Substantial Policy Change Research Articles

Childbearing under different family policy schemes

Objective: This study assesses whether and how changes in family policies are associated with first and second births in Finland, Germany and the United Kingdom, and whether these associations differ by women’s education. Background: Family policies are expected to impact the direct and indirect costs of childbearing by providing resources that influence the monetary and non-monetary costs of having children. The countries analysed here have undergone substantial changes in family policy throughout the two decades analysed, but each country has changed different aspects of their policies, and they have done so in different policy environments. Method: We analysed women aged 18–44 and their transitions to first and second births using register data from Finland (N = 57,518 / 21,685) and panel data from Germany (G-SOEP, N=37,716 / 16,756) and the UK (BHPS and Understanding Society, N = 13,213 / 9,992) complemented with annual family policy information. The data were analysed using logistic regression models and interactions, and the results are presented as average marginal effects. Results: The results suggest that the association between changes in family policies and transitions to first and second child birth varied by birth parity, women’s education level, and between countries. For example in Finland, increases in paternity leave length were associated with greater propensities to transition to first birth for highly educated women, whereas increases in child allowances had a similar association for lower educated women. In Germany, reductions in maternity leave length were associated with increased transitions to first birth for higher educated women. In the UK, increases in maternity leave length were associated with greater transitions to first births among all women. Conclusion: The results highlight that to the extent that family policies influence fertility, they do so depending on both the country context and often differentially within countries based on women’s education level and birth parity.

Ageing risks in four Asian Tigers: global health crisis and implications for productive welfare regimes

PurposeThis article focuses on the continuity and changes in the Productive Welfare Regimes and investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic and population ageing can influence the established systems in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.Design/methodology/approachOur research is based on document review, investigating intricate situations with numerous aspects and providing an excellent opportunity for innovation and examining theoretical presumptions in welfare regime theory, as well as exploring the complicated policy trajectories that varies among cases.FindingsOur findings reveal that social policy responses to COVID-19 have been characterized by adopting the market-conforming role of social policy for the elderly. This is shown by many policy measures focusing on self-sufficiency and an active labour market, signalling that the COVID-19 pandemic and population ageing pressure here are viewed as an economic issue over social rights. The economic-first was adopted to maintain their proximity to the global economy as key sources of their social policy development. We can conclude by emphasizing that the responses to COVID-19 have exposed deficiencies in certain existing social policies. Yet, they have not been sufficient to catalyse substantial policy changes across domains where such change had not already been initiated, thus allowing welfare regimes to remain within productivist boundaries.Originality/valueThis study responds to the current debate on the welfare regime continuity and adaptation in East Asia and suggests a new perspective of policy process in the times of insecurity.

‘Freedom within the framework’? The everyday politics of religion, state repression and migration in Vietnam’s borderlands and beyond

ABSTRACT How do peripheral, ‘voiceless’ people engage with politics in authoritarian contexts where formal politics is not a viable option? This article demonstrates the value of applying an everyday politics perspective to grassroots religious activity and mobilities, by providing an in-depth case study of a recently Christianised ethnic minority group based in Vietnam’s politically sensitive borderlands. In the face of religious persecution and social conflict sponsored by an overbearing state, hundreds of thousands of ordinary ethnic Hmong Protestants subtly resist, evade and/or support religious policies through mundane, everyday behaviour which have unintended geopolitical consequences, collectively undermine state legitimacy and can be credited with substantial policy changes over time. Based on rich qualitative data, I argue that a careful investigation of everyday spaces as sites of political contestation not only highlights the agency of non-elite religious actors but can also reveal insights about the nature of the ‘top-down’ forces they engage with.

Passing a Bill “Nobody Especially Cared About": The Creation of the Department of Education

This article is a case study of the creation of the Department of Education. President Jimmy Carter promised to create a separate Department of Education during his 1976 campaign. The National Education Association (NEA) provided the impetus for the legislation but it was the White House Domestic Policy staff and OMB Director that guided the bill through by working to narrow the scope of the conflict over the proposed legislation to ensure passage. Using both primary and secondary sources I explore the methods the Carter administration used to advance passage of the bill. Carter domestic policy advisor Elizabeth Abramowitz noted that, “if we get the Department, it will be a good example of the President’s ability to get something through Congress nobody especially cared about” (Abramowitz 1979). As a result, a new cabinet agency was created with little broad-based political support and substantive policy change, creating a Department that continues to be vulnerable to calls for abolishment partially due to a lack of broad public support.

