Stratospheric Temperature Changes Research Articles

Sensitivity of the Antarctic Polar Vortex to Temperature Changes in the Lower Subtropical Stratosphere

Sensitivity of the Antarctic Polar Vortex to Temperature Changes in the Lower Subtropical Stratosphere

Antarctic polar vortex dynamics in 2019 and 2020 under the influence of the subtropical stratosphere

The trend of strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex in late spring and early summer (November–December) has been observed in recent decades. A good example of this trend is the dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex in 2020 when it existed until the last week of December. In 2019, conversely, on the contrary, an unusually early breakup of the polar vortex occurred, a minor sudden stratospheric warming was recorded. Strengthening (or weakening) of the Antarctic polar vortex occurs as a result of an increase (or decrease) in the stratospheric meridional temperature gradient under conditions of growth (or decline) in the temperature of the lower subtropical stratosphere. We considered the temperature variations in the lower subtropical stratosphere in the spring of 2019 and 2020 and the corresponding response of the Antarctic polar vortex. The dynamics of the Antarctic polar vortex in September–October 2019 and November 2020 was largely synchronized with the temperature changes in the lower subtropical stratosphere relative to climatological means. Using correlation analysis, we show that the Antarctic polar vortex dynamics in December is largely due to the temperature changes in the lower subtropical stratosphere that occurred in the second half of November, which manifested itself in 2020.

Elastic functional changepoint detection of climate impacts from localized sources

AbstractDetecting changepoints in functional data has become an important problem as interest in monitoring of climate phenomenon has increased, where the data is functional in nature. The observed data often contains both amplitude (‐axis) and phase (‐axis) variability. If not accounted for properly, true changepoints may be undetected, and the estimated underlying mean change functions will be incorrect. In this article, an elastic functional changepoint method is developed which properly accounts for these types of variability. The method can detect amplitude and phase changepoints which current methods in the literature do not, as they focus solely on the amplitude changepoint. This method can easily be implemented using the functions directly or can be computed via functional principal component analysis to ease the computational burden. We apply the method and its nonelastic competitors to both simulated data and observed data to show its efficiency in handling data with phase variation with both amplitude and phase changepoints. We use the method to evaluate potential changes in stratospheric temperature due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991. Using an epidemic changepoint model, we find evidence of a increase in stratospheric temperature during a period that contains the immediate aftermath of Mt. Pinatubo, with most detected changepoints occurring in the tropics as expected.

Stratospheric Ozone Changes Damp the CO2-Induced Acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation

Abstract The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations changes the atmospheric temperature distribution, which in turn affects the circulation. A robust circulation response to CO2 forcing is the strengthening of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), with associated consequences for transport of trace gases such as ozone. Ozone is further affected by the CO2-induced stratospheric cooling via the temperature dependency of ozone chemistry. These ozone changes in turn influence stratospheric temperatures and thereby modify the CO2-induced circulation changes. In this study, we perform dedicated model simulations to quantify the modification of the circulation response to CO2 forcing by stratospheric ozone. Specifically, we compare simulations of the atmosphere with preindustrial and with quadrupled CO2 climate conditions, in which stratospheric ozone is held fixed or is adapted to the new climate state. The results of the residual circulation and mean age of air show that ozone changes damp the CO2-induced BDC increase by up to 20%. This damping of the BDC strengthening is linked to an ozone-induced relative enhancement of the meridional temperature gradient in the lower stratosphere in summer, thereby leading to stronger stratospheric easterlies that suppress wave propagation. Additionally, we find a systematic weakening of the polar vortices in winter and spring. In the Southern Hemisphere, ozone reduces the CO2-induced delay of the final warming date by 50%. Significance Statement A robust circulation response to enhanced CO2 is the strengthening of the equator-to-pole circulation in the stratosphere, the so-called Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), which affects the ozone layer by tracer transport. This in turn alters stratospheric temperatures and thereby modifies the stratospheric circulation. In the present study, we perform model experiments to quantify the ozone-induced circulation changes caused by quadrupled CO2 concentrations. The results show that ozone changes damp the CO2-induced BDC strengthening due to radiative effects of the redistributed ozone layer by enhanced CO2. These ozone modifications lead to strengthened stratospheric easterlies in summer and decelerated westerlies in winter and spring. Moreover, the ozone changes reduce the CO2-induced delay of the polar vortex break down date in the Southern Hemisphere.

On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century

Abstract. The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ∼0.05 and ∼0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ∼0.82 K for the 1809 event and ∼1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates.

