitudes. These substorms are generated at auroral latitudes and propagate up to geomagnetic latitudes above ∼70° GMLat. They are usually observed during reccurent high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes. To identify the substorm activity, data from the networks IMAGE, SuperMAG and INTERMAGNET, and data from the all-sky cameras in Lovozero were used. To verify the interplanetary and geomagnetic conditions, data from the CDAWeb OMNI and from the WDC for geomagnetism at Kyoto were taken. We analyzed one substorm event on 20 February 2017 at ∼18:40 UT, it developed during HSS, in non-storm conditions. Some features of mid-latitude positive bays (MPB) at the European and Asian stations, and in particular at the Scandinavian meridian have been studied: the bay sign conversion from negative to positive values, the longitudinal and latitudinal extent of the MPB. The central meridian of the substorm was determined.

GICS IN THE MAIN TRANSMISSION LINE “NORTHERN TRANSIT” IN RUSSIA AND IN THE MÄNTSÄLÄ FINLAND PIPELINE: A CASE STUDY

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), arising both on power lines and on pipelines, may have strong negative impact on the technological networks up to accidents ("blackouts"). Magnetospheric disturbances are one of the factors in the appearance of GICs, however there is no unambiguous relationship between substorm and presence of currents. In this paper, we consider two intense cases of GIC (15March 2012 and 17 March 2013), registered on two different technological networks: 1) on the "Nothern Transit" power line (Vykhodnoy, Revda and Kondopoga stations) located in the auroral zone, 2) on the Finnish natural gas pipeline near Mäntsälä located in the subauroral zone. Both GIC cases are compared with substorm development in the auroral zone, using data from IMAGE magnetometers network and MAIN camera system in Apatity. We found a good correlation between the GIC appearance and variations of geomagnetic indexes: IL – index, which characterized of westward electrojet intensity on the IMAGE meridian and Wp - index, which describes the wave activity of the substorm. Besides, it was shown also a good correlation between GICs and the thin spatio-temporal structure of the substorm development (the appearance and the propagation to the pole of substorm activations), which is appeared both in the magnetic data and in the all sky camera images.

High-latitude crochet: solar-flare-induced magnetic disturbance independent from low-latitude crochet

Abstract. A solar-flare-induced, high-latitude (peak at 70–75∘ geographic latitude – GGlat) ionospheric current system was studied. Right after the X9.3 flare on 6 September 2017, magnetic stations at 68–77∘ GGlat near local noon detected northward geomagnetic deviations (ΔB) for more than 3 h, with peak amplitudes of >200 nT without any accompanying substorm activities. From its location, this solar flare effect, or crochet, is different from previously studied ones, namely, the subsolar crochet (seen at lower latitudes), auroral crochet (pre-requires auroral electrojet in sunlight), or cusp crochet (seen only in the cusp). The new crochet is much more intense and longer in duration than the subsolar crochet. The long duration matches with the period of high solar X-ray flux (more than M3-class flare level). Unlike the cusp crochet, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) BY is not the driver, with the BY values of only 0–1 nT out of a 3 nT total field. The equivalent ionospheric current flows eastward in a limited latitude range but extended at least 8 h in local time (LT), forming a zonal current region equatorward of the polar cap on the geomagnetic closed region. EISCAT radar measurements, which were conducted over the same region as the most intense ΔB, show enhancements of electron density (and hence of ion-neutral density ratio) at these altitudes (∼100 km) at which strong background ion convection (>100 m s−1) pre-existed in the direction of tidal-driven diurnal solar quiet (Sq0) flow. Therefore, this new zonal current can be related to this Sq0-like convection and the electron density enhancement, for example, by descending the E-region height. However, we have not found why the new crochet is found in a limited latitudinal range, and therefore, the mechanism is still unclear compared to the subsolar crochet that is maintained by a transient redistribution of the electron density. The signature is sometimes seen in the auroral electrojet (AE = AU − AL) index. A quick survey for X-class flares during solar cycle 23 and 24 shows clear increases in AU for about half the > X2 flares during non-substorm time, despite the unfavourable latitudinal coverage of the AE stations for detecting this new crochet. Although some of these AU increases could be the auroral crochet signature, the high-latitude crochet can be a rather common feature for X flares. We found a new type of the solar flare effect on the dayside ionospheric current at high latitudes but equatorward of the cusp during quiet periods. The effect is also seen in the AU index for nearly half of the > X2-class solar flares. A case study suggests that the new crochet is related to the Sq0 (tidal-driven part) current.

