Stratospheric Temperature Trends Research Articles

Seasonality in future tropical lower stratospheric temperature trends

AbstractThe seasonality of the 21st century trends in tropical lower stratospheric temperature (LST) is examined in simulations by a group of comprehensive chemistry‐climate models. In contrast to the past LST trends, there is robust seasonal dependence among ensembles of the same model. Furthermore, most models show strongest cooling around July–September and minimal cooling in February–March, which results in a weakening of the seasonality in tropical LST. Sensitivity simulations with isolated forcing reveal that greenhouse gas increases dominate the future tropical LST trend. This seasonally varying LST trend is linked to changes in the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC). The BDC can influence the LST through direct dynamical heating/cooling and indirect radiative effects primarily from ozone changes due to vertical transport. The latter is found to be the main cause for the seasonality of the 21st century LST trend, while it is difficult to separate them in the past.

Recalibration and merging of SSU observations for stratospheric temperature trend studies

AbstractLong‐term observations from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) during 1979–2006 onboard NOAA historical polar orbiting satellites were recalibrated for climate change investigation. A two‐point linear calibration equation, with cold space and an internal blackbody warm target as end‐point references, was used to transfer SSU raw counts data into radiances. The warm target temperature was represented by measurements from the space side thermistor on the blackbody, and the cold space radiance was assumed to be zero. Space view corrections due to an electrical interference were applied. Intersatellite calibration was conducted simultaneously by applying calibration offsets determined from residual intersatellite biases. The recalibration reached an accuracy of 0.1–0.2 K for global means and thus is expected to improve the consistency in stratospheric temperature time series in climate reanalyses. The recalibrated SSU radiances were further adjusted to develop Version 2 of the NOAA stratospheric temperature time series. The effects being adjusted included those from changes in instrument cell pressure and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, viewing angle differences, and semidiurnal tides due to orbital drift. Intersatellite biases were carefully removed to ensure smooth transitions between satellite pairs. Differences from Version 1 included improved radiance calibration, improved adjusting schemes for diurnal drift and intersatellite biases, removal of time‐varying cell pressure adjustment for NOAA‐9 channel 1, and excluding NOAA‐7 channel 2 in the time series. In addition to the final merged data set, intermediate synthetic time series corresponding to different adjustments were also created to quantify their impact on the final trend as well as its reliability and uncertainty. Excellent matching between satellite pairs, especially the 7 year overlaps between NOAA‐11 and NOAA‐14 during 1997–2004, in intermediate as well as the final time series provided strong evidence on the validity of adjustments and thus confidence on the resulting trends. The Version 2 global mean trends for 1979–2006 were −0.69 ± 0.18, −0.77 ± 0.15, and −0.85 ± 0.15 K/decade for SSU channels 1, 2, and 3, representing temperatures of middle stratosphere, upper stratosphere, and stratosphere‐mesosphere, respectively. Among these, cooling of channel 2 was stronger and channel 3 weaker than those in UK Met Office (UKMO) data by about 1 K during the entire SSU period from 1979 to 2006. Finally, the average of the channel 1 and channel 3 anomalies in Version 2 was close to channel 2 anomalies to within 0.2 K for the entire 1979–2006 period with identical trends. This feature was found consistent with chemistry‐climate model simulations.

Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED

Abstract. We have derived ozone and temperature trends from years 2002 through 2012, from 20 to 100 km altitude, and 48° S to 48° N latitude, based on measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. For the first time, trends of ozone and temperature measured at the same times and locations are obtained, and their correlations should provide useful information about the relative importance of photochemistry versus dynamics over the longer term. We are not aware of comparable results covering this time period and spatial extent. For stratospheric ozone, until the late 1990s, previous studies found negative trends (decreasing amounts). In recent years, some empirical and modeling studies have shown the occurrence of a turnaround in the decreasing ozone, possibly beginning in the late 1990s, suggesting that the stratospheric ozone trend is leveling off or even turning positive. Our global results add more definitive evidence, expand the coverage, and show that at mid-latitudes (north and south) in the stratosphere, the ozone trends are indeed positive, with ozone having increased by a few percent from 2002 through 2012. However, in the tropics, we find negative ozone trends between 25 and 50 km. For stratospheric temperatures, the trends are mostly negatively correlated to the ozone trends. The temperature trends are positive in the tropics between 30 and 40 km, and between 20 and 25 km, at approximately 24° N and at 24° S latitude. The stratospheric temperature trends are otherwise mostly negative. In the mesosphere, the ozone trends are mostly flat, with suggestions of small positive trends at lower latitudes. The temperature trends in this region are mostly negative, showing decreases of up to ~ −3 K decade−1. In the lower thermosphere (between ~ 85 and 100 km), ozone and temperature trends are both negative. The ozone trend can approach ~ −10% decade−1, and the temperature trend can approach ~ −3 K decade−1. Aside from trends, these patterns of ozone–temperature correlations are consistent with previous studies of ozone and temperature perturbations such as the quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual (SAO) oscillations, and add confidence to the results.

