Subpolar Gyre Research Articles

Biogeochemical Properties and Transports in the North East Atlantic

AbstractThe eastern subpolar North Atlantic is a source of nutrients to the Northwest European Shelf and Arctic; however, biogeochemical transports in this important region are unknown. We examine variability in nutrients and carbon at the eastern boundary of the subpolar North Atlantic between 2017 and 2020, and calculate their transport by a branch of the North Atlantic Current and the European Slope Current. By combining observations from moorings and ship‐based surveys, we derive novel biogeochemical property transports at high temporal resolution. Data from 63 m provide new evidence of a strong seasonal signal with silicate declining between April and May (−2.3 μmol kg−1) and a concurrent increase in pH (0.04) and oxygen saturation (3.5%). Additionally, pH and oxygen saturation show a secondary peak in October during the autumn bloom. Biogeochemical transports are northwards and highly variable with volume transport dominating the variability over a multi‐annual timescale. However, historical data suggests that nitrate and phosphate transports were 15% and 19% lower respectively in the late 2000s when the subpolar gyre circulation was weaker and lower nutrient source waters were dominant. These changes may have been amplified by concurrent reductions in volume transport. Changes in carbon and nutrient transports in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic may propagate downstream with potential effects on the Northwest European Shelf and Eurasian Arctic.

Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM

Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component initialized, the Data Assimilation method, or the technique. We compare five popular schemes within NorCPM following the same experimental protocol: reanalysis from 1980 to 2010 and seasonal and decadal predictions initialized from the reanalysis. We compare atmospheric initialization—Newtonian relaxation (nudging)—against ocean initialization—Ensemble Kalman Filter—(ODA). On the atmosphere, we explore the benefit of full-field (NudF-UVT) or anomaly (NudA-UVT) nudging of horizontal winds and temperature (U, V, and T) observations. The scheme NudA-UV nudges horizontal winds to disentangle the role of wind-driven variability. The ODA+NudA-UV scheme is a first attempt at joint initialization of ocean and atmospheric components in NorCPM. During the reanalysis, atmospheric nudging improves the synchronization of the atmosphere and land components with the observed data. Conversely, ODA is more effective at synchronizing the ocean component with observations. The atmospheric nudging schemes are better at reproducing specific events, such as the rapid North Atlantic subpolar gyre shift. An abrupt climatological change using the NudA-UV scheme demonstrates that energy conservation is crucial when only assimilating winds. ODA outperforms atmospheric-initialized versions for S2D global predictions, while atmospheric nudging is preferable for accurately initializing phenomena in specific regions, with the technique’s benefit depending on the prediction’s temporal scale. For instance, atmospheric full-field initialization benefits the tropical Atlantic Niño at 1-month lead time, and atmospheric anomaly initialization benefits longer lead times, reducing hindcast drift. Combining atmosphere and ocean initialization yields sub-optimal results, as sustaining the ensemble’s reliability—required for ODA’s performance—is challenging with atmospheric nudging.

Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations

In coupled perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiments or for development of a single coupled global climate model (GCM) in general, models can exhibit a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that can result in unrealistically reduced transport of heat and other tracers. Here we propose a method that researchers running PPE experiments can apply to their own PPE to diagnose what controls the AMOC strength in their model and make predictions thereof. As an example, using data from a 25-member coupled PPE experiment performed with HadGEM3-GC3.05, we found four predictors based on surface heat and freshwater fluxes in four critical regions from the initial decade of the spinup phase that could accurately predict the AMOC transport in the later stage of the experiment. The method, to our knowledge, is novel in that it separates the effects of the drivers of AMOC change from the effects of the changed AMOC. The identified drivers are shown to be physically credible in that the PPE members exhibiting AMOC weakening possess some combination of the following characteristics: warmer ocean in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, fresher Arctic and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans and larger runoff from the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers. These characteristics were further traced to regional responses in atmosphere-only experiments. This study suggests promising potential for early stopping rules for parameter perturbations that could end up with an unrealistically weak AMOC, saving valuable computational resources. Some of the four drivers are likely to be relevant to other climate models so this study is of interest to model developers who do not have a PPE.

