Subjective Expectations Research Articles

Asset Pricing with Fading Memory

Abstract Building on evidence that lifetime experiences shape individuals’ macroeconomic expectations, we study asset prices in an economy in which a representative agent learns with fading memory about unconditional mean endowment growth. With IID fundamentals, constant risk aversion, and memory decay calibrated to microdata, the model generates a high and strongly countercyclical objective equity premium, while the subjective equity premium is virtually constant. Consistent with this theory, experienced payout growth (a weighted average of past growth rates) is negatively related to future stock market excess returns and subjective expectations errors in surveys, and positively to analysts’ forecasts of long-run earnings growth.

What can be done to control the placebo response in clinical trials? A narrative review

The desire to reduce high placebo response rates in clinical trials is a popular concept. However, few studies have rigorously examined the effectiveness of methods to control for placebo responses that are relevant to randomized controlled trials. The primary objective of this review was to evaluate the effect of experimental placebo manipulations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We critically reviewed studies designed to manipulate placebo responses including positive expectations regarding the effectiveness of the placebo treatment, manipulating the time spent with subjects, and training study staff and subjects to accurately report symptom severity. These efforts have generally resulted in reduced placebo response and improved discrimination between drug and placebo. Interventions that neutralize staff and subject expectations and improve the ability of subjects to accurately report symptom severity have shown the most promise. Reduction of the placebo response has the potential to accelerate the development of new therapeutics.

A cross-sectional study of physical and psychosocial expectations of orthognathic surgery patients based on their typology

AimsOrthognathic surgery corrects craniofacial and dentofacial disproportion that compromises breathing, masticatory function, and aesthetics. A patient's typology influences their psychosocial and physical pre-operative expectations and post-operative perceptions and is an emerging area of research. This study aims to evaluate subjective expectations and/or perceived outcomes of orthognathic surgery; and whether orthognathic surgery meets patient expectations. MethodA questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was administered pre- and post-operatively. Typologically, patients were classified as metamorphosisers – those with high expectation of psychosocial and physical transformation; evolvers – opposite of metamorphosisers; pragmatists – those with low expectation of psychosocial and high expectation of physical transformation; or shedders – the opposite of pragmatists. A Chi-Square goodness fit test with p < .01 considered significant was used to evaluate whether orthognathic surgery met patient expectations. ResultsA total of 27 patients consisting of 19 pre- and 8 post-operative groups completed the survey over an 11-month study period. Metamorphosisers numerically dominated in both pre- and post-operative groups, indicating that most patients in this study had high expectations and high perceptions of psychosocial and physical transformation after orthognathic surgery. Chi-Squared testing showed statistical significance for psychosocial transformation (X2 pre-operative group = 46.3; X2 post-operative group = 67.4) and physical transformation (X2 pre-operative group = 78.4; X2 post-operative group = 32.1), p = .000001 respectively. ConclusionsMost patients had high expectations of physical and psychosocial transformation following orthognathic surgery. Treatment outcomes met these expectations. Patient typology can help orthognathic teams understand and manage these expectations.

Embodied Loss and the Psychophysiological Effects of Pain Examined With Traditional and New Behavioral Measures

Based on a robust decision phenomenon of loss aversion, people are distinctly more sensitive to losses than to gains. The psychological pain experienced due to a loss is greater than the pleasure experienced due to a gain of the same amount. We argue that physical pain can be viewed as a psychological loss with diminishing sensitivity. Pain thus would be preferred summed rather than distributed. The results from 89 student-participants recruited from a public university in the Midwest US revealed that chronic pain is correlated with reduced subjective life expectancy and increased impulsivity. We found a significant propensity to prefer sharp-and-shorter pain to milder-and-longer pain. The loss-aversion score predicted this propensity in pain management. We developed a new behavioral measure of Band-Aid removal as a predictor for pain duration-intensity tradeoff. The higher the Band-Aid removal time, the higher the preference for higher-duration and lower intensity, and the lower willingness to seek medical attention for pain. The participants also revealed a higher willingness to seek medical help for generalized pain than localized pain to reduce information ambiguity.

