Stress Drop Events Research Articles

Time-Dependent Stress Drop Variations After Large Earthquakes Along the North Chilean Megathrust

ABSTRACT We observe a time dependence of the median stress drop in spatiotemporal proximity of large earthquakes. The median stress drop of the early aftershock seismicity is elevated for only a few days after the mainshocks and then rapidly falls back to the long-term average. This short-term variation has remained largely unnoticed by previous studies, presumably due to their usually low temporal resolution. Our study uses a recent extensive stress drop catalog, which contains more than 51,000 events from northern Chile. It includes observations from three Mw>7 megathrust earthquakes, namely the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla earthquake, the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake, and its largest Mw 7.6 aftershock, as well as another eleven Mw>6 earthquakes. A detailed analysis reveals that the elevated stress drop is not primarily linked to an increase of seismic moment during the early aftershock phase but is rather attributable to higher measured corner frequencies in the corresponding time interval. We propose two possible explanations: (1) The high stress changes induced by the mainshock allow failure of strong structures at or adjacent to the main rupture area, which produces higher stress drop events. After a few days, afterslip activity has reduced the in situ stresses and thereby the failure potential of the stronger regions. (2) The mainshock disturbs the fluid-sealing plate interface, allowing overpressured fluids to escape, exhibiting the so-called fault-valve behavior. The effect appears to persist only for several days until the sealing effect is restored and average stress drop levels are recovered.

Different earthquake nucleation conditions revealed by stress drop and b-value mapping in the northern Chilean subduction zone

Stress drop is an earthquake property indicative for the characteristic relation of slip to fault dimension. It is furthermore affected by fault strength, fault topography, the presence of fluids, rupture size, slip, and velocity. In this article, the stress drop image of an entire subduction zone, namely for the seismically highly active northernmost part of Chile, is combined with mapped b-values and their corresponding magnitude distribution in order to better constrain the conditions under which earthquakes of different provenances may nucleate. The underlying recent earthquake catalog contains over 180,000 events, covering 15 years of seismicity, from which more than 50,000 stress drop estimates were computed. Their spatial average segments the subduction zone into different parts, i.e., average stress drop between seismotectonic areas is different, although this difference is small compared to the natural scatter of stress drop values. By considering stress drop variations, b-value map, magnitude distribution, and thermal models, candidate earthquake nucleation mechanisms are identified which can explain the observed distributions. This is done for two exemplary regions: (1) The plate interface, where principally lower stress drop events are found, while at the same time a high spatial heterogeneity of stress drop values is observed. This indicates relatively smooth or lubricated rupture surfaces, and locally it suggests the existence of alternating regions controlled by strong asperities, weaker material, or creep. (2) The highly active intermediate depth (ID) seismicity region, where the variation of stress drop and b-value point to a gradual change of nucleation mechanism from dehydration embrittlement at the top of the ID cloud, over dehydration driven stress transfer in its central part, to thermal runaway shear mechanisms at its bottom. In both cases, the combination of stress drop and b-value distribution helps to better understand the origin and the differences of the observed seismicity.

Analysis of stress drop behavior for stick-slip friction based on total reflection observation experiment

This paper employed an experimental system based on the total reflection method to study the contact interface behavior during the stress drop process of stick-slip friction. The two-stage drop behavior was found for the first time, namely, the tangential load during the stick-slip stress drop underwent two successive drops in different rates and magnitudes, instead of a single drop. A critical location at the contact interface, where the contact areas on both sides of this location exhibited different contact behaviors during stress drop events, was found. An image recognition method was present to identify the boundary between the stick and sliding zones of the interface, the impact of stress drop events on interface contact, and the propagation velocity and direction of rupture fronts. Finally, the mechanism for the interesting phenomenon described in this paper was preliminarily discussed. The research may be useful for better understanding the stick-slip friction and its stress drop events.

