Storm Frequency Research Articles

Exploring the Interactions of Climate Change, Freshwater Supply, and Environmental Balance

Climate change has far-reaching implications for global freshwater availability and environmental balance. The increase in greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels has triggered global climate change, affecting precipitation patterns, glacier melt and sea level rise. Parts of the United States are experiencing significant changes in precipitation patterns, with some areas experiencing frequent storms and others experiencing more prolonged droughts. Accelerated glacier melt is leading to fewer water sources during the dry season, and sea level rise is threatening coastal freshwater resources, triggering saltwater intrusion and a decline in freshwater quality. Wildfires in California are an important consequence of climate change, severely affecting freshwater resources and environmental balance. Wildfires lead to reduced water resources, impacting agricultural water use and irrigation infrastructure, and affecting water quality through increased sediment and pollutant loads. The 2018 Camp Hill Fire contaminated local water sources, and the rebuilding process has increased demand for water resources, exacerbating resource constraints. Global warming has lengthened wildfire seasons and increased fire intensity, leading to increased pressure on freshwater resources. By analyzing the impacts of climate change on freshwater resources, this paper hopes to draw public attention to environmental protection and provide a reference for gradually optimizing ecosystems and creating a healthy living environment.

Parametrized fragility, failure analysis and cost-effectively strengthening of electrical power distribution system under ice and concurrent wind hazards

In the past decades, the increasing frequency and severity of winter storms due to climate change have revealed the vulnerability of power systems against such events. This study aims to investigate the impact of ice and concurrent wind hazards on power systems by proposing a set of parametrized fragility functions for utility poles and conductors, and then applying them to system failure analysis and cost-effectively strengthening. The fragility model is generated by logistic regression to estimate the failure probability of poles and conductors as a function of hazard and structural characteristics. Applying proposed functions, system failure analysis is performed using IEEE123 testbed in four cities with various hazard characteristics. The results show that wind speed significantly affects pole rupture, while extreme ice and wind combination influences conductor breakage. Meanwhile, even minor structural failure leads to severe outages. Moreover, the risk-based Expected Outage Reduction (EOR) is calculated with developed fragility models as pole replacement ranking index. By comparing different replacement strategies, the 70-year system performance can be cost-effectively optimized by risk-based pole ranking and replacement pace and timing. Overall, the models and applications presented in this paper serve as a critical part of power system resilience analysis against winter-related hazards.

Combined effects of ocean-land processes on spring precipitation variability in Mongolian Plateau

The Mongolian Plateau hosts one of the world's most fragile ecosystems, characterized by high volatility and frequent natural disasters due to rapid climate change and human activities in recent decades. Frequent dust storms notably mark spring in this region. Through observational analysis and numerical modeling, this study investigates the impacts of comprehensive ocean and land processes—including sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, as well as Eurasian land conditions—on the interannual fluctuations of spring precipitation in the Mongolian Plateau (SPMP) from 1979 to 2020. The ocean-land processes involve: a tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies triggers an eastward-propagating continental-scale wave train; Increased snow cover in Central Asia induces significant anomalous low pressure through the albedo effect; El Niño-Southern Oscillation initiate a teleconnection pattern over the upstream region of the Indian-western Pacific Ocean. These anomalous ocean and land conditions interact with large-scale atmospheric circulations, altering dynamical and hydrological conditions around the Mongolian Plateau, thereby contributing to SPMP variation. Further corroboration from numerical model experiments supports the observational analysis results. The combined effects of multiple ocean-land factors effectively explain precipitation variability across extensive areas of the Mongolian Plateau. A regression model constructed using these land-ocean factors captures the time evolution of the SPMP well.

Dust over water: Analyzing the impact of lake desiccation on dust storms on the Iranian Plateau

