Streamflow Regime Research Articles

Shifting cold regions streamflow regimes in North America affect flood frequency analysis

ABSTRACT Over threshold flood events in seventy years of data from 202 reference hydrometric stations in Canada and the United States were separated into nival, mixed, and pluvial flood types. While Mann-Kendall trend tests showed few significant trends in flood magnitude, significant changes in flood type fraction were found over time, with annual mean temperature, and with annual precipitation. Nival events decreased in frequency over the seventy-year period in 16% of sites, while mixed and pluvial events increased (5%, 12%). These changes indicate a shift from nival events towards more pluvial dominated systems. Fewer significant changes in flood type fraction were found with analysis against four climate indices. Flood frequency analysis using a combined distribution approach with the three flood types resulted in larger magnitude design flow estimates (median increase of 20 – 30 %) in comparison with the results from considering the data to be a single population.

What Is Relatively Permanent? Flow Regimes of Arizona Streams within the Context of the 2023 Conforming Rule on the Revised Definition of “Waters of the United States”

The classification of stream flow regimes has been a subject of study for over a half century in the fields of hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, and water resources management. But with the most recent Supreme Court decision on jurisdictional Waters of the United States (WOTUS) and the 2023 Conforming Rule, the answer to the question of which waters are relatively permanent has increased in importance and urgency. One state where this question is salient is Arizona, where approximately 95% of its streams are nonperennial. In this study, we use long-term (>30 years) daily discharge records from Arizona to assess semi-natural flow regimes of arid streams within the context of the 2023 Conforming Rule. Using flow percentile distributions, we distinguished flow permanency—ephemeral vs. intermittent vs. perennial—for 70 stream reaches distributed throughout the state. Ephemeral streams had a median flow of 0 cms and a 75th percentile flow permanence less than 25% (i.e., less than 3 months of flow for every 7.5 out of 10 years). On the other end of the spectrum, perennial streams had a 90th percentile flow permanence of 100%. In the middle, intermittent streams had a 75th percentile flow permanence greater than 25% and a 90th percentile flow permanence less than 100%. We also assessed the effect of the recent megadrought (since 1994) on flow permanency. As a result of the megadrought, four perennial streams transitioned to intermittent, four intermittent streams transitioned to ephemeral, and one perennial stream became ephemeral. The flow classification we present here is specific to Arizona streams but could be useful to other arid regions seeking to answer the question of which streams are relatively permanent in a typical year.

Distributed modelling of snow and ice melt in the Naltar Catchment, Upper Indus basin

Energy balance distributed modelling in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is important to examine glaciological and hydrological processes and assess changes in streamflow in the current and future climate. In this study, the Physically based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model (PDSLIM) using detailed observed meteorological data at hourly scale is employed to simulate the hydrological response of the Naltar catchment, 242.62 km2 in size, (in the Karakoram region in Pakistan to simulate its glaciers’ mass balance as well as daily runoff. The results exhibited overall satisfactory performance in terms of coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE=0.95) modelled against satellite-based snow cover areas, for internal model verification, in eight years. The results of runoff simulations compared for external model verification, with observed daily discharge resulted in NSE 0.90 and 0.89 for calibration and validation period respectively. Flow composition analysis revealed that the streamflow regime of Naltar catchment is composed to 40 % by glacier runoff, 42 % by sub-surface runoff and 18 % by surface runoff. The eight year mean value of net mass balance exhibited a slightly negative mass balance (−0.810 ± 0.31 m w.e. a-1) less pronounced than that observed globally in several continental glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the current climate. It seems that the ‘Karakoram anomaly’, i.e. the balanced to slightly positive glacier budgets observed in the region in the recent decades, a unique dynamics worldwide, has a moderate impact in the central Karakoram. Overall, the distributed energy-balance model PDSLIM, so far tested in the Alps, results to be a suitable tool to estimate energy and mass balance in the glacierized catchments of Karakoram and Himalaya and to better understand snow and ice melt runoff dynamics and floods in highly complex and glacierized mountain basins in the current and, in our research perspective, in the future climate.