The 28 October 2022 Mw 3.8 Goesan Earthquake Sequence in Central Korea: Stress Drop, Aftershock Triggering, and Fault Interaction

ABSTRACT We identified the causative fault of the 2022 Goesan, Korea, earthquake sequence based on the precise relocation of the sequence that revealed a 0.8 km-long fault plane striking east-southeast–west-northwest. The fault plane encompasses the largest foreshock, the mainshock, and the majority of the aftershocks. The orientation of the fault plane is consistent with the left-lateral strike-slip motion along the east-southeast (106°) striking nodal plane of the focal mechanism. The Jogok fault system recently mapped in the source area runs through the mainshock epicenter with a consistent strike and left-lateral strike-slip motion, which suggests that it is the likely causative fault of the 2022 Mw 3.8 Goesan earthquake sequence. It is a rare case of assigning a causative fault for a small-sized (Mw 3.8) earthquake with some confidence in a typical stable continental region setting, albeit no surface break observed due to deep focal depth (~13 km) and the small size of the event. Aftershocks on the main fault plane, and on the adjacent subparallel fault patches seemed to be triggered by the increase in Coulomb stress caused by the mainshock. Two large aftershocks on the subparallel fault patches show slightly higher stress drops than the large foreshock and mainshock on the main fault plane, likely due to high frictional strength on those fault patches. Events of the 2022 Goesan earthquake sequence progressed rapidly in time and appear to be high stress-drop events compared with other earthquakes that occurred in other regions in Korea, probably due to the long quiescent period in the Goesan earthquake epicentral region.

Slip intermittency and dwell fatigue in titanium alloys: a discrete dislocation plasticity analysis

Slip intermittency and stress oscillations in titanium alloy Ti–7Al–O that were observed using in-situ far-field high energy X-ray diffraction microscopy (ff-HEDM) are investigated using a discrete dislocation plasticity (DDP) model. The mechanistic foundation of slip intermittency and stress oscillations are shown to be dislocation escape from obstacles during stress holds, governed by a thermal activation constitutive law. The stress drop events due to <a>-basal slip are larger in magnitude than those along <a>-prism, which is a consequence of their differing rate sensitivities, previously found from micropillar testing. It is suggested that interstitial oxygen suppresses stress oscillations by inhibiting the thermal activation process. Understanding of these mechanisms is of benefit to the design and safety assessment of jet engine titanium alloys subjected to dwell fatigue.

Eigenvalue analysis of stress-strain curve of two-dimensional amorphous solids of dispersed frictional grains with finite shear strain.

The stress-strain curve of two-dimensional frictional dispersed grains interacting with a harmonic potential without considering the dynamical slip under a finite strain is determined by using eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian matrix. After the configuration of grains is obtained, the stress-strain curve based on the eigenvalue analysis is in almost perfect agreement with that obtained by the simulation, even if there are plastic deformations caused by stress avalanches. Unlike the naive expectation, the eigenvalues in our model do not indicate any precursors to the stress-drop events.

First-contact-breaking distributions in strained disordered crystals.

We derive exact probability distributions for the strain (ε) at which the first stress drop event occurs in uniformly strained disordered crystals, with quenched disorder introduced through polydispersity in particle sizes. We characterize these first stress drop events numerically as well as theoretically and identify them with the first-contact-breaking event in the system. Our theoretical results are corroborated with numerical simulations of quasistatic volumetric strain applied to disordered near-crystalline configurations of athermal soft particles. We develop a general technique to determine the distribution of strains at which the first stress drop events occur, through an exact mapping between the cumulative distribution of first-contact-breaking events and the volume of a convex polytope whose dimension is determined by the number of defects N_{d} in the system. An exact numerical computation of this polytope volume for systems with small numbers of defects displays a remarkable match with the distribution of strains generated through direct numerical simulations. Finally, we derive the distribution of strains at which the first stress drop occurs, assuming that individual contact-breaking events are uncorrelated, which accurately reproduces distributions obtained from direct numerical simulations.

