Stratified Cox Proportional Hazards Model Research Articles

Diverticular disease and risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular events: A nationwide matched cohort study.

An increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been reported in patients with diverticular disease (DD). However, there are knowledge gaps about specific risks of each major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) component. This nationwide cohort study included Swedish adults with DD (1987-2017, N=52,468) without previous CVD. DD was defined through ICD codes in the National Patient Register and colorectal histopathology reports from the ESPRESSO study. DD cases were matched by age, sex, calendar year and county of residence to ≤5 population reference individuals (N=194,525). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for MACE up until December 2021 were calculated using stratified Cox proportional hazard models. Median age at DD diagnosis was 62 years and 61% were females. During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 16,147 incident MACE occurred in individuals with DD, and 48,134 in reference individuals (incidence rates (IRs)=61.4 vs. 43.8/1,000 person-years) corresponding to an aHR of 1.24 (95%CI=1.22-1.27), equivalent to one extra case of MACE for every 6 DD patients followed for 10 years. The risk was increased for ischemic heart disease (IR=27.9 vs. 18.6; aHR=1.36, 95%CI=1.32-1.40), congestive heart failure (IR=23.2 vs. 15.8; aHR=1.26, 95%CI=1.22-1.31), and stroke (IR=18.0 vs. 13.7; aHR=1.15, 95%CI=1.11-1.19). DD was not associated with cardiovascular mortality (IR=18.9 vs. 15.3; aHR=1.01, 95%CI=0.98-1.05). Results remained robust in sibling-controlled analyses. Patients with DD had a 24% increased risk of MACE compared with reference individuals, but no increased cardiovascular mortality. Future research should confirm these data and examine underlying mechanisms and shared risk factors between DD and CVD.

Recurrence of Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer With Visceral Pleural Invasion

The randomized clinical trial Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) 140503 showed that for patients with clinically staged T1N0 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC; ≤2 cm), sublobar resections were associated with similar oncological outcomes to those after lobar resection. The association of the extent of parenchymal resection with recurrence and survival in patients with tumors pathologically upstaged to T2 based on visceral pleural invasion (VPI) is controversial. To determine survival and recurrence rates in patients with small peripheral pT2 NSCLC (≤2 cm) that was treated by either lobar or sublobar resection in CALGB 140503. CALGB 140503, a randomized multicenter noninferiority trial, included 697 patients with small peripheral NSCLC that was clinically staged as T1N0. Enrollment was from June 2007 through March 2017 at 83 participating institutions, and after a median follow-up of 7 years, the primary outcome of disease-free survival after sublobar resection was noninferior to that after lobar resection. Lobar or sublobar resection. Survival end points were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using stratified Cox proportional hazard models. Of 679 participants, 390 (57.4%) were female, and the median (range) age was 67.8 (37.8-89.7) years. Among 697 patients randomized, 566 (81.2%) had pT1 tumors (no VPI) and 113 (16.2%) had pT2 tumors (VPI). Five-year disease-free survival was 65.9% (95% CI, 61.9%-70.2%) in patients with pT1 compared with 53.3% (95% CI, 44.3%-64.1%) in patients with pT2 tumors (stratified log-rank: P = .02). Disease recurrence developed in 27.6% of patients with pT1 (locoregional only: 60 [10.8%]; distant only: 81 [14.6%]) and 41.6% of those with pT2 (locoregional only: 17 [15.0%]; distant only: 27 [23.9%]). Five-year recurrence-free survival was 73.1% (95% CI, 69.2%-77.1%) for pT1 tumors and 58.2% (95% CI, 49.2%-68.8%) for pT2 tumors (stratified log-rank: P = .01). There were no intergroup differences in disease-free or recurrence-free survival based on the extent of parenchymal resection. The results of this secondary analysis suggest that compared with patients with tumors without VPI, patients who had tumors with VPI had worse disease-free and recurrence-free survival and a higher rate of local and distant disease recurrence. These high rates of recurrence were independent of the extent of parenchymal resection, and these data support the inclusion of these patients in adjuvant therapy trials. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0049933.

Associations of steps per day and step intensity with the risk of cancer: Findings from the Women's Health Accelerometry Collaboration cohort

ObjectiveAccumulating more steps/day is associated with a lower risk of cancer mortality and composite cancer outcomes. However, less is known about the relationship of steps/day with the risk of multiple site-specific cancers. MethodsThis study included >22,000 women from the Women's Health Accelerometry Collaboration Cohort (2011−2022), comprised of women from the Women's Health Study and Women's Health Initiative Objective Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Health Study. Steps/day and step intensity were collected with accelerometry. Incident cancer cases and deaths were adjudicated. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the associations of steps/day and step intensity with incident breast, colon, endometrial, lung, and ovarian cancers, a composite of 13 physical activity-related cancers, total invasive cancer, and fatal cancer. ResultsOn average, women were 73.4 years old, accumulated 4993 steps/day, and had 7.9 years of follow-up. There were small nonsignificant inverse associations with the risks of colon cancer (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.05), endometrial cancer (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.01), and fatal cancer (HR = 0.95 95% CI: 0.90, 1.00) per 1000 steps/day. More minutes at ≥40 steps/min and a faster peak 10- and 30-min step cadence were associated with a lower risk of endometrial cancer, but findings were attenuated after adjustment for body mass index and steps/day. ConclusionsAmong women 62–97 years, there were small nonsignificant inverse associations of colon, endometrial, and fatal cancer with more steps/day. Epidemiologic studies with longer follow-up and updated assessments are needed to further explore these associations.

Deaths with COVID-19 and from all-causes following first-ever SARS-CoV-2 infection in individuals with preexisting mental disorders: A national cohort study from Czechia.

