Sub-decadal Timescales Research Articles

Increased crevassing across accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet margins

Abstract Surface crevassing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is a large source of uncertainty in processes controlling mass loss due to a lack of comprehensive observations of their location and evolution through time. Here we use high-resolution digital elevation models to map the three-dimensional volume of crevasse fields across the Greenland Ice Sheet in 2016 and 2021. We show that, between the two years, large and significant increases in crevasse volume occurred at marine-terminating sectors with accelerating flow (up to +25.3 ± 10.1% in the southeast sector), while the change in total ice-sheet-wide crevasse volume was within measurement error (+4.3 ± 5.9%). The sectoral increases were offset by a reduction in crevasse volume in the central west sector (−14.2 ± 3.2%), particularly at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ), which exhibited slowdown and thickening over the study period. Changes in crevasse volume correlate strongly with antecedent discharge changes, indicating that the acceleration of ice flow in Greenland forces significant increases in crevassing on a timescale of less than five years. This response provides a mechanism for mass-loss-promoting feedbacks on sub-decadal timescales, including increased calving, faster flow and accelerated water transfer to the bed.

Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern

The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss.

Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation

Abstract. The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.

Formation of mineral-associated organic matter in temperate soils is primarily controlled by mineral type and modified by land use and management intensity.

Formation of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) supports the accumulation and stabilization of carbon (C) in soil, and thus, is a key factor in the global C cycle. Little is known about the interplay of mineral type, land use and management intensity in MAOM formation, especially on subdecadal time scales. We exposed mineral containers with goethite or illite, the most abundant iron oxide and phyllosilicate clay in temperate soils, for 5 years in topsoils of 150 forest and 150 grassland sites in three regions across Germany. Results show that irrespective of land use and management intensity, more C accumulated on goethite than illite (on average 0.23 ± 0.10 and 0.06 ± 0.03 mg m-2 mineral surface respectively). Carbon accumulation across regions was consistently higher in coniferous forests than in deciduous forests and grasslands. Structural equation models further showed that thinning and harvesting reduced MAOM formation in forests. Formation of MAOM in grasslands was not affected by grazing. Fertilization had opposite effects on MAOM formation, with the positive effect being mediated by enhanced plant productivity and the negative effect by reduced plant species richness. This highlights the caveat of applying fertilizers as a strategy to increase soil C stocks in temperate grasslands. Overall, we demonstrate that the rate and amount of MAOM formation in soil is primarily driven by mineral type, and can be modulated by land use and management intensity even on subdecadal time scales. Our results suggest that temperate soils dominated by oxides have a higher capacity to accumulate and store C than those dominated by phyllosilicate clays, even under circumneutral pH conditions. Therefore, adopting land use and management practices that increase C inputs into oxide-rich soils that are under their capacity to store C may offer great potential to enhance near-term soil C sequestration.

Lagrangian Overturning Pathways in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

Abstract The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at subpolar latitudes is dominated by water mass transformation in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA). However, the distribution of this overturning across the individual circulation pathways of both the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the Nordic seas overflows remains poorly understood. Here, we introduce a novel Lagrangian measure of the density-space overturning to quantify the principal pathways of the time-mean overturning circulation within an eddy-permitting ocean model hindcast. By tracing the trajectories of water parcels initialized from the northward inflows across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) East section, we show that water mass transformation along the pathways of the eastern SPG accounts for 55% of the mean strength of the eastern subpolar AMOC. Water parcels following the dominant SPG pathway, sourced from the Subarctic Front, form upper North Atlantic Deep Water by circulating horizontally across sloping isopycnals in less than 2 years. A slower SPG route, entrained by overflow waters south of the Iceland–Faroes Ridge, is a crucial conduit for subtropical-origin water masses to penetrate the deep ocean on subdecadal time scales. On reproducing our findings using time-averaged velocity and hydrographic fields, we further show that the Nordic seas overflow pathways integrate multiple decades of water mass transformation before returning across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. We propose that the strong disparity between the overturning time scales of the SPG (interannual) and the Nordic seas overflows (multidecadal) has important implications for the propagation of density anomalies within the eastern SPNA and hence the sources of AMOC variability.