Dynamic disparities in inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes into estuarine systems under different flow regimes and streamflow droughts

Elongated periods of low flow conditions, which can be termed as streamflow droughts, influence the nutrient (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) balance in estuarine systems. Analyzing temporal trends of nutrient fluxes into such systems under different streamflow regimes can complement the understanding about the dynamic evolution of streamflow droughts and their impacts on nutrient levels. The objective of this paper was to evaluate how dynamic evolution of streamflow droughts (from low flow conditions) affects the inorganic nutrient flux in a tropical estuarine system. We analyzed a 20-year time series of streamflow data together with the concentrations of two nutrient parameters—dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)—in the Lower Apalachicola River that drains into Apalachicola Bay in northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida. Our findings revealed that droughts affect the seasonal patterns and fluxes of both DIP and DIN. We also observed post-drought flushing patterns in DIP and contrasting changes in DIP and DIN fluxes in the long-term (20 years here) under different streamflow conditions. Dynamically changing correlations between the streamflow and the fluxes were found throughout different phases of droughts. In the long-term (from 2003 to 2021), the DIP flux in high flows increased by 35.3%, while the flux decreased by 15.7% in low flows. Conversely, DIN flux in high flows showed a decrease of <1.2%, but an increase of <23.7% in low flows after droughts end. The insights from this study highlighted the need for effective regulation plans such as proper nutrient management against streamflow droughts to mitigate negative ecological consequences in estuarine systems such as harmful algal blooms.

Forest cover lessens hurricane impacts on peak streamflow

AbstractCyclonic storms (i.e., hurricanes) are powerful disturbance events that often cause widespread forest damage. Storm‐related canopy damage reduces rainfall interception and evapotranspiration, but impacts on streamflow regimes are poorly understood. We quantify streamflow changes in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria in September 2017, and evaluate whether forest cover and storm‐related canopy damage account for the differences. Streams are particularly vulnerable to flooding in early post‐disturbance stages during hurricane season, so we focus on 3 months (Oct–Dec) following the hurricane. To discern changes in rainfall responses, we partitioned streamflow into baseflow and quickflow using a digital filter. We collected 2010–2017 streamflow and rainfall data from 18 watersheds and compared the relative magnitude of post‐ to pre‐hurricane double mass curve slopes of baseflow and quickflow volumes against rainfall. Several watersheds displayed higher post‐hurricane quickflow and baseflow, however, the response was variable. The magnitude of quickflow increase was greater in watersheds with high forest damage. Under the same level of relative damage, watersheds with low initial forest cover had greater quickflow increases than highly forested ones. Conversely, baseflow generally increased, but increases were greater in highly forested watersheds and smaller in highly damaged watersheds. These results suggest that post‐storm baseflow increases were due to recharge of hurricane‐related rainfall, as well as forest transpiration interruption and soil disturbance enhancing recharge of post‐hurricane rainfall, while increases to quickflow are related to loss of canopy rainfall interception and higher soil saturation decreasing infiltration. Our research demonstrates that forest damage from disturbance lowers quickflow and elevates baseflow in highly forested watersheds, and elevates quickflow and lowers baseflow in less‐forested watersheds. Less‐forested watersheds may be closer to the forest cover loss threshold needed to elicit a streamflow response following disturbance, suggesting higher flooding potential downstream, and a lower storm‐related forest disturbance threshold than in heavily forested watersheds.

Mimicking functional elements of the natural flow regime promotes native fish recovery in a regulated river.

