Subset Of Traders Research Articles

Advice in the marketplace: a laboratory study

There is substantial evidence that the decisions of experienced and inexperienced agents differ in ways that impact both individual earnings and aggregate market outcomes. Typically, such evidence is gathered by studying experience as it accumulates within subjects over time. We examine a new question; whether behaviors associated with experience can be transferred directly to new market participants. Specifically, we study the intergenerational transmission of information, including direct advice, in experimental asset markets. Empirical results suggest that advice is a substitute for experience. Prices in sessions with advised traders shift towards fundamentals—a pattern consonant with prior work exploring the impact of own-experience on pricing dynamics. Further, convergence is observed in mixed-markets where only a subset of traders are advised.

Price efficiency and trading behavior in limit order markets with competing insiders

We study price efficiency and trading behavior in laboratory limit order markets with asymmetrically informed traders. Markets differ in the number of insiders present and in the subset of traders who receive information about the number of insiders present. We observe that price efficiency (i) is the higher the higher the number of insiders in the market but (ii) is unaffected by changes in the subset of traders who know about the number of insiders present. (iii) Independent of the number of insiders, price efficiency increases gradually over time. (iv) The insiders’ information is reflected in prices via limit (market) orders if the asset’s value is inside (outside) the bid-ask spread. (v) In situations where limit and market orders yield positive profits, insiders clearly prefer market orders, indicating a strong desire for immediate transactions.

Communication in financial markets with several informed traders

This paper investigates the incentives for informed traders in financial markets to reveal their information truthfully to the public. In the model, a subset of traders receive noisy signals about the value of a risky asset. The signals are composed of a directional component (“high” vs. “low”) as well as a precision component that represents the quality of the directional component. Between trading periods, the informed agents make public announcements to the uninformed traders. With a sufficiently large number of informed traders, an equilibrium exists in which the directional components are credibly revealed, but not the precision components. Even though the informed traders retain some of their rivate information, the post-communication estimate of the asset value converges in probability to the full-information estimate as the number of informed traders increases.

Public Communication Devices in Financial Markets

This paper studies the role of public communication devices for information aggregation in financial markets. The paper investigates the incentives for informed traders to reveal their information truthfully to the public. In the model, a subset of traders receives noisy signals about the value of a risky asset. Between trading periods, these agents post messages on a public communication device. Uninformed traders, called the public, read these messages. In addition, noise traders are present to facilitate trade. Informative (i.e. fully revealing) equilibria exist if the number of informed traders is sufficiently large and the number of noise traders is sufficiently small. The reason is that informed traders are informationally small enough to refrain from market manipulation and trade on their private signals only. After these initial trades, they announce their signals truthfully in an effort to push the market price in a direction that supports the initial trades.

The Effects of Subject Pool and Design Experience on Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental asset markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience (i.e., previous experience in a market under identical conditions) tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: 1) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have participated in a previous market under identical conditions; 2) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; 3) the heterogeneity of expectations about price changes is smaller in markets with knowledgeable and experienced traders, even if such traders only represent a subset of the market; and 4) individual forecasts of prices are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market, although absolute forecast errors are smaller for subjects who are knowledgeable of financial markets and for those subjects who have participated in a previous market. In sum, our findings suggest that markets populated by at least a subset of knowledgeable and experienced traders behave rationally, even though average individual behavior can be characterized as irrational.

The Endogenous Evolution of Market Institutions An Experimental Investigation

We study an experimental market in which the structure of the information flows is endogenized. When making an offer, traders choose not only the price at which they are prepared to trade, but also the subset of traders they want to inform about the offer. This design allows for two extreme institutions as special cases. If traders always inform every other trader about each offer, the resulting institution is equivalent to a double auction. If, on the other hand, traders always inform only one other trader about each offer, the resulting institution is equivalent to a decentralized bargaining market. The institution that actually evolved in the experiments, however, was in between the two extreme cases. Subjects typically informed all traders of the other market side, but none of their own side. This endogenously evolving institution, however, turned out to have the same properties as the double auction.

Oligoemporistic Competition and the Countervailing Power Hypothesis

The oligoemporistic competition model developed in this paper describes a market situation where market power is exercised by a subset of traders on both sides of the market. It is shown that countervailing power will merely assure that the price level will coincide with the competitive one, but that the allocation of resources can always be improved upon by decreased concentration on either side of the market. La concurrence oligo-emporistique et l'hypothese du pouvoir compensateur. Le modele de concurrence oligo-emporistique developpe dans ce memoire decrit une situation ofu le pouvoir est exerce sur le marche par un sous-groupe de demandeurs et d'offreurs. On montre que le pouvoir compensateur va simplement faire en sorte que le niveau de prix coincide avec le niveau de prix de concurrence, mais qu'on peut toujours ameliorer l'allocation des ressources en reduisant le degre de concentration du cote de l'offre ou de

Group incentive compatibility in a market with indivisible goods

In a market where each trader has one unit of an indivisible good, there are procedures for exchanging goods which result in competitive allocations. One of these procedures, the top trading cycle, has the property that it is in each trader's best interest to report his true preferences over the set of goods. This note shows that no subset of traders can misrepresent their preferences and improve the allocation for all members of the subset. Additionally, if there are no indifferences in the preferences, then some traders in a subset that misrepresents preferences do worse.

On cores and indivisibility

An economic model of trading in commodities that are inherently indivisible, like houses, is investigated from a game-theoretic point of view. The concepts of balanced game and core are developed, and a general theorem of Scarf's is applied to prove that the market in question has a nonempty core, that is, at least one outcome that no subset of traders can improve upon. A number of examples are discussed, and the final section reviews a series of other models involving indivisible commodities, with references to the literature.