Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Research Articles

Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11 500 years) from a bipolar ice-core array

Abstract. The injection of sulfur into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions is the dominant driver of natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Based on a set of continuous sulfate and sulfur records from a suite of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the HolVol v.1.0 database includes estimates of the magnitudes and approximate source latitudes of major volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) events for the Holocene (from 9500 BCE or 11 500 years BP to 1900 CE), constituting an extension of the previous record by 7000 years. The database incorporates new-generation ice-core aerosol records with a sub-annual temporal resolution and a demonstrated sub-decadal dating accuracy and precision. By tightly aligning and stacking the ice-core records on the WD2014 chronology from Antarctica, we resolve long-standing inconsistencies in the dating of ancient volcanic eruptions that arise from biased (i.e., dated too old) ice-core chronologies over the Holocene for Greenland. We reconstruct a total of 850 volcanic eruptions with injections in excess of 1 teragram of sulfur (Tg S); of these eruptions, 329 (39 %) are located in the low latitudes with bipolar sulfate deposition, 426 (50 %) are located in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NHET) and 88 (10 %) are located in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics (SHET). The spatial distribution of the reconstructed eruption locations is in agreement with prior reconstructions for the past 2500 years. In total, these eruptions injected 7410 Tg S into the stratosphere: 70 % from tropical eruptions and 25 % from NH extratropical eruptions. A long-term latitudinally and monthly resolved stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) time series is reconstructed from the HolVol VSSI estimates, representing the first Holocene-scale reconstruction constrained by Greenland and Antarctica ice cores. These new long-term reconstructions of past VSSI and SAOD variability confirm evidence from regional volcanic eruption chronologies (e.g., from Iceland) in showing that the Early Holocene (9500–7000 BCE) experienced a higher number of volcanic eruptions (+16 %) and cumulative VSSI (+86 %) compared with the past 2500 years. This increase coincides with the rapid retreat of ice sheets during deglaciation, providing context for potential future increases in volcanic activity in regions under projected glacier melting in the 21st century. The reconstructed VSSI and SAOD data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928646 (Sigl et al., 2021).

An approach to sulfate geoengineering with surface emissions of carbonyl sulfide

Abstract. Sulfate geoengineering (SG) methods based on lower stratospheric tropical injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) have been widely discussed in recent years, focusing on the direct and indirect effects they would have on the climate system. Here a potential alternative method is discussed, where sulfur emissions are located at the surface or in the troposphere in the form of carbonyl sulfide (COS) gas. There are two time-dependent chemistry–climate model experiments designed from the years 2021 to 2055, assuming a 40 Tg-Syr-1 artificial global flux of COS, which is geographically distributed following the present-day anthropogenic COS surface emissions (SG-COS-SRF) or a 6 Tg-Syr-1 injection of COS in the tropical upper troposphere (SG-COS-TTL). The budget of COS and sulfur species is discussed, as are the effects of both SG-COS strategies on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth (∼Δτ=0.080 in the years 2046–2055), aerosol effective radius (0.46 µm), surface SOx deposition (+8.9 % for SG-COS-SRF; +3.3 % for SG-COS-TTL), and tropopause radiative forcing (RF; ∼-1.5 W m−2 in all-sky conditions in both SG-COS experiments). Indirect effects on ozone, methane and stratospheric water vapour are also considered, along with the COS direct contribution. According to our model results, the resulting net RF is −1.3 W m−2, for SG-COS-SRF, and −1.5 W m−2, for SG-COS-TTL, and it is comparable to the corresponding RF of −1.7 W m−2 obtained with a sustained injection of 4 Tg-Syr-1 in the tropical lower stratosphere in the form of SO2 (SG-SO2, which is able to produce a comparable increase of the sulfate aerosol optical depth). Significant changes in the stratospheric ozone response are found in both SG-COS experiments with respect to SG-SO2 (∼5 DU versus +1.4 DU globally). According to the model results, the resulting ultraviolet B (UVB) perturbation at the surface accounts for −4.3 % as a global and annual average (versus −2.4 % in the SG-SO2 case), with a springtime Antarctic decrease of −2.7 % (versus a +5.8 % increase in the SG-SO2 experiment). Overall, we find that an increase in COS emissions may be feasible and produce a more latitudinally uniform forcing without the need for the deployment of stratospheric aircraft. However, our assumption that the rate of COS uptake by soils and plants does not vary with increasing COS concentrations will need to be investigated in future work, and more studies are needed on the prolonged exposure effects to higher COS values in humans and ecosystems.