Scattering by whistler-mode waves during a quiet period perturbed by substorm activity

We study the dynamics of radiation belt electrons during a 10-day quiet period perturbed by substorm activity and preceding a high-speed stream (HSS), aiming at a global description of the radiation belts in L-shell, L in [2, 6], and energy [0.1, 10] MeV. We combine Van Allen Probes observations and Fokker-Planck numerical simulations of pitch-angle diffusion. The Fokker-Planck model uses event-driven pitch angle diffusion coefficients from whistler-mode waves, built from the wave properties and the ambient plasma density measurements from the Van Allen Probes. We first find this event has some similar characteristics to regular quiet times previously studied; a widely extended plasmasphere within which we observe strong and varying whistler-mode waves. These ambient conditions lead to strong pitch-angle scattering, which contributes to the creation of a wide slot region as well as a significant decay of the outer radiation belts, which are observed and qualitatively well simulated. In addition, we find the substorm activity causes short duration (within ± 4h) decay of the plasma density and a lowering amplitude of the whistler-mode waves within the plasmasphere, both causing opposite effects in terms of pitch angle diffusion. This leads to a diminution of pitch-angle diffusion at the time of the main substorm activity. Conversely, whistler-mode waves become enhanced in the time periods between the substorm injections. All effects cumulated, we find an enhancement of pitch angle diffusion by whistler-mode waves above L~4.7 during the 10-day period. This directly relates to the combination of quietness and substorm activity which allows pitch angle diffusing of up to 1 MeV electrons in the outer belt. Relativistic electrons of 1–2 MeV remain trapped in the outer belt, from L~4.7 to L~5.2, forming, in both the observations and the simulations, a distinct pocket of remnant electrons.

Statistical Study on Locally Generated High‐Frequency Plasmaspheric Hiss and Its Effect on Suprathermal Electrons: Van Allen Probes Observation and Quasi‐linear Simulation

AbstractThe local generation of high‐frequency plasmaspheric hiss has recently been reported by a case study (He et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081578). In this research, we perform statistics of global distributions of the locally generated high‐frequency plasmaspheric hiss (LHFPH) for different levels of substorm activity, using 6‐year observational data from Van Allen Probes. The statistics find that the LHFPH amplitude presents a strong magnetic local time (MLT) asymmetry and highly depends on substorm activity, and intense LHFPHs occur from predawn to dusk side and can penetrate into inner plasmasphere of L ∼ 3 during AE > 300 nT. The statistical LHFPH spectrum shows that its frequency increases with the ambient magnetic field, with peaked wave powers between 0.1 and 0.5 fce. Based on the statistical properties of LHFPH, we evaluate the electron diffusion coefficients using quasi‐linear theory. Those results suggest that electron pitch angle scattering driven by LHFPH could be a potential mechanism for the precipitation loss of suprathermal electrons of 0.1 keV to tens of keV, which can impact the ionization and chemical changes in the upper atmosphere.

Evolution of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Disturbances during the Magnetic Storm of July 22, 2009

The behavior of geomagnetic disturbances during a moderate CIR storm, the most intense magnetic storm of 2009 in the solar activity minimum are considered. It is found that the substorm activity during the main phase of the storm was observed not in the nighttime but in the morning sector (0700–0900 MLT) of auroral geomagnetic latitudes (65°–67°) and was accompanied by extremely large (up to 1000 nT) geomagnetic pulsations of the Рс5 range, evidently of a non-resonant nature; the amplitude of the Y component of waves considerably exceeded that of the Х component. In the recovery phase of the magnetic storm, the tangential discontinuity in the IMF caused a substorm observed near the polar boundary of the auroral oval in the global scale in the longitude, from the evening sector to midday hours. In the daytime sector, the magnetic bay was observed several minutes later than in the nighttime sector and rapidly moved to the pole, which can be interpreted as the motion to the pole of the boundary between closed and open geomagnetic field lines and contraction of the auroral oval.