Evidence suggests reduced survival rates following Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in people with preexisting mental disorders, especially psychotic disorders, before the broad introduction of vaccines. It remains unknown whether this elevated mortality risk persisted at later phases of the pandemic and when accounting for the confounding effect of vaccination uptake and clinically recorded physical comorbidities. We used data from Czech national health registers to identify first-ever serologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in 5 epochs related to different phases of the pandemic: 1st March 2020 to 30th September 2020, 1st October 2020 to 26th December 2020, 27th December 2020 to 31st March 2021, 1st April 2021 to 31st October 2021, and 1st November 2021 to 29th February 2022. In these people, we ascertained cases of mental disorders using 2 approaches: (1) per the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnostic codes for substance use, psychotic, affective, and anxiety disorders; and (2) per ICD-10 diagnostic codes for the above mental disorders coupled with a prescription for anxiolytics/hypnotics/sedatives, antidepressants, antipsychotics, or stimulants per the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification codes. We matched individuals with preexisting mental disorders with counterparts who had no recorded mental disorders on age, sex, month and year of infection, vaccination status, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). We assessed deaths with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and from all-causes in the time period of 28 and 60 days following the infection using stratified Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for matching variables and additional confounders. The number of individuals in matched-cohorts ranged from 1,328 in epoch 1 to 854,079 in epoch 5. The proportion of females ranged from 34.98% in people diagnosed with substance use disorders in epoch 3 to 71.16% in individuals diagnosed and treated with anxiety disorders in epoch 5. The mean age ranged from 40.97 years (standard deviation [SD] = 15.69 years) in individuals diagnosed with substance use disorders in epoch 5 to 56.04 years (SD = 18.37 years) in people diagnosed with psychotic disorders in epoch 2. People diagnosed with or diagnosed and treated for psychotic disorders had a consistently elevated risk of dying with COVID-19 in epochs 2, 3, 4, and 5, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) ranging from 1.46 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1.18, 1.79] to 1.93 [95% CIs, 1.12, 3.32]. This patient group demonstrated also a consistently elevated risk of all-cause mortality in epochs 2, 3, 4, and 5 (aHR from 1.43 [95% CIs, 1.23, 1.66] to 1.99 [95% CIs, 1.25, 3.16]). The models could not be reliably fit for psychotic disorders in epoch 1. People diagnosed with substance use disorders had an increased risk of all-cause mortality 28 days postinfection in epoch 3, 4, and 5 (aHR from 1.30 [95% CIs, 1.14, 1.47] to 1.59 [95% CIs, 1.19, 2.12]) and 60 days postinfection in epoch 2, 3, 4, and 5 (aHR from 1.22 [95% CIs, 1.08, 1.38] to 1.52 [95% CIs, 1.16, 1.98]). Cases ascertained based on diagnosis of substance use disorders and treatment had increased risk of all-cause mortality in epoch 2, 3, 4, and 5 (aHR from 1.22 [95% CIs, 1.03, 1.43] to 1.91 [95% CIs, 1.25, 2.91]). The models could not be reliably fit for substance use disorders in epoch 1. In contrast to these, people diagnosed with anxiety disorders had a decreased risk of death with COVID-19 in epoch 2, 3, and 5 (aHR from 0.78 [95% CIs, 0.69, 0.88] to 0.89 [95% CIs, 0.81, 0.98]) and all-cause mortality in epoch 2, 3, 4, and 5 (aHR from 0.83 [95% CIs, 0.77, 0.90] to 0.88 [95% CIs, 0.83, 0.93]). People diagnosed and treated for affective disorders had a decreased risk of both death with COVID-19 and from all-causes in epoch 3 (aHR from 0.87 [95% CIs, 0.79, 0.96] to 0.90 [95% CIs, 0.83, 0.99]), but demonstrated broadly null effects in other epochs. Given the unavailability of data on a number of potentially influential confounders, particularly body mass index, tobacco smoking status, and socioeconomic status, part of the detected associations might be due to residual confounding. People with preexisting psychotic, and, less robustly, substance use disorders demonstrated a persistently elevated risk of death following SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the pandemic. While it cannot be ruled out that part of the detected associations is due to residual confounding, this excess mortality cannot be fully explained by lower vaccination uptake and more clinically recorded physical comorbidities in these patient groups.

Geographic and racial variability in kidney, cardiovascular and safety outcomes with canagliflozin: A secondary analysis of the CREDENCE randomized trial.

To explore the effect of canagliflozin on kidney and cardiovascular events and safety outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease across geographic regions and racial groups. A stratified Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess efficacy and safety outcomes by geographic region and racial group. The primary composite outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), doubling of the serum creatinine (SCr) level, or death from kidney or cardiovascular causes. Secondary outcomes included: (i) cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization; (ii) cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke; (iii) HF hospitalization; (iv) doubling of the SCr level, ESKD or kidney death; (v) cardiovascular death; (vi) all-cause death; and (vii) cardiovascular death, MI, stroke, or hospitalization for HF or for unstable angina. The 4401 patients were divided into six geographic region subgroups: North America (n = 1182, 27%), Central and South America (n = 941, 21%), Eastern Europe (n = 947, 21%), Western Europe (n = 421, 10%), Asia (n = 749, 17%) and Other (n = 161, 4%). The analyses included four racial groups: White (n = 2931, 67%), Black or African American (n = 224, 5%), Asian (n = 877, 20%) and Other (n = 369, 8%). Canagliflozin reduced the relative risk of the primary composite outcome in the overall trial by 30% (hazard ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.82; P = 0.00001). Across geographic regions and racial groups, canagliflozin consistently reduced the primary composite endpoint without evidence of heterogeneity (interaction P values of 0.39 and 0.91, respectively) or significant safety outcome differences. Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney and cardiovascular events similarly across geographic regions and racial groups.

