Strong Geographic Patterns Research Articles

Exploring Genetic Diversity within aus Rice Germplasm: Insights into the Variations in Agro-morphological Traits

The aus (Oryza sativa L.) varietal group comprises of aus, boro, ashina and rayada seasonal and/or field ecotypes, and exhibits unique stress tolerance traits, making it valuable for rice breeding. Despite its importance, the agro-morphological diversity and genetic control of yield traits in aus rice remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated the genetic structure of 181 aus accessions using 399,115 SNP markers and evaluated them for 11 morpho-agronomic traits. Through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we aimed to identify key loci controlling yield and plant architectural traits.Our population genetic analysis unveiled six subpopulations with strong geographical patterns. Subpopulation-specific differences were observed in most phenotypic traits. Principal component analysis (PCA) of agronomic traits showed that principal component 1 (PC1) was primarily associated with panicle traits, plant height, and heading date, while PC2 and PC3 were linked to primary grain yield traits. GWAS using PC1 identified OsSAC1 on Chromosome 7 as a significant gene influencing multiple agronomic traits. PC2-based GWAS highlighted the importance of OsGLT1 and OsPUP4/ Big Grain 3 in determining grain yield. Haplotype analysis of these genes in the 3,000 Rice Genome Panel revealed distinct genetic variations in aus rice.In summary, this study offers valuable insights into the genetic structure and phenotypic diversity of aus rice accessions. We have identified significant loci associated with essential agronomic traits, with GLT1, PUP4, and SAC1 genes emerging as key players in yield determination.

A nowcast model to predict outdoor flea activity in real time for the contiguous United States.

The cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis), a parasite commonly found on both dogs and cats, is a competent vector for several zoonotic pathogens, including Dipylidium caninum (tapeworms), Bartonella henselae (responsible for cat scratch disease) and Rickettsia felis (responsible for flea-borne spotted fever). Veterinarians recommend that both cats and dogs be routinely treated with medications to prevent flea infestation. Nevertheless, surveys suggest that nearly one third of pet owners do not routinely administer appropriate preventatives. A mathematical model based on weighted averaging over time is developed to predict outdoor flea activity from weather conditions for the contiguous United States. This 'nowcast' model can be updated in real time as weather conditions change and serves as an important tool for educating pet owners about the risks of flea-borne disease. We validate our model using Google Trends data for searches for the term 'fleas.' This Google Trends data serve as a proxy for true flea activity, as validating the model by collecting fleas over the entire USA is prohibitively costly and time-consuming. The average correlation (r) between the nowcast outdoor flea activity predictions and the Google Trends data was moderate: 0.65, 0.70, 0.66, 0.71 and 0.63 for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. However, there was substantial regional variation in performance, with the average correlation in the East South Atlantic states being 0.81 while the average correlation in the Mountain states was only 0.45. The nowcast predictions displayed strong seasonal and geographic patterns, with predicted activity generally being highest in the summer months. The nowcast model is a valuable tool by which to educate pet owners regarding the risk of fleas and flea-borne disease and the need to routinely administer flea preventatives. While it is ideal for domestic cats and dogs to on flea preventatives year-round, many pets remain vulnerable to flea infestation. Alerting pet owners to the local increased risk of flea activity during certain times of the year may motivate them to administer appropriate routine preventives.

In vitro bioassays for monitoring drinking water quality of tap water, domestic filtration and bottled water

