Storm-relative Inflow Research Articles

Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions, and Convective Systems in Cases of Significant Tornadoes and Hail

Abstract Though discrete supercells are usually emphasized in severe weather forecasting, hazard production is often preceded by their interaction with external features. Past studies have examined the impacts of cell mergers, boundaries, other supercells, convective systems, etc., but usually in isolation. Here, we investigate 230 significant tornadoes, 246 significant hail events, and 191 null cases across the United States using WSR-88D data. We find that in over 90% of cases, supercells that produced significant hazards were accompanied by external features. These features varied between hazards; for example, hailstorms were more frequently near boundaries than tornadic storms. That said, the positions of these features with respect to the storm (and storm-relative inflow) distinguished between hazard potential and type. For example, tornadic storms were predominantly on the more-unstable side of a boundary, while non-tornadic storms and hailstorms were on the less-unstable side. Similarly, tornadic storms had more cells in their rear flanks than forward flanks, while hailstorms had more cells in their forward flanks than rear flanks. Although these conditions were observed regardless of the background environment, they were affected by certain variables in the vertical profile, especially in tornadic cases. Namely, when storm-relative inflow was stronger and lifting condensation level (LCL) was lower, tornadic storms were accompanied by more rear-flank cells that were closer to the storm, more directly opposite the storm-relative inflow, for a longer period of time. We propose that these interactions likely modulate hazard potential, in ways that are not accounted for in traditional environmental parameter-based forecasting.

Polarimetric Radar Observations of a Long-Lived Supercell and Associated Tornadoes on 10–11 December 2021

Abstract We present environmental and polarimetric radar observations of a long-lived December supercell that tracked approximately 750 km from Arkansas to northern Kentucky. The storm was associated with two long-track EF4 tornadoes, one of which was among the longest-tracked tornadoes recorded in the United States. The supercell’s life cycle is documented from 2000 UTC 10 to 0700 UTC 11 December 2021, using data from five operational polarimetric weather radars. After convection initiation in central Arkansas, it took nearly 4 h for a supercell to develop. Afterward, the storm’s ZDR column and arc became anomalously large leading up to genesis of the first EF4 tornado. During this time, the storm’s environment had moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong deep-layer shear. A cell interaction at about 0200 UTC disrupted the supercell updraft, weakening the ZDR arc and column, and initiating the largest radar-implied hailfall event observed with this storm. The remnant circulation associated with the first EF4 tornado did not fully dissipate, and it appeared to merge with the low-level mesocyclone on the nose of a rear-flank downdraft surge likely initiated by the hailfall. It is hypothesized that this merger was important to the intensification of the storm’s second EF4 tornado, which lasted nearly 3 h and traveled approximately 267 km. During the second EF4 tornado the storm experienced decreasing CAPE and increasing storm relative helicity. Increasing interactions with other cells eventually weakened the storm, and its original updraft was obscured before the storm’s remnants dissipated in northern Kentucky. Significance Statement In December 2021, a long-lived supercell thunderstorm produced two long-track, violent tornadoes, including one that produced historic damage across western Kentucky. Radar observations indicate that, once the storm became a supercell, its updraft became anomalously large relative to similar storms studied prior. Simultaneously its storm-relative inflow strengthened markedly, supporting the first long-lived tornado. Interactions with a developing thunderstorm disrupted the supercell’s updraft, leading to hail fallout and updraft weakening. The remnant circulation associated with the first strong tornado merged with the supercell’s updraft and became a rotation source for the second long-track tornado, which persisted for nearly 3 h. Eventually interactions with other thunderstorms weakened the supercell.

Discriminating between Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Supercells: A New Hodograph Technique

Thompson and Edwards (2000) first noted a prominent hodograph kink separating primarily speed shear from primarily directional shear in the environments of some supercells producing significant tornadoes. Responding to this observation, we compared similar thermodynamic and shear environments between the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of 3 May 1999 and non-tornadic supercell thunderstorms occurring in north Texas on 23 April 2003. The results suggest that certain characteristics of the kink could discriminate between tornadic and non-tornadic supercells. This combination of features consisted of a strong (> 10 m s-1) nearly straight-line hodograph below 500 m above ground level (AGL) and storm-relative inflow orthogonal to the base of this hodograph segment at 10 m, yielding almost purely streamwise storm-relative inflow.
 We evaluated this hypothesis by analyzing 67 severe convective events, 65 of which were supercells, in Oklahoma from 1997-2004, and dividing the events into non-tornadic, weak-tornadic (F0-­F1), and significant-tornadic (F2-­F5) storm classes. The results show improved discrimination between storm classes for 10-­500 m storm-relative helicity and bulk shear magnitude when compared to 10-­1000 m calculations of the same. Also, histograms of the critical angle (defined by the storm-relative inflow vector at 10 m and 10-­500 m shear vector) revealed that the tornadic storms, and in particular the significant tornadic storms, tended to be characterized by angles near 90°, whereas the non-tornadic storms were not. Although the results are based on a relatively small sample, they suggest that a careful consideration of the evolution of the low-level hodograph in both time and space in relation to the storm motion can potentially be a valuable aid in forecasting supercell tornadoes.

Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

AbstractCyclic mesocyclogenesis is the process by which a supercell produces multiple mesocyclones with similar life cycles. The frequency of cyclic mesocyclogenesis has been linked to tornado potential, with higher frequencies decreasing the potential for tornadogenesis. Thus, the ability to predict the presence and frequency of cycling in supercells may be beneficial to forecasters for assessing tornado potential. However, idealized simulations of cyclic mesocyclogenesis have found it to be highly sensitive to environmental and computational parameters. Thus, whether convective-allowing models can resolve and predict cycling has yet to be determined. This study tests the capability of a storm-scale, ensemble prediction system to resolve the cycling process and predict its frequency. Forecasts for three cyclic supercells occurring in May 2017 are generated by NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) using 3- and 1-km grid spacing. Rare cases of cyclic-like processes were identified at 3 km, but cycling occurred more frequently at 1 km. WoFS predicted variation in cycling frequencies for the storms that were similar to observed variations in frequency. Object-based identification of mesocyclones was used to extract environmental parameters from a storm-relative inflow sector from each mesocyclone. Lower magnitudes of 0–1-km storm-relative helicity and significant tornado parameter are present for the two more frequently cycling supercells, and higher values are present for the case with the fewest cycles. These results provide initial evidence that high-resolution ensemble forecasts can potentially provide useful guidance on the likelihood and cycling frequency of cyclic supercells.

Low-Tropospheric Shear in the Structure of Squall Lines: Impacts on Latent Heating under Layer-Lifting Ascent

Abstract This study analyzes the dependence of the intensity of simulated midlatitude squall lines (SLs) at maturity on the strength of the environmental low-tropospheric shear, focusing on the amplitude of the latent heating produced within the deep convective region. The hypothesis motivating this investigation is that shear fundamentally affects system strength by modulating the mean convective instability of the storm-relative inflowing air, which is justified by the layer-lifting nature of convection in SLs. The layer-lifting model of convection (LLMC) is proposed for measuring convective instability in the context of SLs, wherein latent heating is estimated by contemplating the storm-relative inflow of CAPE. This framework is used for defining LLMC indices for the precipitation rate and the updraft’s strength and verticality. Idealized SLs at maturity, simulated in a variety of kinematic and thermodynamic environments, encompass wide-ranging values of LLMC indices and degrees of cold pool–shear balance within the spectrum of cold pool–dominated storms. LLMC indices account for much of the intercase variability in the updraft’s strength and verticality, the precipitation rate, and the convective mode apparent in radar reflectivity plots. It is found that the low-tropospheric shear fundamentally affects the intensity of SLs through its effects on latent heating, with stronger shear leading to larger inflowing convectively unstable air as a fraction of the total storm-relative inflow, favoring system intensity. This behavior could largely explain the dependence of storm intensity on the strength of shear documented in previous investigations, as cold pool–shear balance appears to be less restrictive on the intensity of mature SLs than the strength of the shear alone.

Polarimetric Variability of Classic Supercell Storms as a Function of Environment

AbstractClassic supercell storms occur in a generally well understood environment characterized by instability and vertical wind shear. Within this broadly favorable environment, large day-to-day variability in environmental parameters may lead to widely varying radar presentation of storms. Of interest here is whether specific storm structures exhibit repeatable characteristics in similar environments and whether radar presentation can be predicted with knowledge of environmental characteristics. Specifically, this paper focuses on (i) updraft characteristics inferred using differential reflectivity ZDR columns, (ii) characteristics of storm-relative inflow inferred using ZDR arcs, and (iii) areal extent and cyclicality of polarimetrically inferred hailfall at low levels. Variability of these radar features is compared among storms in similar environments and among a larger subset of storms across highly varying environments. The similarity of storms in similar and different environments is quantified, and tornadic and nontornadic storms are compared. Associations between inferred updraft, inflow, and hailfall characteristics and environmental variables are discussed. Storm features generally exhibit greater similarity among storms in similar environments than across environments, although exceptions occur. The results indicate that many radar features of classic supercells may be useful to learn about microphysical variability across environments.

Thermodynamic Constraints on the Morphology of Simulated Midlatitude Squall Lines

Abstract This study examines how environmental thermodynamics constrain the morphology of simulated idealized midlatitude squall lines (SLs). The thermodynamic soundings used for simulating various SLs are specified primarily by prescribed vertical profiles of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the level of free convection. This framework, which contemplates the latent instability properties of both low- and midtropospheric air, is considered to be convenient for investigating layer-lifting convective phenomena. Results show that frequently used CAPE indices are unsuitable for diagnosing SL characteristics, while integrated CAPE (ICAPE) discriminates the amplitude of the storm-induced heating for a given value of environmental shear. The skill of ICAPE follows from its relation to the buoyancy attained by low- and midtropospheric parcels as they ascend over the cold pool under layer-lifting convection. Environmental kinematics also affect the storm-induced heating, with stronger low-level shear leading to a greater proportion of inflowing latent unstable air among total storm-relative inflow, thus producing higher temperatures aloft. The precipitable water accounts for much of the precipitation-rate variation for a given value of shear. The precipitation efficiency is lower in environments with weaker shear and dryer midtropospheric conditions. Cold pool temperatures are slightly affected by environmental variations beneath the layer of minimum moist static energy, with drier midtropospheric conditions and weaker shear leading to warmer cold pools. SLs with a small vertical gradient of cold pool buoyancy propagate less rapidly and produce small surface wind speeds. Cold pool properties could be affected by a descending branch of the front-to-rear flow, which crosses over with the rear inflow jet.

Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based Parametric Model

Abstract This study presents an analysis of near-surface (10 m) inflow angles using wind vector data from over 1600 quality-controlled global positioning system dropwindsondes deployed by aircraft on 187 flights into 18 hurricanes. The mean inflow angle in hurricanes is found to be −22.6° ± 2.2° (95% confidence). Composite analysis results indicate little dependence of storm-relative axisymmetric inflow angle on local surface wind speed, and a weak but statistically significant dependence on the radial distance from the storm center. A small, but statistically significant dependence of the axisymmetric inflow angle on storm intensity is also found, especially well outside the eyewall. By compositing observations according to radial and azimuthal location relative to storm motion direction, significant inflow angle asymmetries are found to depend on storm motion speed, although a large amount of unexplained variability remains. Generally, the largest storm-relative inflow angles (<−50°) are found in the fastest-moving storms (>8 m s−1) at large radii (>8 times the radius of maximum wind) in the right-front storm quadrant, while the smallest inflow angles (>−10°) are found in the fastest-moving storms in the left-rear quadrant. Based on these observations, a parametric model of low-wavenumber inflow angle variability as a function of radius, azimuth, storm intensity, and motion speed is developed. This model can be applied for purposes of ocean surface remote sensing studies when wind direction is either unknown or ambiguous, for forcing storm surge, surface wave, and ocean circulation models that require a parametric surface wind vector field, and evaluating surface wind field structure in numerical models of tropical cyclones.

Surface Cold Pools in the Outer Rainbands of Tropical Storm Hanna (2008) Near Landfall

Surface mesonet observations were used to document the structure of prominent cold pools associated with two convective outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Hanna on 5 September 2008. The developing rainbands were located ~400 km north of the storm center as they crossed the Carolina coastline and passed over the mesonet. The combination of moderate CAPE, moderate low-level cross-band vertical shear, and dry midlevel air provided an environment supportive of surface cold pool formation and long-lived quasi-linear convection. Both rainbands exhibited multiple outward-tilting convective cells and discrete line segments centered within a narrow zone of nearly continuous stratiform precipitation. The mesonet observations provided a unique along- and cross-band perspective of discrete cold pools situated beneath and behind the convection portions of each rainband. Prominent cold pools extended 40–80 km behind the rainband’s leading edge and exhibited maximum potential temperature, mixing ratio, and equivalent potential temperature deficits of 2–4 K, 1–2 g kg−1, and 4–10 K, respectively. In the cross-band direction, convergence of storm-relative inflow along the cold pool leading edge was coincident with a modest high pressure anomaly, while inflow divergence prevailed through the cold pool and rainfall maxima. Several cold pools expanded along-band while being advected downband by the prevailing cyclonic flow. Cold pool wakes were observed more than 50 km behind the rainband leading edge and up to 20 km downband from intense convection. Variations in cold pool intensity were not well correlated with convective intensity, rainfall rate, or the degree of midlevel dryness. Implications of prominent cold pools on tropical cyclone convection, size, and intensity are discussed.

The Response of Simulated Nocturnal Convective Systems to a Developing Low-Level Jet

Abstract Some recent numerical experiments have examined the dynamics of initially surface-based squall lines that encounter an increasingly stable boundary layer, akin to what occurs with the onset of nocturnal cooling. The present study builds on that work by investigating the added effect of a developing nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) on the convective-scale dynamics of a simulated squall line. The characteristics of the simulated LLJ atop a simulated stable boundary layer are based on past climatological studies of the LLJ in the central United States. A variety of jet orientations are tested, and sensitivities to jet height and the presence of low-level cooling are explored. The primary impacts of adding the LLJ are that it alters the wind shear in the layers just above and below the jet and that it alters the magnitude of the storm-relative inflow in the jet layer. The changes to wind shear have an attendant impact on low-level lifting, in keeping with current theories for gust front lifting in squall lines. The changes to the system-relative inflow, in turn, impact total upward mass flux and precipitation output. Both are sensitive to the squall line–relative orientation of the LLJ. The variations in updraft intensity and system-relative inflow are modulated by the progression of the low-level cooling, which mimics the development of a nocturnal boundary layer. While the system remains surface-based, the below-jet shear has the largest impact on lifting, whereas the above-jet shear begins to play a larger role as the system becomes elevated. Similarly, as the system becomes elevated, larger changes to system-relative inflow are observed because of the layer of potentially buoyant inflowing parcels becoming confined to the layer of the LLJ.

High-Resolution, Mobile Doppler Radar Observations of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in a Supercell

Abstract On 15 May 2003, two ground-based, mobile, Doppler radars scanned a supercell that moved through the Texas Panhandle and cyclically produced mesocyclones. The two radars collected data from the storm during a rapid cyclic mesocyclogenesis stage and a more slowly evolving tornadic period. A 3-cm-wavelength radar scanned the supercell continuously for a short time after it was cyclic but close to the time of tornadogenesis. A 5-cm-wavelength radar scanned the supercell the entire time it exhibited cyclic behavior and for an additional 30 min after that. The volumetric data obtained with the 5-cm-wavelength radar allowed for the individual circulations to be analyzed at multiple levels in the supercell. Most of the circulations that eventually dissipated moved rearward with respect to storm motion and were located at distances progressively farther away from the region of rear-flank outflow. The circulations associated with a tornado did not move nearly as far rearward relative to the storm. The mean circulation diameters were approximately 1–4 km and had lifetimes of 10–30 min. Circulation dissipation often, but not always, occurred following decreases in circulation diameter, while changes in maximum radial wind shear were not reliable indicators of circulation dissipation. In one instance, a pair of circulations rotated cyclonically around, and moved toward, each other; the two circulations then combined to form one circulation. Single-Doppler radial velocities from both radars were used to assess the differences between the pretornadic circulations and the tornadic circulations. Storm outflow in the rear flank of the storm increased notably during the time cyclic mesocyclogenesis slowed and tornado formation commenced. Large storm-relative inflow likely advected the pretornadic circulations rearward in the absence of organized outflow. The development of strong outflow in the rear flank probably balanced the strong inflow, allowing the tornadic circulations to stay in areas rich in vertical vorticity generation.

Structures and Dynamics of Quasi-2D Mesoscale Convective Systems

Recently, three distinct archetypes for midlatitude linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have been identified. This article focuses on the fundamentals of two of these archetypes: convective lines with trailing stratiform (TS) precipitation and convective lines with leading stratiform (LS) precipitation. Both the TS and LS modes typically exhibit quasi-2D reflectivity patterns and quasi-2D environmental storm-relative wind fields. Ongoing work has revealed that there are three common flow structures for these quasi-2D MCSs: front-fed TS systems (which are sustained by front-to-rear storm-relative inflow), as well as front-fed LS and rear-fed LS systems (which are sustained by rear-to-front storm-relative inflow). This paper summarizes the observed structures of the front-fed TS, front-fed LS, and rear-fed LS modes, and then outlines an idealized numerical experiment in which these modes were simulated. The authors analyze the basic simulated kinematic and microphysical structures and provide a framework in which to analyze the dynamics of the modeled systems. To a large degree, the organizational modes of developing quasi-2D MCSs may be anticipated by considering the magnitudes and preferred directions of the horizontal pressure gradient accelerations associated with a surface cold pool [whose strength is largely related to the environmental humidity and convective available potential energy (CAPE)] and an updraft in the mean environmental wind shear profile. In this regard, the lower-tropospheric shear is of prime importance, although the middle- and upper-tropospheric shear provide for additional, nontrivial accelerations.

Proximity sounding analysis for derechos and supercells: an assessment of similarities and differences

Proximity soundings (within 2 h and 167 km) of derechos (long-lived, widespread damaging convective windstorms) and supercells have been obtained. More than 65 derechos, accompanied by 115 proximity soundings, are identified during the years 1983 to 1993. The derechos have been divided into categories according to the synoptic situation: strong forcing (SF), weak forcing (WF), and “hybrid” cases (which are neither weakly nor strongly forced). Nearly 100 supercell proximity soundings have been found for the period 1998 to 2001, subdivided into nontornadic and tornadic supercells; tornadic supercells were further subdivided into those producing significant (>F1 rating) tornadoes and weak tornadoes (F0-F1 rating). WF derecho situations typically are characterized by warm, moist soundings with large convective available potential instability (CAPE) and relatively weak vertical wind shear. SF derechos usually have stronger wind shears, and cooler and less moist soundings with lower CAPE than the weakly forced cases. Most derechos exhibit strong storm-relative inflow at low levels. In WF derechos, this is usually the result of rapid convective system movement, whereas in SF derechos, storm-relative inflow at low levels is heavily influenced by relatively strong low-level windspeeds. “Hybrid” cases collectively are similar to an average of the SF and WF cases. Supercells occur in environments that are not all that dissimilar from those that produce SF derechos. It appears that some parameter combining instability and deep layer shear, such as the Energy–Helicity Index (EHI), can help discriminate between tornadic and nontornadic supercell situations. Soundings with significant tornadoes (F2 and greater) typically show high 0–1 km relative humidities, and strong 0–1 km shear. Results suggest it may not be easy to forecast the mode of severe thunderstorm activity (i.e., derecho versus supercell) on any particular day, given conditions that favor severe thunderstorm activity in general. It is possible that the convective initiation mechanism is an important factor, with linear initiation favoring derechos, whereas nonlinear forcing might favor supercells. Upper-level storm-relative flow in supercells tends to be rear-to-front, whereas for derechos, storm-relative flow tends to be front-to-rear through a deep surface-based layer. However, knowing the storm-relative hodograph requires knowledge of storm motion, which can be a challenge to predict. These results generally imply that probabilistic forecasts of convective mode could be a successful strategy.

Use of Regression Techniques to Predict Hail Size and the Probability of Large Hail

Abstract Multiple regression and logistic regression equations were derived for the prediction of hail size based on data from 1992 through 1994. The multiple regression equation was formulated to predict hail diameter. The logistic regression equation was developed to predict the probability of hail size greater than or equal to 1.9 cm in diameter. Variables used for this study consisted of vertically integrated liquid (VIL) computed from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar and convective parameters derived from the skew-T/Hodograph analysis and research program. Data were obtained from the Baltimore, Maryland/Washington D.C., WSR-88D radar and Dulles, Virginia, upper-air soundings. Numerous parameters were tested; however, only VIL, 85-kPa temperature, freezing level, and mean storm-relative inflow in the lowest 2-km were retained for the multiple regression equation. These four parameters were used as a base to derive the logistic regression equation, and this derivation process...