Strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Research Articles

Controls on the Strength and Structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Climate Models

AbstractState‐of‐the‐art climate models simulate a large spread in the mean‐state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with strengths varying between 12 and 25 Sv. Here, we introduce a framework for understanding this spread by assessing the balance between the thermal‐wind expression and surface water mass transformation in the North Atlantic. The intermodel spread in the mean‐state AMOC strength is shown to be related to the overturning scale depth: climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have a stronger AMOC. We present a physically motivated scaling relationship that links intermodel variations in the scale depth to surface buoyancy fluxes and stratification in the North Atlantic, and thus connects North Atlantic surface processes to the interior overturning circulation. Climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic. These results offer a framework for reducing mean‐state AMOC biases in climate models.

Stochastic Bifurcation of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Midrange Future Climate Scenario with the NASA-GISS ModelE

Abstract A 10-member ensemble simulation with the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2–4.5 extended scenario. At 26°N, the bifurcation leads to 8 strong AMOC and 2 much weaker AMOC states, while at 48°N, it leads to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 nearly AMOC-off states, the latter lasting approximately 800 years. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated tipping points in AMOC through hosing experiments, i.e., prescribing sufficient freshwater inputs in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability (noise-induced bifurcation) associated with sea ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea after a slowing of the greenhouse gas forcing. While the AMOC strength follows the near shutdown of the Labrador Sea deep convection initially, the Irminger Sea salinity and deep mixing determine the timing of the AMOC recovery or near collapse at 48°N, which varies widely across the ensemble members. Other feedbacks such as ice-albedo, ice-evaporation, E − P, and the overturning salt-advection feedback play a secondary role that may enhance or reduce the primary mechanism which is ice melt. We believe this is the first time that a coupled climate model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble and might imply that there is a chance for significant and prolonged AMOC slow down due to internal variability of the system. Significance Statement We believe this is the first time that divergent AMOC behavior has been reported for an ensemble of Earth system model simulations using identical climate forcing and no prescribed freshwater perturbations. This response is a manifestation of noise-induced bifurcation, enhanced by feedbacks, revealing the role stochastic (or intrinsic) variability may play in AMOC stability.

Climate Response to Atlantic Meridional Energy Transport Variations

Abstract The climate responses to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations are investigated in a hierarchy of sensitivity experiments. We modify the baroclinic component of the North Atlantic Ocean currents online in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to reproduce typical AMOC multidecadal variability found in a preindustrial control simulation in the same model. An analogous experiment is also conducted using a slab-ocean experiment. The responses to a strong AMOC include a widespread warming in the Northern Hemisphere and a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean. The driving mechanism of climate responses is then investigated with the changes in the energy flows in the ocean and atmosphere. The large-scale atmospheric changes in the tropics are organized by an anomalous cross-equatorial Hadley circulation transporting energy southward and moisture and heat northward. Changes in the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation and heat transport, driven by the wind stress associated with the abnormal Hadley cell, damp the atmospheric responses. The lack of Indo-Pacific transport and ocean heat storage leads to amplified atmospheric changes in the slab-ocean experiments, which are further amplified by a positive feedback due to the interhemispheric antisymmetric changes in low cloud cover.

Tidal to decadal scale hydrodynamics at two contrasting cold-water coral sites in the Northeast Atlantic

Cold-water corals (CWCs) thrive in areas with complex and rough topography favoring the development of highly diverse benthic communities. Several biotic and abiotic factors including organic matter supply, temperature, bottom roughness and currents are important drivers of ecosystem structure and functioning in deep-sea environments at different spatial and temporal scales. Little is known, however, how basin-scale changes in the ocean climate affect these drivers at local scales. Here, we use high-resolution implementations of the hydrodynamic model ROMS-AGRIF for estimating characteristic spatial and temporal scales of local hydrodynamics in response to variations of basin-scale currents imposed by distinct changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the past century. We focus on two CWC communities on the SE Rockall Bank slope and at Condor Seamount. We considered two contrasting AMOC states that were identified from the 1958–2009 hindcast of the 1/20° resolution VIKING20 North Atlantic basin-scale ocean circulation model and used as boundary conditions for the high-resolution local area models. At SE Rockall Bank, variability of near-bottom currents in both regions was largely dominated by tidal dynamics, but strongly modified by AMOC induced basin-scale variations of water mass properties and bottom currents. During strong AMOC years, waters in the main CWC depth corridor (600–1200 m) were cooler and less saline but were dominated by stronger bottom currents when compared with conditions during weak AMOC years. At Condor Seamount, bottom currents were largely unaffected by AMOC related changes close to the summit at water depths < 400 m. Kinetic energy dissipation rates derived from the 3D near-bottom velocity field appeared to positively relate with the in-situ CWC distribution. Kinetic energy dissipation is therefore proposed as a mechanistic descriptor of CWC presence as it provides a more mechanistic view of hydrodynamics driving organic matter supply to filter and suspension-feeding communities.

