Subsequent Offending Research Articles

Debut crimes and chronic offenders in Queensland

We investigate whether the type of crime committed early in an individual's career has a bearing on patterns of subsequent offending (the so-called debut hypothesis) in an Australian setting. Police-recorded crime data from 2008 to 2020 were used and partitioned into cohorts based on the year of the first offence. We computed, for each cohort, the rate at which individuals progressed to established criminal careers conditioned by their first recorded offence. Individuals who commit burglary, vehicle theft, or robbery as their first recorded offence were observed to become chronic offenders at higher rates than those who commit other types of first offences. We also demonstrated that this relationship exists for other dimensions of the criminal career and is time stable. The policy implications of our findings suggest that a combination of opportunity reduction and diversionary policies has the potential to substantially reduce the prospects of chronic criminal careers and their societal impact.

The Short-Term Impact of Formal Controls on Subsequent Offending and Future Formal Controls in a German and UK City

The study of sanctioning effects has a rich history in deterrence and labeling theory. Most analyses have only used official data to study these effects. Yet, some more recent studies indicate that it is necessary to investigate self-reported as well as official data since it appears that sanctioning has differential effects on self-reported delinquency and formal control interventions. The current study contributes to this small body of research by using propensity score matching to analyze panel data from an ongoing English (Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Developmental Study) and a German (Crime in the modern City) study. We estimated average treatment effects of system contacts on both reoffending and subsequent contacts for juveniles living in Peterborough (ENG) and Duisburg (GER). Our findings are that (1) although official contacts have no substantial effects on the prevalence or versatility of reoffending, (2) they substantially increase the risk of a future formal contact. These results were almost identical at both sites, which may indicate a more general finding on the effects of formal control interventions.

Hospital break. An eight-year review of escapes and absconds from two high security forensic centers

BackgroundIncreasing freedom of movement and community reintegration is a vital part of recovery for forensic service users. Clinical teams realize that risk of unauthorized leave exists when granting leave, tasking them with balancing the recovery-based treatment needs of the patients with the larger obligation to protect the public from undue risk of harm. While considerable literature exists on unauthorized leave from acute psychiatric units, there is still little research specific to unauthorized leave from forensic settings. AimsThe aim of this study is twofold. First, to examine the prevalence rates and characteristics of unauthorized leaves (i.e., absconds and escapes) among 654 high security forensic patients. Second, to identify individual patient factors associated with unauthorized leaves. A broad array of risk factors is taken into account, including demographic, clinical, judicial and criminal factors. Principal resultsDuring the 8-year period (17th of November 2014 until 17th of November 2022), there were 59 unauthorized leaves, which represents a very low percentage (0.2%) relative to the total number of leaves. Most patients returned to the hospital or were caught within one week. The reasons that led to an unauthorized leave were in more than half of the incidents frustration and in more than a third goal-directed. Only a minority of the unauthorized leaves was associated with subsequent offending, notwithstanding substance use was more frequent. Patients that absconded or escaped more often had a personality and comorbid substance misuse disorder, but less often a paraphilic disorder. They were younger, had more convictions and higher risk scores. After logistic regression, only personality disorder, comorbid substance misuse disorder and number of convictions were independently associated with unauthorized leave. ConclusionsThe results of this study indicate that ULs occurred rarely, and in most instances, patients returned within a short period without further incidents. Personality disordered patients with comorbid substance misuse and prior convictions posed the greatest risk to abscond or escape. Overall, the rate of unauthorized leaves and subsequent offending was small relative to the total number of leaves. This suggests that the risk for absconding was assessed in an adequate manner by the clinical teams. The study hopefully adds to reducing the stigma towards leaves from forensic psychiatric hospitals.

Do patron bans affect subsequent behaviour? An examination of pre- and post-ban offending for barring notice and prohibition order recipients in Western Australia.

