Stratospheric Dynamics Research Articles

The Pico Balloon Archive: Establishing the First Super-Pressure Balloon Satellite Network for Atmospheric Research

Abstract We present the Pico Balloon Archive (PBA), a specialized platform for archiving, visualizing, and verifying data from pico balloons—lightweight, super-pressure balloons capable of operating in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere for durations ranging from weeks to years. With a latitudinal range from 88.77°S to 89.60°N and data collection ongoing since 2021, the PBA stands as the most spatially extensive repository for super-pressure balloons to date. It offers a centralized, user-friendly online portal (http://picoballoonarchive.org) for data access, featuring a summary of flight details, downloadable raw data, and individual flight visualizations. In this study, we validate the PBA’s wind speed and direction calculations against the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA), showing strong correlations (r2 = 0.66 and 0.78 for wind speed and direction, respectively). We also highlight the PBA’s effectiveness in charting global atmospheric circulation and the capacity of certain balloons to traverse hemispheres, a feat made possible by unique stratospheric dynamics. Furthermore, we demonstrate the PBA’s effectiveness in validating numerical weather prediction (NWP) Lagrangian trajectories, quantifying errors based on model initialization latitude. This continuously updated super-pressure balloon network is poised to significantly aid the atmospheric science community, facilitating a deeper understanding of global atmospheric processes. Significance Statement The first ever super-pressure balloon network is discussed and validated using radiosondes and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The Pico Balloon Archive (PBA) is positioned to offer worldwide data, facilitating cost-effective and high-reward atmospheric research for numerous users.

Microphysical Interactions Determine the Effectiveness of Solar Radiation Modification via Stratospheric Solid Particle Injection

AbstractRecent studies have suggested that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) of solid particles for climate intervention could reduce stratospheric warming compared to injection of . However, interactions of microphysical processes, such as settling and coagulation of solid particles, with stratospheric dynamics have not been considered. Using a global chemistry‐climate model with interactive solid particle microphysics, we show that agglomeration significantly reduces the backscatter efficiency per unit of injected material compared to mono‐disperse particles, partly due to faster settling of the agglomerates, but mainly due to increased forward‐ over backscattering with increasing agglomerate size. Despite these effects, some materials substantially reduce required injection rates as well as perturbation of stratospheric winds, age of air and stratospheric warming compared to injection of , with the most promising results being shown by 150 nm diamond particles. Uncertainties remain as to whether stratospheric dispersion of solid particles is feasible without formation of agglomerates.

Quasi-10-day waves in temperature and polar mesospheric clouds: Results of AIM/SOFIE and Aura/MLS observations

Planetary waves, including quasi-2, -5, -10, −16-day waves, play significant roles in stratospheric dynamics. However, the existing knowledge on quasi-10-day waves (Q10DWs) at high latitudes is limited. This paper investigated the interannual and seasonal variations of Q10DWs with zonal wave numbers varying from the −3 (westward propagation) to 3 (eastward propagation) modes from 2008 to 2022, using temperature data measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument (316−0.001 hPa, corresponding to an altitude of approximately 8–97 km) and temperature/ice water content data measured by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument (10−100 km at latitudes >55°). The findings revealed that the amplitude of Q10DWs in winter was higher than that in other seasons. The amplitude of Q10DWs was observed to substantially decrease with an increase in wavenumber. In addition, the amplitude of stationary Q10DWs in the northern polar region exceeded that in the southern polar region. Moreover, we used observational data from the SOFIE instrument, which simultaneously measures temperature and ice water content (IWC) in the mesosphere, to examine the variations of Q10DWs with respect to the temperature and IWC. Our findings suggest that in the northern polar region, the maximum value of Q10DWs in IWC was occasionally observed earlier than the lowest value of Q10DWs in temperatures.

