Modeling Studies Research Articles

Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006-2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study.

To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time. Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk. Australia, 2006-2021. Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group. The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5-83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0-59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5-69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3-46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant. Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.

The costs and benefits of scaling up interventions to prevent poor birth outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

We estimated the benefits and costs of a set of preventive interventions that could be delivered during antenatal care to prevent poor birth outcomes, including small-for-gestational-age and preterm births. We built on the assumptions and analyses underlying the Lancet Series on small vulnerable newborns (SVNs) and extended that work by incorporating more recent data, focusing only on the subset of preventive interventions, and examining a broader range of effects. A primary aim of the study was to provide a framework that decision makers could use to design programmes for women and children. The analyses used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the effects and costs of scaling up the 11 preventive interventions identified in the SVN Series to improve birth outcomes. We used LiST estimates of effects and costs to estimate benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) for two intervention packages (one with interventions proven to improve birth outcomes and one with proven interventions plus interventions with potential to improve birth outcomes) and for the individual interventions in these packages for 80 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Both packages of interventions had BCRs more than 1, with a proven package BCR of 7·3 (IQR 5·3-9·1) and a proven plus potential package BCR of 5·8 (4·4-6·9). We found that in all cases the individual interventions had BCRs more than 1, there was a wide range of BCR values for the different interventions, and the BCR varied depending on package and country. The analyses presented in this Article provide evidence that there are preventive interventions that, if scaled up in LMICs, could have a large effect on child health and provide benefits that greatly exceed the costs. Global Affairs Canada.

The effect on HIV transmission and cost-effectiveness of programmes for female sex workers in East, Central, and Southern Africa: a modelling study

HIV prevalence and incidence has declined in East, Central, and Southern Africa (ECSA), but remains high among female sex workers (FSWs). Sex worker programmes have the potential to considerably increase access to HIV testing, prevention, and treatment. We aimed to quantify these improvements by modelling the potential effect of sex worker programmes at two different intensities on HIV incidence and key health outcomes, and assessed the programmes' potential cost-effectiveness in order to help inform HIV policy decisions. Using a model previously used to review policy decisions in ECSA, we assumed a low-intensity sex worker programme had run from 2010 until 2023; this resulted in care disadvantages among FSWs being reduced, and also increased testing, condom use, and willingness to take pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). After 2023, three policy options were considered: discontinuation, continuation, and a scale-up of the programme to high-intensity, which would have a broader reach, and higher influences on condom use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, testing, and PrEP use. Outputs of the key outcomes (the percentage of FSWs who were diagnosed with HIV, on ART, and virally suppressed; the percentage of FSWs with zero condomless partners, and HIV incidence) were compared in 2030. The maximum cost for a sex worker programme to be cost-effective was calculated over a 50-year time period and in the context of 10 million adults. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health-care perspective; costs and disability-adjusted life-years were both discounted to present US$ values at 3% per annum. Compared with continuing a low-intensity sex worker programme until 2030, discontinuation of the programme was calculated to result in a lower percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 88·75% vs 91·37%; median difference compared to continuation of a low-intensity programme [90% range] 2·03 [-4·49 to 10·98]), a lower percentage of those diagnosed currently taking ART (86·35% vs 88·89%; 2·38 [-3·69 to 13·42]), and a lower percentage of FSWs on ART with viral suppression (87·49% vs 88·96%; 1·17 [-6·81 to 11·53]). Discontinuation of a low-intensity programme also resulted in an increase in HIV incidence among FSWs from 5·06 per 100 person-years (100 p-y; 90% range 0·52 to 22·21) to 4·05 per 100 p-y (0·21 to 21·15). Conversely, comparing a high-intensity sex worker programme until 2030 with discontinuation of the programme resulted in a higher percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 95·81% vs 88·75; median difference compared to discontinuation [90% range] 6·36 [0·60 to 18·63]), on ART (93·93 vs 86.35%; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]), and with viral suppression (93·21% vs 87·49; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]). A high-intensity programme also resulted in HIV incidence in FSWs declining to 2·23 per 100 p-y (0·00 to 14·44), from 5·06 per 100 p-y (0·52 to 22·21) if the programme was discontinued. In the context of 10 million adults over a 50-year time period and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year averted, $34 million per year can be spent for a high-intensity programme to be cost-effective. A sex worker programme, even with low-level interventions, has a positive effect on key outputs for FSWs. A high-intensity programme has a considerably higher effect; HIV incidence among FSW and in the general population can be substantially reduced, and should be considered for implementation by policy makers. Wellcome Trust.