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

We report a multi-centennial oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) simulated by the EC-Earth3 climate model under the pre-industrial climate. This oscillation has an amplitude of ~ 6 Sv and a period of ~ 150 years and significantly impacts the atmosphere. We find that it is a self-sustained low-frequency internal variability, driven by the accumulation of salinity anomalies in the Arctic and their release into the North Atlantic, affecting the water column stability and the deep convection. Sea ice plays a major role in creating the salinity anomaly in the Arctic, while the anomalous Arctic oceanic circulation, which drives the exchange of liquid freshwater between the Arctic and the open ocean, is the main responsible for its southward propagation. Interestingly, EC-Earth3 simulations with increased greenhouse concentrations, and therefore under a warmer climate, do not exhibit these strong AMOC fluctuations. We hypothesize that in a quasi-equilibrium climate with a global air surface temperature 4.5° higher than the pre-industrial period, the low amount of sea ice in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic is no longer able to trigger the mechanism.

Chaotic Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at Subannual Time Scales

Abstract This study describes the intra- to interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the relative dynamical contributions to the total variability in an eddy-resolving 1/12° resolution ocean model. Based on a 53-yr-long hindcast and two 4-yr-long ensembles, we assess the total AMOC variability as well as the variability arising from small differences in the ocean initial state that rapidly imprints on the mesoscale eddy fields and subsequently on large-scale features. This initial-condition-dependent variability will henceforth be referred to as “chaotic” variability. We find that intra-annual AMOC fluctuations are mainly driven by the atmospheric forcing, with the chaotic variability fraction never exceeding 26% of the total variance in the whole meridional Atlantic domain. To understand the nature of the chaotic variability we decompose the AMOC (into its Ekman, geostrophic, barotropic, and residual components). The barotropic and geostrophic AMOC contributions exhibit strong, partly compensating fluctuations, which are linked to chaotic spatial variations of currents over topography. In the North Atlantic, the largest chaotic divergence of ensemble members is found around 24°, 38°, and 64°N. At 26.5°N, where the AMOC is monitored by the RAPID–MOCHA array, the chaotic fraction of the AMOC variability is 10%. This fraction is slightly overestimated with the reconstruction methodology as used in the observations (∼15%). This higher fraction of chaotic variability is due to the barotropic contribution not being completely captured by the monitoring system. We look at the strong AMOC decline observed in 2009/10 and find that the ensemble spread (our measure for chaotic variability) was not particularly large during this event. Significance Statement The ocean is characterized by ubiquitous swirls (eddies) with diameters ranging from more than 100 km (low latitudes) to a few tens of kilometers (high latitudes). There is limited predictability of the timing and location of such eddies. They introduce unpredictable (“chaotic”) variability, which affects the ocean circulation on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Any observations of ocean currents contain a fraction of chaotic variability. However, it is, in general, not possible to quantify this chaotic variability from observations. Here we use a set of simulations performed with a state-of-the-art ocean computer model to estimate the fraction of chaotic variability in the amount of warm northward flowing near-surface seawater that delivers large amounts of heat to the North Atlantic, known to scientists as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We find that about 10%–25% of the AMOC variance is likely to be chaotic.

Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

It is well established that a collapse or strong reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would substantially cool the northern high latitudes. Here we show that there is a possibility that such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO2 removal and result in a temporary undershoot of a targeted temperature level. We find this behaviour in Earth system models that show a strong AMOC decline in response to anthropogenic forcing. Idealized simulations of CO2 removal with one of these models indicate that the timing of negative emissions relative to AMOC decline and recovery is key in setting the strength of the temporary cooling. We show that the pronounced temperature-fluctuations at high northern latitudes found in these simulations would entail considerable consequences for sea-ice and permafrost extent as well as for high latitude ecosystems.

NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP

Abstract. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) – which features interactive aerosol–cloud schemes and an isopycnic-coordinate ocean component with biogeochemistry – with anomaly assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) and T/S-profile observations using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We describe the Earth system component and the data assimilation (DA) scheme, highlighting implementation of new forcings, bug fixes, retuning and DA innovations. Notably, NorCPM1 uses two anomaly assimilation variants to assess the impact of sea ice initialization and climatological reference period: the first (i1) uses a 1980–2010 reference climatology for computing anomalies and the DA only updates the physical ocean state; the second (i2) uses a 1950–2010 reference climatology and additionally updates the sea ice state via strongly coupled DA of ocean observations. We assess the baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance with output contributed to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The NorESM1 simulations exhibit a moderate historical global surface temperature evolution and tropical climate variability characteristics that compare favourably with observations. The climate biases of NorESM1 using CMIP6 external forcings are comparable to, or slightly larger than those of, the original NorESM1 CMIP5 model, with positive biases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and Arctic sea ice thickness, too-cold subtropical oceans and northern continents, and a too-warm North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The biases in the assimilation experiments are mostly unchanged, except for a reduced sea ice thickness bias in i2 caused by the assimilation update of sea ice, generally confirming that the anomaly assimilation synchronizes variability without changing the climatology. The i1 and i2 reanalysis/hindcast products overall show comparable performance. The benefits of DA-assisted initialization are seen globally in the first year of the prediction over a range of variables, also in the atmosphere and over land. External forcings are the primary source of multiyear skills, while added benefit from initialization is demonstrated for the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and its extension to the Arctic, and also for temperature over land if the forced signal is removed. Both products show limited success in constraining and predicting unforced surface ocean biogeochemistry variability. However, observational uncertainties and short temporal coverage make biogeochemistry evaluation uncertain, and potential predictability is found to be high. For physical climate prediction, i2 performs marginally better than i1 for a range of variables, especially in the SPNA and in the vicinity of sea ice, with notably improved sea level variability of the Southern Ocean. Despite similar skills, i1 and i2 feature very different drift behaviours, mainly due to their use of different climatologies in DA; i2 exhibits an anomalously strong AMOC that leads to forecast drift with unrealistic warming in the SPNA, whereas i1 exhibits a weaker AMOC that leads to unrealistic cooling. In polar regions, the reduction in climatological ice thickness in i2 causes additional forecast drift as the ice grows back. Posteriori lead-dependent drift correction removes most hindcast differences; applications should therefore benefit from combining the two products. The results confirm that the large-scale ocean circulation exerts strong control on North Atlantic temperature variability, implying predictive potential from better synchronization of circulation variability. Future development will therefore focus on improving the representation of mean state and variability of AMOC and its initialization, in addition to upgrades of the atmospheric component. Other efforts will be directed to refining the anomaly assimilation scheme – to better separate internal and forced signals, to include land and atmosphere initialization and new observational types – and improving biogeochemistry prediction capability. Combined with other systems, NorCPM1 may already contribute to skilful multiyear climate prediction that benefits society.

Freshening, stratification and deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas during marine isotope stage 11

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a critical element of Earth's climate system and it is currently weakening. While this weakening is frequently explained by freshwater-driven disruptions to deep-water formation, uncertainties about the impacts of prolonged freshening limit our capacity to predict its future state. For example, during the warm and unusually long marine isotope stage (MIS) 11 interglacial, ∼424 to 374 ka, several lines of evidence suggest that a strong AMOC persisted concomitant with fresher-than-present conditions in the Nordic Seas, challenging our current understanding of deep-water formation. Here, we present new foraminifer-bound nitrogen isotope data along with multiple additional geochemical reconstructions of upper-ocean hydrography in the Nordic Seas during this anomalous interval. Our data suggest that a weak summer stratification was driven by the prolonged upper-ocean accumulation of freshwater beginning at the onset of the climatic optimum, ∼410 to 407 ka, which could have helped precondition the region for deep-water formation. A box model constrained by paleo-proxy data additionally suggests that the density gradient between the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas was favorable for the onset of deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas during the climatic optimum. It is thus likely that the Nordic Seas became a locus of deep-water formation around this time. Enhanced northern-hemisphere heating driven by deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas may have been important for delaying glacial conditions, thereby driving the extended warming characteristic of MIS 11. Such findings may also be relevant for near-future changes under a relatively fresher high-latitude North Atlantic.