Estimating stratospheric polar vortex strength using ambient ocean‐generated infrasound and stochastics‐based machine learning

AbstractThere are sparse opportunities for direct measurement of upper stratospheric winds, yet improving their representation in subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction models can have significant benefits. There is solid evidence from previous research that global atmospheric infrasound waves are sensitive to stratospheric dynamics. However, there is a lack of results providing a direct mapping between infrasound recordings and polar‐cap upper stratospheric winds. The global International Monitoring System (IMS), which monitors compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty, includes ground‐based stations that can be used to characterize the infrasound soundscape continuously. In this study, multi‐station IMS infrasound data were utilized along with a machine‐learning supported stochastic model, Delay‐SDE‐net, to demonstrate how a near‐real‐time estimate of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind at 1‐hPa pressure level can be found from infrasound data. The infrasound was filtered to a temporal low‐frequency regime dominated by microbaroms, which are ambient‐noise infrasonic waves continuously radiated into the atmosphere from nonlinear interaction between counter‐propagating ocean surface waves. Delay‐SDE‐net was trained on 5 years (2014–2018) of infrasound data from three stations and the ERA5 reanalysis 1‐hPa polar‐cap averaged zonal wind. Using infrasound in 2019–2020 for validation, we demonstrate a prediction of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind, with an error standard deviation of around 12 m·s compared with ERA5. These findings highlight the potential of using infrasound data for near‐real‐time measurements of upper stratospheric dynamics. A long‐term goal is to improve high‐top atmospheric model accuracy, which can have significant implications for weather and climate prediction.

Changes in Stratospheric Dynamics Simulated by the EC‐Earth Model From CMIP5 to CMIP6

AbstractThe simulated stratospheric dynamics have been improved compared to previous generations in many climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This was achieved by going from low to high‐top configurations, that is, increasing the atmospheric vertical resolution, raising the model lid height and including parameterization schemes, such as non‐orographic gravity wave drag (GWD), to simulate small‐scale processes. This also applies to the EC‐Earth model, for which comprehensive analysis is now possible thanks to outputs archived within the Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP). Here we analyze atmosphere‐only simulations and evaluate the stratospheric dynamics of low‐top CMIP5 and high‐top CMIP6 configurations of EC‐Earth against the MERRA‐2 and ERA5 reanalyses. This allows us to identify and interpret model biases in the atmospheric component and to highlight deficiencies needed to be addressed in future model versions. We find substantial improvements in the simulation of the stratosphere in the CMIP6 configuration, both in the tropical and extratropical regions. The zonal wind momentum budget in the tropical stratosphere is much improved in the high‐top configuration. Seasonal variability of both models is qualitatively similar to the reanalysis, but for the low‐top model this is likely due to compensating errors, as its intraseasonal variability is less realistic. The non‐orographic GWD forcing is weak in the high‐top model and this limits the realism of the tropical stratosphere variability. We point to persisting issues in the stratosphere of EC‐Earth that should be tackled to improve hemispheric‐scale circulation and variability.

A Data-Driven Study of the Drivers of Stratospheric Circulation via Reduced Order Modeling and Data Assimilation

Stratospheric dynamics are strongly affected by the absorption/emission of radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere and Rossby waves that propagate upward from the troposphere, perturbing the zonal flow. Reduced order models of stratospheric wave–zonal interactions, which parameterize these effects, have been used to study interannual variability in stratospheric zonal winds and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. These models are most sensitive to two main parameters: Λ, forcing the mean radiative zonal wind gradient, and h, a perturbation parameter representing the effect of Rossby waves. We take one such reduced order model with 20 years of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data and estimate Λ and h using both a particle filter and an ensemble smoother to investigate if the highly-simplified model can accurately reproduce the averaged reanalysis data and which parameter properties may be required to do so. We find that by allowing additional complexity via an unparameterized Λ(t), the model output can closely match the reanalysis data while maintaining behavior consistent with the dynamical properties of the reduced-order model. Furthermore, our analysis shows physical signatures in the parameter estimates around known SSW events. This work provides a data-driven examination of these important parameters representing fundamental stratospheric processes through the lens and tractability of a reduced order model, shown to be physically representative of the relevant atmospheric dynamics.