Streamflow regimes that maintain vital functions and processes of aquatic ecosystems are critical to sustaining ecosystem health. In rivers with altered flow regimes, restoring components of the natural flow regime is predicted to conserve freshwater biodiversity by supporting ecological functions and geomorphological processes to which native communities are adapted. However, the effectiveness of environmental flow restoration is poorly understood because of inadequate monitoring and uncertainty in ecological responses to managed changes in specific, quantifiable aspects of the annual streamflow regime. Here, we used time series models to analyze 25 years of fish assemblage data collected before and after environmental flow implementation in a dammed river in California, USA. We examined the response of the fish community to changes in individual components of the flow regime known to support ecosystem functions. We found that as functional flow components shifted toward their predicted natural range, the quasi-extinction risk (likelihood of population declines of >80%) decreased for the native fish assemblage. Following environmental flow implementation, observed changes toward natural ranges of dry season duration, fall pulse flow magnitude, and wet season timing each reduced quasi-extinction risk by at least 40% for the native assemblage. However, functional flow components that shifted away from their predicted natural range, including lower spring recession flows and higher dry season baseflow, resulted in greater quasi-extinction risk for native species. In contrast, non-native species decreased in abundance when flow components shifted toward predicted natural ranges and increased when components shifted away from their natural range. Although most functional flow components remained outside of their natural range following environmental flow implementation, our results indicate that even moderate shifts toward a natural flow regime can benefit native and suppress non-native fish species. Overall, this study provides the most compelling evidence to date of the effectiveness of functional environmental flows in supporting native fish recovery in a highly regulated river.

Understanding the association between global forest fire products and hydrometeorological variables

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have influenced the frequency and magnitude of forest fires both globally and regionally. While skilful short- to extended-range prediction of forest fires is essential for effective mitigation in local communities, it is also important to identify the implications of forest fires on different sectors, including water resources and sustainable development. Limited studies have investigated the association between forest fires and hydrometeorological variables at the regional scale in developing countries due to the lack of necessary datasets, which can now be leveraged using the newly hosted global reanalysis of fire danger indices (referred to as fire indices). The current study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variations of eight fire indices across India, as well as their association with hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and the streamflow of a major river basin (Mahanadi) in India. The accuracy of these indices in capturing real fire events and the potential benefit of incorporating fire indices into long-term hydrologic simulations are also explored. The results show that fire indices can accurately yield fire seasons (i.e., post-monsoon and summer) in India. Furthermore, forest fires are found to be strongly associated with hydro-meteorological variables, typically resulting in low streamflow regimes. Fire indices can also capture actual fire events, maintaining high scalar accuracy. Finally, an improvement in uncalibrated hydrologic model simulations is observed when simulated streamflow is post-processed using the fire indices as predictors. Overall, the current study has valuable implications for fire indices forecasting and hydrologic simulations in ungauged basins.

Fish beta diversity associated with hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients in contrasting stream flow regimes

Understanding the role of hydrologic variation in structuring aquatic communities is crucial for successful conservation and sustainable management of native freshwater biodiversity. Partitioning beta diversity into the additive components of spatial turnover and nestedness can provide insight into the forces driving variability in fish assemblages across stream flow regimes. We examined stream fish beta diversity across hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients using long-term (1916–2016) site occurrence records (n = 17,375) encompassing 252 species. We assessed total beta diversity (Sørensen dissimilarity), spatial turnover, and nestedness of fish assemblages in contrasting stream flow regimes across a gradient of decreasing flow stability: groundwater stable (n = 77), groundwater (n = 67), groundwater flashy (n = 175), perennial runoff (n = 141), runoff flashy (n = 255), and intermittent (n = 63) streams. Differences in total beta diversity among the stream flow regimes were driven predominantly (>86 %) by spatial turnover (i.e. species replacement) as opposed to nestedness (i.e. species loss or gain). Total fish beta diversity and spatial turnover were highest in streams with intermediate flow stability (groundwater flashy), while more flow-stable streams (groundwater stable and groundwater) had lower turnover and higher nestedness. Species turnover was also strongly associated with seasonal variation in hydrology across all flow regimes, but these relationships were most evident for assemblages in intermittent streams. Distance-based statistical comparisons showed significant correlations between beta diversity and anthropogenic disturbance variables, including dam density, dam storage volume and water withdrawals in catchments of groundwater stable streams, while hydrologic variables were more strongly correlated with beta diversity in streams with runoff-dominated and flashy flow regimes. The high spatial turnover of species implies that fish conservation actions would benefit from watershed-focused approaches targeting multiple streams with wide spatial distribution, as opposed to simply focusing on preserving sites with the greatest number of species.