Atlantic impacts on subdecadal warming over the tropical Pacific in the 2000s

IntroductionA subdecadal (i.e. , three-year running mean) variation over the tropical Pacific is very distinctively observed in the 2000s.Results and methodsHere, we have demonstrated that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic contribute to forming high ocean-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific in the early 2000s by performing partial data assimilation of a global climate model. Low SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic change the Walker circulation, and the associated weakening of the Pacific trade winds raises the equatorial SST on subdecadal timescales. At the same time, a high SST anomaly is also generated in the off-equatorial North Pacific through deepening of the upper ocean thermocline due to an accompanying anticyclonic surface wind anomaly aloft. While the subtropical North Atlantic SSTs may help the subdecadal warming in the equatorial Pacific, the resultant SST anomalies show a one-year delay in the phase transition and are modestly accompanied by ocean thermocline deepening.DiscussionIt roughly follows the IMRaD format.

Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations

Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.

Frequency of different types of El Niño events under global warming

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant natural climate pattern that influences the global climate on subdecadal timescales. Thus, a better understanding of the impacts of global warming on the characteristics of ENSO events offers large socioeconomic benefits. Changes in the frequency of the eastern Pacific (EP), central Pacific (CP) and total El Niño events are analysed in the future period (2051–2100) under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (i.e., SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) compared to the historical period (1951–2000) using outputs of eight models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Types of El Niño events are diagnosed based on pattern correlation coefficients (PCCs) between monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on the ensemble of models, the number of total El Niño events decreases by 26 and 16% under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the future compared to the historical period. A smaller decrease in the number of total El Niño events under the faster warming rate of the SSP5‐8.5 scenario suggests that the response of ENSO dynamics to global warming is not linear. Analysis of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5) dataset during the period 1951–2020 indicates that the ratio of the number of CP El Niño to EP El Niño has substantially increased over the past two decades. Nevertheless, under both the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios in the future period, the ratio of the number of CP El Niño to EP El Niño does not change considerably compared to that in the historical period. This suggests that the recent increase in the frequency of CP El Niño could be a result of multidecadal variations rather than anthropogenic global warming.

From Phase Transition to Interdecadal Changes of ENSO, Altered by the Lower Stratospheric Ozone

This paper shows more evidence for the existing spatial–temporal synchronization of the air surface temperature and pressure within the lower stratospheric ozone, which is unevenly distributed over the globe. The focus of this study is put on the region of formation and manifestation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Statistical analysis of data (covering the period 1900–2019) displays a well pronounced covariance of ozone at 70 hPa with (i) Nino3.4 index, (ii) air surface temperature, and (iii) sea level pressure, in each grid-point with spatial resolution of 5° in latitude and longitude. The ozone impact could be found at different time scales—from interannual (altering the ENSO phase transition) to interdecadal. Moreover, the centers of action of ozone on the sea level temperature and pressure are positioned at different places, depending on the temporal scale of variability—from the tropical Central Pacific—at interannual and interdecadal, to extratropics—at subdecadal time scales. We show also that positive ozone anomalies at 70 hPa trigger a cooling of the sea surface, with a delay of 9 record’s time intervals. The ozone depletion, on the other side, is followed by a sea level warming with a delay of 1–2 record’s time intervals.

Rapid Freshening of Iceland Scotland Overflow Water Driven by Entrainment of a Major Upper Ocean Salinity Anomaly

AbstractNewly available mooring observations from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) show an abrupt decline in Iceland Scotland Overflow (ISOW) salinity from 2017 to 2018 summer. Previous declines in ISOW salinity of similar magnitude have largely been attributed to changes in convectively formed deep waters in the Nordic Seas on decadal time scales. We show that this rapid decline in salinity was driven by entrainment of a major upper ocean salinity anomaly in the Iceland Basin. This is shown by tracking the propagation of the upper ocean anomaly into ISOW using a combination of mooring and Argo observations, surface drifter trajectories, and numerical model results. A 2‐year total transit time from the upper ocean into the ISOW layer was found. The results show that entrainment allows for rapid modification of ISOW, and consequently the lower limb of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, on subdecadal timescales.

