Subprime Crisis Research Articles

Currency power as a medium: Revisiting international cost transfer mechanisms in the U.S. subprime crisis

This paper endeavors to meticulously examine the disparities in developmental trajectories between industrialized and emerging economies, employing the nuanced concept of cost transfer within the theoretical framework of the "core-periphery" paradigm. We propose an intricate conceptual model to delve into the mechanisms through which economic crises are systematically shifted from the developed core to the peripheral developing regions, with particular emphasis on the pivotal roles of monetary hegemony and geopolitical dominance. Utilizing the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis as a seminal case study, we scrutinize the intricate dynamics of cost transfer, elucidating how the developed nations leverage their monetary supremacy and geopolitical prowess, often bolstered by military might and neo-liberal ideologies, to facilitate the offloading of inflationary pressures and commodity price hikes onto developing nations, notably China. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on the entrenched inequalities between the Global North and South, emphasizing the asymmetrical power relations that underpin the process of cost transfer. Furthermore, this study enhances the research framework of cost-transfer theory and offers insights into the development of inequalities between developed and developing countries, aiding in the formulation of response strategies for developing countries facing cost transfer and mitigating the adverse impacts of cost transfers, thereby fostering more equitable and sustainable development trajectories.

The Impact of Financial Crises on Financial Markets: Case Studies of Three Historical Crises

Abstract: The recurring occurrences of financial crises have profound impacts on the global economic system. Insights gained from in-depth discussions on financial crises can effectively respond to future shocks, thereby ensuring the steady development of the world economy. This paper uses comparative analysis to examine the similar and different impacts of three financial crises on financial markets: the Dutch Tulip Mania of 1637, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2008. The research findings indicate that all three financial crises caused significant volatility in financial product trading markets. At the same time, these crises provided different lessons for the development of financial markets: the 1637 Dutch Tulip Mania underscored the importance of regulating exchanges, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis highlighted the importance of foreign exchange reserves, and the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis emphasized the necessity of controlling the banking industry, especially lending.

Subprime Crisis Shockwaves: Impacts On Capital Structure In Non-Financial Corporations

Based upon a dataset spanning about 2,780 non-financial firms in France over the period 2007- 2019, we explore the impact of the subprime crisis on their leverage ratio and capital structure, comparing the experience of the largest listed and unlisted non-financial corporates. Our results highlight that both listed and unlisted corporates tend to reduce their overall indebtedness ratios during the subprime crisis period and its aftermath, generalizing a significant corporate deleveraging for listed and unlisted firms especially during the post-crisis period. In addition, our findings show that listed corporates become more dependable on short- and medium-term credits than the long-term which may increase the exposure of these corporates to credit and liquidity shocks. While our outcomes reveal a clear preference to long-term debt for unlisted firms by expanding their debt maturities, relying on long-term credits and reducing their dependence on short- and medium-term debt which burden these corporates with short-term charges and payments that cannot afford during the crisis and post-crisis periods.

Risk Analysis of Mortgage Loan Default for Bank Customers and AI Machine Learning

Abstract Risk Analysis of Mortgage Loan Default for Banks is a crucial issue. On one hand, it concerns the quality of the bank's credit decisions, and on the other hand, it affects the rights of homebuyers to obtain financial support. In 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis sparked a global financial meltdown. What began with the collapse of the housing market quickly spread throughout the global financial system, resulting in the failure of numerous banks and a widespread economic recession. Recently, the banking sector has increasingly leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to enhance decision-making processes, particularly in assessing the risk of mortgage loan defaults. This paper aims to explore the application of ML techniques to predict and analyze the risk of default among bank customers, thereby enabling financial institutions to make more accurate and informed lending decisions. Keywords: Mortgage Loan Default Risk Analysis AI ML K-MANS LTV.

Technology-Driven Financial Risk Management: Exploring the Benefits of Machine Learning for Non-Profit Organizations

This study explores how machine learning can optimize financial risk management for non-profit organizations by evaluating various algorithms aimed at mitigating loan default risks. The findings indicate that ensemble learning models, such as random forest and LightGBM, significantly improve prediction accuracy, thereby enabling non-profits to better manage financial risk. In the context of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, which underscored the volatility of financial markets, this research assesses a range of risks—credit, operational, liquidity, and market risks—while exploring both traditional machine learning and advanced ensemble techniques, with a particular focus on stacking fusion to enhance model performance. Emphasizing the importance of privacy and adaptive methods, this study advocates for interdisciplinary approaches to overcome limitations such as stress testing, data analysis rule formulation, and regulatory collaboration. The research underscores machine learning’s crucial role in financial risk control and calls on regulatory authorities to reassess existing frameworks to accommodate evolving risks. Additionally, it highlights the need for accurate data type identification and the potential for machine learning to strengthen financial risk management amid uncertainty, promoting interdisciplinary efforts that address broader issues like environmental sustainability and economic development.