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations

AbstractWater vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified‐dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long‐term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD‐WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold‐point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

The Effect of Solar Activity on Stratospheric Temperature Over Iraq for Period 1948-2014

Stratospheric temperature changes are very important for climate systems through atmospheric circulation and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The relationship between solar modulation potential SMP as a measure of solar activity and variation of temperature in upper, middle and lower stratosphere over Iraq for the period 1948-2014 (for about five solar cycles) has been presented in this study. For upper, middle and lower stratosphere we found that stratospheric temperatures decreased, this descending trend is offset by obviously descending trend in solar activity for the same period. The correlation coefficients between annual solar modulation potential SMP and stratospheric temperature have been examined at pressure levels (10,20,30,50,70 mb) that represent the upper, middle and lower stratosphere over 67 years (1948 to 2014). All levels have positive correlation. The correlation coefficient (R) in upper stratosphere at level 10 mb has been 0.4, in middle stratosphere at level (20, 30 mb) the correlation coefficient (R) has been 5.3 and 0.6 respectively. For lower stratosphere at level (50, 70 mb) R has been 0.57 and 0.68 respectively.

Subseasonal Variation in Neptune’s Mid-infrared Emission

Abstract We present an analysis of all currently available ground-based imaging of Neptune in the mid-infrared. Dating between 2003 and 2020, the images reveal changes in Neptune’s mid-infrared (∼8–25 μm) emission over time in the years surrounding Neptune’s 2005 southern summer solstice. Images sensitive to stratospheric ethane (∼12 μm), methane (∼8 μm), and CH3D (∼9 μm) display significant subseasonal temporal variation on regional and global scales. Comparison with H2 S(1) hydrogen quadrupole (∼17.035 μm) spectra suggests that these changes are primarily related to stratospheric temperature changes. The stratosphere appears to have cooled between 2003 and 2009 across multiple filtered wavelengths, followed by a dramatic warming of the south pole between 2018 and 2020. Conversely, upper-tropospheric temperatures—inferred from ∼17 to 25 μm imaging—appear invariant during this period, except for the south pole, which appeared warmest between 2003 and 2006. We discuss the observed variability in the context of seasonal forcing, tropospheric meteorology, and the solar cycle. Collectively, these data provide the strongest evidence to date that processes produce subseasonal variation on both global and regional scales in Neptune’s stratosphere.

Impact of Unmitigated HFC Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone at the End of the 21st Century as Simulated by Chemistry‐Climate Models

AbstractHydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have been increasingly replacing chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. Although their direct chemical ozone‐depleting potential is negligible, as potent greenhouse gases they modify atmospheric temperature and circulation patterns, thereby indirectly influencing stratospheric ozone recovery. Measurements and model projections must continue to evaluate HFC limitation measures and assess the long‐term impact of HFCs on the atmospheric radiation budget and stratospheric ozone. In this study, we present multi‐member ensemble simulations designed to estimate the impact of HFCs on stratospheric temperature, ozone and circulation changes at the end of the century. We compared simulations with and without HFCs for two three‐dimensional chemistry‐climate models that use the same chemistry module but different physical schemes. At low and mid‐latitudes, temperature and ozone responses were comparable for both models and in general agreement with previous studies. HFCs induced a marked temperature increase up to about 10–20 hPa and vertically alternating positive and negative ozone anomalies. We explained this pattern by competing effects of vertical motion (low and middle stratosphere) and temperature (upper stratosphere) anomalies. At northern high latitudes, there were strong discrepancies with previous studies and between the models themselves, attributed to differences in ozone anomalies caused by wave activity during winter. Quantitatively, we found a net positive, but small, HFC impact on total ozone amounts. Largest anomalies were less than 1% in the winter polar stratosphere. Our results indicate that increasing HFC amounts will likely have a limited impact on stratospheric ozone recovery within this century, with large uncertainty in the polar regions.

Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

Abstract. We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO2/yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (−3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to −2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures.

Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean

Abstract. In a previous study the quasi-instantaneous chemical impacts (rapid adjustments) of strongly enhanced methane (CH4) mixing ratios have been analysed. However, to quantify the influence of the respective slow climate feedbacks on the chemical composition it is necessary to include the radiation-driven temperature feedback. Therefore, we perform sensitivity simulations with doubled and quintupled present-day (year 2010) CH4 mixing ratios with the chemistry–climate model EMAC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg version – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry) and include in a novel set-up a mixed-layer ocean model to account for tropospheric warming. Strong increases in CH4 lead to a reduction in the hydroxyl radical in the troposphere, thereby extending the CH4 lifetime. Slow climate feedbacks counteract this reduction in the hydroxyl radical through increases in tropospheric water vapour and ozone, thereby dampening the extension of CH4 lifetime in comparison with the quasi-instantaneous response. Changes in the stratospheric circulation evolve clearly with the warming of the troposphere. The Brewer–Dobson circulation strengthens, affecting the response of trace gases, such as ozone, water vapour and CH4 in the stratosphere, and also causing stratospheric temperature changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the increase in stratospheric water vapour is reduced with respect to the quasi-instantaneous response. We find that this difference cannot be explained by the response of the cold point and the associated water vapour entry values but by a weaker strengthening of the in situ source of water vapour through CH4 oxidation. However, in the lower stratosphere water vapour increases more strongly when tropospheric warming is accounted for, enlarging its overall radiative impact. The response of the stratosphere adjusted temperatures driven by slow climate feedbacks is dominated by these increases in stratospheric water vapour as well as strongly decreased ozone mixing ratios above the tropical tropopause, which result from enhanced tropical upwelling. While rapid radiative adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour make an essential contribution to the effective CH4 radiative forcing, the radiative impact of the respective slow feedbacks is rather moderate. In line with this, the climate sensitivity from CH4 changes in this chemistry–climate model set-up is not significantly different from the climate sensitivity in carbon-dioxide-driven simulations, provided that the CH4 effective radiative forcing includes the rapid adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour changes.

Analysis of the correlation between horizontal wind and 11-year solar activity over Langfang, China

In this study, long term observations of medium frequency (MF) radar at Langfang site (39.4°N, 116.7°E) from 2009 to 2020 have been used to analyze the dependence of the 11-year solar cycle on horizontal winds in the local mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The results show that the zonal wind is positively correlated with solar activity during spring at 80–84 km, and during summer at 80–82 km; the meridional wind is positively correlated with solar activity during spring at 84–88 km and during summer at 84–90 km. In contrast, the results show no correlation between the horizontal wind and solar activity in autumn and winter. We attempt to explain the correlations in terms of the changes in stratospheric temperature and the net flux of gravity waves during solar activities. In addition, annual and semiannual oscillations of the zonal/meridional wind were found by using the least squares fitting method on daily horizontal winds, which show negative correlations with solar activity at heights of 80–90 km.

Benchmark Calculations of Radiative Forcing by Greenhouse Gases

AbstractChanges in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line‐by‐line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear‐sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a reanalysis of present‐day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from preindustrial times to the present day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m−2. Six contributing line‐by‐line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m−2 while even recently developed parameterizations have typical errors 4 or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line‐by‐line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line‐by‐line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations, and the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature changes estimated by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest nonlinearity.

Radiative Relaxation Time Scales Quantified from Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive events that occur in the winter hemisphere’s polar stratosphere and are capable of producing temperature anomalies upward of +50 K within a matter of days. While much work has been dedicated toward determining how SSWs occur and their ability to interact with the underlying troposphere, one underexplored aspect is the role of radiation, especially during the recovery phase of SSWs. Using a radiative transfer model and a heating rate analysis for distinct layers of the stratosphere averaged over the 60°–90°N polar region, this paper accounts for the radiative contribution to the removal of the anomalous temperatures associated with SSWs. In total 17 events are investigated over the 1979–2016 period. This paper reveals that in the absence of dynamical heating following major SSWs, longwave radiative cooling dominates and often results in a strong negative temperature anomaly. The polar winter stratospheric temperature change driven by the radiative cooling is characterized by an exponential decay of temperature with an increasing e-folding time of 5.7 ± 2.0 to 14.6 ± 4.4 days from the upper to middle stratosphere. The variability of the radiative relaxation rates among the SSWs was determined to be most impacted by the initial temperature of the stratosphere and the combined dynamic and solar heating rates following the onset of the events. We also found that trace-gas anomalies have little impact on the radiative heating rates and the temperature evolution during the SSWs in the mid- to upper stratosphere.

Stratospheric radiative feedback limited by the tropospheric influence in global warming

Whether the stratospheric radiative feedback amplifies the global warming remains under debate. The stratospheric water vapor (SWV), one of the primary feedbacks in the stratosphere, is argued to be an important contributor to the global warming. On the other hand, the overall stratospheric feedback, which consists of both the SWV feedback and the stratospheric temperature (ST) feedback, does not amount to a significant value. The key to reconciling these seemingly contradictory arguments is to understand the ST change. Here, we develop a method to decompose the ST change and to quantify the decomposed feedbacks. We find that the SWV feedback, which consists of a 0.04 W m−2 K−1 direct impact on the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and 0.11 W m−2 K−1 indirect impact via ST cooling, is offset by a negative ST feedback of − 0.13 W m−2 K−1 that is radiatively driven by the tropospheric warming. This compensation results in an insignificant overall stratospheric feedback.

