As a newly developed marine drilling technology, riserless drilling (RD) shows obvious advantages for use in deep-water and ultra-deepwater petroleum resources exploitation. However, the available published hydraulic analysis models for RD are rare or imperfect, especially regarding the lack of accounting for the out-of-hole time. To analyse the actual flow characteristics of drilling mud in an RD system after the surface mud pumping is complete, this paper presents a new hydraulic simulation model of the U-tubing effect. The specific calculation methods of pressure loss in the drilling string and the wellbore annulus at different flow regimes (turbulent flow, transition flow, and laminar flow) are provided based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheological model. A case study shows that a critical volumetric flow rate (CVFR) exists for a specific RD system to just cause the standpipe pressure to become zero. Only when the initial pump circulation rate is greater than the CVFR can it ensure the normal operation of the RD. Otherwise, the fluid mud level inside the drilling string will drop, resulting in the u-tubing effect. In the first few seconds after the surface pump is shut down, the wellbore transient flow rate is influenced strongly by the initial circulation rate. When the initial flow rate is less than the CVFR, the transient flow rate is accelerated during the first few seconds, which is not the expected behaviour. The influence of the drilling string size, fluid density and rheological parameters of the drilling fluid on the transient flow rate and the Bottom Hole Pressure (BHP) are also considered. The results proved that the smaller values of the rheological parameters are beneficial for reducing the fluctuation of the BHP during the U-tubing process.