Election Study Research Articles

Indigenous Diffuse Support and Descriptive Representation in the Canadian House of Commons

Abstract Do Indigenous peoples in present-day Canada display lower levels of diffuse support than non-Indigenous settlers? Given settler colonial relations (both historic and contemporary) and Indigenous peoples’ own political thought, we can expect that Indigenous peoples would have even lower perceptions of state legitimacy than non-Indigenous peoples. However, there are conflicting expectations regarding whether the descriptive representation of Indigenous peoples in settler institutions is likely to make a difference: on one hand, Indigenous people may see themselves reflected in these institutions and consequently feel better represented; on the other hand, these forms of representation do not challenge the underlying colonial nature of these institutions. Using data from the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Election Studies, our statistical analysis demonstrates that: (1) diffuse support is significantly lower among Indigenous peoples than non-Indigenous peoples, including people of color; (2) Indigenous respondents across multiple peoples have similarly low levels of diffuse support, and (3) being represented by an Indigenous Member of Parliament does not change the levels of diffuse support among Indigenous peoples. Overall, our research highlights the outstanding challenges to achieving reconciliation through the Canadian state and points to ways large-N analyses may be made more robust.

The Curious Case of Black “Conservatives”: Assessing the Validity of the Liberal-Conservative Scale among Black Americans

Abstract Many Black Americans identify as conservative on surveys, despite their allegiance to the Democratic Party. Prominent theoretical accounts claim this mismatch results from identity-based considerations. I revisit this long-standing puzzle and offer an alternative explanation with broad implications for studying political attitudes and behavior across the social sciences. Leveraging data from the American National Election Studies, I demonstrate that the terms “liberal” and “conservative” are unfamiliar to many Black Americans, compromising the usefulness and validity of the liberal-conservative scale for Black respondents. Respondents unfamiliar with these terms misapply them and choose ideological labels that fail to align with their partisan preferences. Consequently, scholars and political actors make incorrect and imprecise inferences about the contours of Black politics. Findings also raise new concerns about the generalizability of claims that rely on ideological self-identification measures, including popular claims about mass polarization and partisan-ideological sorting among the American public. Critically, this work suggests a need for caution when using concepts that vary in their meaningfulness across social groups.

Learning medical sociology through an innovative 'Elective study module' integrating humanities with medicine for undergraduate students of a medical college in Bengaluru, India.

Background The newly introduced 'Elective programme', a voluntary special study module in the final phase of the undergraduate medical curriculum, offers scope for new immersive, self-directed learning opportunities. We describe a programme of study for learning 'medical sociology' through the innovative use of humanities in medicine. Methods Our elective module, called 'Community Health and Rock Music' (CHaRM), was a 2-week programme, merging the curricular subject of community health with 'rock music' as an exposure to the 'counter-culture' outside of the medical world. The half-day sessions consisted of: (i) watching/listening to a rock song-video without reading its lyrics; (ii) listening to the same song again but with lyrics; (iii) undertaking an emotionally stimulating activity (watching a movie, making a site-visit, etc.); and (iv) debriefing, to identify/discuss the underlying social determinants of health and their relevance in the grooming of a socially aware medical student. Formative assessment was intended to gauge levels of expression of the affective domain (attitude/emotions). Results Seven of 143 students volunteered for this programme. Key learnings were a clear appreciation of the societal determinants of health (such as deprivation/discrimination/social structures); multi-level causation of diseases; social issues not addressed in traditional medical curriculum; personal growth; teamwork; and the role of empathy in medical practice. Additional learning was the exposure to the 'counter-culture of arts'. All 7 student assessments 'met expectation', with 4 of them 'exceeding expectation'. Conclusion An 'elective programme' combining humanities with medicine is potentially an innovative, student-centric and replicable model of learning that impacts the affective domain critical for doctors-in-training.

