Stratospheric Warming In January Research Articles

Arctic and Pacific Ocean Conditions Were Favorable for Cold Extremes over Eurasia and North America during Winter 2020/21

Abstract A sequence of extreme cold events occurred across Eurasia and North America during winter 2020/21. Here, we explore the causes and associated mechanisms for the extremely cold temperatures using both observations and large-ensemble simulations. Experiments were conducted with observed ocean surface boundary conditions prescribed globally, and regionally to discern the specific influence of Arctic, tropical Pacific, and North Pacific drivers. Increased likelihood of daily cold extremes in mid-December to mid-January are found in Eurasian midlatitudes in response to reduced Arctic sea ice. Tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, more specifically the La Niña pattern, increased probability of extreme cold over high-latitude Eurasia in early January to early February. Both reduced Arctic sea ice and La Niña increased the probability of daily cold extremes over western North America in late January to late February. We conclude that a combination of reduced Arctic sea ice, La Niña, and a sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 were factors in the February 2021 extreme cold wave that caused huge societal disruptions in Texas and the southern Great Plains. Although the magnitude of the simulated cold extremes are relatively small when compared with observed anomalies, the Arctic and Pacific Ocean surface conditions in winter 2020/21 increased the probability of cold days as cold or colder than observed by approximately 17%–43%.

The sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021

Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature and sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden–Julian index, this study explores a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021, its favorable conditions, and the near surface impact. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 alternately contributed to the total eddy heat flux from mid-December 2020 to late January 2021, and the wavenumber 2 during the onset period nearly split the stratospheric polar vortex. In mid-December 2020 and during the 2021 New Year period (1–5 January 2021), a blocking developed over the Urals, which enhanced the local ridge and the climatological wavenumber 2. Composite results confirm that the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and La Niña favor the deepening of the high latitude North Pacific low and the increase of the Urals height ridge, which together enhance the planetary waves and hence disturb the stratospheric polar vortex. However, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics was dormant in mid-to-late December 2020 and early January 2021, and the well-established statistical relationship between the MJO convection over the western Pacific and the SSW is not applicable to this special case. The cold air outbreak in China during the 2021 New Year period before the January 2021 SSW onset is not explained by the SSW signal which developed in the stratosphere. In contrast, the downward-propagating signal reached the near surface in mid-February 2021, which may contribute to the cold air outbreak in US and may help to explain the extreme coldness of Texas in middle February.

Analysis of the Arctic polar vortex dynamics during the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009

The Arctic polar vortex is often affected by wave activity during its life cycle. The planetary Rossby waves propagating from the troposphere to the stratosphere occasionally lead to the displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, accompanied by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In January 2009, one of the largest SSWs was observed in the Arctic. In this work, the dynamics of the polar vortex during the 2009 SSW is considered using a new method that allows one to estimate the vortex area, the wind speed at the vortex edge, the mean temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio inside the vortex, based on the fact that the Arctic vortex edge at the 50 and 10 hPa pressure levels is determined by the geopotential values, respectively, 19.5. 104 and 29.5. 104 m2 /s2 , using the ERA5 reanalysis data. The application of this method is justified for the Arctic polar vortex, which is characterized by significant variability, especially during the period of its splitting. The splitting of the polar vortex in 2009 was observed on January 24 and 28, respectively, in the middle and lower stratosphere. About a week after the splitting, the vortices became closer in characteristics to small cyclones, which completely collapsed within 1–3 weeks. The influence of planetary wave activity on the polar vortex does not always lead to its breakdown. Short-term splitting of the polar vortex is sometimes observed for several days after which the polar vortex strengthens again and PSCs form inside the vortex. Such a recovery of the polar vortex is most likely to occur in the winter. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex for 1979–2020 and using the example of the 2009 SSW, we showed that when the vortex area decreases to less than 10 million km2 and the mean wind speed at the vortex edge decreases below 30 and 45 m/s, respectively, in the lower and middle stratosphere, the polar vortex becomes a small cyclone (with significantly higher temperatures within it), which usually collapses within 3 weeks.

