Strategic Climate Research Articles

End of the continental century

It is natural at the end of the century to look back at trends and developments over the last hundred years. That this process should coincide with a dramatic period of strategic change highlights the similarities between the end of this century ∼and the last. Looking at the changes in strategic climate, Brigadier Robert Fry here points out the increasing polarisation of maritime and continental strategies at the end of the 19th century, epitomised in the works of Alfred Thayer Mohan and Sir Halford Mackinder. While Mohan's work was characterised by a retrospective description of already defunct maritime power, Mackinder was far more forward looking in his under‐standing of the increasing importance of technological developments in land warfare. Thus as one wrote the obituary to the ‘Columbian era’, the other introduced the ‘Continental Century’. With the triumph of liberal democracy as perhaps the crowning development of the latter part of this century, and the attendant dominance of market economics, the strategic landscape has changed yet again to one of globalisation and interdependence, requiring expeditionary forces and secure home, defences rather than the continental strategies of yesteryear. This then, Brigadier Fry concludes, is the end of the Continental Century, requiring a maritime national strategy to meet the challenges of a new Columbian age.

Problem solving in health services organizations.

Health services organization managers at all levels are constantly confronted with problems. Conditions encountered that initiate the need for problem solving are opportunity, threat, crisis, deviation, and improvement. A general problem-solving model presenting an orderly process by which managers can approach this important task is described. An example of the model applied to the current strategic climate is presented.

Self-Censorship in Public Discourse

Uncertainty about what motivates “senders” of public messages leads “receivers” to “read between the lines” to discern the sender's deepest commitments. Anticipating this, senders “write between the lines,” editing their expressions so as to further their own ends. I examine how this interactive process of inference and deceit affects the quality and extent of public deliberations on sensitive issues. A principle conclusion is that genuine moral discourse on difficult social issues can become impossible when the risks of upsetting some portion of one's audience are too great. Reliance on euphemism and platitude should be expected in this strategic climate. Groups may embark on a tragic course of action, believed by many at the outset to be ill-conceived, but that has become impossible to criticize.

Measuring the Peace Dividend in the United Kingdom

The changing strategic climate in Europe has led to considerable speculation about major cuts in military spending. This paper examines the economic implications of such reductions in military spending for the UK. The international economic and strategic context is discussed and then a multi-sectoral macro-economic model is used to evaluate the impact of cutting UK defence spending. The simulation results show that a reduction in military expenditure to one-half of its 1992 level by the year 2000, with the released `peace dividend' allocated to other government current and capital expenditures, would lead to a reduction in unemployment of 0.52 million and an increase in output above base by 1.84%. While these results do hide potential problems at industry, company, region and local community levels, it is argued that these problems of transition are both smaller and less difficult to deal with than those experienced in the past. The restructuring of the arms industry is already taking place and the required local adjustments are no worse than those experienced by traditional manufacturing industry over the past decade and, with careful planning, could be made painless. Overall, it is clear that with sensible adjustment policies the reduction of military spending provides an opportunity for improved economic performance.

Towards better strategic management

Strategic management is concerned with determining the long-term goals on an enterprise and deciding on the most appropriate course of action to achieve them, considering changing environmental conditions, resources available and risk attitudes. The deliberate practice of strategic management is still regrettably rare and rudimentary despite wide recognition of the threats to corporate survival under conditions of rapid change. Better use must be made of the tools of business planning and many more managers skilled in strategy development will be required. The purpose of this article is to discuss some of the difficulties in inculcating a strategic climate within an organization and to propose some approaches for improvement.