Stylized Facts Research Articles

Mining in space could spur sustainable growth

Growth models with resources and environmental externalities typically assume that planet Earth is a closed economy. However, private firms like Blue Origin and SpaceX have reduced the cost of rocket launches by a factor of 20 over the last decade. What if these costs continue to decline, making mining from asteroids or the moon feasible? What would be the implications for economic growth and the environment? This paper provides stylized facts about cost trends, geology, and the environmental impact of mining on Earth and potentially in Space. We extend a neoclassical growth model to investigate the transition from mining on Earth to Space. We find that such a transition could potentially allow for continued growth of metal use, while limiting environmental and social costs on Earth. Acknowledging the high uncertainty around the topic, our paper provides a starting point for research on how Space mining could contribute to sustainable growth on Earth.

Education, Career and Income: Stylized Facts and Prospect

The paper sorts out the literature on education level and peoples potential income. This article analyzes the link between income and education level and worldwide data to discuss the relationship between income and education level. This study approaches the subject from three angles: the influence of education level on industry selection, the impact of education level on profession selection, and the link between education level and income. The paper review past research and article to further study the topic. For the research, the paper comes to the conclusion that there is a positive correlation between education and income. During the whole education life, there are two obvious jumps over the whole holistic study life. After finishing undergraduate student and getting a diploma, the income will increase faster than two. The student who chooses to pursue a professional degree has the highest income in the whole population. This article helps to understand the choice between employment and continuing education.

Development of Chinas Photovoltaic Industry: Stylized Facts, Difficulties, and Prospect

With the target to achieve national carbon emission peak levels by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, China has diverted a large portion of its resources on the development of renewable energy. As one of the most important domestic renewable energy industries, the photovoltaic industry grows at a rapid pace over the last decade. The essay illustrates the outlook of the photovoltaic industry in China at current in the perspective of industrial achievements and Chinas position in the global market. Through a comprehensive analysis, the challenges of stagnating core technology, imbalance between surging demand and limited supply as well as the dearth of human capital are highlighted. Aiming at a fully-fledged solar energy market in the future, specific suggestions for PV firms and the government will be given. According to the three problems, expansion strategy is advised for firms: expansion of production scale; expansion of recruitment range; and expansion of technology application. Synchronously, the government is proposed supporting policies including fiscal support, academic support and technological support.

Development of Public Transportation and the Real Estate Market in London: Stylized Facts and Prospect

This paper aims to assess how further developments in London's public transport sector could affect the housing market and suggest potential improvements. It begins with a brief introduction to both public transport and the real estate sector in London, then discusses the potential benefit and negative effects that different ways of development can bring. The study will analyze the current state of public transport in London and its impact on the property market, as well as identify areas for improvement. Options for further development will be explored, with findings providing insights into how improving public transport infrastructure can lead to increased property values in the London residential market, as well as social welfare. Recommendations for potential improvements are expected to be made based on these findings.

Sacrifice ratios and the income distribution: Stylized facts for OECD countries

This paper examines the distributional consequences of disinflation by estimating sacrifice ratios (percentage output losses relative to the change in inflation) for different income quintiles and the top 1% of the income distribution. We find that at the tails of the distribution the average percentage output losses are considerably higher than at the center: 1.7 times greater at the left tail, 2.7 times greater at the top 1%.

FOUR STYLIZED FACTS ABOUT COVID‐19

AbstractWe develop a Bayesian method for estimating the dynamics of COVID‐19 deaths and discover four key findings that expose the limitations of current structural epidemiological models . (i) Death growth rates declined rapidly from high levels during the initial 30 days of the epidemic worldwide. (ii) After this initial period, these rates fluctuated substantially around 0%. (iii) The cross‐location standard deviation of death growth rates decreased rapidly in the first 10 days but remained high afterward. (iv) These insights apply to both effective reproduction numbers and their cross‐location variability through epidemiological models. Our method is applicable to studying other epidemics.