The first Holocene varve chronology for the UK: Based on the integration of varve counting, radiocarbon dating and tephrostratigraphy from Diss Mere (UK)

Abstract The British Isles lack long high-precision and independent chronologies to reconstruct Holocene environmental and climatic conditions at sub-decadal timescales. This paper reports the first Holocene varved chronology for the lacustrine sediment record of Diss Mere in the UK. The record of Diss Mere is 15 m long, and shows 4.2 m of finely-laminated sediments, which are present between ca. 9 and 13 m of core depth. The microfacies analysis identified three major seasonal patterns of deposition (microfacies 1–3), which corroborate the annual nature of sedimentation throughout the whole interval. The sediments are diatomaceous organic and carbonate varves with an average thickness of 0.45 mm. Microfacies 1 consists of a pale layer of authigenic calcite crystals and diatom frustules, and a dark layer composed of a planktonic diatoms and filaments of organic matter. Microfacies 2 is similar but includes a mono-specific diatom bloom layer preceding the calcite layer. Microfacies 3 consists of varves with an occasional very thin calcite layer and mono-specific diatom blooms in spring and autumn. A total of 8473 varves were counted with maximum counting error of up to 40 varves by the bottom of the varved sequence. To tie the resulting floating varve chronology to the IntCal20 radiocarbon timescale, we used a Bayesian Deposition model (P_Sequence with outlier detection) on all available chronological data from the core. The data included five radiocarbon dates, two known tephra layers (Glen Garry and OMH-185) with calendar ages based on Bayesian modelling of sequences of radiocarbon ages, and the relative varve counts between dated points. The resulting age-depth model (DISSV-2020) dates the varved sequence between ca. 2100 and 10,300 cal BP and age uncertainties are decadal in scale. The immediate implication of this new UK Holocene chronology is the updated precise ages for the Glen Garry tephra at 2073 ± 39 cal BP and the OMH-185 tephra at 2617 ± 29 cal BP. DISSV-2020 will also enable Holocene research at high time resolution and comparisons to other annually-resolved records on absolute timescales supporting climatic investigations at the regional level.

East Asian monsoon changes early in the last deglaciation and insights into the interpretation of oxygen isotope changes in the Chinese stalagmite record

Stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records have enhanced our understanding of the history of the East Asian monsoon. However, abrupt changes in the monsoon are not constrained well enough to address certain issues and there are still unknowns in the interpretation of cave δ18O records. Here we present a new high-resolution stalagmite record from Shima Cave, central China. Anchored with 24 230Th/U dates, our sample grew from 19.7 to 17.8 ka and from 16.3 to 13.3 ka, covering much of the early portion of the last deglaciation with a temporal resolution of 7 years. Using this record and other available Asian δ18O records, we test model predictions for shifts in δ18O in Asian caves and further investigate monsoon variations on centennial to decadal timescales during the early portion of the last termination. We conclude the following regarding the interpretation of δ18O in Chinese caves. Two mechanisms affect δ18O: changes in the fraction of monsoon rainfall in annual totals (the Wang-Cheng mechanism) and changes in the amount of rainout between tropical sources and cave sites (the Yuan mechanism). The former is caused by changes in the seasonal migration of the sub-tropical jet and likely has a smaller effect on cave δ18O than the latter. The latter involves changes in rainout from both the Pacific and the Indian Ocean sources. Precisely how that change in rainout is partitioned between sources and cave sites is not fully understood; however, it is clear that some of the change takes place in China; i.e. it is not restricted to upstream sites. Rough calculations for our site suggest that mean annual rainfall may have been two-thirds of modern values at the time of the highest δ18O values during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) (16.1 ka) and one fifth again higher than modern values during the Bølling (14.3 ka). Within HS1, consistent with observations from other localities, Chinese cave records exhibit a twofold structure. Within the phases, we observe a truly remarkable relationship between the North Atlantic ice rafted debris record and the Hulu-Shima Cave record, where events ranging from multi-centennial to sub-decadal timescale can be related across Eurasia. The origin of this two-phased structure may relate to different sources and extent of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic as well as the extent of sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Rapid Vegetation Succession and Coupled Permafrost Dynamics in Arctic Thaw Ponds in the Siberian Lowland Tundra

