Structural Reliability Analysis Research Articles

Structural Reliability Analysis Using Generalized Distribution Reconstruction Method with Novel Improvements

Structural Reliability Analysis Using Generalized Distribution Reconstruction Method with Novel Improvements

A fast analysis algorithm for structural vibration modal sensitivity

Vibration modal sensitivity analysis has a wide range of applications in structural optimization design, model correction, fault detection, and reliability analysis. The existing methods for calculating modal sensitivity mainly include modal superposition method, Nelson’s method, and some improved algorithms derived from them. However, the existing algorithms have the drawback of low computational efficiency when applied to modal sensitivity analysis of the large-scale structures. In view of this, the objective of this work is to develop a fast modal sensitivity analysis method that can more efficiently calculate the modal sensitivity of the large structures with thousands of degrees of freedom. This new sensitivity analysis technique integrates Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury formula, subspace iteration and forward-difference to achieve the goal of fast calculation. The innovations of the proposed method mainly include the following aspects. Firstly, the Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury formula is used to quickly calculate the perturbed flexibility matrix due to the minor modification in the structure. Then, the perturbed flexibility matrix is introduced into the subspace iteration method to calculate the perturbed modal parameters. Finally, the forward-difference algorithm is used to calculate the modal sensitivity. Two numerical examples are used to verify the superiority of the proposed modal sensitivity algorithm. Taking the 1952-bar structure as an example, the calculation time of the proposed algorithm is only 8.3 % and 18.2 % of that of the existing approximate modal superposition method and the improved Nelson’s method, respectively. In terms of calculation accuracy, the results obtained by the proposed method are exactly the same as the exact solution when the perturbation scale is set to 10−5. It is found that the proposed method significantly reduces computation time compared to the existing methods on the premise that the calculation accuracy is basically unchanged.

A neural network copula function approach for solving joint basic probability assignment in structural reliability analysis

AbstractApplying evidence theory to structural reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty, it is necessary to consider the correlation of evidence variables. Among them, solving the joint basic probability assignment (BPA) of the evidence variables is a crucial link. In this study, a solution method of joint BPA based on neural network copula function is proposed. This method is to automatically construct copula function through neural network, which avoids the process of selecting the optimal copula function. Firstly, the neural network copula function is constructed based on the sample set of evidence variables. Then, the expression for solving the joint BPA using the neural network copula function is derived through vectors. Furthermore, the expression is used to map the marginal BPA of evidence variables to joint BPA, thus realizing the solution of joint BPA. Finally, the effectiveness of this method is verified by three examples. The results show that the neural network copula function describes the data distribution better than the optimal copula function selected by the traditional method. In addition, there is actually an error in solving the reliability intervals using the traditional optimal copula function method, whereas the results of this paper's neural network copula function method are more accurate and better for decision making.

Time-dependent reliability analysis for structures under multilevel loads based on fatigue damage theory

This paper proposes an efficient method to evaluate the time-dependent fatigue reliability of structures under complex multilevel loads using a finite set of fatigue test data obtained under single-level loading conditions. The method preserves the simplicity of linear damage accumulation theory while considering the interactions among multiple load levels and the influence of load sequence on reliability. Leveraging the linear damage rule, a cumulative damage probability model was established under single-level constant amplitude loading. This model incorporates a fatigue life degradation function to characterize the cumulative damage effect of load cycles and corrects the fatigue reliability curve under single-level constant amplitude loading. By employing the principle of fatigue damage equivalence, the method determines the damage equivalence at the load switching point using the damage curve method, enabling the conversion of equivalent reliability under multilevel loads. The proposed method was validated by combining the test data obtained under three working conditions, including two-level loads loading, load blocks loading, and changing loads loading. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately and efficiently evaluate the time-dependent fatigue reliability under different types of multilevel loads, using only a limited set of fatigue life data under single constant amplitude loads.

A layer assigned probability space partition method for structural small failure probability problem

The Physical Synthesis Method (PSM) stands out as a robust framework for conducting structural reliability analyses due to its clear conceptual foundation. However, this approach often necessitates significant computational resources when addressing scenarios with small failure probabilities. In response to this challenge, this study introduces a layer assigned probability space partition method designed to identify pivotal points based on the ultimate bearing capacity failure criterion of structural components within the PSM framework. Drawing inspiration from Harbitz’s β-sphere, this method effectively utilizes the minimum reliability index of components to discern essential representative points within the probability space, thus streamlining computations. The efficacy of this approach is showcased through two case studies: a simply supported beam and a six-story reinforced concrete frame. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed method, when integrated with PSM, exhibits a substantial enhancement in efficiency compared to the conventional Monte Carlo method. Besides, under equivalent computational resources, it achieves superior computational accuracy compared to the importance sampling method, particularly in scenarios with small failure probabilities. Furthermore, by introducing the notion of a common safe domain, this method addresses challenges in structural reliability analyses involving multiple failure surfaces.

