Strong Predictor Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

Clinical and Angiographic Predictors of ST-Segment Recovery After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Important determinants of incomplete ST-segment recovery in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been incompletely characterized. Early risk stratification could identify patients with STEMI and incomplete ST-segment recovery who may benefit from adjunctive therapy. For the present study, we analyzed 12-lead electrocardiograms from 2,124 patients with STEMI who underwent primary PCI at our institution from 2000 to 2007. ST-segment recovery was defined as percent change in cumulative ST-segment deviation between preprocedural and immediately postprocedural electrocardiograms and categorized as incomplete when <50%. A total of 1,032 patients (49%) had incomplete ST-segment recovery. After multivariable adjustment, age >60 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06 to 1.54, p = 0.011), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.82, p = 0.034), left anterior descending coronary artery-related STEMI (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.30, p<0.001), and multivessel disease (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.63, p = 0.004) were independent predictors of incomplete ST-segment recovery. Current smoking (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.95, p = 0.013) and a preprocedural Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade <3 flow (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.93, p = 0.014) were inversely related to ST-segment recovery. Incomplete ST-segment recovery was a strong predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio 2.07, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.69, p <0.001) in addition to identified characteristics that independently predicted incomplete ST-segment recovery. In conclusion, incomplete ST-segment recovery at the end of PCI occurred significantly more often in the presence of an age >60 years, nonsmoking, diabetes mellitus, left anterior descending coronary artery-related STEMI, multivessel disease, and preprocedural Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade 3 flow. Patients with STEMI and these clinical features are at increased risk of impaired myocardial salvage and are appropriate candidates for adjunctive therapy.

Idiopathic (unexplained) pulmonary embolism is associated with an impaired prognosis compared to other entities of pulmonary embolism

In patients following acute pulmonary embolism, little is known about long-term prognosis attributed to individual risk factors and entities of pulmonary embolism. The aim of our study was to identify predictors of long-term mortality and morbidity, taking into account precipitating causes and entities of pulmonary embolism, especially in cases of idiopathic pulmonary embolism. We reviewed the records of 257 consecutive patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism in the emergency room of the University Hospital in Frankfurt between 1997 and 2006. The median of the follow-up time in this study population was 670 days (n = 236; interquartile range: 378-1397 days). The patients were divided into three groups depending on the cause of pulmonary embolism: idiopathic pulmonary embolism (n = 83; 33%), neoplasm (n = 44; 17%) and other causes (n = 130; 50%). As expected, patients with neoplastic-associated pulmonary embolism demonstrated the poorest prognosis in the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Surprisingly though, patients with idiopathic pulmonary embolism demonstrated a markedly worse long-term survival compared with other causes (log-rank P < 0.001). When Cox-regression analysis was restricted to patients discharged alive without neoplasm, idiopathic pulmonary embolism was the strongest predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio: 3.29; P = 0.017). Patients with acute pulmonary embolism and known malignancy demonstrated the highest mortality compared with those with other causes. However, idiopathic pulmonary embolism is a common diagnosis and is associated with an unfavorable long-term prognosis compared with other entities of pulmonary embolism.

Significance of Aphasia after First-Ever Acute Stroke: Impact on Early and Late Outcomes

Background: We assessed the incidence and determinants of aphasia attributable to first-ever acute stroke. We also investigated early and long-term mortality and 1-year dependence in post-stroke patients. Methods: A 10-year prospective hospital-based study was conducted in the prefecture of Athens, Greece. Results: In total, 2,297 patients were included in the study, of whom 806 (35.1%) had aphasia. The presence of aphasia was independently associated with increasing age (OR: 1.19 per 10-year increase, 95% CI: 1.12–1.21) and atrial fibrillation (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.08–1.67), and inversely associated with Scandinavian Stroke Scale (SSS) score (OR: 0.55 per 10-point increase, 95% CI: 0.52–0.59) and hypertension (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.63–0.96). One-year dependence score (calculated with the modified Rankin score) was higher in aphasic patients compared to non-aphasics (p < 0.001). Moreover, severity of aphasia (estimated with a subscale of SSS) was found as an independent predictor of 1-year dependence. Most of the deaths in the aphasic patients were attributed to infections and neurological damage. Using the Kaplan-Meier limit method, the unadjusted probability of 10-year mortality was demonstrated to increase with the severity of aphasia (log-rank test: 233.9, p < 0.001) and, even after adjustment for several other factors, severity of aphasia remained an independent predictor of 10-year mortality. Conclusions: Increasing age, atrial fibrillation and severity of stroke were associated with the risk of aphasia after stroke. Severity of aphasia is a strong predictor of long-term mortality and dependence of post-stroke patients.