Housing and household consumption: An investigation of the wealth and collateral effects

The macroeconomic literature has identified a robust relationship between house prices and consumption at the aggregate level. The microeconomic literature points to three possible mechanisms behind this relationship: the wealth effect, whereby households respond to changes in housing wealth by spending/saving more; the collateral effect whereby households use the main residence as collateral for consumer loans; and the common causality effect whereby one or more variables affect both house prices and consumption simultaneously. I test the implications of these mechanisms using data from a panel survey representative of the Dutch population. For that purpose, I employ measures of subjective house prices and subjective house price expectations. Results suggest that the wealth and the collateral effects play, at best, minor roles in explaining the aggregate relationship between house prices and consumption.

Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

A platform might have the potential to bring enormous value to its users. However, without a well-orchestrated launch strategy that coordinates a sufficient number of users onto the platform, this potential will not be realized. The theoretical literature predicts that one approach to coordinating platform take-off is to influence the market’s subjective focal expectations of the future installed base of users. This paper reports on a field experiment investigating the causal role of subjective expectations in the launch of a new platform venture, in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals. The invitations included randomized statements regarding the size of the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). I find that simple, subjective, uncommitted, and relatively costless statements broadcasted by the platform with the goal of influencing market expectations were indeed able to influence platform takeoff and overcome an initial chicken-and-egg problem. These broadcasted subjective statements regarding future installed base had a larger influence on adoption rates than did disclosures of the true current installed base during early adoption. However, these subjective statements of expected future installed base ceased to have any effect once the true current installed base grew large. I discuss implications for the promotion, marketing, and evangelism of new platform ventures. This paper was accepted by Duncan Simester, marketing.

Subjective expectations concerning life expectancy and age-related health burden

The growing disease burden due to ageing populations poses a challenge on both individuals and societies. To explore the general population's subjective expectations concerning disability, care needs and employment at older ages. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey. We were the first to measure subjective health expectations using the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) of official health statistics. Respondents' actual status and subjective expectations concerning employment, care needs and informal caregiver status, self-perceived health and sociodemographic factors were queried. We estimated sample characteristics by local polynomial smoothing and compared with subjective expectations at ages of 60/70/80/90 years. Determinants of subjective expectations were analyzed via interval regression. From 1000 subjects, 914 provided valid responses. Mean (± SD) age was 51.2 (± 15.2) years, and 55.8% of respondents were women. Paid employment was more frequent among men (p<0.001), while informal caregiver status among women (p = 0.010). Mean (± SD) subjective life expectancy (81.0 ± 11.1 years) was 1.3 years longer (p<0.001) than actuarial life-expectancy (79.6 ± 3.7 years), while mean subjective healthy life expectancy (sHLE) (64.6 ± 15.2 years) was 5.3 years shorter than actuarial healthy life expectancy (70.0 ± 4.2 years; p<0.001). sHLE and care needs were mainly determined by respondents' self-perceived health. Lifestyle risks were not associated with sHLE in women, while pervasive drinker or obese men expected longer healthy life span. Determinants of sHLE showed considerable gender differences. Subjective expectations concerning health, employment and care needs differ from actual values of the general population, with considerable gender differences. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(23): 911-923.

Early Pension Claiming and Expected Longevity: A Register-Based Study on the Take-up of the Partial Old-Age Pension in Finland

Abstract As of February 2017, Finns have been able to claim a partial old-age pension early at age 61 independent of their working hours or earnings. Focusing on the take-up of the partial old-age pension in Finland, this article investigates whether early pension claiming is associated with expected longevity. We assume parental longevity to signal expected longevity. We use total register data on those eligible to claim a partial pension at age 61 in 2018 or 2019 and link this data to the information on their parents’ birth and death dates. To our knowledge, there exists no previous register-based study that uses parental longevity to explain pension claiming behavior. Since the longevity of the same-sex parent in particular influences subjective life expectancy, the variables of interest were the same-sex parent being alive and the age (at death) of the same-sex parent. The baseline results show a negative connection between the same-sex parent being alive and claiming. The connection disappears after controlling for gender, but the negative connection between the age (at death) of the same-sex parent and the claiming remains significant in a fully adjusted model. Known risk factors for shorter longevity, such as being male, having a lower income and wealth, also increase the likelihood of claiming. The results indicate that people take their expected longevity into account when making pension claiming decisions. This may hold critical implications for actuarial neutrality, the key assumption of the pension system design, and can lead to an unexpected increase in public pension expenditure.