U.S. against the world: Authoritarianism among American public servants

AbstractWhat is the prevalence of authoritarianism among public servants in the United States, and what are its resulting consequences? Several underlying psychological traits are associated with both authoritarianism and a desire to work in the public sector, such as an aversion to ambiguity and a preference for order and security. Scholarship also suggests that those with high authoritarian attributes may see the world through an ‘us versus them’ prism; in this case, the ‘them’ may be represented by other countries. Therefore, it is hypothesised that those with higher authoritarian attributes are more likely to work in the public sector and that public servants with higher authoritarian attributes are more likely to be sensitive to potential threats to the country. Using six surveys that cover a 20‐year period from the American National Elections Study, both hypotheses are supported. Authoritarian attributes are associated with an increased likelihood of government employment. Additionally, authoritarian public servants tend to support government wiretapping and express greater concern about terrorism. The presence of authoritarianism among public sector employees has implications for a range of governance issues, which makes it important to understand where and to what degree it is prevalent.Points for practitioners More attention should be devoted to the division and prevalence of authoritarian attributes within public servants . Checks and oversight mechanisms should be implemented for public sector employees in sensitive areas to help counterbalance potential authoritarian impulses. Organisational cultures that value openness, evidence‐based policymaking, and tolerance for dissenting viewpoints should be fostered as a counterweight to authoritarian preferences for conformity.

Strategic voting in two-round elections: confirming the learning hypothesis in the Czech presidential elections of 2013–2023?

ABSTRACT This paper explores whether strategic voting can also be identified in two-round electoral systems. We use aggregate data at the level of Czechia’s 206 microregions to assess the incidence of strategic voting in the Czech presidential elections using two-round elections between 2013 and 2023. We find the following evidence of a considerable rise of strategic voting in the 2023 presidential election: (1) rise of support for the two strongest candidates nationally, as well as at the level of individual microregions; (2) decline of strategic failure and sincere voting indicated by shifting values of the second-first loser ratio; (3) increased electoral competition approaching strong competitive two-party dominance as shown by Nagayama diagrams. These results point to the importance of the ‘learning hypothesis’ that strategic voting in new democracies tends to increase as voters (but also political elites) become more experienced with the electoral process. Furthermore, while we present a case study of a Czech presidential election, we also make an important contribution to the literature on strategic voting. Therefore, a theoretical contribution of this study also lies in its effort to apply the Duvergerian logic to a very different context of presidential elections in which electoral competition is highly personalised.

How parties can shape their competence reputations: Issue attention, position and performance

AbstractIssue ownership is an important determinant of the vote, and it is electorally beneficial for parties to build a strong reputation on their core issues. Even though issue ownership has already been studied extensively in the party literature, we know less about how citizens form ownership perceptions. We contribute to this literature by means of two studies on the connection between party behaviour and perceptions of issue ownership, with an empirical focus on issue competence reputations of parties. In Study 1, we combine party‐level information about issue attention, positions and performance with data on competence perceptions from a wide range of national election studies. Study 2 is a pre‐registered conjoint experiment designed to examine the causal link between party behaviour and perceived competence. Our results point to significant effects for all three hypothesised sources of competence reputations. Moving beyond previous work that has argued that competence reputations are mostly stable over time, after accounting for the variation due to parties' popularity, our results show that they fluctuate in the short term and that parties have some level of control over how they are perceived.

The Qualitative Election Study of Britain Party Leader Evaluations Database, 2010–2019

Abstract The authors describe the Qualitative Election Study of Britain (qesb) Party Leader Evaluation Database, a database containing 4,119 words and phrases evaluating British political party leaders. The data were collected during pre-election focus groups and interviews with participants from England, Scotland, and Wales during the General Election campaigns of 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019. A supplementary dataset of leaders’ evaluation data from Dundee residents after the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 is also provided. To collect the data, participants viewed headshot pictures of major and minor party leaders (depending on where in Britain they lived) taken from party websites. Participants wrote down words or phrases they associated with each leader and coded their assessment as positive, negative, or neutral. These data are suitable for content, sentiment, and discourse analysis or analytic generalization.

Overlooked de- and realignment? Cohort differences in consideration sets

While it is established that core values and voting behaviour persistently differ between birth cohorts, less is known about the consideration set stage that lies between those two points of the electoral decision. However, studying cohort differences in the consideration stage can help even better to detect underlying cohort-driven transformations of the electoral decision than the final vote choice. This article thus studies this ‘overlooked’ stage: Do newer cohorts consider voting for more parties than earlier cohorts? And how does the composition of the consideration sets differ? These questions are analysed by using data from the European Election Studies, covering thirty years and fifteen countries. APC-mixed-regressions show that newer cohorts are more likely to include more parties in their consideration sets. Furthermore, cohort differences exist regarding which parties are represented in consideration sets. Those results have important implications for understanding cohort-driven de- and realignment, as well as increasing trends of volatility.