Parameterized orographic gravity wave drag and dynamical effects in CMIP6 models

Orographic gravity waves (OGWs) are an important mechanism for coupling of the free atmosphere with the surface, mediating the momentum and energy transport and influencing the dynamics and circulation especially in the middle-atmosphere. Current global climate models are not able to resolve a large part of the OGW spectrum and hence, OGW effects have to be parameterized in the models. Typically, the only parameterized effect is the OGW induced drag. Despite producing the same quantity as an output and relying on similar assumptions (e.g. instantaneous vertical propagation), the individual OGW parameterization schemes differ in many aspects such as handling of the orography, the inclusion of non-linear effects near the surface and the tuning of the emergent free parameters. In this study, we have reviewed 7 different parameterizations, which are used in 9 different CMIP6 models. We report pronounced differences in the vertical distribution and magnitude of the parameterized OGW drag between the models and study to what extent the inter-model differences can be traced back to the difference in the type and tuning of the schemes. Finally, we demonstrate how the OGW drag differences project to the intermodel differences in the stratospheric dynamics. The study can pave the way for a more systematic research of the OGW parameterizations in the future, with an ultimate goal of lowering the amount of uncertainty of the future climate projections connected with the parameterized effects of unresolved orography.

The influence of future changes in springtime Arctic ozone on stratospheric and surface climate

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While long-term changes in stratospheric ozone have been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (the SOlar Climate Ozone Links – Max Planck Ocean Model (SOCOL-MPIOM) and the Community Earth System Model – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM)) to assess the climatic impacts of future changes in Arctic ozone on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, the increase in Arctic ozone in this scenario warms the lower Arctic stratosphere; reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown; and weakens the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The ozone-induced changes in springtime generally oppose the effects of GHGs on the polar vortex. In the troposphere, future changes in Arctic ozone induce a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the North Atlantic. These impacts of future ozone changes on NH surface climate are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, canceling out a portion of the GHG effects (up to 20 % over the Arctic). In the stratosphere, Arctic ozone changes cancel out a much larger fraction of the GHG-induced signal (up to 50 %–100 %), resulting in no overall change in the projected springtime stratospheric northern annular mode and a reduction in the GHG-induced delay of vortex breakdown of around 15 d. Taken together, our results indicate that future changes in Arctic ozone actively shape the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as a driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change.

Influence of Asian Topography on the Arctic Stratospheric Ozone

AbstractEvaluating the impact of topography on stratospheric ozone is a crucial step toward achieving a deeper comprehension of the role of topography uplift in driving paleoclimatic evolution and stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. This paper quantitatively estimates the contribution of Asian topography to Arctic stratospheric ozone by topography experiments in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6. The results indicate that Asian topography exerts an especially robust influence on Arctic stratospheric ozone during winter. Compared to the flattened topography, Asian topography significantly increases the ozone by 15% in the lower Arctic stratosphere, accompanied by the highest accumulation of total ozone appearing in the polar region north to the North American continent. The intensified residual mean circulation transport is principally responsible for the increase in ozone, and Asian topography has a stronger impact on the vertical residual mean transport than on the meridional residual mean transport. Further examination demonstrates that the robust strengthening of planetary waves caused by Asian topography significantly contributes to the enhancement of the residual mean circulation. Specifically, the upper Arctic stratosphere experiences a 42.7% increase in the amplitude of planetary waves with wavenumber 1, which means the weakened polar vortex. The diagnosis of the mean Lorenz energy cycle further indicates that Asian topography decreases the zonal mean kinetic energy and increases the eddy kinetic energy in the stratosphere. Therefore, the enhancement of residual mean circulation transport and the weakening of the polar vortex both work together to promote the accumulation of Arctic ozone.

