Overlooked de- and realignment? Cohort differences in consideration sets

Abstract

While it is established that core values and voting behaviour persistently differ between birth cohorts, less is known about the consideration set stage that lies between those two points of the electoral decision. However, studying cohort differences in the consideration stage can help even better to detect underlying cohort-driven transformations of the electoral decision than the final vote choice. This article thus studies this ‘overlooked’ stage: Do newer cohorts consider voting for more parties than earlier cohorts? And how does the composition of the consideration sets differ? These questions are analysed by using data from the European Election Studies, covering thirty years and fifteen countries. APC-mixed-regressions show that newer cohorts are more likely to include more parties in their consideration sets. Furthermore, cohort differences exist regarding which parties are represented in consideration sets. Those results have important implications for understanding cohort-driven de- and realignment, as well as increasing trends of volatility.