Laboratory study of the effects of grouted rebar bolts on shear failure of structural planes in deep hard rocks

Rock hazards induced by shear slip along discontinuities are often encountered in deep hard rock excavations. At present, grouted rebar bolts are still the most widely used supporting tools in underground engineering. However, as the in-situ stress increases, the anchoring effect of bolts on rock discontinuities change significantly compared with that in a shallow environment. It is of great significance to study the influence of rebar bolts on the shear failure characteristics of structural planes under high stress to ensure the safety of engineering construction at deeper depths. In this study, shear tests were conducted on split granite structural planes secured with bolts under various normal stresses to investigate the supporting effect of the rebar bolts on the hard rock structural planes under high stress. The stress, deformation, acoustic emission, and rock failure characteristics in the tests were fully investigated and analyzed, and the effects of the rebar bolts on the dynamic failure of the hard rock structural plane and a simplified model were investigated through comparison with the shear failure characteristics of unreinforced granite joints. The experimental results show that when a bolt is inserted through a highly stressed granite structural plane, before the bolt fractures, it can change the slip mode of the structural plane from stick-slip to stable-slip, which effectively delays the occurrence of shear-induced dynamic failure. After the bolt fractures, the interaction between the bolt and structural plane causes the stress drop events to increase, but it greatly weakens the energy emitted by a single shear stress drop, thus effectively reducing the intensity and destructiveness of the dynamic failure during shearing. The findings of this study have significant implications for the management and control of structural-slip rock hazards in deep rock tunnels.

Stress dissipation and seismic potential in the central seismic gap of the north-west Himalaya

• One-third of the earthquakes in CSG show stress drop <1 bar. • High stress drop events are absent in the upper 10 km of the crust. • Source parameter values are lower in Kumaon than CSG. • Kangra and Kumaon segments can be tipped to host a future great earthquake. The central seismic gap (CSG) of the Himalaya continues to pose the ever more intriguing question of whether it has the potential to host a devastating earthquake. To address the issue, we examine the distribution and dissipation of post-seismic stress in the northwest segment of the CSG. This study computes the source parameters of 47 local earthquake events (3.5 ≤ M L ≤ 5.5) in the Garhwal-Kumaon Himalaya during the period 2016–2018 using P-wave spectral analysis. In addition, we compile the stress drop results for 326 earthquake events from numerous studies carried out across the seismic gap, to estimate the source parameter variation. The estimated seismic moments (10 12 ≤ M o ≤ 10 16 N-m), source radii (0.3 ≤ r ≤ 1.3 km) and stress drops (0.1 ≤ σ ≤ 40.6 bar) for Kumaon are observed to be significantly lower than the overall values for the CSG (10 10 ≤ Mo ≤ 10 20 N-m; 0.1 ≤ r ≤ 13.2 km; 0.01 ≤ σ ≤ 77 bar), showing incomplete dissipation of the accumulated stress. About one-third of the earthquakes in the CSG show very low stress drop (σ < 1 bar). The high stress drop events are predominant along the Main Himalayan Thrust at mid-crustal depths, with the upper ∼ 10 km of the brittle crust rarely hosting any big event. Based on the analysis, the scaling relation M o f c 3.677 = 6E + 15 N-m/s 3 has been proposed for the Kumaon region. Other scaling relations have been developed between important source parameters (M L , M w , M o , and σ) that may serve as valuable inputs for assessing the earthquake hazard in the region. The estimated b-value for the Kumaon Himalaya estimated from the local earthquake catalog is 0.64 ± 0.08, which is low compared to the Garhwal and rest of the NW Himalaya. The overall b-value of the CSG region computed from the ISC catalog is 0.62 ± 0.06. From the stress drop and b-value variation in the CSG, the Kangra and the Kumaon segments are identified to be potentially hazardous zones for a future great earthquake.

