Subsequent Elections Research Articles

Implementation of Integrated Law Enforcement Center (Gakkumdu) In The Handling of Criminal General Election for 2019 in West Sumatera

Gakkumdu as an integrated law enforcement center has an important role in handling election criminal acts. In Article 486 point (1) of Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Election, the Gakkumdu establishment is explicitly intended to equalize the understanding and pattern of handling election criminal acts by the Bawaslu, the Indonesian National Police, and the Attorney General's Office of the Republic of Indonesia. There are 2 (two) problems in this research, firstly how the function and mechanism of the Gakkumdu Center in handling 2019 Election crime. Second, how the implementation of the Gakkumdu Center function in law enforcement in 2019 Election in West Sumatra. This research approach is empirical (sociological juridical) with a statutory approach. The data was collected by interviews and studies on primary, secondary and tertiary legal materials. The results showed that first, the function of the Gakkumdu Center was to equalize the understanding and pattern of election crime handling between the Election Supervisory Body, the Police and the Prosecutor's Office with the mechanism of work starting with the receipt of reports and findings of alleged acts which allegedly constituted an election criminal act which had been regulated in the Act Law No. 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections. Second, the implementation of the function of the Gakkumdu Center in law enforcement for the 2019 Election in West Sumatra is carried out under the Election Law and Bawaslu Regulation No. 31 of 2018 concerning the Gakkumdu Center. From all findings and reports of alleged election crimes that entered the Gakkumdu Center in West Sumatra based on studies and discussions as well as plenary meetings and the results of the investigation there were 101 cases that constituted criminal acts. Of these cases, 17 cases have been tried and decided by the court. Thus, this study recommends that coordination between law enforcement officers manifested in the Gakkumdu Center be further improved for the implementation of subsequent elections so that all reports and findings can be processed and the government can increase the active role of the community in overseeing the implementation of elections because it is needed to realize quality elections .

Policy Inertia, Election Uncertainty, and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties

Abstract We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of “incumbency disadvantage”: if a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes. A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of policy inertia. Normative and positive implications of policy inertia leading to incumbency disadvantage are explored.

DELEGATIVE DEMOCRACY: CONCEPTS AND UKRAINIAN REALITIES

This paper is devoted to clarifying the essence of the political regime that emerged in Ukraine as a result of the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections. The author concludes that the current political regime in Ukraine is a classic example of delegative democracy, as it emerged as a result free, competitive and transparent elections, but after the election all state power was concentrated in the hands of the president, with significant violations of generally accepted standards of democratic of governance and norms and procedures of Ukrainian legislation. He emphasizes that the value of the concept of delegative democracy lies in the fact that it illustrates one of the contradictions in the democratic development of many countries that lack democratic traditions – the contradiction between the electoral legitimacy of government and generally accepted standards of democratic governance. Delegative democracies are by its nature the populist regimes, the emergence of which is caused by the belief of citizens in improving their lives under the leadership of a charismatic person. It is noted that delegative regime as a result of growing public dissatisfaction with both its domestic and foreign policies are democracy has three development trends: 1) comparable endurance; 2) the transformation to autocracy; 3) the removal of the president from power as a result of subsequent elections or mass protests. The author believes that all these alternatives can theoretically be inherent in the current regime of delegative democracy in Ukraine, but the endurance is the least likely of them. The transformation of delegative democracy into autocracy or the elimination of the Zelensky regime as a result of growing public dissatisfaction with both its domestic and foreign policies are more likely.

Konsekwencje zmiany terminu głosowania w wyborach samorządowych w 2018 roku

The subject of the article is the analysis of the consequences of changing the date of voting in local elections, introduced by the Act of January, 11, 2018, amending certain acts to increase the participation of citizens in the process of electing, functioning and controlling certain public bodies. The introductory part of the study discusses the premises that were the direct cause of the change of Art. 371 paragraph 1 of the Polish Electoral Code in 2018. In the next part the author examines the evolution of the construction of the date of voting in local elections in subsequent election acts, starting from 1990. The third and fourth parts of the article discusses in detail the effects of the change in the date of voting introduced in 2018. The author pays attention to the lack of a systematic approach of the legislator to amending Art. 371 paragraph 1 of the Polish Electoral Code.

Executive Particularism and Ministerial Selection in India

Why do political parties in parliamentary systems undertake actions, such as joining a coalition government, that will entail significant costs for their members in subsequent elections? Recent research points to the incentive structures faced by differentially positioned members of a parliamentary party: unlike backbenchers, MPs who hold a ministerial portfolio can use the prerequisites of executive office to shield themselves from the costs of governance. This article tests the theory of executive particularism by examining the electoral fortunes of government ministers in India. Sitting government ministers are found to outperform other candidates; however, tests of causality fail to demonstrate that holding a ministerial portfolio causes this electoral benefit. Instead, it appears that a candidate’s electoral performance enhances the likelihood of being granted a ministerial portfolio in the first place. This finding raises questions about the generalizability of claims that party elites can use ministerial office to shield themselves from the costs of governing.