Doppler wind measurements in Neptune’s stratosphere with ALMA

Context. Neptune’s tropospheric winds are among the most intense in the Solar System, but the dynamical mechanisms that produce them are still unclear. Measuring wind speeds at different pressure levels may help shed light on the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. Aims. The goal of this work is to directly measure winds in Neptune’s stratosphere with ALMA Doppler spectroscopy. Methods. We derived the Doppler lineshift maps of Neptune at the CO(3-2) and HCN(4-3) lines at 345.8 GHz (λ ∼ 0.87 mm) and 354.5 GHz (0.85 mm), respectively. For that purpose, we used spectra obtained with ALMA in 2016 and recorded with a spatial resolution of ∼0.37″ on Neptune’s 2.24″ disk. After subtracting the planet’s solid rotation, we inferred the contribution of zonal winds to the measured Doppler lineshifts at the CO and HCN lines. We developed an MCMC-based retrieval methodology to constrain the latitudinal distribution of wind speeds. Results. We find that CO(3-2) and HCN(4-3) lines probe the stratosphere of Neptune at pressures of 2−1.8+12 mbar and 0.4−0.3+0.5 mbar, respectively. The zonal winds at these altitudes are less intense than the tropospheric winds based on cloud tracking from Voyager observations. We find equatorial retrograde (westward) winds of −180−60+70 m s−1 for CO, and −190−70+90 m s−1 for HCN. Wind intensity decreases towards mid-latitudes and wind speeds at 40°S are −90−60+50 m s−1 for CO and −40−80+60 m s−1 for HCN. Wind speeds become 0 m s−1 at about 50°S. We find that the circulation reverses to a prograde jet southwards of 60°S. Overall, our direct stratospheric wind measurements match previous estimates from stellar occultation profiles and expectations based on thermal wind equilibrium. Conclusions. These are the first direct Doppler wind measurements performed on the Icy Giants, opening up a new method for the study and monitoring of their stratospheric dynamics.

ВОСПРОИЗВЕДЕНИЕ ПРОЦЕССОВ В СТРАТОСФЕРЕ МОДЕЛЬЮ ОБЩЕЙ ЦИРКУЛЯЦИИ АТМОСФЕРЫ ПЛАВ072L96

Dynamics of the stratosphere and ozone layer are among important sources of atmospheric circulation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. The simulation of the stratospheric dynamics with the SL-AV atmospheric general circulation model for the SLAV072L96 seasonal weather prediction configuration is analyzed. The configuration is currently under preoperational testing at the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The model simulates both winter and summer averaged distributions of zonal wind and temperature close to the reanalysis data. The quasi-biennial oscillation of equatorial zonal wind is simulated with a realistic period and amplitude. There is a significant reduction of errors as compared with the previous stratosphere-resolving SL-AV model configuration. It is shown that the stratospheric process simulation enhancement is largely due to the reduction of systematic errors in the simulation of troposphere dynamics. The work on the inclusion of the CHARM photochemical model in the SL-AV model is described. The results of first experiments with the coupled model are given.

Early Evolution of the Stratospheric Aerosol Plume Following the 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Eruption: Lidar Observations From Reunion (21°S, 55°E)

AbstractThe exceptionally violent eruption of the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai volcano (HTHH) of 15 January 2022, in the South Pacific, was associated with a powerful blast that injected gases, steam and aerosol to unprecedentedly high altitudes. This article details unique observations of the young volcanic plume from ground‐based lidars at Reunion (21°S, 55°E). Two lidars, operating at wavelengths of 355 and 532 nm, recorded the plume overhead from 19 January until 28 January providing the vertical structure and the optical properties of the plume. A series of thick stratospheric plumes between 36 and 18 km altitude have been characterized along time, with aerosol optical depth as high as 0.84 at 532 nm and negative Angström exponents for the main layers down to −0.8 ± 0.8. The diversity of plumes properties is explained by the injection heights of the volcanic material as well as stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

