Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Research Articles

Enhanced stratosphere-troposphere and tropics-Arctic couplings in the 2023/24 winter

The stratosphere-troposphere and the tropics-Arctic couplings were intermittently enhanced in the 2023/24 winter. Here we used ERA5 reanalysis data and found that due to the amplification of planetary wavenumber 1 and 2 pulses, three displacement-type sudden stratospheric warming events occurred in one winter under the background conditions of warming equatorial middle and east Pacific, active equatorial convections, and easterly stratospheric equatorial winds. During the sudden stratospheric warming events, the stratospheric disturbances propagated downward to the surface, followed by continental cold surges. The residual meridional circulation was strengthened across the tropics and Arctic, anomalously more water vapor was transported into the stratosphere in tropics, while ozone content diminished in the lower stratosphere and grew in the upper stratosphere over the tropics. Meanwhile, water vapor and ozone over the Arctic exhibited a dipping pattern from the upper to the lower stratosphere.

Mechanisms Underlying the Changes in Sporadic E Layers During Sudden Stratospheric Warming

During sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, significant modifications occur, not only in the neutral atmosphere, but also in the ionosphere. Specifically, sporadic E layers in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere regions significantly disrupt satellite communication. Although research has frequently focused on ionospheric alterations during SSW events, detailed studies on sporadic E layers remain limited. Examining these variations during SSW events could enhance our understanding of the interaction mechanisms between the ionosphere and the neutral atmosphere, and provide insights into the patterns of sporadic E layer alterations. This study analyzed the behavior of sporadic E layers during the 2008/2009 winter SSW period using data from three Japanese stations and satellite observations. The principal findings included the following: (1) The enhancement in the critical frequency of the sporadic E layers was most notable following the transition from easterly to westerly winds at 60° N at a 10 hPa altitude, accompanied by quasi 6-day and quasi 16-day oscillations in frequency. (2) The daily average zonal and meridional wind speeds in the MLT region also exhibited quasi 6-day and quasi 16-day oscillations, aligning with the observed periodicities in the critical frequency of the sporadic E layers. (3) Planetary waves were shown to modulate the amplitude of diurnal and semidiurnal tides, influencing the sporadic E layers. Furthermore, a wavelet analysis of foEs data with a time resolution of 0.25 h demonstrated that planetary waves also modulate the frequency of diurnal tides, thereby affecting the sporadic E layers. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the formation mechanisms and prediction of sporadic E layer behavior.

Global-scale gravity wave analysis methodology for the ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate CAIRT

Abstract. In the past, satellite climatologies of gravity waves (GWs) have initiated progress in their representation in global models. However, these could not provide the phase speed and direction distributions needed for a better understanding of the interaction between GWs and the large-scale winds directly. The ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate CAIRT could provide such observations. CAIRT would use a limb-imaging Michelson interferometer resolving a wide spectral range, allowing temperature and trace gas mixing ratio measurements. With the proposed instrument design, a vertical resolution of 1 km, along-track sampling of 50 km, and across-track sampling of 25 km in a 400 km wide swath will be achieved. In particular, this allows for the observation of three-dimensional (3D), GW-resolving temperature fields throughout the middle atmosphere. In this work, we present the methodology for the GW analysis of CAIRT observations using a limited-volume 3D sinusoidal fit (S3D) wave analysis technique. We assess the capability of CAIRT to provide high-quality GW fields by the generation of synthetic satellite observations from high-resolution model data and comparison of the synthetic observations to the original model fields. For the assessment, wavelength spectra, phase speed spectra, horizontal distributions, and zonal means of GW momentum flux (GWMF) are considered. The atmospheric events we use to exemplify the capabilities of CAIRT are the 2006 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropics, and the mesospheric preconditioning phase of the 2019 SSW event. Our findings indicate that CAIRT would provide highly reliable observations not only of global-scale GW distributions and drag patterns but also of specific wave events and their associated wave parameters. Even under worse-than-expected noise levels of the instrument, the resulting GW measurements are highly consistent with the original model data. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the estimated GW parameters can be used for ray tracing, which physically extends the horizontal coverage of the observations beyond the orbit tracks.