Serum Amyloid-A Rather Than C-Reactive Protein Is a Better Predictor of Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

The most frequent cause of death in hemodialysis patients is cardiovascular disease with chronic inflammation being an epidemiologically proved risk factor. Many studies have shown C-reactive protein (CRP) as the strongest predictor of long-term mortality of hemodialysis patients, while other reports have indicated acute phase proteins as potential predictors of the mortality. The present study therefore aimed to evaluate the prevalence of chronic inflammation in hemodialysis patients and the role of acute phase proteins together with lipids and divalent ions for predicting mortality in hemodialysis patients. Chronic inflammation was defined, based on the serum level of high sensitive CRP > 8.4 mg/L and/or serum amyloid-A (SAA) > 8.9 mg/L. Acute phase proteins are defined as one whose plasma concentration increase (positive) or decreases (negative) by at least 25% during inflammation. High sensitive CRP and SAA were positive acute phase proteins measured, while albumin and fetuin-A, a calcification inhibitor, were selected as negative acute phase proteins. This prospective 36-month follow-up study included 130 patients (60 males and 70 females, aged 55.1 +/- 12.9 years) maintained by hemodialysis for 107.2 +/- 54.72 months at a Nephrology Clinic in Belgrade. The prevalence of chronic inflammation was 35.4% (46 patients). During the follow-up period, 24 patients (18.5%) died and 2 patients received transplants. In multivariate analysis, potential independent predictors of mortality in hemodialysis patients are hyperphosphatemia, hypoalbuminemia, and high SAA. Considering that assays for SAA are widely used, we propose that SAA is the best predictor for outcomes of end-stage renal disease.

Long-term Significance of Killip Class and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction

Background Killip classification is an independent predictor of early mortality after myocardial infarction, and the presence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction <50%) and high Killip class predicts poor short-term prognosis. The long-term prognostic significance of Killip class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, however, is unknown. Methods We studied the impact of Killip class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction on all-cause mortality (assessed in May 2007 using the Social Security Death Index) in myocardial infarction patients admitted from July 1995 to December 1996. Results Of 282 patients, 60% (n = 168) were Killip class 1, 23% (n = 64) were Killip class 2, and 17% (n = 50) were Killip class 3 or 4. Patients with higher Killip class were older and more likely to have diabetes, a non-Q-wave myocardial infarction, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. There were 152 deaths at 10 years after myocardial infarction, and patients with Killip class 2, 3, or 4 had higher mortality compared with Killip class 1 in unadjusted analyses. Patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and Killip class of 2 or more had significantly higher 10-year mortality (70 deaths or 76.9%) compared with Killip class 1 patients without left ventricular systolic dysfunction (29 deaths or 34.5%, P <.001). This risk persisted after adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and co-morbidities. Much of the risk was explained by deaths in the first 5 years after myocardial infarction. Conclusions Killip class is a strong predictor of long-term mortality, and patients with high Killip class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction are at highest risk.

Predictors and outcomes of a perioperative myocardial infarction following elective vascular surgery in patients with documented coronary artery disease: results of the CARP trial

The predictors and outcomes of patients with a peri-operative elevation in cardiac troponin I above the 99th percentile of normal following an elective vascular operation have not been studied in a homogeneous cohort with documented coronary artery disease. The Coronary Artery Revascularization Prophylaxis (CARP) trial was a randomized trial that tested the benefit of coronary artery revascularization prior to vascular surgery. Among 377 randomized patients, core lab samples for peak cardiac troponin I concentrations were monitored following the vascular operation and the blinded results were correlated with outcomes. A peri-operative myocardial infarction (MI), defined by an increase in cardiac troponin I greater than the 99th percentile reference (> or =0.1 microg/L), occurred in 100 patients (26.5%) and the incidence was not dissimilar in patients with and without pre-operative coronary revascularization (24.2 vs. 28.6%; P = 0.32). By logistic regression analysis, predictors of MI (odds risk; 95%CI; P-value) were age >70 (1.84; 1.14-2.98; P = 0.01), abdominal aortic surgery (1.82; 1.09-3.03; P = 0.02), diabetes (1.86; 1.11-3.11; P = 0.02), angina (1.67; 1.03-2.64; P = 0.04), and baseline STT abnormalities (1.62; 1.00-2.6; P = 0.05). At 2.5 years post-surgery, the probability of survival in patients with and without the MI was 0.73 and 0.84, respectively (P = 0.03, log-rank test). Using a Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, a peri-operative MI in diabetic patients was a strong predictor of long-term mortality (hazards ratio: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.31-4.48; P < 0.01). Among patients with coronary artery disease who undergo vascular surgery, a peri-operative elevation in cardiac troponin levels is common and in combination with diabetes, is a strong predictor of long-term mortality. These data support the utility of cardiac troponins as a means of stratifying high-risk patients following vascular operations.