Exchange rate fluctuations and manufacturing output: Stylized evidence in Nigeria

One of the key engines of growth in many countries is the manufacturing sector, whose performance is impacted by the movement of the local currency. The manufacturing sector also offers opportunities like increased commerce, innovation, competitiveness, increasing exports, and productivity, which will only be possible when exchange rate is in the form of currency appreciation. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian manufacturing output. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity technique was used in the study in order to examine the exchange rate oscillations. The result of the model estimation revealed that there is no persistence of shocks in the volatility of the exchange rate in the Nigerian economy. The business cycle stylized facts were also used to examine exchange rate volatility and the result established that exchange rate is highly volatile and has a negative effect on manufacturing output in Nigeria. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Bounds test was used to establish the long-run relationship and the result showed that there is a long-run relationship between exchange rate and manufacturing output. The variance decomposition and Impulse Response function were employed and the result revealed that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on manufacturing gross domestic product in Nigeria. In practice, based on the results of the study, it can be recommended to the monetary authorities to constantly monitor the exchange rate fluctuations in order to create policies that are well-informed and match the exchange rate to the actual needs of manufacturing sector in order to boost its output

Volatility is (mostly) path-dependent

We learn from data that volatility is mostly path-dependent: up to 90% of the variance of the implied volatility of equity indexes is explained endogenously by past index returns, and up to 65% for (noisy estimates of) future daily realized volatility. The path-dependency that we uncover is remarkably simple: a linear combination of a weighted sum of past daily returns and the square root of a weighted sum of past daily squared returns with different time-shifted power-law weights capturing both short and long memory. This simple model, which is homogeneous in volatility, is shown to consistently outperform existing models across equity indexes and train/test sets for both implied and realized volatility. It suggests a simple continuous-time path-dependent volatility (PDV) model that may be fed historical or risk-neutral parameters. The weights can be approximated by superpositions of exponential kernels to produce Markovian models. In particular, we propose a 4-factor Markovian PDV model which captures all the important stylized facts of volatility, produces very realistic price and (rough-like) volatility paths, and jointly fits SPX and VIX smiles remarkably well. We thus show that a continuous-time Markovian parametric stochastic volatility (actually, PDV) model can practically solve the joint SPX/VIX smile calibration problem. This article is dedicated to the memory of Peter Carr whose works on volatility modeling have been so inspiring to us.

Trading Constraints in Continuous-Time Kyle Models

In a continuous-time Kyle setting, we prove global existence of an equilibrium when the insider faces a terminal trading constraint. We prove that our equilibrium model produces an output consistent with several empirical stylized facts such as autocorrelated aggregate holdings, decreasing price impacts over the trading day, and shaped optimal trading patterns.

The Impact of Sino-Us Trade Friction on China’s Argo-forest Products: Stylized Facts and Prospect

Sino-US trade friction is a crucial issue in the economic relationship between China and the USA. This paper analyzes how friction influences the bilateral trade of agroforestry products from the perspective of changes in trade volume, using recent-year data. The results show that Sino-US trade friction dissevers and reconstructs the global value chain of agroforestry products. This variation imposes more harm than good on the related global trade pattern. Furthermore, this paper lists and illustrates three measures taken by the Chinese government to deal with the trade friction: expanding the alternative market to meet domestic demand and fill the supply gap, improving the added value to ameliorate the structure of foreign trade and enhancing core competitiveness, and establishing an early warning mechanism to guard against abnormal changes in the international market and increase trade security. Finally, in response to the situation of trade friction, this paper puts forward two politically-sound suggestions that should be adopted by China and the USA for rebuilding a mutually beneficial pattern: negotiating rationally and following the rules of the WTO.