Large-ensemble assessment of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex morphology and disruptions

Abstract. The stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) comprises strong westerly winds during winter in each hemisphere. Despite ample knowledge on the SPV's high variability and its frequent disruptions by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), questions on how well current climate models can simulate these dynamics remain open. Specifically the accuracy in reproducing SPV morphology and the differentiation between split and displacement SSW events are crucial to assess the models in this regard. In this study, we evaluate the capability of climate models to simulate the NH SPV by comparing large ensembles of historical simulations to ERA5 reanalysis data. For this, we analyze geometric-based diagnostics at three pressure levels that describe SPV morphology. Our analysis reveals that no model exactly reproduces SPV morphology of ERA5 in all diagnostics at all altitudes. Concerning the SPV morphology as stretching (aspect ratio) and location (centroid latitude) parameters, most models are biased to some extent, but the strongest deviations can be found for the vortex-splitting parameter (excess kurtosis). Moreover, some models underestimate the variability of SPV strength. Assessing the reliability of the ensembles in distinguishing SSWs subdivided into SPV displacement and split events, we find large differences between the model ensembles. In general, SPV displacements are represented better than splits in the simulation ensembles, and high-top models and models with finer vertical resolution perform better. A good performance in representing the morphological diagnostics does not necessarily imply reliability and therefore a good performance in simulating displacements and splits. Assessing the model biases and their representation of SPV dynamics is needed to improve credibility of climate model projections, for example, by giving stronger weightings to better performing models.

Cyclone‐Like Features Within the Stratospheric Polar‐Night Vortex

AbstractDistinctive synoptic‐scale (∼1,500 km) flow features are identified within the core of the stratospheric polar‐night vortex at stratopause altitudes (∼50 km). Typically they comprise a train or a complex pattern of transient vortices, each characterized by enhanced values of potential vorticity (PV) and relative vorticity but with a weaker thermal signal. In the MERRA‐2 (and two other) reanalysis fields these cyclone‐like features persist for several days, occur episodically, and form essentially within the core of the polar‐night vortex itself. Their origin is plausibly linked to a form of barotropic instability associated with a radiatively‐induced annular ring of enhanced PV. Moreover, their ubiquity and dynamics carries possible implications for: ‐ the structure of the larger‐scale polar vortex and its preconditioning ahead of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event; the distribution of trace‐constituents within the core; and the features representation in extended range/seasonal prediction and climate models.

Large-scale dynamic processes during the minor and major sudden stratospheric warming events in January–February 2023

Using data from reanalyses of meteorological information, this study examines peculiarities of the thermodynamic regime of the Arctic stratosphere in the winter season of 2022–2023. For this purpose, components of the global meridional circulation, wave activity fluxes, volume of polar stratospheric clouds type I (PSC NAT) are analyzed, as well as changes in these indicators during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events formed in January–February. The main features of the 2022–2023 winter season were the following: (1) a persistent cold stratospheric polar vortex was observed until mid-January, which caused the PSC NAT volume growth to its maximum values since 1980; (2) enhanced wave activity from mid-January led to the formation of a minor SSW at the end of January, an increase in the temperature of the lower stratosphere and a sharp reduction in PSC NAT; (3) a week of intensification of the polar vortex was then observed, followed by a weakening due to the next burst of wave activity propagation during the second SSW event in mid-February. This second SSW event was major, accompanied by a reversal of the mean zonal wind, which lasted until early March; (4) meridional heat flux in January–February 2023 was the highest since 1948, resulting in unprecedented warming of the lower Arctic stratosphere and preventing ozone depletion in March; (5) the minor SSW at the end of January was accompanied by a more intense change in the meridional circulation than the major SSW in mid-February. Formation of ozone mini-hole over Northern and Central Europe in February 2023 was associated with the strengthening of the anticyclone, leading to a stratopause elevation and northward transport of ozone-poor air masses from the subtropics along the western periphery of the anticyclone additionally to related to the major SSW temperature changes affected the ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere.