Tail risk spillovers in the stock and forex markets at the major emergencies: Evidence from the G20 countries

We explore the tail risk spillover in the stock and foreign exchange (forex) markets along the G20 countries based on the tail-event driven network (TENET) method. To effectively capture the risk spillover mechanism from the tail-dependence perspective, we analyze the network connectedness in four aspects (namely system, market, region, and country) and explore it at the major emergencies. We find that (i) the system-level risk spillover peaks at the US subprime crisis, and subsequently undergoes several cyclical volatility in relatively high level in the period of major emergencies; (ii) the cross-market risk spillover from the stock markets to the forex markets plays a dominant role, while that from the forex markets to the stock markets is small; and (iii) the stock and forex markets in Europe and America transmit the large tail risk spillovers to other regions, and the forex markets in these regions are sensitive to the major emergencies.

Impact of Sharia‐Based Screening on Equity Risk: International Evidence

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the impact of mainstream Sharia‐based screening methodologies on equity risk. The study is based on the daily returns of 23 pairs of stock indices belonging to different index providers, namely Dow Jones, FTSE, and S&P. For risk measurement, the study uses five Value at Risk (VaR) methods. Moreover, the conditional VaR (CVaR) is used to analyze the tail behavior of return distributions. The results show that Sharia‐based screening is a source of significant differences in risk. There is strong evidence that Islamic stock indices (ISIs) tend to be less risky than their conventional peers. Also, the screening process allows for keeping extreme negative returns at a lower level relative to unscreened indices. The analysis during the Dotcom and Subprime crises shows that, globally, the results are time‐invariant. In sum, Islamic screening is tantamount to prudential rules that lead to low‐risk portfolios; it is, in its essence, a risk‐reduction strategy. Findings suggest that Sharia‐compliant stocks would be of great attractiveness to risk‐averse investors. They will find their claim in this asset class, as its riskiness is relatively low. For banks, a lower VaR of Islamic investing implies fewer capital requirements for market risk when holding portfolios that include Sharia‐compliant stocks. Fewer capital requirements will enhance the banks' ability to invest and make profits, which will, in turn, result in reducing the cost of capital.

Analysis of financial contagion among economic sectors through Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Crises severely impact economies and may spread across regions or sectors in a process called contagion. Understanding this process is crucial for anticipating crises’ effects and implementing mitigative strategies. Specific economic sectors may be major crisis propagators: banking and insurance are often considered decisive in this context. This study employs Dynamic Bayesian Networks to model sectoral interdependencies within the U.S. economy, utilizing daily data from nine Dow Jones industrial indices over the period 2000–2020. As a secondary objective, we evaluate whether the insurance industry plays a central role in spreading crises. Several crisis periods are analyzed, from dot-com bubble to Covid-19 pandemic. The results reveal the subprime crisis, European debt crisis and the 2016 presidential election as the main contagious periods. The last analyzed period – Covid-19 pandemic – was divided in two phases, showing, on phase 1, an interconnected economic system with three main spreaders (Oil & Gas, Real Estate and Pharmaceutical) and, on phase 2, the same configuration of the post-subprime. Furthermore, although the insurance sector was somehow relevant during subprime crisis, it primarily acts as a contagion receptor, specially from the banking sector, with the correlation between them being the highest of all, reaching 0.49 at the last period.

Corporate Cash Holdings and Advertising Spending After the Financial Crises

This paper examines the link between a firm’s characteristics and advertising budget allocation. It also shows the firm’s behavior after the Asian financial crisis and the American subprime mortgage crisis. Results show that crises can significantly impact management decisions. They can influence how multinational companies plan for their future. The study also identifies the macroeconomic factors that can influence a firm’s decision to allocate funds.

Pure contagion vs. financial interconnection in the subprime crisis context: Short- and long-term dynamics

This paper examines the difference between pure contagion and financial interconnection by studying the U.S. and some American and Asian markets in the subprime crisis context. These markets are affected by the mortgage crisis, with data available from January 1, 2003 to December 30, 2011. The paper first identifies the turmoil period via the wavelet technique and adopts cointegration and Granger causality approaches by estimating vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) models. Based on daily returns from stock market indices in five American countries (Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and the U.S.) and eight Asian ones (Hong Kong, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, and China), the results show eight cases of pure contagion and 10 cases of financial interconnection. In addition, there were high co-movements in the short term and low co-movements in the long term for financial interconnection cases. These findings have several implications for investors looking to diversify their portfolios internationally and for portfolio managers to expect and limit market risk. The results provide additional guidance to regulators and policymakers.