Interplay of source/seed electrons and wave-particle interactions in producing relativistic electron PSD enhancements in the outer Van Allen belt

We perform a superposed epoch analysis on two groups of selected geospace disturbance events, emerging from single and isolated interplanetary drivers, and resulting in either the enhancement or the depletion of the average relativistic electron Phase Space Density (PSD). We investigate the occurrence of behavioural/temporal patterns of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters, chorus and ULF Pc5 wave activity, and the source/seed electron PSD in the outer Van Allen radiation belt. Our results indicate that the source electron population of μ = 10 MeV/G exhibits a similar behaviour during both event groups, while the μ = 1 MeV/G population can be considered as negligible for the whole process of wave excitation and electron energisation. Moreover, events that result in relativistic electron enhancement are characterised by statistically stronger and prolonged storm, substorm and wave activity, combined with an abundance of seed electrons of μ = 100 MeV/G, mostly at L* = 4–5, the nominal heart of the outer radiation belt.

Outer radiation belt and inner magnetospheric response to sheath regions of coronal mass ejections: a statistical analysis

Abstract. The energetic electron content in the Van Allen radiation belts surrounding the Earth can vary dramatically at several timescales, and these strong electron fluxes present a hazard for spacecraft traversing the belts. The belt response to solar wind driving is, however, largely unpredictable, and the direct response to specific large-scale heliospheric structures has not been considered previously. We investigate the immediate response of electron fluxes in the outer belt that are driven by sheath regions preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated wave activity in the inner magnetosphere. We consider the events recorded from 2012 to 2018 in the Van Allen Probes era to utilise the energy- and radial-distance-resolved electron flux observations of the twin spacecraft mission. We perform a statistical study of the events by using the superposed epoch analysis in which the sheaths are superposed separately from the ejecta and resampled to the same average duration. Our results show that the wave power of ultra-low frequency Pc5 and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, as measured by a Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), is higher during the sheath than during the ejecta. However, the level of chorus wave power, as measured by the Van Allen Probes, remains approximately the same due to similar substorm activity during the sheath and ejecta. Electron flux enhancements are common at low energies (<1 MeV) throughout the outer belt (L = 3–6), whereas depletion predominantly occurs at high energies for high radial distances (L>4). It is distinctive that the depletion extends to lower energies at larger distances. We suggest that this L-shell and energy-dependent depletion results from the magnetopause shadowing that dominates the losses at large distances, while the wave–particle interactions dominate closer to the Earth. We also show that non-geoeffective sheaths cause significant changes in the outer belt electron fluxes.

An artificial neural network model of electron fluxes in the Earth’s central plasma sheet: a THEMIS survey

The Earth’s central plasma sheet plays an important role in mass and energy transport in the whole magnetosphere. Here, we first present a new approach, i.e., an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, to investigate the electron number fluxes in the central plasma sheet. With the time series of 8 solar wind/geomagnetic indices and spatial locations as inputs, the model has been trained, validated, and tested with three isolated groups of measurements from Time History of Events and Macroscale Interaction during the Substorm (THEMIS) – A/D/E spacecraft from April 1, 2007 to December 30, 2015. The plasma sheet electron flux is shown to be accurately reproduced by the ANN model with a total correlation coefficient (R) above ∼0.91 and a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) less than 0.36 between the data and model target in a spatial region from radial distance 7 RE to 12 RE (where RE is the Earth’s radius) at the nightside of between 18 MLT through 24 MLT and up to 0.6 MLT (Magnetic Local Time) for energies at 0.06 – 293 keV. Global and spectral distributions of reproduced values can also capture the dawn-dusk asymmetry and the dependence on radial distances of plasma sheet electron fluxes. Our developed artificial neural network (ANN) therefore has a good capability in statistically reproducing the plasma sheet electron fluxes for a variety of substorm activities, and can be readily adopted for building up the boundary conditions for physics-based simulation efforts that model the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons and other parts of the terrestrial magnetosphere.