The Influence of Corruption Scandals on Government Accountability

The objective of the article is to examine whether corruption scandals involving members of the ruling party lead to changes in support for the government. It will also explore the extent to which the eruption of such scandals and reporting on them leads to an increase in the number of those opposed to the government, and whether in the long run this leads to the activation of the carrot-and-stick mechanism in respect of the governing political party, reflected in increased voting instability during subsequent elections.

Elections as Vehicles for Change? Explaining different outcomes of democratic performance and government alternation in Africa1

Does having more regular elections improve democratic performance in Africa? And have elections transformed the patterns of alternation in government? To answer these questions, two analyses are conducted drawing on an original dataset of 179 elections in 27 African countries, from the founding multiparty elections until 2019. The first tests the effects of alternation in government on democratic performance and shows that while alternation in government in the founding elections improves democratic performance, opposition victories in subsequent elections do not produce democratic gains. The second examines why alternation in government is more frequent in certain countries than in others; and reveals that the odds of turnover are increased by alternation in government in the founding elections, the level of political competition and the quality of elections. These findings contribute to literature linking elections, democracy and turnover in Africa.

Pendidikan Politik Bagi Pemilih Menjelang Pemilu Serentak 2019

The existence of the Constitutional Court Decision Number 14 / PUU-XI / 2013 in the trial case of Law Number 42 Year 2008 concerning General Elections of the President and Vice President whose decisions are final states that the holding of the 2019 General Elections and the subsequent General Elections shall be held simultaneously. The idea of holding a simultaneous General Election in 2019 certainly had a political impact, both nationally and regionally. The ruling of the Constitutional Court gave birth to Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections. This has had a huge impact and challenge for the Indonesian people in improving the electoral system and implementing a better democracy. The purpose of this study is to find out how to realize political education for voters ahead of the 2019 simultaneous elections. This study is a juridical normative approach to legislation. From the results of the study there is a legal vacuum that requires the General Election Commission to conduct Socialization, Voter Education, and Community Participation in the 2019 Election. In the Regional Head Election process there are technical rules governing the Socialization, Voter Education, and Community Participation, but do not include the threat of sanctions if it does not carry out the said activity. The resulting conclusion is that political education for voters ahead of the 2019 concurrent elections is very important to carry out, as an effort to realize the Sovereignty of a Strong State. The resulting recommendation is to make a legal rule regarding the obligation to carry out political education for voters ahead of the 2019 simultaneous elections as an effort to realize the Strong Sovereign State Voters in the 2019 Election along with the threat of sanctions for election administrators in an Act.Keywords: 2019 Election, Voter Education, Strong Sovereign State Voters.

Drowned Out by the Noise? The Downstream Mobilisation Effects of Party Campaigning between Local and General Elections

AbstractCampaign experiments often report positive effects on voter turnout. But do these effects endure at subsequent elections? Existing studies provide mixed evidence on downstream effects, and the rate at which initial mobilisation effects decay. This paper contributes to existing research by presenting a pre-registered analysis of downstream effects in a unique experimental setting. I test whether effects from a UK partisan experiment in a low turnout election in May 2017 persisted at the high turnout general election a month later. The findings show that in this short space of time, the original turnout effects virtually disappeared, suggesting that downstream effects resulting from campaign experiments can be quickly subsumed by the high saliency of subsequent elections.

Capture the flag: local factionalism as electoral mobilization in dominant party Uganda

ABSTRACTThis article addresses a question relevant to many non-democratic regimes: how can a successful dominant party be an institutionally weak one? President Yoweri Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) have dominated Ugandan politics since coming to power in 1986. However, the NRM does not possess many of the institutional endowments that other dominant parties use to control mass and elite politics, such as central control of candidate selection, autonomous mobilizing structures, or dispensation of sufficient political finance to its candidates. Instead, the party secretariat has no real institutional power independent of the personalist Museveni regime, and its local branches house fierce internal competition each election in which most incumbents lose office. This article argues that the NRM mobilizes so well for Museveni despite its institutional deficits due to the precise nature of the competitive process its local elites go through to win its nomination (or “flag”) and the subsequent general election. This process sees self-organized and self-financed candidates and their factions rejuvenate the party and mobilize votes for the concurrent presidential election as a by-product of their competition with one another. The article makes this argument with qualitative data from three districts gathered during the 2016 elections.

Voting with your wallet? Municipal budget policy and election results.

In this research letter, we examine the impact of municipal budget policy on the percentage of votes for the incumbent majority parties in subsequent elections. We contribute to the academic literature by examining the combined influence of taxes, expenditures and debt. Based on data for Flanders (Belgium) between 1994 and 2012, we find no significant association between these budget variables and the actual election results.