Role of Gravity Waves in a Vortex-Split Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2009

AbstractThe role of gravity waves (GWs) in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in January 2009 (SSW09) is investigated using the MERRA-2 dataset. Nearly 2 weeks prior to the central date (lag = 0), at which the zonal-mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60°N first becomes negative, westward GW drag (GWD) is significantly enhanced in the lower mesosphere and stratosphere. At 5 days before lag = 0, planetary waves (PWs) of zonal wavenumber 2 (ZWN-2) in the stratosphere are enhanced, while PWs of ZWN-1 are weakened, which are evident from the amplitudes of the PWs and their Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (EPD). To examine the relationship between PWs and GWs, a nonconservative GWD (NCGWD) source term of the linearized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity equation is considered. A ZWN-2 pattern of the NCGWD forcing is developed around z = 55–60 km with a secondary peak around z = 40 km just before the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere began to enhance. A significant positive correlation between the NCGWD forcing in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM; 0.3–0.1 hPa in the present data) and the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere (5–1 hPa) exists. This result demonstrates that the amplification of the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere before the onset of SSW09 is likely related to the generation of PWs by GWD in the USLM, which is revealed by the enhanced downward-propagating PWs of ZWN-2 into the stratosphere from above.

Ionospheric F Layer Scintillation Weakening as Observed by COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 During the Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2013

AbstractSudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in Northern Hemisphere winter atmosphere play a significant effect on large ionospheric disturbances. Nevertheless, the SSW effects on small‐scale structure in ionosphere, that is, the ionospheric F layer irregularities, are generally lack of understanding. This work carefully studied the equatorial F layer scintillation during the SSW event extending from 4 January to 5 February in 2013 by using the data of COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 (a Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate mission). The occurrence rate of ionospheric F layer scintillation was found to be apparently decreased by about 30% during the SSW period. This phenomenon was obviously seen in American sector (90°W–0°) and African sector (0°–90°E). Another prominent feature was the ~0.5 local time hour delay of maximum scintillation occurrence rate associated with the suppression of equatorial F layer irregularities in the first 2 hr after the sunset during the SSW event in January 2013.

Ionospheric Effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2009: Results of Simulation with the First Version of the EAGLE Model

In this paper, we discuss perturbations in neutral temperature, total electron content (TEC), and critical frequency of the maximum of the F2 layer (foF2) during the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009. The calculations were performed using the first version of the EAGLE (Entire Atmosphere Global Model), which is a combination of the models of the low–middle atmosphere (HAMMONIA) and the upper atmosphere (GSM TIP). The EAGLE reproduces observed stratospheric warming and related mesospheric cooling in the northern polar cap in January 2009. At thermospheric altitudes, the neutral temperature perturbations have a quasi-wave character with a wavelength of ∼40 km in the vertical direction. Our results indicate that the HAMMONIA model should be used in the EAGLE instead of the GSM TIP model for the neutral temperature calculations in the altitude region from 80 to 120 km. It is shown that the obtained model foF2 and TEC perturbations are mainly related to seasonal variations. The most-pronounced perturbations in the ionospheric electron density due to stratospheric warming are formed near the equator and are basically negative. Our analysis of the neutral temperature and electron density perturbations made it possible to conclude that the dependence of ionospheric parameters on seasonal changes in solar zenith angle is stronger than for the thermosphere parameters.

Two Day Wave Traveling Westward With Wave Number 1 During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2017

AbstractQuasi‐two day wave propagating westward with wave number 1 (W1) in January 2017 is studied using global temperature observed by Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry and wind observed by a meteor radar at Fuke, China (19.0°N, 109.8°E). The amplitude of W1 significantly enhances during January 2017, when two stratospheric warming events occur. The temperature perturbation of W1 reaches maximum amplitude of more than 6 K at latitude ±15° around ~84 km and ~95 km. The structure of temperature W1 is symmetric with regard to the equator. The temporal variation of W1 is consistent with the stationary planetary wave with wave number 2 (SPW2), but contrary to the quasi‐two day wave propagating westward with wave number 3 (W3). When SPW2 is large during two sudden stratospheric warming events, energy transfers from W3 to W1. Two bursts of the 2 day wave in meridional wind observed by the meteor radar are just corresponding to the local maxima of W3 and W1, respectively. We conclude that during January 2017, W1 is generated by the nonlinear interaction between SPW2 and W3. SPW2 which is modulated by the quasi‐16 day perturbation in the stratosphere plays a key role in the energy transmission from W3 to W1, and it is responsible for the 16 day variation of W1.