Stress Drop Variations of Induced Earthquakes near the Dallas–Fort Worth Airport, Texas

Abstract We estimate stress drops for injection-induced earthquakes near the Dallas–Fort Worth Airport in the Fort Worth basin (FWB), Texas, to investigate source properties in response to fluid injection. The stress drops for the Airport sequence show three unique characteristics compared to those estimated for other earthquake sequences in the FWB: (1) stress drops have lower mean and median values; (2) stress drops increase with moment magnitude; and (3) stress drops increase in size over the first 1.5 km in radial distance from the injection point. The low stress drop Airport events occurred shortly after the initiation of injection near a fault within hundreds of meters of the well. Pore pressure perturbations in the Airport area are 1 order of magnitude lower than those from the other sequences, suggesting that absolute pore pressure changes may not be the main factors of stress drop variations. We suggest that the low stress drop events may be related to transition from aseismic slip to seismic rupture previously observed in laboratory and field experiments.

Spatio‐Temporal Evolution of Earthquake Static Stress Drop Values in the 2016–2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence

AbstractThe static stress drop of an earthquake is an indicator of the stress state of a specific fault before rupture initiation. The stress state is primarily controlled by the ambient stress field, fault strength, fault complexity, and the presence of fluids. This study aims to investigate the spatio‐temporal distribution of static stress drop values of the 2016–2017 multi‐fault rupture seismic sequence in central Italy, which includes three earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.9 (Amatrice, Visso, and Norcia earthquakes), and over 95,000 aftershocks (M 0.5–6.5). We estimate stress drop values using a circular crack model with corner frequency and seismic moment estimates from single‐spectra fitting, a cluster‐event method, and spectral‐ratio fitting. The temporal distribution of stress drop values shows an apparent increase of stress drop following a large earthquake (Mw ≥ 5.9). The spatial distribution shows comparably high stress drop values for early aftershocks surrounding the mainshock rupture area. High stress drop events correlate with fault complexity, such as fault intersections at depth and reactivated thrust fronts. We observe a constant stress drop for Mw ≥ ∼3, in contrast to previous studies. Instrument response and signal‐to‐noise bandwidth limitations likely govern the observed decrease in stress drop with decreasing magnitude for events with Mw ≤ 3. The spatio‐temporal distribution of stress drop values in a complex seismic sequence could support a more complete understanding of the earthquake rupture process and the evolution of seismic sequences. It could also highlight areas where stress loading is focused, which would have implications for short and intermediate term seismic hazard estimates.

Tracking Twin Boundary Jerky Motion at Nanometer and Microsecond Scales

AbstractThe jerky motion of twin boundaries in the ferromagnetic shape memory alloy Ni‐Mn‐Ga is studied by simultaneous measurements of stress and magnetic emissions (ME). A careful design of the experimental conditions results in an approximately linear relationship between the measured ME voltage and the nm‐scale volumes exhibiting twinning transformation during microsecond‐scale abrupt “avalanche” events. This study shows that the same distributions of ME avalanches, related to features of jerky twin boundary motion, are found both during and between stress drop events. Maximum likelihood analysis of statistical distributions of several variables reveals a good fit to power laws truncated by exponential functions. Interestingly, the characteristic cutoffs described by the exponential functions are in the middle of the distribution range. Further, the cutoff values can be related to the physical characteristics of the studied problem. Particularly, the cutoff of amplitudes of ME avalanches matches the value predicted by high rate magnetic pulse tests performed under much larger driving force values. This observation implies that avalanches during slow rate twin boundary motion and velocity changes observed by high rate tests represent the same behavior and can be described by the same theory.

Strong-Motions From Damaging Moderate Magnitude (5.9 ≥ Mw) Earthquakes in Japan Recorded by K-NET and KiK-net