Influences of aerosols and thin cirrus clouds on GOSAT XCO2 and XCH4 using Total Carbon Column Observing Network, sky radiometer, and lidar data

ABSTRACT The column-averaged, dry air mole fractions of CO2 and CH4 (XCO2 and XCH4, respectively) were retrieved from short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) spectra observed by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Continuous measurements of SWIR spectra have been made via GOSAT since 2009, but there has been insufficient investigation of the effects of cirrus clouds and aerosols on the observations. In this work, we investigated the influences of aerosols and cirrus clouds on the differences between GOSAT observations and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) data for XCO2 and XCH4 (ΔXCO2 and ΔXCH4) at three sites: Tsukuba and Saga in Japan, and Lauder in New Zealand. We used aerosol optical thickness (AOT), Angstrom exponents (AEs), and single scattering albedo (SSA), all obtained from sky radiometer observations, as well as vertical profiles of aerosols and thin cirrus clouds from lidar observations. Matchups were performed within ±0.1° latitude/longitude rectangular areas of each TCCON site, and within 30 min of the GOSAT overpass time. The results show a negative slope between ΔXCO2 and AOT at 500 nm determined from sky radiometer data at Tsukuba and Saga. The GOSAT XCO2 values tended to be lowered in the presence of cirrus clouds and dense boundary-layer aerosols. Moreover, a significant negative ΔXCO2 was observed at times of large AOTs that resulted from dust-like events. At Lauder, ΔXCO2 was negatively correlated with the AOT at 500 nm, although the AOT at this site was generally small. The mean ± standard deviation for ΔXCO2 and ΔXCH4 at Lauder are −0.80 ± 1.83 (ppm) and −5.27 ± 10.79 (ppb) with correlation coefficients r between GOSAT and TCCON of 0.94 and 0.83, respectively. Both ΔXCO2 and ΔXCH4 were significantly and negatively correlated with the AOT during Sep-Oct-Nov. In addition, stratospheric aerosols caused large negative biases of ΔXCO2 and ΔXCH4 at Lauder despite the small stratospheric aerosol optical depth at that site.

Variability of the Aerosol Content in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere from 2013 to 2019: Evidence of Volcanic Eruption Impacts

This paper quantifies the tropical stratospheric aerosol content as impacted by volcanic events over the 2013–2019 period. We use global model simulations by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) which is part of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). WACCM is associated with the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) sectional aerosol microphysics model which includes full sulphur chemical and microphysical cycles with no a priori assumption on particle size. Five main volcanic events (Kelud, Calbuco, Ambae, Raikoke and Ulawun) have been reported and are shown to have significantly influenced the stratospheric aerosol layer in the tropics, either through direct injection in this region or through transport from extra-tropical latitudes. Space-borne data as well as ground-based lidar and balloon-borne in situ observations are used to evaluate the model calculations in terms of aerosol content, vertical distribution, optical and microphysical properties, transport and residence time of the various volcanic plumes. Overall, zonal mean model results reproduce the occurrence and vertical extents of the plumes derived from satellite observations but shows some discrepancies for absolute values of extinction and of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD). Features of meridional transport of the plumes emitted from extra-tropical latitudes are captured by the model but simulated absolute values of SAOD differ from 6 to 200% among the various eruptions. Simulations tend to agree well with observed in situ vertical profiles for the Kelud and Calbuco plumes but this is likely to depend on the period for which comparison is done. Some explanations for the model–measurement discrepancies are discussed such as the inaccurate knowledge of the injection parameters and the presence of ash not accounted in the simulations.