To explore whether receipt of either of two patron banning provisions currently used in Western Australia-in response to alcohol-related disorderly and anti-social behaviour-is associated with changes to subsequent offending. Western Australia Police de-identified the offender records and associated data for 3440 individuals who had received one or more police-imposed barring notice/s between 2011 and 2020, and 319 individuals who had received one or more prohibition orders between 2013 and 2020. The number of offences recorded for each recipient before and after the first notice/order were examined to understand the potential effect of both provisions upon subsequent offending. The low number of repeat barring notices (5% of the total) and prohibition orders (1% of the total) points to their general success. Analysis of offending records before and after receipt/expiry of either provision indicates that both have a generally positive effect on subsequent behaviours. For all barring notice recipients, 52% recorded no further offences and for all prohibition order recipients, 58% recorded no further offences. There was a less positive effect for the sub-set of multiple ban recipients and prolific offenders. Barring notices and prohibition orders appear to have a generally positive effect on subsequent behaviours for the majority of recipients. More targeted interventions are recommended for repeat offenders, for whom patron banning provisions have a more limited effect.

피해자와 가해자 중첩의 인과적 과정

This study investigates the causal process of victim-offender overlap across the adolescent developmental stage. This study hypothesizes that victimization causes subsequent offending; offending causes subsequent victimization; the effect of victimization on offending can be explained by delinquent peers, parental bonds, and self control; the effect of offending on victimization can also be explained by delinquent peers, parental bonds, and self control. Three-wave data from the Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey are used to test hypotheses. The results show that victim-offender overlap represents a dynamic process observed in the short-term and long-term period; the causal process of victim-offender overlap can be better explained by the effect of victimization on offending; the effect of victimization on offending can be explained by delinquent peers and self control; the effect of offending on victimization can be explained by delinquent peers; the most influential factor determining victim-offender overlap is delinquent peers.

Opportunities for prevention: a data-linkage study to inform a public health response to youth offending in the Northern Territory, Australia

BackgroundNumerous studies have demonstrated a strong link between child maltreatment and subsequent youth offending, leading to calls for early intervention initiatives. However, there have been few whole-population studies into the dimensions of statutory child maltreatment responses that can inform these programs. The aim of this study was to investigate the sex-specific association between level and timing of child protection system (CPS) contact and youth offending.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study used linked individual-level records from multiple agencies, for 10,438Aboriginal children born in the Northern Territory between 1999 and 2006. The outcome measure was the first alleged offence. Key explanatory variables were level (no contact through to out-of-home care) and timing (0–4 years, 5–9 years, or both) of CPS contact. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate cumulative incidence and a flexible parametric survival model to estimate hazard ratios (HR).ResultsChildren with no record of CPS contact before age 10 had the lowest cumulative incidence of first alleged offence by age 18 (boys: 23.4% [95%CI:21.0–26.1]; girls: 6.6% [95%CI:5.3–8.2]) and those with a record of out-of-home care the highest CI (boys: 45.5% [95%CI:37.0–54.9]; girls: 18.6% [95%CI:13.0–26.2]). The association of CPS contact with the relative risk of a first alleged offence was greatest for children aged 10–13 years and decreased with age. Timing of CPS contact was also associated with increasing cumulative incidence. The relative risk for first alleged offence was generally higher for children with CPS contact, of any type, during both developmental phases including notifications during both phases (boys, HR at age 11: 8.9 [95%CI:4.2–17.2]; girls, HR at age 11: 13.7 [95%CI:3.8–48.9]) and substantiations during both phases (boys, HR at age 11: 17.0 [95%CI:9.6–30.0]; girls, HR at age 11: 54.1 [95%CI:18.1–162]).ConclusionThe increased risk of offending associated with level and timing of early CPS contact highlights opportunities for a differentiated public health response to improve life trajectories for children and to reduce youth crime. Although children with unsubstantiated notifications of maltreatment do not meet the criteria for a statutory CPS response, the higher risk of offending among these children supports their inclusion in targeted preventive interventions.

