Strategic Timing Research Articles

Research on the Impact of Energy Supply-Side Reform on China's Economy

China is in a critical period of economic development and low-carbon clean transformation. The core of the energy production and consumption revolution is the energy supply side and energy consumption reform and innovation. As a major energy country, China has advantageous energy industries such as coal, electricity, oil and natural gas. However, in the past development of the energy industry, there were outstanding problems such as overcapacity, extensive operation, low proportion of clean energy, excessive redundant personnel in the industry, imperfect entry mechanism for high-quality talents, low supply of factors and low enthusiasm for clean energy investment. Energy reform is imminent. By studying the relevant theories and policies of the energy supply side reform and taking advantage of the strategic timing of supply-side structural reform, we will seek the ideas and strategies of China's energy supply-side reform from the improvement, study China's energy industry, energy market construction, and accelerate Reforming the energy system, developing and utilizing new energy sources, reforming China's energy sector from a supply-side perspective, releasing vitality including labor, capital, technology, and institutions, giving full play to the decisive role of the market in promoting energy supply-side reforms, and building cleanliness A low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system will promote the better and faster development of the Chinese economy.

Elections, Public Awareness, and the Efficacy of Constitutional Review

AbstractScholars have long recognized the importance of timing in political decision making. In this article, I consider the potential for the strategic timing of court decisions involving the constitutional review of statutes. As courts lack the ability to directly implement their decisions, scholars have identified an attentive public as invaluable for judicial authority. Building on this literature, I argue that the proximity of a national election increases awareness and thereby creates an environment conducive to the assertive exercise of constitutional review. I then present evidence of the electoral cycle’s effect on decision making at the German Federal Constitutional Court.

Auctions of Real Options: Security Bids, Moral Hazard, and Strategic Timing

This paper endogenizes auction timing and initiation in auctions of real options. Because bidders have information rent, a seller faces a virtual strike price higher than the actual exercise cost. She inefficiently delays the auction to encourage bidder participation and utilizes the irreversible nature of time to gain partial control over option exercises. The seller's private benefit at option exercise may restore efficient auction timing, but option exercises are always inefficiently late. When she lacks commitment to auction timing, bidders always initiate in equilibrium, resulting in earlier option exercise and higher welfare than auctions proscribing bidder initiation. Overall, auction timing modifies the distribution of the bidder valuations and has important impact on bidding strategies, auction design, and real outcomes.

Just Laws, Unjust Laws, and Theo‐Moral Responsibility in Traditional and Contemporary Civil Rights Activism

AbstractIn his 1963 response to an open letter from eight white religious leaders chastising his involvement in Birmingham, Martin Luther King, Jr. explained that civil rights activists’ blatant breaking of some laws while obeying others was the result of two types of laws: just laws and unjust laws. Civil rights activists believed they had a legal responsibility to obey just laws and a moral responsibility to disobey unjust laws. Today, new civil rights struggles continue to challenge unjust laws that shred the fabric of democracy that America espouses. Drawing upon both the Civil Rights Movement and the contemporary Movement for Black Lives, this article argues that unjust laws and practices must be broken and challenged before a just society is established. It identifies four ethical strategies for social activism: collective work and responsibility, strategic timing and economic disconnection, political mobilization, and faithful perseverance.

Fighting store brands through the strategic timing of pricing and advertising decisions

This paper investigates whether manufacturers can use the timing (sequence) of their pricing and advertising decisions to benefit from or to deter store brand (SB) introductions. We develop and solve six sequential game-theoretic models for a bilateral channel where different timing of these decisions are considered before and after the retailer introduces a store brand. Comparisons of equilibrium solutions across games show that the sequence of pricing and advertising decisions in the channel significantly impacts the profitability of a store brand entry by the retailer. Such impact depends on: (1) whether each channel member decides on pricing and advertising simultaneously or sequentially prior to the SB entry, (2) whether the timing chosen for these decisions changes following the SB introduction, and (3) the intensity of competition between the store and national brands (NB). In particular, the SB entry leads to losses for the manufacturer when the sequence of advertising and pricing decisions is kept unchanged after the SB entry even when it is much differentiated from the NB. These results offer new perspectives on the effects of store brand entry in distribution channels, and suggest that for low levels of competition intensity between the NB and the SB, the manufacturer can either prevent or benefit from the retailer’s brand given an adjustment in the sequence of the manufacturer’s decisions.