Prediction of Canadian Federal Election Results Based on Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification

In democratic countries like Canada, elections provide eligible citizens (aged 18 or older) the opportunity to vote and elect their leader. Since different political parties have distinct ideologies, election outcomes have significant societal impacts, making election result predictions crucial. This study aims to predict whether the Liberal Party will maintain its victory in the 2025 Canadian federal election using a multilevel regression model combined with post-stratification. The data for this research comes from the 2021 Canadian Election Study (CES) and the General Social Survey (GSS), with the cleaned datasets including variables such as age, gender, education, and province. Through the constructed multilevel logistic regression model and post-stratification adjustments, the results show that approximately 26.63% of Canadian citizens will vote for the Liberal Party in the next Canadian federal election. This prediction aligns with the hypothesis that the Liberal Party will not win the upcoming federal election. However, some variables in the model are not statistically significant, and the data is somewhat outdated. Future research should consider incorporating more variables and updated data.

Political rule (vs. opposition) predicts whether ideological prejudice is stronger in U.S. conservatives or progressives.

People see societal groups as less moral, warm, and likable if their ideology is more dissimilar to the ideology of the self (i.e., ideological prejudice). We contribute to the debate on whether ideological prejudice in the United States is stronger in conservatives, progressives, or neither. Investigating the American National Election Studies, we found that between 1972 and 2021, ideological prejudice was stronger in conservatives. However, investigating studies conducted to develop the agency-beliefs-communion model, we found that between 2016 and 2021, ideological prejudice was stronger in progressives. We report various analyses of both research programs and two new studies that rule out several explanations for this contradiction. Additional analytic and experimental evidence suggests that political rule (vs. opposition) may explain the robust heterogeneity in asymmetric ideological prejudice. Ideological prejudice shifted toward being stronger in conservatives when the United States was governed by Democrats and toward being stronger in progressives when the United States was governed by Republicans. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Left Behind Economically or Politically? Economic Grievances, Representation, and Populist Attitudes

Research on the relationship between discontent and populist attitudes abounds. However, whether this discontent arises in response to economic grievances or a perceived lack of representation remains understudied. While previous research has considered both as independent factors, we assume their interaction drives populist attitudes. We argue that deprivation and sentiments of being left behind exacerbate the feeling that one’s policy positions are not recognized and represented in politics. To test this claim empirically, we draw on recent data from the German Longitudinal Election Study of 2021. We combine egocentric and sociotropic indicators of being left behind and interact these with the perceived distance of one’s own policy positions to the positions of the opposition and government parties represented in parliament. We find that both perceptions of personal and societal deprivation, as well as a greater perceived distance from the government, are associated with populist attitudes. Furthermore, we find that the effect of distance from the government is contingent on someone’s economic position, albeit the direction of the interaction effect contradicts our initial expectations: The effect of perceived ideological distance from the government on populist attitudes is primarily reinforced among those who are better off rather than for those who struggle economically. This implies that populist attitudes ought to be addressed depending on the source of discontent rather than treating populism as a general expression of indiscriminate protest. Our analysis contributes to understanding the various origins of populist attitudes and to developing possible ways of mitigation.

Racial Stereotypes, Racial Threat, and Support for Felon Disenfranchisement Among White Americans

Applying racial stereotypes and the racial threat framework to felon disenfranchisement support, this study argues white Americans who think Black Americans are more violent will be more supportive of felon disenfranchisement, and that this effect will be largest for white Republicans and white Americans who put greater importance in their racial identity. Analyses of the 2020 American National Election Study finds white Americans who think Black (white) Americans are more violent are more (less) supportive of felon disenfranchisement, with suggestive evidence these effects are more pronounced for white Republicans and white Americans holding greater racial importance. At the same time, the effects of violence stereotypes are consistently substantively small, amounting to less than one half of one level change in disenfranchisement support on a seven-point scale. These effect sizes are on par with partisanship, slightly smaller than other racial attitudes and crime spending preferences, and far outpaced by ideology. Overall, these results suggest racial stereotypes may factor into support for felon disenfranchisement, but these stereotypes are not a driving factor of such support.