Response of the low latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the recent sudden stratospheric warming events of 2017–18 and 2019

Upper mesospheric wind data acquired by the medium frequency radar at Kolhapur (16.7oN, 74.2oE) and Modern–Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application version 2 (MERRA-2) temperature and wind reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the dynamical response of the low-latitude middle atmosphere to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events that occurred during the 2017–18 and 2018–19 winters. When the amplitude of the high-latitude stratospheric planetary wave (PW) of zonal wavenumber one reduces considerably with the onset of the SSW event, the low-latitude mesospheric PW over Kolhapur also shows a considerable reduction in the PW activity. It is noteworthy that the upper mesospheric winds are eastward for approximately 3 weeks after the onset of SSW. The reduced PW activity is associated with the enhanced gravity wave activity in the meridional wind during the SSW 2018–19 event. The plane of propagation of gravity waves obtained from the perturbation ellipse method suggests that their predominant plane of propagation is in the north–south direction. The persistence of the eastward winds is suggested to be due to the interaction of the northward propagating gravity waves with the mean flow, leading to the eastward acceleration due to the Coriolis force.

Influences of sudden stratospheric warmings on the ionosphere above Okinawa

Abstract. We analyzed the ionosonde observations from Okinawa (26.7° N, 128.1° E; magnetic latitude: 17.0° N) for the years from 1972 to 2023. Okinawa is in the northern low-latitude ionosphere, where the influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the ionosphere are expected to be stronger than in the mid- and high-latitude ionospheres. We divided the dataset into winters with major SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere (SSW years) and winters without major SSWs (no-SSW years). During the SSW years, the daily cycle of the F2-region electron density maximum (NmF2) is stronger than in the no-SSW years. The relative NmF2 amplitudes of solar and lunar tidal components (S2, O1, M2, MK3) are stronger by 3 % to 8 % in the SSW years than in the no-SSW years. The semidiurnal amplitude, averaged across 29 SSW events, has a significant peak at the central date of the SSW (epoch time 0 of the composite analysis). The SSW influence is not strong: the semidiurnal amplitude is about 38.2 % in the SSW years and about 34.0 % in the no-SSW years (relative to the NmF2 of the background ionosphere). However, there is a sharp decrease in the amplitude of about 10 % after the SSW peak is reached. The amplitude of the diurnal component does not show a single peak at the central date of the SSW. We present the maximal semidiurnal amplitudes of the SSWs since 1972. The SSW of 31 December 1984 has the strongest amplitude (162 %) in the ionosphere above Okinawa (with a high geomagnetic activity, Ap, of 37 nT). The most surprising finding of the study is the strong lunar tides with relative amplitudes of about 10 % and the discovery of a terdiurnal lunar tide (5 %) in the NmF2 during the SSW years. The periods of the ionospheric lunar tides align with the periods of ocean tides and lunisolar variations in the atmosphere.

Opposite spectral properties of Rossby waves during weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events

Abstract. In this study we provide a systematic characterization of Rossby wave activity during the 25 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and 31 strong polar vortex (SPV) events that occurred in the period 1979–2021, identifying the specific tropospheric and stratospheric waves displaying anomalous behaviour during such events. Space–time spectral analysis is applied to ERA5 data for this purpose, so that both the wavenumber and the zonal phase speed of the waves can be assessed. We find that SSW events are associated with a reduction in the phase speed of Rossby waves, first in the stratosphere and then in the troposphere; SPV events are tied to a simultaneous increase of phase speed across vertical levels. Phase speed anomalies become significant around the event and persist for 2–3 weeks afterwards. Changes of Rossby wave properties in the stratosphere during SSW and SPV events are dominated by changes in the background flow, with a systematic reduction or increase, respectively, in eastward propagation of the waves across most wavenumbers. In the troposphere, on the other hand, the effect of the background flow is also complemented by changes in wave properties, with a shift towards higher wavenumbers during SSW events and towards lower wavenumbers for SPV events. The opposite response between SSW and SPV events is also visible in the meridional heat and momentum flux co-spectra, which highlight from a novel perspective the connection between stratospheric Rossby waves and upward propagation of waves.