Composition Dependence of Stratospheric Aerosol Shortwave Radiative Forcing in Northern Midlatitudes

AbstractBoth observations and recent model results reveal a significant organic component in stratospheric aerosols. However, intrinsic optical properties (i.e., complex refractive index) of this organic component and the mixing state of organic and ubiquitous sulfuric acid components are quite uncertain. We examine the effects of different complex refractive indices and particle mixing states on shortwave radiative forcing (RF) of stratospheric aerosols in northern midlatitudes. In the absence of large volcanic sulfur emissions, our calculations show that organic components may have substantial impacts on stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD). Compared to pure sulfuric acid/water aerosol, organic‐containing aerosols could cause ±100% change in shortwave RF (for low AOD conditions) depending on the refractive index and mixing state. The range found here of shortwave RF results, for different scenarios of organic complex refractive index and mixing state, call for better understandings of chemical and transport processes determining aerosol optical properties in the stratosphere.

Tracking aerosols and SO<sub>2</sub> clouds from the Raikoke eruption: 3D view from satellite observations

Abstract. The 21 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (Kuril Islands, Russia; 48∘ N, 153∘ E) produced significant amounts of volcanic aerosols (sulfate and ash) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas that penetrated into the lower stratosphere. The dispersed SO2 and sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere were still detectable by multiple satellite sensors for many months after the eruption. For this study of SO2 and aerosol clouds we use data obtained from two of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite sensors on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite: total column SO2 from the Nadir Mapper and aerosol extinction profiles from the Limb Profiler as well as other satellite data sets. We evaluated the limb viewing geometry effect (the “arch effect”) in the retrieval of the LP standard aerosol extinction product at 674 nm. It was shown that the amount of SO2 decreases with a characteristic period of 8–18 d and the peak of stratospheric aerosol optical depth recorded at a wavelength of 674 nm lags the initial peak of SO2 mass by 1.5 months. Using satellite observations and a trajectory model, we examined the dynamics of an unusual atmospheric feature that was observed, a stratospheric coherent circular cloud of SO2 and aerosol from 18 July to 22 September 2019.

Recovery of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer, from Lexington, MA, and Fairbanks, AK, January 1964 to July 1965

Abstract. We report the recovery and processing methodology of the first ever multi-year lidar dataset of the stratospheric aerosol layer. A Q-switched ruby lidar measured 66 vertical profiles of 694 nm attenuated backscatter at Lexington, Massachusetts, between January 1964 and August 1965, with an additional nine profile measurements conducted from College, Alaska, during July and August 1964. We describe the processing of the recovered lidar backscattering ratio profiles to produce mid-visible (532 nm) stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles (sAEP532) and stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD532) measurements, utilizing a number of contemporary measurements of several different atmospheric variables. Stratospheric soundings of temperature and pressure generate an accurate local molecular backscattering profile, with nearby ozone soundings determining the ozone absorption, which are used to correct for two-way ozone transmittance. Two-way aerosol transmittance corrections are also applied based on nearby observations of total aerosol optical depth (across the troposphere and stratosphere) from sun photometer measurements. We show that accounting for these two-way transmittance effects substantially increases the magnitude of the 1964/1965 stratospheric aerosol layer's optical thickness in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, then ∼ 50 % larger than represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) volcanic forcing dataset. Compared to the uncorrected dataset, the combined transmittance correction increases the sAOD532 by up to 66 % for Lexington and up to 27 % for Fairbanks, as well as individual sAEP532 adjustments of similar magnitude. Comparisons with the few contemporary measurements available show better agreement with the corrected two-way transmittance values. Within the January 1964 to August 1965 measurement time span, the corrected Lexington sAOD532 time series is substantially above 0.05 in three distinct periods, October 1964, March 1965, and May–June 1965, whereas the 6 nights the lidar measured in December 1964 and January 1965 had sAOD values of at most ∼ 0.03. The comparison with interactive stratospheric aerosol model simulations of the Agung aerosol cloud shows that, although substantial variation in mid-latitude sAOD532 are expected from the seasonal cycle in the stratospheric circulation, the Agung cloud's dispersion from the tropics would have been at its strongest in winter and weakest in summer. The increasing trend in sAOD from January to July 1965, also considering the large variability, suggests that the observed variations are from a different source than Agung, possibly from one or both of the two eruptions that occurred in 1964/1965 with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 3: Trident, Alaska, and Vestmannaeyjar, Heimaey, south of Iceland. A detailed error analysis of the uncertainties in each of the variables involved in the processing chain was conducted. Relative errors for the uncorrected sAEP532 were 54 % for Fairbanks and 44 % Lexington. For the corrected sAEP532 the errors were 61 % and 64 %, respectively. The analysis of the uncertainties identified variables that with additional data recovery and reprocessing could reduce these relative error levels. Data described in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.922105 (Antuña-Marrero et al., 2020a).

Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions.

Measurement Report: Lidar measurements of stratospheric aerosol following the 2019 Raikoke and Ulawun volcanic eruptions

Abstract. At 18:00 UTC on 21 June 2019 the Raikoke volcano in the Kuril islands began a large-magnitude explosive eruption, sending a plume of ash and sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. A Raman lidar system at Capel Dewi Atmospheric Observatory, UK, was deployed to measure the vertical extent and optical depth of the volcanic aerosol cloud following the eruption. The elastic channel at 355 nm allowed measurements up to 25 km, but the Raman channel was only sensitive to the troposphere. Therefore, retrievals of backscatter ratio profiles from the raw backscatter measurements required aerosol-free profiles derived from nearby radiosondes and allowance for aerosol extinction using a lidar ratio of 40–50 sr. Small amounts of aerosol were measured prior to the arrival of the volcanic cloud (27 June–5 July 2019), from pyroconvection over Canada. Model simulations by de Leeuw et al. (2020) and Kloss et al. (2020) show that volcanic ash may have reached Europe from 1 July onwards and was certainly present over the UK after 10 July. The lidar detected a thin layer at an altitude of 14 km late on 3 July, with the first detection of the main aerosol cloud on 13 July. In this initial period the aerosol was confined below 16 km, but eventually the cloud extended to 20.5 km. A sustained period of clearly enhanced stratospheric aerosol optical depths began in early August, with a maximum value (at 355 nm) around 0.05 in mid-August and remaining above 0.02 until early November. Thereafter, optical depths decayed to around 0.01 by the end of 2019 and remained around that level until May 2020. The altitude of peak backscatter varied considerably (between 14 and 18 km) but was generally around 15 km. However, on one notable occasion on 25 August 2019, a layer around 300 m thick with peak lidar backscatter ratio around 1.5 was observed as high as 21 km.

Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble

Abstract. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), several climate modeling centers performed a coordinated pre-study experiment with interactive stratospheric aerosol models simulating the volcanic aerosol cloud from an eruption resembling the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption (VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble). The pre-study provided the ancillary ability to assess intermodel diversity in the radiative forcing for a large stratospheric-injecting equatorial eruption when the volcanic aerosol cloud is simulated interactively. An initial analysis of the VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble showed large disparities between models in the stratospheric global mean aerosol optical depth (AOD). In this study, we now show that stratospheric global mean AOD differences among the participating models are primarily due to differences in aerosol size, which we track here by effective radius. We identify specific physical and chemical processes that are missing in some models and/or parameterized differently between models, which are together causing the differences in effective radius. In particular, our analysis indicates that interactively tracking hydroxyl radical (OH) chemistry following a large volcanic injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important factor in allowing for the timescale for sulfate formation to be properly simulated. In addition, depending on the timescale of sulfate formation, there can be a large difference in effective radius and subsequently AOD that results from whether the SO2 is injected in a single model grid cell near the location of the volcanic eruption, or whether it is injected as a longitudinally averaged band around the Earth.

Stratospheric aerosol layer perturbation caused by the 2019 Raikoke and Ulawun eruptions and their radiative forcing