AbstractThermokarst features, such as thaw ponds, are hotspots for methane emissions in warming lowland tundra. Presently we lack quantitative knowledge on the formation rates of thaw ponds and subsequent vegetation succession, necessary to determine their net contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. This study sets out to identify development trajectories and formation rates of small‐scale (<100 m2), shallow arctic thaw ponds in north‐eastern Siberia. We selected 40 ponds of different age classes based on a time‐series of satellite images and measured vegetation composition, microtopography, water table, and thaw depth in the field and measured age of colonizing shrubs in thaw ponds using dendrochronology. We found that young ponds are characterized by dead shrubs, while older ponds show rapid terrestrialization through colonization by sedges and Sphagnum moss. While dead shrubs and open water are associated with permafrost degradation (lower surface elevation, larger thaw depth), sites with sedge and in particular Sphagnum display indications of permafrost recovery. Recruitment of Betula nana on Sphagnum carpets in ponds indicates a potential recovery toward shrub‐dominated vegetation, although it remains unclear if and on what timescale this occurs. Our results suggest that thaw ponds display potentially cyclic vegetation succession associated with permafrost degradation and recovery. Pond formation and initial colonization by sedges can occur on subdecadal timescales, suggesting rapid degradation and initial recovery of permafrost. The rates of formation and recovery of small‐scale, shallow thaw ponds have implications for the greening/browning dynamics and carbon balance of this ecosystem.

Empirical Prediction of Short‐Term Annual Global Temperature Variability

AbstractGlobal mean surface air temperature (Tglobal) variability on subdecadal timescales can be of substantial magnitude relative to the long‐term global warming signal, and such variability has been associated with considerable environmental and societal impacts. Therefore, probabilistic foreknowledge of short‐termTglobalevolution may be of value for anticipating and mitigating some course‐resolution climate‐related risks. Here we present a simple, empirically based methodology that utilizes only global spatial patterns of annual mean surface air temperature anomalies to predict subsequent annualTglobalanomalies via partial least squares regression. The method's skill is primarily achieved via information on the state of long‐term global warming as well as the state and recent evolution of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. We test the out‐of‐sample skill of the methodology using cross validation and in a forecast mode where statistical predictions are made precisely as they would have been if the procedure had been operationalized starting in the year 2000. The average forecast errors for lead times of 1 to 4 years are smaller than naïve benchmarks on average, and they perform favorably relative to most dynamical Global Climate Models retrospectively initialized to the observed state of the climate system. Thus, this method can be used as a computationally efficient benchmark for dynamical model forecast systems.

Holocene sedimentation in a blue hole surrounded by carbonate tidal flats in The Bahamas: Autogenic versus allogenic processes

The sediment in North Atlantic blue holes preserves paleoclimate records. However, accurate paleoclimate reconstructions require an improved understanding of allogenic versus autogenic processes controlling blue hole sedimentation. Here we provide a detailed case study of the Holocene stratigraphy within Freshwater River Blue Hole, which is currently surrounded by carbonate tidal flats in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island). During the Holocene, concomitant coastal aquifer elevation and relative sea-level rise controlled internal blue hole depositional environments. The general Holocene facies succession observed is: (i) basal detrital and freshwater peat, (ii) palustrine to lacustrine marl, (iii) algal sapropel, and finally (iv) bedded carbonate mud. During the middle Holocene when groundwater levels were lower, small changes in accommodation space that were inherited from the bedrock surface below (<1 m) were able to promote significant lateral facies changes. Multiple cores are needed to characterize these lateral facies changes. Hydrographic characteristics of the coastal aquifer (e.g., vertical position, stratification, salinity) relative to the blue hole benthos exert a fundamental control on (a) benthic flora and meiofauna (e.g., charophytes, ostracodes, foraminifera, gastropods) and (b) organic matter production and preservation from pelagic productivity. Over the last 5000 years, water column stratification in Freshwater River Blue Hole was interrupted on millennial to sub-decadal timescales , which are potentially linked to changing aquifer recharge and rainfall. Lastly, historical intense hurricanes passing closely to the west of the site may have promoted deposition of coarse beds at the site. However, the lack of carbonate tidal flat microfaunal remains (foraminifera: Peneroplis) within these coarse intervals indicates that Freshwater River Blue Hole does not preserve a reliable record of hurricane-induced overwash deposition from the carbonate tidal flats during the last 2300 years.