Analyzing the Selective Stock Price Index Using Fractionally Integrated and Heteroskedastic Models

Stock market indices are important tools to measure and compare stock market performance. The Selective Stock Price (SSP) index reflects fluctuations in a set value of financial instruments of Santiago de Chile’s stock exchange. Stock indices also reflect volatility linked to high uncertainty or potential investment risk. However, economic shocks are altering volatility. Evidence of long memory in SSP time series also exists, which implies long-term persistence. In this paper, we studied the volatility of SSP time series from January 2010 to September 2023 using fractionally heteroskedastic models. We considered the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) innovations—the ARFIMA-GARCH model—for SSP log returns, and the fractionally integrated GARCH, or FIGARCH model, was compared with a classical GARCH one. The results show that the ARFIMA-GARCH model performs best in terms of volatility fit and predictive quality. This model allows us to obtain a better understanding of the observed volatility and its behavior, which contributes to more effective investment risk management in the stock market. Moreover, the proposed model detects the influence volatility increments of the SSP index linked to external factors that impact the economic outlook, such as China’s economic slowdown in 2012 and the subprime crisis in 2008.

Macroeconomic and political determinants of the brazilian basic interest rate

This paper aims to investigate the formation of benchmark interest rates by understanding the factors that may influence the target set by the Brazilian Monetary Council for the Selic rate. To achieve this, data from 2003 to 2024 are analyzed to estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil through an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results suggest that the management of Brazilian monetary policy adheres to the principles of the Taylor rule and has been influenced by structural changes. Extreme events, such as the Subprime crisis and COVID-19, may have impacted the decisions of the monetary authority, while the 2016 impeachment and different presidential administrations did not show statistically significant effects. These findings contribute to the scientific literature on interest rate formation by providing empirical evidence for Brazil and offer valuable insights for policymakers and other economic agents who consider monetary policy in their decision-making processes.

Subprime Crisis Revisited: Effect of Payment Shock on Foreclosure Rates

This study investigates how payment shock from interest rate resets affects subprime mortgage foreclosure rates. Using robust econometric techniques (OLS, 2SLS, GMM), it isolates the causal effect of payment shock while accounting for house prices and borrowers’ ability to pay. Our findings show a significant positive link (27%) between payment shock and foreclosure rates. It highlights economic stability’s importance, showing negative correlations between foreclosure rates and ability to pay, as well as foreclosure rates and house prices. Lagged foreclosure rates show a persistent effect. The GMM model provides the most reliable estimates by addressing endogeneity, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation.

Racial capitalism and firearm violence: Developing a theoretical framework for firearm violence research examining structural racism

Despite the early promise of centering structural racism in explanatory models of firearm violence, there are noticeable gaps in what's been produced thus far; in particular, a deeper and more serious engagement with long-standing theories of racism is needed to further enrich our understanding of how structural inequalities produce unequal burdens of firearm-related harms. Thus, building on theories and concepts from a range of academic fields and Black philosophical perspectives, we developed a theoretical framework to help explain the role of place-based structural racism on firearm violence disparities. A central component of our framework is the concept racial capitalism, which contends that racial exploitation and the accumulation of assets depend on and reinforce one another. In this article, we present our framework and highlight how two processes related to racial capitalism—racialized dispossession and racialized spatial stigma—are connected with geographic disparities in firearm violence. We also present the results of an ecological cross-sectional study that reveals a potential key association between racial capitalism and firearm violence disparities on the neighborhood-level. We used a structural intersectionality approach and descriptive epidemiological methods to highlight and quantitatively describe spatial firearm violence disparities that could potentially be linked to the varying exposure of two dimensions of racial capitalism—historical redlining and contemporary racialized subprime mortgage lending. We found that sustained disadvantaged census tracts (tracts that were historically redlined and experienced higher contemporary subprime lending) experienced the highest burden of firearm violence in Baltimore City between 2015 and 2019. Our research suggests that racial capitalism could potentially be a root cause of firearm violence disparities. A theoretical framework based on racial capitalism can inform the development and usage of indicators and analytic methods for racism-related firearm violence research. Moreover, this framework can identify factors to prioritize in equity-based violence prevention policies and programs.