Solar activity phase dependence of the magnetospheric processes and relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

This study aims to investigate the effects of the solar activity phases on the magnetospheric processes in relation to daily relativistic electron ($E>2$ MeV) dynamics at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) during Solar Cycles 23–24. GOES observations indicate that in the descending phase the electron fluxes are seasonally dependent with largest flux in equinoctial periods, relatively high, and 27-day recurrent, while in the maximum phases they are relatively low and nonrecurrent. The electron fluxes are relatively low and partially recurrent in the ascending phases. The cross correlation coefficients (c.c.s) of daily $K_{\textrm{p}}$–$V_{\textrm{sw}}$, $K_{\textrm{p}}$–$AE$, $K_{\textrm{p}}$–$AL$ evolve in the similar trend for both solar cycles: highest during the descending phases, lower in the ascending phases, and lowest in the maximum and minimum phases. The correlation of $K_{\textrm{p}}$–viscous term is strongest during descending phases and weakest around the maximum phases. The correlation of $K_{\textrm{p}}$–merging term slightly varies in a chaotic way from one solar phase to another, but drops to its lowest value in the solar minimum. The correlation analysis results signify the role of the solar activity in controlling the solar wind–magnetosphere couplings. Two case studies during maximum (2000) and descending (2017) phases indicate that the solar activity dependence of the magnetospheric processes and relativistic electrons is characterized by substorm activity and solar wind drivers. Most of the substorms induced by coronal mass ejections in the maximum phase exhibit strong but short and non-repetitive features that associate with low electron fluxes at GEO. In contrast, high intensity, prolonged, and repetitive substorm activities induced by high-speed solar winds are the main cause of the relativistic electron enhancements during the descending phases. The enhancements strongly depend on $V_{\textrm{sw}}$ and $\Sigma K_{\textrm{p}}$ in which only appropriate $V_{\textrm{sw}}$ and $\Sigma K_{\textrm{p}}$ are required. In the descending phase, the requirements for the flux enhancements to $\geq 10^{3}$ cm−2 sr−1 s−1 are the simultaneity of $V_{\textrm{sw}}>500$ km/s and the prolongation of $\Sigma K_{\textrm{p}}>220$ and to $\geq 10^{4}$ cm−2 sr−1 s−1 when $V_{\textrm{sw}}\geq 630$ km/s and $\Sigma K_{\textrm{p}}>227$. Furthermore, the correlations of $\Sigma K_{\textrm{p}}$ and log-electron fluxes are stronger in the descending/ascending phases than in the maximum phase, while the time lag between them is longer in the maximum phase. The remarkable correlations of $V_{\textrm{sw}}$–$K_{\textrm{p}}$ and in the descending phase indicate appropriate magnetospheric convection in association with the repetitive substorms that can effectively trigger the stochastic mechanisms of electron acceleration. The results are extensively discussed in the light of observations and current theories of radiation belt dynamics.

IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA DURING APRIL 12–15, 2016 GEOMAGNETIC STORMS

We present the results of the complex study of ionospheric parameter variations during two geomagnetic storms, which occurred on April 12–15, 2016. The study is based on data from a set of radiophysical and optical instruments. Both the storms with no sudden commencement were generated by high-speed streams from a coronal hole. Despite the minor intensity of the storms (Dst ≥ –55 and –59 nT), we have revealed a distinct ionospheric response to these disturbances. A negative response of electron density and F2-layer critical frequency was observed during the main phase of both the storms. The amplitude of the negative response was higher for the second storm. The period of negative electron density deviations was accompanied by an increase in the peak height, as well as by the downward plasma drift in the evening and night hours, which is not typical of quiet conditions. We have also recorded sharp peaks in the AATR (Along Arc TEC Rate) index and in total electron content noise spikes on average 2–2.5 times. This indicates an intensification of small-scale ionospheric disturbances caused by disturbed geomagnetic conditions and high substorm activity.

