Strong Causal Relationship Research Articles

The Paramount Importance of Cultural Sources: American Foreign Policy and Comparative Foreign Policy Research Reconsidered

The author notes that there are two "worlds" of foreign policy analysis: the quantitative world of comparative foreign policy and the qualitative world of largely non-cumulative and single-case foreign policy studies. A major division concerns the inclusion of "intangibles", of which the "cultural factors" behind a nation's foreign policy may be considered at the core. The article points to the need for theoretically focused comprehensive studies with few cases as a way of bridging these two "worlds", and as a fruitful approach to theory-construction. With American foreign policy as one case, the author demonstrates how cultural sources should be considered a major source component of foreign policy. He then reviews how cultural/societal sources, broadly speaking, have been treated in the comparative foreign policy field and notes that while the "foreign policy events" school largely ignores cultural sources, the theorizing of James N. Rosenau, over a twenty-year period, has come to recognize such sources as fundamental. This, the article notes, seems to be linked to the definition of the dependent variable: foreign policy defined as "behavior" or discrete acts versus "orientation" (cf. K. J. Holsti). Rosenau's "adaptation model" as reformulated by Nicolaj Petersen is subsequently used to demonstrate how cultural/societal sources are of paramount importance when analyzing foreign policy defined as "orientation". The author concludes by proposing a three-level hierarchical definition of foreign policy as (1) foreign policy orientation, (2) sectorial foreign policies/programs of action, and (3) foreign policy behavior. A model is set up which hypothesizes a strong causal relationship between cultural/societal forces and foreign policy orientation and between situational/contextual factors and foreign policy behavior respectively. This fits in with a probabilistic relationship between policy as a "standard used in the making of decisions" and foreign policy behavior as discrete acts, and provides a perspective which helps explain issues related to consistency.

Assessing Medicare's Prospective Payment System

Sager et al 1 raise some interesting and important issues in this issue ofThe Journal. By reviewing hospitalization and mortality data for the Wisconsin-Medicaid elderly population in nursing homes and comparing the data with those for the noninstitutionalized Medicaid population, the authors claim a strong causal relationship between the advent of a prospective payment system (PPS) to hospitals and the rise in admissions to hospitals of the institutionalized elderly Medicaid patients. Likewise, they compare these two population groups for length of stay in the hospitals, noting a significantly greater decrease in length of stay for the institutionalized Medicaid patients than for the noninstitutionalized. Last, they describe a shift in mortality rates, with an increase in nursing home deaths and a corresponding decrease in hospital deaths. This study raises a number of significant issues that I will address, although I may be perceived as somewhat defensive of a system that

A guide to the nomenclature of heterochrony

Since Haeckel's Biogenetic Law (‘ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny’) fell into disrepute early in the twentieth century, there has been intermittent debate, particularly in recent years (de Beer, 1958; Gould, 1977; Alberch et al., 1979; Alberch, 1980; Bonner, 1982; McNamara, 1982a), on the nature of the relationship between an individual's development and phylogenetic history. Important questions under discussion include the following: If a strong causal relationship does exist, what is its nature? How does it work? What is its importance in evolution? How can it be recognized in the fossil record?

Sensor Fault Analysis Using Decision Theory and Data-Driven Modeling of Pressurized Water Reactor Subsystems

Instrument fault detection and estimation is important for process surveillance, control, and safety functions of a power plant. The method incorporates the dual-hypotheses decision procedure and system characterization using data-driven time-domain models of signals representing the system. The multivariate models can be developed on-line and can be adapted to changing system conditions. For the method to be effective, specific subsystems of pressurized water reactors were considered, and signal selection was made such that a strong causal relationship exists among the measured variables. The technique is applied to the reactor core subsystem of the loss-of-fluid test reactor using in-core neutron detector and core-exit thermocouple signals. Thermocouple anomalies such as bias error, noise error, and slow drift in the sensor are detected and estimated using appropriate measurement models.

Late morphologic consequences of measles: a lethal and debilitating lung disease among the poor.

Pneumonia that occurs within 28 days of the onset of measles rash is a common cause of severe pulmonary morbidity and/or death among poor children. The prevalence of such pneumonia can be related to the effectiveness of measles immunization programs. For 20 of 57 new cases of bronchiectasis in children undergoing bronchography, a strong causal relationship to measles was found. The lungs of 21 unselected children who died in the wake of measles were examined. Severe necrosis of bronchi and bronchioles was found in those children who had developed intercurrent adenovirus and herpesvirus infections. Bacterial suppuration produced a less severe necrosis. It is suggested that intercurrent adenovirus and herpesvirus infections that occur following measles are the most important initiating causes of follicular bronchiectasis in childhood. The severity of these supervening infections may be mediated by the transient immune suppression that occurs as a consequence of both measles and inadequate nutrition.