Research on the Subprime Crisis Based on Regional and Housing Type Perspectives

Research on the Subprime Crisis Based on Regional and Housing Type Perspectives

Islamic Finance and Economic Performance: A Panel Analysis in Selected Countries

Financial crises, and stock markets over the years have amply shown how investors’ sentiment affect asset prices and the effectiveness of stock markets. Such a crisis brought down financial institutions sent stock markets tumbling, and left consumers scrambling due to subprime mortgages. With this, Islamic finance adoption has driven demand for Islamic financial products being free from interest. Hence, this study aimed to determine how Islamic finance can influence the economy of 19 selected countries adopting Islamic finance. These countries have marginal to significant scores in Islamic Finance across the years. This study utilized panel data from 2013 to 2021, which was gathered from the Global Islamic Finance Report, Global Innovation Report, and World Bank. A number of diagnostic tests and analyses were performed in order to reach a result that addressed the objectives and problem statement. The Panel Corrected Standard Errors analysis was used as the final model to treat heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional dependence, and autocorrelation. Based on the regression results, Islamic finance has a positive and statistically significant effect on the economy. The regression results indicate a positive and statistically significant impact of Islamic finance on the economies of the studied countries. This finding underscores the potential of Islamic finance to stimulate economic growth, enhance financial stability, and foster inclusivity in financial markets. Consequently, the findings highlight the pivotal role of macroeconomic variables and the adoption of Islamic finance principles in shaping economic outcomes.

Energy demand and air quality in social housing buildings: A novel critical review

Social housing buildings, throughout Europe, represent a consistent share of the existing building stock. Due to the increasing levels of urbanization, the social housing population in the cities has risen and, after the economic crisis following the subprime mortgage crisis and the pandemic, low-income families as well. The greatest part of social dwellings, those built in the previous century, is usually sub-standard from an energy and environmental point of view. This study reviews the existing literature documenting indoor environmental conditions and energy refurbishment interventions or programs to improve the energy efficiency of existing social buildings. By considering the high risk of energy poverty in social contexts, and the socio-economic conditions of tenants, the economic implications deriving from the energy retrofit were also evidenced. Relevant papers published between 2010 and 2024 were reviewed and were divided according to the reference scale, namely the building or the district scale. The review shows the need to improve the energy performances of social dwellings, both to reduce their energy demand and to improve the indoor microclimatic conditions and quality of life of tenants. Through a critical literature review approach, this study provides a contribution to the in-depth understanding of the role of social housing in the contemporary context, providing meaningful insights for formulating more effective and inclusive housing policies for the next future.

Risk Premium and Fear of Investors in Crisis’ Periods: An Empirical Approach Based on Fama–French and Carhart Factor Models

This study aims to answer the question about the interactions between “investors’ fear”, two factors proposed by Fama & French, the Carhart momentum factor, andthe risk premium, and how these interactions were affected by two financial crises, the Dot-Com and Sub-Prime crises. This paper is the first empirical study that considers the effects of these financial crises. It is of critical importance as it changes the specificity of the empirical models for different periods, significantly affecting the results compared to previous research work. The main findings include a general negative change in fear over all of the sub-periods. Secondly, no consistent positive trend was observed in any of the risk premiums over time. After each crisis, the relationships between the endogenous variables had significant changes. More specifically, investors’ fear, on the first day of the week, appears to be systematically higher across all sub-periods except during the Sub-Prime crisis. Finally, after the Sub-Prime financial crisis, there is an almost complete loss of the explanatory power of the VAR models. Although fear does not seem to affect risk premiums or momentum, it was nevertheless found that the results are sensitive to the specification of the models.

Strategic Responses in a Market Crisis: A Cross-Industry Comparative Analysis During the Subprime Crisis and Epidemic of 2008

Strategic Responses in a Market Crisis: A Cross-Industry Comparative Analysis During the Subprime Crisis and Epidemic of 2008

Study on the Development of Offshore RMB Market and Its Impact on the International Financial System

The internationalization of the Chinese yuan responds to challenges with the US dollar's dominance, spurred by events like the subprime crisis and unlimited quantitative easing. China's economic stature necessitates yuan's global role. Its journey involves five stages, from border trade usage to SDR inclusion and presence in global indices. Offshore markets are pivotal, facilitating capital flows and meeting investor needs. Financial regulatory reforms align with market dynamics, enhancing transparency and stability. This study explores the symbiotic relationship between yuan internationalization and financial regulatory reforms, offering theoretical insights and policy recommendations for China's financial evolution and yuan's global ascent.