Daily estimates of the migrating tide and zonal mean temperature in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere derived from SABER data

AbstractSatellites provide a global view of the structure in the fields that they measure. In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, the dominant features in these fields at low zonal wave number are contained in the zonal mean, quasi‐stationary planetary waves, and tide components. Due to the nature of the satellite sampling pattern, stationary, diurnal, and semidiurnal components are aliased and spectral methods are typically unable to separate the aliased waves over short time periods. This paper presents a data processing scheme that is able to recover the daily structure of these waves and the zonal mean state. The method is validated by using simulated data constructed from a mechanistic model, and then applied to Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements. The migrating diurnal tide extracted from SABER temperatures for 2009 has a seasonal variability with peak amplitude (20 K at 95 km) in February and March and minimum amplitude (less than 5 K at 95 km) in early June and early December. Higher frequency variability includes a change in vertical structure and amplitude during the major stratospheric warming in January. The migrating semidiurnal tide extracted from SABER has variability on a monthly time scale during January through March, minimum amplitude in April, and largest steady amplitudes from May through September. Modeling experiments were performed that show that much of the variability on seasonal time scales in the migrating tides is due to changes in the mean flow structure and the superposition of the tidal responses to water vapor heating in the troposphere and ozone heating in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

Transport of nitrogen oxides through the winter mesopause in HAMMONIA

AbstractWe analyze the importance of individual transport processes for the winter polar downward transport of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the thermosphere to the mesosphere. The downward transport of NOx produced by energetic particle precipitation induces chemical alterations in the middle atmosphere and influences ozone chemistry. However, it remains unclear how much each transport process contributes to the downward transport. We use simulations of the atmospheric general circulation and chemistry model HAMMONIA (Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) for the extended winter 2008/2009 with a passive tracer. The model enables us to separate the contributions of advection, eddy and molecular diffusion on the total transport by switching off processes. The results show that molecular diffusion and resolved vertical mixing due to advection effectively transport NOx to the mesosphere. While the impact of molecular diffusion on the transport rapidly decreases below 0.001 hPa, the impact of advection increases. Around the central date of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009, advection is strongly enhanced in the thermosphere and mesosphere and the downward transport through the mesopause region is almost entirely driven by advection. Eddy diffusion has limited impact on the transport in the upper mesosphere and negligible impact on the transport in the thermosphere. If eddy diffusion is enhanced as suggested by observations, it can potentially have a larger impact on transport through the mesopause than was previously assumed.

Study of the Influence of the Stratospheric Warming in January, 2013 on the Vertical Structure of Ozone and Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere over Tomsk Using Microwave and Lidar Diagnostics

The study of response of the middle atmosphere (stratosphere and mesosphere) to any external impact (variations of sunlight, flux of cosmic ray particles, eruptions of volcanoes, and anthropogenesis factors) is an urgent physical problem. Ozone and temperature are important atmospheric parameters. The correlation of these parameters is of significant interest from the viewpoint of thermal balance of the middle atmosphere. The basic heating of the stratosphere (altitude range of 20-50 km) is caused by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone molecules. Thermal changes influence the rate of ozone formation and destruction. Other types of wave processes can redistribute the structures of vertical profiles of ozone and temperature in the middle atmosphere. Sudden stratospheric warming affects a lot of widely known atmospheric wave processes. Microwave radiometry and Rayleigh lidar allow investigation of ozone and temperature variations during largescale wave disturbances in the middle atmosphere, such as, for example, stratospheric warming [1-3].

Long‐term observations of the quasi two‐day wave by Hawaii MF radar

AbstractA mesospheric horizontal wind data set measured during 1991–2006 by the medium frequency (MF) radar at Kauai, Hawaii (22°N, 160°W) is analyzed to examine the long‐term variability of the quasi two‐day wave (QTDW). The QTDW over Hawaii is amplified twice a year, with the January and July events most likely being the representation of zonal wave numbers 3 and 4 modes, respectively. The amplitudes of the January monthly mean QTDW in both meridional and zonal winds and the July monthly mean QTDW in meridional component are nearly in phase with the solar cycle but with the solar maxima leading the QTDW maxima by 1 or 2 years. However, the July monthly mean QTDW in zonal wind is more antiphase with the solar cycle. Enhanced QTDW oscillations are evident in both wind components in January 1998, which is likely related to the strong El Niño event during the winter of 1997/1998. The enhanced gravity wave activity and the increased barotropic/baroclinic/inertial instability related to the strengthened stratosphere summer easterly jet might provide additional forcing to amplify the QTDW. Moreover, the enhanced migrating diurnal tide during warm El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events could also contribute to the abnormally strong QTDW by increasing the refractive index and thus the growth rate of the QTDW. Additional enhancement of the QTDW with a short period of ~43 h is observed during the major sudden stratospheric warming in January 2006.