Temporal Development of Microhabitats on Living Habitat Trees in Temperate European Forests

AbstractTree-related microhabitats (TreMs) have been promoted as indicators of forest biodiversity and to guide conservation practices. Ensuring the provision of diverse TreMs in the long term is crucial for the survival of many forest-dwelling species. Yet, this task is challenging in the absence of information regarding TreM dynamics. We analysed the temporal development of TreMs on 11,569 living trees in temperate European forests. To identify drivers of change in TreM abundance and richness over a period of 3–12 years, we estimated the rates of TreM persistence and loss events at the tree-level using survival analysis methods: persistence was characterised by consistency and increment events (when TreM numbers were maintained or increased) and loss was defined as a reduction in TreM numbers or their disappearance. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models were fitted for different TreM groups. Our study revealed a highly dynamic TreM development on living habitat trees, particularly on large trees. While specific TreMs are prone to disappearing, irrespective of tree species or TreM groups, total TreM richness persists over a 12-year period. TreMs such as crown deadwood, epiphytes or woodpecker cavities are prone to decrease in the long term. However, large trees were more likely to maintain a certain degree of TreM richness. Increasing diameters resulted in high persistence rates in seven TreM groups and concomitantly low loss rates in four of them (exposed sap- and heartwood, concavities). Selecting habitat trees based on TreMs should consider the likelihood of TreMs being lost over time, to ensure the long-term provision of microhabitats for associated species. Graphical Abstract

Abemaciclib plus fulvestrant vs fulvestrant alone for HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer following progression on a prior CDK4/6 inhibitor plus endocrine therapy: Primary outcome of the phase 3 postMONARCH trial.

LBA1001 Background: The combination of CDK4/6 inhibitors (CDK4/6i) + endocrine therapy (ET) is the standard first line treatment for HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer (ABC). While disease progression occurs in nearly all patients (pts) with ABC, the optimal treatment for pts who experience progression on a CDK4/6i + ET remains uncertain. Real-world evidence suggests that use of abemaciclib after disease progression on a prior CDK4/6i prolongs progression-free survival (PFS) in ABC; however, Phase 2 trials with other CDK4/6i have generated mixed results. Here we present the primary outcome analysis for the Phase 3 postMONARCH trial (NCT05169567) of fulvestrant + abemaciclib or placebo in pts with HR+, HER2- ABC following disease progression on prior CDK4/6i + ET. Methods: postMONARCH was a global, double-blind, placebo-controlled study with pts randomized 1:1 to abemaciclib + fulvestrant or placebo + fulvestrant. Eligible pts had disease progression on a CDK4/6i + AI as initial therapy for ABC or relapse on/after a CDK4/6i + ET as adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. No other prior treatment for ABC was permitted. Primary endpoint was investigator-assessed PFS; secondary endpoints included PFS by blinded independent central review (BICR), overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), and safety. Assuming a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.7, the study had ~80% power to detect superiority for abemaciclib, with a cumulative 2-sided type I error of 0.05. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate PFS curves and treatment effect was estimated using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model. Results: A total of 368 pts were randomized to abemaciclib + fulvestrant (n = 182) or placebo + fulvestrant (n= 186). Most pts (99%) enrolled directly after CDK4/6i + ET as initial therapy for ABC. Prior CDK4/6i was 59% palbociclib, 33% ribociclib, and 8% abemaciclib. At interim analysis, the study reached the pre-specified criteria for significantly improved investigator-assessed PFS with abemaciclib + fulvestrant compared to placebo + fulvestrant (169 events, HR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.48 – 0.91; p = 0.01). At primary analysis (258 events), the HR was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57 – 0.95), with PFS rates at 6 months of 50% vs 37% for the abemaciclib and placebo arms, respectively. Consistent effect was seen across major clinical and genomic subgroups, including pts with baseline ESR1 or PIK3CA mutations. ORR was improved with abemaciclib compared to placebo (17% vs 7%, respectively, in pts with measurable disease). PFS according to BICR was also improved with HR = 0.55 (95% CI 0.39 - 0.77). OS remains immature (20.9% event rate). Safety was consistent with the known profile of abemaciclib. Conclusions: Abemaciclib + fulvestrant demonstrated statistically significant PFS improvement in pts with ABC progression on prior CDK4/6i-containing therapy. Clinical trial information: NCT05169567 .

Open-label, randomized, multicenter, phase 3, ELAINE 3 study of the efficacy and safety of lasofoxifene plus abemaciclib for treating ER+/HER2-, locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer with an ESR1 mutation.

TPS1127 Background: Patients with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) may develop resistance to endocrine therapy (ET), particularly following treatment with a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i), potentially driven by a mutation in the ERa-coding gene, ESR1. Lasofoxifene (LAS), an oral, next-generation ET and ER breast antagonist, was evaluated in two phase 2 studies of women with ER+/HER2- mBC and an ESR1 mutation who had disease progression on previous ET and CDK4/6i. The ELAINE 1 trial showed numerically greater progression-free survival (PFS, median ~6 vs 4 mos; P=0.138), objective response rate (ORR, 13% vs 3%; P=0.124), and clinical benefit rate (CBR, 37% vs 22%; P=0.117) with LAS monotherapy versus the ER degrader fulvestrant (fulv), with a favorable safety profile (1). The single-arm, ELAINE 2 trial demonstrated that LAS plus abemaciclib (Abema) was well tolerated with a median PFS of ~13 mos, ORR of 56%, and CBR of 66% (2). Based on these data, the phase 3, registrational, ELAINE 3 trial was initiated. Methods: ELAINE 3 (NCT05696626) is an open-label, phase 3, multicenter study evaluating the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of LAS plus Abema versus fulv plus Abema. Key inclusion criteria are pre- and postmenopausal women and men aged ≥18 yrs; ER+/HER2-, locally advanced and/or mBC (measurable and/or non-measurable disease); ≥1 acquired ESR1 mutation; progression on an aromatase inhibitor plus palbociclib or ribociclib as their first hormonal treatment for advanced/mBC; and ≤1 line of chemotherapy in the advanced/metastatic setting. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive LAS 5 mg/day plus Abema 150 mg BID, or fulv 500 mg IM on days 1, 15, and 29, then once monthly plus Abema 150 mg BID. Treatment will continue until progression, death, unacceptable toxicity, or withdrawal from the study. The primary endpoint is PFS; key secondary endpoints are ORR, overall survival, CBR, duration of response, and time to response. Time to cytotoxic chemotherapy, quality of life, and safety will also be evaluated. Blood samples for circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) will be collected for genomic analyses at screening, at weeks 4 and 8 and every 8 weeks thereafter, and at the final visit. Outcomes with LAS/Abema and fulv/Abema will be compared using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model and stratified logrank test. Expected PFS is ≥10.3 mos for LAS/Abema and 7 mos for fulv/Abema (PFS hazard ratio of 0.68 at final analysis). The target sample size is 400, to achieve 90% power with a one-sided type I error rate of 0.025 after 285 PFS events. Full recruitment is expected to occur over 18 mos at approximately 125 global sites. 1. Goetz MP, et al. Ann Oncol. 2023;34:1141-1151. 2. Damodaran S, et al. Ann Oncol. 2023;34:1131-1140. Clinical trial information: NCT05696626 .