GENERAL ELECTIONS AND THE STOCK MARKET

India holds general elections every five years to elect representatives for the Lok Sabha, ultimately determining the Prime Minister. These recurrent elections significantly impact the political landscape and investment environment, influencing economic policies, regulatory frameworks, and sectoral dynamics. Indian elections are riddled with far-reaching consequences, with their effects not only limiting themselves to the political landscape but also marginally affecting the stock market and economy. Uncertainty is ubiquitous; ranging from the common sundry labourer to the most accomplished business, a sense of unease underlines the election period. The volatility caused to stock market performance remains the primary anxiety for the market participants, analysts, and policymakers, and there is a certain element of political risk associated within the psyche of potential stakeholders. The relation between political risk and the capital market is not so significant in the long term although it does affect the market in the short term as it dries out quickly soon after the election result is announced. The election result primarily increases the volatility in the market for a few days. Studies have found that the highest average return occurred once the result was announced and subsequently settled down in a few days. A spike of variability was observed in the next seven days period after the election result announcement. It has been observed that the pre-election period usually gets more affected than the post-election period. Political transitions can trigger substantial changes in government policies, economic priorities, and regulations, subsequently affecting various sectors of the economy and companies, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the actual impact of general elections on the stock market. In many instances, the market only substantially fluctuates as a result of political announcements such as law amendments, regulation promulgation, and national elections. However, while

Governing Through Gridlock: Bill Composition under Divided Government

AbstractWhat is the effect of divided government on issue attention in state legislatures? Much of the research on divided government examines how it affects the enactment of significant legislation but does not consider other effects on legislative behavior. In this article, I propose a new theory of the relationship between divided government and legislative activity. Regardless of partisan control, reelection-minded legislators face pressure to deliver benefits to voters, yet divided government can make substantive policy change difficult. As a result of these competing pressures, under divided government legislators increasingly turn their focus to bills that benefit their local constituents, which are seen as easier to enact and allow them to engage in advertising, credit claiming, and position taking. Consistent with this theory, I find that under divided government, legislators introduce bills at the same rate, but the type of legislation introduced shifts away from statewide policy changes and towards district-specific legislation.

What drives major tax reform? Implications for taxing the rich

Abstract This paper examines some drivers behind substantial changes in tax policy in recent decades. Using existing theories and our definition of ‘beneficial major tax reforms’, we discuss three case studies: the US in the 1980s, the UK in the 1980s, and the UK’s failed ‘mini-budget’ of 2022. Our analysis reveals that the US’s TRA86 has, to some degree, improved efficiency, while the UK reforms may have exacerbated inequality with ambiguous effects on efficiency. Finally, we outline the potential for future reforms and conclude that political conditions are more likely to instigate major change than economic motivations.

Search-and-rescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration: Predictive modeling to answer causal queries in migration research

State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.

Evolution of County Socio–Ecological Systems in Nature Reserves in Western China Over the Past 30 Years

The evolution process of socio–ecological systems from 1990 to 2020 in the Tianzhu Tibetan Autonomous County, located in the National Key Ecological Function Area of western China, was analyzed quantitatively based on resilience theory and methodology combined with catastrophe theory and adaptive cycle theory, through field investigation, questionnaires and interviews, social data collection and remote sensing data analysis. The results show that the coordinated development of socio–ecological systems has made great progress in recent decades in the study area, and the coordinated development of social systems and ecosystems has a high degree of coupling and a strong connection. Changes in ecosystem resilience regularly surpassed changes in the social system, indicating the significant impact and success of ecological protection policies and projects in recent decades. In future, improvements in the social sub-system will be the key to developing the socio–ecological system in the study area. Enhancing social sub-system resiliency, implementing transformational development and green industry development, and transforming and realizing ecological product values are important topics for further investigation in the study area. Substantial changes in policy, production, population and climate change are needed to promote the evolution of socio–ecological systems. Stable national policies are crucial for improving people's livelihoods and providing ecological protections.

Legislative Gridlock and Policymaking Through the Appropriations Process

Divergent preferences within and across American lawmaking institutions make it difficult to enact legislation. Yet, individual legislators and parties have incentives to effect policy change, even during periods of gridlock. We claim appropriations offer an alternative means of policymaking when legislation is likely to be unsuccessful using authorizations because appropriations bills have an extreme reversion point. Using an original dataset of appropriations laws, we measure the quantity of policy enacted given distributions of House, Senate, and executive preferences. The findings show that a larger gridlock interval and greater distance between the House and Senate medians promote the use of appropriations bills as substantive policymaking vehicles. This effect is especially pronounced when new chamber majorities come to power. We conclude that divergent preferences among lawmaking institutions affect legislative productivity, but winning coalitions can still make substantive policy changes using unorthodox lawmaking processes.