The desiccation of lakes on the Iranian Plateau, driven by both natural processes and anthropogenic activities, has led to significant land cover changes, exposing lake beds and triggering adverse environmental consequences. These transformations pose serious threats to ecological conditions and the provision of ecosystem services. This study investigates the potential links between lake desiccation and the occurrence of dust storms across major lakes on the Iranian Plateau. By utilizing remote sensing data and time series statistical analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, and frequency analysis, we assessed changes in lake extent and their effects on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Particular Matter (PM2.5) from 1985 to 2020. An analysis of Landsat imagery reveals that lake desiccation commenced in the late 1990s, exhibiting a marked downward trend that has intensified in recent years. The results show a significant inverse correlation between aerosol parameters (AOD and PM2.5) and lake extent. Reduced lake area is associated with elevated AOD and PM2.5 concentrations, with the highest aerosol levels observed when lakes reach their smallest extent. Notably, despite an 81 % reduction in the lake area, dust storm occurrences have increased by 20%. These findings highlight the critical role of lake desiccation in exacerbating dust storms in the surrounding regions. Furthermore, the temporal alignment between fluctuations in lake extent and dust storm frequency is validated through regression analysis with a 95 % confidence level. The consistency between our results and existing literature underscores the reliability of the observed relationship, emphasizing the urgent need to address the environmental consequences of lake desiccation to mitigate its broader ecological impacts and potential human health impacts.Graphical Abstract

Global Warming and Climate Change – Need of Nuclear Energy

Global warming and climate change are the central point of scientific discussion and research around the world in 21st Century, the endeavor to alleviate the adverse impacts. The looming crisis of rising of global mean surface temperature by 1.5 oC and/or 2 oC over and above the pre-industrial level compelled the international community to execute the Paris Agreement in 2015. This is an agreement negotiated by 196 countries emphasizing the exigency to reduce the emission intensity of greenhouse gases and adopt measures to mitigate the adverse effect on the ecosystem. Extreme temperatures; more intense and frequent storms, droughts & floods; ocean acidifications; warmer ocean; loss of biodiversity; disruption of crops and increased health risks are reported across the regions which reflects the adverse effects of global warming and climate change. Intensity, frequency and scale of these man-made risks are going to follow an upward trend till the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to limit the anticipated temperature rise [1].

Machine learning-based assessment of regional-scale variation of landslide susceptibility in central Vietnam.

Recurrent landslide events triggered by typhoons and tropical storms over Vietnam pose a longstanding threat to the nation's population and infrastructure. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions, especially the growing intensity and frequency of storms, have elevated landslide susceptibility in many parts of the country. This research examines the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility across central Vietnam over several years, using multi-temporal landslide inventories from Typhoon Ketsana (2009), Tropical Storm Podul (2013), and Typhoon Molave (2020). Additionally, the research explores the impact of individual landslide causative factors on the probabilistic occurrences of landslides. The post-event landslide susceptibility models of these three climate extreme events were developed using nine causative factors and a Random Forest machine learning algorithm. The results indicate a notable areal expansion of high to very high landslide susceptibility in the northern and eastern regions and a moderate reduction in the central and southern areas during the post-Molave period compared to the post-Ketsana period. These changes may be early indicators of increasing landslide susceptibility in response to changing hydro-climatic conditions. The research found that annual average rainfall and topographic elevation are the two most important variables influencing landslide prediction, showing a nonlinear relationship with landslide probability. The landslide susceptibility models achieved high Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) (>95%), accuracy (>89%), and sensitivity (>90%) scores, signifying the robustness of the models. Additionally, the uncertainty of the models was quantified and spatially mapped. This multi-temporal analysis of landslide susceptibility is crucial for understanding the regional susceptibility trends and identifying areas with increasing, decreasing, and consistently high susceptibility to landslides. These insights are invaluable for prioritizing mitigation and risk reduction strategies in landslide-prone regions and guiding appropriate land use planning.

Is the Modern Arctic Marginal Ice Zone More Susceptible to Summer Cyclones?

Abstract As Arctic sea ice melts, cyclones potentially enhance the mechanical and thermodynamic forces that influence the vulnerable ice edge. However, examples can be found in satellite observations and reanalyses where cyclones either locally increase or decrease ice within the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Two case studies with these opposing ice responses are presented. Guided by the tendencies during these events, 264 strong (minimum surface pressure below 984 mb) summer cyclones were sorted by prevailing wind direction and SST changes within the MIZ to quantify the net ice impacts in the present-day Arctic (2010–2019) and early satellite era (1982–1991). By tracking MIZ ice area from one week before the cyclone’s formation through two weeks after, we find cyclones that enhance southerly winds mostly decrease ice area, whereas enhanced northerlies generally increase ice area within the MIZ later in the season. Furthermore, early-summer storms tend to decrease MIZ ice area more than late-summer storms. A shift towards more frequent early-summer storms is observed from the 1980s to 2010s, resulting in almost two-thirds of recent storms decreasing area. Consequently, recent summer cyclones have more negative impacts, resulting in a decline of more than 40,000 km2 of MIZ ice area on average, whereas 1980s cyclones had little aggregate impact. Wind direction and SST trends partially reconcile the wide range of MIZ ice area changes due to cyclone passage, yet considerable variations in individual cyclones’ impacts remain even when controlling for these factors. These bulk diagnostics therefore only explain part of the complex ice-cyclone relationship.