NALIRIFOX versus nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine in treatment-naïve patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC): Updated overall survival analysis with 29-month follow-up of NAPOLI 3.

4136 Background: NAPOLI 3 (NCT04083235, N = 770), a global, randomized, open-label phase 3 study, demonstrated that NALIRIFOX significantly improved overall survival (OS, primary endpoint) and progression-free survival compared with nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine in patients with untreated mPDAC. Here, we report an updated analysis of OS. Methods: Eligible patients with histopathologically/cytologically confirmed untreated mPDAC were randomized (1:1) to receive liposomal irinotecan 50 mg/m2 + oxaliplatin 60 mg/m2 + leucovorin 400 mg/m2 + 5-fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 (NALIRIFOX, n = 383) on days 1 and 15 of a 28-day cycle or nab-paclitaxel 125 mg/m2 and gemcitabine 1000 mg/m2 (Gem+NabP, n = 387) on days 1, 8 and 15 of a 28-day cycle. Randomization was stratified by ECOG performance status, geographic region and presence/absence of liver metastases. An updated OS analysis (data cutoff: 3 October 2023) was conducted. Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate median (95% confidence interval [CI]) OS and hazard ratios (HRs [95% CI]) were estimated using stratified Cox proportional hazard models. The difference between groups was tested using a stratified log-rank test. Results: The median follow-up for OS was 28.7 months in the NALIRIFOX arm and 29.7 months in the Gem+NabP arm. At data cutoff, 11 patients were still receiving study treatment, all of whom were in the NALIRIFOX arm. With a total of 673 OS events (NALIRIFOX, n = 328; Gem+NabP, n = 345), median OS was 11.1 months (95% CI 10.0–12.1) in the NALIRIFOX arm compared with 9.2 months (8.3–10.6) in the Gem+NabP arm (HR 0.84 [95% CI 0.72–0.98]; nominal p = 0.026). At 12 months and 18 months, survival rates were 45.6% (95% CI 40.5–50.5) and 26.6% (22.2–31.1), respectively, in the NALIRIFOX arm and 39.6% (34.7–44.5) and 20.0% (16.1–24.1), respectively, in the Gem+NabP arm. Conclusions: In this 29-month follow-up of NAPOLI 3, NALIRIFOX continued to demonstrate improved OS compared with Gem+NabP, with 11 patients still receiving the NALIRIFOX regimen. These data confirm NALIRIFOX as a new possible standard of care and reference regimen for the first-line treatment of patients with mPDAC. Clinical trial information: NCT04083235 .

INAVO122: A phase III study of maintenance inavolisib or placebo + pertuzumab + trastuzumab following induction with pertuzumab + trastuzumab + a taxane in patients (pts) with PIK3CA-mutated, HER2-positive advanced breast cancer (HER2+ aBC).

TPS1124 Background: The PI3K pathway plays a crucial role in HER2 signaling. Somatic mutations of PIK3CA, the gene that encodes the PI3K p110α subunit, may induce resistance to HER2-targeted therapies and are associated with poorer clinical outcomes (Swain SM, et al. SABCS 2022; P2-11-07). Inavolisib, a potent p110α-selective inhibitor that induces degradation of mutant p110α, has shown antitumor activity in PIK3CA-mutated HER2+ BC and long-term tolerability with early intervention for common on-class toxicities, including hyperglycemia, diarrhea, and stomatitis (Jhaveri KL, et al. SABCS 2023; GS03-13, Bedard P, et al. ASCO 2022; 1052). The current study will assess the efficacy and safety of maintenance inavolisib + fixed-dose combination of pertuzumab + trastuzumab for subcutaneous injection (PH FDC SC) after first-line (1L) induction treatment in pts with PIK3CA-mutated, HER2+ aBC. Methods: INAVO122 (NCT05894239) is a multicenter, randomized, international, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Pts will be enrolled for: 1L induction treatment if they are receiving/will receive PH + a taxane; or for maintenance treatment if they completed induction treatment per standard of care. In the maintenance phase, pts will be randomized 1:1 to receive inavolisib (9 mg orally once daily; 21-day cycles) + PH FDC SC (every 3 weeks), or placebo + PH FDC SC. Study treatment will continue until disease progression (PD), unacceptable toxicity, death, consent withdrawal, or at the investigator’s (INV) discretion. Enrolled pts must have centrally determined HER2+, PIK3CA-mutated tumors, with documented hormone receptor status per local assessment, and be disease-free for ≥6 months from completion of neoadjuvant/adjuvant HER2-targeted treatment. They must not have received any non-hormonal treatment for aBC prior to induction, and, at screening, fasting glucose must be <126 mg/dL and HbA1c <6.4%. To be randomized, pts must have completed induction therapy without PD and show left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%. The primary endpoint is INV-assessed progression-free survival. Secondary endpoints are overall survival; INV-assessed objective response rate, duration of response, clinical benefit rate, and time to second disease progression; health-related quality of life; safety; and pharmacokinetics. The primary endpoint analysis will utilize a two-sided stratified log-rank test at a two-sided significance level of 5%. A stratified Cox proportional hazards model will be used to estimate the hazard ratio between the two treatment arms and its 95% confidence intervals. An independent data monitoring committee will be in place for safety. Target randomization is ~230 pts; this study is currently recruiting (15 pts enrolled). Encore from SABCS 2023 (PO2-19-09). Clinical trial information: NCT05894239 .