Re-evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in 112 low-income and middle-income countries in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study

Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction. We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses. Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths. The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Performance of an advanced sand constitutive model in modelling soil and soil-structure interaction under seismic excitation

There is a growing number of available advanced soil constitutive models aimed at capturing soil cyclic behaviour and their subsequent use in seismic applications. Nevertheless, detailed validation studies of these soil constitutive models on benchmark experimental works including seismic soil-structure interaction are still rare. This work presents a short validation study of the seismic performance of an advanced elastoplastic sand constitutive model on a boundary value problem including kinematic and inertial soil-structure interaction. The results of the finite element numerical model for the free field and structural responses are compared with the experimental work on a group of piles analysed in a flexible soil container filled with dry sand and subjected to simplified seismic loading. In general, the comparisons show a satisfactory match between the results of the simulations and the experiments, with the exception of the numerical predictions of settlements. The computed results are discussed based on: i) the dominant stress-paths in soil; ii) parametric studies on the settlement evaluation; iii) the origin of the high frequency motion oscillations to simple sinusoidal input motions; all with respect to potential improvements in the formulation of the elastic behaviour of the constitutive model in the future.

COMPUTER-AIDED MOLECULAR MODELING AND DESIGN STUDIES OF SOME N-(4-(DIMETHYL AMINO) PHENYL)-4-METHOXY-3-PROPIONAMIDOBENZAMIDE DERIVATIVES AS NS5B POLYMERASE INHIBITORS

Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a stealthy ailment, and most people are unaware they have it in the early stages. Insilco modeling was used to develop a model with high predictive power for N-(4-(dimethyl amino) phenyl)-4-methoxy-3-propionamidobenzamide inhibitors. The inhibitors were optimized using Density Functional Theory (DFT) based on a notion of B3LYP/6-31G* levels. The genetic function algorithm (GFA) was utilized to create the QSAR models. The best model was chosen based on its statistical fitness using the subsequent measurement parameters: R2trng = 0.828181, R2adj = 0.800468, Q2cv = 0.734795, R2test = 0.7028, and LOF = 0.613985, led to its selection and publication. The model underwent additional assessments, including the Y-scrambling test, and applicability domain, and was considered to have statistical significance. The docking results demonstrate that compound 17 has the greatest inhibitory effect on NS5B-polymerase of any drug in the dataset. Using this compound as a template, novel anti-hepatitis C compounds were developed by including a few beneficial substituents. The docking results of the proposed compounds yielded a high MolDock score (−152.12), indicating effective binding to the target's active sites. Two comparable compounds (SBD4 and SBD3) were shown to be superior to the food drug administration (FDA) approved medication, revibirin/pegylated interferon. The chemicals were determined to be orally accessible after passing Lipinski's criteria, a drug similarity test. Furthermore, the synthesized compounds were found to have favorable pharmacokinetic (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity) properties. In conclusion, using the QSAR model, a model with excellent prediction power for certain Biaryl amide inhibitors was constructed. The model was validated and determined to have good internal and external assessment criteria. According to the docking results, compound 17 inhibits NS5B-polymerase the most out of the compounds in the dataset. Furthermore, the compounds' oral bioavailability met drug-like standards. The ultimate goal of this research is to contribute to the development of new therapeutic agents for the treatment of HCV infections, addressing the pressing need for effective antiviral medications.