1284. Study of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms Associated with HIV-1 Set-Point Viral Load in Antiretroviral Therapy-Naïve HIV-Positive Participants of the START Study

BackgroundHIV-1 set-point viral load (SPVL) is predictive of disease progression and shows variability across HIV-1-positive (HIV+) persons. Various factors may influence SPVL including viral features, environmental exposure and host genetics. To identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with SPVL, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on a subset of participants from the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study covering a demographically diverse population. Methods. Consenting participants were antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve and SPVL was taken as log10(HIV RNA) at study entry. Genotypic data were generated on a custom content Affymetrix Axiom SNP array covering 770,558 probes. The Ensembl Gene database, assembly GRCh37.p13, was used for annotation. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify population structures, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to detect associations between SNPs and SPVL. SNPs with zero variance or minor allele frequency (MAF) ≤0.05 were removed. Results. Among the 2,544 participants, PCA showed distinct population structures with strong separation between black (n = 578) and nonblack (n = 1,966) participants, Figure 1. ANOVA was performed independently on both subsets. Two SNPs located in the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) class I region of chromosome six reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10–8) in the non-black population: rs4418214 (P = 1.74 × 10-10), and rs57989216 (P = 3.96 × 10–8), Figure 2. Two additional SNPs, rs9264942 (P = 5.99 × 10–8) and rs7356880 (P = 9.69 × 10–8), in the same region approached significance. The minor alleles of all four SNPs were associated with lower SPVL, Figure 3. While no SNPs reached genome-wide significance in the black group, we observed similar trends toward lower SPVL for both rs4418214 and rs57989216. Conclusion. In this study we confirm the association of a previously reported SNP (rs4418214) and identify a novel candidate SNP (rs57989216) associated with lower SPVL in a population of nonblack, ART-naïve HIV+ persons. Current findings suggest that the effects of these SNPs are consistent across race groups, but further studies are required to confirm this. Our results support previous findings that variation in the MHC class I region is a major host determinant of HIV-1 control. Disclosures D. D. Murray, Centre of Excellence for Health, Immunity and Infectious diseases (CHIP), Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark: Employee, Salary. J. M. Molina, Gilead: Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee. Merck: Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee. ViiV: Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee. Teva: Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee.

Antiretroviral treatment indications and adherence to the German-Austrian treatment initiation guidelines in the German ClinSurv HIV Cohort between 1999 and 2016.

The aim of the study was to assess guideline adherence to combined antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the German ClinSurv HIV Cohort and the real-life impact of the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy (START) study, to identify patients not treated as recommended by new guidelines. We used data from the multicenter ClinSurv cohort of the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) between 1999 and 2016. Inclusion criteria were people living with HIV/AIDS, ≥ 18years of age and cART naïve at the first visit (FV). Adherence was defined as starting cART within 6 months of crossing the CD4+ T cell threshold as suggested by the German-Austrian treatment guidelines. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with non-adherence. 11,817 patients met the inclusion criteria. We observed an overall adherence rate of 60%, in patients with treatment indication who started cART timely between 2002 and 2015. Adherence rate increased constantly, demonstrating a potential increase in patients, with treatment indication, starting cART within 6 months of presentation from 55% in 2008 to 94% in 2015. Patients reporting injection drug use (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.70-2.95) and patients between 18years and 39years of age at the time of their first visit (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.35-6.18) were identified as risk groups associated with non-adherence. The majority of patients below the CD4+ T cell count threshold of applicable guidelines initiated treatment within 6 months. We observed a slowly diminishing proportion of patients not starting cART timely. Delayed treatment was more frequent in patients reporting injection drug use.