Evidence for an earlier greenhouse cooling effect in the stratosphere before 1980 over the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract. This study provides a new look at the observed and calculated long-term temperature changes from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere since 1958 over the Northern Hemisphere. The data sets include the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Free University of Berlin (FU-Berlin) and the RICH radiosonde data sets as well as historical simulations with the CESM1-WACCM global model participating in CMIP5. The analysis is mainly based on monthly layer mean temperatures derived from geopotential height thicknesses in order to take advantage of the use of the independent FU-Berlin stratospheric data set of geopotential height data since 1957. This approach was followed to extend the records for the investigation of the stratospheric temperature trends to the earliest possible time. After removing the natural variability with an autoregressive multiple regression model our analysis shows that the period 1958–2011 can be divided into two distinct sub-periods of long-term temperature variability and trends: before and after 1980. By calculating trends for the summer time to reduce interannual variability, the two periods are as follows. From 1958 until 1979, a non-significant trend (0.06 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for NCEP) and slightly cooling trends (−0.12 ± 0.06 °C decade−1 for RICH) are found in the lower troposphere. The second period from 1980 to the end of the records shows significant warming (0.25 ± 0.05 °C decade−1 for both NCEP and RICH). Above the tropopause a significant cooling trend is clearly seen in the lower stratosphere both in the pre-1980 period (−0.58 ± 0.17 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.30 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.48 ± 0.20 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin) and the post-1980 period (−0.79 ± 0.18 °C decade−1 for NCEP, −0.66 ± 0.16 °C decade−1 for RICH and −0.82 ± 0.19 °C decade−1 for FU-Berlin). The cooling in the lower stratosphere persists throughout the year from the tropics up to 60° N. At polar latitudes competing dynamical and radiative processes reduce the statistical significance of these trends. Model results are in line with reanalysis and the observations, indicating a persistent cooling (−0.33 °C decade−1) in the lower stratosphere during summer before and after 1980; a feature that is also seen throughout the year. However, the lower stratosphere CESM1-WACCM modelled trends are generally lower than reanalysis and the observations. The contrasting effects of ozone depletion at polar latitudes in winter/spring and the anticipated strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation from man-made global warming at polar latitudes are discussed. Our results provide additional evidence for an early greenhouse cooling signal in the lower stratosphere before 1980, which appears well in advance relative to the tropospheric greenhouse warming signal. The suitability of early warning signals in the stratosphere relative to the troposphere is supported by the fact that the stratosphere is less sensitive to changes due to cloudiness, humidity and man-made aerosols. Our analysis also indicates that the relative contribution of the lower stratosphere versus the upper troposphere low-frequency variability is important for understanding the added value of the long-term tropopause variability related to human-induced global warming.

Distinguishing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases on Arctic stratospheric ozone and temperature trends

Whether stratospheric cooling due to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG) could increase the depletion of Arctic stratospheric ozone has been the subject of scientific and public attention for decades. Here we provide evidence that changes in the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), not WMGHG, have been the primary driver of observed Arctic lower stratospheric trends in both ozone and temperature. We do so by analyzing polar cap ozone and temperature trends in reanalysis data: these clearly suggest that both trends are mainly driven by ODS in the lower stratosphere. This observation-based finding is supported by results from a stratosphere-resolving chemistry-climate model driven with time-varying ODS and WMGHG, specified in isolation and in combination. Taken together, these results provide strong evidence that ODS are the main driver of changes in the Arctic lower stratospheric temperatures and ozone, whereas WMGHG are the primary driver of changes in the upper stratosphere.

Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends

Abstract. Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade−1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling of the Arctic stratosphere over the coming decades (2001–2049) that is for the annual mean about 40% less than the modeled cooling for the past, due to the reduction of ozone depleting substances and the resulting ozone recovery. This projected cooling in turn could offset between 15 and 40% of the Arctic ozone recovery.

Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean- atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM). Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

Satellite observations and chemistry‐climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo‐Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal‐mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry‐climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill‐like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

AbstractOzone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long‐term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low‐top versions of the CMIP5 models

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high‐top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low‐top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low‐top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low‐top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high‐top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low‐top models affects their stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, resulting in short‐lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long‐lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low‐top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high‐top models compared to the low‐top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.