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CORPORATE INSOLVENCY RESOLUTION PROCESS UNDER INDIA’S INSOLVENCY AND BANKRUPTCY CODE, 2016 IN RESOLUTION OF DISTRESSED ASSETS AND CONTAINMENT OF NON-PERFORMING ASSETS AND REDUCTION IN OCCURRENCE OF FRAUDS OF BANKS IN INDIA

The paper describes the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 of India and its role in resolution of distressed assets and how and in what manner it has helped in containing Non-performing assets and also how and to what extent it has contributed to reduction in occurrence of frauds in banks in India and appraises its efficiency against a number of benchmarks. The goal of the Code is to consolidate numerous legislations on the subject and provide a single, unified and vital platform for revival and/or liquidation of corporate and non-corporate bodies and self- proprietors. The main and substantial policy and procedural changes envisaged in the Code targets to salvage the movable and immovable assets engaged in the distressed organizations in a time-bound manner to protect the interests of not only creditors but also employees, workers, government dues and others involved. An attempt has been made to understand as to how far the corporate insolvency resolution process under the code is effective for resolving distressed assets and containing non-performing assets and occurrence of frauds in banks of India and why it is being recognized that bankruptcy law in India is not enough to manage the bad loan situation in India and more action is required on the NPAs than what is available through the Bankruptcy Code.

Negative effects of long parental leave on maternal health: Evidence from a substantial policy change in Austria

I study the effect of parental leave duration on maternal health in the short- to medium-run leveraging variation in parental leave duration induced by an Austrian policy reform in the year 2000. Using rich administrative data and a regression discontinuity framework, I find that long parental leave of 2.5 years instead of 1.5 years deteriorates maternal health. Worse mental health mainly drives this effect. Alternative channels such as differential fertility, long-term employment effects, a change in disposable income or alternative mode of childcare are unlikely to be of main importance. There is substantial heterogeneity with longer leave spells being less harmful for mothers with unhealthy babies proxied by low birth weight.

Understanding Contemporary Security: A Prolegomenon to the Interplay Between Technology, Innovation and Policy Responses

Contemporary security is shaped by a variety of factors which determine the changing dynamics of connections and interdependencies within and between social groups and political actors. The growing importance of technology and innovation for states and societies has been a critical factor in the infrastructural, organizational and decision-making dimensions. This article aims to integrate some aspects of contemporary security into current dynamics of technology and innovation as vehicles of rapid and substantial changes in security policies and actions. Designed as an essay based on qualitative method in social sciences, this paper raises theoretical and empirical questions concerning modernization and innovation as determinants of contemporary security structures and policies. The empirical dimension of technology, innovation and politics are presented in the microscale (local security), in the mesoscale (state security, national security, sectoral security) and in the macroscale (international security in regional and global dimensions), as well as from the cross-sectional (transversal) perspective.

CHANGING THE NARRATIVE ON NURSING HOME CARE

Abstract Redesigning our nursing home care system will require substantial policy change, and we know that policy change needs an effective framing strategy. This panel will include speakers who have been studying public mindsets and opinions about nursing home care and its implications for advocacy communications. We will also talk about the implications of this research for the larger reframing aging initiative.

Assessing the perception of E-scooters as a practical and equitable first-mile/last-mile solution

E-scooters have disrupted and altered the urban mobility landscape. During their introductory period, they have been commonly touted as part of a larger micromobility solution that erases equity barriers and solves the first-mile/last-mile problem. However, few studies in the nascent e-scooter literature have considered these claims. In this study, we used a d-efficient method to design and administer a stated choice experiment (SCE) to students at Portland State University (PSU) (n = 1,968). In the SCE, students were given a three-mode labelled choice set consisting of three travel modes: car, bike, and e-scooter + MAX light rail. (The e-scooter + MAX light rail choice is multimodal, with the e-scooter acting as the first-mile access mode). We generated attitudinal indices using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) in order to control for mode perception. To demonstrate the relationship of travel time and cost in addition to other covariates on mode choice, we estimated a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. We performed elasticity and sensitivity analyses to uncover factors that encouraged first-mile/last-mile e-scooter usage. We then used the model to generate catchment area maps for multimodal trips in the Portland area. Results indicated that e-scooters were lackluster in bringing racial and gender equity in transportation. Additionally, we found that there was no place in Portland where combining an e-scooter and light rail to travel to PSU was most utilitarian compared to bike or private car. This suggests that e-scooters are not perceived as a preferred solution to the first-mile/last-mile problem. Yet, our findings revealed “dials” that can be tweaked through policy measures in order to promote this kind of use, including parking pricing, travel times, fares, and traveler attitudes towards modes. Overall, our analysis of the implementation of e-scooters suggests that their promise is overstated, at least without substantial policy changes to encourage desired use cases.