Predicting and planning airport acceptance rates in metroplex systems for improved traffic flow management decision support

Efficient planning of Airport Acceptance Rates (AARs) is key for the overall efficiency of Traffic Management Initiatives such as Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). Yet, precisely estimating future flow rates is a challenge for traffic managers during daily operations as capacity depends on a number of factors/decisions with very dynamic and uncertain profiles. This paper presents a data-driven framework for AAR prediction and planning towards improved traffic flow management decision support. A unique feature of this framework is to account for operational interdependency aspects that exist in metroplex systems and affect throughput performance. Gaussian Process regression is used to create an airport capacity prediction model capable of translating weather and metroplex configuration forecasts into probabilistic arrival capacity forecasts for strategic time horizons. To process the capacity forecasts and assist the design of traffic flow management strategies, an optimization model for capacity allocation is developed. The proposed models are found to outperform currently used methods in predicting throughput performance at the New York airports. Moreover, when used to prescribe optimal AARs in GDPs, an overall delay reduction of up to 9.7% is achieved. The results also reveal that incorporating robustness in the design of the traffic flow management plan can contribute to decrease delay costs while increasing predictability.

Smoking and Accelerated Lung Function Decline in HIV-Positive Individuals: A Secondary Analysis of the START Pulmonary Substudy.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death and disability globally. Both cigarette smoking and HIV have been identified as independent risk factors for COPD. We used data from the strategic timing of antiretroviral treatment (START) Pulmonary Substudy to quantify the impact of smoking on rate of lung function decline in HIV. We included START Pulmonary Substudy participants who contributed at least 2 good quality spirometry measures during the study. Slope of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was estimated using a repeated-measures model adjusted for the treatment group (immediate vs deferred treatment arm of START), age, sex, race, baseline COPD, and region. Of 1026 START Pulmonary Substudy participants, 915 (89%) were included in this analysis. Median follow-up time was 3.9 years. Smokers and nonsmokers were similar in baseline age (median 36 years), but smokers were more likely to be white, male, and from Europe/Israel/Australia. Smokers had faster average FEV1 decline compared with nonsmokers [-38.3 mL/yr vs -25.1 mL/yr; difference of -13.2 mL/yr (95% confidence interval: -23.6 to -2.7); P = 0.013], were more likely to meet criteria for rapid FEV1 decline [7.2%-11.7% more likely (P = 0.09-P = 0.002), depending on the definition of rapid decline], and had borderline, but not statistically significant, higher incident COPD during follow-up (9.7% vs 5.8%, P = 0.06). Compared to nonsmokers, HIV-positive smokers experience faster decline in lung function. These results underscore the need for a better understanding of how to best support smoking cessation among HIV-positive populations.

A scenario decomposition algorithm for strategic time window assignment vehicle routing problems

We study the strategic decision-making problem of assigning time windows to customers in the context of vehicle routing applications that are affected by operational uncertainty. This problem, known as the Time Window Assignment Vehicle Routing Problem, can be viewed as a two-stage stochastic optimization problem, where time window assignments constitute first-stage decisions, vehicle routes adhering to the assigned time windows constitute second-stage decisions, and the objective is to minimize the expected routing costs. To that end, we develop in this paper a new scenario decomposition algorithm to solve the sampled deterministic equivalent of this stochastic model. From a modeling viewpoint, our approach can accommodate both continuous and discrete sets of feasible time window assignments as well as general scenario-based models of uncertainty for several routing-specific parameters, including customer demands and travel times, among others. From an algorithmic viewpoint, our approach can be easily parallelized, can utilize any available vehicle routing solver as a black box, and can be readily modified as a heuristic for large-scale instances. We perform a comprehensive computational study to demonstrate that our algorithm strongly outperforms all existing solution methods, as well as to quantify the trade-off between computational tractability and expected cost savings when considering a larger number of future scenarios during strategic time window assignment.

