Subjective Expectations Research Articles

What Makes the Time Tradeoff Tick? A Sociopsychological Explanation.

A theoretical interpretation of factors influencing time tradeoff (TTO) scores is lacking. In this conceptual study, we use a sociopsychological theory, terror management theory (TMT), to explain how death thoughts may play a role in the TTO method. TMT describes how respondents suppress death thoughts by invoking psychological defenses, such as self-esteem, and by bolstering cultural values. What is the relation between TMT and TTO scores? A framework is developed to link TMT to TTO scores. Predictions of the framework pertain to the directionality of relations between characteristics (e.g., being religious) affecting TTO scores. These predictions are then tested against the findings in the literature. The value "prolonging life" can be used as a linking pin between TTO and TMT as it is relevant for both TMT and TTO. It is argued that the value "prolonging life" is related to TTO scores but also to TMT defense strengths. Thus, TMT defense strengths become associated with trading. Directionality predictions of the framework were confirmed in 34 out of 39 retrospective tests (P < 0.001). Directionalities of relations between TTO scores and socioeconomic characteristics, euthanasia, subjective life expectancy, and religion were explained in terms of TMT defense strengths. Our framework offers a theory-based and parsimonious framework to think about characteristics influencing TTO scores. Terror management theory (TMT) is a sociopsychological theory about death thoughts.Several factors are known to influence TTO scores.A new framework applies TMT to TTO scores to interpret such factors.Our framework is mostly of importance to health economists studying the TTO.

There are multiple clocks that time us: Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations among 14 alternative indicators of age and aging.

Aging is a complex process influenced by mechanisms operating at numerous levels of functioning. Multiple biomarkers of age have been identified, yet we know little about how the different alternative age indicators are intertwined. In the Berlin Aging Study II (nmin= 328; nmax= 1,517, women = 51%; 14.27 years of education), we examined how levels and seven-year changes in indicators derived from blood assays, MRI brain scans, other-ratings, and self-reports converge among older adults. We included eight epigenetic biomarkers (incl. five epigenetic "clocks"), a BioAge composite from clinical laboratory parameters, brain age, skin age, subjective age, subjective life expectancy, and future health horizon. We found moderate associations within aging domains, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally over seven years. However, associations across different domains were infrequent and modest. Notably, participants with older BioAge had correspondingly older epigenetic ages. Our results suggest that different aging clocks are only loosely interconnected and that more specific measures are needed to differentiate healthy from unhealthy aging.

Macroeconomic perceptions, financial constraints, and anomalies

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of subjective macroeconomic expectations on the cross-section of equity returns. We argue that an upward revision in expectations of macroeconomic productivity might be accompanied by an excessive increase in investment and external financing, inflated current equity prices, and thus lowered subsequent returns, particularly for financially constrained firms. Thus, following upward revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity, subsequent returns are relatively low for small firms, value firms, low-investment firms, risky firms, unprofitable firms, low-quality firms, and financially distressed firms—all of which are more financially constrained. In sharp contrast, following downward revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity, these categories of firms earn relatively high subsequent returns. We find that revisions in subjective macroeconomic expectations induce strong predictable time variation in a large set of anomalies. In particular, favorable revisions in expectations of macroeconomic productivity predict significantly stronger profitability, quality, distress, and low-risk anomalies but weaker value, investment, and size anomalies.

Smoking-Related Increases in Alcohol Outcomes and Preliminary Evidence for the Protective Effect of a Functional Nicotine Receptor Gene (CHRNA5) Variant on Alcohol Consumption in Individuals Without Alcohol Use Disorder.

Alcohol and nicotine interact with the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor system to alter reward-related responses, thereby contributing to the co-use and misuse of these drugs. A missense polymorphism rs16969968 (G>A) in the CHRNA5 gene has shown a strong association with nicotine-related phenotypes. However, less is known about the impact of this variant on alcohol-related phenotypes. We assessed the main and interactive effect of smoking and rs16969968 polymorphism on alcohol consumption using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Timeline Follow Back (TLFB), and Lifetime Drinking History (LDH) in 980 healthy adults without alcohol use disorder. We further examined the effect of the rs16969968 polymorphism on acute alcohol consumption using a free-access i.v. alcohol self-administration (IV-ASA) human laboratory paradigm in a subset of 153 nonsmoking participants. Subjective alcohol responses, alcohol sensitivity, and expectancy measures were compared between genotype groups (GG; AA/AG). We observed a significant association of smoking with AUDIT, TLFB, and LDH measures across genotype groups, with smokers showing higher scores compared with nonsmokers. Additionally, we found an association between genotype and TLFB-total drinks in the IV-ASA subset, with the GG group showing higher scores than AA/AG group. Relatedly, the alcohol negative expectancy score was significantly lower in the GG group than the AA/AG group. Our findings underscore the association of smoking with alcohol measures. We found preliminary evidence for the protective effect of the functional CHRNA5 polymorphism on alcohol consumption and its association with increased negative alcohol expectancies, which highlights the substantial heterogeneity in alcohol responses.