BackgroundLocation-specific patterns of regulated and non-regulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) were detected in tap water samples of the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. However, it remains unclear if the detected DBPs together with undetected DPBs and organic micropollutants can lead to mixture effects in drinking water.ObjectiveTo evaluate the neurotoxicity, oxidative stress response and cytotoxicity of 42 tap water samples, 6 treated with activated carbon filters, 5 with reverse osmosis and 9 bottled waters. To compare the measured effects of the extracts with the mixture effects predicted from the detected concentrations and the relative effect potencies of the detected DBPs using the mixture model of concentration addition.MethodsMixtures of organic chemicals in water samples were enriched by solid phase extraction and tested for cytotoxicity and neurite outgrowth inhibition in the neuronal cell line SH-SY5Y and for cytotoxicity and oxidative stress response in the AREc32 assay.ResultsUnenriched water did not trigger neurotoxicity or cytotoxicity. After up to 500-fold enrichment, few extracts showed cytotoxicity. Disinfected water showed low neurotoxicity at 20- to 300-fold enrichment and oxidative stress response at 8- to 140-fold enrichment. Non-regulated non-volatile DBPs, particularly (brominated) haloacetonitriles dominated the predicted mixture effects of the detected chemicals and predicted effects agreed with the measured effects. By hierarchical clustering we identified strong geographical patterns in the types of DPBs and their association with effects. Activated carbon filters did not show a consistent reduction of effects but domestic reverse osmosis filters decreased the effect to that of bottled water.Impact statementBioassays are an important complement to chemical analysis of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water. Comparison of the measured oxidative stress response and mixture effects predicted from the detected chemicals and their relative effect potencies allowed the identification of the forcing agents for the mixture effects, which differed by location but were mainly non-regulated DBPs. This study demonstrates the relevance of non-regulated DBPs from a toxicological perspective. In vitro bioassays, in particular reporter gene assays for oxidative stress response that integrate different reactive toxicity pathways including genotoxicity, may therefore serve as sum parameters for drinking water quality assessment.

Molecular systematics and phylogenetics of the spider genus Mastigusa Menge, 1854 (Araneae, Cybaeidae)

The palearctic spider genus Mastigusa Menge, 1854 is characterized by a remarkable morphology and wide ecological variability, with free-living, cave dwelling and myrmecophile populations known. This genus has a long and tangled taxonomic history and was placed in different families in the past, all belonging to the “marronoid clade”, an informal grouping of families characterized by the lack of strong synapomorphies. Three species are currently recognized, but their identity and circumscription has been long debated. A molecular approach was never applied for trying to solve these uncertainties, and doubts still remain both about its phylogenetic placement and about the taxonomic status of the described species. For the first time the genus Mastigusa is included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis and strong support is found for its placement within the family Cybaeidae, in sister relationship with the genus Cryphoeca Thorell, 1870. An analysis of Mastigusa populations spanning across the distribution range of the genus identifies a high and previously overlooked genetic diversity, with six distinct genetic lineages showing a strong geographic pattern. Divergence times between Mastigusa and its sister genus and between the distinct Mastigusa lineages are estimated, and the groundwork is laid for a taxonomic revision of the species belonging to the genus.

Population Structure and Selection Signatures of Domestication in Geese.

The goose is an economically important poultry species and was one of the first to be domesticated. However, studies on population genetic structures and domestication in goose are very limited. Here, we performed whole genome resequencing of geese from two wild ancestral populations, five Chinese domestic breeds, and four European domestic breeds. We found that Chinese domestic geese except Yili geese originated from a common ancestor and exhibited strong geographical distribution patterns and trait differentiation patterns, while the origin of European domestic geese was more complex, with two modern breeds having Chinese admixture. In both Chinese and European domestic geese, the identified selection signatures during domestication primarily involved the nervous system, immunity, and metabolism. Interestingly, genes related to vision, skeleton, and blood-O2 transport were also found to be under selection, indicating genetic adaptation to the captive environment. A forehead knob characterized by thickened skin and protruding bone is a unique trait of Chinese domestic geese. Interestingly, our population differentiation analysis followed by an extended genotype analysis in an additional population suggested that two intronic SNPs in EXT1, an osteochondroma-related gene, may plausibly be sites responsible for knob. Moreover, CSMD1 and LHCGR genes were found to be significantly associated with broodiness in Chinese domestic geese and European domestic geese, respectively. Our results have important implications for understanding the population structure and domestication of geese, and the selection signatures and variants identified in this study might be useful in genetic breeding for forehead knob and reproduction traits.

Convergent Community Assembly among Globally Separated Acidic Cave Biofilms.