Abstract. In June 2019 a stratospheric eruption occurred at Raikoke (48∘ N, 153∘ E). Satellite observations show the injection of ash and SO2 into the lower stratosphere and an early entrainment of the plume into a cyclone. Following the Raikoke eruption, stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) values increased in the whole Northern Hemisphere and tropics and remained enhanced for more than 1 year, with peak values at 0.040 (short-wavelength, high northern latitudes) to 0.025 (short-wavelength, Northern Hemisphere average). Discrepancies between observations and global model simulations indicate that ash may have influenced the extent and evolution of the sAOD. Top of the atmosphere radiative forcings are estimated at values between −0.3 and -0.4Wm-2 (clear-sky) and of −0.1 to -0.2Wm-2 (all-sky), comparable to what was estimated for the Sarychev eruption in 2009. Almost simultaneously two significantly smaller stratospheric eruptions occurred at Ulawun (5∘ S, 151∘ E) in June and August. Aerosol enhancements from the Ulawun eruptions mainly had an impact on the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The Ulawun plume circled the Earth within 1 month in the tropics. Peak shorter-wavelength sAOD values at 0.01 are found in the tropics following the Ulawun eruptions and a radiative forcing not exceeding −0.15 (clear-sky) and −0.05 (all-sky). Compared to the Canadian fires (2017), Ambae eruption (2018), Ulawun (2019) and the Australian fires (2019/2020), the highest sAOD and radiative forcing values are found for the Raikoke eruption.

Large Variations in Volcanic Aerosol Forcing Efficiency Due to Eruption Source Parameters and Rapid Adjustments

AbstractThe relationship between volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and volcanic radiative forcing is key for quantifying volcanic climate impacts. In their Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used one scaling factor between volcanic SAOD and volcanic forcing based on climate model simulations of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which may not be appropriate for all eruptions. Using a large ensemble of aerosol‐chemistry‐climate simulations of eruptions with different sulfur dioxide emissions, latitudes, emission altitudes, and seasons, we find that the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is on average 20% less than the instantaneous radiative forcing, predominantly due to a positive shortwave cloud adjustment. In our model, the volcanic SAOD‐ERF relationship is non‐unique and varies widely depending on time since an eruption, eruption latitude, and season due to differences in aerosol dispersion and incoming solar radiation. Our revised SAOD‐ERF relationships suggest that volcanic forcing has been previously overestimated.

Impact of the 2018 Ambae Eruption on the Global Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Climate

AbstractDuring an extended volcanic unrest starting in 2017, two main moderate stratospheric eruptions occurred at the Ambae volcano (15°S and 167°E), Vanuatu, in April and July 2018. Observations from a geostationary orbit show that the April and July eruptions injected a volcanic plume into the lower stratosphere. While aerosol enhancements from the April eruption have only had an impact on the Southern Hemisphere, the plume from the July eruption was distributed within the lower branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation to both hemispheres. Satellite, ground‐based and in situ observations show that the background aerosol is enhanced throughout the year after the July eruption on a global scale. A volcanic‐induced perturbation of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth up to 0.011 is found, in the ultraviolet/visible spectral range. This perturbation is comparable to that of recent moderate stratospheric eruptions like from Kasatochi, Sarychev, and Nabro. Top of the atmosphere radiative forcing values are estimated between −0.45 and −0.6 W/m2 for this event, showing that the Ambae eruption had the strongest climatic impact of the year 2018. Thus, the Ambae eruption in 2018 has to be taken into account when studying the decadal lower stratospheric aerosol budget and in climate studies.

A New Volcanic Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Forcing Emulator (EVA_H): Comparison With Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Models

AbstractIdealized models or emulators of volcanic aerosol forcing have been widely used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of past volcanic forcing. However, existing models, including the most recently developed Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA; Toohey et al., doi: 10.5194/gmd‐2016‐83), (i) do not account for the height of injection of volcanic SO ; (ii) prescribe a vertical structure for the forcing; and (iii) are often calibrated against a single eruption. We present a new idealized model, EVA_H, that addresses these limitations. Compared to EVA, EVA_H makes predictions of the global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth that are (i) similar for the 1979–1998 period characterized by the large and high‐altitude tropical SO injections of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991); (ii) significantly improved for the 1998–2015 period characterized by smaller eruptions with a large variety of injection latitudes and heights. Compared to EVA, the sensitivity of volcanic forcing to injection latitude and height in EVA_H is much more consistent with results from climate models that include interactive aerosol chemistry and microphysics, even though EVA_H remains less sensitive to eruption latitude than the latter models. We apply EVA_H to investigate potential biases and uncertainties in EVA‐based volcanic forcing data sets from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). EVA and EVA_H forcing reconstructions do not significantly differ for tropical high‐altitude volcanic injections. However, for high‐latitude or low‐altitude injections, our reconstructed forcing is significantly lower. This suggests that volcanic forcing in CMIP6 last millenium experiments may be overestimated for such eruptions.