Weather events influence survival and recruitment of Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) in the Caribbean

Abstract The West Indies is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts. Understanding how environmental conditions influence survival of resident avifauna is an important information need given the predicted increases of drought and frequency and intensity of severe storms in the region. Throughout much of the Caribbean, Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) are widespread and abundant, traits that may facilitate understanding their response to environmental changes in the region. We used a 10-yr capture–mark–recapture data set to examine C. flaveola survival, recruitment, population growth, and age structure in context of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperatures, drought conditions, and occurrence and intensity of storm events. Our models suggested wing length, occurrence of storms, and drought all influenced survival. Both the incidence of storms and drier than average conditions in the preceding wet season (April–June) decreased survival. Sex of bird and net hours influenced capture probability, but weather influences on recruitment were equivocal. During non-storm years, mean population growth was stable at 1.019 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.098), but dropped to 0.843 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.846) in storm years. Increasing frequency of storms, such as back-to-back years, would likely push the growth rate lower. A protracted pattern of increased storm frequency, especially if coupled with a subsequent drought during the wet season, may lead to localized extirpations or strongly reduced populations.

Remote Sensing and Assessment of Compound Groundwater Flooding Using an End-to-End Wireless Environmental Sensor Network and Data Model at a Coastal Cultural Heritage Site in Portsmouth, NH.

The effects of climate change in the forms of rising sea levels and increased frequency of storms and storm surges are being noticed across many coastal communities around the United States. These increases are impacting the timing and frequency of tidal and rainfall influenced compound groundwater flooding events. These types of events can be exemplified by the recent and ongoing occurrence of groundwater flooding within building basements at the historic Strawbery Banke Museum (SBM) living history campus in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Fresh water and saline groundwater intrusion within basements of historic structures can be destructive to foundations, mortar, joists, fasteners, and the overlaying wood structure. Although this is the case, there appears to be a dearth of research that examines the use of wireless streaming sensor networks to monitor and assess groundwater inundation within historic buildings in near-real time. Within the current study, we designed and deployed a three-sensor latitudinal network at the SBM. This network includes the deployment and remote monitoring of water level sensors in the basements of two historic structures 120 and 240 m from the river, as well as one sensor within the river itself. Groundwater salinity levels were also monitored within the basements of the two historic buildings. Assessments and model results from the recorded sensor data provided evidence of both terrestrial rainfall and tidal influences on the flooding at SBM. Understanding the sources of compound flooding within historic buildings can allow site managers to mitigate better and adapt to the effects of current and future flooding events. Data and results of this work are available via the project's interactive webpage and through a public touchscreen kiosk interface developed for and deployed within the SBM Rowland Gallery's "Water Has a Memory" exhibit.

Storm frequency, magnitude, and cumulative storm beach impact along the US east coast

Abstract. This study extracted historical water level data from 12 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration tide gauge stations, spanning the period from the early 20th century to 2022 from central Maine to southern Florida, in order to determine if temporal and spatial trends existed in the frequency and magnitude of storms along the US Atlantic Ocean coast. We used the Storm Erosion Potential Index (SEPI) to identify and quantify storms. We then use the timing and magnitude of those storms to determine the cumulative effect of storm clustering and large-magnitude storms on sandy beaches using the cumulative storm impact index (CSII) empirical model. The results from this study showed (1) no appreciable increase in storm frequency at any of the stations (except for sheltered stations susceptible to storm tide augmentation), (2) statistically significant but modest increases in storm magnitudes over time for 8 of the 12 tidal stations, (3) regional differences in storm magnitudes (SEPI) and cumulative storm impacts (CSII) characteristic of more frequent extratropical storms (temporal clustering) in the north and less frequent tropical storms in the south, and (4) a 4- to 10-year recovery period for regional beach recovery.