Acidophilic bacteria and archaea inhabit extreme geochemical "islands" that can tell us when and how geographic barriers affect the biogeography of microorganisms. Here, we describe microbial communities from extremely acidic (pH 0 to 1) biofilms, known as snottites, from hydrogen sulfide-rich caves. Given the extreme acidity and subsurface location of these biofilms, and in light of earlier work showing strong geographic patterns among snottite Acidithiobacillus populations, we investigated their structure and diversity in order to understand how geography might impact community assembly. We used 16S rRNA gene cloning and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to investigate 26 snottite samples from four sulfidic caves in Italy and Mexico. All samples had very low biodiversity and were dominated by sulfur-oxidizing bacteria in the genus Acidithiobacillus. Ferroplasma and other archaea in the Thermoplasmatales ranged from 0 to 50% of total cells, and relatives of the bacterial genera Acidimicrobium and Ferrimicrobium were up to 15% of total cells. Rare phylotypes included Sulfobacillus spp. and members of the phyla "Candidatus Dependentiae" and "Candidatus Saccharibacteria" (formerly TM6 and TM7). Although the same genera of acidophiles occurred in snottites on separate continents, most members of those genera represent substantially divergent populations, with 16S rRNA genes that are only 95 to 98% similar. Our findings are consistent with a model of community assembly where sulfidic caves are stochastically colonized by microorganisms from local sources, which are strongly filtered through environmental selection for extreme acid tolerance, and these different colonization histories are maintained by dispersal restrictions within and among caves. IMPORTANCE Microorganisms that are adapted to extremely acidic conditions, known as extreme acidophiles, are catalysts for rock weathering, metal cycling, and mineral formation in naturally acidic environments. They are also important drivers of large-scale industrial processes such as biomining and contaminant remediation. Understanding the factors that govern their ecology and distribution can help us better predict and utilize their activities in natural and engineered systems. However, extremely acidic habitats are unusual in that they are almost always isolated within circumneutral landscapes. So where did their acid-adapted inhabitants come from, and how do new colonists arrive and become established? In this study, we took advantage of a unique natural experiment in Earth's subsurface to show how isolation may have played a role in the colonization history, community assembly, and diversity of highly acidic microbial biofilms.

Assessing supermarket patronage in Matola, Mozambique

As an indicator of a potential broader nutrition transition, the supermarketization of urban food systems in the Global South has become a growing area of research interest. While the rising dominance of supermarkets in urban food systems has been noted in several global cities in the Global South, there have been fewer investigations into the spatial and demographic characteristics that may govern the patronage of supermarkets in smaller secondary cities. This paper assesses this supermarketization trend via an investigation of supermarket patronage in a secondary city through a 2014 household survey of Matola, Mozambique (n = 507). Using a combination of descriptive statistics and decision tree learning algorithms, the findings suggest a strong geographic pattern to supermarket patronage among the surveyed households in Matola. Further analyses comparing frequent and infrequent supermarket patrons confirms the observation that spatial distance may be a more significant determinant of supermarket patronage than household wealth among the surveyed households in Matola. These findings suggest that the spatial availability of supermarkets may play a greater role in defining the supermarketization of Matola’s food system than household entitlements. These findings also have implications for the evolving concept of urban food deserts in secondary cities, recognizing the role of spatial location in determining household access to supermarkets.

International Obligations and Internal Tensions: Individual Religious Autonomy and Gender Equality in Russia and Central Asia

There are strong geographic patterns in how people view religion, national identity, minorities, and key social issues across different regions. These patterns also exhibit themselves in the ways that freedom of religion or belief (FoRB) and gender equality are viewed. This article focuses on gender equality in Central Asia and Russia and analyzes the international human rights treaty monitoring cycles within the United Nations. It also reflects on selected cases in the treaty committees. This article combines legal, human rights perspectives with current social research to identify deficiencies in states’ fulfillment of their positive duties under international law to address the intersections between gender-based discrimination and religion. It employs the concept of intersectional discrimination to analyze these connections. The connection between FoRB and gender equality from the perspective of intersectional discrimination has not been sufficiently researched in relation to Central Asia and Russia. The treaty monitoring documents are a good starting point for this research and give a comprehensive picture of existing legal issues and underlying social problems.

