Strike Duration Research Articles

The Effect of Multinational Institutions on Strike Activity in Canada

The author estimates the influence of foreign corporate ownership and international unionism on strike activity in Canadian manufacturing between 1965 and 1985, controlling for several other determinants of strike activity that were largely ignored in previous studies. He finds, contrary to the results of other studies, that the incidence and duration of strikes did not differ significantly between foreign-owned and domestically owned firms or between international and national unions. Strike incidence was significantly lower, however, among unions affiliated with the AFL-CIO than among unions affiliated with a Canadian federation.

The Empirical Relations between Employers' Striker Replacement Strategies and Strike Duration

The Empirical Relations between Employers' Striker Replacement Strategies and Strike Duration

The Empirical Relations between Employers' Striker Replacement Strategies and Strike Duration

This analysis of General Accounting Office survey data on strikes in 1985 and 1989 shows that employers' permanent replacement of striking workers was associated with longer strikes than would otherwise have occurred. Furthermore, the authors find that simply announcing the intent to replace strikers was also associated with longer strikes. Finally, when employers permanently replaced strikers, the probability of settlement fell approximately 30%. These findings are consistent with models focusing on the joint costs of a strike and on private information in the bargaining process.

Strike Duration and Strike Size

Some theories of strike activity suggest that the settlement probability of a strike depends on the number of workers involved in the strike. Additionally, much recent em- pirical research on strikes has been constrained by data availability to look only at strikes in large bargaining units. It is natural to ask, therefore, whether strike size systematically influences strike duration, and whether this question poses problems of interpretation for studies confined to samples of large strikes. This paper uses Canadian strike data to ex- amine these questions. We find that size is an important determinant of strike duration and also that studies of strike duration based only on large strikes can yield results that are not representative of the influences for all strikes.

Strike Duration and the Degree of Disagreement

Strike Duration and the Degree of Disagreement

Influences on the Duration of Wars, Strikes, Riots, and Family Arguments

Utility theory has been frequently applied in the analyses of the outbreak of war. The present study extends the application of utility theory to conflict duration. The authors consider how the perceived utility of continuing conflict changes while conflicts are under way, and posit that conflicts end when the utility of continuing is less than the utility of surrender. Predictions developed from the theory are tested, using hazard models, on duration data from actual wars, strikes, riots, and family arguments. Consistent with utility theory, the likelihood of wars and strikes ending is found to decrease while they are under way, exhibiting a tendency for these conflicts to become entrenched. In sharp contrast to this, but consistent with utility theory, riots and family arguments are more likely to end the longer they last. Size of conflict and dispute issue are shown to effect duration in some circumstances. The results offer a way of explaining how conflicts between “rational” organizations become entrenched and resistant to resolution. Implications for efforts to reduce conflict duration are discussed.

Bayesian inference in limited dependent variable models. An application to measuring strike duration

AbstractThis paper presents a straightforward set of Bayesian techniques for analyzing models involving limited dependent variables; the techniques are demonstrated in an analysis of Kennan's (1985) data on contract strikes in US manufacturing. The data are analyzed by deriving posterior distributions—including probability distributions—of hazard functions for strike duration using numerical Monte Carlo methods. The distributions are employed to derive coverage intervals for hazard functions, to assess the relative plausibility of nonnested hypotheses concerning the shape of the functions, and to assess the impact of industrial production on duration.

US Strike Activity in Three Professions

Data are analysed on strike and normal working durations from three professions – the public school system, electronics, and seaports over the period 1946 to 1987. The duration of strikes experienced immediately prior to negotiation is shown to have a positive effect on a bargaining unit′s duration of normal working during a current contract negotiation. For all three professions, the primary finding of this study is that longer duration strikes in time t produce longer normal working time at time t + 1.

Lengthy Strikes: Do they Influence the Duration of Peace in the Future?