Optimization of reliability and sensitivity analysis for flange structures

The study delves into the reliability-driven optimization design of the flanges, drawing from reliability design theory, advanced optimization methodologies, and comprehensive sensitivity analysis. Flanges, integral to mechanical systems, demand precise design. Reliability design theory emphasizes consistent operation under diverse conditions. A novel approach to the flange-specific reliability sensitivity analysis method is central to this research. It promises to revolutionize flange design. By understanding the first two moments of core random parameters, we expedite reliability-driven optimization designs for mechanical connections. The programs enhance our approach, streamlining the pursuit of reliability-driven designs and providing rapid, accurate sensitivity analysis data for mechanical connections. This data offers critical insights into parameter influence, enabling targeted design adjustments. In summary, this research represents a significant advancement in mechanical engineering. By integrating reliability design theory with cutting-edge methodologies, it promises to enhance the quality and reliability of mechanical connections, meeting the rigorous demands of contemporary engineering applications. This holistic approach will play a pivotal role in the future of mechanical component design.

Robust active learning framework for structural reliability analysis using uncertainty quantification and flexible meta-model

Achieving highly accurate results in assessing structural reliability with reduced time complexity is an active and challenging engineering topic, especially when working with complex real-world structures. One of the most prominent methods addressing this issue is AK-MCS, which adaptively updates the Kriging-based surrogate model for forecasting structures’ behavior. While the Kriging model’s performance may be limited compared to multiple new machine learning models, it remains dominant in reliability analysis thanks to its distinctive ability to assess uncertainty along with prediction results. This ability is necessary to determine the potential candidate sample in the active learning procedure. This study proposes a novel method, dubbed AUQ-meta, that allows us to leverage the recent powerful machine learning models while still being able to produce uncertainty quantification. The AUQ-meta method consists of three main components: a machine learning-based predictor, a quantile regression module for uncertainty assessment, and an adaptive reliability analysis process. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are consistently validated through six examples with high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time-varying elements. In addition, comparison and sensitivity studies are carried out, providing further insights into the AUQ-meta method’s operational mechanism.

An efficient analysis method for system reliability of semi-rigid base asphalt pavement structure based on direct probability integral method

The structural design parameters of asphalt pavement inherently possess randomness. Reliability theory aids in considering the stochastic nature of these parameters in asphalt pavement design. However, as the number of considered random factors increases, the complexity of reliability calculation models and the consumption of computational resources also significantly escalate. To analyze the structural reliability of semi-rigid base asphalt pavements more efficiently and accurately, a method combining Weighted Kernel Density Estimation (Weighted-KDE) with Direct Probability Integration Method (DPIM) using sampling strategies was employed. Furthermore, integrating the equivalent extreme value principle, an asphalt pavement structural system reliability analysis method was proposed, considering multiple failure mode correlations. The numerical solution steps of this method are also outlined. Based on the typical semi-rigid asphalt pavement structure in China, this study utilized the elastic layer system method (the program Apbi) and a computational program developed in MATLAB to compare the efficiency and accuracy of calculating reliability between DPIM and the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The computational outcomes indicate that, under the premise of selecting 18 random parameters, DPIM can achieve the required accuracy in assessing the reliability of asphalt pavement structure and system reliability. Analyzing how the number of samples affects the computational results reveals that using weighted-KDE and DPIM only needs a few hundred sample points to limit the relative error within 4 %, compared to the results obtained from 105 samples in MCS. The research findings demonstrate that DPIM incorporating the principle of equivalent extreme value events can serve as an efficient analytical approach for assessing the system reliability of asphalt pavement structures characterized by more complex failure modes.