Influence of temperature changes and vertically transported trace species on the structure of MLT region during major SSW events

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large-scale dynamic phenomena which can significantly affect the circulation, temperature, and composition of different atmospheric layers. The circulation changes during these events induce variations in the atmospheric neutral and ion densities and cause the vertical transport of various trace species. The severity of effects induced by major SSW events in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region has received less attention than that in the lower atmosphere. The major influence of temperature and vertically transported trace species on the energetics, thermal and compositional structure of the MLT region has been investigated during two major SSW events with elevated stratopause. Variations in the nitric oxide volume emission rates (NO-VER), a measure of infrared radiative cooling by NO, are reported for the first time in the context of the dynamical changes during SSW events. This study investigates the role of temperature and NO variability on the energetics of the MLT region, particularly during the formation of elevated stratopause. The effects of supplemented NO density on the secondary ozone layer has also been investigated during these events, the anti-correlation between secondary ozone and NO does not conclude on the role of NO in the secondary ozone peak density variations. Notwithstanding the similarity in terms of defining characteristics, both SSW events impact the secondary ozone layer differently. In contrast to earlier studies, it is suggested that along with temperature, the availability of atomic oxygen is the major factor for the observed variation in secondary ozone during the SSW events.

Impacts of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Equatorial Plasma Bubbles: Suppression of EPBs and Quasi-6-Day Oscillations

This study investigates the day-to-day variability of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) over the Atlantic–American region and their connections to atmospheric planetary waves during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2021. The investigation is conducted on the basis of the GOLD (Global Observations of the Limb and Disk) observations, the ICON (Ionospheric Connection Explorer) neutral wind dataset, ionosonde measurements, and simulations from the WACCM-X (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere–ionosphere eXtension). We found that the intensity of EPBs was notably reduced by 35% during the SSW compared with the non-SSW period. Furthermore, GOLD observations and ionosonde data show that significant quasi-6-day oscillation (Q6DO) was observed in both the intensity of EPBs and the localized growth rate of Rayleigh–Taylor (R-T) instability during the 2021 SSW event. The analysis of WACCM-X simulations and ICON neutral winds reveals that the Q6DO pattern coincided with an amplification of the quasi-6-day wave (Q6DW) in WACCM-X simulations and noticeable ∼6-day periodicity in ICON zonal winds. The combination of these multi-instrument observations and numerical simulations demonstrates that certain planetary waves like the Q6DW can significantly influence the day-to-day variability of EPBs, especially during the SSW period, through modulating the strength of prereversal enhancement and the growth rate of R-T instability via the wind-driven dynamo. These findings provide novel insights into the connection between atmospheric planetary waves and ionospheric EPBs.

Quasi‐5‐Day Oscillations During Arctic Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings From 2005 to 2021

AbstractTraveling quasi‐5‐day oscillations (Q5DOs) with different wavenumbers are independently observed in the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere during many recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, but their common activities during SSWs are still unclear. Based on the geopotential height data measured by the Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from August 2004 to March 2021, we statistically investigate the characteristics of the Q5DOs during eight Arctic major SSW events. The amplitudes of the Q5DOs are obtained by a new fitting method, which inhibits the effect of rapid changes in stationary planetary waves during SSWs. Our results reveal a robust feature that Q5DOs were enhanced during all interested SSW events. Our analysis indicates that eastward and westward propagating Q5DOs can be simultaneously enhanced during SSWs. Additionally, the wavenumbers of the enhanced Q5DOs are found to be associated with the geometry of polar vortices. Extremely strong westward Q5DOs with wavenumber 2 are consistently observed during split‐type major SSWs.