In this article the data are analysed on strike and normal working durations from three industries – the public school system, electronics, and seaports – over the period 1946 to 1987. The duration of strikes experienced immediately prior to negotiation is shown to have a positive effect on a bargaining unit′s duration of normal working during a current contract negotiation. For all three industries the impact of strike duration was greatest immediately following a strike; the longer the duration of the strike, the longer the ensuing normal working time.

Cyclical Fluctuations in Strike Activity

This paper uses a unique data set of contracts and strikes to address the old question of the relationship between the business cycle and strike activity. It also examines the factors that determine when strikes occur and proposes a new test of the recent private information models of strikes. The data set contains over 7000 contracts covering both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries for the twelve year period 1970 to 1981. Contrary to earlier findings there is no simple correlation between fluctuations in the business cycle and either the number of strikes, strike incidence or strike duration. However, once specific industry effects are controlled for then strike incidence but not strike duration varies procylically. As suggested by the Total Cost theory of strikes both demand conditions by industry and labor market conditions are important factors in determining strike activity. The level of demand by industry as proxied by the industry producer price index has a negative effect on strike incidence but a positive effect on strike duration. This opposite movement of strike incidence and strike duration which appears in this paper is not predicted by any of the theoretical models of strikes. Higher national unemployment reduces the probability of a strike, but it is regional unemployment and industry specific unemployment that have the greater negative effect on strike incidence. The recent private information models of strikes suggest that an important determinant of strikes is a variable observable to the firm but unobservable to the union. In this paper I assume that the firm can predict future demand conditions better than the union. In this case the difference between actual realized future prices and the forecasts of those prices made today can be used as a proxy for this unobservable variable. This paper shows that neither the level nor the variance of this residual has any significant effect on strike activity. However, both the variance of past prices and the variance of past unemployment have a signifcant positive effect on strike incidence. This suggests that some form of uncertainty is an important determinant of strikes.

Strikes and Wages: A Test of an Asymmetric Information Model

This paper describes a simple model of labor disputes based on the hypothesis that unions use strikes to infer the profitability of the firm. The model posits the existence of a negatively sloped resistance curve between wages and strike duration. In addition, it offer a series of predictions relating wage and strike outcomes to changes in the expected profitability of the firm and changes in the alternative opportunities of striking workers. These implications are tested using data on wage outcomes, strike probabilities, and strike durations for a large sample of collective bargaining agreements.

The Effects of Public Policy on Strike Duration

Hazard-function estimates are utilized to analyze the effect of numerous public policy variables on strike duration, based on 7,546 strikes in Canada between 1967 and 1985. We find that only the mandatory strike vote substantially reduced conditional duration. However, the policy variables generally had a more favorable effect on reducing strike incidence, so that on net they tended to reduce unconditional duration (incidence times conditional duration). Specifically, reduced unconditional duration was associated with the existence of conciliation and the requirement of a mandatory strike vote, but the prohibition on replacement workers had a perverse effect.

Strategic bargaining models and interpretation of strike data

Attrition, screening, and signalling models of strategic bargaining are characterized in terms of their predictions about the incidence, mean duration, and settlement rates of strikes and the terms of wage settlements. These predictions are compared with the general features observed in empirical studies of strikes in Canada and the United States. Conclusions are drawn about the types of models capable of generating these features, and about the conformity of the models to the evidence. Methods are described for computing the numerical examples used to illustrate the models.

Specification testing in censored regression models: Parametric and semiparametric methods

We define a hierarchy of parametric and semiparametric specifications for censored regression models that is ordered according to the strength of the assumptions that are made. We review the estimation techniques and specification tests that are available at each level of the hierarchy. The estimation and testing procedures are illustrated by applying them to a model of strike duration. Several tests (some graphical) are able to detect errors in standard parametric specifications even in the presence of fairly heavy censoring, but two distinct semiparametric specifications leading to different substantive inferences cannot be rejected. In addition, the conditional mean as a prediction of the dependent variable is highly sensitive to specification errors, whereas the conditional median is not.