Stratospheric Smoke Properties Based on Lidar Observations in Autumn 2017 Over Warsaw

Smoke layers in the stratosphere were observed during autumn 2017 using PollyXT-UW Raman lidar at the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network in the frame of the Aerosol Cloud and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure, i.e. the EARLINET-ACTRIS site in Warsaw, Poland. The analysis was focused on discriminating very weak signatures of smoke layers in the stratosphere and investigating their optical properties. Preliminary results are presented and discussed. A decrease of the lidar-derived stratospheric aerosol optical depth contribution to the total optical depth was detected after the stratospheric smoke particles circled Northern Hemisphere.

Exploring How Eruption Source Parameters Affect Volcanic Radiative Forcing Using Statistical Emulation

AbstractThe radiative forcing caused by a volcanic eruption is dependent on several eruption source parameters such as the mass of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted, the eruption column height, and the eruption latitude. General circulation models with prognostic aerosol and chemistry schemes can be used to investigate how each parameter influences the volcanic forcing. However, the range of multidimensional parameter space that can be explored is restricted because such simulations are computationally expensive. Here we use statistical emulation to explore the radiative impact of eruptions over a wide covarying range of SO2 emission magnitudes, injection heights, and eruption latitudes based on only 30 simulations. We use the emulators to build response surfaces to visualize and predict the sulfate aerosol e‐folding decay time, the stratospheric aerosol optical depth, and net radiative forcing of thousands of different eruptions. We find that the volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth and net radiative forcing are primarily determined by the mass of SO2 emitted, but eruption latitude is the most important parameter in determining the sulfate aerosol e‐folding decay time. The response surfaces reveal joint effects of the eruption source parameters in influencing the net radiative forcing, such as a stronger influence of injection height for tropical eruptions than high‐latitude eruptions. We also demonstrate how the emulated response surfaces can be used to find all combinations of eruption source parameters that produce a particular volcanic response, often revealing multiple solutions.

Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a 60–70 year pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic commonly ascribed to internal ocean dynamics and changes in northward heat transport. Recent modeling studies, however, suggest that SSTs fluctuate primarily in response to major volcanic eruptions and changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we utilize historical SST, atmospheric reanalysis, and stratospheric aerosol optical depth data to examine the basic evidence supporting a volcanic link. We find that cool intervals across the North Atlantic coincide with two distinct episodes of explosive volcanic activity (1880s–1920s and 1960s–1990s), where key eruptions include 1883 Krakatau, 1902 Santa María, 1912 Novarupta, 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo. Cool SST patterns develop in association with an increased prevalence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)+ atmospheric patterns caused by stratospheric aerosol loading and a steepened poleward temperature gradient. NAO+ patterns promote wind-driven advection, evaporative cooling, and increased albedo from enhanced Saharan dust transport and anthropogenic aerosols. SSTs across the subpolar gyre are regulated by strength of low pressure near Iceland and the associated wind-driven advection of cold surface water from the Labrador Sea. This is contrary to an interpretation that subpolar SSTs are driven by changes in ocean overturning circulation. We also find that North Pacific and global mean SST declines can be readily associated with the same volcanic triggers that affect the North Atlantic. Thus, external forcing from volcanic aerosols appears to underpin multi-decade SST variability observed in the historical record.

Drivers of solar radiation variability in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Annually averaged solar radiation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica has varied by over 20 W m−2 during the past three decades; however, the drivers of this variability are unknown. Because small differences in radiation are important to water availability and ecosystem functioning in polar deserts, determining the causes are important to predictions of future desert processes. We examine the potential drivers of solar variability and systematically eliminate all but stratospheric sulfur dioxide. We argue that increases in stratospheric sulfur dioxide increase stratospheric aerosol optical depth and decrease solar intensity. Because of the polar location of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (77–78°S) and relatively long solar ray path through the stratosphere, terrestrial solar intensity is sensitive to small differences in stratospheric transmissivity. Important sources of sulfur dioxide include natural (wildfires and volcanic eruptions) and anthropogenic emission.

Model simulations of the chemical and aerosol microphysical evolution of the Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption cloud compared to in situ and satellite observations

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions impact climate through the injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2), which is oxidized to form sulfuric acid aerosol particles that can enhance the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD). Besides large-magnitude eruptions, moderate-magnitude eruptions such as Kasatochi in 2008 and Sarychev Peak in 2009 can have a significant impact on stratospheric aerosol and hence climate. However, uncertainties remain in quantifying the atmospheric and climatic impacts of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption due to limitations in previous model representations of volcanic aerosol microphysics and particle size, whilst biases have been identified in satellite estimates of post-eruption SAOD. In addition, the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption co-injected hydrogen chloride (HCl) alongside SO2, whose potential stratospheric chemistry impacts have not been investigated to date. We present a study of the stratospheric SO2–particle–HCl processing and impacts following Sarychev Peak eruption, using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) – Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) sectional aerosol microphysics model (with no a priori assumption on particle size). The Sarychev Peak 2009 eruption injected 0.9 Tg of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), enhancing the aerosol load in the Northern Hemisphere. The post-eruption evolution of the volcanic SO2 in space and time are well reproduced by the model when compared to Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite data. Co-injection of 27 Gg HCl causes a lengthening of the SO2 lifetime and a slight delay in the formation of aerosols, and acts to enhance the destruction of stratospheric ozone and mono-nitrogen oxides (NOx) compared to the simulation with volcanic SO2 only. We therefore highlight the need to account for volcanic halogen chemistry when simulating the impact of eruptions such as Sarychev on stratospheric chemistry. The model-simulated evolution of effective radius (reff) reflects new particle formation followed by particle growth that enhances reff to reach up to 0.2 µm on zonal average. Comparisons of the model-simulated particle number and size distributions to balloon-borne in situ stratospheric observations over Kiruna, Sweden, in August and September 2009, and over Laramie, USA, in June and November 2009 show good agreement and quantitatively confirm the post-eruption particle enhancement. We show that the model-simulated SAOD is consistent with that derived from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) when both the saturation bias of OSIRIS and the fact that extinction profiles may terminate well above the tropopause are taken into account. Previous modelling studies (involving assumptions on particle size) that reported agreement with (biased) post-eruption estimates of SAOD derived from OSIRIS likely underestimated the climate impact of the 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption.

Long-range transport of stratospheric aerosols in the Southern Hemisphere following the 2015 Calbuco eruption

Abstract. After 43 years of inactivity, the Calbuco volcano, which is located in the southern part of Chile, erupted on 22 April 2015. The space–time evolutions (distribution and transport) of its aerosol plume are investigated by combining satellite (CALIOP, IASI, OMPS), in situ aerosol counting (LOAC OPC) and lidar observations, and the MIMOSA advection model. The Calbuco aerosol plume reached the Indian Ocean 1 week after the eruption. Over the Reunion Island site (21° S, 55.5° E), the aerosol signal was unambiguously enhanced in comparison with background conditions, with a volcanic aerosol layer extending from 18 to 21 km during the May–July period. All the data reveal an increase by a factor of ∼ 2 in the SAOD (stratospheric aerosol optical depth) with respect to values observed before the eruption. The aerosol mass e-folding time is approximately 90 days, which is rather close to the value ( ∼ 80 days) reported for the Sarychev eruption. Microphysical measurements obtained before, during, and after the eruption reflecting the impact of the Calbuco eruption on the lower stratospheric aerosol content have been analyzed over the Reunion Island site. During the passage of the plume, the volcanic aerosol was characterized by an effective radius of 0.16 ± 0.02 µm with a unimodal size distribution for particles above 0.2 µm in diameter. Particle concentrations for sizes larger than 1 µm are too low to be properly detected by the LOAC OPC. The aerosol number concentration was ∼ 20 times higher that observed before and 1 year after the eruption. According to OMPS and lidar observations, a tendency toward conditions before the eruption was observed by April 2016. The volcanic aerosol plume is advected eastward in the Southern Hemisphere and its latitudinal extent is clearly bounded by the subtropical barrier and the polar vortex. The transient behavior of the aerosol layers observed above Reunion Island between May and July 2015 reflects an inhomogeneous spatio-temporal distribution of the plume, which is controlled by the localization of these dynamical barriers.