Gender differences in the added (home) worker effect

This study combines the literature on home production and on the added worker effect as households’ self-insurance mechanisms against unemployment. Exploiting Dutch panel data with detailed information on time use categories and subjective job loss expectations, we estimate the causal effect of an unforeseen job loss on spouses’ time use decisions regarding paid work and home production. In the analysis we explicitly differentiate between males and females who experience sudden unemployment. We find no effect on the intensive or extensive margins of spousal labor supply or on spousal time in home production.

Time-Varying Drivers of Stock Prices

This paper provides novel evidence of the time-varying roles of subjective expectations in explaining stock price variations. Cash flow expectations matter more during times of financial uncertainty and recessions, especially among the hardest-hit industries such as Telecommunications during the dot-com bubble, Financials during the Great Recession, and Healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, discount rates explain more price variations during expansionary periods. Inflation expectations, while accounting for more than half of price fluctuations in high-inflation environments, play a negligible role otherwise. Finally, factor returns tend to move against earnings growth expectations under low financial uncertainty but move in sync with earnings growth expectations when financial uncertainty is high.

Fast frequency modulation is encoded according to the listener expectations in the human subcortical auditory pathway

Abstract Expectations aid and bias our perception. For instance, expected words are easier to recognise than unexpected words, particularly in noisy environments, and incorrect expectations can make us misunderstand our conversational partner. Expectations are combined with the output from the sensory pathways to form representations of auditory objects in the cerebral cortex. Previous literature has shown that expectations propagate further down to subcortical stations during the encoding of static pure tones. However, it is unclear whether expectations also drive the subcortical encoding of subtle dynamic elements of the acoustic signal that are not represented in the tonotopic axis. Here, we tested the hypothesis that subjective expectations drive the encoding of fast frequency modulation (FM) in the human subcortical auditory pathway. We used fMRI to measure neural responses in the human auditory midbrain (inferior colliculus) and thalamus (medial geniculate body). Participants listened to sequences of FM-sweeps for which they held different expectations based on the task instructions. We found robust evidence that the responses in auditory midbrain and thalamus encode the difference between the acoustic input and the subjective expectations of the listener. The results indicate that FM-sweeps are already encoded at the level of the human auditory midbrain and that encoding is mainly driven by subjective expectations. We conclude that the subcortical auditory pathway is integrated in the cortical network of predictive processing and that expectations are used to optimise the encoding of fast dynamic elements of the acoustic signal.

Divine Control Beliefs, Health Locus of Control, and Subjective Life Expectancy in the United States.

Little evidence has considered the extent to which feelings of health-related control may arise from religious beliefs to influence survival expectations. Moreover, research on the linkages between religion and sense of control has yielded mixed results. Using CHAPS (2021) data, this study examines whether divine control beliefs predict subjective life expectancy (SLE), and whether this link is mediated by an individual's health locus of control (HLC). Findings support a mediational model and show that individuals who place more dependence on God report a greater sense of control over their health, which in turn results in greater longevity expectations. Our findings offer insight into the mechanisms that underlie the association between divine control beliefs and SLE and add to the body of literature documenting religion's salutary role in promoting both a sense of empowerment and greater survival expectations.