The Relationship between Motivations for Joining Gangs and Violent Offending: A Preliminary Test on Self-Determination Theory

ABSTRACT Efforts to better understand violence have often compared gang members to non-gang members, finding, expectedly, that gang members engage in more violent behaviors. Often overlooked, however, is the variation of violence that exists among gang members. This variation may be tied to one’s reasons for joining a gang in the first place. Members join gangs for different reasons, and these reasons may lead to varying criminogenic outcomes. Reasons youth join gangs have previously been categorized into push and pull factors. The current study builds on this classification by adopting self-determination theory, grouping reasons into intrinsic, extrinsic, and mixed motivations. Using a school-based longitudinal sample of adolescents, the current study explores the relationship between motivation behind joining a gang and subsequent violent offending. Results reveal that street gang members who joined gangs for mixed motivations reported more violent offending than those who joined gangs for extrinsic motivation only and those who joined for intrinsic motivation contemporaneously. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed in terms of motivation and peer influence.

Does seeing it make a difference? The self-reported deterrent impact of random breath testing

Introduction: Random Breath Testing (RBT) remains a primary method to both deter and apprehend drink drivers, yet a large proportion of road fatalities continue to be caused by the offense. Outstanding questions remain regarding how much exposure to RBT operations is needed to influence deterrence-based perceptions and subsequent offending. Method: Given this, licensed motorists (N = 961) in Queensland were recruited to complete a questionnaire either in the community (N = 741) or on the side of the road after just being breath tested (N = 243). Survey items measured different types of exposure to RBT operations (e.g., “seen” vs. “being tested”) and subsequent perceptions of apprehension as well as self-reported drink driving behaviors. Results: The key findings that emerged were: motorists were regularly exposed to RBT operations (both viewing and being tested), such exposure was not significantly correlated with perceptions of apprehension certainty, and a sizable proportion reported engaging in drink driving behaviors (e.g., approx. 25%), although roadside participants naturally reported a lower percentage of offending behaviors. Importantly, it was revealed that current “observations” of RBT was sufficient, but not actual levels of active testing (which needed to be doubled). Nevertheless, higher levels of exposure to RBT operations was found to be predictive of a lack of intention to drink and drive again in the future. Conclusions: This paper suggests that mere exposure to enforcement may not create the intended rule compliance, and that the frequency of exposure is also essential for the roadside.

I was like a kid full of revenge: self-reported reasons for sexual offending by men who were sexually abused as children

ABSTRACT It is widely acknowledged that the rate of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) reported by men who sexually offend is elevated relative to the general population. The idea of a “sexually abused-sexual abuser” (SA-SA) cycle is one possible explanation for the relationship between CSA and subsequent sexual offending. The current study explored why sexually abused men went on to sexually offend, through qualitative interviews with 41 SA-SAs attending a community treatment programme in New Zealand. Most of them gave externalising reasons for offending (including anger and revenge towards others, and deviant arousal). There was an even split between those who did/did not see a relationship between their own victimisation and their offending. Of those who perceived this connection, sexualisation, externalisation, and normalisation were themes underlying their motivation to offend. The implications for the treatment of male victims of sexual abuse are discussed.

Criminal thinking and gang affiliation: antecedents and consequences

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between gang affiliation and criminal thinking. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 1,354 youth (1,170 males, 184 females) from the Pathways to Desistance Study served as participants in this study, and a causal mediation path analysis was performed on proactive and reactive criminal thinking, gang affiliation and subsequent offending. Findings Using three waves of data, it was determined that the pathway running from reactive criminal thinking to gang affiliation to proactive criminal thinking was significant, whereas the pathway running from proactive criminal thinking to gang affiliation to reactive criminal thinking was not. A four-wave model, in which violent and income offending were appended to the three-wave model, disclosed similar results. Practical implications Two separate targets for intervention with youth at risk for gang involvement: proactive and reactive criminal thinking. The impulsive, irresponsible, reckless and disinhibited nature of reactive criminal thinking may best be managed with a secondary prevention approach and cognitive-behavioral skills training; the planned, cold, calculating and amoral nature of proactive criminal thinking may best be managed with a tertiary prevention approach and moral retraining. Trauma therapy may be of assistance to youth who have been victimized over the course of their gang experience. Originality/value These findings reveal evidence of a gang selection effect that is independent of the well-documented peer selection effect, in which reactive criminal thinking led to gang affiliation in youthful offenders, particularly non-White offenders, and a gang influence effect, independent of the frequently observed peer selection effect, in which gang affiliation contributed to a rise in proactive criminal thinking.