Consequences of the Improved Wave Statistics on a Hull Girder Reliability of Double Hull Oil Tankers

This paper investigates the change in hull girder failure probabilities and partial safety factors caused by the implementation of the new procedure for direct computation of wave loads recommended by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS). Differences between new and previous procedures are primarily related to the different associated scatter diagrams, and secondarily due to the assumptions on wave spectrum, wave energy spreading, and ship speed. This study performs a comparative structural reliability analysis of the global longitudinal bending of five oil tankers of different sizes between two procedures for wave load computation. Firstly, failure probabilities are compared, and secondly, modified partial safety factors are proposed, resulting in similar failure probabilities according to two separate procedures. It is found that implementation of the new revision of the IACS procedure for direct computation of wave loads results in a reduction of the minimum required ultimate vertical bending capacity of a ship hull by 10%. In addition to the novel investigation of the safety of oil tankers using a revised wave scatter diagram, this study offers a new rapid method for calculation of extreme vertical wave bending moments based on the regression of the parameters of the Weibull function, used for the long-term probability distribution of wave-induced loads.

Reliability analysis and optimization design of magnetic fluid dynamic seal shell structure under thermal/mechanical load

In order to study the reliability of Magnetic fluid dynamic seal shell structure under thermal/mechanical load, the improving cooling structure, calculating fuzzy fatigue reliability, and collaborative optimization design of fatigue reliability and lightweight are studied in this paper. The temperature model of the shell structure under four temperature conditions is established to analyze the influence of the thermal deformation caused by excessive local temperature. The cooling structure is improved, and the maximum temperature under the maximum temperature condition is reduced by 40.154 °C. For the sake of calculating the reliability of the new shell structure, a strength analysis model under thermal/mechanical load is built, and the fuzzy fatigue reliability function is obtained based on Latin hypercube sampling and the second-order response surface method. Four kinds of reliability are acquired by coding the functional functions and four kinds of membership functions with MATLAB, but all of them are lower than 90 % of the industrial requirements. To improve the reliability of the new shell structure and carry out the anti-fatigue lightweight design at the same time, an approximate model was constructed based on the interval analysis method and second-order response surface method for analysis. The accuracy of the approximate model was verified by re-sampling and finite element analysis. Based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm, the optimal solution is determined. The optimization results show that the stress target value is reduced by 19.3 %, the weight target value is reduced by 3 %, and the fuzzy fatigue reliability reaches 94.65 %, 94.58 %, 93.89 %, and 96.31 % respectively. A new cooling structure of the Magnetic fluid dynamic seal is obtained and the maximum temperature is reduced. Moreover, the reliability of the new shell structure under thermal/mechanical load coupling is improved.

The effects of gradient index, aspect ratio, porosity, and boundary conditions on the buckling behavior of functionally graded porous beams: A k-out-of-n system reliability analysis

Functionally graded materials are a class of multifunctional materials that exhibit spatial variation in composition and microstructure. This deliberate variation is designed to effectively manage and manipulate changes in thermal, structural, or functional qualities within the material. The current study explores the system reliability of functionally graded porous beams (FGPB) subjected to buckling, focusing on the interplay of gradient index (0, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10), aspect ratio (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35), porosity index (0, 0.1 and 0.2) and boundary conditions (simply supported, clamped–clamped and clamped-free), with a particular emphasis on the k-out-of-n system reliability assessment, employing three distinct methods such as Evolutionary, GRG Non-linear, and Lagrangian. The results show the system's sensitivity to changes in distribution parameters, with the Lagrangian method being the most robust and stable. The 10-out-of-12 system reliability analysis demonstrates that aspect ratio and even porosity distribution are reliable, while uneven porosity is not. This study enhances structural reliability analysis in FGPBs, enhancing system reliability considerations and paving the way for further advancements in structural reliability analysis.

Structural reliability analysis under stochastic seismic excitations and multidimensional limit state based on gamma mixture model and copula function

A novel method for analyzing the reliability of structures under non-stationary stochastic seismic excitations, considering the combined effect of multiple structural demand extreme values, is proposed. The spectral representation method is employed to establish a non-stationary stochastic seismic excitation model, and based on the theory of first-passage probability, multiple integral formulas for seismic reliability under multidimensional limit states are derived. The extreme value distribution is established using the Gamma mixture model (GMM). The equations for estimating the model parameters are derived based on both fractional moments and moment-generating functions, while the determination of the number of gamma distribution components is guided by the probability distribution and statistical characteristics of the samples. The joint probability density function (JPDF) for multiple demand extreme values is established by incorporating copula functions to account for correlation, and the fitting accuracy of different copula functions is assessed. The proposed method is illustrated using reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The results demonstrate that the fitting accuracy of extreme value distribution can be enhanced by adjusting the number of gamma distribution components in the GMM, which exhibits high accuracy in fitting both the main and tail regions. The presence of correlation can induce variations in the JPDF, thereby exerting an influence on the failure probability. Consequently, disregarding correlation is not conducive to reliability analysis.