ENSO and PDO Effect on Stratospheric Dynamics in Isca Numerical Experiments

The deterministic forecast of the stratospheric polar vortex intensity (iSPV) is limited by 2 weeks, but it can be probabilistically predicted for a longer period due to low-frequency components of the climate system, such as large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). For a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the effect of the large-scale Pacific SSTAs on the iSPV anomalies formation, idealized model experiments were carried out using the Isca platform. There is no statistically significant response of the SPV dynamics to the SSTAs corresponding to PDO phases, but they noticeably correct the effect of ENSO modes when added to it. The effect of the El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) events with neutral PDO phases on the iSPV is asymmetric; in the “single” EN experiment the vortex is 40% weaker relative to the control values, and, in the “single” LN, the SPV is weakened by no more than 20%. When EN accompanied with the positive PDO phase, iSPV is reduced by 58%. When the negative PDO phase is added, the EN effect is significantly weakened. The LN effect is weakened by both positive and negative PDO phases.

Unexpected long-term variability in Jupiter’s tropospheric temperatures

An essential component of planetary climatology is knowledge of the tropospheric temperature field and its variability. Previous studies of Jupiter hinted at periodic behavior that was non-seasonal, as well as dynamical relationships between tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures. However, these observations were made over time frames shorter than Jupiter's orbit or they used sparse sampling. We derived upper-tropospheric (300-mbar) temperatures over 40 years, extending those studies to cover several orbits of Jupiter, revealing unexpected results. Periodicities of 4, 7 8-9 and 10-14 years were discovered that involved different latitude bands and seem disconnected from seasonal changes in solar heating. Anti-correlations of variability in opposite hemispheres were particularly striking at 16, 22 and 30 degrees from the equator. Equatorial temperature variations are also anticorrelated with those 60-70 km above. Such behavior suggests a top-down control of equatorial tropospheric temperatures from stratospheric dynamics. Realistic future global climate models must address the origins of these variations in preparation for their extension to a wider array of gas-giant exoplanets.

Small Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Chemistry on the Surface Temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum in CESM2(WACCM6ma)

AbstractStratospheric dynamics and chemistry can impact the tropospheric climate through changing radiatively active atmospheric constituents and stratosphere‐troposphere interactions. The impact of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry on the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate is not well‐studied and remains an uncertain aspect of glacial‐interglacial climate change. Here we perform coupled LGM simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), with a high‐top atmosphere—the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 with a middle atmosphere chemistry mechanism (WACCM6ma). The CESM2(WACCM6ma) LGM simulations show a weaker stratospheric circulation than the preindustrial, 10%–35% less tropospheric ozone and 10%–50% more ozone in the lower stratosphere. These dynamical and chemical changes cause slightly more cooling (<5%) in LGM surface and tropospheric temperatures than parallel simulations using a low‐top atmosphere without active chemistry. Results from our model suggest that stratospheric dynamics and chemistry may have little direct effect on the glacial‐interglacial climate change.