Does using applied muscle tension at strategic time points during donation reduce phlebotomist- and donor-reported vasovagal reaction rates? A three-armed randomized controlled trial.

Vasovagal reactions (VVRs) have a negative impact on donor safety and return. Applied muscle tension (AMT) increases blood pressure temporarily and has been suggested as a way to reduce donors' risk of VVRs. This study evaluated whether using AMT at three different time points during the donation procedure reduces the VVR symptoms reported by donors and the VVR reactions recorded by phlebotomists. A three-arm, multicenter, open-label randomized controlled trial was used to compare VVR symptoms and reaction rates between those practicing AMT during the entire donation (n = 244) to practicing AMT at VVR high-risk time points (n = 250) to a standard blood donation control group (n = 240). All participants were asked to drink 500 mL of water in the waiting area, and an even distribution of new and repeat donors was sought across conditions. Across all conditions, donors reported few VVR symptoms and the rate of reporting did not differ significantly across conditions. However, donors who practiced AMT at strategic time points had a significantly lower number of phlebotomist-registered VVRs in comparison to the other two study groups, with these rates not varying by sex or donor status. Greater compliance by donors with AMT instructions was observed in those asked to practice AMT at strategic time points compared to those asked to practice AMT during the entire donation. Practicing AMT at VVR high-risk time points reduces the number of phlebotomist-registered VVRs.

Measuring DNA content in live cells by fluorescence microscopy

BackgroundLive-cell fluorescence microscopy (LCFM) is a powerful tool used to investigate cellular dynamics in real time. However, the capacity to simultaneously measure DNA content in cells being tracked over time remains challenged by dye-associated toxicities. The ability to measure DNA content in single cells by means of LCFM would allow cellular stage and ploidy to be coupled with a variety of imaging directed analyses. Here we describe a widely applicable nontoxic approach for measuring DNA content in live cells by fluorescence microscopy. This method relies on introducing a live-cell membrane-permeant DNA fluorophore, such as Hoechst 33342, into the culture medium of cells at the end of any live-cell imaging experiment and measuring each cell’s integrated nuclear fluorescence to quantify DNA content. Importantly, our method overcomes the toxicity and induction of DNA damage typically caused by live-cell dyes through strategic timing of adding the dye to the cultures; allowing unperturbed cells to be imaged for any interval of time before quantifying their DNA content. We assess the performance of our method empirically and discuss adaptations that can be implemented using this technique.ResultsPresented in conjunction with cells expressing a histone 2B-GFP fusion protein (H2B-GFP), we demonstrated how this method enabled chromosomal segregation errors to be tracked in cells as they progressed through cellular division that were later identified as either diploid or polyploid. We also describe and provide an automated Matlab-derived algorithm that measures the integrated nuclear fluorescence in each cell and subsequently plots these measurements into a cell cycle histogram for each frame imaged. The algorithm’s accurate assessment of DNA content was validated by parallel flow cytometric studies.ConclusionsThis method allows the examination of single-cell dynamics to be correlated with cellular stage and ploidy in a high-throughput fashion. The approach is suitable for any standard epifluorescence microscope equipped with a stable illumination source and either a stage-top incubator or an enclosed live-cell incubation chamber. Collectively, we anticipate that this method will allow high-resolution microscopic analysis of cellular processes involving cell cycle progression, such as checkpoint activation, DNA replication, and cellular division.