Strong-motions from 79 moderate magnitude (5.9 ≥ Mw) earthquakes that caused various degrees of impact on humans and built-environment in Japan between 1996 and 2019, after the start of K-NET and KiK-net, are presented. As such, most of the earthquakes occurred beneath the land, and agencies had reported damages from events as small as Mw 4.1. Together, large peak ground accelerations exceeding 500 cm/s2were recorded during 15 earthquakes, reaching approximately 1128 cm/s2during one event. Similarly, large peak ground velocities exceeding 30 cm/s were recorded during ten earthquakes, reaching about 76 cm/s to the maximum. Most of the large values aforementioned were recorded within a hypocentral distance of approximately 30 km and on soil site conditions. Intermediate to long-period ground motions are of growing concerns in urban areas located on sedimentary basins with mid-rise and high-rise buildings. The threshold magnitude for the large ground motions at the periods of about 2–5 s is not well understood. In March 2013, the Japan Meteorological Agency introduced four levels of long-period ground motion intensity (LPGMI) based on absolute velocity response spectra (AVRS) between 1.6 and 7.8 s. In the present data set, LPGMI of level 3 (AVRS 50–100 cm/s) and level 4 (AVRS &amp;gt;100 cm/s) were observed each at a single site from shallow-focus earthquakes of Mw 5.8 and 5.9 at distances of approximately 12 and 15 km, respectively. However, the peak response periods were relatively short (1.6–1.8 s). The data showed that LPGM from moderate earthquakes is of lower concern regarding earthquake early warning at distances beyond 200 km. The 2018 Mw 5.5 North Osaka earthquake, despite the moderate magnitude, caused the loss of six human lives and brought significant damage to buildings and lifelines. Comparing the data with the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and other events suggested that the North Osaka earthquake was probably a higher stress drop event. These moderate earthquakes’ observations hinted that the commonly used GMPEs in Japan may not sufficiently grasp these earthquakes' hazards.

Revisiting California’s Past Great Earthquakes and Long-Term Earthquake Rate

ABSTRACTIn this study, we revisit the three largest historical earthquakes in California—the 1857 Fort Tejon, 1872 Owens Valley, and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes—to review their published moment magnitudes, and compare their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground-motion models (GMMs) and ground-motion intensity conversion equations. Currently accepted moment magnitude estimates for the three earthquakes are 7.9, 7.6, and 7.8, respectively. We first consider the extent to which the intensity distributions of all three earthquakes are consistent with a moment magnitude toward the upper end of the estimated range. We then apply a GMM-based method to estimate the magnitudes of large historical earthquakes. The intensity distribution of the 1857 earthquake is too sparse to provide a strong constraint on magnitude. For the 1872 earthquake, consideration of all available constraints suggests that it was a high stress-drop event, with a magnitude on the higher end of the range implied by scaling relationships, that is, higher than moment magnitude 7.6. For the 1906 earthquake, based on our analysis of regional intensities and the detailed intensity distribution in San Francisco, along with other available constraints, we estimate a preferred moment magnitude of 7.9, consistent with the published estimate based on geodetic and instrumental seismic data. These results suggest that, although there can be a tendency for historical earthquake magnitudes to be overestimated, the accepted catalog magnitudes of California’s largest historical earthquakes could be too low. Given the uncertainties of the magnitude estimates, the seismic moment release rate between 1850 and 2019 could have been either higher or lower than the average over millennial time scales. It is further not possible to reject the hypothesis that California seismicity is described by an untruncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution with a b-value of 1.0 for moment magnitudes up to 8.0.

Lessons from a Small Local Earthquake (Mw 3.2) That Produced the Highest Acceleration Ever Recorded in Mexico City

AbstractA reliable estimation of seismic hazard-facing Mexico City from local earthquakes has suffered from poor seismic instrumentation, complex crustal structure, large and variable site amplification, and lack of knowledge of recurrence period of earthquakes on the mapped faults. Owing to recent improvement in local seismic networks, an earthquake swarm activity, which occurred in June–August 2019, was well recorded. The largest event of the sequence, an Mw 3.2 earthquake, caused panic in the city and produced peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeding 0.3g at the closest station (MHVM) about 1 km away. An analysis of the event shows that it had normal-faulting focal mechanism, consistent with northeast–southwest-oriented mapped faults in the region. It was located at a depth of ∼1 km and had a low stress drop (∼0.1 MPa). We find that the high PGA for this low stress-drop event resulted from high-frequency amplification at MHVM (about factor of ∼6 around 13 Hz), likely due to topographic site effects, superimposed on a pervasive broadband amplification of seismic waves at hill-zone sites in the Valley of Mexico (up to ∼10 in the frequency band of 0.2–10 Hz). Simulation of ground motion for a scenario Mw 5.0 earthquake, using an empirical Green’s function technique, reveals that such an event may give rise to significant seismic intensities in the lake-bed zone of Mexico City. The results emphasize the need to re-evaluate the seismic hazard to Mexico City from local crustal earthquakes in the Valley of Mexico.

