Sub-national Level In India Research Articles

The Politics of Experimentation: Political Competition and Randomized Controlled Trials

This paper provides an analysis of how political factors affect the incidence of the evaluation of public policies, with a focus on Randomized Control Trial (RCT) experiments in international development. We argue that political environments where incumbents face greater electoral competition and smaller ruling margins are more likely to host RCT experiments. Using various data sources for the incidence of RCTs both at the cross-country level and at the sub-national level in India, we find that RCTs are more likely to occur in politically competitive jurisdictions. We employ fixed effects regressions using various estimators and an instrumental variable strategy that exploits an electoral reform in India which limited the entry of independent candidates and exogenously affected the degree of electoral competition in state-level politics. The effect seems concentrated on RCTs that have the government as a partner, suggesting that political competition has an important demand-side effect on the incidence of RCTs.

Concerns of developing countries and the sustainable development goals: case for India

ABSTRACT The sustainable development goals (SDGs) were result of extensive stakeholder participation and global consensus. Despite large promises, there is an increasing concern among the member states whether SDGs address real problems of nations, particularly the developing world. This study discusses key issues raised by developing countries with respect to the SDGs. Using opinion of experts on SDGs regarding its implications and future, a case study for India is presented. The study with its findings and policy recommendations intend to benefit SDG implementation efforts and planning at the national and sub-national level in India and other developing countries, helping them redesign and investigate their national SDG implementation strategies on similar lines as India to improve its reach and effectiveness.

Determinants of public–private partnerships: a state-level empirical analysis of India

PurposeIn view of the significance of public–private partnerships (PPPs) as a tool for bridging infrastructure deficits, it becomes imperative to study its determinants. The objective of this paper is to empirically study the determinants of PPPs in India at a subnational level, in terms of both number and value of PPP projects.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the determinants of value and number of Indian PPPs at a subnational level for the period 2008–2017. The determinants are analyzed using two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and negative binomial regression. Select correlates examined are market size, fiscal compulsions, institutional quality, financial sector development and physical infrastructure.FindingsThe results indicate that fiscal compulsions, financial sector development and physical infrastructure influence PPPs favorably, whereas low institutional quality impacts PPPs adversely. A pertinent finding of this study is that the past value of PPPs lowers the current year's PPP value.Practical implicationsThe findings are expected to assist subnational governments and policymakers in formulating policies that attract more PPP projects (in terms of both value and number).Originality/valueThis is the first study that analyzes the determinants of infrastructure PPPs at a subnational level in India.

Assessing public expenditure efficiency at the subnational level in India: Does governance matter?

The issue of public expenditure efficiency has drawn the attention of both policymakers and researchers globally. The paper attempts to measure the efficiency of government expenditures on the social sector, especially health and education, among the major Indian states using various data envelopment analysis. The paper also attempts to understand what drives public expenditure efficiency. The results suggest that there is a wide variation in the efficiency of public spending as well as scope for resource‐saving at the subnational level in India. It finds that states are spending their resources more efficiently on education than on health and the overall social sector spending. It also finds that quality of governance, economic growth, and mothers' schooling affects the efficiency of education, health, and social sector with governance to have a larger effect compared to other factors. Overall, the study suggests that improving governance could yield better outcomes from public expenditure.Highlights The paper looks at understanding the issue of public expenditure of efficiency of education, health, and overall social sector over the 15 year period since the year 2000, broadly covering the millennium development goal period at the subnational level in India. By using data envelopment analysis, the study derives the efficiency scores for major states for three‐time periods for input‐oriented, output‐oriented, and nonoriented conditions. The results broadly suggest that there is wide divergence in terms of efficiency levels across the states and also finds some spatial patterns. States in Western region appear to be more efficient than compared to other regions. Overall, the states appear to be spending efficiently on the education compared to health. In terms of what explains such divergences in efficiency levels, the study looks at broader determinants‐overall governance‐with conditional variables such as level of incomes and mothers' schooling. The econometric results suggest that it is the level of governance that affects the efficiency levels at the subnational level in India.

"Understanding growth convergence in India (1981-2010): Looking beyond the usual suspects".