Strategic timing of commercial-scale tidal energy investment

The many uncertainties in tidal energy conversion combine to form a significant barrier to raising private-sector capital. Mitigation and management of risk are essential if the industry is to attract equity investors. One way to manage the risk is through investment timing. The option to time an investment has value, which can be estimated. An analysis of an invest-vs-delay decision revealed a persistent, economicallyrational incentive to delay. Further inquiry identified a strategic rationale for delaying investment in tidal energy projects, given the uncertainty still present in the undertaking. As the largest sensitivity in the value of delay is the volatility of the investment’s expected cash flows, an investigation into the prevalent uncertainties was undertaken.&#x0D; This paper summarizes the real option valuation model. It then reports on results of a qualitative study of the predominant uncertainties facing developers and conditions that would help move the industry along. Predominant uncertainties reported revolve around technology reliability; site and resource knowledge; prospects for buildout; predictability of government policy and supports; prospects of off-take agreements; and supply chain capacity and costs. These are related back to the variables in the real option pricing model. The model is relevant for companies wishing to systematically evaluate timing options and communicate project value to the investment community. It can also be used by governments to evaluate the design of policies and financial supports in a way that is consistent with the priorities of financial markets.

Strategic Timing of Hedge Fund Starts

We examine whether investor sentiment affects hedge fund companies’ decision to start new funds. We find significantly more fund inceptions in hot markets than in cold markets. Moreover, funds opened in hot markets exhibit weaker subsequent performance, higher risk of fraud, and shorter survival. Further evidence indicates that more rookie managers open funds in hot markets, and they “contribute” more to the subsequent underperformance relative to seasoned managers. Investor clientele appears to vary with market conditions, and we find a dumb-money effect for hot-market incepted funds. Overall, inceptions due to high investor sentiment are not in the best interest of investors.

Resilience in Children: Developmental Perspectives.

Advances in developmental resilience science are highlighted with commentary on implications for pediatric systems that aspire to promote healthy development over the life course. Resilience science is surging along with growing concerns about the consequences of adverse childhood experiences on lifelong development. Resilience is defined as the capacity of a system to adapt successfully to challenges that threaten the function, survival, or future development of the system. This definition is scalable across system levels and across disciplines, applicable to resilience in a person, a family, a health care system, a community, an economy, or other systems. Robust findings on resilience in childhood underscore the importance of exposure dose; fundamental adaptive systems embedded in the lives of individuals and their interactions with other systems; developmental timing; and the crucial role of healthcare practitioners and educators as well as family caregivers in nurturing resilience on the “front lines” of lived childhood experience. Resilience science suggests that human resilience is common, dynamic, generated through myriad interactions of multiple systems from the biological to the sociocultural, and mutable given strategic targeting and timing. Implications for pediatric practice and training are discussed.

Strike while the rebate is hot: Savvy consumers and strategic technology adoption timing

The California Solar Initiative (CSI) rebate program disbursed more than two billion dollars in incentives to install solar photovoltaics (PV) over roughly a decade while “stepping-down” rebate levels as installed capacity goals were reached. The exact dates (i.e., timing) of the stepdown events were not known, yet recent analyses find evidence of an “announcement effect” wherein consumer adoption is “pulled-forward” across these stepdown events. We analyze unique data from our recent household-level survey on the decision-making process for 194 of these very consumers within a narrow window of eight CSI rebate stepdown events, comparing the decision-making processes of pulled-forward consumers to their counterparts that adopt just after a rebate stepdown.We find evidence that a subset of pre-stepdown adopters engage in more “savvy” decision-making behaviors from their post-stepdown counterparts, including strategic adoption timing. Given these behavioral differences, we conclude that future analyses should carefully consider aspects of individual decision-making processes as potential confounders and control for them if possible. Experience is identified as a potential pathway through which this non-negligible subset of adopters may gain the ability to execute savvy decision-making behaviors; future research should assess the degree to which policy implementation can explicitly leverage this pathway.

Strategic Timing of Investment over the Business Cycle: Machine Replacement in the US Rental Industry

Abstract We analyze a data set containing rental revenues, maintenance costs, and sale prices of five different types of rental machines to econometrically estimate key relationships needed to implement a dynamic programming model of the optimal timing of replacement of rental equipment owned by a large multi-location firm in the equipment rental industry. The model reveals significant potential to improve rental company profitability by improving the strategic timing of equipment replacement. The gains from the optimal replacement strategy come from exploiting seasonal variation in rental demand and the timing of the business cycle due to their effects on rental revenues and the cost of replacement. For some machines we find the optimal replacement strategy is procyclical, but for others we find that a countercyclical replacement strategy –- where replacements are concentrated in slow periods of the business cycle –- can significantly increase firm profits.