Short- and long-term outcomes of older patients in intermediate care units

To evaluate short- and long-term outcomes of elderly patients (>or=65 years) treated at an intermediate care unit (IMCU) and to identify outcome predictors. Prospective observational study in the IMCU of a university teaching hospital. We studied 412 patients over 8 months, classified into three groups: under 65years (control group, n=158), 65-80 (n=186), and >80 (n=68). At admission: APACHE II, TISS-28 first day, Charlson Index, diagnosis, and prior Barthel Index. in-hospital mortality, length of stay, discharge destination, and 2-year mortality and readmissions. Data analysis included multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (ROC AUC). No statistically significant differences between groups were observed in hospital mortality (14.1%), discharge to a long-term facility (2.7%), or 2-year readmissions (1.2+/-2.1). However, hospital stay was longer in patients aged 65-80years (14 vs.10 days) and 2-year mortality was higher in those 65 or over (34% vs.10.6%). In the overall series in-hospital mortality was predicted by APACHE II, first-day TISS-28, and diagnosis (ROC AUC 0.81), and 2-year mortality by Charlson Index and age (ROC AUC 0.77). In the elderly patients 2-year mortality was predicted by Charlson and Barthel indices (ROC AUC 0.70). Illness severity and therapeutic intervention at admission to IMCU were predictors of short-term mortality, whereas the strongest predictor of long-term mortality was comorbidity. Our results suggest that comprehensive assessment of elderly patients at admission to IMCUs may improve outcome prediction.

Hypoalbuminemia 3 Months After Hospital Discharge: Significance for Long‐Term Survival

To determine change in albumin from hospital discharge to 3-month follow-up and the prognostic significance of persistent hypoalbuminemia in older veteran patients. A prospective cohort study. A geriatric rehabilitation unit of a university-affiliated Department of Veterans Affairs hospital. The study population consisted of 282 subjects (of 322 randomly selected discharges who were free of cancer and terminal conditions) that completed the 90-day postdischarge assessment; most were older (75.4+/-8.6), white (76%), and male (99%). Each subject completed a comprehensive discharge assessment, had a repeat albumin an average of 94 days later, and was then tracked for 5 years. The strongest predictors of survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Between hospital discharge and the 3-month reassessment, albumins improved by more than 2 g/L in 122 subjects (43%), stayed the same in 112 subjects (40%), and deteriorated by more than 2 g/L in the rest. During follow-up, 190 subjects (67%) died. Of the 38 nutritional, functional, demographic, and illness severity variables evaluated, the 3-month postdischarge albumin was the strongest predictor of long-term mortality. Those with albumins less than 35 g/L had a 2.6 times greater mortality than those with albumins of 40 g/L or greater (relative risk=2.6, 95% confidence interval=1.8-3.8). After controlling for 3-month albumin, hospital-discharge albumin was not significantly associated with long-term mortality. In older people, a low serum albumin 3 months after hospital discharge is associated with a poor long-term prognosis. It is not known whether this represents ongoing inflammation or inadequate nutrition.

Long-term follow-up after invasive approach of coronary artery disease in daily practice

Background To assess long-term survival in unselected patients with coronary artery disease in who an invasive approach is considered. Methods All patients with significant coronary artery disease who were presented for coronary revascularisation to two tertiary centres in 1992 were included. Follow-up data were collected in September 2002. Multivariate Cox' proportional-hazards regression analysis was applied to assess the independent relation between variables and 10-year survival. Results A total of 877 patients were included in this analysis. Mean age was 62 and the most common clinical diagnosis was chronic stable angina (60%). Diabetes was present in 12% of the patients. During the follow-up period, 233 patients (27%) died. Predictors of long-term survival were increasing age, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease and a decreased left ventricular function. Compared to medical treated patients, those treated with revascularisation (either by PCI or CABG) had a decreased long-term mortality ( p<0.05). Of the patients with PCI 27% had died, compared to 24% in those who had CABG and 36% of those who were treated medically. However, after adjusting for differences in baseline variables, conservative treatment was no significant predictor of long-term mortality. After multivariable analyses, increasing age, decreased left ventricular function and diabetes were independent predictors of long-term mortality. Conclusions In patients with coronary artery disease in whom an invasive approach is considered, increasing age, impaired left ventricular function and diabetes are the strongest predictors of long-term mortality. After adjustments for differences in baseline variables, invasive treatment is not associated with a lower long-term mortality.