Multiple biotic interactions establish phytoplankton community structure across environmental gradients

AbstractThe combination of taxa and size classes of phytoplankton that coexist at any location affects the structure of the marine food web and the magnitude of carbon fluxes to the deep ocean. But what controls the patterns of this community structure across environmental gradients remains unclear. Here, we focus on the North East Pacific Transition Zone, a ~ 10° region of latitude straddling warm, nutrient‐poor subtropical and cold, nutrient‐rich subpolar gyres. Data from three cruises to the region revealed intricate patterns of phytoplankton community structure: poleward increases in the number of cell size classes; increasing biomass of picoeukaryotes and diatoms; decreases in diazotrophs and Prochlorococcus; and both increases and decreases in Synechococcus. These patterns can only be partially explained by existing theories. Using data, theory, and numerical simulations, we show that the patterns of plankton distributions across the transition zone are the result of gradients in nutrient supply rates, which control a range of complex biotic interactions. We examine how interactions such as size‐specific grazing, multiple trophic strategies, shared grazing between several phytoplankton size classes and heterotrophic bacteria, and competition for multiple resources can individually explain aspects of the observed community structure. However, it is the combination of all these interactions together that is needed to explain the bulk compositional patterns in phytoplankton across the North East Pacific Transition Zone. The synthesis of multiple mechanisms is essential for us to begin to understand the shaping of community structure over large environmental gradients.

Ocean response to a century of observation-based freshwater forcing around Greenland in EC-Earth3

The acceleration of Greenland ice sheet melting over the past decades is raising concern regarding the impacts on ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions. Global climate models struggle to assess these impacts as they do not include a realistic amount of meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet. Using an extended observation-based dataset of runoff and solid ice discharge for the recent historical period (1920–2019), we force the EC-Earth3 climate model following the ensemble approach and protocol of a previous study using a different model. We observe a slight increase of the ensemble mean AMOC with a large spread in the response: 0.20±0.81\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$0.20\\pm 0.81$$\\end{document} Sv for the maximum AMOC at 45∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document}N. We notice that members with a strong initial AMOC state (18 Sv) show a strengthening of the AMOC, while members with intermediate AMOC strength between 16 and 18 Sv are not affected by the freshwater forcing. Weaker initial AMOC members respond with a mean weakening of -0.21±0.58\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${-}\\,0.21\\pm 0.58$$\\end{document} Sv of the AMOC. The AMOC ensemble spread is reduced by half in the freshwater forced ensemble at the end of the experiment and the negative trend is stronger compared to historical simulations without the forcing. This suggests the possible ability of the freshwater to constrain AMOC variability on multi-decadal time-scales. Comparison of the two ten member ensembles with ORAS5 reanalysis shows a reduction of the surface temperature and salinity biases in the freshwater forced ensemble in key regions such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the Beaufort Gyre relative to the historical simulations. Recent trends are also more aligned with reanalysis in those regions. Arctic Ocean Atlantic Water subsurface core temperature is also closer to reanalysis but still strongly biassed. Members with a high AMOC initial state display an unrealistic Atlantic water layer core depth.

Surface and subsurface dispersal of radioactive materials from Fukushima by subpolar gyre and intermediate waters in the North Pacific

Radioactive materials were released into the ocean following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011. Six years after the accident, the radioactive material concentration was markedly increased in the Okhotsk Intermediate Water (OIW) of the Sea of Okhotsk. This material may have been subjected to southward subsurface dispersal by the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), which originates from the OIW. The spatiotemporal limitations of available methods have made it challenging to track the dispersal paths of radioactive materials in the North Pacific Subpolar region. Here, we performed a tracer experiment using a three-dimensional numerical model to determine the path of 137Cs from Fukushima to the Sea of Okhotsk via surface subpolar gyre currents and subsurface dispersion by OIW and NPIW. The results showed that the 137Cs concentration in the Sea of Okhotsk increased via the surface current and moved progressively southward via OIW six years after the accident and eastward via OIW and NPIW nine years after the accident, indicating that 137Cs transported by NPIW entered the subtropical region. Based on experiments, this temporal change was mainly caused by ocean currents. Thus, subsurface recirculation of radioactive material via the OIW and NPIW should be considered based on the predicted path and travel time of additional materials released from the power plant.