Multi-position two-phase person-position matching decision-making with intermediary participation

With the rapid development in society, intermediaries play an increasingly important role in person-position matching decision-making. To obtain reasonable enterprise-intermediary matching and enterprise-candidate matching schemes under multiple positions, preferences of enterprises, headhunting companies and candidates should be fully considered from a two-phase perspective. Thus, a two-sided matching decision-making method under the probabilistic linguistic environment is proposed to solve the multi-position two-phase person-position matching problem. First, related theories of probabilistic linguistic term sets and two-sided matching are given. On this basis, the problem of multi-position two-phase person-position matching under the probabilistic linguistic environment is described. The decision-making process is divided into the following two phases: In the first phase, satisfactions of enterprises and headhunting companies are calculated considering subject expectations based on prospect theory. Then, considering the maximization of satisfactions of two-sided subjects, the many-to-many two-sided matching model between enterprises and headhunting companies is established and solved to obtain the optimal many-to-many matching scheme. In the second phase, according to evaluation matrices and expectation matrices, satisfactions of enterprises and candidates under multiple positions are calculated considering intermediary evaluations. Then, considering the maximization of satisfactions of enterprises and candidates, one-to-many matching models and one-to-one stable matching models under multiple positions are developed and solved to obtain the optimal person-position matching schemes under multiple positions. Finally, an example of the person-position matching with intermediary participation is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

How does chronic disease influence subjective life expectancy among middle-aged and older adults? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2018 cross-sectional data.

Chronic diseases have become one of the most important factors threatening human health. Subjective life expectancy (SLE) describes an individual's expectation or subjective perception of lifespan. This article aims to explore the relationship between chronic diseases and SLE, as well as the differences among different age groups and different types of chronic diseases in this relationship. China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) is a nationwide longitudinal study that evaluates the social, economic, and health conditions of middle-aged and older adult families and individuals aged 45 and above in China. In this study, CHARLS used probability proportional to size sampling (PPS sampling) to ensure the breadth and representativeness of the sample. This study selected cross-sectional data from CHARLS 2018, removed missing values, and obtained a valid sample of 10,658 middle-aged and older individuals, of whom 8564 had chronic diseases. After controlling demographic, health behavior, socioeconomic, psychological, and social security factors, an ordered logistic regression was performed to explore the relationship between chronic disease and SLE in middle-aged and older adults. The results show that chronic diseases negatively correlate with SLE in middle-aged and older adults. Middle-aged and older adults with chronic diseases are 36.2% less likely to have high life expectancy than those without chronic diseases. Many different types of chronic diseases are negatively correlated with SLE. Cancer is most negatively correlated with SLE, far exceeding other chronic diseases. Chronic disease and SLE of middle-aged and older adults have age-heterogeneous differences. For middle-aged people aged 45-59 and young older adults aged 60-79, there is a significant correlation between chronic diseases and SLE. However, there is no correlation between chronic diseases and subjective life expectancy in the older population aged 80 and above. The government and society should pay close attention to the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases among middle-aged and older adults and adjust policies and measures according to the population's age structure. In addition, the government and society should pay attention to the spiritual needs of middle-aged and older adults. The government and society should pay more attention to cancer patients. Finally, the scientific research team should also strengthen research on chronic diseases, research and development of specific drugs and vaccines, improve the cure rate of chronic diseases, promote people's health, and make people no longer afraid of diseases.

Is subjective life expectancy stronger in older adults with more physical activity? Evidence from China

To explore the relationship between physical activity and subjective life expectancy in an older population. Repeated-measures ANOVA, as well as construction of a cross-lagged model, was conducted with a sample of 4969 older adults from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study data in 2018 and 2020. It was found that T1 subjective life expectancy significantly predicted T2 physical activity (β=0.03, P < 0.01) and T1 physical activity significantly predicted T2 subjective life expectancy (β=0.05, P < 0.05). There was a significant bidirectional predictive relationship between physical activity and subjective life expectancy in older adults, and physical activity is a causal variable for subjective life expectancy.

Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations Are Meaningful and Important

For decades, households’ subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review shows that household characteristics and the ways in which households collect and process economic information help us understand previously considered puzzling facts about their subjective expectations. In turn, subjective expectations contribute to explain heterogeneous consumption, saving, investment, and debt choices as well as different reactions by similar households to the same monetary and fiscal policy measures. Matching microdata on households’ characteristics with the price signals the same households observe, their subjective expectations, and their real-world economic decisions is crucial to establishing these facts. Our growing understanding of households’ subjective expectations inspires several theoretical and empirical research directions and begets the design of innovative and more effective policy instruments.