Eco-friendly Synthesis of Indole Conjugated Chromeno[d]Pyrimidines as Anti-cancer Agents and their Molecular Modelling Studies

Introduction: Many medicinally active new chemical entities depend on indole conjugated chromeno[d]pyrimidine derivatives as a building block. The synthesis of 4-(1H-indol-3-yl)-3,4- dihydro-1H-chromeno[4,3-d]pyrimidine-2,5-dione 4 were achieved in the current study by treating 4- hydroxy-2H-chromen-2-one 1, indole aldehydes 2, and urea/thiourea 3 in the presence of L-proline. Methods: By adopting the above protocol, we were able to synthesize eight compounds, i.e. 4-(1Hindol- 3-yl)-3,4-dihydro-1H-chromeno[4,3-d]pyrimidine-2,5-diones (4a-4h), in the presence of Lproline as a catalyst in ethanol as solvent for 2-3 hours at 70-75°C with decent yields of 80-85%, and their structures were ascertained by various spectral techniques. They were further screened for their potentiality to inhibit cancer growth in HepG2 and MDA-MD-231 cells. Results: The scope of the synthesis of biological relevant Indole conjugated Chromeno[ d]Pyrimidines by three-component reaction (MCRs) process was investigated. The most optimised conditions obtained were 0.3 eq of L-proline for 2 hours at 70-75°C which gave the best yield (85%). The few advantages of this newly developed method are excellent yields, no metal catalyst, less toxic solvents, simple workup no chromatographic column purifications. On further screening for their anticancer activities, out of all, the compound 4b displayed noteworthy cytotoxicity with IC50 values of 8.1 and 9.2 μM against HepG2 and MDA-MD-231, respectively. Additionally, in silico studies also supported that compound 4b had favourable binding energy (-7.8 kcal/mol) when compared to the co-crystal ligand (LS5) in inhibiting the human cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) protein. Conclusion: In conclusion, we have developed a simple, convenient, and efficient method for the synthesis of structurally diverse indole conjugated chromeno[d]pyrimidine analogues in the presence of L-proline as catalyst in ethanol as solvent with good yields. Further, the in vitro cytotoxic studies against HepG2 and MDA-MD-231 cells demonstrated that the synthesized compounds had good to reasonable activity, except for compound 4d.

Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Asymmetries in a Tilt-Following Perspective

Abstract Previous observations and modeling studies showed that tropical cyclones (TCs) in a sheared environment develop an asymmetric boundary layer (BL). While the relationship between the BL asymmetries and environmental shear has been demonstrated, the exact cause of these BL asymmetries and the phase relationship between them are less well understood. In this study, we examine the dynamical processes leading to the asymmetric structure of the TC BL in a sheared environment using idealized, convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show that the emergence of the BL asymmetries is closely linked to the TC vortex tilt and rainband processes. Specifically, stratiform diabatic processes in the downtilt-left region result in midlevel descending inflow, which brings midtropospheric, low-θE air toward the BL and forms a surface cold pool in the downtilt-left quadrant. This descending inflow also advects high absolute angular momentum inward, redistributing the vertical vorticity and causing a storm-scale tangential wind acceleration within the downtilt-left quadrant. As the BL low-θE air advances inward, it becomes supergradient and decelerates radially, forming BL outflow in the uptilt-left quadrant. The outflow advects positive relative vorticity uptilt, forming an elliptic BL vorticity and circulation structure. As the tilted TC vortex and the accompanying rainband precess cyclonically over time, the above sequence of events and the resultant BL asymmetries also precess cyclonically, maintaining a quasi-stationary configuration relative to the vortex tilt. These results suggest that the primary organizing factor of the boundary layer asymmetries is the tilted vortex structure and not strictly the environmental shear direction.

Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study

Individuals who were formerly incarcerated have high tuberculosis incidence, but are generally not considered among the risk groups eligible for tuberculosis prevention. We investigated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection screening and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for individuals who were formerly incarcerated in Brazil. Using published evidence for Brazil, we constructed a Markov state transition model estimating tuberculosis-related health outcomes and costs among individuals who were formerly incarcerated, by simulating transitions between health states over time. The analysis compared tuberculosis infection screening and TPT, to no screening, considering a combination of M tuberculosis infection tests and TPT regimens. We quantified health effects as reductions in tuberculosis cases, tuberculosis deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We assessed costs from a tuberculosis programme perspective. We report intervention cost-effectiveness as the incremental costs per DALY averted, and tested how results changed across subgroups of the target population. Compared with no intervention, an intervention incorporating tuberculin skin testing and treatment with 3 months of isoniazid and rifapentine would avert 31 (95% uncertainty interval 14-56) lifetime tuberculosis cases and 4·1 (1·4-5·8) lifetime tuberculosis deaths per 1000 individuals, and cost US$242 per DALY averted. All test and regimen combinations were cost-effective compared with no screening. Younger age, longer incarceration, and more recent prison release were each associated with significantly greater health benefits and more favourable cost-effectiveness ratios, although the intervention was cost-effective for all subgroups examined. M tuberculosis infection screening and TPT for individuals who were formerly incarcerated appears cost-effective, and would provide valuable health gains. National Institutes of Health. For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Shear-Wave Velocity Data Assists Modeling for Offshore Windfarm Development