Latitudinal variation in growth rates and limited movement patterns revealed for east-coast snapper Chrysophrys auratus through long-term cooperative-tagging programs

Understanding the spatial ecology of exploited fish stocks is key to their sustainable management. Here we used a long-term cooperative tag and recapture dataset that encompassed the entire distribution of the stock to examine patterns of movement and growth of Chrysophrys auratus (Sparidae) along eastern Australia. More than 24000 individuals were tagged, with 2117 being recaptured with information suitable for analysis of movements and 1440 with information suitable for analysis of growth rates. Individuals ranged in size between 120- and 620-mm fork length at tagging and were at liberty for up to 5.9 years before being recaptured. Results indicated population characteristics of partial migration, whereby the majority (~71%) of fish did not move any detectable distance and a small proportion (~4%) moved between 100 and 1000km. Specific growth rates were significantly affected by the latitude at tagging, with higher growth rates at lower (more northern) latitudes. Our findings suggest that Australian east-coast C. auratus are mainly resident on a subdecadal time scale and at reasonably small spatial scales. When considered with information on latitudinal variation in growth and reproductive biology, localised recruitment and a history of localised fishery declines, assessment and management at local scales may be appropriate.

Litter quantity, litter chemistry, and soil texture control changes in soil organic carbon fractions under bioenergy cropping systems of the North Central U.S.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a critical component of the overall sustainability of bioenergy cropping systems. Predicting the influence of cropping systems on SOC under diverse scenarios requires a mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes driving SOC accumulation and loss. We used a density fractionation technique to isolate three SOC fractions that are conceptualized to vary in SOC protection from decomposition. The free light fraction (FLF) is particulate SOC that is present in the inter-aggregate soil matrix, the occluded light fraction (OLF) is contained within aggregates, and the heavy fraction (HF) is associated with minerals. We evaluated surface (0 to 10 cm depth) SOC fraction changes from baseline conditions 5 years after biofuel cropping system establishment at two temperate sites with contrasting soil textures. The biofuel cropping systems included no-till maize, switchgrass, prairie, and hybrid poplar. The FLF concentration (g fraction C g bulk soil−1) did not change significantly from baseline levels under any of the cropping systems at either site after 5 years. Except for poplar, OLF concentrations were reduced in all systems at the site with coarse-textured soils and maintained at the site with fine-textured soils. In poplar systems, OLF concentrations were maintained on coarse-textured soils and increased on fine-textured soils. The HF concentrations also increased under poplar on the coarse-textured soil. A structural equation model indicated that OLF concentrations increased with lower litter C:N, and HF concentrations increased with greater litter quantity and lower litter C:N mass ratios. C:N increased over time within all SOC fractions, suggesting that all pools are sensitive to land-use change on sub-decadal timescales. In agreement with modern SOC theory, our empirical results indicate that increasing litter input quantity and promoting plant species with low C:N litter may improve SOC storage in aggregate and mineral-associated soil fractions.

Geomorphic complexity and sensitivity in channels to fire and floods in mountain catchments