With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

American elections have become increasingly nationalized and highly predictable; with partisanship serving as an identity-based, dominant vote determinant for all but a small portion of Americans. Rather than a relatively fixed pool of voters rewarding or punishing the parties for their platforms or performance in office like elections of the past, the two party’s electoral fortunes rise and fall with the ebb and flow of turnout among key elements of their increasingly fixed coalitions; mobilized or demobilized by gaining or losing control of the presidency. Voters from the party out-of-power, galvanized to vote by negative partisanship, increase their turnout in subsequent elections, while turnout from the party in-power wanes due to complacency. The electoral performance of the opposition party is also improved by the predictable movement of pure Independent voters away from the party in power due the hyper-partisan and highly-charged negative political environment. The size of the “swing” of pure Independents is conditioned on economic conditions or on other “shocks” to the political system such as unpopular wars or unpopular incumbent presidents. The Negative Partisanship model predicted the Democrat's 40 seat House gain four months before Election Day in the 2018 Midterms. The 2020 forecast currently shows Democrats recapturing the White House with 278 Electoral College votes, including the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Social Media Usage and Impacts on the 2019 General Elections in Nigeria

There have been controversial opinions on the role of the social media in elections. Some scholars have argued that the social media creates the platform for all to be part of democratic governance through public opinions, while others think otherwise. This study investigated the usage and impact of social media on the 2019 general elections. The study adopts primary and secondary methods of data collection. Findings from the study revealed that social media was used to inform and mobilize voters by various stakeholders during the 2019 elections. Also, findings indicated that the social media has the potential to add value to subsequent elections in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that social media should be encouraged in political mobilization and participation of citizens considering its unique advantages to democratic consolidation in Nigeria. Keywords: Elections, social media, voters DOI : 10.7176/IAGS/74-03 Publication date :July 31 st 2019

Young Adults and the (Non‐)Formation of Voting Habits – Evidence from Norwegian First‐time Eligible Citizens

This article exploits variation in age among first‐time eligible citizens in Norwegian elections that arises through voting eligibility rules and two‐year election cycles to investigate voting habits. I find that obtaining the right to vote at a lower age is associated with substantially higher turnout among first‐time eligible citizens, however, this difference in political participation does not persist for subsequent elections. Building on the established literature on the habitual nature of voting, the results show that getting young citizens to vote once is not sufficient to create a habit of voting, and suggest that how the voting decision is made matter for the habit formation process.

Radioactive Identifications in the Present: Introduction to a Roundtable Discussion of the Intersect of Politics, Social Formations, and the Clinical

This is an introduction to a roundtable comprising three papers and a discussion considering the interweave of psychoanalysis and social and political life. Prepared for a 2017 conference in Prague, the three papers (and one discussion) address political and social changes in Central Europe and globally as they effect internal conscious and unconscious experience. The roundtable centers on how changes in political order, and in the environment, past and present, produce ongoing new and renewed trauma in citizens, both locally and globally. The introduction sets this work in the context of the 2017 conference and the subsequent election of Donald Trump to president of the United States, speaking to the unsettled “radioactive” effects of social and political change on the subject.

The Determinants of Perception of Corruption in Guatemala, 2006–2016

The September 2015 ousting and imprisonment of Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina and the subsequent election of television personality Jimmy Morales, who ran on an anticorruption platform, were interpreted as evidence of the salience of corruption as a popular concern in the country. Using the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) from 2006 to 2016, this article analyzes the evolution in the perception of corruption in Guatemala and its determinants to assess for changes after 2015. Perception of corruption remains a secondary concern for most Guatemalans and its determinants—age; education; rightwing ideology; and retrospective economic outlook—are stable overtime. The 2015 corruption scandal had a marginal impact on an already high perception of corruption. When perception of corruption is so widespread, the explanatory power of its determinants becomes less pronounced.

Mind the Gap: Antitrust, Health Disparities and Telemedicine.