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper OTC 35354, “Pseudo-3D Underwater Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves for Offshore Windfarm Development,” by Stephan Unterseh and Luis McArthur, TotalEnergies, and Edouard Mouton, SismOcean. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Copyright 2024 Offshore Technology Conference. _ In the course of a research and development (R&D) project dedicated to quantitative ground modeling, underwater multichannel analysis surface-wave (UMASW) data were acquired within an offshore windfarm area currently in development in the North Sea. The goal of the project described in the complete paper was to test the added value of the shear wave velocity (Vs) interpreted from the UMASW, particularly as a propagation tool of geotechnical information. While UMASW, together with seismic refraction, is regularly used to characterize the ground for burial or trenching purposes, it appears also to bring valuable design parameters for offshore wind turbine foundations. Introduction To investigate the value of Vs in the performance of quantitative ground modeling studies, an internal R&D initiative was launched aimed at acquiring Vs data and the associated uncertainties of foundation depth of an offshore windfarm currently in development. These data will be tested at a later stage for the propagation of geotechnical parameters used in foundation design. The acquisition consisted of obtaining Vs data through UMASW methodologies around two distinct geotechnical boreholes and along a corridor tying the two areas. The UMASW commonly is used in combination with seismic refraction to perform burial assessment analysis of cable or pipeline or to characterize ground conditions before performance of horizontal deviated drilling. Thus, the data acquisition did not require extensive hardware development. A unique pseudo-3D processing technique nevertheless was implemented to allow for 3D data visualization and ground characterization. Site Conditions The selected site lies in the North Sea in water depths ranging from 20 to 30 m. The area was first investigated with standard geophysical techniques. Preliminary geotechnical investigation included 6-m-deep vibrocores and 60-m-deep drilled boreholes, with alternating cone penetration tests and push sampling and coring. P-S logging also was performed at key geotechnical locations to gather 1D primary wave velocities (Vp) and Vs. The seabed generally consists of a thin cover of Holocene dense sand, occasionally with boulders, overlying quaternary subglacial formation deposits, including moraine, gravelly sand, and clays of variable thicknesses. The bedrock is generally Jurassic and includes dense sand; hard clay; weak claystone; and, locally, strong limestone bands. The test locations were selected within the coverage of the geophysical data set in areas where variable lithologies occur and where the seabed was found free of boulders and outcrops because these are detrimental to UMASW acquisition. The lithology of the two boreholes performed within the test area is indicated in Table 1 of the complete paper.

Machine learning approaches to predict the execution time of the meteorological simulation software COSMO

AbstractPredicting the execution time of weather forecast models is a complex task, since these models are usually performed on High Performance Computing systems that require large computing capabilities. Indeed, a reliable prediction can imply several benefits, by allowing for an improved planning of the model execution, a better allocation of available resources, and the identification of possible anomalies. However, to make such predictions is usually hard, since there is a scarcity of datasets that benchmark the existing meteorological simulation models. In this work, we focus on the runtime predictions of the execution of the COSMO (COnsortium for SMall-scale MOdeling) weather forecasting model used at the Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Regional Agency for the Environment and Energy Prevention Emilia-Romagna. We show how a plethora of Machine Learning approaches can obtain accurate runtime predictions of this complex model, by designing a new well-defined benchmark for this application task. Indeed, our contribution is twofold: 1) the creation of a large public dataset reporting the runtime of COSMO run under a variety of different configurations; 2) a comparative study of ML models, which greatly outperform the current state-of-practice used by the domain experts. This data collection represents an essential initial benchmark for this application field, and a useful resource for analyzing the model performance: better accuracy in runtime predictions could help facility owners to improve job scheduling and resource allocation of the entire system; while for a final user, a posteriori analysis could help to identify anomalous runs.