Meta-model based sequential importance sampling method for structural reliability analysis under high dimensional small failure probability

Reliability analysis poses a significant challenge for complex structures with stringent reliability requirements. While Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) and Subset Simulation (SUS) have proven highly effective in addressing high-dimensional problems with small failure probabilities, the computational burden of mechanical simulations remains substantial due to the time-consuming nature of numerical simulation processes. Consequently, this paper introduces a novel approach, denoted as AK-SIS, which combines SIS with Kriging metamodeling specifically designed to address computational challenges associated with small failure probabilities. The fundamental principle of this approach involves utilizing AK-MCS technology (Echard et al., 2011) [1] as a precursor to the SIS approach to initially generate metamodels. These metamodels are then employed in lieu of performance functions in subsequent steps, significantly reducing the number of function calls required to simulate complex engineering problems when applying SIS techniques directly. By inheriting the advantages of SIS, AK-SIS has demonstrated its suitability for reliability analysis in scenarios involving high-dimensional spaces and small fault probabilities. Furthermore, AK-SIS is not limited by the shape of the failure domain, eliminates the need to solve the design point, and is particularly well-suited for analyzing reliability in cases of discontinuous failure domains, multiple failure domains, as well as complex failure domains and rare events. The efficacy of AK-SIS is substantiated through rigorous evaluation encompassing nonlinear, high-dimensional examples, and an engineering application. These empirical validations collectively contribute to a robust methodological framework for reliability analysis of intricate structures characterized by stringent reliability requirements.

Probability density evolution method based stochastic simulation of near-fault pulse-like ground motions

Quantifying the near-fault effect and establishing a reasonable model of near-fault pulse-like ground motions are particularly important for seismic design of structures in near-fault regions. Given the pronounced randomness associated with earthquakes, this study first proposes a novel stochastic model of near-fault pulse-like ground motions by combining the improved finite-fault model (IFFM) and the multivariate copula-based velocity-pulse model (CVPM). Further, a probability density evolution method (PDEM) based stochastic simulation method is developed, by which the model parameters can be determined in a unified probability space so as to ensure the consistency of two independent models. For illustrative purposes, the observed records collected from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake are used to generate new stochastic ground motions set. Two ground motions sets based on classical stochastic simulation methods are also presented for comparison. Numerical results show that the proposed method for stochastic simulation of near-fault pulse-like ground motions is reliable; the statistics of peak ground accelerations and spectral characteristics of simulated samples are consistent with station records. Besides, the proposed method accommodates the noteworthy randomness and proportion consistency of components associated with near-fault pulse-like ground motions, making it suitable for the stochastic response and reliability analysis of seismic structures in near-fault regions. This superiority is challenging to classical stochastic simulation methods that lack reasonable consideration of randomness and correlation associated with model parameters.

Seismic Reliability Analysis of an Excavation Slope Based on Direct Probability Integral Method

China, situated in the circum-Pacific seismic belt, experiences frequent seismic activity and faces diverse geological conditions, making structural stability of paramount importance, especially under seismic conditions. The majority of current earthquake generation methods do not consider the nonstationary nature of earthquakes. This paper introduces a spectral representation-random function model for generating nonstationary earthquakes, effectively simulating stochastic seismic ground motion. Furthermore, traditional slope stability analysis methods are deterministic and incapable of providing probabilistic assessments of slope instability. Therefore, this paper proposes a unified framework for static and dynamic structural reliability analysis based on the direct probability integration method, quantifying the impact of stochastic seismic ground motion on the dynamic reliability of slope stability. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to an excavation slope in Nanjing, using sliding displacement and safety factors as evaluation criteria to study the reliability of the slope under the influence of stochastic seismic events.

A mixed uncertain structural reliability analysis method considering random and convex set variables with correlation

AbstractIn this paper, a mixed model reliability analysis method is put forward for the problem of assessing the reliability of complex engineering structures containing both random and convex aggregate variables. By integrating the ellipsoidal model with correlation and the interval model, the uncertainty region characterized by the ellipsoidal model with correlation is optimized with full consideration of the limited amount of engineering structure sample data, and the risk region represented by the reliability model is redefined, a new mixed reliability assessment criterion is established, and the minimum safe nonprobability reliability index of the structure is built. A key reference is offered by the safety limit diagram of constant reliability indexes set for the first time for the optimal design of engineering structure reliability. The proposed mixed reliability model is compared and analyzed with three classical models. The sensitivity of nonprobability reliability indexes, influenced by random variable parameters and correlation coefficients, is analyzed. This verification confirms that the new reliability model not only provides an accurate assessment of engineering structures' reliability but also lowers the computational demands of engineering design. In this paper, aero‐engine blades and wind turbine blades are taken as examples to expound the validity of the reliability model built using this method and its importance to the structural safety analysis of actual engineering.