The Individual-Level Deterrent Effect of “Call-In” Meetings on Time to Re-Arrest

Focused on deterrence popular model to address community-level violence, however little research has examined the individual-level effect of deterrent messaging on subsequent offending. To answer this question, we utilize data on 254 gang- and group-involved probationers and parolees who attended offender “call-in” meetings as part of the Detroit Ceasefire. We employ inverse-probability weighting to construct a counterfactual comparison group from a sample of gang-involved young adults who were not subject to the Ceasefire call-in. We then use a Cox regression to estimate time to re-arrest. We find that individuals who were delivered a deterrent message at a call-in meeting had a longer time to re-arrest compared to a weighted comparison group for up to 3 years following the meeting.

Criminal thinking as a moderator of the perceived certainty–offending relationship: age variations

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study was to determine whether the perceived certainty of punishment and general criminal thinking interact and whether the effect varies as a function of age. Data from all 1354 members (1170 males, 184 females) of the Pathways to Desistance study were used to test whether perceived certainty, general criminal thinking, and their interaction predicted subsequent offending during late adolescence (16–18 years of age) and emerging adulthood (20–22 years of age). The results showed that while perceived certainty and general criminal thinking failed to interact at age 17, general criminal thinking moderated the effect of perceived certainty at age 21. During emerging adulthood, offending was more common and varied in young adults with low certainty perceptions and high criminal thinking than it was in emerging adults with high criminal thinking and high certainty perceptions or low criminal thinking and either high or low certainty perceptions.

Under the radar or under arrest: How is adolescent boys' first contact with the juvenile justice system related to future offending and arrests?

This study examined the extent to which being arrested during adolescence was associated with subsequent self-reported offending and court-recorded arrests. We also examined whether the way in which the justice system processed adolescents was related to the nature of these associations. The sample included 532 boys who had been arrested ("justice-system-involved") and 99 boys who had never been arrested despite engaging in similar illegal behaviors ("no-justice-system-contact"). Data included official arrest records and youths' self-reported illegal behavior at a baseline interview and a follow-up 6 months later. To reduce group differences at baseline, we calculated matching weights with 2 dozen variables and used these weights in all analyses. Results demonstrated that the groups differed in their rate of change in self-reported offending between the 2 interviews and in their likelihood of being arrested during the study period. The no-justice-system-contact group self-reported the same amount of offending at baseline and the follow up, whereas the justice-system-involved youth who received the most lenient disposition (i.e., sanction and dismiss) decreased their self-reported violent, theft or property, and total offending, and the justice-system-involved youth who received the most punitive disposition (i.e., adjudication) increased their self-reported violent offending. All justice-system-involved youth were more likely to be arrested during the study period than the no-justice-system-contact youth, even after accounting for self-reported offending. Thus, even though some justice system interventions were associated with less subsequent offending, involvement with the juvenile justice system during adolescence, in and of itself, is a significant risk factor for repeated contact with the system. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Mediators between Victimization and Offending among Young Men in the Context of General Strain Theory

ABSTRACTThe relationship between victimization and offending is complex.Purpose: This paper simultaneously examines the trajectory of individual, family and neighborhood factors related to victimization and offending. Applying general strain theory, this study posits that victimized youth with little parental monitoring, have a lower sense of self-control and diminish feelings of guilt. In turn, the study hypothesizes that youth with low guilt is more likely to offend if they previously offended.Methods: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was conducted using Wave 1 and Wave 2 data from 625 young males from the Buffalo Longitudinal Study of Young Men (BLSYM).Results: Direct victimization is associated with guilt through a mediated relationship involving past offending. Furthermore, past offending and subsequent offending are mediated by guilt, independent of the weak effect of psychological distress.Discussion: Examining the relationship between victimization, psychological distress, and guilt in predicting trajectories from victimization to offending warrants further attention.