Streamflow seasonality in a snow-dwindling world.

Climate warming induces shifts from snow to rain in cold regions1, altering snowpack dynamics with consequent impacts on streamflow that raise challenges to many aspects of ecosystem services2-4. A straightforward conceptual model states that as the fraction of precipitation falling as snow (snowfall fraction) declines, less solid water is stored over the winter and both snowmelt and streamflow shift earlier in season. Yet the responses of streamflow patterns to shifts in snowfall fraction remain uncertain5-9. Here we show that as snowfall fraction declines, the timing of the centre of streamflow mass may be advanced or delayed. Our results, based on analysis of 1950-2020 streamflow measurements across 3,049 snow-affected catchments over the Northern Hemisphere, show that mean snowfall fraction modulates the seasonal response to reductions in snowfall fraction. Specifically, temporal changes in streamflow timing with declining snowfall fraction reveal a gradient from earlier streamflow in snow-rich catchments to delayed streamflow in less snowy catchments. Furthermore, interannual variability of streamflow timing and seasonal variation increase as snowfall fraction decreases across both space and time. Our findings revise the 'less snow equals earlier streamflow' heuristic and instead point towards a complex evolution of seasonal streamflow regimes in a snow-dwindling world.

Characterizing streamflow regimes using a distributed model for sustainable resource management in the humid tropics

Estimating streamflow regimes on small tropical islands is challenging due to limited observational data, poor accuracy of remote sensing, and the limitations of coarse-scale climate models, restricting our understanding of hydrological processes and the management of water resources. The inadequacy of data has also affected the development of instream flow standards (i.e., environmental flows, e-flows) needed to protect ecological and cultural values central to island communities. Estimates of water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and drinking water supply are also critical for informed investments in water resource planning. We utilized high-resolution (250 m) gridded daily rainfall data to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to characterize streamflow regimes at ungauged locations in a watershed on Kaua‘i Island. The resultant flow statistics were then used to describe the daily, seasonal, and annual availability of surface water to evaluate the implications of potential e-flow scenarios on water available for run-of-river hydropower. Compared to rainfall data derived from a single station within the watershed, the gridded daily rainfall product increased the accuracy of model output from not satisfactory to good. Model techniques using high resolution rainfall data may substitute for long-term hydrological data collection across complex tropical environments and provide data for making sustainable management decisions at ungauged locations.

Impacts of flow regime characterization on selected water quality parameters in Mthatha River catchment

Abstract The effects of altered streamflow types on selected water quality parameters provide useful knowledge and information for prompt water pollution management. This study assesses the impacts of inter- and intra-year seasonal variability in streamflow types on selected water quality parameters. The study uses percentiles, multivariance correlation, and agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis (AHC) in XLSTAT statistics software to achieve the study aim. Historical dataset for streamflow, rainfall, and selected water quality parameters between 2012 and 2020 for the Mthatha River catchment (MRC), Eastern Cape, South Africa were used to characterize the different seasonal variability impacts with the selected water quality parameters at both the upper and lower reach of the river. The result of the inter and intra-year seasonal variability analyses show that the catchment's flow magnitude varies between 2.0 and 2.7 m3/s in summer while the results of the nonlinear polynomial relationship between the grouped streamflow regime show a coefficient of correlation (R2) values of 0.4264 and 0.5643, suggesting that a mild alteration occurs in the catchment. Decision-makers would find the study useful in controlling the pollutant effluent discharge into the river at different times and maintaining standard effluent requirements as mitigation strategies for sustaining the river ecosystem.