Geographic patterns and climatic correlates of deep evolutionary legacies for angiosperm assemblages in China

AbstractDeep evolutionary histories can play an important role in assembling species into communities, but few studies have explored the effects of deep evolutionary histories on species assembly of angiosperms (flowering plants). Here we explore patterns of family divergence and diversification times (stem and crown ages, respectively) and phylogenetic fuses for angiosperm assemblages in 100 × 100 km grid cells across geographic and ecological gradients in China. We found that both family stem and crown ages of angiosperm assemblages are older in southeastern China with warm and humid climates than in northwestern China with cold and dry climates; these patterns are stronger for family stem ages than for family crown ages; families in colder and drier climates are more closely related across the family‐level angiosperm phylogeny; and family phylogenetic fuses are, on average, longer for angiosperm assemblages in warm and humid climates than in cold and dry climate. We conclude that the fact that deep evolutionary histories, which were measured as family stem and crown ages and family phylogenetic fuses in this study, have shown strong geographic and ecological patterns suggests that deep evolutionary histories of angiosperms have profound effects on assembling angiosperm species into ecological communities.

Road network evolution in the urban and rural United States since 1900

Road networks represent a key component of human settlements, such as cities, towns, and villages, that mediate pollution and congestion, as well as economic development. However, little is known about the long-term development trajectories of road networks in rural and urban settings. We leverage novel spatial data sources to reconstruct and analyze road networks in more than 850 US cities and over 2500 US counties since 1900. Our analysis reveals significant variations in the structure of roads both within cities and across the conterminous US. Despite differences in the evolution of these networks, there are commonalities and strong geographic patterns. These results persist across the rural-urban continuum and are therefore not just a product of accelerated urban growth. These findings refine and extend existing knowledge and illuminate the need for policies for urban and rural planning including the critical assessment of new development trends.

Mitonuclear genetic patterns of divergence in the marbled crab, Pachygrapsus marmoratus (Fabricius, 1787) along the Turkish seas

Biogeographical transition zones present good opportunities for studying the effect of the past ice ages on genetic structure of species because secondary contact zones of post-glacial lineages can be formed. In this study, we investigated the population genetic structure of the marbled rock crab, Pachygrapsus marmoratus along the coasts of Turkey. We genotyped 334 individuals from the Black Sea, the Turkish Straits System (TSS), the Aegean, and the Eastern Mediterranean basins. In order to reveal its evolutionary history and its population connectivity, we used mitochondrial CO1 region and five microsatellite loci. CO1 analyzes also included 610 additional samples from Genbank, which covered most of its distribution range. Both microsatellites and mtDNA showed decreased diversity in sampling sites of the TSS and the Black Sea as compared to those along the Aegean and the Levantine coasts. There is an especially strong geographical pattern in distributions of haplotypes in mtDNA, most probably as a result of genetic drift in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara (SoM). Microsatellite data analyses revealed two genetically distinct clusters of P. marmoratus (clusters C and M). While individuals belonging to cluster C are present in all the sampling locations, those belonging to cluster M are only detected along the Mediterranean coasts including the Aegean and the Levantine basins. These clusters shared similar haplotypes in the Mediterranean. Haplotypes of two sympatric clusters could be similar due to incomplete lineage sorting of ancestral polymorphisms. In order to retrieve the complex demographic history and to investigate evolutionary processes resulting in sympatric clusters in the Aegean Sea and the Levantine basin, mitochondrial markers with faster mutation rates than CO1 and/or SNP data will be useful.

Whole-genome resequencing of Coffea arabica L. (Rubiaceae) genotypes identify SNP and unravels distinct groups showing a strong geographical pattern

BackgroundCoffea arabica L. is an economically important agricultural crop and the most popular beverage worldwide. As a perennial crop with recalcitrant seed, conservation of the genetic resources of coffee can be achieved through the complementary approach of in-situ and ex-situ field genebank. In Ethiopia, a large collection of C. arabica L. germplasm is preserved in field gene banks. Here, we report the whole-genome resequencing of 90 accessions from Choche germplasm bank representing garden and forest-based coffee production systems using Illumina sequencing technology.ResultsThe genome sequencing generated 6.41 billion paired-end reads, with a mean of 71.19 million reads per sample. More than 93% of the clean reads were mapped onto the C. arabica L. reference genome. A total of 11.08 million variants were identified, among which 9.74 million (87.9%) were SNPs (Single nucleotide polymorphisms) and 1.34 million (12.1%) were InDels. In all accessions, genomic variants were unevenly distributed across the coffee genome. The phylogenetic analysis using the SNP markers displayed distinct groups.ConclusionsResequencing of the coffee accessions has allowed identification of genetic markers, such as SNPs and InDels. The SNPs discovered in this study might contribute to the variation in important pathways of genes for important agronomic traits such as caffeine content, yield, disease, and pest in coffee. Moreover, the genome resequencing data and the genetic markers identified from 90 accessions provide insight into the genetic variation of the coffee germplasm and facilitate a broad range of genetic studies.