An Estimate of the Relative Contributions of Sea Surface Temperature Variations in Various Regions to Stratospheric Change

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of global and regional sea surface temperature (SST) warming from the Industrial Revolution to the present on the stratosphere using a climate model, and estimates the relative contributions of SST warming in different regions. The observed global SST warming is found to cause colder and stronger stratospheric zonal circulations in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and a colder lower stratosphere in the tropics and ozone depletion. This occurs because the warming in the tropical Atlantic and in the north Indian Ocean and North Pacific strongly cool the stratosphere in the southern and northern high latitudes, respectively. The cooling in the lower stratosphere at lower and midlatitudes is mainly caused by SST warming in the tropical Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The changes in stratospheric temperature are related to changes in circulation and ozone. In addition, we investigate the effects on the stratosphere of ideal 1-K uniform warming of SST in different oceans and compare these effects with those caused by the realistic SST warming. The observed global SST warming and 1-K uniform global SST warming have opposite effects on the high-latitude stratosphere in both hemispheres: 1-K uniform global SST warming results in warmer and weaker stratospheric zonal circulations and a corresponding increase in ozone. This is because the 1-K uniform increase in SST in the tropical Pacific causes extremely strong warming and weakening stratospheric zonal circulations. The contribution of a 1-K uniform increase of SST in the tropical Pacific to stratospheric temperature, circulation, and ozone anomalies overwhelms that of a 1-K uniform increase of SST in other regions.

Verification of an Approximate Thermodynamic Equation with Application to Study on Arctic Stratospheric Temperature Changes

Abstract Temperature changes in the Arctic lower stratosphere on both short- and long-term time scales are critical for changing the magnitude of ozone losses in the Arctic vortex. In this paper, an approximate month-to-month temperature change equation is constructed and extended to a new form for decade-to-decade changes. Then we provide a verification of these equations and show an example of an application for partitioning between the dynamical and radiative contributions to the Arctic lower-stratospheric temperature decadal changes, as well as the trends, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data during the period of 1980–99. At 100 hPa, the month-to-month Arctic temperature increment is a small term compared to the dynamical heating and diabatic heating, which are largely canceling terms with maximum magnitudes in November–April and October–March, respectively. However, it is not the case for their decadal changes and the decadal change of the Arctic current-month temperature compared to those of the regressed dynamical heating and radiative heating, where the current-month decadal changes and the corresponding trends are approached except in March and a rough agreement exists between these trends and those reported in other studies. The dynamical plus diabatic heating term and the temperature increment, as well as their decadal changes, are roughly balanced during the annual oscillation. However, some departures exist in both cases because of the large deviations or uncertainties of relevant terms and also probably due to the quasigeostrophic approximation and the eddy heat flux approximation of the dynamical heating, and a restricted condition of the eddy heat flux approximation is given at the end.

Historical Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing Using the CMIP6 Database

AbstractWe calculate ozone radiative forcing (RF) and stratospheric temperature adjustments for the period 1850–2014 using the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ozone data set. The CMIP6 total ozone RF (1850s to 2000s) is 0.28 ± 0.17 W m−2 (which is 80% higher than our CMIP5 estimation), and 0.30 ± 0.17 W m−2 out to the present day (2014). The total ozone RF grows rapidly until the 1970s, slows toward the 2000s, and shows a renewed growth thereafter. Since the 1990s the shortwave RF exceeds the longwave RF. Global stratospheric ozone RF is positive between 1930 and 1970 and then turns negative but remains positive in the Northern Hemisphere throughout. Derived stratospheric temperature changes show a localized cooling in the subtropical lower stratosphere due to tropospheric ozone increases and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion by more than 1 K already prior to the satellite era (1980) and by more than 2 K out to the present day (2014).

Optimizing the Definition of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractVarious criteria exist for determining the occurrence of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), but the most common is based on the reversal of the climatological westerly zonal-mean zonal winds at 60° latitude and 10 hPa in the winter stratosphere. This definition was established at a time when observations of the stratosphere were sparse. Given greater access to data in the satellite era, a systematic analysis of the optimal parameters of latitude, altitude, and threshold for the wind reversal is now possible. Here, the frequency of SSWs, the strength of the wave forcing associated with the events, changes in stratospheric temperature and zonal winds, and surface impacts are examined as a function of the stratospheric wind reversal parameters. The results provide a methodical assessment of how to best define a standard metric for major SSWs. While the continuum nature of stratospheric variability makes it difficult to identify a decisively optimal threshold, there is a relatively narrow envelope of thresholds that work well—and the original focus at 60° latitude and 10 hPa lies within this window.

Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

AbstractObserved and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979–2000) and the early 21st (2000–2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre‐2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite‐signed (i.e., “mirrored”) patterns of ozone increases and warming post‐2000. An interactive chemistry‐climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long‐term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000–2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.