The Impact of Urban Land Use Changes on the Morphology of the New Calabar River Catchment, Port Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

The New Calabar River catchment has experienced significant alterations in land use and land cover patterns due to the fast population growth in Port Harcourt. This research investigated the influence of urban land use change on the morphological structure of the New Calabar River basin, which is experiencing rapid urbanization in Rivers State. The research utilized a combination of primary and secondary data sources, specifically satellite imagery and field measurements of the hydro-geomorphic channel's breadth and depth. The findings indicated a significant rise in urbanization, resulting in the encroachment upon various land uses, including water bodies, farmlands, dense forests, and wetlands. Moreover, correlation and regression analysis revealed a significant positive link between channel morphology, discharge, and urbanization index. Therefore, it can be argued that the urbanization index and discharge are crucial in determining the river channel's current channel form and size features. The study also demonstrated a positive correlation between discharge and channel dimensions, including width and depth. The stream channel has experienced an expansion in reaction to the modification of the natural soil caused by urbanization, leading to changes in the stream flow regime. Additionally, it has been observed that the segment of the New Calabar River that encompasses urbanized regions tends to have a comparatively more significant cross-sectional channel. Incorporating urbanization analysis and its impact on morphology has facilitated the implementation of diverse geospatial analyses and sustainable watershed management in the basin.

Perennial and Non‐Perennial Streamflow Regime Shifts Across California, USA

AbstractDespite rises in drought frequency and human water demands, streamflow regime shifts from perennial to non‐perennial have not been evaluated in many arid/semi‐arid regions. To document shifts, we created a methodology that classifies streams as naturally perennial or non‐perennial. Our classification used historical, minimally disturbed‐quality USGS streamflow gages (1950–2015) across California. The number of consecutive zero flow days (≥5 days) was used to classify 61% (96/158) and 39% (62/158) of gages as perennial and non‐perennial, respectively. We developed a random forest model to predict flow regime class based on climate and watershed characteristics. To identify regime shifts, we compared the observed class of contemporary (1980–2023) minimally disturbed and disturbed gages with their modeled, natural class. For most minimally disturbed gages, the observed and natural predicted classes were the same, but 13% (7/52) of gages had a modeled perennial regime with an observed non‐perennial class, indicating a drying trend. Among disturbed gages, 22% (64/290) shifted from perennial to non‐perennial and 7% (21/290) from non‐perennial to perennial. Trends in the minimum 7‐day moving average and number of zero‐flow days provided further evidence of drying at minimally disturbed streams, but no pattern at disturbed gages. Our results indicate that few minimally disturbed perennial streams have become non‐perennial to date, but many streams have experienced drying from climate. Streams impacted by human activities had greater drying rates, but regulation has caused some non‐perennial streams to become perennial. By quantifying expected natural streamflow regimes, this work can help monitor, manage, and conserve stream ecosystems.

Analysing the Effects of Atmospheric Teleconnections on Streamflow Regime in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye

Analysing the variations in hydrological cycle components is essential for water resources planning and management. In this study, the relationship between the streamflow data belonging to five discharge gauging stations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Türkiye and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) was investigated. For this purpose, Spearman’s correlation test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and relative importance analysis were used. Accordingly, Spearman’s correlation coefficients were calculated between raw streamflow data, decomposed streamflow data via EEMD and atmospheric teleconnections. Then, the relative importance analysis was applied to determine the atmospheric teleconnections’ influences on streamflow data. The findings showed that the relationship between raw streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections is generally more significant and negative in the winter and spring. Furthermore, it was observed that the linkage between the decomposed streamflow data and atmospheric teleconnections could differentiate. Although no significant correlation between atmospheric teleconnections and raw streamflow data was detected in some months, significant correlations were detected between atmospheric teleconnections and decomposed streamflow data. This reveals the importance of examining the relationship between atmospheric teleconnections and streamflow data for different periods. The relative importance analysis revealed that the influence of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data could change from station to station and from component to component. This study showed that investigating the effects of atmospheric teleconnections on streamflow data for different components and periods is important.

Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts

Climate change is affecting the phenology of organisms and ecosystem processes across a wide range of environments. However, the links between organismal and ecosystem process change in complex communities remain uncertain. In snow-dominated watersheds, snowmelt in the spring and early summer, followed by a long low-flow period, characterizes the natural flow regime of streams and rivers. Here, we examined how earlier snowmelt will alter the phenology of mountain stream organisms and ecosystem processes via an outdoor mesocosm experiment in stream channels in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California. The low-flow treatment, simulating a 3- to 6-wk earlier return to summer baseflow conditions projected under climate change scenarios in the region, increased water temperature and reduced biofilm production to respiration ratios by 32%. Additionally, most of the invertebrate species explaining community change (56% and 67% of the benthic and emergent taxa, respectively), changed in phenology as a consequence of the low-flow treatment. Further, emergent flux pulses of the dominant insect group (Chironomidae) almost doubled in magnitude, benefitting a generalist riparian predator. Changes in both invertebrate community structure (composition) and functioning (production) were mostly fine-scale, and response diversity at the community level stabilized seasonally aggregated responses. Our study illustrates how climate change in vulnerable mountain streams at the rain-to-snow transition is poised to alter the dynamics of stream food webs via fine-scale changes in phenology-leading to novel predator-prey "matches" or "mismatches" even when community structure and ecosystem processes appear stable at the annual scale.

Local environments, not invasive hybridization, influence cardiac performance of native trout under acute thermal stress.

Climate-induced expansion of invasive hybridization (breeding between invasive and native species) poses a significant threat to the persistence of many native species worldwide. In the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains, hybridization between native cutthroat trout and non-native rainbow trout has increased in recent decades due, in part, to climate-driven increases in water temperature. It has been postulated that invasive hybridization may enhance physiological tolerance to climate-induced thermal stress because laboratory studies indicate that rainbow trout have a higher thermal tolerance than cutthroat trout. Here, we assessed whether invasive hybridization improves cardiac performance response to acute water temperature stress of native wild trout populations. We collected trout from four streams with a wide range of non-native admixture among individuals and with different temperature and streamflow regimes in the upper Flathead River drainage, USA. We measured individual cardiac performance (maximum heart rate, "MaxHR", and temperature at arrhythmia, "ArrTemp") during laboratory trials with increasing water temperatures (10-28°C). Across the study populations, we observed substantial variation in cardiac performance of individual trout when exposed to thermal stress. Notably, we found significant differences in the cardiac response to thermal regimes among native cutthroat trout populations, suggesting the importance of genotype-by-environment interactions in shaping the physiological performance of native cutthroat trout. However, rainbow trout admixture had no significant effect on cardiac performance (MaxHR and ArrTemp) within any of the three populations. Our results indicate that invasive hybridization with a warmer-adapted species does not enhance the cardiac performance of native trout under warming conditions. Maintaining numerous populations across thermally and hydrologically diverse stream environments will be crucial for native trout to adapt and persist in a warming climate.

Assessment of alterations of river flow regimes using hydro-geomorphological parameters

Climate change and anthropogenic activities can alter the streamflow regime by modifying critical elements of the flow regime. The aim of this work is to determine, by means of characteristic indices of rates of change and variability, the stage of alteration of the streamflow regime in a mountain catchment. On the basis of the daily mean streamflow, recorded over the period 1994-2020, a series of hydrological indices (Richards-Baker flashiness index, coefficient of variation, k index) were quantified, by means of which the rates of change and variability of the flow can be assessed. The results obtained show that the temporal and spatial variation of the streamflow is mainly due to natural causes, such as climatic variability and some geomorphological characteristics of the drainage basins. Thus, a clear positive correlation was observed between the Richards-Baker flashiness index and the magnitude of flood events. In the longitudinal profile, an increase in the mean values of Richards-Baker flashiness index was observed, indicating a higher variability of streamflows downstream. The higher Richards-Baker flashiness index values in the lower reaches were reflected in changes in the river channel, particularly after 2004.

Effects of altered streamflow on macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness and composition in the Goulburn River, Australia