Soil classification and crop cultivation prediction: a comparative study of machine learning models

Soil classification and crop cultivation prediction: a comparative study of machine learning models

Combination therapy with IV fosfomycin for adult patients with serious Gram-negative infections: a review of the literature.

Treatment of patients with serious infections due to resistant Gram-negative bacteria remains highly problematic and has prompted clinicians to use existing antimicrobial agents in innovative ways. One approach gaining increased therapeutic use is combination therapy with IV fosfomycin. This article reviews the preclinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) infection model and clinical data surrounding the use of combination therapy with IV fosfomycin for the treatment of serious infections caused by resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Data from dynamic in vitro and animal infection model studies of highly resistant Enterobacterales and non-lactose fermenters are positive and suggest IV fosfomycin in combination with a β-lactam, polymyxin or aminoglycoside produces a synergistic effect that rivals or surpasses that of other aminoglycoside- or polymyxin-containing regimens. Clinical studies performed to date primarily have involved patients with pneumonia and/or bacteraemia due to Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa or Acinetobacter baumannii. Overall, the observed success rates with fosfomycin combination regimens were consistent with those reported for other combination regimens commonly used to treat these patients. In studies in which direct treatment comparisons can be derived, the results suggest that patients who received fosfomycin combination therapy had similar or improved outcomes compared with other therapies and combinations, especially when it was used in combination with a β-lactam that (1) targets PBP-3 and (2) has exceptional stability in the presence of β-lactamases. Collectively, the data indicate that combination therapy with IV fosfomycin should be considered as a potential alternative to aminoglycoside or polymyxin combinations for patients with antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative infections when benefits outweigh risks.

In silico, in vitro, and in vivo acute and sub-acute toxicity profiling of whole plant methanol extract of Equisetum diffusum D. Don from the sub-Himalayan West Bengal, India, having ethnobotanical uses.

Equisetum diffusum D. Don commonly known as 'Himalayan horsetail', has been traditionally used in the treatment of back pain, bone fracture and dislocation, and arthritis by various tribal communities of India. Our previous study confirmed the anti-inflammatory efficacy of the plant through in silico, in vitro, and in vivo model studies. Therefore, the current research is focused on safety dose evaluation for the first-time of the whole-plant methanol extract (EDME) of E. diffusum through appropriate in silico, in vitro, and in vivo approaches. The whole plant, along with its rhizomes, was collected, and the methanol extract was prepared. The in silico ADMET study was performed to predict the pharmacokinetics profile and toxicity of all the identified phyto-compounds of EDME previously screened by GC-MS study. In vitro cytotoxicity study of EDME was performed using two cell lines: kidney (HEK293) and liver (Huh7) cell lines. The in vivo toxicity study of EDME was validated by the acute toxicity (OECD 423, 2002) and sub-acute toxicity assays (OECD 407, 2008) in the Wistar Albino rat model. The in silico ADMET study of all 47 bioactives predicted good pharmacokinetic and low toxicity profiles. In vitro cytotoxicity showed higher IC50 values of EDME viz., 672 ± 15.7μg/mL and 1698 ± 6.54μg/mL for both kidney (HEK293) and liver (Huh7) cell lines, respectively, which were considered as low-toxic. Based on acute oral toxicity, the LD50 value of the extract was considered "non-toxic" up to a feeding range of 2000mg/kg of body weight. The regular consumption of the extract for an extended period (28days) was also qualified as safe based on the body and organ weight, hematological, biochemical, and histoarchitecture results in the sub-acute toxicity assay. The detailed in silico, in vitro, in vivo (acute and sub-acute oral toxicity) studies gave us a new insight to the safety dose evaluation of Equisetum diffusum, which may serve as a reliable documentation for undertaking the experimental validation of the ethnobotanical uses of the plant which would help in the field of drug development for the treatment of inflammation related complications.