Geographic patterns in the diet of the Old World fruit bats: a review

Fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae are distributed in Africa, Asia, and Oceania, including many Pacific islands. Although known as good seed dispersers, there is no broader assessment of the diversity of the diet of the genera (44 to 46 recognized genera) across different localities. We analyzed the frugivorous diet of the family Pteropodidae through an extensive bibliographical review, using consumption records to document bat-fruit relations across the Old World and variation among the biogeographic realms proposed by Holt et al. (2013). Our review resulted in 239 studies and 2.597 records of 33 bat genera consuming 642 species of 320 genera from 104 angiosperms families. The most consumed fruit genus was Ficus, in almost all zoogeographic realms. However, bat-fruit relationships vary among realms with numerous links to regionally endemic plant species, suggesting a relation between the bats’ distribution and diversification of the associated flora. The genus Pteropus in particular, shows a strong geographic pattern in diet composition. Data of this nature help to visualize patterns in resource use among different regions of the globe and across diverse bat species assemblages and can direct further research on the evolution of pteropodid bats, their critical food resources, and their role in seed dispersal and ecosystem processes.

Markov modelling of viral load adjusting for CD4 orthogonal variable and multivariate conditional autoregressive mapping of the HIV immunological outcomes among ART patients in Zimbabwe

BackgroundThis study aimed to jointly model HIV disease progression patterns based on viral load (VL) among adult ART patients adjusting for the time-varying “incremental transients states” variable, and the CD4 cell counts orthogonal variable in a single 5-stage time-homogenous multistate Markov model. We further jointly mapped the relative risks of HIV disease progression outcomes (detectable VL (VL ≥ 50copies/uL) and immune deterioration (CD4 < 350cells/uL) at the last observed visit) conditional not to have died or become loss to follow-up (LTFU).MethodsSecondary data analysis of individual-level patients on ART was performed. Adjusted transition intensities, hazard ratios (HR) and regression coefficients were estimated from the joint multistate model of VL and CD4 cell counts. The mortality and LTFU transition rates defined the extent of patients’ retention in care. Joint mapping of HIV disease progression outcomes after ART initiation was done using the Bayesian intrinsic Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive prior model.ResultsThe viral rebound from the undetectable state was 1.78times more likely compared to viral suppression among patients with VL ranging from 50-1000copies/uL. Patients with CD4 cell counts lower than expected had a higher risk of viral increase above 1000copies/uL and death if their VL was above 1000copies/uL (state 2 to 3 (λ23): HR = 1.83 and (λ34): HR = 1.42 respectively). Regarding the time-varying effects of CD4 cell counts on the VL transition rates, as the VL increased, (λ12 and λ23) the transition rates increased with a decrease in the CD4 cell counts over time. Regardless of the individual’s VL, the transition rates to become LTFU decreased with a decrease in CD4 cell counts. We observed a strong shared geographical pattern of 66% spatial correlation between the relative risks of detectable VL and immune deterioration after ART initiation, mainly in Matabeleland North.ConclusionWith high rates of viral rebound, interventions which encourage ART adherence and continual educational support on the barriers to ART uptake are crucial to achieve and sustain viral suppression to undetectable levels. Area-specific interventions which focus on early ART screening through self-testing, behavioural change campaigns and social support strategies should be strengthened in heavily burdened regions to sustain the undetectable VL. Sustaining undetectable VL lowers HIV transmission in the general population and this is a step towards achieving zero HIV incidences by 2030.

Phylogeography Reveals Geographic and Environmental Factors Driving Genetic Differentiation of Populus sect. Turanga in Northwest China.