Examining rural income and employment in Bangladesh: A case of structural changes in the rural nonfarm sector in a developing country

AbstractThis study uncovers some important stylised facts about the structural changes in the rural nonfarm (RNF) economy in Bangladesh for the period 2000–2016 and identifies some broad determinants. Our work uses household‐level, secondary sources such as Household Income and Expenditure Survey, Labour Force Survey and Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey. We find that the positive relationship between landownership and rural income has become weaker in recent years, indicating the increasing role of nonland inputs in generating rural income. The share of RNF income in total rural income has increased substantially over the years. The increase in nonfarm income is largely driven by the nonfarm wage income of the richer households, indicating adverse distributional consequences. There are also indications for specialisation in nonfarm activities—the share of income from the ‘mixed’ sources of farm and nonfarm has decreased, and the ‘only nonfarm’ source has increased. Households tend to move away from agriculture and specialise in RNF occupations as the education level increases. Our results offer important insights into rural development strategies and contribute to the broader questions of the development discourse on the structural changes in developing countries.

Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes

This study provides stylised facts on the relationships between natural disasters, investor sentiments and market performance using the recent Turkey–Syria earthquakes. We employ daily stock market data relating to Turkey’s 21 major trading partners and find significant negative impact of the disaster on the sampled countries’ stock market returns, particularly for countries near Turkey.

THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIO-ECONOMICS ON POLITICAL AWARENESS IN THE EFFORT TO INCREASE A NATION'S RESILIENCE (CASE STUDIES OF FIVE MAJOR CITIES IN INDONESIA)

<p align="justify">The existence of an income gap in political participation is explained in this article using Stylized Facts. This study examines the relationship between income and political consciousness in five major Indonesian cities using population, Growth Domestic Product (GDP), health spending, and education spending. The population effects GDP and the proportion of income allocated to Education and Health. In five main cities in Indonesia, income inequality will affect political consciousness. The population affects GDP, which in turn affects the proportion of income allocated to Education and Health. An acceptable allocation of wealth to Education and Health affects political awareness since it influences an individual's aptitude and capacity to reason about their political perceptions.</p>

Four facts about relationship lending: The case of Chile 2012-2019

Using confidential credit-registry data on the universe of bank loans, we characterize the monthly behavior of relationship lending in Chile between 2012 and 2019. We focus on two aspects of relationships between firms and banks: their closeness, and their concentration. We uncover four stylized facts about relationships lending: their behavior through time, cyclical properties, properties of credit contracts in relationships, and the effect of relationships on monetary policy transmission. Our results show that relationship lending plays an important role in credit allocation and in the implementation of financial policies.

Return and volatility properties: Stylized facts from the universe of cryptocurrencies and NFTs

Stylized facts of returns and volatility are an important approximation tool for empirical finance studies, especially in the area of young and new assets. In this paper, we examine the return and volatility properties of four non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and four cryptocurrencies from 24th January 2018–2nd August 2022. The results show the following: Firstly, the returns of both NFTs and cryptocurrencies have fat tails, with evidence of tail exponents following the inverse cubic-law, along with clear persistence behavior. Secondly, all returns exhibit volatility clustering, albeit to varying degrees, and the detected absence of inverse volatility-asymmetry challenges the safe-haven property often documented for cryptocurrencies. Thirdly, return-based long-memory is slightly more intense than volatility-based long-memory, especially for NFTs, which demonstrate a predictability contesting market efficiency. These findings are generally consistent with previous findings on equities, implying that the return and volatility behavior of NFTs and cryptocurrencies is leaning towards that of traditional assets.

Modeling Theories of Women's Underrepresentation in Elections

AbstractResearch on women candidates in American elections uncovers four key facts: Women (i) are underrepresented among candidates, (ii) are underrepresented among office holders, (iii) perform better in office, and (iv) win open seats at equal rates to men. Scholars offer two types of explanations: Women are less willing to run than men, due to differential costs or a gap in self‐perceived qualification, or voters discriminate at the ballot box. We formally model these mechanisms. Lower willingness to run predicts the first three facts but not the fourth. Voter discrimination at the ballot box predicts the first three facts and creates competing effects with respect to the fourth. Thus, the major stylized facts cannot be explained without voter discrimination, whether overt or more subtle. We explore whether a close‐election regression discontinuity distinguishes the mechanisms; surprisingly, it does not.