Возмущения ионосферы над Восточной Сибирью во время геомагнитных бурь 12–15 апреля 2016 г.

We present the results of the complex study of ionospheric parameter variations during two geomagnetic storms, which occurred on April 12–15, 2016. The study is based on data from a set of radiophysical and optical instruments. Both the storms with no sudden commencement were generated by high-speed streams from a coronal hole. Despite the minor intensity of the storms (Dst ≥ –55 and –59 nT), we have revealed a distinct ionospheric response to these disturbances. A negative response of electron density and F2-layer critical frequency was observed during the main phase of both the storms. The amplitude of the negative response was higher for the second storm. The period of negative electron density deviations was accompanied by an increase in the peak height, as well as by the downward plasma drift in the evening and night hours, which is not typical of quiet conditions. We have also recorded sharp peaks in the AATR (Along Arc TEC Rate) index and in total electron content noise spikes on average 2–2.5 times. This indicates an intensification of small-scale ionospheric disturbances caused by disturbed geomagnetic conditions and high substorm activity.

Extreme Field-Aligned Currents during Magnetic Storms of the 24th Solar Cycle: March 2015 and September 2017

Characteristics of field-aligned currents (FACs) obtained from the observations of SWARM satellites during two strong magnetic storms in March 16–19, 2015 and September 6–9, 2017 are presented. The storms were accompanied by high-intensity substorms. Satellites crossed the dusk, noon, pre- and after midnight MLT sectors. It was shown that variations in FAC density and the latitudinal position of the equatorial FAC boundaries are controlled by both the development of the storm and, to a considerable degree, substorm activity. The average densities of downward and upward FACs reach 3–4 μA/m2 at a substorm’s peak, while the undisturbed level is about 0.2 μA/m2. The minimum latitude of equatorial FAC boundaries is limited to 50° MLat. Large-scale FACs consist of small-scale filamentary structures with high current density, which are always present in SWARM observations. Small-scale peak currents with a density of 50–100 µA/m2 appear during periods of a general increase in density during activation of substorms. Local increases in concentration and temperature of electrons show that the current structure can be associated with a mesoscale discrete auroral arc.

Comparison of Long‐Term Lightning Activity and Inner Radiation Belt Electron Flux Perturbations

AbstractLightning discharges are known to inject whistler waves into the inner magnetosphere over a wide region around their source. When a discharge occurs, it radiates electromagnetic energy into the Earth‐ionosphere waveguide, some of which couples into the whistler mode and propagates through the ionospheric plasma away from the Earth. Previous studies have discussed the effects of whistler‐induced electron precipitation and radiation belt losses associated with lightning. However, to date, there has been no research on the long‐term effects of this accumulated impact. Here, we use data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network, which has continuously monitored global lightning activity since 2004, to obtain 1 year of lightning data and categorized them into L‐shell ranges, hemispheres, and magnetic local times. We then use Van Allen Probe's Energetic Particle, Composition, and Thermal Plasma Suite from both satellites (RBSP‐A/B) to measure particle fluxes in the inner belts under the same criteria. We compare these two quantities by calculating the correlation coefficients between selected electron energy channels, including pitch angle distribution, and lightning activity under different conditions. Although we found a weak to moderate relationship between lightning activity and electron flux perturbations, the correlation was not as strong as expected from theoretical predictions. Variations in electron fluxes related to substorm activity were of the same order of magnitude as that from lightning activity, even at low L shells.

Distinct Formation and Evolution Characteristics of Outer Radiation Belt Electron Butterfly Pitch Angle Distributions Observed by Van Allen Probes

AbstractUsing Van Allen Probes pitch angle‐resolved electron flux data, we report intriguing events of electron butterfly pitch angle distributions (PADs) at L > ~5.5 on the nightside with distinct durations, i.e., about 9 hr for the 28–29 April 2013 event and over 2 days for the 2–5 May 2013 event. The formation and evolution of the short‐duration electron butterfly PADs exhibited insignificant dependence on electron energy, probably resulting from a combination of drift shell splitting, magnetopause shadowing, and wave diffusion, but the long‐duration electron butterfly evolution presented strong energy dependence, likely mainly attributed to interactions with MS waves. Both the short‐duration and long‐duration electron butterfly PADs disappeared closely related to enhanced substorm activities, while the responsible waves could be plasmaspheric hiss or chorus waves. Our results demonstrate that radiation belt electron butterfly PADs are naturally complex in both spatial and temporal scales and well connected to solar wind condition, substorm activity, and magnetospheric wave distribution.