Palaeozoic sedimentary sequence as a reflection of deep structure in southwest Ireland

In County Cork, southwest Ireland, the Upper Devonian-Tournaisian succession is spectacularly thick (maximum approximately 8 km). A thick Viséan carbonate succession exists in the ground around Cork City and northward from there, but that apart, there is only a meagre representation of Carboniferous rocks younger than Tournaisian. Namurian and Westphalian are better developed in areas to the north and to the south of the locus of maximum thickness of Upper Devonian. Tuffisitic intrusions occur close to the trace of a large fracture in the Bantry Bay area. They have been suspected to include material derived from the mantle. The whole association is interpreted as a Palaeozoic example of an inversion structure. The inversion is attributed to heating arising from a lithospheric delamination occasioned by the collision which closed the Iapetus Ocean early in Devonian time. The possibly mantle-derived intrusions are set within the dome produced during the course of the inversion. Variscan folding took place during the development of the dome and certain irregularities in the pattern of outcrop of Variscan folds can be regarded as interference effects imposed on the folds by late continuation of the doming. Brief comments are appended on the means of dating the progress of the process of delamination, on the outworn notion of a “Variscan Front” and on the open question of the state of Palaeozoic rocks, whether metamorphic or non-metamorphic, in the Celtic Sea region. A strong causal relationship is demonstrated between the sequence of tectonic events and the regional facies associations. The patterns of megafacies from Upper Devonian to Westphalian are described and discussed in this context.

Trust in Government and the Boston Anti-Busing Movement

ACK OF government legitimacy frequently has been identified as a cause of political instability and emergence of social movements. Lipset (1959), for example, argues that a decline in legitimacy caused some West European governments to fall to fascist movements in 1930s. Similarly, Gurr (1968) maintains that low levels of legitimacy were a principal cause of political instability in 110 colonies and countries. A strong causal relationship between legitimacy and stability is assumed in many explanations of political conflict in United States. For instance, Parsons (1963) and Gamson (1968) argue that only a government that citizens trust can attain a society's collective goals and avert social disorder. These theorists would agree that people who do not trust their government are likely to become involved in a social movement. Existing research on this issue has taken two forms, cross-national comparisons and surveys of populations within industrialized nations. Research using cross-national data does show a significant relationship between legitimacy and political stability (Gurr, 1968; Bwy, 1972). These studies, however, are forced to rely on measures of legitimacy that are both highly indirect and based on dubious assumptions. Bwy's (1972) measures of legitimacy, for example, include an index of degree to which governments in his study are democratic, on assumption that democratic governments enjoy greater legitimacy. The available evidence, however, indicates that this premise is invalid. Authoritarian regimes may also engender widespread legitimacy (Moore, 1978: 399). In addition, political democracy is associated with a host of other factors, such as institutionalization of conflict management (Dahrendorf, 1966), so that any zero order relationship found between legitimacy and political violence is likely to be at least partially spurious. Gurr (1968) also relies on highly indirect measures of legitimacy, such as origins (foreign vs. indigenous) of national governments in his study. Giddens' point that the history of societies shows again and again that structural arrangements are often at first implemented by force. . . , and coercive measures are [then] used to produce and reinforce a new legitimacy, [original emphasis] ( 1968: 267) undercuts usefulness of Gurr's measure of legitimacy. More direct measures of legitimacy have been used in surveys of populations within U.S. and Western Europe. Several studies using survey data support hypothesis that citizens who do not trust government are more likely to support and participate in protest movements (Muller, 1972; Aberback and Walker, 1970; Paige, 1971; Muller and Jukam, 1977; Miller, 1974). Other studies indicate, however, that correlations between legitimacy and protest either are extremely weak (Marsh, 1977) or disappear after additional variables are controlled (Citrin, 1974). Finally, work on relationship between legitimacy and compliance with government policies has also produced inconsistent results. For example, Gatlin

Mid-cautleyan (Ashgill Series) trilobites and facies in the English lake distinct