Individual Electoral Competitiveness: Undecided voters, complex choice environments and lower turnout

The number of citizens that are undecided in their vote choice has risen in Western democracies. Polling in Britain shows that a significant proportion of the population do not know who they will vote for. Against a backdrop of partisan dealignment and party system fragmentation, there are more parties on the ballot and more citizens ‘free to choose’. Partisanship continues to be important for voting and lacking an identity is a predictor of aggregate voter volatility. A growing literature conceptualises this availability of voters as individual-level electoral competitiveness, stating that undecided citizens are subject to high levels of competition for their vote. I use this framework and apply theory from the decisionmaking literature to offer why these conditions may depress turnout. I construct a measure of undecided voters who are ‘in competition’ and show that this accounts for 40% of the British Election Study Internet Panel respondents. I demonstrate that those who are in competition are less likely to vote. They are more often those without a partisan identity and those who pay less attention to politics, but being in competition is not related to constituency marginality. The results help explain a key determinant of abstention in British elections and suggest low levels of participation may be due to complex choice environments and citizen indecision. However, they provide a positive outlook for pluralistic democracy as voters do deliberate between the party perspectives on offer.

Enhancing Digital Health Awareness and mHealth Competencies in Medical Education: Proof-of-Concept Study and Summative Process Evaluation of a Quality Improvement Project.

Currently, there is a need to optimize knowledge on digital transformation in mental health care, including digital therapeutics (eg, prescription apps), in medical education. However, in Germany, digital health has not yet been systematically integrated into medical curricula and is taught in a relatively small number of electives. Challenges for lecturers include the dynamic field as well as lacking guidance on how to efficiently apply innovative teaching formats for these new digital competencies. Quality improvement projects provide options to pilot-test novel educational offerings, as little is known about the acceptability of participatory approaches in conventional medical education. This quality improvement project addressed the gap in medical school electives on digital health literacy by introducing and evaluating an elective scoping study on the systematic development of different health app concepts designed by students to cultivate essential skills for future health care professionals (ie, mobile health [mHealth] competencies). This proof-of-concept study describes the development, optimization, implementation, and evaluation of a web-based elective on digital (mental) health competencies in medical education. Implemented as part of a quality improvement project, the elective aimed to guide medical students in developing app concepts applying a design thinking approach at a German medical school from January 2021 to January 2024. Topics included defining digital (mental) health, quality criteria for health apps, user perspective, persuasive design, and critical reflection on digitization in medical practice. The elective was offered 6 times within 36 months, with continuous evaluation and iterative optimization using both process and outcome measures, such as web-based questionnaires. We present examples of app concepts designed by students and summarize the quantitative and qualitative evaluation results. In total, 60 students completed the elective and developed 25 health app concepts, most commonly targeting stress management and depression. In addition, disease management and prevention apps were designed for various somatic conditions such as diabetes and chronic pain. The results indicated high overall satisfaction across the 6 courses according to the evaluation questionnaire, with lower scores indicating higher satisfaction on a scale ranging from 1 to 6 (mean 1.70, SD 0.68). Students particularly valued the content, flexibility, support, and structure. While improvements in group work, submissions, and information transfer were suggested, the results underscore the usefulness of the web-based elective. This quality improvement project provides insights into relevant features for the successful user-centered and creative integration of mHealth competencies into medical education. Key factors for the satisfaction of students involved the participatory mindset, focus on competencies, discussions with app providers, and flexibility. Future efforts should define important learning objectives for digital health literacy and provide recommendations for integration rather than debating the need for digital health integration.

The changing South in presidential elections

We examine presidential elections in the American South. Our empirical starting point is the 2008 election of Democrat Barack Obama. We discuss political dynamics leading up to this historic contest but focus our analysis on the last four elections concluding with the defeat of President Trump in 2020. Tapping into recent southern politics scholarship emphasizing partisan patterns that differ based on population growth (or lack thereof), we show how this factor affects presidential voting with an assemblage of data collected at the state-, county-, and individual-level. We first consider the prominence of presidential Republicanism across the 11 southern states. Next, we delve into these states’ counties to further assess two-party competition in presidential contests. Finally, drawing on Cooperative Election Study (CES) data, controlling for a host of factors, we examine whether varying population rates at the state- and county-level affect presidential preferences. The U.S. South is forever changing, and in presidential politics substantial alterations to its electorate generally favor an emerging Democratic Party.