The literature on growth convergence has focused to a great extent on the role of initial incomes as a primary determinant of long-term growth outcomes. Expanded versions of growth models have used other explanators to unpack the growth process. In this paper we add to the literature in two significant ways: (a) we use socioeconomic variables that are sometimes overlooked in explaining growth (such as, political stability and political alliance, social heterogeneity, and demographic distribution), and (b) we demonstrate that earlier analyses may be overlooking the problem of normality and endogeneity in regression models (and we provide alternate methods like instrumental variable and distribution dynamics to control for these). In this paper we analyze the per capita income growth at the subnational level in India for the period 1981–82 to 2010–11 using an expanded growth framework. We find that initial incomes, the ratio of working age group to total population, political stability and alliance, and the extent of development expenditure play a positive and significant role in predicting growth. We also find that, contrary to popular belief, the presence of marginalized groups—namely Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes—have not been a hindrance to growth of per capita incomes in states. Our findings on the influence of social institutions may have significant implications for a public policy of affirmative action in India. The results on the impact of development expenditure on growth is also important for states seeking to increase their growth rates through policy intervention.

Why regional parties succeed at the sub-national level in India

Existing scholarship in comparative politics has either focused on regionalism or on political and economic decentralisation to explain the growth of regional parties. Using quantitative evidence from India, I show that a hitherto ignored explanation, the level of regional branch autonomy within polity-wide parties, also has a significant impact on the growth of regional parties. When regional branches of polity-wide parties have autonomy, regional parties find it difficult to grow. In contrast, regional parties benefit electorally when regional branches of polity-wide parties are less autonomous. To further account for endogeneity between regional party growth and regional branch autonomy, I use quantitative and qualitative evidence to show that the growth of regional parties is not positively correlated with more regional branch autonomy.

Prevalence and factors associated with complementary feeding practices among children aged 6\u201323\u2009months in India: a regional analysis

BackgroundInappropriate complementary feeding practices significantly contribute to undernutrition among children under 2 years of age in India. However, there is limited up-to-date evidence on the prevalence and factors associated with complementary feeding practices to guide policy actions at the subnational level in India. We investigated the regional prevalence and factors associated with complementary feeding practices in India.MethodsThis study used a sample of 69,464 maternal responses from the 2015–16 National Family Health Survey in India. The prevalence of complementary feeding indicators was estimated using data for each administrative region, namely: North (n = 8469), South (n = 12,828), East (n = 18,141), West (n = 8940), North-East (n = 2422) and Central (n = 18,664). Factors associated with complementary feeding by region in India were investigated using logistic regression Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Models (GLLAMM) with a logit link and binomial family that adjusted for clustering and sampling weights.ResultsThe study showed a wide variation in the prevalence of introduction of solid, semi-solid or soft foods (complementary foods) among infants aged 6–8 months in regional India; highest in the South (61%) and lowest in the Central and Northern regions (38%). Similarly, minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was highest in the South (33%) and lowest in the Central region (12%). Both minimum meal frequency (MMF) and minimum acceptable diet (MAD) varied substantially across the regions. The factors associated with complementary feeding practices also differed across Indian regions. Significant modifiable factors associated with complementary feeding practices included higher household wealth index for the introduction of complementary foods in the North and Eastern India; higher maternal education for MMF and MDD in the North and Central regions; and frequent antenatal care visits (≥4 visits) for all indicators but for different regions.ConclusionOur study indicates that there are wide differences in regional prevalence and factors associated with complementary feeding practices in India. The improvement of complementary feeding practices in India would require national and sub-national efforts that target vulnerable mothers, including those with no education and limited health service contacts.