Improved approach for stress drop estimation and its application to an induced earthquake sequence in Oklahoma

SUMMARYWe calculate source parameters for fluid-injection induced earthquakes near Guthrie, Oklahoma, guided by synthetic tests to quantify uncertainties. The average stress drop during an earthquake is a parameter fundamental to ground motion prediction and earthquake source physics, but it has proved hard to measure accurately. This has limited our understanding of earthquake rupture, as well as the spatio-temporal variations of fault strength. We use synthetic tests based on a joint spectral-fitting method to define the resolution limit of the corner frequency as a function of the maximum frequency of usable signal, for both individual spectra and the average from multiple stations. Synthetic tests based on stacking analysis find that an improved stacking approach can recover the true input stress drop if the corner frequencies are within the resolution limit defined by joint spectral-fitting. We apply the improved approach to the Guthrie sequence, using different wave types and signal-to-noise criteria to understand the stability of the calculated stress drop values. The results suggest no systematic scaling relationship of stress drop for M ≤ 3.1 earthquakes, but larger events (M ≥ 3.5) tend to have higher average stress drops. Some robust spatio-temporal variations can be linked to the triggering processes and indicate possible stress heterogeneity within the fault zone. Tight clustering of low stress drop events at the beginning stage of the sequence suggests that pore pressure influences earthquake source processes. Events at shallow depth have lower stress drop compared to deeper events. The largest earthquake occurred within a cluster of high stress drop events, likely rupturing a strong asperity.

A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

We use 21 strong motion recordings from Nepal and India for the 25 April 2015 moment magnitude (MW) 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake together with the extensive macroseismic intensity data set presented by Martin et al. (Seism Res Lett 87:957–962, 2015) to analyse the distribution of ground motions at near-field and regional distances. We show that the data are consistent with the instrumental peak ground acceleration (PGA) versus macroseismic intensity relationship developed by Worden et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:204–221, 2012), and use this relationship to estimate peak ground acceleration from intensities (PGAEMS). For nearest-fault distances (RRUP 200 km), instrumental PGA values are consistent with this GMPE, while PGAEMS is systematically higher. We suggest the latter reflects a duration effect whereby effects of weak shaking are enhanced by long-duration and/or long-period ground motions from a large event at regional distances. We use PGAEMS values within 200 km to investigate the variability of high-frequency ground motions using the Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) GMPE as a baseline. Across the near-field region, PGAEMS is higher by a factor of 2.0–2.5 towards the northern, down-dip edge of the rupture compared to the near-field region nearer to the southern, up-dip edge of the rupture. Inferred deamplification in the deepest part of the Kathmandu valley supports the conclusion that former lake-bed sediments experienced a pervasive nonlinear response during the mainshock (Dixit et al. in Seismol Res Lett 86(6):1533–1539, 2015; Rajaure et al. in Tectonophysics, 2016. Ground motions were significantly amplified in the southern Gangetic basin, but were relatively low in the northern basin. The overall distribution of ground motions and damage during the Gorkha earthquake thus reflects a combination of complex source, path, and site effects. We also present a macroseismic intensity data set and analysis of ground motions for the MW7.3 Dolakha aftershock on 12 May 2015, which we compare to the Gorkha mainshock and conclude was likely a high stress-drop event.