Respiratory morbidity among offspring misclassified as growth restricted.

An ultrasound-based diagnosis implies that some fetuses suspected to be growth-restricted (FGR) are discovered at birth to be appropriately grown (appropriate for gestational age [AGA] birth weight, between the 10th and 90th percentile). These fetuses may thus be exposed to unnecessary medical interventions, including early labor induction. In this study, we have evaluated the long-term respiratory health of offspring misclassified as FGR. A population-based cohort analysis was conducted, including deliveries of AGA singletons between 1991 and 2021 at a tertiary referral hospital. Incidence of morbidity due to various respiratory conditions was compared between AGA offspring with prenatal diagnosis of FGR, and those without a false diagnosis of FGR. The Kaplan-Meier approach was used to estimate cumulative morbidity incidence. The stratified Cox proportional-hazards model was used to control for confounders. A total of 324,620 deliveries of AGA newborns were included in the analyses; 3249 of them (1.0%) were misclassified prenatally as FGR. The FGR subgroup delivered at an earlier gestational age (36.7 vs. 39.1 weeks, p < .001) and had more than 25% higher incidence of respiratory-related morbidity during childhood (33.2% vs. 26.5%), specifically related to asthma and obstructive sleep apnea (p < .001 for all). A higher cumulative morbidity rate due to respiratory conditions was observed in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (log-rank p value < .001). This association between FGR and respiratory morbidity was independent of preterm delivery, maternal age, cesarean delivery, and child's birth year (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.21, p < .001), using a Cox proportional hazards model. AGA newborns misclassified as FGR, are at an increased risk for long-term respiratory morbidity during childhood and adolescence.

Within-city spatial variations in PM2.5 magnetite nanoparticles and brain cancer incidence in Toronto and Montreal, Canada.

Magnetite nanoparticles are small, strongly magnetic iron oxide particles which are produced during high-temperature combustion and friction processes and form part of the outdoor air pollution mixture. These particles can translocate to the brain and have been found in human brain tissue. In this study, we estimated associations between within-city spatial variations in concentrations of magnetite nanoparticles in outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and brain cancer incidence. We performed a cohort study of 1.29 million participants in four cycles of the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort in Montreal and Toronto, Canada who were followed for malignant brain tumour (glioma) incidence. As a proxy for magnetite nanoparticle content, we measured the susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (χARM) in PM2.5 samples (N = 124 in Montreal, N = 110 in Toronto), and values were assigned to residential locations. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (per IQR change in volume-normalized χARM). ARM was not associated with brain tumour incidence (HR = 0.998, 95% CI 0.988, 1.009) after adjusting for relevant potential confounders. Although we found no evidence of an important relationship between within-city spatial variations in airborne magnetite nanoparticles and brain tumour incidence, further research is needed to evaluate this understudied exposure, and other measures of exposure to magnetite nanoparticles should be considered.

One-year freedom from arrhythmia following radiofrequency ablation using proactive oesophageal cooling

Abstract Background Proactive esophageal cooling is increasingly being utilized, and is now FDA cleared, to reduce the likelihood of ablation-related esophageal injury resulting from radiofrequency (RF) cardiac ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). One-year follow-up from the largest randomized controlled study, the IMPACT trial, showed a trend towards improvement in long-term efficacy versus luminal esophageal temperature (LET) monitoring. With larger data sets now available for analysis, we sought to determine 1-year freedom from atrial arrhythmia associated with the use of proactive esophageal cooling. Methods Data from 2 trials comparing freedom from atrial arrhythmia after RF ablation using proactive esophageal cooling to LET monitoring were combined. Data were analyzed using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model to compare arrhythmia recurrence rates, with R statistical analysis software. Results Data from 631 patients across two studies comparing arrhythmia outcomes for proactive oesophageal cooling versus LET monitoring were analysed. Mean patient age was 66.4±9.8 years, and 37.4% were female. Arrhythmias were 56.3% paroxysmal AF and 43.7% persistent or long-standing persistent AF. Freedom from atrial arrhythmia at one year was 77.2% for patients receiving proactive oesophageal cooling and 64.4% for patients receiving LET monitoring (Figure 1), with a hazard ratio for cooling of 0.65 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.99, P = 0.044). Conclusions Proactive oesophageal cooling was associated with significantly greater freedom from atrial arrhythmia at one year when compared to LET monitoring during RF ablation.

Abstract PO2-19-09: INAVO122: a Phase III study of maintenance inavolisib or placebo + pertuzumab + trastuzumab following induction with pertuzumab + trastuzumab + a taxane in patients with PIK3CA-mutated, HER2-positive advanced breast cancer