National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000–15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals

SummaryBackgroundIndia had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000–15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets.MethodsWe used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1–59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1–59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels.FindingsIn 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279–0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168–0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116–0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1–59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target.InterpretationEfforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000–15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Decision tool for climate disasters and infectious disease at sub-national level in India: Ensuring a paradigm shift in health planning from prevalence to vulnerability

Climate change is considered as a distal determinant of public health which is increasing in importance. India, as an example, has a national action plan for climate change and human health. Sub-national (State) plans for climate change also exist, taking into account the health sector. The State of Bihar was selected for assessment because of its vulnerability (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). A vulnerability framework was constructed by discussions with national and local-level specialists followed by weightage given by working in the field of climate and health with international exposure. A total of 15 districts were at a high risk of floods and these were considered for detailed analysis using the methodology for human development index as well as other examples in the field of environment. Climate health vulnerability index score were correlated with actual prevalence of flood mortality data of these 15 districts in year 2016. It was found that climate health vulnerability and flood mortality had negative low correlation of -0.25. In contrast for vector-borne diseases (VBD), both pre-flood and post-flood, the morbidity data had a correlation of 0.24 and 0.11 respectively. Possible reasons for a negative correlation for mortality could involve better preparedness by disaster district authorities. However, outbreak control is within the ambit of the health sector where a possible reason for decreased correlation coefficient in the post-flood period could be due to the impact on health facilities itself, thus leading to reduced reporting.

Measuring ease of doing business in India’s sub-national economies: a novel index

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by introducing a novel index that measures ease of doing business (EDB) at the sub-national level. The authors provide a comprehensive assessment of both de jure and de facto business conditions in 21 sub-national economies of India, with the help of a holistic framework that encompasses indicators capturing Attractiveness to Investors, Business Friendliness and Competitive Policies (ABC), the three broad environments that constitute the EDB–ABC index.Design/methodology/approachThe authors’ index EDB–ABC index is constructed using 81 indicators. The index values reported are standardized scores and the framework is applied to 21 Indian sub-national economies. The bottom-up approach takes into account the various operational issues that firms face at the ground level, with the emphasis being on de facto issues. A unique feature of the index is its emphasis on collecting extensive survey data at the sub-national level, given that several constraints that businesses face lie under the purview of the sub-national governments. It also combines publicly available macroeconomic data through formal statistical publications.FindingsThe findings suggest a positive association between the proposed EDB–ABC index and competitiveness of as well as investments into Indian sub-national economies. In terms of explanatory power, the authors find that indicators capturing attractiveness to investors and business friendliness which are representative of de facto implementation issues at the sub-national matter more than de jure competitive policies. It is also striking that the results are in stark contrast to the existing doing business studies highlighting the importance of the comprehensiveness of the index.Originality/valueEasing the impediments to doing business is a pre-requisite to enhance both domestic as well as foreign investments. Existing indicators on doing business provide an incomplete picture about the prevailing business conditions as the basis for such rankings are de jure regulations and not de facto. The authors depart from this tradition by dealing with both de jure and de facto business conditions using a combination of primary and secondary data at the sub-national level in India.

Regression Analysis to Identify Factors Associated with Urinary Iodine Concentration at the Sub-National Level in India, Ghana, and Senegal.

Single and multiple variable regression analyses were conducted using data from stratified, cluster sample design, iodine surveys in India, Ghana, and Senegal to identify factors associated with urinary iodine concentration (UIC) among women of reproductive age (WRA) at the national and sub-national level. Subjects were survey household respondents, typically WRA. For all three countries, UIC was significantly different (p < 0.05) by household salt iodine category. Other significant differences were by strata and by household vulnerability to poverty in India and Ghana. In multiple variable regression analysis, UIC was significantly associated with strata and household salt iodine category in India and Ghana (p < 0.001). Estimated UIC was 1.6 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.3, 2.0) times higher (India) and 1.4 (95% CI 1.2, 1.6) times higher (Ghana) among WRA from households using adequately iodised salt than among WRA from households using non-iodised salt. Other significant associations with UIC were found in India, with having heard of iodine deficiency (1.2 times higher; CI 1.1, 1.3; p < 0.001) and having improved dietary diversity (1.1 times higher, CI 1.0, 1.2; p = 0.015); and in Ghana, with the level of tomato paste consumption the previous week (p = 0.029) (UIC for highest consumption level was 1.2 times lowest level; CI 1.1, 1.4). No significant associations were found in Senegal. Sub-national data on iodine status are required to assess equity of access to optimal iodine intake and to develop strategic responses as needed.