Changes in perceived risk and ecosystem services after herbicide use on an aquatic invader

ABSTRACT Biodiversity conservation can entail socially controversial management interventions such as herbicide applications to eradicate aquatic invasive plants from highly productive native ecosystems. This study used a case example of the successful eradication of Alaska’s first aquatic invasive plant, Elodea spp. from two lakes surrounded by waterfront homes with the objective to measure perceived changes in the use of the lakes by local residents. A household survey was conducted with homeowners before and after the application of herbicides to measure public attitudes and human behavior changes related to the use of herbicide. We found fears and subjective expectations of survey respondents did not match the eventually collected objective scientific data on water quality. Also, we measured a significant negative change in lake-related activities over the duration of the management intervention that is smaller compared to the reduced activity level lake residents anticipated before the application of herbicide. Swimming and the consumption of fish caught in the lakes were the most negatively affected ecosystem services. The study showed the indirect and often hidden effects of management interventions on human risk perceptions that can translate to unintended human behavior changes and a reduction in related ecosystem service use. To account for complex social dimensions of controversial resource management interventions, resource managers require information on broad public value trade-offs and perceived risk beyond that which public meetings can provide. In this context, household surveys before and after resource management interventions can offer insights few other approaches can. The potential for more advanced outreach methods is discussed.

Who wants cryptocurrency? The effects of expectations and conjectures

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the factors that make people want to hold cryptocurrency. Besides prior experience with holding crypto, this paper considers various expectations and conjectures about the future as key determinants.Design/methodology/approachData for this study come from an online survey in the USA. Econometric analyses help to quantify the relative importance of drivers of demand for cryptocurrency.FindingsSurvey respondents will more likely hold cryptocurrency in the future the more they expect cryptocurrency to replace government money, to increase transparency in monetary affairs and to yield high profits. Importantly, demand is shown to be driven by the anticipation that nonmonetary uses of the Blockchain technology will have a spillover effect on the Bitcoin price. By contrast, subjective expectations of a crypto-induced financial crisis dampen demand. Econometric analyses show that differences in the future demand among people with and without prior holdings of cryptocurrency largely stem from differences in their expectations.Originality/valueBy relating individuals’ expectations to their plans, the present approach offers more insights than the mere attitude surveys already available. This paper’s insights on crypto demand drivers indicate that regulators should be wary about signaling safety of an asset whose fundamental value is still uncertain.

Exploring thermal comfort and pleasure in outdoor shaded spaces: Inspiration for improving thermal index models

Engaging in outdoor activities offers numerous benefits for physical and mental well-being, highlighting the importance of prioritizing outdoor comfort and safety. Shaded spaces are sought after during hot summers due to their lower surface temperatures and improved thermal comfort. This study conducted group walking experiments in both overhead layers and tree-shaded areas to investigate variations in thermal comfort based on different thermal environments and activity levels. The findings reveal significant differences in the thermal environment between the two areas, with tree shading reducing mean radiant temperature by approximately 3 °C and wind speed by about 1 m/s. Regardless of the walking space, the lowest thermal pleasure and comfort are experienced at a speed of 1.80 m/s. Moreover, the study demonstrates that thermal pleasure (Tp) is influenced by both the objective thermal environment and the human body's thermoregulatory mechanisms. It is also affected by subjective psychological expectations, reflecting the combined outcome of metabolic heat production, external thermal stimuli, and psychological emotions. Thus, pedestrians experienced different levels of thermal pleasure based on their walking speeds and the type of shaded space. These findings underscore the importance of integrating physiological and psychological factors into thermal index models to accurately evaluate outdoor thermal comfort conditions. The study contributes to developing improved thermal index models by enhancing their correlation with the perceived thermal sensations and considering the emotional aspect of thermal pleasure. The implications of this research can guide urban planning efforts to provide more comfortable and enjoyable outdoor shaded spaces.

Analysis of Teacher Competence Using the Madrasah Digital Report Applicationin Managing Student Learning Outcome

The purpose of this study is to ascertain the competence of teachers in utilizing the Madrasah Digital Report Card application for managing students' learning outcomes at the Private Tsanawiyah Madrasah Hubbul Wathan Modal Bangsa, Langkat County, located on Jl. Pasar 7 Bandar Meriah, North Namu Ukur Village, Sei Bingai District, Langkat County. This qualitative research aims to understand phenomena such as behavior, perception, motivation, and expectations of subjects, aligning with the study's focus on the implementation of the Madrasah Digital Report Card application at the Tsanawiyah Madrasah Hubbul Wathan Modal Bangsa. A descriptive narrative approach was employed, analyzing collected data and providing narrative interpretation to understand experiences. The results indicate that the utilization of the Madrasah Digital Report Card application at the Private MTs Hubbul Wathan Modal Bangsa is optimized by the teachers, who exhibit strong skills in operating the application. Consequently, the implementation has led to significant progress in technology use and enhanced the professional capabilities of teachers in managing students' learning outcomes.