Populus sect. Turanga (hereafter referred to as “Populus”), including Populus euphratica and Populus pruinosa, are the predominant tree species in desert riparian forests in northwestern China. These trees play key roles in maintaining ecosystem balance, curbing desertification, and protecting biodiversity. However, the distribution area of Populus forests has been severely diminished and degraded in recent years due to increased habitat destruction and human activity. Understanding the genetic diversity among Populus individuals and populations is essential for designing conservation strategies, but comprehensive studies of their genetic diversity in northwest China are lacking. Here, we assessed the population structures and genetic diversity of 1,620 samples from 85 natural populations of Populus (59 P. euphratica and 26 P. pruinosa populations) covering all of northwestern China using 120 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Analysis of population structure revealed significant differentiation between these two sister species and indicated that strong geographical distribution patterns, a geographical barrier, and environmental heterogeneity shaped the extant genetic patterns of Populus. Both P. euphratica and P. pruinosa populations in southern Xinjiang had higher genetic diversity than populations in other clades, perhaps contributing to local geographic structure and strong gene flow. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) identified 15% variance among and 85% variance within subpopulations. Mantel tests suggested that the genetic variation among P. euphratica and P. pruinosa populations could be explained by both geographical and environmental distance. The genetic diversity of P. euphratica showed a significant negative correlation with latitude and longitude and a positive correlation with various environmental factors, such as precipitation of warmest quarter and driest month, temperature seasonality, and annual mean temperature. These findings provide insights into how the genetic differentiation of endangered Populus species was driven by geographical and environmental factors, which should be helpful for designing strategies to protect these genetic resources in the future.

Conservation status of the order Rodentia of Brazil: taxonomic and biogeographical patterns

The Global Mammal Assessment (GMA) evaluates the risk of extinction for all species of mammals, providing important data on their status to national and global conservation agencies and conventions. We assessed all of the species of Brazilian rodents as part of the GMA activities of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission (IUCN SSC) Small Mammal Specialist Group. A total of 234 species were evaluated against the IUCN Red List Criteria and placed into one of eight categories. Although rodents do not have elevated extinction risk compared to mammals as a whole, several families of caviomorph rodents have high levels of either threat, data deficiency, or both. The family Echimyidae has a large number of species and one-third of those either are species of conservation concern or data deficient. The family Ctenomyidae also is of concern in this regard. There are also strong geographic patterns to threat and poor knowledge. The focal areas for conservation effort are the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado, and for Data Deficient species Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia, in particular the eastern Amazon. The results highlight the need for targeted field research and the application of ecological and spatial data to the development of conservation actions.

Identifying and assessing the impact of key neighborhood-level determinants on geographic variation in stroke: a machine learning and multilevel modeling approach

BackgroundStroke is a chronic cardiovascular disease that puts major stresses on U.S. health and economy.The prevalence of stroke exhibits a strong geographical pattern at the state-level, where a cluster of southern states with a substantially higher prevalence of stroke has been called the stroke belt of the nation. Despite this recognition, the extent to which key neighborhood characteristics affect stroke prevalence remains to be further clarified.MethodsWe generated a new neighborhood health data set at the census tract level on nearly 27,000 tracts by pooling information from multiple data sources including the CDC’s 500 Cities Project 2017 data release. We employed a two-stage modeling approach to understand how key neighborhood-level risk factors affect the neighborhood-level stroke prevalence in each state of the US. The first stage used a state-of-the-art Bayesian machine learning algorithm to identify key neighborhood-level determinants. The second stage applied a Bayesian multilevel modeling approach to describe how these key determinants explain the variability in stroke prevalence in each state.ResultsNeighborhoods with a larger proportion of older adults and non-Hispanic blacks were associated with neighborhoods with a higher prevalence of stroke. Higher median household income was linked to lower stroke prevalence. Ozone was found to be positively associated with stroke prevalence in 10 states, while negatively associated with stroke in five states. There was substantial variation in both the direction and magnitude of the associations between these four key factors with stroke prevalence across the states.ConclusionsWhen used in a principled variable selection framework, high-performance machine learning can identify key factors of neighborhood-level prevalence of stroke from wide-ranging information in a data-driven way. The Bayesian multilevel modeling approach provides a detailed view of the impact of key factors across the states. The identified major factors and their effect mechanisms can potentially aid policy makers in developing area-based stroke prevention strategies.

Variations in Athlete Heat-Loss Potential Between Hot-Dry and Warm-Humid Environments at Equivalent Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Thresholds.