Remote sensing of atmospheric ozone at millimeter waves

We present new results of remote sensing of the vertical distribution of ozone at millimeter waves using the FIAN (P.N. Lebedev Institute of Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences) high-sensitivity spectroradiometer which includes a new 96-channel spectrum analyzer AS-96 with improved characteristics. The ozone radiation spectrum is recorded at a frequency of 142.2 GHz. Vertical profile of ozone is retrieved using an improved algorithm based on Tikhonov’s method and statistical regularization technique. Specific features of the altitude-temporal distribution of ozone, which reflects ozonospheric processes above mid-latitudes are considered. Variations in the vertical distribution of ozone during major stratospheric warming in January 2009 are shown. It was concluded that the creation of a national ground-based network for ozone monitoring at millimeter waves in Russia is a must.

Relation between the 100-hPa Heat Flux and Stratospheric Potential Vorticity

Abstract It is shown that a quantitative relation exists between the stratospheric polar cap potential vorticity and the 100-hPa eddy heat flux. A difference in potential vorticity between years is found to be linearly related to the flux difference integrated over time, taking into account a decrease in relaxation time scale with height in the atmosphere. This relation (the PV–flux relation) is then applied to the 100-hPa flux difference between 2008/09 and the climatology (1989–2008) to obtain a prediction of the polar cap potential vorticity difference between the 2008/09 winter and the climatology. A prediction of the 2008/09 polar cap potential vorticity is obtained by adding this potential vorticity difference to the climatological potential vorticity. The observed polar cap potential vorticity for 2008/09 shows a large and abrupt change in the potential vorticity in midwinter, related to the occurrence of a major sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009; this is also captured by the potential vorticity predicted from the 100-hPa flux and the PV–flux relation. The results of the mean PV–flux relation show that, on average, about 50% of the interannual variability in the state of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere is determined by the variations in the 100-hPa heat flux. This explained variance can be as large as 80% for more severe events, as demonstrated for the 2009 major warming.

Millimeter radio wave monitoring of the vertical distribution of ozone over Moscow

The results ofmonitoring of the vertical distribution of ozone (VDO) over Moscow using millimeter waves are presented. The features of the altitude-time distribution of ozone, which reflects the ozonosphere evolution over mid-latitudes, are considered. Changes in the VDO, characterizing the ozonosphere response to stratospheric warming in January 2009, are shown. A conclusion is made on the necessity of developing a domestic ground-based network for mm-wave monitoring of the spatial distribution of ozone.

Rapid meridional transport of tropical airmasses to the Arctic during the major stratospheric warming in January 2003

Abstract. We present observations of unusually high values of ozone and N2O in the middle stratosphere that were observed by the airborne submillimeter radiometer ASUR in the Arctic. The observations took place in the meteorological situation of a major stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2003 and was dominated by a wave 2 event. On 23 January 2003 the observed N2O and O3 mixing ratios around 69° N in the middle stratosphere reached maximum values of ~190 ppb and ~10 ppm, respectively. The similarities of these N2O profiles in a potential temperature range between 800 and 1200 K with N2O observations around 20° N on 1 March 2003 by the same instrument suggest that the observed Arctic airmasses were transported from the tropics quasi-isentropically. This is confirmed by 5-day back trajectory calculations which indicate that the airmasses between about 800 and 1000 K had been located around 20° N 3–5 days prior to the measurement in the Arctic. Calculations with a linearized ozone chemistry model along calculated as well as idealized trajectories, initialized with the low-latitude ASUR ozone measurements, give reasonable agreement with the Arctic ozone measurement by ASUR. PV distributions suggest that these airmasses did not stay confined in the Arctic region which makes it unlikely that this dynamical situation lead to the formation of dynamically caused pockets of low ozone.