Criminal Justice Contact Across Generations: Assessing the intergenerational Labeling Hypothesis.

The present study assesses the intergenerational labeling hypothesis and examines whether the relationship between a child's involuntary contact with the police and subsequent offending depends on parental arrest history (and its timing in the life course of the child) and parent sex. Using data from 312 parent-child dyads from the Rochester Youth Development Study and Rochester Intergenerational Study, generalized linear regression models estimate the main and interactive effects of a child's involuntary contact and parental arrest history on subsequent delinquency as well as potential mechanisms for deviance amplification. Main effects are consistent with labeling theory and moderation analyses reveal that the impact of involuntary contact on subsequent delinquency depends on parental arrest history. More specifically, contact with the police on subsequent offending is greater when the focal parent has an arrest history, regardless of when the most recent arrest occurs in the life course of the child. However, some differences in the magnitude of the exacerbating effect of recent parental arrest emerged. Results also speak to potential mechanisms across mother-child and father-child dyads with respect to deviance amplification. This research supports the life-course principles of "linked lives" and "timing in lives" and their application to labeling theory in an intergenerational context. To reduce deviance amplification, special attention should be paid to youth who experience a police contact in the context of a parental arrest history.

Court diversion for those with psychosis and its impact on re-offending rates: results from a longitudinal data-linkage study.

With significant numbers of individuals in the criminal justice system having mental health problems, court-based diversion programmes and liaison services have been established to address this problem.AimsTo examine the effectiveness of the New South Wales (Australia) court diversion programme in reducing re-offending among those diagnosed with psychosis by comparing the treatment order group with a comparison group who received a punitive sanction. Those with psychoses were identified from New South Wales Ministry of Health records between 2001 and 2012 and linked to offending records. Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with re-offending. A total of 7743 individuals were identified as diagnosed with a psychotic disorder prior to their court finalisation date for their first principal offence. Overall, 26% of the cohort received a treatment order and 74% received a punitive sanction. The re-offending rate in the treatment order group was 12% lower than the punitive sanction group. 'Acts intended to cause injury' was the most common type of the first principal offence for the treatment order group compared with the punitive sanction group (48% v. 27%). Drug-related offences were more likely to be punished with a punitive sanction than a treatment order (12% v. 2%). Among those with a serious mental illness (i.e. psychosis), receiving a treatment order by the court rather than a punitive sanction was associated with reduced risk for subsequent offending. We further examined actual mental health treatment received and found that receiving no treatment following the first offence was associated with an increased risk of re-offending and, so, highlighting the importance of treatment for those with serious mental illness in the criminal justice system.

Resistance to peer influence and crime desistance in emerging adulthood: A moderated mediation analysis.

The current study sought to determine whether resistance to peer pressure contributes to crime desistance by inhibiting proactive criminal thinking (moral disengagement), a social-cognitive variable that has been found to mediate the peer influence effect. Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study (N = 1,354), resistance to peer influence and peer delinquency were tested as predictors of subsequent offending when participants were 18, 19, and 20 years of age. Whereas peer delinquency (PD) facilitated future offending by increasing moral disengagement (MD), peer resistance inhibited future offending by decreasing moral disengagement. There were no significant differences between the two indirect effects. although only PD achieved a direct effect on future offending above and beyond the indirect effect of the PD → MD → future offending pathway. Peer resistance and PD were found to interact positively with each other in support of a moderated mediation hypothesis in which the inhibitory effects of resistance on moral disengagement were strongest at lower levels of PD. This indicates that juvenile offenders have the greatest chance of desisting from crime when they have fewer delinquent friends and stronger peer resistance skills, for even nondelinquent friends can provide occasional opportunities for crime. These results suggest that peer resistance training may be an effective adjunct in the treatment of juvenile offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Anxiety, depression, and offending in the Columbia County longitudinal study: A prospective analysis from late adolescence to middle adulthood