Seasonal comfort temperature and occupant's adaptive behaviour in a naturally ventilated university workshop building under the composite climate of India

In the present research work, the authors investigated the seasonal thermal environment and thermal perception of university subjects in a naturally ventilated workshop building under the composite climate of India. Total 1460 subjective responses were collected during the field study in the year, 2019. Standard Effective Temperature (SET*) has been used as a rationally derived thermal comfort index to study the combined effects of air temperature, relative humidity and airspeed on perceived thermal sensation and occupant's preference under high metabolic rates. Probit analysis showed more than 80% of subjects were voting comfortable (±1 Thermal sensation votes) when SET* ranged between 25°C-33 °C. Seasonal mean comfort temperature varied more than 4.8 °C, while, preferred temperature was noted about 3 °C lower than their mean Griffiths comfort temperature. The adaptive relation developed from the collected database under high metabolic activities was compared with existing national and international comfort standards. The slope coefficient for adaptive relation was observed close to the adaptive model of ASHRAE Standard 55–2017 but lower than the National Building Code of India, 2016. Further, adaptive use of fans and windows were analyzed using logistic regression models and predicted about 80% of fans and windows were in operation at 30 °C. To confirm the adaptive mechanism, the interrelation of other contextual factors like gender, clothing insulation, airspeed, metabolic activities, etc. to thermal comfort expectations of subjects were also studied.

The informational content of subjective expectations for health service use

BackgroundThis study aims to evaluate the informational content of people’s subjective probability expectations for using various health services.MethodsUsing a sample of 1,528 Australian adults (25-64 years), I compared stated probabilities of visiting various health service providers (hospitals, dentists, optometrists, physiotherapists and related care providers, naturopaths and massage therapists) with past utilization and with predicted utilization estimated out-of-sample. I also estimated whether past utilization and subjective expectations were predicted by the same covariates. Finally, I estimated whether subjective expectations had predictive power for the choice to purchase private health insurance conditional on past utilization and other controls.ResultsSubjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. Subjective expectations also add predictive power to models estimating insurance take-up, even after conditioning on prior health care use and other risk factors.ConclusionThe findings are indicative that on average people form quite accurate expectations, and support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research.

Human Development by Gender and National Culture: A Comparative Analysis

The differences between female and male human development indicators are evidence that the general scenario (whole population) presents a blurred analytical viewpoint. Female schooling and life expectancy have advanced, but income is far from keeping pace. For women, legislation does not seem to be enough without the cultural legitimisation; for men, the cultural dependency on psychopathologies derived from the subjective expectations of masculinity is more evident. However, no study has apparently analysed the influence of national culture (NC) on human development (HD), by comparing the General, Female, and Male scenarios. This research sought to fill this gap by applying univariate and multivariate techniques to the data from 59 countries, using the Hofstede cultural dimensions as independent variables, HD indicators as dependent variables, and democracy, agricultural dependence, and urbanisation as controls. The influence of culture is a reality in all scenarios, but differs according to gender. For women, individualism appears to be a more powerful ally, and masculinity and uncertainty avoidance more harmful factors than for men; for men, power distance and indulgence have a greater impact than on women. Considering HD as a whole, an autonomous thinking society that rejects unjustifiable inequalities seems to be the most important cultural enabler.

Secure attachment primes reduce fear consolidation.

Recent studies have found that attachment security primes can inhibit fear acquisition. This current study aimed to examine whether a brief imaginal prime of one's attachment figure could impact on fear consolidation. A total of 75 participants underwent fear conditioning on Day 1 and fear recall was tested on Day 2. Immediately following conditioning, half the participants were instructed to imagine an attachment figure while the other half imagined a nonattachment positive situation. Fear-potentiated startle and subjective expectancy of shock ratings were used as the measures of fear learning across trials. The attachment group showed significantly lower levels of fear recall on Day 2 at both physiological and subjective levels. Furthermore, this effect was moderated by attachment anxiety, such that it was greatest for individuals who were securely attached. These findings suggest that attachment relationships are protective during the consolidation of fear memories, and may have implications for how social attachments may impact how anxiety disorders can develop.