Federalism, Fiscal Space, and Public Investment Spending: Do Fiscal Rules Impose Hard Budget Constraints?

The core emphasis of rules-based fiscal legislation at the subnational level in India is to achieve debt sustainability through a numerical ceiling on borrowing and the use of borrowed resources for public capital investment by phasing out revenue deficits. Using the Arellano Bond Panel estimation, this paper examines whether the application of fiscal rules has resulted in an increase in the fiscal space for public capital investment spending in major Indian states. This analysis shows that by controlling other factors, there is a negative relationship between fiscal rules and public capital investment spending at the state level during the rules-based fiscal regime.

Federalism, Fiscal Space, and Public Investment Spending: Do Fiscal Rules Impose Hard Budget Constraints?

The core emphasis of rules-based fiscal legislation at the subnational level in India is to achieve debt sustainability through a numerical ceiling on borrowing and the use of borrowed resources for public capital investment by phasing out revenue deficits. Using the Arellano Bond Panel estimation, this chapter examines whether the application of fiscal rules has resulted in an increase in the fiscal space for public capital investment spending in major Indian states. This analysis shows that by controlling other factors, there is a negative relationship between fiscal rules and public capital investment spending at the state level during the rules-based fiscal regime.

Growth Convergence and Regional Inequality in India (1981–2012)

There has been significant research effort to study the impact of liberalisation on growth and distribution in India. Using per capita income (PCI) data for the period 1981–82 to 2012–13 (28 regions for the entire period and 31 regions for 2001–2 to 2012–13) at the sub-national level in India we examine the claims of divergence and stratification (twin peak formation) as has been claimed in some of the recent literature. We confirm that there is divergence of PCI. We present the first set of tests of multimodality in the Indian convergence debate using Silverman (J R Stat Soc 43:97–99, 1981; Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Monographs on statistics and applied probability, Chapman & Hall, London, 1986) procedure. Weighted kernel density plots and multi-modal tests reveal that there is emergence of “multi-modes” in the distribution of PCI, not just twin modes. The spatial pattern of growth reflects an area of stagnation in the eastern-central belt—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa, and in the north eastern part of India—Assam and Manipur and a decline in Mizoram. Sikkim demonstrates fastest growth, whereas Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu (among the big states) and Himachal Pradesh, and Andaman and Nicobar (small state and Union Territories) maintained their position. Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh (among the southern states), Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland (among the north eastern states) along with Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, moved up in the growth ladder. The continuation of growth stagnation in most of the BIMARU states poses a challenge to received theories of growth convergence and raises developmental concerns that the increased play of market forces in the Indian economy have not been able to overcome.

Estimating disease burden of maternal syphilis and associated adverse pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia in 2012

ObjectiveTo estimate maternal syphilis and its associated adverse pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. MethodsAn online estimation tool was used to generate point estimates and uncertainty ranges of maternal syphilis and adverse pregnancy outcomes due to mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). The most recent data (2010–2012) on antenatal care coverage, syphilis seroprevalence, and syphilis screening and treatment coverage at the subnational level in India, Nigeria, and Zambia were used to estimate disease burden for 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for three screening and treatment scenarios (current coverages, current coverages minus 20%, and ideal coverages consistent with WHO targets for eliminating MTCT of syphilis). ResultsA total of 103 960, 74 798, and 9072 pregnant women with probable active syphilis were estimated to occur in India, Nigeria, and Zambia, resulting in 53 187, 37 045, and 2973 adverse outcomes, respectively; approximately 1.6%, 4.8%, and 37.0% of these were averted under the current service coverages in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. The disease burden varied significantly in its subnational distribution within India and Nigeria, but was distributed evenly across Zambia. ConclusionsThe obtained results suggest an ongoing, unaverted high burden of maternal syphilis and associated adverse outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. Screening and treatment for syphilis must be scaled-up significantly in these countries to achieve elimination of MTCT of syphilis.