Fires and floods are important drivers of geomorphic change. While the hydrologic and geomorphic effects of fires have been studied at the hillslope scale, we have much more limited data on post-fire runoff, channel changes, and inferred or measured sediment storage and delivery at larger scales. In this study we intensively documented channel changes over four years in two very similar ∼15 km2 catchments in the northern Colorado Front Range, Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch, that were burned primarily at high and moderate severity in June 2012. Ten and 11 cross sections and longitudinal profiles along the lower channel network were repeatedly surveyed in Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch, respectively. Summer thunderstorms generally caused deposition in the valley bottoms while incision resulted from the intervening baseflows and spring snowmelt, but a very high intensity summer thunderstorm in Skin Gulch just one week after burning caused much more deposition than in Hill Gulch. Fifteen months after burning both watersheds experienced an exceptional, long-duration flood resulting from a multi-day rainstorm with a several hundred year recurrence interval. This removed nearly all of the deposited post-fire sediment along with some of the older valley bottom deposits. The expansion and coarsening of the channel has greatly decreased the geomorphic sensitivity of both watersheds to future floods, and eliminated the more typical and persistent post-fire depositional signature. The channel changes in Skin Gulch after the fire and long-duration flood were much greater than in Hill Gulch, and this can be attributed to the much greater sediment deposition in Skin Gulch shortly after the fire, reduced geomorphic sensitivity in Hill Gulch resulting from a large erosional flood in 1976, and the spatial distribution of burn severity and storm rainfalls leading to lower peak flows in Hill Gulch. These results suggest that fires in the Rocky Mountains can trigger significant and dynamic hillslope and channel changes over sub-decadal timescales, but unusually long or intense rainstorms can cause larger and more persistent changes regardless of whether a catchment has recently burned.

Coupled North Atlantic Subdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Models

AbstractThe interaction between the atmosphere, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Ocean circulation on subdecadal time scale is analyzed in a subset of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. From preindustrial control runs of at least 500‐year length, we derive anomaly patterns in the atmospheric and ocean circulation and of air‐sea heat exchange. All models simulate a distinct dipolar oceanic overturning anomaly at the subdecadal time scale, with centers at 30°N and 55°N. The dipolar overturning anomaly goes along with marked anomalies in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and gyre circulation. Lag‐regression analyses demonstrate, with relatively small ensemble spread, how the atmosphere and the ocean circulation interact. The dipolar anomalies in the overturning are forced by North Atlantic Oscillation‐related wind stress curl anomalies. Anomalous surface heat fluxes in concert with anomalous vertical motions drive a meridional dipolar heat content anomaly in the upper ocean, and it is this dipolar heat content anomaly which carries the coupled system from one phase of the subdecadal cycle to the other by reversing the tendencies in the overturning circulation. The coupled subdecadal variability derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models is characterized by three elements: a wind‐driven part steering the dipolar overturning anomaly, surface heat flux anomalies that support a heat buildup in the subpolar gyre region, and the heat storage memory which is instrumental in the phase reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Branched GDGT variability in sediments and soils from catchments with marked temperature seasonality

The distributions of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in sediments are used as a proxy measurement to infer changes in past mean annual air temperatures (MAT). When applied to high resolution sedimentary sequences, measurement of brGDGT distributions is employed to reconstruct MAT at subdecadal time scales. In addition, brGDGT proxy estimates are also sometimes purported to be seasonally biased in environments where annual brGDGT production may not be constant during a seasonal cycle. The main aim of this study was to assess the occurrence of seasonality in the production and distribution of brGDGTs and the seasonality bias of the derived temperature proxy. For this purpose, we examined brGDGT distributions and brGDGT-derived MAT estimates in surface soils and settling/suspended particulate matter over one year, from two sites located in the same latitude but at different altitudes, in the Catalan Pyrenees, as well as at one site in southern Norway. These locations have marked seasonal temperature cycles, which were expected to maximize the possibility of detecting any seasonal bias in the production and compositions of brGDGTs. The results show that brGDGT abundance is heterogeneous and increases with soil humidity. The brGDGT distributions and some of the brGDGT-derived proxy measurements in soils are relatively stable throughout the year and do not change significantly in the suspended particulate matter in the river or settling particulate matter in traps. Our study shows that the impact of the seasonality of temperature on brGDGT distribution was absent in the soils studied, regardless of altitude or latitude on a catchment/regional scale. As soils are likely to contain a brGDGT signature which is representative of average environmental conditions in the catchment at least over decades, brGDGT proxy reconstructions derived from soil sources are more suitable to infer variability in environmental parameters over the same timescales (i.e. decades or longer). On shorter timescales (i.e. annual), sediment downcore variability in brGDGTs is likely to be related to changes derived from in situ production and sediment sources.