River systems have been stressed by the construction of dams and regulation structures which influence aquatic ecosystem integrity. Previous studies considered the general significance of regional streamflow regimes for aquatic communities, but they did not investigate the influence of specific components of flow regimes on aquatic ecosystems under the combined impact of regulation and extreme drought events, limiting our ability to design and implement precise environmental flow management strategies. This study aims to quantify the relationship between macroinvertebrate biotic indices and ecologically important streamflow characteristics derived from five natural flow regime components by investigating the spatiotemporal variation in the macroinvertebrate assemblage in regulated and unregulated reaches and identifying specific flow indices that have a direct impact on macroinvertebrates in the Goulburn basin in Victoria, Australia during the Millennium Drought period. The relationship between dominant flow metrics and macroinvertebrates indices was investigated using boosted regression trees (BRT). The results revealed a significant difference in hydrological variability between regulated and unregulated reaches. The regulated reaches demonstrated reduced hydrological variability during low flow periods, and rapid increase in discharge during high flow periods when compared to unregulated reach. Unregulated reach had 38% more taxa richness than regulated reach impacted by hydropeaking. Eight indicator taxa were identified in the unregulated reach, and they exhibited a higher Stream Invertebrate Grade Number Average Level (SIGNAL 2) score, indicating that they were highly sensitive species. The maximum flow in June was the most important flow parameter that influences the macroinvertebrate indices as per the BRT model. Better management of environmental flows will benefit from identifying which aspects of the natural flow regime impact stream ecosystems and predicting the consequences of altered flow regimes on aquatic ecosystems.

Direct integration of reservoirs' operations in a hydrological model for streamflow estimation: coupling a CLSTM model with MOHID-Land

Abstract. Knowledge about streamflow regimes and values is essential for different activities and situations in which justified decisions must be made. However, streamflow behavior is commonly assumed to be non-linear, being controlled by various mechanisms that act on different temporal and spatial scales, making its estimation challenging. An example is the construction and operation of infrastructures such as dams and reservoirs in rivers. The challenges faced by modelers to correctly describe the impact of dams on hydrological systems are considerable. In this study, an already implemented solution of the MOHID-Land (where MOHID stands for HYDrodinamic MOdel, or MOdelo HIDrodinâmico in Portuguese) model for a natural flow regime in the Ulla River basin was considered as a baseline. The watershed referred to includes three reservoirs. Outflow values were estimated considering a basic operation rule for two of them (run-of-the-river dams) and considering a data-driven model of a convolutional long short-term memory (CLSTM) type for the other (high-capacity dam). The outflow values obtained with the CLSTM model were imposed in the hydrological model, while the hydrological model fed the CLSTM model with the level and the inflow of the reservoir. This coupled system was evaluated daily using two hydrometric stations located downstream of the reservoirs, resulting in an improved performance compared with the baseline application. The analysis of the modeled values with and without reservoirs further demonstrated that considering dams' operations in the hydrological model resulted in an increase in the streamflow during the dry season and a decrease during the wet season but with no differences in the average streamflow. The coupled system is thus a promising solution for improving streamflow estimates in modified catchments.

Hydrologic changes in the Brazos River Basin and implications for Great Plains fishes

Alteration of natural flow regimes from surface water and groundwater resource development has adversely impacted aquatic habitats of resident fish throughout the Great Plains. Two endangered cyprinids, Sharpnose Shiner Notropis oxyrhynchus and Smalleye Shiner N.buccula, were historically found throughout the Brazos River Basin in Texas. However, their range has been greatly reduced by construction of impoundments and stream depletion from groundwater pumping. Successful recruitment requires flowing, unobstructed river reaches of sufficient velocity to suspend semi-buoyant fertilized fish ova. The wide, shallow stream habitats the shiners utilize are now limited to the Upper Brazos River Basin upstream of Possum Kingdom Reservoir. This study assesses the relative importance of long-term climate variability, reservoir construction, and groundwater development on Upper Brazos streamflow regimes by (1) calculating flow metrics (2) evaluating groundwater-surface water interactions and long-term groundwater inflows, and (3) using mixed-effects regression models and Poisson regression. Results show that fish habitat has been threatened through several impacted hydrologic processes: (1)groundwater development has resulted in reduced mean daily flows, peak flows, and zero-flow days, (2)upstream impoundments have increased zero-flow days and reduced mean daily flows, and (3)lower mean daily flows and peak flows now occur during droughts, suggesting water resource development—particularly after 1970—has exacerbated drought effects. We illustrate this approach using the Upper Brazos River Basin; however, the methodology applied can inform management actions to maintain spawning flows for streams in similar altered basins.