Abstract Background The PI3K pathway plays a crucial role in HER2 signaling. Somatic mutations of PIK3CA, the gene that encodes the PI3K p110α subunit, may induce resistance to HER2-targeted therapies and are associated with poorer clinical outcomes (Swain SM, et al. SABCS 2022; P2-11-07). Inavolisib, a potent p110α-selective inhibitor that induces degradation of mutant p110α, has shown antitumor activity in PIK3CA-mutated HER2-positive breast cancer (HER2+ BC) and long-term tolerability with early intervention for common on-class toxicities, including hyperglycemia, diarrhea, and stomatitis (Bedard P, et al. ASCO 2022; 1052). The current study will assess the efficacy and safety of maintenance inavolisib + fixed-dose combination of pertuzumab + trastuzumab for subcutaneous injection (PH FDC SC) after first-line induction treatment in patients with PIK3CA-mutated, HER2+, advanced BC (aBC). Trial design INAVO122 is a multicenter, randomized, international, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Patients will be enrolled for: first-line induction treatment if they are receiving/will receive PH + a taxane; or maintenance treatment completing induction treatment. In the maintenance phase, patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive inavolisib (9 mg orally once daily; Days 1–21 of 21-day cycles) + PH FDC SC (every 3 weeks), or placebo + PH FDC SC. Study treatment will continue until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, death, consent withdrawal, or at the investigator’s discretion. ELIGIBILITY Enrolled patients must have centrally determined HER2+, PIK3CA-mutated tumors, with documented hormone receptor status per local assessment, and be disease-free for ≥ 6 months from completion of neoadjuvant/adjuvant systemic non-hormonal treatment. They must not have received any treatment for aBC prior to induction, and, at screening, fasting glucose must be &amp;lt; 126 mg/dL and HbA1c &amp;lt; 6.4%. To be randomized, patients must have completed induction therapy per standard of care without progression of disease and show left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50%. AIMS The primary endpoint is investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Secondary endpoints are overall survival; investigator-assessed objective response rate, duration of response, clinical benefit rate, and time to second disease progression; health-related quality of life; safety; and pharmacokinetics. STATISTICAL METHODS The primary endpoint analysis will utilize a two-sided stratified log-rank test at a two-sided significance level of 5%. A stratified Cox proportional hazards model will be used to estimate the hazard ratio between the two treatment arms and its 95% confidence intervals. ACCRUAL Target randomization is ~230 patients; recruitment began in July 2023. CONTACT INFORMATION For more information or to refer a patient, email global.rochegenentechtrials@roche.com or call 1-888-662-6728 (USA only). Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT05894239. Citation Format: Sandra Swain, Carlos Barrios, Reva Basho, Giuseppe Curigliano, Nadia Harbeck, Chiun-Shen Huang, Sherene Loi, Nicholas Turner, Jessica Chen, Volkmar Henschel, Simon Warburton, Fabiola Amair-Pinedo, Javier Cortés. INAVO122: a Phase III study of maintenance inavolisib or placebo + pertuzumab + trastuzumab following induction with pertuzumab + trastuzumab + a taxane in patients with PIK3CA-mutated, HER2-positive advanced breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-19-09.

Abstract PO1-18-12: Trial in progress: Open-label, randomized, multicenter, phase 3, ELAINE 3 study of the efficacy and safety of lasofoxifene plus abemaciclib for treating locally advanced or ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer with an ESR1 mutation

Abstract Background: Patients with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) metastatic breast cancer (BC) may develop resistance to endocrine therapy (ET), particularly following treatment with a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i), potentially driven by a mutation in the ERa-coding gene, ESR1. Lasofoxifene, an oral, next-generation ET and ER breast antagonist, had potent activity in mBC xenograft models expressing ESR1 mutations, either as a single agent or combined with a CDK4/6i. Subsequently, two phase 2 studies evaluated lasofoxifene in women with ER+/HER2- metastatic BC and an ESR1 mutation who had disease progression on previous ET and CDK4/6i. The ELAINE 1 trial showed numerically greater progression-free survival (PFS, median ~6 vs 4 months; P=0.138), objective response rate (ORR, 13% vs 3%; P=0.124), and clinical benefit rate (CBR, 37% vs 22%; P=0.117) with lasofoxifene monotherapy versus the ER degrader fulvestrant, with a favorable safety profile (Goetz MP, et al. Ann Oncol. 2022;33:S1387). The single-arm, ELAINE 2 trial demonstrated that lasofoxifene combined with abemaciclib was well tolerated with a median PFS of ~13 months, ORR of 56%, and CBR of 66% (Damodaran S, et al. J Clin Oncol. 2023;41:suppl 16; abstr 1057). Based on these data, the phase 3, registrational, ELAINE 3 trial was initiated. Methods: ELAINE 3 (NCT05696626) is an open-label, phase 3, multicenter study evaluating the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of lasofoxifene plus abemaciclib versus fulvestrant plus abemaciclib. Key inclusion criteria are pre- and postmenopausal women and men aged ≥18 years; ER+/HER2-, locally advanced and/or metastatic BC (measurable and/or non-measurable disease); ≥1 acquired ESR1 mutation; progression on an aromatase inhibitor plus palbociclib or ribociclib as their first hormonal treatment for advanced/metastatic BC; and ≤1 line of chemotherapy in the advanced/metastatic setting. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive lasofoxifene 5 mg/day plus abemaciclib 150 mg BID, or fulvestrant 500 mg IM on days 1, 15, and 29, then 4 weekly plus abemaciclib 150 mg BID. Treatment will continue until progression, death, unacceptable toxicity, or withdrawal from the study. The primary endpoint is PFS; key secondary endpoints are ORR, overall survival, CBR, duration of response, and time to response. Time to cytotoxic chemotherapy, quality of life, and safety will also be evaluated. Blood samples for circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) will be collected at screening, at weeks 4 and 8 and every 8 weeks thereafter, and at the final visit for genomic analyses. Outcomes with lasofoxifene/abemaciclib and fulvestrant/abemaciclib will be compared using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model and stratified logrank test. Expected PFS is ≥10.3 months for lasofoxifene/abemaciclib and 7 months for fulvestrant/abemaciclib (PFS hazard ratio of 0.68 at final analysis). The target sample size is 400, to achieve 90% power with a one-sided type I error rate of 0.025 after 285 PFS events. Full recruitment is expected to occur over 18 months at 125 global sites. Citation Format: Matthew Goetz, Seth Wander, Thomas Bachelot, Gerald Batist, Javier Cortés, Massimo Cristofanilli, Giuseppe Curigliano, Alexandre de Nonneville, Einav Nili-Gal Yam, Komal Jhaveri, Cynthia Ma, Heather Parsons, Hope Rugo, Sarah Sammons, Daniel Stover, Chris Twelves, Aditya Bardia, Paul V. Plourde, David J Portman, Senthil Damodaran. Trial in progress: Open-label, randomized, multicenter, phase 3, ELAINE 3 study of the efficacy and safety of lasofoxifene plus abemaciclib for treating locally advanced or ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer with an ESR1 mutation [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO1-18-12.