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Abstract. We investigate the impact of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26∘ N on the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) a season ahead. We test the dependence of sea surface temperate (SST) predictive skill in initialised hindcasts on the phase of the AMOC at 26∘N, invoking a seesaw mechanism driven by AMOC fluctuations, with positive SSTAs north of 26∘ N and negative SSTAs south of 26∘ N after a strong AMOC and vice versa. We use initialised simulations with the MPI-ESM-MR (where MR is mixed resolution) seasonal prediction system. First, we use an assimilation experiment between 1979–2014 to confirm that the AMOC leads a SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, with the strongest AMOC fingerprints after 2–4 months. Going beyond previous studies, we find that the AMOC fingerprint has a seasonal dependence and is sensitive to the length of the observational window used, i.e. stronger over the last decade than for the entire time series back to 1979. We then use a set of ensemble hindcast simulations with 30 members, starting each February, May, August and November between 1982 and 2014. We compare the changes in skill between composites based on the AMOC phase a month prior to each start date to simulations without considering the AMOC phase and find subtle influence of the AMOC mechanism on seasonal SST prediction skill. We find higher subtropical SST hindcast skill at a 2–4-month lead time for June–July–August (JJA) SSTA composites based on the AMOC phase at May start dates than for the full time period. In other regions and seasons, we find a negligible impact of the AMOC seesaw mechanism on seasonal SST predictions due to atmospheric influence, calling for caution when considering such a mechanism. Our method shows that, for May start dates following strong AMOC phases, summer SST hindcast skill over the subtropics increases significantly compared to that of weak AMOC phases. This suggests that in the assessment of SST skill for a season ahead an eye should be kept on the initial AMOC state.

Centennial- to millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon changes during the MIS 5/4 transition revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records from southwestern China

During the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5/4 transition, the global climate changed from an interglacial to a glacial state, and hence it was characterized by high-amplitude climate changes. High-resolution stalagmite records can potentially improve our understanding of climate change during this transition. Here we use a high-precision 230Th-dated, 50-yr-resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Yangkou Cave, in Chongqing, southwestern China, to reveal centennial- to millennial-scale changes in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intensity during the interval of 98.8–59.3 kyr B.P. (thousands of years before 1950 CE). The record reveals five Chinese Interstadial events, namely CIS 18–22, and pronounced centennial-scale oscillations are evident and verified within these millennial-scale events. There are four centennial-scale events of monsoon strengthening in both CIS 21 and CIS 22, corresponding to Greenland Interstadial events GI 21 and GI 22. By contrast, CIS 18, CIS 19 and CIS 20 differ in both structure and onset time relative to the corresponding GI events during MIS 4. During MIS 5, reduced ice sheet and sea-ice cover and strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forced the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards its northern limit, which enhanced the teleconnection between the ASM and climate change in northern high latitudes. During MIS 5, the millennial-scale events (CIS 21 and 22) show a rapid atmospheric teleconnection between the ASM and the climate of northern high latitudes, but this coupling did not exist during MIS 4. The weakening of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, the expansion of ice sheets and sea ice, combined with the increased influence of Antarctica, may have led to the decoupling of the Asian summer monsoon and climate change in high northern latitudes.

Multicentennial Variability Driven by Salinity Exchanges Between the Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model

AbstractThe IPSL‐CM6‐LR atmosphere‐ocean coupled model exhibits a pronounced multicentennial variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), driven by delayed freshwater accumulation and release in the Arctic. The AMOC fluctuations are preceded by salinity‐driven density anomalies in the main deep convection sites in the Labrador and Greenland seas. During a strong AMOC, a combination of reduced sea ice volume and anomalous currents reduces the freshwater export from the Arctic and leads instead to a slow accumulation of freshwater in the central Arctic. Simultaneously, the saltier Atlantic inflow through the Barents Sea results in a positive salinity anomaly in the Eastern Arctic subsurface. When the surface Central Arctic freshwater pool finally reaches the Lincoln Sea, the oceanic currents around Greenland reorganize, leading to the export of the anomalous Arctic freshwater to the North Atlantic, enhancing the stratification in deep convection sites. The AMOC then decreases, positive salinity anomalies appear in the Central Arctic, and the variability switches to the opposite phase. These AMOC and sea ice fluctuations have broader climate impacts, with a strong AMOC leading to a mean warming of about 0.4°C north of 20°N, reaching up to 1°C in the Arctic lower troposphere during winter. In all seasons, a northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone is also simulated.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) simulations using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC4m)