First absolute wind measurements in Saturn’s stratosphere from ALMA observations

Context. Past observations of Saturn with ground-based and space telescopes have enabled the monitoring of tropospheric wind speeds using cloud-tracking techniques. The most remarkable feature is a broad and fast prograde jet at the equator that reaches speeds of ~400 m s−1. Saturn’s stratospheric dynamics are less well-known. At low latitudes, they are characterized by the thermal signature of an equatorial oscillation; the observed thermal structure implies that there is a strong oscillating vertical shear of the zonal winds throughout the stratosphere. However, wind speeds in this region cannot be measured by cloud-tracking techniques and remain unknown. Aims. The objective of this study is to measure directly and for the first time the zonal winds in Saturn’s stratosphere using the ALMA interferometer. Methods. We observed the spectral lines of CO at 345.796 GHz and HCN at 354.505 GHz with the high spatial (~0.6″ × 0.5″) and spectral resolutions enabled by ALMA, and measured the Doppler shift induced by the winds on the lines at the planet limb where the emission is the strongest. After subtracting the beam-convolved planet rotation, we derived the zonal wind speeds as a function of latitude. Results. We measured the zonal winds from ~20°S to the northern polar latitudes. Latitudes between 20°S and 45°S were obscured by the rings and were inaccessible southward of 45°S. The zonal wind profiles obtained on the eastern and western limbs are consistent within the error bars and probe from the 0.01 to the 20 mbar level. We most noticeably detect a broad super-rotating prograde jet that spreads from 20°S to 25°N with an average speed of 290 ± 30 m s−1. This jet is asymmetrical with respect to the equator, a possible seasonal effect. We tentatively detect the signature of the Saturn semi-annual oscillation (SSAO) at the equator, in the form of a ~−50 ± 30 m s−1 peak at the equator which lies on top of the super-rotating jet. We also detect a broad retrograde wind (−45 ± 20 m s−1) of about 50 m s−1 in the mid-northern latitudes. Finally, in the northern polar latitudes, we observe a possible auroral effect in the form of a ~200 m s−1 jet localized on the average position of the northern main auroral oval and in couter-rotation, like the Jovian auroral jets. Conclusions. Repeated observations are now required to monitor the temporal evolution of the winds and quantify the variability of the SSAO jet, to test the seasonality of the asymmetry observed in the broad super-rotating jet, and to verify the presence of auroral jets in the southern polar region of Saturn.

Influence of observed seasonally varying composition on Titan’s stratospheric circulation

Titan’s atmosphere exhibits variations in composition as it progresses through its seasons. Past observations have shown a substantial enrichment in short-lived molecules in the winter stratosphere above 100 km. Seasonal variations in Titan’s stratospheric dynamics also lead to a transient detached haze layer (DHL) above 400 km. The seasonal variations in aerosol opacity and molecular abundance lead to varying radiative heating rates in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions. In this paper, we report on the effects of a new dataset for aerosol opacity and trace gas abundance derived from Cassini observations on simulations of Titan’s stratospheric dynamics with the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM). We find that including seasonally varying radiative species (SVRS) decreases the autumn and winter polar stratopause temperature by up to 10 K poleward of 60°. We also find a similar increased seasonality in the zonal winds with the early autumn polar jet strengthening by 60 m s−1, while the mid winter jet is unaffected. While including the observationally derived SVRS dataset increases the strength of the seasonal variations of the polar jet, it does not substantially affect the timing of the onset or dissipation of the jet or other seasonal phenomena.

Reckoning with the Rocky Relationship Between Eruption Size and Climate Response: Toward a Volcano-Climate Index

Volcanic eruptions impact climate, subtly and profoundly. The size of an eruption is only loosely correlated with the severity of its climate effects, which can include changes in surface temperature, ozone levels, stratospheric dynamics, precipitation, and ocean circulation. We review the processes—in magma chambers, eruption columns, and the oceans, biosphere, and atmosphere—that mediate the climate response to an eruption. A complex relationship between eruption size, style, duration, and the subsequent severity of the climate response emerges. We advocate for a new, consistent metric, the Volcano-Climate Index, to categorize climate response to eruptions independent of eruption properties and spanning the full range of volcanic activity, from brief explosive eruptions to long-lasting flood basalts. A consistent metric for categorizing the climate response to eruptions that differ in size, style, and duration is critical for establishing the relationshipbetween the severity and the frequency of such responses aiding hazard assessments, and furthering understanding of volcanic impacts on climate on timescales of years to millions of years. ▪ We review the processes driving the rocky relationship between eruption size and climate response and propose a Volcano-Climate Index. ▪ Volcanic eruptions perturb Earth's climate on a range of timescales, with key open questions regarding how processes in the magmatic system, eruption column, and atmosphere shape the climate response to volcanism. ▪ A Volcano-Climate Index will provide information on the volcano-climate severity-frequency distribution, analogous to earthquake hazards. ▪ Understanding of the frequency of specific levels of volcanic climate effects will aid hazard assessments, planning, and mitigation of societal impacts.