Structure of the Bottom Boundary Current South of Iceland and Spreading of Deep Waters by Submesoscale Processes

AbstractThe northeastern part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key passage for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation upper cell. To this day, the precise pathway and intensity of bottom currents in this area is not clear. In this study, we make use of regional high resolution numerical modeling to suggest that the main bottom current flowing south of Iceland originates from both the Faroe‐Banks Channel and the Iceland‐Faroe Ridge and then flows along the topographic slope. When flowing over the rough topography, this bottom current generates a 200 m large bottom mixed layer. We further demonstrate that many submesoscale structures are generated at the southernmost tip of the Icelandic shelf, which subsequently spread water masses in the Iceland Basin. These findings have major implication for the understanding of the water masses transport in the North Atlantic, and also for the distribution of benthic species along the Icelandic shelf.

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Ocean climate and hydrodynamics drive decadal shifts in Northeast Atlantic dinoflagellates.

The abundance of large marine dinoflagellates has declined in the North Sea since 1958. Although hypotheses have been proposed to explain this diminution (increasing temperature and wind), the mechanisms behind this pattern have thus far remained elusive. In this article, we study the long-term changes in dinoflagellate biomass and biodiversity in relation to hydro-climatic conditions and circulation within the North Atlantic. Our results show that the decline in biomass has paralleled an increase in biodiversity caused by a temperature-induced northward movement of subtropical taxa along the European shelf-edge, and facilitated by changes in oceanic circulation (subpolar gyre contraction). However, major changes in North Atlantic hydrodynamics in the 2010s (subpolar gyre expansion and low-salinity anomaly) stopped this movement, which triggered a biodiversity collapse in the North Sea. Further, North Sea dinoflagellate biomass remained low because of warming. Our results, therefore, reveal that regional climate warming and changes in oceanic circulation strongly influenced shifts in dinoflagellate biomass and biodiversity.

Investigation of the Source of Iceland Basin Freshening: Virtual Particle Tracking with Satellite-Derived Geostrophic Surface Velocities

In the 2010s, a large freshening event similar to past Great Salinity Anomalies occurred in the Iceland Basin that has since propagated into the Irminger Sea. The source waters of this fresh anomaly were hypothesized to have come from an eastward diversion of the Labrador Current, a finding that has since been supported by recent modeling studies. In this study, we investigate the pathways of the freshwater anomaly using a purely observational approach: particle tracking using satellite altimetry-derived surface velocity fields. Particle trajectories originating in the Labrador Current and integrated forward in time entered the Iceland Basin during the freshening event at nearly twice the frequency observed prior to 2009, suggesting an increased presence of Labrador Current-origin water in the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough during the freshening. We observe a distinct regime change in 2009, similar to the timing found in the previous modeling papers. These spatial shifts were accompanied by faster transit times along the pathways which led to along-stream convergence and more particles arriving to the eastern subpolar gyre. These findings support the hypothesis that a diversion of relatively fresh Labrador Current waters eastward from the Grand Banks can explain the unprecedented freshening in the Iceland Basin.

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, providing the hope that synchronizing ocean circulation with observations can improve decadal predictions, notably of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Climate predictions require a starting point which is a reconstruction of the past climate. This is usually performed with data assimilation methods that blend available observations and climate model states together. There is no unique method to derive the initial conditions. Moreover, this can be performed using full-field observations or their anomalies superimposed on the model's climatology to avoid strong drifts in predictions. How critical ocean circulation drifts are for prediction skill has not been assessed yet. We analyze this possible connection using the dataset of 12 decadal prediction systems from the World Meteorological Organization Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. We find a variety of initial AMOC errors within the predictions related to a dynamically imbalanced ocean states leading to strongly displaced or multiple maxima in the overturning structures. This likely results in a blend of what is known as model drift and initial shock. We identify that the AMOC initialization influences the quality of the SPG predictions. When predictions show a large initial error in their AMOC, they usually have low skill for predicting internal variability of the SPG for a time horizon of 6-10 years. Full-field initialized predictions with low AMOC drift show better SPG skill than those with a large AMOC drift. Nevertheless, while the anomaly-initialized predictions do not experience large drifts, they show low SPG skill when skill also present in historical runs is removed using a residual correlation metric. Thus, reducing initial shock and model biases for the ocean circulation in prediction systems might help to improve their prediction for the SPG beyond 5 years. Climate predictions could also benefit from quality-check procedure for assimilation/initialization because currently the research groups only reveal the problems in initialization once the set of predictions has been completed, which is an expensive effort.

