Econometric Studies Research Articles

Unveiling Regional Disparities in Unemployment: A Spatial Econometric Study of Spain

This present work investigates the spatial distribution of the unemployment rate in Spain, one of the European countries with the highest recorded level of unemployment. The unemployment rate reached 16% during the pandemic. For this purpose, data from 2020 were used, such as the growth rate of the number of companies and entrepreneurs, the percentage of the workforce employed in the industrial sector, and the percentage of young people aged 16–25 years. All of these data were collected at the provincial level. The importance of spatiality in unemployment estimation is proven using regressions estimated in Geoda and GeodaSpace. The results support the introduction of the lag factor in regressions, improving the performance of the OLS model. However, the use of error models was found to be inefficient. Moreover, creating local estimates of coefficients can effectively adapt to the unique spatial characteristics of Spanish provinces. The research focuses on the sustainability challenges linked to regional inequalities in unemployment. It argues that these inequalities disrupt the balanced distribution of economic activities and hinder the achievement of long-term sustainable development across Spain’s regions. Resolving these inequalities is crucial for promoting regional competitiveness and overall economic growth.

The Validity of the Phillips Curve Relationship: An Econometric Study on Moroccan Data

The Phillips curve is a key tool in the formulation of economic policies. The primary objective of this study is to examine the validity of this curve in the Moroccan context. To this end, we employ an ARDL model, applied to annual data covering the period from 1991 to 2023. The results reveal a co-integration relationship, indicating a stable and long-term link between inflation and unemployment. However, contrary to the classical predictions of the Phillips curve, the analysis shows a significant positive impact of inflation on unemployment: a 1% increase in unemployment leads to a 1.22% rise in inflation in the short term, and 1.51% in the long term. These findings challenge the applicability of the Phillips curve in Morocco, highlighting that local economic dynamics deviate from the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This divergence underscores the urgent need to redefine Morocco's economic policies by adopting integrated and balanced monetary and fiscal strategies to effectively address these two major challenges.

The Impact of the Balance of Payments on the Development of the Iraqi Economy (An Econometric Study for The Period 1992-2022)

The Iraqi economy has not witnessed " a clear stability since 2003 until now due to the continuous fluctuations in the prices Global oil , which affects its annual revenues " in particular because it is a unilateral rentier economy, we find that more than 80% of Iraqi exports Oil, as it is considered the general determinant of the country's economy , while the rest of the exports are commodities of industrial and agricultural products. On the other hand , the balance of payments did not provide a remarkable perception of the economic contraction of a country of previous years, which helps To find solutions to the economy, which is affected by fluctuations and shocks in the local, Arab and global macro economy, where the Iraqi balances varied between the deficit and surplus for previous years.The research aims to see the extent of development and growth of the Iraqi economy in light of the continuous disparity of the Iraqi balance of payments being a mirror reflecting it and contribute to finding solutions and alternatives to oil exports and commodity diversity.

Industry 4.0 and the Importance of an Ecosystem‐Based Approach: An Empirical Investigation Based on a Mixed‐Method Analysis

ABSTRACTThis paper will analyze the role of the innovation ecosystem (IES) in the industry implementation process of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) at company level. Based on a mixed‐method analysis using econometric models and content analysis, we have investigated the implementation process of industry 4.0‐enabling technologies of 123 manufacturing companies in the Hauts‐de‐France region of France. We have showed that the implementation process of industry 4.0‐enabling technologies is facilitated by the complexities of relationships between actors, complementarities among actors, particularly between start‐ups and others ecosystem stakeholders, and the role of regional policies (innovation support). Our quantitative results confirm that complex relationships with heterogenous actors within an IES positively affect the implementation process of Industry 4.0 at company level. While our qualitative analysis has showed that business‐to‐business relationships were decisive, our quantitative analysis has gone further and has showed that the more a given company develops diverse forms of relationships with other companies within the IES, the higher the level of I4.0 implementation‐enabling technologies there are in the company. Both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate the importance of university‐industry linkage and of business incubators for the I4.0 implementation process, in enabling technologies at company level. A further result that completes our econometric study is the clear identification by company managers of the key role played by collaborative innovation projects and by start‐ups as providers of new solutions in fostering their I4.0 technological development. Therefore, our research calls for an ecosystem‐based approach to fostering I4.0 implementation at company level.

Impact of Earnings Management on Market Value in Light of Dividend Policy: an Econometric Study of a Sample of Saudi Stock Exchange-Listed Companies During the Period 2010–2021

This study aimed at examining the impact of earnings management on market value under a dividend policy for a sample of institutions listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange and registered in TASI during the period (2010–2021). A descriptive analytical approach and a quantitative econometric analysis using One-Step System GMM Dynamic Panel Data Model were employed. The study reported that all the institutions performed a short-term earnings management oscillating up and down by different proportions during the study period, and that there is an impact of earnings management on value market in both the absence and presence of the dividend policy. The study therefore points to the need for investors education about accounting manipulation in general and earnings management in particular as the latter has an impact on the market value of institutional shares and accordingly on their investment decisions.