PurposeWe use data from a community sample, the Columbia County Longitudinal Study, which followed participants from childhood through adulthood, to examine the longitudinal relations between mental health (serious anxiety and serious depression) and offending across three waves of data collection (ages 19, 30, and 48). MethodParticipants were from the Columbia County Longitudinal Study (436 males and 420 females). The youth, their parents, and peers were first interviewed when the youth were age 8; the youth were later interviewed at ages 19, 30, and 48. ResultsWe found significant longitudinal relations from offending to experiencing subsequent severe anxiety and weaker longitudinal relations from experiencing severe anxiety to subsequent offending. For the relation between offending and severe depression, we found similar but somewhat weaker longitudinal associations. Cross-lagged longitudinal structural modeling analyses controlling for the continuity of offending, anxiety, and depression and for family socio-economic status and education were conducted to test the plausibility of alternative causal effects. ConclusionsThe analyses suggest that it is more plausible to conclude that offending is stimulating serious anxiety and depression than to conclude that anxiety and depression are stimulating offending. These results mirror what has been found previously about general aggressive behaviour.

Maturity of Judgment and Perceptual Deterrence

Recent deterrence literature has found that the degree to which sanction threats are perceived to influence subsequent offending differs within individuals and between individuals over time. This study examines whether three psychosocial aspects (temperance, perspective, responsibility) relevant to the maturity of judgment predict within-individual and between-individual differences in levels of perceptual deterrence. Random effects regression models with fixed effects (hybrid models) are used to estimate the impact of maturity of judgment on the perceived risks, costs, and benefits of crime among a sample of serious juvenile offenders from the Pathways to Desistance study over 7 years of development. The results support both within-person effects and between-person effects. More mature judgment ability is generally associated with the perception of greater risks, heavier costs of punishment, and fewer rewards of crime. The rate of change in perceptual deterrence by maturity of judgment varies between individuals. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Evaluation of childhood trauma with respect to criminal behavior, dissociative experiences, adverse family experiences and psychiatric backgrounds among prison inmates

ObjectiveTo evaluate childhood trauma in relation to criminal behavior, dissociative experiences, adverse family experiences during childhood and psychiatric backgrounds among prison inmates. MethodsIn total, 200 prison inmates were included in this questionnaire-based study. Data on demographic characteristics, adverse family experiences during childhood and psychiatric backgrounds were collected via face-to-face interviews, and a psychometric evaluation was conducted using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ-28) and Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES). ResultsSeveral historical items were more common in females than in males including family history of psychiatric disease (23.0% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.048), a personal history of psychiatric disease (51.0% vs. 29.0%, p < 0.001), and previous suicide attempts (49.0% vs. 25.0%, p < 0.001). In male inmates, in contrast, there were higher rates of substance abuse (48.0% vs. 29.0%, p < 0.001) and previous convictions (50.0% vs. 25.0%, p < 0.001). Males had a younger age at first crime (24.9 ± 8.9 years vs. 30.3 ± 9.2 years, p < 0.001), whereas females had higher rates of violent crimes (69.2% vs. 30.8% p < 0.001) and higher CTQ total scores (51.9 ± 20.9 vs. 46.2 ± 18.9, p = 0.04). A significant relationship of CTQ total score was noted with age at first offense (β = 0.772, p < 0.001) but not with sentence length (β = 0.075, p = 0.292). There were also possible mediating roles of psychiatric problems, adverse family experiences and DES in the relationship between CTQ and age at first offense. ConclusionIn conclusion, our findings revealed a high prevalence of and significant associations among childhood trauma, dissociative experiences, adverse family experiences and psychiatric problems in a cohort of incarcerated females and males. A psychiatric background, childhood trauma characterized by sexual abuse and violent crimes were found to be predominant in female prison inmates, whereas a criminal background with a younger age at first offense and frequent previous convictions, substance use and sexual crimes were more prevalent among male prison inmates. Our findings indicate a potential link between childhood traumatization and criminal behavior in terms of subsequent offending but not in terms of severity of the subsequent offense.