Using PC indices to predict violent GIC events threatening power grids

The aim of the present contribution is to investigate the timing relations between enhancements in the Polar Cap (PC) indices and power grid disturbances related to geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). The polar cap indices, PCN (North) and PCS (South), are based on measurements of geomagnetic variations in the central polar caps. These variations are strongly related to the transpolar convection of plasma and magnetic fields driven by the solar wind. During cases of enhanced merging processes at the front of the magnetosphere and subsequent tailward convection of plasma and embedded magnetic fields, the magnetospheric tail configuration may accumulate excess energy, which upon release may cause violent substorm activity. Earlier reports have disclosed remarkably lengthy intervals, ranging up to several hours, of elevated PC index values preceding GIC-related power grid disruptions. The present investigation has shown that the delays of typically 3–4 h between increases in the PC indices and GIC-related power grid disturbances are related to displacements of the substorm processes responsible for strong GIC events to subauroral latitudes where vulnerable power grids reside. The results have shown that PC index values remaining above an “alert level” of 10 mV/m through more than 1 h indicate a high risk for violent GIC events that may threaten power grids and other vulnerable technical systems. These results support the application of real-time PC indices in space weather monitoring and forecast services.

Solar cycle evolution of ULF wave power in solar wind and on ground

The solar cycle evolution of the ultra-low frequency (ULF) power was studied in solar wind and on ground. We aim finding out how the ULF power in interplanetary and on ground magnetic field evolves over the solar cycle 23 (SC23) and how well do they follow each other in monthly time scales. The hourly power of the ULF waves was computed in the Pc5 frequency range 2–7 mHz for years 1998–2008. The highest wave power in SC23 is found to occur in late 2003 and the lowest at the solar minimum. Ground ULF power follows the IMF power and solar wind speed, particularly well during declining phase. The ULF power in winter exceeds the ULF power in other seasons during the declining phase of SC23, while equinoxes dominate in the ascending phase and the solar maximum. The ground ULF power was found to rise with magnetic latitude from 54° to 73°, after which Pc5 power decreases towards the polar cap. The Pc5 power in the auroral zone is larger in the nightside than the dayside due to substorm activity implying that magnetotail processes are an important contributor to the nightside ULF power.

Comparison of Multiple and Logistic Regression Analyses of Relativistic Electron Flux Enhancement at Geosynchronous Orbit Following Storms

AbstractMany factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions.

Magnetic local time asymmetries in precipitating electron and proton populations with and without substorm activity

Abstract. The magnetic local time (MLT) dependence of electron (0.15–300 keV) and proton (0.15–6900 keV) precipitation into the atmosphere based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration POES and METOP satellite data during 2001–2008 was described. Using modified APEX coordinates the influence of particle energy, substorm activity and geomagnetic disturbance on the MLT flux distribution was statistically analysed. Some of the findings are the following. a. Substorms mostly increase particle precipitation in the night sector by about factor 2–4, but can also reduce it in the day sector.b. MLT dependence can be assigned to particles entering the magnetosphere at the cusp region and magnetospheric particles in combination with energy-specific drifts (in agreement with Newell et al., 2009).c. MLT flux differences of up to 2 orders of magnitude have been identified inside the auroral oval during geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The novelty here is the comprehensive coverage of energy bands and the focus on asymmetry.d. The maximum flux asymmetry ratio depends on particle energy, decreasing with Kp for low energetic particles and increasing with Kp for higher energy electrons, while high energy protons show a more complex dependency. While some aspects may already have been known, the quantification of the flux asymmetry sheds new light on MLT variation.