Divergent views of party positions: How ideology and own issue position shape party perception through convergence and divergence processes

The current research explores how respondents’ ideology influences their perception of political parties’ stances on various issues. Additionally, we examine how three distinct indicators of ideological strength—congruence between ideology and party affiliation, level of education, and engagement in political activities—affect these perceptions. Our empirical analyses rely on data from the 1968–2012 Cumulative American National Election Study dataset, which captures respondents’ views on the stances of US political parties regarding ten key issues. We find that, after controlling for respondents’ own issue positions, (i) perceptions of the positions held by the opponent party are strongly influenced by respondents’ ideologies, and (ii) this influence is more pronounced among individuals with stronger ideological convictions, as indicated by the three aforementioned indicators. Conversely, when examining perceptions of one’s favored party, ideology demonstrates a weak and inconsistent effect across the three markers of ideological strength. We discuss theoretical frameworks that may elucidate these findings, their implications for understanding political polarization, and we acknowledge limitations related to the dataset’s characteristics.

Partisan differences in perceived levels of democracy across presidential administrations

Democracy in the United States is in decline. The current work examines to what degree U.S. Americans perceive this decline in the U.S., and how partisanship may shape those perceptions over time. Using cross-sectional archival data spanning three U.S. presidential administrations (Study 1), we find that perceived levels of democracy by U.S. Americans on both sides of the political spectrum were not attuned to objective democracy indices but instead followed a partisan gap where election winners perceived higher levels of democracy than election losers. Using a longitudinal quasi-experiment tracking the 2020 presidential election (Study 2), we find that the effect of partisanship on perceived levels of democracy kicked in right after the announcement of the election winner but was the strongest after the official inauguration. Moreover, Trump supporters showed heterogeneous responses to the Capitol attack, which highlights the possibility of bipartisan willingness to defend democracy after salient attacks on democratic principles. We discuss the implications of the effect of partisanship on perceptions of democracy.

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on support for the SNP and Scottish independence

ABSTRACT The retrospective model of voting holds that parties are elected based on their perceived competence in government and punished for incompetence. This theory is complicated in contexts of multilevel governance as it requires attributing responsibility to a particular party in a particular level of government. This paper tests the extent to which this model explains public opinion in a multilevel context (Scotland) on a high-stakes valence issue (the coronavirus pandemic). Using British Election Study Internet Panel data from 2019 to 2021, it assesses how the public responded to the perceived competence of the Scottish Government and British Government. The results find that for each Government those voters who rated their handling of the pandemic more highly increased their liking of the governing party and its leader. Further, those voters who thought a Government had performed well were more likely to switch towards supporting the party in power, but this depended on how much they previously liked that party. Similarly, increases in support for Scottish independence from the UK came from those voters who not only judged the Scottish Government to have handled the pandemic well, but also previously liked the SNP prior to the pandemic.

Multiraciality and racialized politics in the United States

ABSTRACT In the United States, political ideology and political party affiliation provide important indicators of multiracial individuals’ place in the historic racial order. I ask the following research question: Do multiracials lean White or non-White in their political ideologies and political party affiliations? I argue that an individual’s racial identity shapes their political alignments, and multiracials’ alignments reveal how they affect racialized politics. I reference classic assimilation, minority trumping, and selection as theoretical frameworks that may indicate how multiracials are positioned in the contemporary racial order. Using the American National Election Study Time Series Studies (ANES 2008, 2012, 2016), I conduct a quantitative analysis (i.e. OLS regression models and multinomial logit models) and examine the relationship between respondents’ multiracial self-identification and political ideology and political party affiliation. Multiracials, who identify as White and non–White, experience an in-between effect, compared to their monoracial counterparts.

Is there a rural-urban political divide in Britain?

ABSTRACT A rural-urban political divide, characterized by rural mistrust in politics, dissatisfaction with democracy, and support for authoritarian-populist leaders and parties, has been identified in many Western democracies. Yet there has been little investigation of the extent to which British public opinion is divided in this fashion. Using British Election Study data from 2016 and 2019 that combines large samples with finely-grained geographic identifiers, this paper investigates the possible presence and extent of a rural-urban divide in British political attitudes and values. We find that while rural Britons are more conservative on economic issues, and more supportive of the Conservative party than urbanites, the two groups have comparable levels of democratic satisfaction, political trust, and authoritarianism. As such, unlike in other Western democracies, we do not find any evidence that rural Britons are more resentful, dissatisfied, or “left-behind” compared to their urban counterparts.