Effect of size and base-element on the jerky flow dynamics in metallic glass

The jerky flow behavior of metallic glasses (MGs) is systematically investigated in this work for various alloy compositions, ranging from the commonly conceived “ductile” MGs, such as those based on Zr and Cu, to the “brittle” ones, such as those based on Mg and Fe, on the microscopic scale. Through extensive microcompression studies, a clear sample size and base-element dependence of the jerky flow in MGs is revealed, which shows that the stress-drop amplitude, as normalized by the corresponding MG yield strength, reduces with decreasing sample size or increasing elastic modulus. Meanwhile, the temporal discontinuity of the jerky flow, as characterized by the duration of the stress-drop event and the delay between two consecutive events, also displays similar size and base-element dependence. Finally, a unified theory based on stick–slip dynamics is proposed to explain the coupled size and base-element effects.

Cataclastic production of volcanic ash at Mount Saint Helens

The 2004–2008 eruption of Mt. St. Helens (MSH) produced a series of lava domes and spines distinguished by the occurrence of an enveloping carapace of finely comminuted, weakly indurated fault gouge. The fault gouge results from fracture and shear strain, causing comminution of dacite along the conduit walls during ascent. The faulting associated with the formation of gouge is assumed to be the origin of a repetitive microseismicity (i.e., “drumbeat” seismicity) sourced at ∼0.5–1km depth. The early phases of dome extrusion were attended by several small explosive events producing plumes of volcanic ash derived largely from the fault gouge.Here we present experimental results that establish the requisite conditions for this cataclastic production of volcanic ash at MSH. The experiments are low temperature rock deformation experiments performed on MSH dacite under confining pressures consistent with conduit pressures (0.1, 25, 50, 75MPa). The first set of experiments ended once a through-going shear fracture was formed; these produced a highly localized fault surface and associated fault gouge. A second set of experiments allowed frictional sliding along the fault surface after failure thereby exploring the role of shear strain on grain size reduction of the gouge.Rock strength increases with confining pressure (from 139 to 722MPa at 0.1 to 75MPa). Unconfined loading of the MSH dacite produced several longitudinal fractures with little gouge and a small stress drop (∼120MPa), whereas 75MPa experiments produced a near-linear shear fracture, with a stress drop of ∼300MPa. The amount of gouge and the grain size distribution of the gouge are only weakly affected by the confining pressure. Continued sliding (i.e., shear strain) causes a substantial increase in the amount of gouge but does not increase the number abundance of the finest (<10μm) particles. Thus, the finest particles are an expression only of the magnitude of the stress drop event (fracture) and not the shear strain during frictional sliding. The frictional sliding experiments elucidate the coefficient of friction – all confined experiments show stable slip and strain hardening with a slight increase in coefficient of friction from 0.48 to 0.55, with increased confining pressure. The unconfined sample shows a very low apparent coefficient of friction of ∼0.17.These results allow us to postulate the following ideas concerning the production of volcanic ash by syn-eruptive cataclasis. The significant stress drop, that produces abundant fine ash-sized particles, demands a material that can store substantial elastic energy prior to failure. Highly crystallized, low porosity magma, such as that found at MSH, and favoured by lower ascent rates, is ideal. More rapid ascent and extrusion of lava domes will result in less crystallized and more porous lava; such materials are much less likely to support the cataclastic production of ash sized gouge.

The ShakeOut Earthquake Source and Ground Motion Simulations

The ShakeOut Scenario is premised upon the detailed description of a hypothetical Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault and the associated simulated ground motions. The main features of the scenario, such as its endpoints, magnitude, and gross slip distribution, were defined through expert opinion and incorporated information from many previous studies. Slip at smaller length scales, rupture speed, and rise time were constrained using empirical relationships and experience gained from previous strong-motion modeling. Using this rupture description and a 3-D model of the crust, broadband ground motions were computed over a large region of Southern California. The largest simulated peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) generally range from 0.5 to 1.0 g and 100 to 250 cm/s, respectively, with the waveforms exhibiting strong directivity and basin effects. Use of a slip-predictable model results in a high static stress drop event and produces ground motions somewhat higher than median level predictions from NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs).