Storm Track Research Articles

Paleo aridity in the Levant driven by a strong North Atlantic latitudinal surface temperature gradient and present-day relevance

The mechanisms underlying the current greenhouse gas (GHG) forced decline in Mediterranean rainfall remain a matter of debate. To inform our understanding of the current and projected drying, we examined extended arid intervals in the late Quaternary, Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Levant indicated by substantial salt deposits in a Dead Sea sediment core covering the past 220 kyr. These arid events occurred during interglacials, when the Earth was at perihelion to the sun in boreal fall and during glacial-interglacial transitions, associated with icesheet melting. Climate models forced with realistic late Quaternary insolation variations show that when the Earth is closest to the Sun in boreal fall, the North Atlantic latitudinal surface temperature gradient in the winter intensifies. In response, the overlying midlatitude North Atlantic jet stream and the extratropical storm track move poleward while sea-level pressure rises in the subtropics. These changes bring about a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track and a decline in rainfall over the entire basin. During glacial-interglacial transitions, meltwater from continental icesheets forced abrupt subpolar North Atlantic cooling. This also strengthened the latitudinal surface temperature gradient, likely causing similar atmospheric response and aridity in the Mediterranean. There is a strong resemblance between this paleoclimate scenario and the climatic changes corresponding to the present and projected GHG drying of the EM. Hence, the late Quaternary palaeohydrology of the Dead Sea indicates an important North Atlantic centered response to external forcing, which leads to Mediterranean drying and is relevant in the present.

Coastal lake sediments from Arctic Svalbard suggest colder summers are stormier.

The Arctic is rapidly losing its sea ice cover while the region warms faster than anywhere else on Earth. As larger areas become ice-free for longer, winds strengthen and interact more with open waters. Ensuing higher waves also increase coastal erosion and flooding, threatening communities and releasing permafrost carbon. However, the future trajectory of these changes remains poorly understood as instrumental observations and geological archives remain rare and short. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap by presenting a continuous Holocene-length reconstruction of Arctic eolian activity using coastal lake sediments from Svalbard. Exposed to both polar Easterlies and Westerly storm tracks, sheltered by a bedrock barrier, and subjected to little post-glacial uplift, our study site provides a stable baseline to assess Holocene changes in the dominant wind systems of the Barents Sea region. To do so with high precision, we rely on multiple independent lines of proxy evidence for wind-blown sediment input. Our reconstructions reveal quasi-cyclic summer wind maxima during regional cold periods, and challenge the view that a warmer and less icy future Arctic will be stormier.

Estimating Rainfall Anomalies with IMERG Satellite Data: Access via the IPE Web Application

This study assesses the possibilities of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG-GPM) to estimate extreme rainfall anomalies. A web application, the IMERG Precipitation Extractor (IPE), was developed which allows for the querying, visualization, and downloading of time-series satellite precipitation data for points, watersheds, country extents, and digitized areas. The tool supports different temporal resolutions ranging from 30 min to 1 week and facilitates advanced analyses such as anomaly detection and storm tracking, an important component for climate change study. To validate the IMERG precipitation data for anomaly estimation over a 22-year period (2001 to 2022), the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was calculated and compared with RAI data from 2360 NOAA stations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), considering both dry and wet climate regions. In the dry region, the results showed an average correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.94, a percentage relative bias (PRB) of −22.32%, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.96, a mean bias ratio (MBR) of 0.74, a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.80, and a Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.52. In the wet region, the average CC of 0.93, PRB of 24.82%, RMSE of 0.96, MBR of 0.79, NSE of 0.80, and KGE of 0.18 were computed. Median RAI indices from both the IMERG and NOAA indicated an increase in rainfall intensity and frequency since 2010, highlighting growing concerns about climate change. The study suggests that IMERG data can serve as a valuable alternative for modeling extreme rainfall anomalies in data-scarce areas, noting its possibilities, limitations, and uncertainties. The IPE web application also offers a platform for extending research beyond CONUS and advocating for further global climate change studies.

A case study of offshore evaporation ducts in northeastern Taiwan during summer time

Over the ocean northeast of Taiwan, the summer is hot and the air-sea interaction is strong, so it is easy to produce various kinds of atmospheric duct phenomena due to the rapid change of temperature and water vapor in the vertical direction. Among the various atmospheric duct phenomena, Evaporation Duct (ED) occurs frequently and for a long time, which often affects electromagnetic wave transmission, causing errors in communication and search radar signals, and is the most valuable for research. In this study, we used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with a Storm Tracker (ST) which is a mini meteorological observation device to measure air temperature, pressure, and relative humidity near the ocean to get the Evaporation Duct Height (EDH) of Yilan in northeastern Taiwan in the summer of 2022. Through the 5-m vertical resolution observation, we understand the atmospheric factors affecting the EDH. Throughout the summer observation period, various types of atmospheric ducts also manifest in the northeastern region of Taiwan. In the numerical simulation, we use the WRF model with two sets of different boundary layer parameterizations, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Yon-Sei University (YSU), and import the simulation results into the Paulus-Jeske (P-J) ED model to compute the EDH. It was found that the EDH calculated by WRF using the MYJ boundary layer parameterization imported into the P-J ED model was closer to the observed results. This method can forecast the EDH in the northeastern Taiwan sea area, which is valuable for application.

Centennial‐Scale Recovery of the North Atlantic Summer Storm Track Weakening

AbstractThe North Atlantic storm track plays a critical role in setting the regional weather and climate over Western Europe. In response to anthropogenic emissions, the summer North Atlantic storm track has weakened in recent decades and is projected to continue weakening by the end of this century. In light of growing efforts to mitigate climate change, it is crucial to assess how reversible the CO2‐induced storm track weakening is. Here, I show that under CO2 removal scenarios, the recovery timescale of the storm track is more than double its weakening period. It is found that due to a prolonged high‐latitude warming, postponing the execution of mitigation policies beyond doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to a centennial‐scale recovery of the storms. Given the impacts of weakening summer storms on weather and extreme events, the delayed recovery of the storms might have broader regional consequences for Western Europe.

Development of a Two-Step EOF Statistical Postprocessing Algorithm to Identify Patterns of Systematic Error and Variance within GEFSv12 Reforecasts

Abstract Analysis of seasonally varying signals of model error biases, as well as the diagnosis of space–time patterns of synoptic error, here is accomplished through the development of a statistical postprocessing algorithm based on time-extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOFs) built on patterns of variance. This work analyzes GEFSv12 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) model error against ERA5 reanalysis data. The mean-square error variance between GEFSv12 reforecast and ERA5 grows rapidly after day 7 of a forecast and continues to increase through the end of the 16-day forecast period. At lead time 16, the largest variance occurs in mid- to high-latitude oceanic storm tracks. Variance is highest during hemispheric winter when baroclinic energy is abundant. The seasonal cycle of error shows largest anomalies in the high latitudes during hemispheric winter. After running the titular two-step, space–time EEOF algorithm, a standardized spatial eigenspectrum shows that eigenvalues increase at longer lead times after decreasing in the medium range, demonstrating that the algorithm extracts large-scale signals of systematic error in the long range. Leading wintertime space–time eigenmode pairs include high-latitude blocking structures and Rossby wave trains. Results suggest that the large-scale systematic errors in GEFSv12 Z200 initiate in part from inaccurate representations of phase speeds of atmospheric waves in the polar jet.

Cause and Characteristics of Changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems within a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Abstract Changes in the frequency and intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are assessed using convection-permitting regional climate model simulations. We present a novel classification method that relates MCSs to the magnitude of their large-scale forcing environments to better understand the changing nature of MCSs across different forcing environments in a possible future climate scenario. Overall, the annual frequency, intensity, and amount of precipitation associated with MCSs are projected to increase for broad portions of the eastern conterminous United States (CONUS). Furthermore, changes in the characteristics of MCSs show larger, longer-lived, and faster MCSs particularly over the Midwest and Southeast. Seasonal examination of this response reveals a robust intensification of March–May (MAM) MCSs. The higher frequency of MAM MCSs are found to occur in weakly forced synoptic environments. Increased rainfall amounts are explained by an intensification of MCSs due to changing thermodynamics and enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture transport into the central CONUS by the North Atlantic Subtropical High. Differences in mid-latitude storm tracks are favorable towards the enhanced development of MCSs associated with strong baroclinic forcing within the Midwest and Northern Plains, but are only realized in the presence of strong changes in lower-tropospheric moisture transport. Overall, these results suggest a shift in the behavior of MAM MCSs that more closely corresponds to the behavior of June–August (JJA) MCSs in the historical climate. The increased occurrence of MCSs in weakly forced environments, particularly in MAM, deserves further investigation.

Influence of CyGNSS L2 wind data on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts in the coupled HAFS/HYCOM system

This study examines the influence of NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CyGNSS) Level 2-derived 10 m (near-surface) wind speed over the ocean on analyses and forecasts within the NOAA operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). HAFS is coupled with a regional configuration of the HYCOM ocean model. The primary advantages of data from the CyGNSS constellation of satellites include higher revisit frequency compared to polar-orbiting satellites, and the availability of reliable wind observations over the ocean surface during convective precipitation. CyGNSS data are available early in the life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) when aerial reconnaissance observations are not available. We focus on TCs whose forecasts were initialized when the TC was a depression or tropical storm. In the present study, we find first, that assimilation of CyGNSS near-surface winds improves storm track, intensity, and structure statistics in the analysis and early in the forecast, for many cases. Second, we find that assimilation of CyGNSS observations provides additional insights into the evolution of air-sea interaction in intensifying TCs: In effect, the ocean responds in the coupled model to modifications in the initial 10 m wind field, thereby impacting forecasts of intensity, storm structure, and sea surface height, as demonstrated by two case studies. We also discuss some forecasts where assimilating CYGNSS appears to degrade performance for either intensity or structure.

Multiday Soil Moisture Persistence and Atmospheric Predictability Resulting From Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems

AbstractSkill in predicting where damaging convective storms will occur is limited, particularly in the tropics. In principle, near‐surface soil moisture (SM) patterns from previous storms provide an important source of skill at the mesoscale, yet these structures are often short‐lived (hours to days), due to both soil drying processes and the impact of new storms. Here, we use satellite observations over the Sahel to examine how the strong, locally negative, SM‐precipitation feedback there impacts rainfall patterns over subsequent days. The memory of an initial storm pattern decays rapidly over the first 3–4 days, but a weak signature is still detected in surface observations 10–20 days later. The wet soil suppresses rainfall over the storm track for the first 2–8 days, depending on aridity regime. Whilst the negative SM feedback initially enhances mesoscale rainfall predictability, the transient nature of SM likely limits forecast skill on sub‐seasonal time scales.

Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends

Southern Hemisphere (SH) storminess has increased in the satellite era and recent work suggests comprehensive climate models significantly underestimate the trend. Here, we revisit this reanalysis-model trend discrepancy to better understand the mechanisms underlie it. A comprehensive like-for-like analysis shows reanalysis trends exhibit large uncertainty, and coupled climate model simulations exhibit weaker trends than most but not all reanalyses. However, simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) exhibit significantly greater storminess trends, particularly in the South Pacific, implying SST trend discrepancies in coupled simulations impact storminess trends. Using pacemaker simulations that correct Southern Ocean and tropical east Pacific SST trend discrepancies, we show that storminess trends in coupled simulations are underestimated because they do not capture the enhanced storminess resulting from Southern Ocean cooling and La-Nina-like teleconnection trends. Our findings emphasize large reanalysis uncertainty in SH circulation trends and the impact of regional SST trend discrepancies on circulation trends.

Southern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks Respond Differently to Low and High CO2 Forcings

Abstract In the Southern Hemisphere, Earth system models project an intensification of winter storm tracks by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies using idealized models showed that storm track intensity saturates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the intensification of the winter storm tracks might not continue further with increasing greenhouse gases. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere to increasing CO2 from two to eight times preindustrial concentrations in more realistic Earth system models. We find that at high CO2 levels (beyond 4×CO2), winter storm tracks no longer exhibit an intensification across the extratropics. Instead, they shift poleward, weakening the storm tracks at lower midlatitudes and strengthening at higher midlatitudes. By analyzing the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget, the nonlinear storm-track response to an increase in CO2 levels in the lower midlatitudes is found to stem from a scale-dependent conversion of eddy available potential energy to EKE. Specifically, in the lower midlatitudes, this energy conversion acts to oppositely change the EKE of long and short scales at low CO2 levels, but at high CO2 levels, it mostly reduces the EKE of shorter scales, resulting in a poleward shift of the storms. Furthermore, we identify a “tug of war” between the upper and lower temperature changes as the primary driver of the nonlinear-scale-dependent EKE response in the lower midlatitudes. Our results suggest that in the highest emission scenarios beyond the twenty-first century, the storm tracks’ response may differ in magnitude and latitudinal distribution from projected changes by 2100. Significance Statement The Southern Hemisphere winter storm track is projected to intensify by the end of the century, with the most significant intensification occurring in the higher midlatitudes. However, we show that the intensification is not a linear function of the radiative forcing associated with increasing CO2 levels. In fact, our study shows a poleward shift at very high CO2 levels, with the storm track moving southward. This suggests that the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track may require time-sensitive adaptation strategies, as the impacts of global warming on the storm track may not be a linear function of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Comment on “Anticyclonic Suppression of the North Pacific Transient Eddy Activity in Midwinter” by Okajima et al.

AbstractAtmospheric energetics is frequently used to diagnose how different atmospheric processes contribute to the development of transient storm track activity. Okajima et al. (2024), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl106932 developed an ad hoc method to separate the contributions of cyclones and anticyclones to the energetics using the value of the curvature of the instantaneous local wind. Here, using simple examples in which the physics is exactly known, it is shown that cyclones embedded within a constant zonal flow exhibit large regions with anticyclonic curvature despite the absence of any real anticyclones. Using the method of Okajima et al., a large fraction of the eddy kinetic energy is erroneously attributed to being associated with anticyclones. Furthermore, the fraction that is misattributed varies substantially with changes in the background wind speed. It is concluded that using the curvature to separate energetics contributions from cyclones and anticyclones is not likely to be physically meaningful.

Spatio-temporal averaging of jets obscures the reinforcement of baroclinicity by latent heating

Abstract. Latent heating modifies the jet stream by modifying the vertical geostrophic wind shear, thereby altering the potential for baroclinic development. Hence, correctly representing diabatic effects is important for modelling the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and variability. However, the direct effects of diabatic heating remain poorly understood. For example, there is no consensus on the effect of latent heating on the cross-jet temperature contrast. We show that this disagreement is attributable to the choice of spatio-temporal averaging. Jet representations relying on averaged wind tend to have the strongest latent heating on the cold flank of the jet, thus weakening the cross-jet temperature contrast. In contrast, jet representations reflecting the two-dimensional instantaneous wind field have the strongest latent heating on the warm flank of the jet. Furthermore, we show that latent heating primarily occurs on the warm flank of poleward directed instantaneous jets, which is the case for all storm tracks and seasons.

A Radar-Based Methodology for Aerosol Plume Identification and Characterisation on the South African Highveld

Biomass burning on the South African Highveld annually injects substantial amounts of aerosols and trace gases into the atmosphere, impacting the global radiative balance, cloud microphysics, and regional air quality. These aerosols are transported as plumes over long distances, posing challenges to existing in situ and satellite-based monitoring techniques because of their limited spatial and temporal resolution, particularly in environments with low-level sources. This study aims to develop and validate a novel radar-based methodology to detect, track, and characterise aerosol plumes, addressing the limitations of existing in situ and satellite monitoring techniques. Using high-resolution volumetric reflectivity data from an S-band radar in Pretoria, South Africa, a traditional storm tracking algorithm is adapted to improve plume identification. Case studies of plume events in June and August 2013 demonstrate the radar’s effectiveness in distinguishing lower vertical profiles and reduced reflectivity of plumes compared with storm echoes. The adapted algorithm successfully tracked the spatial and temporal evolution of the plumes, revealing their short-lived nature. Results indicate that radar-derived geospatial characteristics have the potential to contribute significantly to understanding the impacts of plumes on local air quality. These findings underscore the critical need for high spatio-temporal resolution data to support effective air quality management and inform policy development in regions affected by biomass burning.

A Method for Interpreting the Role of Parameterized Turbulence on Global Metrics in the Community Earth System Model

AbstractThe parameterization of subgrid‐scale processes such as boundary layer (PBL) turbulence introduces uncertainty in Earth System Model (ESM) results. This uncertainty can contribute to or exacerbate existing biases in representing key physical processes. This study analyzes the influence of tunable parameters in an experimental version of the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBBX) scheme. CLUBB is the operational PBL parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community ESM version 2 (CESM2). We perform the Morris one‐at‐a‐time (MOAT) parameter sensitivity analysis using short‐term (3‐day), initialized hindcasts of CAM6‐CLUBBX with 24 unique initial conditions. Several input parameters modulating vertical momentum flux appear most influential for various regionally‐averaged quantities, namely surface stress and shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF). These parameter sensitivities have a spatial dependence, with parameters governing momentum flux most influential in regions of high vertical wind shear (e.g., the mid‐latitude storm tracks). We next evaluate several experimental 20‐year simulations of CAM6‐CLUBBX with targeted parameter perturbations. We find that parameter perturbations produce similar physical mechanisms in both short‐term and long‐term simulations, but these physical responses can be muted due to nonlinear feedbacks manifesting over time scales longer than 3 days, thus causing differences in how output metrics respond in the long‐term simulations. Analysis of turbulent fluxes in CLUBBX indicates that the influential parameters affect vertical fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum, providing physical pathways for the sensitivities identified in this study.

Household Evacuation Decision Making During Simultaneous Events: Hurricane Ida and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Protective action decisions are complex and require households to consider a variety of factors including hazard risks, household characteristics, location, and experience. Previous research has examined these decisions in the context of a single hazard; however, it is also necessary to consider scenarios whereby two coupled hazards pose simultaneous risks. This paper examines the decision-making of households when making evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions during two simultaneous events: the 2021 Hurricane Ida and the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey data gathered from six parishes eight months after the storm were used to analyze risk perception tradeoffs and protective action decisions of households before Hurricane Ida made landfall. The results indicate that higher perceived risks of the hurricane causing injury or death, being vaccinated, having a higher income, having children residing in the home, and having previous experience of evacuating increased the odds of evacuating. Likewise, variables such as higher perceived risks related to being hospitalized or killed by COVID-19, being elderly, and being located further away from the storm track all decreased the likelihood of a household undertaking evacuation. The findings of this study improve understanding of how households consider competing risks during simultaneous hazard events, which in turn can help inform strategies for managing future disaster events involving multiple hazards and risks.

Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world

The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current climate change and projection of future trends is important for planning adaptation measures and for informing international efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Identification of hazards and risks may be used to assess vulnerability, determine limits to adaptation, and enhance resilience to climate change. This article highlights how recent research programs are continuing to elucidate current processes and advance projections across major climate systems and identifies remaining knowledge gaps. Key findings include projected future increases in monsoon rainfall, resulting from a changing balance between the rainfall-reducing effect of aerosols and rainfall-increasing GHGs; a strengthening of the storm track in the North Atlantic; an increase in the fraction of precipitation that falls as rain at both poles; an increase in the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, along with changes in ENSO teleconnections to North America and Europe; and an increase in the frequency of hazardous hot-humid extremes. These changes have the potential to increase risks to both human and natural systems. Nevertheless, these risks may be reduced via urgent, science-led adaptation and resilience measures and by reductions in GHGs.

Influence of a local diabatic heating source on the midlatitude circulation

AbstractDiabatic heating due to latent heat release in the storm tracks plays an important but poorly understood role in the midlatitude circulation. To examine how localised diabatic heating affects the circulation, a dry model is used to apply midtropospheric perturbations to the radiative‐equilibrium temperature profile to which the model is relaxed. This allows us to isolate the one‐way causal influence of diabatic heating on the circulation without feedbacks of the circulation onto the heating. By applying switch‐on perturbations at various latitudes, the mechanisms by which an equilibrated state is reached are examined. In all cases, the equilibrated circulation exhibits a dynamically insensitive jet structure with eddies maintaining a region of self‐concentrated baroclinicity, latitudinally shifted away from the heating perturbation. However, the initial response is generally very different. For heating poleward of the jet, there is an initial thermal‐wind adjustment and weakened eddy heat fluxes, followed later by weakened eddy momentum fluxes that maintain an equilibrated equatorward jet shift. For heating equatorward of the jet, the evolution is more complex with an initial strengthening of the eddy heat fluxes that dominantly balance the imposed heating, as well as a weakening of the Hadley cell. Further, the initial thermal‐wind adjustment immediately modifies the subtropical critical lines and eddy momentum fluxes that encourage an 15° poleward propagation from the Subtropics to Midlatitudes, yielding an equilibrated poleward jet shift. The overall determining factor in balancing the imposed heating at equilibration is the local climatological heat budget: if the climatological eddy heat fluxes locally warm, such as in mid‐to‐high latitudes, then this effect weakens, whereas if the climatological overturning circulation locally warms, such as in the Subtropics, then this effect weakens. The insensitivity of the equilibrated jet profile to the imposed heating is remarkable given the maintenance mechanisms vary drastically according to heating latitude.

Convergence and divergence of storm waves induced by multi-scale currents: Observations and coupled wave-current modeling

Current effects on waves (CEW) are among the most intricate physical processes in wave evolution. In this study, we used a coupled wave-tide-circulation model for the Northwest Atlantic to investigate current effects on storm waves during Hurricane Igor in 2010. Validated with extensive buoy and altimeter data, the inclusion of CEW in the model significantly improves the accuracy in simulating significant wave heights (Hs) by up to 21.3% for a wave buoy. Storm waves experience significant temporal and spatial modulation by multi-scale currents. Storm-driven currents have the most pronounced impact to the right of the storm track, which typically align with wave propagation and reduce Hs by up to 12.1%. The subsequent near-inertial oscillations induce temporal fluctuations of wave convergence and divergence at near-inertial frequencies, which also occurs in regions with strong tidal currents but at tidal frequencies. Furthermore, storm waves are modulated by the Gulf Stream, Labrador Current and associated mesoscale eddies. Overall, these multi-scales yield strong effects on storm waves (Hs > 3.0 m), significantly modulating Hs (−25.2%–+55.4%) and mean wave periods (−14.9%–+15.7%). The mean wave energy power shows more significant modulation by multi-scale currents, reflecting the combined effects of changing wave states and current-induced transport of wave energy. CEW are governed by the interactive dynamic and kinematic effects. The relative wind effect is the primary mechanism for lower storm waves by reducing energy input to waves and influences downstream wave states. Among kinematic effects, current-induced wave refraction typically plays a dominant role in redistributing wave energy. This study systematically quantified the modulation of storm waves by multi-scale currents and revealed the underlying mechanisms, providing a comprehensive understanding of extreme wave states under coupled ocean dynamics.

Breaking Rossby waves drive extreme precipitation in the world’s arid regions

More than a third of the world’s population lives in drylands and is disproportionately at risk from hydrometeorological hazards such as drought and flooding. While weather systems governing precipitation formation in humid regions have been widely explored, our understanding of the atmospheric processes generating precipitation in arid regions remains fragmented at best. Here we show, using a variety of precipitation datasets, that Rossby wave breaking is a key atmospheric driver of precipitation in arid regions worldwide. Rossby wave breaking contributes up to 90% of daily precipitation extremes and up to 80% of total precipitation amounts in arid regions equatorward and downstream of the midlatitude storm tracks. The relevance of Rossby wave breaking for precipitation increases with increasing land aridity. Contributions of wave breaking to precipitation dominate in the poleward and westward portions of arid subtropical regions during the cool season. Our findings imply that Rossby wave breaking plays a crucial role in projections and uncertainties of future precipitation changes in societally vulnerable regions that are exposed to both freshwater shortages and flood hazards.