Connections between low- and high- frequency variabilities of stratospheric northern annular mode and Arctic ozone depletion

Previous studies have demonstrated a dynamical linkage between the ozone and stratospheric polar vortex strength, but only a few have mentioned the persistence of the anomalous vortex. This study uses the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to decompose the winter stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) variabilities into relatively low frequencies (>4 months) and high frequencies (<2 months) (denoted as NAML and NAMH) and investigates their relationship with the Arctic ozone concentration in March. A closer relationship is found between the Arctic ozone and the NAML, i.e. a persistently strong stratospheric polar vortex in winter (especially February–March) is more critical than a short-lasting extremely strong vortex in contributing to Arctic ozone depletion. We find that a negative NAMH or major stratospheric sudden warming event in early winter could be a precursor for the anomalous depletion of Arctic ozone in March. The NAML changes are further related to the warm North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and ‘central-type’ El Niño-like or La Niña-like SST anomalies in early winter months, as well as cold North Atlantic SST anomalies and higher sea ice concentration in the Barents–Kara Sea from late-autumn to early-spring.

Analysis of Planetary Scale Waves Using Idealized Sudden Stratospheric Warming Simulations in Different Dynamical Cores

AbstractPlanetary waves from the troposphere are known to play an important role in sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). To evaluate the representation of large‐scale waves in idealized SSW simulations, three dynamical cores of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model were tested in this study: the Eulerian (EUL) spectral‐transform, finite‐volume (FV), and spectral element (SE) models. Notable differences were observed among the dynamical cores, with FV being unable to generate major SSWs and simulating minor SSWs less effectively than the other models. Wave decomposition analysis revealed distinct planetary wave propagation patterns during the development of each event. Zonal Wave Number 2 wave activities primarily determined SSW types, and ZWN1 led SSWs to recovery during the ensuing periods. However, FV failed to adequately propagate large‐scale waves in minor SSW events, preventing the reversal of stratospheric zonal‐mean zonal winds. Interestingly, FV showed decreased upward Eliassen–Palm flux compared to that of other dynamical cores, even during climatology. Additional tests were performed to examine the reasons for FV's atypical results, but the dynamic impacts on planetary waves remain poorly understood.

Effects of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings on the Sporadic-E layers in the Brazilian sector

Tidal and Planetary Wave (PWs) amplitudes are strongly influenced by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. A nonlinear interaction between the tidal winds and planetary waves during the SSW may contribute to the intensification of sporadic-E (Es) layers in the lower thermosphere. This work investigated the relationship between SSW events in the Northern Hemisphere and the Es layer occurrence at low latitudes in the Brazilian sector. We used data from digital ionosondes installed in the observatories of Araguatins (ARA, 5.65° S; 48.12° W; dip lat. −5.44°) and São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.18° S; 45.89° W; dip lat. −21.37°) to analyze the Es layers. Additionally, we used the temperature, zonal wind, and PWs data at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during the major SSW event that occurred in February/2018 and during the events of Dec/2018–Jan/2019 and Dec/2020–Jan/2021. The results showed a maximum frequency peak of 20 MHz (∼5 × 106 electrons.cm−3) at ARA and SJC during these SSW events. The large values of ftEs, fbEs, and electronic densities were observed between 100 and 115 km height in the Esf/l type layers during daytime or nighttime periods. The results also showed that the number of large values of ftEs, fbEs, and electronic density of the Es layer was much higher in ARA than in SJC, in general. The wavelet power spectrum analyses of the ftEs and fbEs showed a periodicity of 2-days before and after the central day of the SSWs events at the station of ARA, with three prominent peaks in the 2018/2019 event. At the SJC station the quasi-2-day periodicity in the wavelet analyses of the ftEs was observed after the central day in all three SSW events, with a peak before the central day during the 2020/2021 event.

Technical note: Multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane

Abstract. This study makes use of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) methane (CH4) in a search for multi-year changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). Changes in CH4 are determined for three successive 5-year time spans from 1992 to 2005, and there are significant differences between them. There is a clear separation between the changes in the Northern Hemisphere near 30 hPa and at the transition of the shallow and deep branches of the BDC. The CH4 changes are positive and large in the shallow branch following the eruption of Pinatubo, but they then decrease and agree with tropospheric trends in the late 1990s and early 2000s. CH4 decreases in the upper part of the deep branch from 1992 to 1997 or following the eruption of Pinatubo. CH4 continues to decrease in the deep branch in the late 1990s but then increases in the early 2000s, although those changes are small compared with the seasonal and interannual variations of CH4. Multi-year changes are due, in part, to wave forcings during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of 1997–1998 and beyond and to episodic, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events during both time spans. It is concluded that time series of HALOE CH4 provide effective tracer diagnostics for studies of the nature of the BDC from 1992 to 2005.