Observed and Projected Changes in North Atlantic Seasonal Temperature Reduction and Their Drivers

AbstractThe autumn‐winter seasonal temperature reduction (STR) of the surface North Atlantic Ocean is investigated with control and climate change simulations of a coupled model and an observation‐based sea surface temperature (SST) data set. In the climate change simulation, an increase in the magnitude of the STR is found over much of the North Atlantic, and this change is particularly marked in sea‐ice affected regions and the subpolar gyre. Similar results for the mid‐high latitude North Atlantic are obtained in the observational analysis. In particular, both the observation and climate model based results show that the STR has increased in magnitude by up to 0.3°C per decade in the subpolar gyre over the period 1951–2020. Drivers for the stronger STR are explored with a focus on potential contributions from increases in either ocean heat loss or the sensitivity of SST to heat loss. Over a large part of the mid‐high latitude North Atlantic surface heat loss is found to have weakened in recent decades and is therefore not responsible for the stronger STR (exceptions to this are the near‐coastal areas where sea‐ice loss is important). In contrast, analysis of daily sensible and latent heat flux data reveals that the sensitivity of SST to heat loss has increased indicating that this term has played a major role in the stronger STR. Areas of greater SST sensitivity (and greater STR) are associated with increased surface stratification brought about predominantly by warming of the northern ocean regions.

The interior spreading story of Labrador Sea Water

The unique convective anomalies of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) can be used as advective tracers when assessing equatorward spreading pathways and timescales of LSW. In this study, we explore advective pathways of two LSW classes formed in the 1990s and early 2000s, respectively, along constant neutral density planes. Hydrographic observations showcase the prevalence of both LSW classes within the Atlantic interior, supporting a recirculation feature that branches from the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) at 36°N among other pathways. Spreading characteristics of both LSW classes from the Labrador Sea to the subtropics are reinforced through a spatial pattern analysis of salinity anomalies and geostrophic velocities along the characteristic neutral density planes of each respective LSW class. We observe both classes to advect out of the Labrador Sea to (i) the eastern subpolar region and down the eastern boundary towards the Atlantic interior, (ii) directly into the Atlantic interior likely from an injection by recirculations from the subpolar gyre and DWBC leakage, and (iii) equatorward along the western boundary via the DWBC. Findings highlight the abundance of LSW within the Atlantic interior, not just along the western boundary, suggesting that interior pathways play an influential role on the export of these subpolar climate signals.

Last Glacial – Holocene variability of the European Slope Current, NE Atlantic

The upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-latitudes of the Northeast Atlantic remains poorly studied. This study provides a complete overview of the glacial, deglacial and Holocene dynamics of the easternmost portion of the AMOC upper branch, namely the European Slope Current (ESC) and its glacial equivalent known as the Glacial Eastern Boundary Current (GEBC). This is achieved through the study of the sediment core SU81–44 retrieved from the southern Bay of Biscay (BoB) (∼1000 m water depth), and by using a multiproxy approach (i.e. benthic foraminiferal assemblage, grain size proxies, oxygen and carbon stable isotopes, and neodymium isotopic composition of foraminiferal shells). During the glacial period and the onset of the deglaciation, the grain size proxies at SU81–44 fluctuate significantly. These fluctuations are coherent with changes in relative densities of benthic foraminiferal indicator species of current strength and ventilation, thus highlighting significant changes in the GEBC vigor through time. The SU81–44 data confirm the Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial/faster-stadial/slower flow pattern previously observed in northern BoB. Our results also provide new constraints on the strength of the slope current during the late deglaciation and Holocene period with a significant reinvigoration of the ESC, and by extension the upper branch of the AMOC during the Bølling-Allerød warming. This seems to confirm the crucial role of the ESC in deep water formation at high northern latitudes, as it is the case today. Finally, our data show a progressive weakening of the ESC during the Holocene. We hypothesize a link with a long-term decrease in the density gradient between low and high latitudes that can be attributed to long term changes in insolation and the strength of the subpolar gyre dynamics.