The Impact of Information and Communication Technology on Financial Depth in Algeria: An Econometric Study During the Period 2010-2023

The Impact of Information and Communication Technology on Financial Depth in Algeria: An Econometric Study During the Period 2010-2023

Transmission of monetary policy impulses on the capital structure of manufacturing firms: Evidence from an emerging economy

A country's monetary policy influences a firm's economic decisions by influencing the cost of external debt offered to firms by commercial banks. However, research on the effect of monetary policy on the capital structure of firms located in bank credit-driven developing economies is limited. This research paper tries to fill that gap by examining the effects of monetary policy impulses on the short- and long-term capital structure of firms in an emerging economy. Using quadratic econometric equation and GMM regression model study analyzes annual financial data of 2575 non-financial firms belonging to 8 manufacturing sectors covering the duration of 13 years ranging from 2009 to 2021. The results show a curvilinear relationship between monetary policy impulses and firms' capital structure in different manufacturing industry sectors. Monetary policy was found to have a different impact on short-term and long-term borrowings of financially flexible and inflexible manufacturing firms.

An Econometric Study on Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Exports: A Case of Russia, Azerbaijan and Indonesia

After oil crisis in 1970s, discussions of the oil price effect on economies have accelerated. In addition to being a exhaustible energy source, the environmental pollution it generates has led many developed countries to shift towards renewable energy sources. Furthermore, fluctuations in oil prices and increased dependence on it have disruptive effects on national economies. All these factors pose a threat to countries with oil reserves and economies heavily reliant on the oil industry. This study, examines the relationship between oil prices, exports, and exchange rates in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia whose sum of oil consumption and production exceed that of Europe but have not been the primary focus of previous research. This study employs a panel causality test and encompasses data from 1996 to 2021. The findings indicate the existence of a unidirectional causality relationship from oil prices to both exports and exchange rates in the countries studied. Additionally, the research reveals a unidirectional relationship between exports and exchange rates.

The impact of industrial agglomeration on the synergistic evolution of the energy big data ecosystem: empirical findings from China

Whether industrial agglomeration can promote the synergistic evolution of the energy big data ecosystem (EBDE) is important for effectively solving environmental pollution problems, promoting clean technology innovation, and achieving sustainable development of the energy industry. To this end, this paper applies the Harken model to construct EBDE synergy indicators from a synergistic perspective in 30 Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2020. The EBDE core subsystem is the sequential covariate, which plays a decisive factor in the synergistic evolution of EBDE. The synergy value of the system in each province shows a significant upward trend, and the overall synergy condition is significantly improved. On this basis, this paper explores how industrial agglomeration affects the synergistic evolution of the energy big data ecosystem. The results of the econometric study show that industrial agglomeration at the national level contributes to the enhancement of CEBDE. However, the impact of industrial agglomeration on CEBDE varies significantly at the regional level. In the central region, industrial agglomeration can contribute to the enhancement of CEBDE, but in the eastern and western regions, the industrial agglomeration has no significant effect on CEBDE. Finally, based on the study, this paper proposes specific recommendations for improving CEBDE. These results have important implications for the formulation of energy-use policies and the realization of sustainable energy development.

REGIONAL FORCES AND URBAN FORMS: GROWTH DIRECTION

The possibility of influence that the regional system may have on the urban forms that cities tend to assume is discussed. The difference in scale involved in this vision, which ranges from the regional scale, passes through the municipal scale, and given this situation that presents the way in which urban form, city and region are approached today, it appears that the Studies lack greater connection and assessment of influences between different scales and impacts. This research is carried out through the proposal of a methodological guide, and the instrument developed to obtain results was the collection of data and construction of variables of interest, which can provide a useful tool to study the influence of spatial effects on aggregation of spatial interaction models and how much they can contribute in different ways to substantial achievements in spatial econometric studies, in addition to suggesting statistical tools that infer the value, intensity and probable hierarchy of average flows at certain levels of aggregation of real and estimated available variables.