Abstract. The second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) has attracted many climate modelling groups in its continuing efforts to better understand the climate of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP) when atmospheric CO2 was last closest to present-day levels. Like the first phase, PlioMIP1, it is an internationally coordinated initiative that allows for a systematic comparison of various models in a similar manner to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model intercomparison and model–data comparison now focus specifically on the interglacial at marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Ma), and experimental design is not only based on new boundary conditions but includes various sensitivity experiments. In this study, we present results from long-term model integrations using the MIROC4m (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model, developed at the institutes CCSR, NIES and FRCGC in Japan. The core experiment, with CO2 levels set to 400 ppm, shows a warming of 3.1 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with two-thirds of the warming being attributed to the increase in CO2. Although this level of warming is less than that in the equivalent PlioMIP1 experiment, there is slightly better agreement with proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data at PRISM3 (PRISM – Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) locations, especially in the northern North Atlantic where there were large model–data discrepancies in PlioMIP1. Similar spatial changes in precipitation and sea ice are seen and the Arctic remains ice-free in the summer in the core experiments of both phases. Comparisons with both the proxy SST data and proxy surface air temperature data from paleobotanical sites indicate a weaker polar amplification in model results. Unlike PlioMIP1, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is now stronger than that of the pre-industrial period, even though increasing CO2 tends to weaken it. This stronger AMOC is a consequence of a closed Bering Strait in the PlioMIP2 paleogeography. Also, when present-day boundary conditions are replaced by those of the Pliocene, the dependency of the AMOC strength on CO2 is significantly weakened. Sensitivity tests show that lower values of CO2 give a global SST which is overall more consistent with the PRISM3 SST field presented in PlioMIP1, while SSTs at many of the PRISM4 sites are still too high to be reconciled with any of the model results. On the other hand, tropical Pacific SST in the core experiment agrees well with more recent proxy data, which suggested that PRISM3 SST there was overestimated. Future availability of climate reconstructions from proxy data will continue to help evaluate model results. The inclusion of dynamical vegetation and the effects of all possible extreme orbital configurations outside KM5c should be considered in future experiments using MIROC4m for the mPWP.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Cabbeling Effect

AbstractNorth Atlantic meridional density gradients have been identified as a main driver of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Due to the cabbeling effect, these density gradients are increasingly dominated by temperature gradients in a warming ocean, and a direct link exists between North Atlantic mean temperature and AMOC strength. This paper quantifies the impact of this mechanism in the Stommel and Gnanadesikan models. Owing to different feedback mechanisms being included, a 1°C warming of North Atlantic mean ocean temperature strengthens the AMOC by 3% in the Gnanadesikan model and 8% in the Stommel model. In the Gnanadesikan model that increase is equivalent to a 4% strengthening of Southern Hemisphere winds and can compensate for a 14% increase in the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, mean temperature strongly controls a freshwater forcing threshold for the strong AMOC state, suggesting that the cabbeling effect needs to be considered to explain past and future AMOC variability.

The importance of North Atlantic Ocean transports for seasonal forecasts

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a main driver for predictability at decadal time scales, but has been largely ignored in the context of seasonal forecasts. Here, we show compelling evidence that AMOC initialization can have a direct and strong impact on seasonal forecasts. Winter reforecasts with SEAS5, the current operational seasonal forecasting system by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, exhibit errors of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the western part of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre that are strongly correlated with decadal variations in the AMOC initial conditions. In the early reforecast period 1981–1996, too warm SST coincide with an overly strong AMOC transporting excessive heat into the region. In the ocean reanalyses providing the forecast initial conditions, excessive heat transport is balanced by additional surface cooling from relaxing towards observed SST, and therefore the fit to observations is acceptable. However, the additional surface cooling contributes to enhanced deep convection and strengthens the AMOC, thereby establishing a feedback loop. In the forecasts, where the SST relaxation is absent, the balance is disrupted, and fast growth of SST errors ensues. The warm SST bias has a strong local impact on surface air temperature, mean sea-level pressure, and precipitation patterns, but remote impact is small. In the late reforecast period 2001–2016, neither the SST in the western North Atlantic nor the AMOC show large biases. The non-stationarity of the bias prevents an effective forecast calibration and causes an apparent loss of skill in the affected region. The case presented here demonstrates the importance of correctly initializing slowly varying aspects of the Earth System such as the AMOC in order to improve forecasts on seasonal and shorter time scales.