Buoyancy forcing and the subpolar Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its variability are examined in terms of the overturning in density space and diapycnal water mass transformation. The magnitude of the mean overturning is similar to the surface water mass transformation, but the density and properties of these waters are modified by diapycnal mixing. Surface waters are progressively densified while circulating cyclonically around the subpolar gyre, with the densest waters and deepest convection occurring in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas. The eddy-driven interaction between the convective interior and boundary currents is a key to the export of dense waters from marginal seas. Due to the multitude of pathways of dense waters within the subpolar gyre, as well as mixing with older waters, waters exiting the subpolar gyre have a wide range of ages, with a mean age on the order of a decade. As a result, interannual changes in water mass transformation are mostly balanced locally and do not result in changes in export to the subtropics. Only persistent changes in water mass transformation result in changes in export to the subtropics. The dilution of signals from upstream water mass transformation suggests that variability in export of dense waters to the subtropics may be controlled by other processes, including interaction of dense waters with the energetic upper ocean. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Two centuries of southwest Iceland annually-resolved marine temperature reconstructed from Arctica islandica shells

Iceland's exposure to major ocean current pathways of the central North Atlantic makes it a useful location for developing long-term proxy records of past marine climate. Such records provide more detailed understanding of the full range of past variability which is necessary to improve predictions of future changes. We constructed a 225-year (1791–2015 CE) master shell growth chronology from 29 shells of Arctica islandica collected at 100 m water depth in southwest Iceland (Faxaflói). The growth chronology provides a robust age model for shell oxygen isotope (δ18Oshell) data produced at annual resolution for 251 years (1765–2015 CE). The temperature reconstruction derived from δ18Oshell shows coherence with May–October local surface temperature records and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic region, suggesting it is a useful proxy indicator of water temperature variability at 100 m depth within Faxaflói. Field correlations between the shell-based records and gridded sea surface temperature data reveal strong positive correlations between the 1-year lagged shell growth and temperatures within the subpolar gyre post-1972, suggesting a delayed influence of subpolar gyre dynamics on ecological indicators in southwest Iceland in recent decades. However, the shell growth chronology and δ18Oshell record generally show relatively weak and insignificant correlations with larger region climate indices including the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, and East Atlantic pattern. Therefore the interannual variations in the newly produced shell-based records appear to reflect more local to regional dynamics around southwest Iceland than large-scale modes of climate variability.

Coupled Feedbacks From the Tropical Pacific to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractThe tropical Pacific Ocean is a key regulator of Earth's climate, with teleconnections that influence remote locations all around the world. Here we use partially coupled climate model experiments to show that tropical Pacific cooling related to an abrupt Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown can strengthen the AMOC by ∼25%. This tropical‐extratropical teleconnection occurs initially via atmospheric Rossby waves propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic which alter surface climate conditions locally. These changes facilitate ocean heat loss from the subpolar gyre, favoring enhanced oceanic convection. The AMOC strengthening is subsequently enhanced by anomalous northward salt advection in the Atlantic, with a potential contribution from oceanic wave adjustment triggered by increased Southern Ocean westerly winds. These results highlight the influence of the tropical Pacific on the AMOC on multidecadal timescales and suggest that cold phases of tropical Pacific decadal variability could drive temporary strengthening of the AMOC.