The prospective role of epistemic curiosity in national standardized test performance

To examine the prospective association between epistemic curiosity and academic achievement, this study focused on 820 (64.2% females) second-year high school students (age 17–18), and their performances in the matriculation exams one year later. In addition, two types of epistemic curiosity, the interest and deprivation types, were examined as independent predictors. Furthermore, the role of curiosity in matriculation exam performance was examined at the general and subject level (i.e., mother tongue and math) by accounting for gender, social economic status, and subject motivation (i.e., subject expectancy and task values). Moreover, we examined the possible mediating role of subject motivation between curiosity and achievement. The path models' results showed that interest-type curiosity had a direct relation with overall matriculation performance, whereas deprivation-type curiosity had an indirect relation only. For mother tongue performance, interest-type curiosity was the main prospective predictor, although its direct relation disappeared. For math matriculation performance, only deprivation-type curiosity had an indirect relation. The results imply that epistemic curiosity can promote academic achievement, but that the association is achieved through different pathways that depend on curiosity types, motivation mediators, and the domain level of achievements.

Exposure-response modeling of peficitinib efficacy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

The aim was to analyze the relationship between peficitinib exposure and efficacy response according to American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 criteria and 28‐joint disease activity score based on C‐reactive protein (DAS28‐CRP) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, and to identify relevant covariates by developing exposure–response models. The analysis incorporated results from three multicenter, placebo‐controlled, double‐blind studies. As an exposure parameter, individual post hoc pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were obtained from a previously constructed population PK model. Longitudinal ACR20 response rate and individual longitudinal DAS28‐CRP measurements were modeled by a non‐linear mixed effect model. Influential covariates were explored, and their effects on efficacy were quantitatively assessed and compared. The exposure–response models of effect of peficitinib on duration‐dependent increase in ACR20 response rate and decrease in DAS28‐CRP were adequately described by a continuous time Markov model and an indirect response model, respectively, with a sigmoidal Emax saturable of drug exposure in RA patients. The significant covariates were DAS28‐CRP and total bilirubin at baseline for the ACR20 response model, and CRP at baseline and concomitant methotrexate treatment for the DAS28–CRP model. The covariate effects were highly consistent between the two models. Our exposure–response models of peficitinib in RA patients satisfactorily described duration‐dependent improvements in ACR20 response rates and DAS28‐CRP measurements, and provided consistent covariate effects. Only the ACR20 model incorporated a patient's subjective high expectations just after the start of the treatment. Therefore, due to their similarities and differences, both models may have relevant applications in the development of RA treatment.Clinical trial registrationNCT01649999 (RAJ1), NCT02308163 (RAJ3), NCT02305849 (RAJ4).

A longitudinal multilevel analysis of the evermigrated population subjective HIV infection expectation in Malawi

Objective The primary purpose of this study is to assess the variance in the effects of factors influencing ever migrated Malawian population’s subjective HIV infection expectation. Design Using data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) survey (1998-2010), 7805 ever migrated Malawian adults were selected for the study. Summary statistics, logistic regression and longitudinal multi-level models were fitted for the study. A binary logistic regression was used to estimate the direction and magnitude of the associations between the variables selected for the study Five multilevel models with random intercepts and coefficients nominal response were fitted. Results The study revealed that sexual behaviours had the most significant effect on ever migrated Malawian’s subjective HIV infection expectation. All metrics showed that the conditional growth model had the most signficant outcome. The addition of time and other variables as predictors had a significant effect on the conditional growth model. Conclusion Interventions designed to decrease the spread of HIV should target sexual behaviours and widespread testing among the ever migrated population to reduce subjective HIV infection thoughts.

Capturing Subjective Age, Subjective Life Expectancy, and Their Links With Older Adults' Health: The Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.

Objectives: This study compares the associations of two subjective lifetime perspectives, subjective age (SA) and subjective life expectancy (SLE), with physical performance, self-rated health, and depressive symptoms. Methods: 64 91-year-old participants were selected from three waves of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (2008/09, 2011/12, 2015/16; n = 1822 participants, n = 3500 observations) that included graphical and numerical measures of SA and SLE. We used generalized estimating equations to examine their associations with health. Results: Associations of SA/SLE with health were weaker for physical performance than for self-rated health and depressive symptoms. The associations of SA and SLE with physical performance were of similar magnitude but with self-rated health depended on the type of measure. Depressive symptoms, instead, showed a stronger association with SA than with SLE. Graphical measures showed weaker associations than numerical measures. Discussion: The way in which subjective lifetime perspectives and health are conceptualized and measured influences the strength of their associations.

Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes

AbstractMany young people lack clear subjective occupational expectations. A concern is how they will perform later in life. We examine the impact of uncertain expectations at age 19 on education and labour market outcomes at age 30. We use the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 survey conducted on a nationally representative sample of 15‐year‐olds, a follow‐up survey in 2004, and administrative registry data from 2004–2014. We find that uncertain expectations are associated with low educational attainment and weak labour market attachment. This result applies mainly for young men and for young people from low socioeconomic backgrounds.

Does Computer-Aided Instruction Improve Children's Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills?

This paper examines the causal effects of computer-aided instruction (CAI) on children's cognitive and noncognitive skills. We ran a clustered randomized controlled trial at five elementary schools with more than 1,600 students near Phnom Penh, Cambodia. After 3 months of intervention, we find that the average treatment effects on cognitive skills are positive and statistically significant, while hours of study were unchanged both at home and in the classroom. This indicates that CAI is successful in improving students’ learning productivity per hour. Furthermore, we find that CAI raises students’ subjective expectation to attend college in the future.

Do Informal Caregivers Expect to Die Earlier? A Longitudinal Study with a Population-Based Sample on Subjective Life Expectancy of Informal Caregivers

Introduction: Subjective life expectancy is a good predictor of health and could therefore be a relevant factor in the informal caregiving context. However, no research has been conducted on the perception of life expectancy by informal caregivers. This is the first study that examines the association between transitioning into, and out of, informal caregiving, and subjective life expectancy, and the relevance of employment status and gender for these associations. Methods: A longitudinal study was conducted with data from the German Ageing Survey (waves 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017). Up to 20,774 observations pooled over all waves were included in the main models. In total, 1,219 transitions into and 1,198 transitions out of informal caregiving were observed. Fixed effects (FE) regression analysis was used. Moderator and stratified analyses were conducted with gender and employment status used as moderator variables and to stratify the sample. Sociodemographic information, health, and lifestyle factors were controlled for. Results: Results of adjusted FE regression analyses indicated a significant reduction of subjective life expectancy when transitioning into informal caregiving. No significant change was found when transitioning out of informal caregiving. Subjective life expectancy was significantly decreased when employed individuals transitioned into informal caregiving and significantly increased when they transitioned out of caregiving. Findings for women transitioning into informal caregiving indicated a significant decrease in subjective life expectancy, while no significant change was found among men. Conclusion: The study’s findings indicate that informal caregivers, female and employed caregivers in particular, perceive informal care provision as dangerous for their longevity and expect to die earlier when transitioning into informal caregiving. Thus, supportive interventions for informal caregivers, particularly employed and female informal caregivers, are recommended.

Trajectories of fear learning in healthy participants are able to distinguish groups that differ in individual characteristics, chronicity of fear and intrusions

Background and objectivesStudies on the development and treatment of anxiety disorders mostly focus on the comparison of predefined groups. An alternative approach is to use data-driven latent class growth analyses (LCGA) to determine differentiation between groups based on particular mechanistic factors. This study validated the use of LCGA on responses in a compact fear conditioning task and whether specific characteristics are associated with maladaptive fear learning trajectories. MethodsHealthy subjects (N = 300) completed a fear conditioning task that included uninstructed and instructed acquisition and extinction phases. Subjective fearfulness and US expectancy were used as outcome measures. Latent classes in the responses to the CS+ (coupled with a scream) and the CS- (control stimulus) were determined based on trajectories across the experimental phases. State and trait anxiety were measured during testing, and return of fear and intrusions were measured one and six weeks later. ResultsFear learning trajectories of poor extinction in responding to the CS+ and generalization of fear to the CS- were associated with higher state and trait anxiety. Individuals belonging to these trajectories reported more intrusions, fear and had higher US expectancy ratings after 1 week. LimitationsOnly 56% of participants completed the six weeks follow-up measures. ConclusionFear learning trajectories are associated with individual characteristics, return of fear and intrusions. Next, this task will be implemented in clinical practice to assess its predictive power for the extent to which patients benefit from exposure treatments.