The Impact of the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability on the Dynamical Processes and Ozone Layer in the Arctic Atmosphere

Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability, mainly driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences the atmospheric circulation and hence the transport of heat and chemical species in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This paper uses Met Office, ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis data to examine the impact of SST variability on the dynamics of the polar stratosphere and ozone layer over the period from 1980 to 2020. Particular attention is paid to studying the differences in the influence of different types of ENSO (East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)) for the El Niño and La Niña phases. It is shown that during the CP El Niño, the zonal wind weakens more strongly and changes direction more often than during the EP El Niño, and the CP El Niño leads to a more rapid decay of the polar vortex (PV), an increase in stratospheric air temperature and an increase in the concentration and total column ozone than during EP El Niño. For the CP La Niña, the PV is more stable, which often leads to a significant decrease in Arctic ozone. During EP La Niña, powerful sudden stratospheric warming events are often observed, which lead to the destruction of PV and an increase in column ozone.

Mid-latitude ionospheric disturbances during the major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event of 2018 observed by sub-ionospheric VLF/LF signals

Mid-latitude ionospheric disturbances during the major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event of 2018 observed by sub-ionospheric VLF/LF signals

Impact of sudden stratospheric warming on middle atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere: A comparative study

A comparative study on the impact of rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) on the middle atmospheric circulation is investigated using a global reanalysis dataset. Since the SH SSW generally occur around spring equinox marking the seasonal transition, so an attempt has been made to isolate the seasonal transition effect from the actual data by carrying out deseasoning to delineate the effects mainly due to the warming. The deseasoned winds are able to extract relatively weak dynamical signatures of SSW at lower altitudes in terms of prominent zonal mean easterly forcing around the peak warming day (PWD) which are not evident from the actual winds. The influence of 2002 SSW seems to reach the troposphere in terms of easterly deseasoned forcing, which is not the case in 2019. Also the deseasoned winds in the stratosphere reveals earlier occurrence of easterly forcing in the extratropical latitudes, which progresses poleward around the PWD indicating a possible tropical precursor to the SH SSW. In general, the actual upper mesospheric wind is dominated by seasonal transition but the deseasoned winds reveal easterly and southerly forcing due to the SSW. Interestingly, the horizontal flow is found to be very different or even opposite in direction at different longitudes indicating uneven longitudinal response of the atmosphere to the warming events across the globe. Overall, the present study provides a detailed and comparative overview of the middle atmospheric circulation in terms of zonal mean flow and concomitant zonal variability during two rare major and minor SSW events in the SH.

A Data-Driven Study of the Drivers of Stratospheric Circulation via Reduced Order Modeling and Data Assimilation

Stratospheric dynamics are strongly affected by the absorption/emission of radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere and Rossby waves that propagate upward from the troposphere, perturbing the zonal flow. Reduced order models of stratospheric wave–zonal interactions, which parameterize these effects, have been used to study interannual variability in stratospheric zonal winds and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. These models are most sensitive to two main parameters: Λ, forcing the mean radiative zonal wind gradient, and h, a perturbation parameter representing the effect of Rossby waves. We take one such reduced order model with 20 years of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data and estimate Λ and h using both a particle filter and an ensemble smoother to investigate if the highly-simplified model can accurately reproduce the averaged reanalysis data and which parameter properties may be required to do so. We find that by allowing additional complexity via an unparameterized Λ(t), the model output can closely match the reanalysis data while maintaining behavior consistent with the dynamical properties of the reduced-order model. Furthermore, our analysis shows physical signatures in the parameter estimates around known SSW events. This work provides a data-driven examination of these important parameters representing fundamental stratospheric processes through the lens and tractability of a reduced order model, shown to be physically representative of the relevant atmospheric dynamics.