Agreement in late twentieth century Southern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations and CCMVal‐2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models

We present a comparison of temperature trends using different satellite and radiosonde observations and climate (GCM) and chemistry‐climate model (CCM) outputs, focusing on the role of photochemical ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during the second half of the twentieth century. Ozone‐induced stratospheric cooling peaks during November at an altitude of approximately 100 hPa in radiosonde observations, with 1969 to 1998 trends in the range of −3.8 to −4.7 K/dec. This stratospheric cooling trend is more than 50% greater than the previously estimated value of −2.4 K/dec, which suggested that the CCMs were overestimating the stratospheric cooling, and that the less complex GCMs forced by prescribed ozone were matching observations better. Corresponding ensemble mean model trends are −3.8 K/dec for the CCMs, −3.5 K/dec for the CMIP5 GCMs, and −2.7 K/dec for the CMIP3 GCMs. Accounting for various sources of uncertainty—including sampling uncertainty, measurement error, model spread, and trend confidence intervals—observations and CCM and GCM ensembles are consistent in this new analysis. This consistency does not apply to each individual that makes up the GCM and CCM ensembles, and some do not show significant ozone‐induced cooling. Nonetheless, analysis of the joint ozone and temperature trends in the CCMs suggests that the modeled cooling/ozone‐depletion relationship is within the range of observations. Overall, this study emphasizes the need to use a wide range of observations for model validation as well as sufficient accounting of uncertainty in both models and measurements.

The Circulation Response to Idealized Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapor

Abstract Observations show that stratospheric water vapor (SWV) concentrations increased by ~30% between 1980 and 2000. SWV has also been projected to increase by up to a factor of 2 over the twenty-first century. Trends in SWV impact stratospheric temperatures, which may lead to changes in the stratospheric circulation. Perturbations in temperature and wind in the stratosphere have been shown to influence the extratropical tropospheric circulation. This study investigates the response to a uniform doubling in SWV from 3 to 6 ppmv in a comprehensive stratosphere-resolving atmospheric GCM. The increase in SWV causes stratospheric cooling with a maximum amplitude of 5–6 K in the polar lower stratosphere and 2–3 K in the tropical lower stratosphere. The zonal wind on the upper flanks of the subtropical jets is more westerly by up to ~5 m s−1. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere result in an increase in the strength of tropical upwelling associated with the Brewer–Dobson circulation of ~10% throughout the year. In the troposphere, the increase in SWV causes significant meridional dipole changes in the midlatitude zonal-mean zonal wind of up to 2.8 m s−1 at 850 hPa, which are largest in boreal winter in both hemispheres. This suggests a more poleward storm track under uniformly increased stratospheric water vapor. The circulation changes in both the stratosphere and troposphere are almost entirely due to the increase in SWV at pressures greater than 50 hPa. The results show that long-term trends in SWV may impact stratospheric temperatures and wind, the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and extratropical surface climate.

What Controls Recent Changes in the Circulation of the Southern Hemisphere: Polar Stratospheric or Equatorial Surface Temperatures?

Recent research suggests that both tropical ocean warming and stratospheric temperature anomalies due to ozone depletion have led to a poleward displacement of the midand high-latitude circulation of the Southern Hemisphere over the past century. In this study, we attempt to distinguish the influences of ocean warming and stratospheric cooling trends on seasonal changes of both the zonally symmetric and asymmetric components of the southern hemisphere circulation. Our analysis makes use of three data sets-the ERA40 reanalysis and results from two different runs of the GFDL global atmosphere and land model (AM2.1) for the period 1870 to 2004. A regression analysis was applied to two variables in each of the three data sets-the zonal component of the surface wind U(10 m) and the height at 300 hPa—to determine their correlation with zonally averaged polar stratospheric temperatures (T_polar—at 150 hPa, averaged over a band from 70S - 80S) and low-level equatorial temperatures (T_equator—at 850 hPa averaged over a band at 5S - 5N). Our analysis shows that the zonally symmetric surface winds have a considerably enhanced intensity in high latitudes of the southern hemisphere over the summer period, and that the stratospheric temperature trend, and thus ozone depletion, is the dominant contributor to that change. However, the climatic change of the asymmetric component of zonal wind component at z = 10 m (U10) as well as of 300hPa heights has been found to be large for both summer and winter periods. Our regression results show that correlation with T_equator (our proxy for global warming) explains most of the climatic changes for the asymmetric component of U10 and 300 hPa heights for summer and winter periods, suggesting the influence of warming of the global oceans on anticyclones south of the Indian Ocean and south-eastern Pacific Ocean.

Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of recent trends in lower stratospheric temperature and stratospheric residual circulation

Observations of the lower stratospheric temperature over the last three decades show seasonal variations in tropical trends together with spatial patterns in southern high latitude trends in late winter‐spring, with regions of cooling and warming of comparable magnitude. Neither aspect is reproduced in climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Here we show that stratosphere‐resolving chemistry‐climate models can produce these aspects of temperature trends. However, the seasonality of temperature trends can vary greatly among simulations of the same model, and even if one ensemble member reproduces the observed seasonality in trends there may be little agreement with observations for another member. The variability in trends among model ensemble members is related to differences in trends in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. These results suggest that the seasonality of the observed temperature trends could be the result of natural variability as well as, or instead of, a response to external forcing, and that comparison with these trends may not be a robust test of climate models.

A climatology of stratopause temperature and height in the polar vortex and anticyclones

A global climatology of stratopause temperature and height is shown using 7 years of Microwave Limb Sounder satellite data, from 2004 to 2011. Stratopause temperature and height is interpreted in the context of the polar vortices and anticyclones defined by the Goddard Earth Observing System meteorological analyses. Multiyear, monthly mean geographic patterns in stratopause temperature and height are shown to depend on the location of the polar vortices and anticyclones. The anomalous winters of 2005/2006 and 2008/2009 are considered separately in this analysis. In the anomalous years, we show that the elevated stratopause in February is confined to the vortex core. This is the first study to show that the stratopause is, on average, 20 K colder and 5–10 km lower in the Aleutian anticyclone than in ambient air during the Arctic winter. During September in the Antarctic the stratopause is, on average, 10 K colder inside anticyclones south of Australia. The regional temperature and height anomalies, which are due to vertical ageostrophic motion associated with baroclinic instability, are shown to be climatological features. The mean structure of the temperature and height anomalies is consistent with moderate baroclinic growth below the stratopause and decay above. This work furthers current understanding of the geography of the stratopause by emphasizing the role of synoptic baroclinic instability, whereby anticyclones establish zonally asymmetric climatological patterns in stratopause temperature and height. This work highlights the need to consider zonal asymmetries when calculating upper stratospheric temperature trends.

Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding

AbstractWe review the scientific literature since the 1960s to examine the evolution of modeling tools and observations that have advanced understanding of global stratospheric temperature changes. Observations show overall cooling of the stratosphere during the period for which they are available (since the late 1950s and late 1970s from radiosondes and satellites, respectively), interrupted by episodes of warming associated with volcanic eruptions, and superimposed on variations associated with the solar cycle. There has been little global mean temperature change since about 1995. The temporal and vertical structure of these variations are reasonably well explained by models that include changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols, and solar output, although there are significant uncertainties in the temperature observations and regarding the nature and influence of past changes in stratospheric water vapor. As a companion to a recent WIREs review of tropospheric temperature trends, this article identifies areas of commonality and contrast between the tropospheric and stratospheric trend literature. For example, the increased attention over time to radiosonde and satellite data quality has contributed to better characterization of uncertainty in observed trends both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere, and has highlighted the relative deficiency of attention to observations in the middle and upper stratosphere. In contrast to the relatively unchanging expectations of surface and tropospheric warming primarily induced by greenhouse gas increases, stratospheric temperature change expectations have arisen from experiments with a wider variety of model types, showing more complex trend patterns associated with a greater diversity of forcing agents. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 592–616 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.125This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

[1] Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ∼45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary differently with altitude in the NH and SH but add up to similar trends at mesospheric cloud heights.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Between 10 and 70 hPa During the Period 1948-2009

Trends in zonal mean temperatures between 10 and 70 hPa have been assessed for the period 1948-2009 using zonal monthly mean temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. Monthly temperature linear trends were calculated for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere at a 5o in latitude. The observed trend pattern agrees with a general cooling for every month. The area of negative trends, in the latitude-month grid, increases as we go down in the stratosphere. Positive trends are also observed, mainly at 10 hPa for equatorial zones and summer northern and southern latitudes, and also at southern high-latitudes during the months July-February for every height analyzed. The positive trends observed at 10 hPa at equatorial and mid-latitudes are due to a from the beginning of the record until the beginning of 1980s, coincident with the El Chichon eruption. In the case of high latitudes, also at 10 hPa, there seems to be a step in 1979. For lower altitudes the positive trends are smoother. In the case of 10 hPa we suggest as a hint, that the temperature behavior for the warming cases follows the 11-year running mean of the total solar irradiance.