Abstract GS01-12: MONARCH 3: Final overall survival results of abemaciclib plus a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor as first-line therapy for HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer

Abstract Background: Abemaciclib is approved both for high-risk early breast cancer as well as advanced breast cancer (ABC) in the first- and second-line setting. In MONARCH 2, the addition of abemaciclib to fulvestrant significantly improved both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with HR+, HER2- ABC with disease progression on prior endocrine therapy (ET). In MONARCH 3, the addition of abemaciclib to a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor (NSAI) significantly improved PFS (HR, 0.540; 95% CI, 0.418-0.698; p=0.000002) as initial therapy in HR+, HER2- ABC. At the last interim OS analysis (~252 events, at 5.8 years follow-up [FU]), a numerically favorable median OS difference (12.6 months) was observed (HR, 0.754; 95% CI, 0.584-0.974; p=0.0301, non-significant [NS]). Here, we present the final OS analysis of MONARCH 3 (NCT02246621). Methods: MONARCH 3 is a randomized, double-blind, Phase 3 study of abemaciclib + NSAI (anastrozole or letrozole) vs placebo + NSAI in postmenopausal women with HR+, HER2- ABC without prior systemic therapy in the advanced setting. OS was a gated secondary endpoint and chemotherapy-free survival (CFS) an exploratory endpoint. Final OS analysis was planned after approximately 315 OS events had occurred in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population with a split alpha between the ITT population and the subgroup with visceral disease (sVD) according to a prespecified graphical testing scheme. Kaplan-Meier method and stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used for time-to-event analyses. All reported p-values are two-sided. Results A total of 493 women were randomized 2:1 to receive abemaciclib + NSAI (n=328) or placebo + NSAI (n=165). After a median FU of 8.1 years, 7% of patients were still receiving treatment in the abemaciclib arm vs 3% in the placebo arm. In the ITT population, 314 OS events were observed (198 deaths among 328 patients [60%] in the abemaciclib arm and 116 among 165 [70%] in the placebo arm; HR, 0.804; 95% CI, 0.637-1.015; p=0.0664, NS). Median OS was 66.8 months in the abemaciclib arm and 53.7 months in the placebo arm, a numerical difference of 13.1 months in the ITT population. In the sVD, 178 events were observed (113 deaths among 173 patients [65%] in the abemaciclib arm and 65 among 90 [72%] in the placebo arm; HR, 0.758; 95% CI, 0.558-1.030; p=0.0757, NS). Median OS was 63.7 months in the abemaciclib arm and 48.8 months in the placebo arm, a numerical difference of 14.9 months in the sVD. Consistent OS differences were observed across prespecified subgroups. PFS benefit was sustained (median 29.0 vs 14.8 months; HR, 0.535; 95% CI, 0.429-0.668; nominal p&amp;lt;0.0001) with substantial difference in 6-year PFS rates (23.3% vs 4.3% for abemaciclib vs placebo). CFS was also improved with abemaciclib vs placebo (median 46.7 vs 30.6 months; HR, 0.693; 95% CI, 0.557-0.863; nominal p=0.0010). No new safety signals were observed with longer term use. Conclusion In patients with HR+, HER2- ABC, abemaciclib in combination with a NSAI resulted in numerically longer OS compared to NSAI alone; however, statistical significance was not reached after a median FU of 8.1 years. The clinically meaningful improvement in median OS (&amp;gt;13 months) combined with the sustained significant improvement in median PFS (&amp;gt;14 months) and substantial extension in median CFS (&amp;gt;16 months) continue to support the use of abemaciclib in combination with NSAI as first-line therapy in ABC. Citation Format: Matthew Goetz, Masakazu Toi, Jens Huober, Joo Hyuk Sohn, Olivier Trédan, Inhae Park, Mario Campone, Shin-Cheh Chen, Luis Manual Manso, Shani Paluch-Shimon, Orit C. Freedman, Valerie Andre, Abhijoy Saha, Gertjan van Hal, Ashwin Shahir, Hiroji Iwata, Stephen RD Johnston, Joyce O'Shaughnessy, Xavier Pivot, Sara Tolaney, Sara Hurvitz, Antonio Llombart. MONARCH 3: Final overall survival results of abemaciclib plus a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor as first-line therapy for HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr GS01-12.

Intentional Self-Harm and Death by Suicide in Body Dysmorphic Disorder: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BackgroundBody dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is thought to be associated with considerable suicide risk. This nationwide cohort study quantified the risks of intentional self-harm—including nonsuicidal self-injuries and suicide attempts—and death by suicide in BDD. MethodsIndividuals with a validated ICD-10 diagnosis of BDD in the Swedish National Patient Register, registered between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2020, were matched with 10 unexposed individuals (i.e., without BDD) from the general population on birth year, sex, and county of residence. Conditional Poisson regression models estimated incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs for intentional self-harm. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios and 95% CIs for death by suicide. Models adjusted for sociodemographic variables and lifetime psychiatric comorbidities. ResultsAmong 2833 individuals with BDD and 28,330 unexposed matched individuals, 466 (16.45%) and 1071 (3.78%), respectively, had at least 1 record of intentional self-harm during the study period (incidence rate ratio = 3.37; 95% CI, 3.02–3.76). In the BDD group, about two-thirds (n = 314; 67%) had their first recorded self-harm event before their first BDD diagnosis. A total of 17 (0.60%) individuals with BDD and 27 (0.10%) unexposed individuals died by suicide (hazard ratio = 3.47; 95% CI, 1.76–6.85). All results remained robust to additional adjustment for lifetime psychiatric comorbidities. A higher proportion of individuals with BDD who died by suicide had at least 1 previous record of intentional self-harm compared with unexposed individuals (52.94% vs. 22.22%; p = .036). ConclusionsBDD was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of intentional self-harm and death by suicide.