Many organizations associated with sports medicine recommend using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)-based activity-modification guidelines that are uniform across the country. However, no consideration has been given to whether the WBGT thresholds are appropriate for different weather conditions, such as warm-humid (WH) relative to hot-dry (HD), based on known differences in physiological responses to these environments. To identify if personnel in regions with drier conditions and greater evaporative cooling potential should consider using WBGT-based activity-modification thresholds that differ from those in more humid weather. Observational study. Weather stations across the contiguous United States. A 15-year hourly WBGT dataset from 217 weather stations across the contiguous United States was used to identify particular combinations of globe temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and air temperature that produce WBGTs of 27.9°C, 30.1°C, and 32.3°C. A total of 71 302 observations were clustered into HD and WH environmental conditions. From these clusters, maximum heat-loss potential and heat-flux values were modeled at equivalent WBGT thresholds with various activity levels, clothing, and equipment configurations. We identified strong geographic patterns, with HD conditions predominant in the western half and WH conditions predominant in the eastern half of the country. Heat loss was systematically greater in HD than in WH conditions, indicating an overall less stressful environment, even at equivalent WBGT values. At a WBGT of 32.3°C, this difference was 11 W·m-2 at an activity velocity of 0.3 m·s-1, which doubled for an activity velocity of 0.7 m·s-1. The HD and WH difference increased with the WBGT value, demonstrating that evaporative cooling differences between HD and WH conditions were even greater at a higher, rather than lower, WBGT. Potential heat loss was consistently greater in HD than in WH environments despite equal WBGTs. These findings support the need for further clinical studies to determine the appropriate WBGT thresholds based on environmental and physiological limits to maximize safety while avoiding unnecessary limitations.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: a two-stage interrupted time-series analysis.

BackgroundItaly was the first country outside China to experience the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant health burden. This study presents an analysis of the excess mortality across the 107 Italian provinces, stratified by sex, age group and period of the outbreak.MethodsThe analysis was performed using a two-stage interrupted time-series design using daily mortality data for the period January 2015–May 2020. In the first stage, we performed province-level quasi-Poisson regression models, with smooth functions to define a baseline risk while accounting for trends and weather conditions and to flexibly estimate the variation in excess risk during the outbreak. Estimates were pooled in the second stage using a mixed-effects multivariate meta-analysis.ResultsIn the period 15 February–15 May 2020, we estimated an excess of 47 490 [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCIs): 43 984 to 50 362] deaths in Italy, corresponding to an increase of 29.5% (95% eCI: 26.8 to 31.9%) from the expected mortality. The analysis indicates a strong geographical pattern, with the majority of excess deaths occurring in northern regions, where few provinces experienced increases up to 800% during the peak in late March. There were differences by sex, age and area both in the overall impact and in its temporal distribution.ConclusionThis study offers a detailed picture of excess mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. The strong geographical and temporal patterns can be related to the implementation of lockdown policies and multiple direct and indirect pathways in mortality risk.

Geographic patterns in colonial reproductive strategy in Myrmecina nipponica: Links between biogeography and a key polymorphism in ants.

The ability to express different phenotypes can help define species distributions by allowing access to, and exploitation of, new environments. Social insects employ two markedly different reproductive strategies with contrasting cost/benefit characteristics: independent colony foundation (ICF), which is associated with high dispersal range and high risk, and dependent colony foundation (DCF), characterized by low risk but low dispersal. The ant Myrmecina nipponica employs both of these strategies, with the frequency of each apparently varying between populations. We combine molecular data with data on reproductive strategy from different populations of this species throughout Japan to explore how this polymorphism is linked to environmental factors and whether this relationship can help explain the current and historical biogeography of this species. Reproductive strategy exhibited a strong geographic pattern, with ICF predominant in southern populations and DCF more common in northern and southern highland populations. Molecular analyses clearly divided populations into broad geographic regions, with the southern lowland populations basal to (southern highland (+ northern)) populations. Intra-population polymorphism in colony-founding strategy was widespread, and polymorphism was reconstructed as the likely ancestral state. The frequency of different strategies was linked with climate, with DCF more common in colder areas. A recent inferred origin to the northern lineage suggests that colonization of northern Japan was a rapid event coincident with warming at the end of the Last Glacial Maxima, likely facilitated by the cold-adaptive advantages of DCF. We discuss how such polymorphisms could help explain the biogeography of this and other social insects.