Maternal Investments in Children: The Role of Expected Effort and Returns

Abstract We investigate the importance of subjective expectations of returns to and effort costs of the two principal investments that mothers make in newborns: breastfeeding and stimulation. We find heterogeneity across mothers in rural Pakistan in expected effort costs and expected returns for outcomes in the cognitive, socio-emotional and health domains, and that this contributes to explaining heterogeneity in investments. We find no significant differences across women in preferences for child developmental outcomes. We simulate the impact of alternative policies on investments. Our findings highlight the relevance of interventions designed to address maternal depression and reduce perinatal fatigue alongside interventions that increase perceived returns to investments.

Secure attachment priming inhibits the generalization of conditioned fear

BackgroundFear overgeneralization constitutes a susceptibility factor contributing to the development and maintenance of anxiety spectrum disorders. Extant research has demonstrated that exposure to positive and supportive social relationships attenuates fear acquisition and promotes the extinction of conditioned fear responses. However, the literature lacks investigation into the effect of secure attachment priming on inhibiting the generalization of conditioned fear.MethodsIn this study, college students were recruited via online platforms to voluntarily engage in the experimental procedures, resulting in 57 subjects whose data were deemed suitable for analysis. The experimental protocol consisted of four consecutive phases: pre-acquisition, acquisition, priming, and generalization. The priming phase consisted of two experimental conditions: secure attachment priming (experimental group) and positive emotion priming (control group). This study adopted the perceptual discrimination fear conditioning paradigm, employing subjective expectancy of shock ratings and skin conductance responses as primary assessment indices. Individual difference variables were measured using corresponding psychological measurement scales.ResultsIn terms of generalization degree, a notable divergence surfaced in the skin conductance responses across various generalization materials between the secure attachment priming group and the control group. Similarly, during generalization extinction, a significant disparity emerged in the skin conductance responses across different generalization phases between the secure attachment priming group and the control group. In addition, individual differences analyses revealed that the inhibitory effect of secure attachment priming on fear generalization was not affected by intolerance of uncertainty and attachment orientations. Conversely, slope analyses confirmed that as intolerance of uncertainty increased, the inhibitory effect of positive emotion priming on fear generalization was attenuated.ConclusionThe findings suggest that activating participants' representations of secure attachment via imagination effectively attenuates the generalization of perceptual fear at the physiological level. The inhibitory effect of secure attachment priming appears to be distinct from positive emotional modulation and remains unaffected by individual trait attachment styles. These results offer novel insights and avenues for the prevention and clinical intervention of anxiety spectrum disorders.

Insensitive Investors

ABSTRACTWe experimentally study the transmission of subjective expectations into actions. Subjects in our experiment report valuations that are far too insensitive to their expectations, relative to the prediction from a frictionless model. We propose that the insensitivity is driven by a noisy cognitive process that prevents subjects from precisely computing asset valuations. The empirical link between subjective expectations and actions becomes stronger as subjective expectations approach rational expectations. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating weak transmission into belief‐based asset pricing models. Finally, we discuss how cognitive noise can provide a microfoundation for inelastic demand in the stock market.

Active aging and health among older adults in China: a perspective based on downward intergenerational economic support.

In China, the rapid progression of population aging presents significant challenges to society and the economy, drawing widespread attention to the health conditions of older adults. While aging is often seen as a societal burden, the phenomenon of intergenerational economic support reveals the potential for older adults to continue playing an active role within their families. This study delves into how older parents' financial support to their children can reciprocally influence their own health, exploring the potential non-linear relationships involved. This research, utilizing data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, employs instrumental variable techniques and cross-sectional threshold models to examine how financial support provided by older adults to their children affects their health. It particularly highlights the varied impacts of economic support on older adults' health at different levels of support. The findings indicate that moderate intergenerational economic support significantly enhances the health of older adults, while either minimal or excessive financial support does not demonstrate the same positive effect. Additionally, subjective life expectancy plays a mediating role between intergenerational economic support and the health of older adults, further emphasizing the beneficial impact of economic support. The study underscores the importance of moderate intergenerational economic support in improving the health of older adults amidst aging challenges. Future policies and practices should consider how to encourage and optimize such support to address the challenges of an aging society, enhance the welfare of older adults, and promote healthy aging.