Analyzing ozone variations and uncertainties at high latitudes during sudden stratospheric warming events using MERRA-2

Abstract. Stratospheric circulation is a critical part of the Arctic ozone cycle. Sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) manifest the strongest alteration of stratospheric dynamics. During SSWs, changes in planetary wave propagation vigorously influence zonal mean zonal wind, temperature, and tracer concentrations in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. In this study, we examine six persistent major SSWs from 2004 to 2020 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Using the unique density of observations around the Greenland sector at high latitudes, we perform comprehensive comparisons of high-latitude observations with the MERRA-2 ozone dataset during the six major SSWs. Our results show that MERRA-2 captures the high variability of mid-stratospheric ozone fluctuations during SSWs over high latitudes. However, larger uncertainties are observed in the lower stratosphere and troposphere. The zonally averaged stratospheric ozone shows a dramatic increase of 9 %–29 % in total column ozone (TCO) near the time of each SSW, which lasts up to 2 months. This study shows that the average shape of the Arctic polar vortex before SSWs influences the geographical extent, timing, and magnitude of ozone changes. The SSWs exhibit a more significant impact on ozone over high northern latitudes when the average polar vortex is mostly elongated as seen in 2009 and 2018 compared to the events in which the polar vortex is displaced towards Europe. Strong correlation (R2=90 %) is observed between the magnitude of change in average equivalent potential vorticity before and after SSWs and the associated averaged total column ozone changes over high latitudes. This paper investigates the different terms of the ozone continuity equation using MERRA-2 circulation, which emphasizes the key role of vertical advection in mid-stratospheric ozone during the SSWs and the magnified vertical advection in elongated vortex shape as seen in 2009 and 2018.

A single-peak-structured solar cycle signal in stratospheric ozone based on Microwave Limb Sounder observations and model simulations

Abstract. Until now our understanding of the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone has been largely based on high-quality but sparse ozone profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II or coarsely resolved ozone profiles from the nadir-viewing Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite instruments. Here, we analyse 16 years (2005–2020) of ozone profile measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to estimate the 11-year SCS in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis of Aura-MLS data suggests a single-peak-structured SCS profile (about 3 % near 4 hPa or 40 km) in tropical stratospheric ozone, which is significantly different to the SAGE II and SBUV-based double-peak-structured SCS. We also find that MLS-observed ozone variations are more consistent with ozone from our control model simulation that uses Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) v2 solar fluxes. However, in the lowermost stratosphere modelled ozone shows a negligible SCS compared to about 1 % in Aura-MLS data. An ensemble of ordinary least squares (OLS) and three regularised (lasso, ridge and elastic net) linear regression models confirms the robustness of the estimated SCS. In addition, our analysis of MLS and model simulations shows a large SCS in the Antarctic lower stratosphere that was not seen in earlier studies. We also analyse chemical transport model simulations with alternative solar flux data. We find that in the upper (and middle) stratosphere the model simulation with Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite solar fluxes is also consistent with the MLS-derived SCS and agrees well with the control simulation and one which uses Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstructions (SATIRE) solar fluxes. Hence, our model simulation suggests that with recent adjustments and corrections, SORCE data can be used to analyse effects of solar flux variations. Furthermore, analysis of a simulation with fixed solar fluxes and one with fixed (annually repeating) meteorology confirms that the implicit dynamical SCS in the (re)analysis data used to force the model is not enough to simulate the observed SCS in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone. Finally, we argue that the overall significantly different SCS compared to previous estimates might be due to a combination of different factors such as much denser MLS measurements, almost linear stratospheric chlorine loading changes over the analysis period, variations in the stratospheric dynamics as well as relatively unperturbed stratospheric aerosol layer that might have influenced earlier analyses.