Bolsonaro's far‐right populist environmental and climate diplomacy

AbstractBrazilian diplomacy has historically used the environmental agenda as a soft‐power tool, particularly regarding climate change, but this situation has drastically changed under Jair Bolsonaro's administration. Imitating other far‐right populists and their antienvironmental rhetoric, especially Donald Trump's, Bolsonaro attempted to use the topic to inflame his domestic supporters against international players. On the one hand, this strategy weakened Brazilian influence in bilateral and multilateral forums; on the other, dismantling environmental policies and governance structures had substantial consequences, especially in deforestation rates and attacks on traditional communities. This article analyzes the Bolsonaro administration's stand on the environment and climate issues and the repercussions of its policies and rhetoric in Brazil's domestic and foreign scenarios. We conclude that changes in the international context, especially after Trump's electoral defeat in the United States, led to a softening of Bolsonaro's international environmental and climate discourse, with no substantial policy changes internally. Although climate denialism is a centerpiece of the discourse of far‐right populists, this empirical analysis indicates that, in the case of Brazil, this narrative did not bring significant results to Bolsonaro in terms of support or international relevance.

The past, present, and future of antibiotics.

Antibiotics have transformed modern medicine. They are essential for treating infectious diseases and enable vital therapies and procedures. However, despite this success, their continued use in the 21st century is imperiled by two orthogonal challenges. The first is that the microbes targeted by these drugs evolve resistance to them over time. The second is that antibiotic discovery and development are no longer cost-effective using traditional reimbursement models. Consequently, there are a dwindling number of companies and laboratories dedicated to delivering new antibiotics, resulting in an anemic pipeline that threatens our control of infections. The future of antibiotics requires innovation in a field that has relied on highly traditional methods of discovery and development. This will require substantial changes in policy, quantitative understanding of the societal value of these drugs, and investment in alternatives to traditional antibiotics. These include narrow-spectrum drugs, bacteriophage, monoclonal antibodies, and vaccines, coupled with highly effective diagnostics. Addressing the antibiotic crisis to meet our future needs requires considerable investment in both research and development, along with ensuring a viable marketplace that encourages innovation. This review explores the past, present, and future of antimicrobial therapy.

Concurrent pressures of mass protests: the dual influences of #BlackLivesMatter on state-level policing reform adoption

ABSTRACT This article seeks to clarify the relationship between Black Lives Matter and the enactment of state-level police reform by engaging with a broader discussion surrounding policy innovation that has taken shape in recent decades. We ask, what contributes to the differences in state responsiveness to the BLM movement? Moreover, is there a link between the protests, themselves, and state-level police reform enactments? We find, a state’s response to demands for police reform is heavily dependent on a combination of both the conditions within their state as well as their position in the overall police reform diffusion space. More importantly, we find that the BLM movement, itself, played dual roles in applying pressure on states to enact reforms from August 2014 – December 2020: (1) reform efforts on the part of lawmakers were proportionate to the frequency that BLM protesters take their grievances to the street, and (2) policy adoptions are largely shaped by the state-to-state diffusion network where states with the highest frequencies of protests are most influential. The results of this analysis should serve as a sharp rebuttal for those that question and downplay the effectiveness of Black-led social movements in achieving substantive policy change.

Why is progressive policy reform in Kosovo uncertain, despite the accelerated power shift to the left?

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the arrival in power, for the first time, of a left-wing majority in Kosovo. Nowhere in the Western Balkans and Europe was the impact of the pandemic on politics so salient and extensive. The power shift created an unlikely opportunity for progressive social policy change. However, as shown by policy responses during the first year of the pandemic, substantial policy change is still uncertain. Although political parties have begun to matter more in policy choices, expansive change is constrained by the broader unfavourable conjuncture involving, among others, the existing neo-liberal welfare regime, its feedback on policy learning, mobile right-wing actors with influence in state institutions and global organisations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Union – all of which may rather favour the status quo.

Performance measurement and management in the British higher education sector.

Theoretical enquiry and empirical studies demonstrate the significance of performance management (PM) in the higher education sector and it is a fulcrum for developing a strategic role for people management within universities. In spite of the perceived weaknesses of people management in the higher education sector, in general, the current period of rapid and substantial contextual change may necessitate greater formalisation of HR practices across the British higher education sector. In addition to the changing role of the HR function and line managers, these developments may result in an increasingly stringent performance regime across the sector, especially in more hard-pressed institutions. Through a literature review and a pilot study, this paper attempts to address two main research questions: (i) what are the current performance management practices in the British Higher Education sector? and (ii) what needs to be done to strategically align these practices within HEIs in the UK? This paper discusses the wider literature related to performance management in general and to academic institutions in particular. We also undertook a small-scale qualitative study to explore the views of HR professionals on the need for, and the current performance measurement systems in their universities in the UK. The preliminary findings confirmed that PM is a key issue in the respondents' institutions, with substantial and recent changes in policy. This underscores the need for a large-scale research agenda to capture the current dynamics of change the sector is undergoing. The paper concludes by stimulating a policy debate and placing a number of research calls, along with suggestions on how these research questions may be investigated.