During Zones 2 and 3 of the Cautleyan Stage (Ashgill Series) a marine transgressive sequence of conglomerates, sandstones (Longsleddale Formation), calcareous siltstone (Stile End and High Pike Haw Formations), mudstone (Torver Formation) and interbedded argillaceous limestone and calcareous mudstone (Applethwaite Formation) was deposited in the southern Lake District. Three tribolite associations are recognized within these rocks: a Proetid Association, found in the sandstones and calcareous siltstone; an Illaenid Association in the mudstone of the Torver Formation and at local, restricted horizons within the Applethwaite Formation; a Calymenid Association, found in the interbedded mudstone and limestone. It is suggested that strong causal relationships, both positive and negative, existed between the trilobites and facies type. Absences of particular trilobite groups do not appear, in the main, to be artifacts of sampling and, along with presences and abundances, are considered important to the understanding of the distribution of trilobites and their relationships with the facies type. Antipathetic relationships are noted between Prionocheilus and other calymenids; and between Tretaspis and both proetids and encrinurids. Because the trilobite associations could be recognised in the field prior to statistical analysis, it is possible to compare and contrast quantitative measures which summarize the relationships among localities and taxa. The following measures are calculated from abundances: correspondence, covariance (taxa) or average Euclidean distance squared (localities), and correlation coefficient (taxa) or standardized average Euclidean distance squared (localities). Of these the principal axes of the correspondence matrix separate the three associations much further than the other two measures. Considered as comparisons of taxa, correspondence values may offer a compromise, desirable in quantitative ecology, between emphasis on common taxa (covariance) and on rare taxa (correlation coefficient). When only occurrences are used, the trilobite associations are scattered more broadly and taxa behave more independently. The greater degree of interdependence of taxa when abundances are used is considered helpful to characterization of association in this study.

The relationship between transportation perceptions and behavior over time

The aim of this paper is to discuss cross-lagged panel analysis in terms of the causal inferences it generates about the relationship of beliefs about modes and mode choice behavior. Frequencies of use of the single-occupant automobile (SOA), bus and carpool, as well as beliefs about each of the modes, were collected from a sample of central business district commuters at two points in time. The belief variables for each mode were summed to form composite measures and were corrected for unreliability due to measurement error. Perceptions of each mode and the frequency of its use were analyzed for influences operating over time. A time interval was assumed to exist during which the variables causally operated on each other. It was assumed that the time necessary for an individual to change modes based on his perception was equivalent to the interval required for a person to alter perceptions based on his experience. The causal structure relating the two variables was also assumed to be stable over time. An additional assumption was required to distinguish between third variable effects, or spuriousness, and dual causation: if a third variable were to be causing the relationship, it would be operating at a relatively constant rate over time. A strong causal relationship was found to be operating between beliefs about SOA and bus and use of those modes over time. The relationship is mutually causative; beliefs determine behavior and behavior reinforces and changes perceptions. Analysis of the carpool data indicated that the causal structure had changed over time and could not be analyzed with this technique. In general, support is evidenced for an adaptation or learning process interpretation of the relationship between beliefs and mode choice behavior.

Inventory Behaviour in U.K. Manufacturing 1956-67

A good reason for studying inventory behaviour is that well specified inventory investment functions are essential in most short-run econometric models and are generally regarded as important determinants of the forecasting performance of such models. The existence of a strong causal relationship between U.K. imports and inventory changes provides a further reason for studying such short-run movements. However, for reasons concerning the relative scarcity of good quarterly or monthly stock data, the extreme difficulty of making realistic testable assumptions concerning expectations held by firms, the sheer unavailability of suitable sales anticipations data, the difficulty of having to take account of the interdependence between inventory and output decisions, little detailed research into short-run inventory and output behaviour appears to have been undertaken in the U.K.2 The purpose of this paper is to take a step in this direction. An attempt is made to analyse the data by industry groups and by types of assets. One of the reasons for doing this is related to the well known Abramovitz distinction between production to order and production for stocks.3 The stock changes of an industry producing to order rather than for stocks may be better explained either by a different set of variables or by the same set of variables measured at different points in time. For instance, the buffer stock motive may be an important reason for building up stocks of finished goods when sales are expected to rise, and such anticipated increases also have important behavioural implications for the future production plans of the firm. In contrast the firm producing to order would not act in the same manner because some of the factors which encourage production to order would also discourage or even prevent them from increasing buffer stocks when sales are expected to rise. For a firm producing for stocks it may be important to control the level of finished goods stocks; in the other case, as in industries producing heavy durable goods to particular specifications, such a stock may be both absolutely and relatively small and little or no attempt might be made to control its level. Such inter-industry differences would justify a study of inventory movements by industries. Disaggregation by types of assets is also desirable for several reasons. First, the composition of stocks held by industries differs considerably and one may wish to compare the effect of a change in one of the determinants on the different categories to see if broadly the same pattern of response exists.4 Second, such disaggregation might help to sort out the genuinely systematic influences from those which arise simply as a result of aggregation. Third, such disaggregation would help to test hypotheses concerning influences believed to affect particular categories of stocks, e.g. the effect of inventory smoothing on the behaviour of finished goods stocks. An obvious disadvantage of disaggregation is that one is forced to use data of somewhat poor qualtiy, and the ratio of noise to signal can be rather high. But this is something that we can only find out by trying.