The Impact of Bargainer Experience on Teacher Strikes

Using data on Pennsylvania public schools for the period 1978–84, the authors investigate the effects of bargainer experience on the frequency and duration of strikes. They find that increases in the negotiation experience of the chief or principal bargainer on either side, as well as increases in the experience of the two bargainers combined, reduce both the frequency and duration of strikes, suggesting that experienced bargainers are more adept than inexperienced bargainers at learning the minimum payoffs demanded by their opponents and conveying their own true positions. Also, strikes are less likely to occur the more equal the experience levels of the two chief bargainers.

The roles of vision and olfaction in mate location by males of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans

The roles of visual and/or olfactory stimuli in eliciting mating responses from male Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood were examined, using a system for automatically recording the number and duration of mating strikes made towards decoys, under controlled conditions. The results confirm that there is no olfactory component of the female sex recognition pheromone sensed by the male antennae, and the attraction of males to females appears to be visual. The absence of male-male mating strikes was the result of the absence of female sex-pheromone, rather than the presence of a repellent mating deterrent in the male cuticle. Experiments with coloured, artificial, sex-pheromone-dosed, cotton decoys showed that colour had only weak effects on attractiveness and number of encounters with decoys, and that no colour caused significant enhancement of mating responses over those shown to decoy females.

Dynamic Models for the Time Series of Industrial Conflict in the Labour Market

ABSTRACT: In the aim to investigate the behaviour of some indicators for the industrial conflict and to detect the relation between such variables and the cost of labour in Italy, this paper suggests the use of Box‐Jenkins’time series analysis. By fitting a different stochastic process for each series, it can be shown that every indicator gives a different kind of information about the industrial conflict, so that they can't be indifferently substituted by each other. In a second step, cross correlation function estimates between cost of labour and each indicator suggest the different role played by 'strike frequency’and strike duration during any contract renewal.

Estimation of Percentile Residual Life

We initiate a nonparametric, large sample estimation theory for the percentile residual lifetime. We introduce the empirical percentile residual life process and determine its asymptotic distribution, resulting in asymptotically distribution-free confidence intervals and confidence bands for the percentile residual lifetime. We illustrate the methods using strike duration data from the work of D. C. Schmittlein and D. G. Morrison.

Australian Strike Activity in an International Context: 1964-85

The relative level of strike activity delivered by the Australian industrial relations system is central to current debate. The most simple method of addressing this issue is to make international comparisons of average working days lost per employee from industrial disputation. This paper reports these data for fourteen OECD countries for 1964-85. Simple comparison of strikes is far from an ideal method for judging the relative efficacy of countries' industrial relations systems, for two main reasons. The first is that different criteria are used across countries for inclusion or collection of strike data. Australian statistics are relatively comprehensive, implying that some part of Australia's relatively high level of strike activity is attributable to measurement. Second, macroeconomic variables influence the incidence and duration of strikes. This simple observation renders suspect the use of international comparisons of these disputes data as reflections only of industrial relations systems, since differences in macroeconomic experience will manifest themselves, to some extent, in these data. Through control for inflation and unemployment, among other things, a more accurate assessment of the Australian industrial relations system in an international context is made possible. The Australian system apparently delivers lower, or about the same, strike activity as culturally and politically similar countries. Overall there is no reason to believe that Australia is markedly different from the international norm.

An Empirical Test of an Asymmetric Information Model of Strikes

Recent developments in the theory of strategic bargaining demonstrate how informational asymmetries can lead to prolonged and costly bargaining. These models can be applied to contract negotiations, yielding an economic theory of strikes. To date, however, few empirical tests of these models have been carried out. In this paper, a set of predictions concerning the incidence and unconditional duration of strikes is derived from a simple bargaining model in which the union is uncertain about the firm's future profitability. These predictions are then tested on a micro data set of major U.S. contract negotiations that took place from 1973 to 1977.