Social Expenditures at Sub-National Level: An Experience from Indian State of Odisha

The composition and trends of social expenditures at sub-national level in India has been examined using the secondary data from 1987-88 to 2013-14 of the state of Odisha. The composition shows (1) the insignificant share of productive social expenditures, (2) significant share of education relegating the role of health care and (3) higher priority of transfer payments relative to the level of employment and health. The comparative analysis of the composition between pre and post-restructuring period indicates the shifting of priority from education and health towards transfer payments in the later than the former period. The level of social expenditures has been declined over the time period leading to excessive contraction of educational expenditures. The decline in the level of social expenditures is attributed to the use of implicit loopholes of the efficiency criteria used for the devolution of federal transfers. For the economic development of the state increased level of social expenditures, higher priority of education and health and reform in the efficiency criteria used for the devolution of transfers are of crucial need of the hour.

Inequality in Carbon Emissions at Sub-National Level in India

In this study using standard measures of inequality such as Gini coefficient, Kakwani Index, coefficient of variation and Theil Index we examine inequality in carbon emissions for the years 2000-09 at the sub-national level covering 17 major states of India. At the outset, in order to estimate sub-national inequality in carbon emissions we also estimated total carbon emissions for each state for the above years using IPCC Reference Approach. Our findings showed that per capita carbon emissions were highest in the low income resource rich states and lower in the high income more developed states. The inequality in carbon emissions as demonstrated by Gini coefficients has increased over the years indicating that it is the poorer states which have to bear the burden.

Fiscal Sustainability in India at State Level

The consolidated measures of budget deficits and public debt levels for India's central and state governments are well above the average of other emerging economies. In contrast to previous studies of India's budgetary position, which focus on the central government's budget, this paper examines fiscal sustainability at the level of India's states, which differ widely in terms of their level of economic development. After comparing fiscal performance in the states, key formulae for examining public debt sustainability at the sub-national level in India are derived. These formulae are then applied, firstly to identify states where public debt has stabilized as a percent of Gross State Domestic Product, and secondly to gauge the size of the primary budget balances needed to achieve a 25% public debt to GSDP ratio within three, five and ten year horizons.

All Foreign Direct Investment Is Local: Indian Provincial Politics and the Attraction of FDI

This study focuses on the differences between Indian states in terms of banking infrastructure, size of the economic market and most importantly provincial-level political capacity that creates the pull of foreign direct investment (FDI). While the majority of the extant empirical literature examines national-level data, few studies analyze international capital formation at the provincial level and the dynamics of sub-national political capacity—that is, where allocations are made and policies are implemented. This study corrects for this deficiency. Using data at the provincial level in India over the period 2000–2005, we find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between provincial capacity and FDI, suggesting the presence of a critical point at which additional extractive capabilities have negative implications for foreign capital accumulation. The results suggest a number of important policy implications, allowing researchers to identify specific regions in which capacity is likely to facilitate investment, while also providing a political–economic model to better-forecast changes in investment at the sub-national level in India. JEL: R50, R12, P16, O16, N45, H70, H81, H11

Multilateral adjustment lending to states in India: Hastening fiscal correction or softening the budget constraint?

The widening fiscal deficit of sub-national governments has made the task of macroeconomic stabilisation much more difficult and complex. In many countries, including India, multilateral lending institutions provide assistance for sub-national fiscal reforms through structural adjustment loans (henceforth SAL) with conditionalities heavily loaded with fiscal correction measures. This paper examines the fiscal impact of SAL in Indian states by analysing the quantitative and qualitative aspects of SAL-induced fiscal reforms. Econometric investigation of fiscal impact reveals that state specific effect of SAL in terms of fiscal consolidation has been mixed. There is evidence of softening of the budget constraints in some states, but there is also evidence of greater reduction in fiscal imbalances of SAL states than non-SAL states. It is also seen that much of the fiscal gains have occurred through improved revenue productivity of the tax system and not through expenditure restructuring. It is also seen that the poorer states have preferred to reduce their developmental expenditures to deal with fiscal stress and to comply with fiscal correction targets. This, in turn, has had adverse growth implications. The paper concludes that the benefits and the acceptability of SAL at the sub-national level in India would critically depend on factors such as the qualitative change in government expenditure in meeting deficient delivery of public services at state level, and the removal of state level social and infrastructural bottlenecks for promotion of growth by releasing government resources through expenditure restructuring and reform.