Noise and Financial Stylized Facts: A Stick Balancing Approach.

In this work, we address the beneficial role of noise in two different contexts, the human brain and financial markets. In particular, the similitude between the ability of financial markets to maintain in equilibrium asset prices is compared with the ability of the human nervous system to balance a stick on a fingertip. Numerical simulations of the human stick balancing phenomenon show that after the introduction of a small quantity of noise and a proper calibration of the main control parameters, intermittent changes in the angular velocity of the stick are able to reproduce the most basilar stylized facts involving price returns in financial markets. These results could also shed light on the relevance of the idea of the "planetary nervous system", already introduced elsewhere, in the financial context.

Lifetime asset allocation with long run risk and time various risk aversion

We propose in this article an optimal lifetime asset allocation model in which we simultaneously consider two important stylized facts, long-run risk and time-varying risk aversion. Our model also accounts for the uncertainty and correlation of long-run returns and volatility. Based on American Consumer Expenditure Survey data and macroeconomic data, we have three main findings. First, individual’s risk attitude roughly rises with age, and it has a significant effect on the individual’s best asset allocation choice. Second, two pairs of correlations between the movement of returns and volatility impact an individual’s choice. In the long run, individuals may take the comovement of returns and volatility into account and adjust their optimal investment strategy. The effects of the adjustment term are determined by the direction and strength of the correlations. Third, the economy has a clear business cycle path, and the optimal fraction of risky assets in portfolio vary within a wide range when the risk premium is high during one’s lifetime. We further, based on our data and parameters, perform a simulation to identify the path of the optimal investment strategy. The result implies that individuals and households with lifetime investments such as pension funds should take risk preferences variation into account, and this is especially for older individuals.

AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model

This paper presents a dynamic agent-based model of land use and agricultural production under environmental boundaries, finite available resources and endogenous technical change. In particular, we model a spatially explicit smallholder farming system populated by boundedly-rational agents competing and innovating to fulfill an exogenous demand for food, while coping with a changing environment shaped by their production choices. Given the strong technological and environmental uncertainty, agents learn and adaptively employ heuristics which guide their decisions on engaging in innovation and imitation activities, hiring workers, acquiring new farms, deforesting virgin areas and abandoning unproductive lands. Such activities in turn impact farm productivity, food production, food prices and land use. We firstly show that the model can replicate key stylized facts of the agricultural sector. We then extensively explore its properties across several scenarios featuring different institutional and behavioral settings. Finally, we simulate the model across different applications considering deforestation and land abandonment; human-induced soil degradation; and climate impacts. AgriLOVE offers a flexible simulation environment to study the endogenous emergence of different agricultural production regimes from the interaction of spatially dispersed farms subject to resource constraints, spatial influence and climate change.

Shocks and the determinants of resilience: Fish and shrimp value chains in Bangladesh after Covid‐19

AbstractThere is little systematic evidence on the resilience of South Asian agri‐food value chains since the onset of Covid‐19. Using two rounds of surveys of 1751 fish and shrimp value chain actors in Bangladesh, this paper undertakes two sets of tasks: (a) analyzes business continuity (closures and resumptions) and its implications for household food security, and (b) adapts a ten‐item measure of subjective resilience and examines its predictors: diversity, scope, scale, vertical integration, and cluster effects. Results show that recent closures are linked to Covid‐19, suggesting that firms were only able to sustain operations for a period of 8–9 months before folding due to cumulative stresses; and that the degree of resilience varies significantly across value chains and the segments within them. Interestingly, contrary to established stylized facts, clusters appear to be negatively correlated with resilience, indicating that cooperation among value chain actors within a cluster breaks down under large‐scale covariate shocks. The implications of these and other key findings are discussed.