Health inequalities in the United States have been continuously escalating. Numbers speak: In a land of dreams and opportunity, the difference in life expectancy between the wealthy and the poor exceeds close 10 to 15 years. Healthcare disparities have become a key concern for both leaders and policymakers. In the 2001 ‘Across the Chasm: Six Aims for Changing the Health Care System,’ the Institute of Medicine identified equity in healthcare as one of the main goals of health care systems aiming to improve their performance. Since 2000, the Department of Health and Human Services’ Healthy People initiative has also characterized the elimination of health disparities as a central goal. In Healthy People 2020, the stated goal is to “achieve health equity, eliminate disparities, and improve the health of all groups.” Considering the high costs of health disparity, this should not come as a surprise. Among others, these include excessive healthcare expenditures, loss of labor productivity and premature deaths. Nonetheless, health disparities do not only hurt the economy, but, most importantly, our democracy. This is because a healthy electorate is an essential prerequisite for civic participation in a democratic society. Let us consider, for example, the gap in life expectancy between Blacks and Whites in the United States. Black Americans, on average, “die in higher proportions than [W]hites at all ages before their age of life expectancy.” These premature deaths deter them from participating in subsequent elections. The effect of early deaths on political disadvantage is cumulative, “increasingly diluting the political voice of Blacks compared with whites.” Consequentially, as more Black voters’ voices remain unheard, the more the social and economic inequality exacerbates. One of the health reforms aiming to eliminate health disparities in the United States, especially in rural and disadvantaged areas, is telemedicine: a technology driven tool for healthcare delivery designed to increase access to healthcare services. This article critiques the theory that an increase in the use of telemedicine would reduce health disparities and improve health outcomes in disadvantaged geographic areas. I raise three crucial concerns. First, although the use of telemedicine may increase access to healthcare services, it may at the same time harm quality of care by unsafely facilitating the exchange of certain health information and also eroding the trust in the doctor–patient relationship. Second, public health research demonstrates that telemedicine is often associated with poor performance for appropriate antibiotic prescribing for certain diseases, such as acute bronchitis compared with in-person physical examination. Third, telemedicine is often used by high income patients, and not the underserved populations that lack access to healthcare services. Considering the limitations of this novel form of healthcare delivery, I argue that a regulatory intervention is needed to ensure that consumers benefit from this alternative form of diagnosis and treatment. However, some regulatory structures, such as self–regulation, have strengths and competitive weaknesses. Indeed, they may create barriers to the efficient flow of healthcare information and expertise, eliminate competition between healthcare providers and lead to cost increases. In delving into these tradeoffs, this article asks: Can the application of antitrust law in the healthcare sector strike the appropriate balance between the benefits these technology-driven tools bring to society and the need to protect the public safety?

Immigration, Deportation, and Discrimination: Hispanic Political Opinion Since the Election of Donald Trump

Both the campaign and subsequent election of Donald Trump have brought about marked changes in the overall tone of American political discourse. It is thought that these changes have been particularly disruptive to the public’s view of Hispanic immigration. To evaluate the current state of Hispanic political opinion regarding immigration, this study draws upon data from a survey conducted in January 2018 of 1,080 people of Hispanic descent currently living in the United States or Puerto Rico. Researchers looked at the impact of age, gender, language preference, time lived in the United States, and knowing an undocumented immigrant on participants’ views of immigration. Taking the survey in Spanish and knowing an undocumented immigrant were found to be the most influential factors in determining a favorable view of undocumented immigrants as well as a perceived increase in discrimination toward Hispanics since Trump’s election.

If you ask, they will come (to register and vote): Field experiments with state election agencies on encouraging voter registration

We address the frequent critique that voter registration is a barrier to participation in the US. Institutional reforms to voter registration produce only small impacts on participation. We show the registration barrier can be reduced without changing laws or administrative processes using official communication seeking to change individual political behavior. In collaboration with state election agencies in two states, we conducted large-scale field experiments using low cost postcards aimed at increasing registration among eligible but unregistered citizens. The experiments find statistically and substantively significant effects on registration and turnout in subsequent elections. The research partnership with election officials is unusual and important for understanding electoral participation. Further, the population targeted for registration is broader than prior experiments on voter registration in the US. The results provide important insights about voter registration as a barrier to political participation, plus practical guidance for election officials to reduce this barrier.

The spatial pattern of voter choice homogeneity in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic

Abstract The return of democratic rule in 1999 after many years of military intervention has left some electoral geographic imprints on Nigeria: voting pattern has varied over this period. This paper analyses the pattern of voter choice homogeneity (VCH) and tests the effect of religion on VCH in the presidential elections of the fourth Nigerian republic from 1999 to 2015. The study found that some economic indicators have a positive and significant effect on VCH from the 2003 election but were all insignificant and with a negative impact in the 2015 election. The influence of religion on VCH was negative in the 1999 election but remained positive in subsequent elections and had an increasingly upward trajectory signifying the snowballing importance of faith in citizens’ political choices at the presidential polls. The analysis shows that the pattern of VCH in 1999 was random, but clustered from 2003 to 2015, although the 2011 geographical clustering of VCH was dissected and the 2015 pattern was regionalised. Thus, the article argues that voting patterns structured Nigeria’s political landscape from a random to clustered but dissected electoral landscapes to a clustered but regionalised mi-lieu of a nation of two voting worlds. The pattern of a nation of two voting blocs was witnessed in the 2015 election, in which the VCH sharply depicts the religious cleavage of the country and to some degree also depicts ethnic fault-lines.