Accelerating strategic fit or venture emergence: Different paths adopted by corporate accelerators

Corporate accelerators (CAs) are a fast-emerging form of corporate engagement with startups. Equating them with independent startup accelerators and/or corporate venturing limits our understanding of how and why corporations run CA programs and to what end. In this inductive grounded theory study, we explore how corporations design and run CAs and to what effect. This study of four CAs reveals that corporations manage accelerators via one of two distinct processes: namely, accelerating strategic fit or accelerating venture emergence. Our inductive models of these corporate acceleration processes provide new insights into how CAs operate within corporations. Strategic posture and investment time horizon influence corporations' choice of acceleration path and their identification of potential ventures for acceleration. Our study deconstructs what comprises the core corporate acceleration processes and explains how the two pathways result in distinct outcomes—nurturing innovations or nurturing ecosystems. We believe these findings can open up rich research opportunities for understanding how corporations engage with entrepreneurial ventures to enhance their entrepreneurialness.

Strategic Timing and Pricing In On-Demand Platforms

This paper optimizes dynamic pricing and real-time resource allocation policies for a platform facing non- transferable capacity, stochastic demand-capacity imbalances, and strategic customers with heterogeneous price- and time-sensitivities. We characterize the optimal mechanism, which specifies a dynamic menu of prices and allocations. Service timing and pricing are used strategically to: (i) dynamically manage demand- capacity imbalances, and (ii) provide discriminated service levels. The balance between these two objectives depends on customer heterogeneity and customers’ time-sensitivities. The optimal policy may feature strategic idleness (deliberately rejecting incoming requests for discrimination), late service prioritization (clearing the queue of delayed customers) and deliberate late service rejection (focusing on incoming demand by rationing capacity for delayed customers). Surprisingly, the price charged to time-sensitive customers is not increasing with demand — high demand may trigger lower prices. By dynamically adjusting a menu of prices and service levels, the optimal mechanism increases profits significantly, as compared to dynamic pricing and static screening benchmarks. We also suggest a less information-intensive mechanism that is history-independent but fine-tunes the menu with incoming demand; this easier-to-implement mechanism yields close-to-optimal outcomes.

Biofortification of Cereals With Foliar Selenium and Iodine Could Reduce Hypothyroidism.

Concurrent selenium and iodine deficiencies are widespread, in both developing and developed countries. Salt iodisation is insufficient to ensure global iodine adequacy, with an estimated one-third of humanity at risk of hypothyroidism and associated iodine deficiency disorders (IDD). Agronomic biofortification of food crops, especially staples such as cereals, which are consumed widely, may be an effective component of a food system strategy to reduce selenium and iodine malnutrition. Iodine and selenium are needed in the optimum intake range for thyroid health, hence joint biofortification makes sense for areas deficient in both. Foliar application is recommended as the most effective, efficient, least wasteful method for selenium and iodine biofortification. Currently, selenium is easier to increase in grain, fruit, and storage roots by this method, being more phloem mobile than iodine. Nevertheless, strategic timing (around heading is usually best), use of surfactants and co-application with potassium nitrate can increase the effectiveness of foliar iodine biofortification. More research is needed on iodine transporters and iodine volatilisation in plants, bioavailability of iodine in biofortified plant products, and roles for nano selenium and iodine in biofortification. For adoption, farmers need an incentive such as access to a premium functional food market, a subsidy or increased grain yield resulting from possible synergies with co-applied fertilisers, enhancers, fungicides, and insecticides. Further research is needed to inform these aspects of foliar agronomic biofortification.