The Influence of Speculation in Food and Commodities and the Impact of Futures Prices on Spot Prices- Evidence from two Behavioral Experiments

This paper examines the impact of speculation on commodity and food futures on spot prices. Econometric studies contradict each other, coming not to a clear empirical outcome. Therefore, we take an alternative methodological approach with two behavioral experiments. The outcome shows, that tendencies in futures prices influence the price-setting behavior of market players in the spot market in the same direction. Since futures prices had no direct influence on profits and there were no other influences, futures prices must have influenced the expectations of market participants psychologically. Speculation with futures prices thus has an influence on spot prices via expectations. When speculation involves commodities and food in the future market serving crucial real economic functions it can lead to substantial misallocations and damages, why speculation should be regulated.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Entrepreneurship and Trade Openness within the Framework of Quantile Panel Approach: The Case of OECD Countries

This study aims to examine the impact of the trade openness of selected OECD countries on entrepreneurship. There is a general acceptance that the impact of the trade openness of economies on entrepreneurship is positive. In the analysis process, econometric modeling studies were carried out based on the data of the selected OECD countries for the 2006-2020 period. The quantile panel regression technique was used to test the impact of trade openness on entrepreneurship. The quantile panel regression analyses have been carried out with an approach that considers the asymmetric situation between the selected OECD countries. Hence, this approach has been a contribution to the literature. Policy recommendations are presented within the framework of empirical findings. According to the empirical findings, entrepreneurship activities are important in terms of increasing economic performance in the selected OECD countries and show that policies should be implemented in support of entrepreneurship activities. The necessity of considering the impact of the trade openness level on entrepreneurship in determining policies has been revealed. In particular, the fact that the economies assess this issue in the policy development process can be considered a strategic instrument.

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on hotel performance: evidence from the Italian hospitality sector

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Italian hospitality sector. The investigation attempts to explain whether hotel performance drops when the perceived economic uncertainty increases in the period 2018–2022.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the impact of EPU on hotel performance in a sample of 661 Italian luxury hotels. To establish the relationship between EPU and hotel performance, we employ the generalized estimating equations (GEE) technique on 3,305 hotel-year observations.FindingsThe results show that EPU has a negative impact on hotel performance. More specifically, the analysis reveals that EPU is negatively and significantly related to the revenue per available room (REVPAR), average daily rate (ADR) and hotel occupancy (OCCR). We also look at the role of hotel brand chain affiliation and the moderating effect of conference space and hotel wellness services on the relationship between EPU and hotel performance.Research limitations/implicationsResults provide new evidence for academics to critically evaluate the behavior of luxury hotels under uncertain economic conditions. The investigation offers valuable information also for government, tourism policymakers, tourist hotel owners, hoteliers and tourism managers in their decision-making.Practical implicationsThis study provides strategic implications for practitioners and operators in hospitality industry to evaluate the factors ensuring hotel profitability in periods of EPU.Originality/valueThis paper provides interesting insights into the characteristics and practices of profitable hotels in Italy. Few econometric studies empirically explored the effects of EPU in the hospitality field so far and no prior study investigated this topic in the Italian hospitality sector. Therefore, this paper tries to close an important gap in the existing literature improving the understanding of EPU in the Italian hospitality industry.

An analysis of fiscal management and macroeconomic stability: An econometric study of public policies in Latin American countries

An analysis of fiscal management and macroeconomic stability: An econometric study of public policies in Latin American countries

Spatial-structural analysis of macroeconomic factors' impact on carbon emissions in East Africa: a spatial econometric panel study.

Despite the abundance of research on reducing carbon emissions, there is a significant gap in understanding the influence of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a spatial-structural perspective. This study aims to contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of macroeconomic factors on carbon dioxide emissions in six East African countries between 1989 and 2020. Using spatial econometric panel models, the study analyzed spatial dependence among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and electricity consumption have positive direct and indirect effects on carbon emissions, while fuel prices and exports have negative direct effects, but positive spillover effects on neighboring countries. Imports have a positive impact on local economies, but negative spillover effects. Additionally, the urban population has no significant impact on the environment. These findings provide important policy implications for optimizing spatial growth patterns and achieving a low-carbon economy in East African countries.

The Impact of Monetary Policy in Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in the Iraqi Economy for The Period (1990 - 2023) an Econometric Study

The exchange rate is a monetary economic indicator that expresses a country's economic performance. The exchange rate is the basic foundation on which the economies of any country in the world are built, whether developed or developing. As a result, most governments seek to implement regulations that ensure the currency exchange rate remains stable. To avoid the radical changes that currencies will endure during another period. The exchange rate also plays a prominent role in monetary policy, due to its use as an intermediate target, or as a tool, or simply as an indicator of the competitiveness of countries through its impact on components of economic growth such as investment, the degree of economic openness, the inflation rate, the narrow money supply, and the volume of exports. And the volume of imports, and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to try to identify the nature of the exchange rate. As a result, in the first section, we discussed the concept of monetary policy, its most important tools, its most important goals, the exchange rate, and Iraq’s experience in the field of exchange during the period (1990-2023). While the second section was devoted to measuring the impact of monetary policy in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using the vector model. correcting the mistake. The study concluded with some recommendations to reduce exchange rate fluctuations.