Time to benefit of colchicine in patients with cardiovascular disease: A pooled analysis of randomized controlled trials

BackgroundLow-dose colchicine has been shown to lower major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among those with cardiovascular disease (CVD). It remains unclear how long a CVD patient needs to live to potentially benefit from colchicine. Our study aimed to determine the time to benefit (TTB) of colchicine in individuals with CVD. MethodsLiterature searches were performed in PubMed for the cardiovascular outcome trial of colchicine in patients with CVD until October 12, 2023. The primary outcome measured was MACE. Reconstructed individual participant data (IPD) and the stratified Cox proportional hazards model were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) to estimate the efficacy of colchicine, and Weibull survival curves were fitted to estimate TTB for specific absolute risk reduction (ARR) thresholds (0.002, 0.005, and 0.01). ResultsFour trials randomizing 11,594 adults aged between 59.8 and 66.5 years were included (follow-up duration: 12–28.6 months). Compared with placebo, colchicine reduced the risk of MACE (HR 0.68, 95 % CI: 0.60 to 0.78) but had no impact on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A TTB of 11.0 months (95 % CI: 0.59 to 21.3) was estimated to be needed to prevent 1 MACE in 100-colchicine-treated patients. The TTB for acute coronary syndrome was similar compared to stable coronary artery disease (10.7 vs. 11.2 months for ARR = 0.010). ConclusionsBy using reconstructed IPD, this pooled analysis demonstrated that colchicine was associated with reduced nonfatal MACE, and the TTB was approximately 11.0 months to prevent 1 MACE per 100 patients.

Effect modification of diet and vitamins on the association between air pollution particles of different diameters and hypertension: A 12-year longitudinal cohort study in densely populated areas of China

IntroductionParticulate matter (PM) is identified as one of the exacerbating and triggering factors for hypertension. Diet intake and the consumption of vitamins may potentially moderate the impact of PM on hypertension. MethodsA 12-year longitudinal cohort study was conducted on a population in densely populated areas of China. Residual balancing with weighted methods was employed to control for time-varying and no time-varying confounding factors. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models were conducted to examine the moderating effects of diet and vitamins on the risk of hypertension with PM. ResultsThere was a significant positive association between long-term exposure to different diameter PM and the risk of developing hypertension. The hazard ratios (HRs) for hypertension were 1.0200 (95 % CIs: 1.0147, 1.0253) for PM1, 1.0120 (95 % CIs: 1.0085, 1.0155) for PM2.5, and 1.0074 (95 % CIs, 1.0056, 1.0092) for PM10. The diet and vitamins moderated these associations, the intake of healthy foods and vitamins exhibited a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between PM exposure and hypertension risk. Among all participants, the high intake of fruit (PM1 (HRs: 1.0102, 95 % CIs: 1.0024, 1.0179), PM2.5 (HRs: 1.0060, 95 % CIs: 1.0011, 1.0109), and PM10 (HRs: 1.0044, 95 % CIs: 1.0018, 1.0070)) and vitamin E (PM1 (HRs: 1.0143, 95 % CIs: 1.0063, 1.0223), PM2.5 (HRs:1.0179, 95 % CIs: 1.0003, 1.0166), and PM10 (HRs: 1.0042, 95 % CIs: 1.0008, 1.0075)) with lower risk of hypertension than the overall level and low intake of related foods and vitamins, exhibited a strong positive moderating effect on the relationship between PM and hypertension. Similar trends were observed for the intake of fish, root food, whole grains, eggs, fungus food, vitamin B2, B3. However, Na, meat, sugary and alcoholic exhibited opposite trends. The moderating effect of vitamin E intake was stronger than vitamin B and C. ConclusionsDiet and vitamins intake may moderate the association between PM exposure and the risk of hypertension in adults.

Development of preoperative and postoperative models to predict recurrence in postoperative glioma patients: a longitudinal cohort study

BackgroundGlioma recurrence, subsequent to maximal safe resection, remains a pivotal challenge. This study aimed to identify key clinical predictors influencing recurrence and develop predictive models to enhance neurological diagnostics and therapeutic strategies.MethodsThis longitudinal cohort study with a substantial sample size (n = 2825) included patients with non-recurrent glioma who were pathologically diagnosed and had undergone initial surgical resection between 2010 and 2018. Logistic regression models and stratified Cox proportional hazards models were established with the top 15 clinical variables significantly influencing outcomes screened by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. Preoperative and postoperative models predicting short-term (within 6 months) postoperative recurrence in glioma patients were developed to explore the risk factors associated with short- and long-term recurrence in glioma patients.ResultsPreoperative and postoperative logistic models predicting short-term recurrence had accuracies of 0.78 and 0.87, respectively. A range of biological and early symptomatic characteristics linked to short- and long-term recurrence have been pinpointed. Age, headache, muscle weakness, tumor location and Karnofsky score represented significant odd ratios (t > 2.65, p < 0.01) in the preoperative model, while age, WHO grade 4 and chemotherapy or radiotherapy treatments (t > 4.12, p < 0.0001) were most significant in the postoperative period. Postoperative predictive models specifically targeting the glioblastoma and IDH wildtype subgroups were also performed, with an AUC of 0.76 and 0.80, respectively. The 50 combinations of distinct risk factors accommodate diverse recurrence risks among glioma patients, and the nomograms visualizes the results for clinical practice. A stratified Cox model identified many prognostic factors for long-term recurrence, thereby facilitating the enhanced formulation of perioperative care plans for patients, and glioblastoma patients displayed a median progression-free survival (PFS) of only 11 months.ConclusionThe constructed preoperative and postoperative models reliably predicted short-term postoperative glioma recurrence in a substantial patient cohort. The combinations risk factors and nomograms enhance the operability of personalized therapeutic strategies and care regimens. Particular emphasis should be placed on patients with recurrence within six months post-surgery, and the corresponding treatment strategies require comprehensive clinical investigation.