Extracting the Buoyancy-Driven Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractVariations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) driven by buoyancy forcing are typically characterized as having a low-frequency time scale, interhemispheric structure, cross-equatorial heat transport, and linkages to the strength of Northern Hemisphere gyre circulations and the Gulf Stream. This study first tests whether these attributes ascribed to the AMOC are reproduced in a coupled model that is mechanically decoupled and, hence, is only buoyancy coupled. Overall, the mechanically decoupled model reproduces these attributes, with the exception that in the subpolar gyre, buoyancy drives AMOC variations on interannual to multidecadal time scales, yet only the multidecadal variations penetrate into the subtropics. A stronger AMOC is associated with a strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere gyre circulations, Gulf Stream, and northward oceanic heat transport throughout the basin. We then determine whether the characteristics in the mechanically decoupled model can be recovered by low-pass filtering the AMOC in a fully coupled version of the same model, a common approach used to isolate the buoyancy-driven AMOC. A major conclusion is that low-pass filtering the AMOC in the fully coupled model reproduces the buoyancy-driven AMOC pattern and most of the associated attributes, but not the statistics of the temporal variability. The strength of the AMOC–Gulf Stream connection is also not reproduced. The analyses reveal caveats that must be considered when choosing indexes and filtering techniques to estimate the buoyancy-driven AMOC. Results also provide insight on the latitudinal dependence of time scales and drivers of ocean circulation variability in coupled models, with potential implications for measurement and detection of the buoyancy-driven AMOC in the real world.

Investigating the Role of the Tibetan Plateau in the Formation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) over the Eurasian continent has significant effects on both regional and global climate. It can even affect the remote Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), as shown in this study. Through coupled modeling experiments, we demonstrate that removing the TP immediately weakens the meridional wind over East Asia, resulting in stronger westerlies in the midlatitudes. The stronger westerlies enhance the southward Ekman flow and surface latent and sensible heat losses in the subpolar North Atlantic, cooling the surface ocean and leading to stronger North Atlantic deep-water formation and stronger AMOC during the first few decades after the TP removal. At the same time, accompanying the weakened trade winds in the tropical Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic, freshening the surface ocean and triggering a weakening of the AMOC. The AMOC weakening in turn results in southward expansion and melting of sea ice, providing more freshwater to the North Atlantic, which furthers the weakening of the AMOC. The positive feedback between the AMOC and sea ice eventually leads to AMOC shutdown. We illustrate that there would be no AMOC without the TP. These results call for a revisiting of how ocean circulation and global climate may have responded to the TP uplift and other tectonic changes on the geological time scale.

On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming

According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it.Social Media : The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering

AbstractThe Greenland ice sheet is expected lose at least 90% of its current volume if ice sheet summer temperatures warm by around 1.8 °C above pre‐industrial. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection might slow Greenland ice sheet melting and sea level rise by reducing summer temperature and insolation; however, such schemes could also reduce precipitation and affect large‐scale climate drivers such as the Atlantic Meridional Over‐turning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier work found that AMOC increased under geoengineering and that might lead to greater mass loss from Greenland than under greenhouse gas forcing alone. We simulated Greenland ice sheet climates using four Earth system models running the stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection experiment GeoMIP G4 and the CMIP RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios that were then used to drive the surface energy and mass balance model, SEMIC. Simulated runoff is 20% lower under G4 than RCP4.5, while under RCP8.5 it is 17% higher. The mechanism is through increased Arctic sea ice concentration and reduced humidity leading to surface cooling of the ablation zone. Reduced absorption of outgoing longwave radiation caused by hydrological cycle weakening dominates associated decreases in precipitation under geoengineering and stronger AMOC than under RCP4.5. An ice dynamics model simulates 15% lower ice losses under G4 than RCP4.5. Thus, total sea level rise by 2070 from the Greenland ice sheet under G4 geoengineering is about 15–20% lower than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Uncertainty in the Evolution of Climate Feedback Traced to the Strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractIn most coupled climate models, effective climate sensitivity increases for a few decades following an abrupt CO2 increase. The change in the climate feedback parameter between the first 20 years and the subsequent 130 years is highly model dependent. In this study, we suggest that the intermodel spread of changes in climate feedback can be partially traced to the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Models with stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation recovery tend to project more amplified warming in the Northern Hemisphere a few decades after a quadrupling of CO2. Tropospheric stability then decreases as the Northern Hemisphere gets warmer, which leads to an increase in both the lapse‐rate and shortwave cloud feedbacks. Our results suggest that constraining future ocean circulation changes will be necessary for accurate climate sensitivity projections.