Heart failure in the elderly: age-related differences in clinical profile and mortality

Background Age influence in the prognosis in unselected patients with heart failure has not been widely studied. Aims To evaluate possible differences in clinical profile and outcome of patients hospitalized with HF according to age. Methods and results During 1996, a total of 1065 hospital in-patients had confirmed heart failure, with follow-up data through 2002. Patients were separated in two groups ≤75 and >75 years of age. Older patients were less frequently men (32 vs. 52%) and had a higher prevalence of previous stroke (14 vs. 10%). Echocardiography was performed less frequently in older patients (55% vs. 78%) and normal systolic function (55 vs. 40%), and aortic stenosis (12 vs. 7%) were more prevalent. They received less anticoagulants (11 vs. 43%) and β-blockers (2 vs. 7%), while the opposite happened with aspirin (32 vs. 23%) and diuretics (88 vs. 80%). During follow-up, 507 patients died: 55.9% vs. 38.5%. Being >75 years of age was the strongest predictor of mortality HR: 1.7, CI 95% 1.5–2.1, P<0.0001. Conclusion Patients with 76 or more years admitted with HF have a different clinical profile. Echocardiography, oral anticoagulation and β-blockers were underused in these patients. Age was the strongest predictor of long-term mortality.

Preoperative thallium scanning, selective coronary revascularization, and long-term survival after major vascular surgery.

Ischemia on thallium scanning is a strong predictor of long-term mortality in CAD patients. Whether coronary revascularization (CR) in patients with significant ischemia on preoperative thallium scanning (PTS) improves long-term survival after major vascular surgery has not been determined. The perioperative data, including PTS and subsequent CR in patients with moderate to severe reversible ischemia on PTS, and long-term survival of 502 consecutive patients who underwent 578 major vascular procedures were analyzed retrospectively. Patients with PTS who ultimately did not undergo the planned vascular operation were also studied. Cox regression and propensity score analyses were used to analyze survival. A total of 407 patients (81.1%) had PTS: 221 (54.3%) had no or mild defects (group I); 50 (12.3%) had moderate-severe fixed defects (group II); 62 (15.2%) had moderate-severe reversible ischemia yet did not undergo CR (group III); and 74 (18.2%) had moderate-severe reversible ischemia and subsequent CR by CABG (36) or PTCA (38; group IV). Patients who sustained major complications as a result of the preoperative cardiac workup were included in group IV. By multivariate analysis, age, type of vascular surgery, presence of diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, and moderate-severe ischemia on PTS independently predicted mortality (P=0.001, 0.009, 0.039, 0.006, and 0.029, respectively), and preoperative CR predicted improved survival (OR 0.52, P=0.018). Group IV had better survival than group III even when subdivided according to normal and reduced left ventricular function (OR 0.40 and 0.41, P=0.035 and 0.021, respectively). Long-term survival after major vascular surgery is significantly improved if patients with moderate-severe ischemia on PTS undergo selective CR.

Long-term follow-up of coronary artery disease presenting in young adults

ObjectivesThis study evaluated long-term survival and predictors of elevated risk for young adults diagnosed with coronary artery disease (CAD). BackgroundCoronary artery disease is rarely seen in young adults. Traditional cardiac risk factors have been studied in small series; however, many questions exist. MethodsWe identified 843 patients under age 40 with CAD diagnosed by coronary angiography from 1975 to 1985. Death, hypertension, gender, family history, prior myocardial infarction (MI), diabetes, heart failure, angina class, number of diseased vessels, ejection fraction (EF), Q-wave infarction, in-hospital death, and initial therapy were studied. Patients were followed for 15 years. ResultsThe mean age was 35 for women (n = 94) and 36 for men (n = 729). The average EF was 55%. Fifty-eight percent of the subjects had single-vessel disease, and 10% were diabetic. The strongest predictors of long-term mortality were a prior MI (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.73), New York Heart Association class II heart failure (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.97), and active tobacco use (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14 to 2.21). Revascularization, rather than medical therapy, was associated with lower mortality (coronary angioplasty: HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.81; coronary artery bypass graft: HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.94). Overall mortality was 30% at 15 years. Patients with diabetes had 15-year mortality of 65%. Those with prior MI had 15-year mortality of 45%, and patients with an EF <30% a mortality of 83% at 15 years. ConclusionsCoronary disease in young adults can carry a poor long-term prognosis. A prior MI, diabetes, active tobacco abuse, and lower EF predict a significantly higher mortality.