Innovative Bistable Composites for Aerospace and High-Stress Applications: Integrating Soft and Hard Materials in Experimental, Modeling, and Simulation Studies

Innovative Bistable Composites for Aerospace and High-Stress Applications: Integrating Soft and Hard Materials in Experimental, Modeling, and Simulation Studies

Renovation of Collective Rental Housing in Shenzhen's Urban Villages: Model, Resident Satisfaction, and Implications-A Case Study of Yuanfen New Village in Shenzhen City

Renovation of Collective Rental Housing in Shenzhen's Urban Villages: Model, Resident Satisfaction, and Implications-A Case Study of Yuanfen New Village in Shenzhen City

In silico identification of dual HDAC8 and MMP9 inhibitors by pharmacophore modeling, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulation studies for development of antitumour agent

In silico identification of dual HDAC8 and MMP9 inhibitors by pharmacophore modeling, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulation studies for development of antitumour agent

Unveiling the complexity of L2 learners’ emotions and emotion regulation: A retrodictive qualitative modeling study

AbstractSecond/foreign language (L2) learners often go through a gamut of conflicting experiences embedded within their emotional system, which can be managed through emotion regulation (ER). Motivated by complex dynamic systems theory (CDST), this qualitative study aimed to explore the signature dynamics of positive and negative emotions among six Iranian adolescent English language learners. Additionally, the study investigated how learners manage their emotions in the L2 classroom. Using the CDST as its main theoretical framework and retrodictive qualitative modeling as its main methodology, the current investigation revealed that the learners’ emotional systems were mediated by internal and external contexts, as well as dynamicity. It was further discovered that ER strategies were driven by multiple simultaneous factors influencing emotional systems and the adaptability of those systems to new situations. In the end, we discuss how policymakers, teachers, and researchers can adopt the findings to provide some well‐needed support for classroom‐based L2 learners.

Trends in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2021: A modelling study.

We aimed to assess: (i) trends in alcohol-specific - that is, fully attributable - morbidity and mortality in the German adult population aged 15-69 between 2000 and 2021; and (ii) changes in alcohol-attributable disease burden - that is, fully and partially alcohol-attributable categories - for 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2021. Morbidity data was pulled from hospitalisation and rehabilitation statistics and mortality data was pulled from the causes of death registry. Alcohol use, adjusted for unrecorded consumption, was estimated using the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse and triangulated with per capita consumption from annual sales data. For major disease categories, alcohol-attributable fractions were estimated for males and females by age groups (15-29, 30-49, 50-69 years) using the comparative risk assessment methodology. For males and females, the age-standardised rate of alcohol-specific morbidity peaked in 2012 and decreased thereafter showing a steep decline from 2019 to 2021. The rates of alcohol-specific mortality decreased constantly from 2000 to 2019 but increased from 2019 to 2021. Compared to 2006 the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates in males and females were lower in 2021. For both sexes, the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates and the proportions of morbidity/mortality rates relative to all-cause morbidity/mortality decreased between 2006 and 2021. The declines in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality are in line with decreases in consumption and signal that the importance of alcohol in health service utilisation and mortality has weakened. Sex ratios in morbidity and mortality do not indicate a strong converging trend.

Continuous exercise training rescues hippocampal long-term potentiation in the VPA rat model of Autism: Uncovering sex-specific effects

Long‐term potentiation (LTP) impairment has been reported in many studies of autistic models. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of interval training (IT) and continuous training (CT) exercises on LTP in the hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG) neurons of valproic acid (VPA) rat model of autism. To induce an autism-like model, pregnant rats were injected 500 mg/kg NaVPA (intraperitoneal) on the embryonic day 12.5. IT and CT aerobic exercises started on postnatal day 56 in the offspring. Four weeks after IT and/or CT exercises, the offspring were urethane-anesthetized and placed into a stereotaxic apparatus for surgery, electrode implantation, and field potential recording. In the DG region, excitatory post synaptic potentials (EPSP) slope and population spike (PS) amplitude were measured. Sex differences in LTP were evident for control rats but not for VPA-exposed offspring. LTP was significantly smaller in VPA-exposed male offspring compared with control male rats. In contrast to males, there was no difference between VPA-exposed female offspring and control female rats. Interestingly, we observed a sex difference in the response to exercise between VPA-exposed male and female offspring. CT exercise training (but not IT) increased LTP in VPA-exposed male offspring. Both IT and CT exercise trainings had no effect on intact LTP in VPA-exposed female offspring. Our work suggests that there may be differences in the benefits of exercise interventions based on sex, and CT exercise training could be more beneficial for LTP improvements.