Barrier discharges are known for strong memory effects which shape their stochastic properties. We study memory propagation in a surface barrier discharge operated at the water interface in atmospheric pressure air using electrical measurements and synchronized intensified CCD imaging. Comprehensive electrical data sets of seemingly chaotic behaviour are evaluated from thousands of subsequent periods recorded with high temporal resolution and large dynamic range. We confirm known memory effects and identify new ones both in between the half-periods as well as between subsequent pulses within one half-period. We find two memoryless states for the first discharges in the positive polarity which are defined by the presence/absence of photoemission-induced collective behaviour. Given the determined probability for entering one of these two suspected Markov states, the system bifurcates and follows one of the two subsequent non-Markovian pathways. The identification of the collective behaviour in these pathways enables us to recognize the spatially resolved property of the system and to determine its probability of occurrence, both solely from the zero-dimensional electrical characterisation.