UARS first global N2O5 data sets: Application to a stratospheric warming event in January 1992

For the first time, global measurements of N2O5 are available for study. N2O5 has long been a missing link in large‐scale observations of stratospheric nitrogen species, the chemical family that comprises the major global loss cycle for ozone above about 25 km [McElroy et al., 1992]. N2O5 is also an important intermediate in conversion of NOx to HNO3, thus limiting the effect of nitrogen‐catalyzed ozone destruction below about 25 km [Fahey et al., 1993]. The new N2O5 observations come from both the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) and Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), providing near‐global coverage at high spatial and temporal resolution for almost 20 months. Here we focus on data obtained near 40 km during a stratospheric warming in January 1992. The N2O5 fields show globally coherent structures with large variation in response to global transport coupled with highly temperature dependent chemistry. Comparison of the data with chemistry and transport models indicates that our understanding of processes controlling N2O5 amounts and the interaction with other reactive nitrogen species is largely accurate under most conditions; however, an exceptional disagreement is found in the prolonged polar dark. This example demonstrates the utility of global data to understand the combined effects of chemistry and transport on N2O5 under a wide range of conditions.

An Analysis of the Energetics of the Major Polar Stratospheric Warming of January–February 1973

Abstract Energy, temperature and zonal wind during the stratospheric warming of January–February 1973 are investigated for five layers: 100–70 mb, 70–50 mb, 50–30 mb, 30–10 mb and 10–0.4 mb. Temperature and zonal wind patterns, derived from NMC and Oxford satellite radiance data, are compared with results of synoptic studies. Upward flux of geopotential is traced from 100 to 0.4 mb with differences in the vertical used to estimate convergence. Mean and eddy potential and kinetic energies are estimated for each layer, with eddy quantities analyzed separately for the first three wavenumbers. Temperature and zonal wind results compare well with synoptic studies, with the warming appearing to propagate downward. A critical line developed and moved both vertically and horizontally. The warming was preceded by enhanced upward flux of n = 1 geopotential. In general, n = 1 fluctuations dominated the warming process, except for the 10–0.4 mb layer.

On the warming of the polar troposphere during the stratospheric warming of January 1977

In January 1977, a warming of the polar troposphere occurred following a major stratospheric warming. The temperature increase in the polar troposphere is found to be larger below 400 mb than in the upper troposphere. Analysis of the heat budget of the polar troposphere shows that the eddy heat flux convergence is the major factor responsible for the tropospheric warming.

Winds and Wave Motions to 110 km at Mid-Latitudes. V. An Analysis of Data from September 1974–April 1975

Abstract The behavior of the daily noon winds at 52°N, 107° W (Saskatoon, Canada) at altitudes from 52 km to about 110 km are studied for the interval September 1974–Apzil 1975. These data are compared with ROCOB temperatures and winds (≲55 km) for Churchill (94°N, 59°W). The thermal wind equation and running cross-correlation analysis are used to demonstrate the seasonal variations of the meridional temperature gradient, and of coupling, within the stratosphere, mesosphere and thermosphere. The effects of the stratospheric warming of January 1975 are also investigated. The correlations were dominated by this event, and show that coupling occurred between the stratosphere (20–30 mb) and mesosphere/thermosphere (≲100 km) during the first half of January. Spectral analysis for two intervals before and after the stratwarm show that coupling was more significant during the late winter; periods near 2–3, 4–5 and ≳20 days were involved. Comparisons between daily mean winds and daily noon winds show that up to 1...

A study of satellite observations of ozone and stratospheric temperatures during 1970-1971

An account is given of the comparison between ozone observations by the Nimbus 4 backscatter ultraviolet instrument and stratospheric radiances measured by satellite infrared spectrometer (Sirs) for the period April 1970 to April 1971. Zonal means of total ozone and stratospheric radiances (temperatures) in the middle and high latitudes display annual cycles. A strong increase of ozone and temperatures is, however, observed at the northern high latitudes during the stratospheric warming of January 1971, ozone increases being very rapid after mid-October 1970. 2-mbar temperatures are derived by using Sirs radiances, and their analysis includes the comparison with 2-mbar mixing ratio of ozone for the months of October 1970 and January 1971. Results of comparison reveal remarkable asymmetries between northern and southern hemispheres. Distribution of satellite-measured global and hemispheric ozone is compared with the distribution derived by ground-based observation of total ozone and depicts differences in the southern hemisphere. There is a good correlation between global ozone and global Sirs radiances, both showing a steep fall in February 1971. Satellite observations demonstrate a decrease in global ozone in April 1971 as compared to April 1970. The eddy variations of Sirs radiances show a close correspondence with meridional structure of total ozone. Evidence is presented of strong coupling between planetary wave and zonal flow oscillations.