The impact of globalization on the transport sector: The case of Tunisia

This paper aims to present the theoretical and practical aspects of the impact of globalization on the transport sector in Tunisia. Nowadays, globalization affects the transport sector, making it more dynamic. In this respect, most studies, both internationally and in Tunisia, have focused on maritime transport as it is the mode of transport that is most affected by the globalization phenomenon. Therefore, to expand on these observations, we carried out an econometric study in Tunisia covering the 1976–2016 period based on the error correction model. The findings confirm some of the previous observations and show that international trade, which represents globalization, has the greatest impact on national transport, both in the short and long runs. Therefore, this study suggests that if our country wants to promote the transport sector, it should meet the challenges of globalization through greater economic openness and an environment conducive to foreign direct investment.

An Econometric Study Using Panel Data Model of Factors Affecting Women's Economic Empowerment for Some Countries During the Period (2000-2023)

Objectives: The study aimed to use the analytical and standard method in analyzing the results of the study based on the analysis of factors affecting the economic empowerment of women in some countries during the period (2000-2023). Methods: To investigate the relationships between variables, the Panel Data model has Been Described to express the relationship between the female employment rate as a Dependent variable and women's empowerment indicators as independent variables. The study sample consisted of five countries, including Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, India and South Africa. The data were estimated using three models: the aggregate regression model, the static effects, and the random effects model. Results: The results showed that the fixed effects model is the most appropriate model for this study. Using the statistical program E-views12. Conclusion: The study found the following: It is expected to have an inverse relationship between the female unemployment rate and the female employment rate (FE) - as a dependent variable - and a positive relationship between the female labor force rate and FE. Contrary to expectations, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the female mortality rate and the dependent variable, in addition to the dependent variable not affected by the age dependency ratio of males.

Econometrics case study: Analysis of factors influencing the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province

Background: This research is an econometrics case study aimed at addressing two research questions. Firstly, to provide an overview of the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. Secondly, to identify the factors influencing the poverty rate in the province. The study utilizes the concepts of poverty, provincial minimum wage, Human Development Index (HDI), economic growth, and unemployment rate. Method: Methodologically, the province is chosen as the research location due to its poverty rate that requires attention and its distinctive social, economic, and geographical characteristics. The data used are secondary data, analyzed using multiple linear regression and normality tests. Findings: The findings of this study are as follows. Firstly, the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province is situated between 7°33' LS - 8°12' LS and 110°00' BT - 110°50' BT, with a land area of 3,185.8 km2. The province comprises 4 regencies and 1 municipality. Secondly, the factors influencing the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province are the Human Development Index (HDI) and the unemployment rate. Conclusion: The conclusion is that the poverty rate in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province is influenced by the Human Development Index (HDI) and the unemployment rate. The recommendations that can be given are to increase the HDI and reduce the unemployment rate through various government initiatives such as improving education, creating jobs, and encouraging economic activities. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study identifies factors that influence poverty levels using multiple linear regression. The results show that the Human Development Index (HDI) and poverty rates significantly influence poverty rates in this province.

The FDI and Many Economical Sectors Impact (Oil, Non-Oil) on Bahrain GDP: (An Econometrics Study for Period 1990-2021)

Host countries work to attract foreign direct investment by creating an appropriate investment environment that meets the specifications required by multinational companies across continents, through which they seek to compensate for the deficit in local savings, as well as achieving a tangible increase in annual growth rates of the gross domestic product, as When multinational companies with experience and technology operate in host countries, they must train the local workforce in order to contribute to raising economic growth rates. The Kingdom of Bahrain has attracted foreign direct investment as a complement to local investment by transferring expertise and modern technology necessary to train and develop local cadres technically and technologically., Consequently, job opportunities increase, unemployment rates decrease, and production increases for the Kingdom of Bahrain, as Bahrain has entered the competition to attract foreign direct investment worldwide. Not only that, most of the investment is directed to important economic sectors such as the manufacturing and extractive industries sectors, and even part of the foreign trade sector, and therefore Their study of their impact on the gross domestic product and the analysis of economic relations shows the strength of both the effects of investment and economic sectors side by side in developing the Bahraini economy to keep pace with global changes in the field of energy and economic competition, despite the high progress in the field of investment at the international level that preceded it in this context., Since the investment coming into the Kingdom of Bahrain during the study period is low when compared with countries in the world that attract foreign direct investment, the research aims to measure the direct impact of foreign direct investment and some economic sectors on the gross domestic product using the Eviwes 12 program, and important results were obtained from the estimation.