Structural reliability analysis with extremely small failure probabilities: A quasi-Bayesian active learning method

The concept of Bayesian active learning has recently been introduced from machine learning to structural reliability analysis. Although several specific methods have been successfully developed, significant efforts are still needed to fully exploit their potential and to address existing challenges. This work proposes a quasi-Bayesian active learning method, called ‘Quasi-Bayesian Active Learning Cubature’, for structural reliability analysis with extremely small failure probabilities. The method is established based on a cleaver use of the Bayesian failure probability inference framework. To reduce the computational burden associated with the exact posterior variance of the failure probability, we propose a quasi posterior variance instead. Then, two critical elements for Bayesian active learning, namely the stopping criterion and the learning function, are developed subsequently. The stopping criterion is defined based on the quasi posterior coefficient of variation of the failure probability, whose numerical solution scheme is also tailored. The learning function is extracted from the quasi posterior variance, with the introduction of an additional parameter that allows multi-point selection and hence parallel distributed processing. By testing on four numerical examples, it is empirically shown that the proposed method can assess extremely small failure probabilities with desired accuracy and efficiency.

An active learning Kriging model with approximating parallel strategy for structural reliability analysis

With the ever-increasing complexity of engineering problems, active learning functions fused with Kriging models are receiving significant attention and are extensively applied in various reliability analysis methods. It is argued unfavorably that the existing fusion-type methods usually obtain only a single optimal sample point during model updating process. Meanwhile, the information of the used sample points is not sufficiently utilized. To these gaps, this study proposes an adaptive Kriging reliability analysis method based on an approximate parallel computing strategy, namely AP-AK for short. To start with, a new Kriging model update strategy is proposed, where the first selected sample points help to introduce the intermediate model and further search for optimal points closer to the limit state surface. An improved learning function is then proposed to limit the locations of points based on the information of used sample points. The new function is characterized by setting the acceptance and rejection domains of the sample points, which prevents computational waste incurred by local sample point aggregation. Superior performance of the AP-AK method is demonstrated against other Kriging-based methods through five numerical cases and one solid attitude orbit control engine case. The comparison results show that the proposed method exhibits high efficiency and robustness for solving complex reliability analysis problems.

A Structural Reliability Analysis Method Considering Multiple Correlation Features

The paper analyzes the correlation features between stress strength, multiple failure mechanisms, and multiple components. It investigates the effects of different correlation features on reliability and proposes a method for structural reliability analysis that considers the joint effects of multiple correlation features. To portray the stress–strength correlation structure, the Copula function is utilized and the influence of the correlation degree parameter on reliability is clarified. The text describes the introduction of time-varying characteristics of structural strength and correlation parameters. A time-varying Copula is then constructed to calculate the structural reliability under the stress–strength correlation characteristics. Additionally, a time-varying hybrid Copula is constructed to characterize the intricate and correlation features of multiple failure mechanisms and components. The article proposes the variational adaptive sparrow search algorithm (VASSA) to obtain optimal parameters for the time-varying hybrid Copula. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified through actual cases. The results indicate that multiple correlation features significantly influence structural reliability. Incorporating multiple correlation features into the solution of structural reliability yields safer results that align with engineering practice.

An enhanced learning function for bootstrap polynomial chaos expansion-based enhanced active learning algorithm for reliability analysis of structure

Sparse polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) combined with the bootstrap resampling method is a viable alternative to obtain an active learning algorithm for reliability analysis. The existing learning functions in PCE-based active learning algorithms do not consider the joint probability density function (PDF) information. The present study explores a sparse PCE-based active learning algorithm based on a newly proposed learning function that maintains a balance between the misclassification probability and the joint PDF information of sample points. In doing so, the coefficients of the sparse PCE are estimated using a Bayesian compressive sensing regressor, as it is noted to be one of the best-performing regression solvers for PCE, irrespective of sampling schemes. The proposed learning function considers the weight of the joint PDF with the local accuracy measure of bootstrap PCE (bPCE) to add new samples iteratively in the existing training set. The convergence is achieved when the ten consecutive failure estimates are within a negligible discrepancy and also checks the confidence bounds of the bPCE estimates. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated using two structural engineering examples and one well-known analytical test function and is found to be quite efficient and accurate in estimating reliability.