Late Cenozoic sea-surface-temperature evolution of the South Atlantic Ocean

Abstract. At present, a strong latitudinal sea-surface-temperature (SST) gradient of ∼ 16 ∘C exists across the Southern Ocean, maintained by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and a set of complex frontal systems. Together with the Antarctic ice masses, this system has formed one of the most important global climate regulators. The timing of the onset of the ACC system, its development towards modern-day strength and the consequences for the latitudinal SST gradient around the southern Atlantic Ocean are still uncertain. Here we present new TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbon atoms)-derived SST records from two sites located east of Drake Passage (south-western South Atlantic) to assist in better understanding two critical time intervals of prominent climate transitions during the Cenozoic: the late Eocene–early Oligocene (Ocean Drilling Program, ODP, Site 696) and Middle–Late Miocene (IODP Site U1536) transitions. Our results show temperate conditions (20–11 ∘C) during the first time interval, with a weaker latitudinal SST gradient (∼ 8 ∘C) across the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean compared to present day. We ascribe the similarity in SSTs between Sites 696 and 511 in the late Eocene–early Oligocene South Atlantic to a persistent, strong subpolar gyre circulation connecting the sites, which can only exist in the absence of a strong throughflow across the Drake Passage. Surprisingly, the southern South Atlantic record Site 696 shows comparable SSTs (∼ 12–14 ∘C) during both the earliest Oligocene oxygen isotope step (EOIS, ∼ 33.65 Ma) and the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO, ∼ 16.5 Ma). Apparently, maximum Oligocene Antarctic ice volume could coexist with warm ice-proximal surface ocean conditions, while at similar ocean temperatures, the Middle Miocene Antarctic ice sheet was likely reduced. Only a few Middle–Late Miocene (discontinuous) high-latitude records exist due to ice advances causing unconformities. Our low-resolution Site U1536 record of southern South Atlantic SSTs cooled to ∼ 5 ∘C during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT, 14 Ma), making it the coldest oceanic region in the poorly recorded Antarctic realm and likely the main location for deep-water formation. The already-cold south-western South Atlantic conditions at the MMCT with relatively moderate additional cooling during the Late Miocene contrasts with the profound cooling in the lower latitudes and other sectors of the Southern Ocean due to northward expansion of the Southern Ocean frontal systems.

Drift bottle data hint at large-scale ocean circulation changes

Over the last two decades, in an effort to engage youth in polar science, the Students On Ice (SOI; https://studentsonice.com/) project has become a platform for youth to partake in scientific expeditions around the globe. Among the various activities offered, youth are able to join cruises in the North Atlantic or Arctic, and drop sealed glass bottles into the ocean. Of the thousands that have been deployed, 5% of bottles have been recovered and reported back to SOI with details on when and where they were found. Here, we compare the observational bottle data with virtual particle trajectories from a high resolution regional ocean model. Although modelling results indicate a higher likelihood of bottles reaching the shores of the western Atlantic, the majority of recovered bottles were found on the eastern side of the Atlantic. We attribute this disparity to differences in population density in Canada and Europe, biasing the recovery rates. Despite this bias, we find that changes in recovery locations over time are consistent with changes in the main ocean currents associated with the contraction and expansion of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, as simulated in our ocean model. In 2007, a large number of bottles were found in Norway, coinciding with a contracted North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre during 2004-2008. While between 2012-2016, the majority of bottles were recovered on the British Isles, during a time of gyre expansion. These results underline the importance of large scale oceanic cycles for tracking marine debris and pollution, and show how even simple data collection methods, such as drift bottles, can provide clues to the changes in the large scale ocean circulation.

The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the quadrupled CO2 experiments conducted under the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are examined. Increased CO2 triggers extensive Arctic warming, causing widespread melting of sea ice. The resulting freshwater spreads southward, first from the Labrador Sea and then the Nordic Seas, and proceeds along the eastern coast of North America. The freshwater enters the subpolar gyre north of the separated Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current. This decreases the density gradient across the current and the current weakens in response, reducing the inflow to the deepwater production regions. The AMOC cell weakens in tandem, first near the North Atlantic Current and then spreading to higher and lower latitudes. This contrasts with the common perception that freshwater caps the convection regions, stifling deepwater production; rather, it is the inflow to the subpolar gyre that is suppressed. Changes in surface temperature have a much weaker effect, and there are no consistent changes in local or remote wind forcing among the models. Thus an increase in freshwater discharge, primarily from the Labrador Sea, is the precursor to AMOC weakening in these simulations.