Testing a spaceborne passive‐microwave severe hail retrieval over Argentina using ground‐based dual‐polarization radar data

AbstractPassive‐microwave hail detection methods rely on the scattering signal produced by large ice hydrometeors. Recently, passive‐microwave hail retrieval methods have been trained by pairing Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) data with United States surface hail reports to present a global hail climatology. In particular, Southeastern South America (SESA) stands out as a hotspot for hail occurrence, more specifically northeastern Argentina. However, the analysis performed with the available ground hail reports in Argentina shows some differences from the available ground hail reports in Argentina, as it locates the most frequent hail storms in the southwestern (Mendoza and Córdoba) and northeastern (Misiones) regions of SESA. To assess the retrieval from a regional perspective, we take a case study approach and focus on polarization‐corrected temperature features (PCTFs) with a detected . We mainly rely on polarimetric weather radars and a hydrometeor identification algorithm (HID) as a proxy for ground truth. Results indicate that the hail retrieval responds mainly to low 37‐GHz polarized corrected (brightness) temperatures (PCTs) and large PCTF area, while HID outputs show that high probabilities of hail also correspond to abundantly suspended graupel. The observed passive‐microwave hail detection hotspot could be influenced by mesoscale convective systems with deep columns of graupel‐sized frozen hydrometeors, common in northeastern Argentina.

The impact of a storm on the microtidal flat in the Yellow River Delta

Strong hydrodynamic forces generated by storms are key in shaping coastal tidal flats. Most tidal flats achieve equilibrium by adapting to hydrodynamic conditions and sediment inputs. However, high-energy wave activity during storms disrupts this equilibrium, causing rapid and significant changes, particularly in tidal flats, especially in microtidal flats, which are characterized by low tidal ranges. In this study, we conducted an 11-d field campaign on a microtidal flat in the Yellow River Delta (YRD), capturing data during both stormy and calm weather conditions. We measured tidal currents, wave activity, suspended sediment concentrations and sediment grain sizes. The results demonstrated that the tidal flat maintained equilibrium under calm conditions, with minimal fluctuations in bed level (within ±2 mm). Contrastingly, severe erosion and sediment removal during the storm significantly altered the equilibrium of the area. The storm-induced high shear stresses, ranging from 1.02 to 1.48 , along with alongshore sediment transport, resulted in an elevation change of -10 mm. Furthermore, the subsequent bed level recovery was minimal and insufficient to offset the erosion. Compared to that of the mesotidal and macrotidal flats, post-storm recovery on microtidal flats was limited due to shorter inundation periods and weaker hydrodynamic forces. Therefore, frequent storms may lead to continuous shoreline retreat on microtidal coasts. Conclusively, the present findings underscore the significant impact of storm-induced erosion on the evolutionary processes of microtidal flats and suggest that greater attention should be given to protecting these areas during storms in the Yellow River Delta. The insights can guide the development of more effective coastal protection strategies, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to mitigate erosion and promote resilience in microtidal regions.

Understanding how winter conditions in the North Atlantic affect the physiology and behaviour of Atlantic Salmon in sea-cages

In recent years there have been a number of instances where declines in water temperature are suspected to have contributed to winter mortalities at salmon cage-sites in Atlantic Canada. In addition, it is expected that temperature variability due to more intense and frequent winter storms will increase with climate change, and this may further threaten Atlantic salmon health and welfare in sea-cages. To better understand cage-site conditions and aspects of salmon behaviour and physiology during the winter, we fitted Atlantic salmon in commercial size sea-cages in Newfoundland (Canada) for two consecutive years with internal and external data storage tags (DSTs) that recorded depth, temperature, heart rate (fH) and 3D-acceleration (swimming activity). Tags were surgically attached / implanted in late October / early November when water temperatures were 8–10 °C, and the DSTs were collected at the time of harvest. Although tag retrieval was limited due to some early mortality, challenges due to Covid-19 and with fish identification during harvest, the data collected for both years were comparable.Water temperature decreased at a rate of 0.35–0.57 °C week−1 from October / November to March, and the coolest average weekly temperature experienced by the fish was 1.10 °C in early March of both years. Average fH decreased with temperature starting in the fall, and the fish primarily occupied the upper 5 m of the cage for the duration of this study, despite the fact that temperatures were generally homogeneous with depth. Nonetheless, vertical migrations to deeper depths were observed during some periods (e.g., at night during the coldest months), and thus, the average depth of the fish was greater during these times.These data reveal that temperatures in sea-cages in Newfoundland remain below 5 °C for ~5 months and are below 2 °C for ~1.5 months. Thus, understanding how cold temperatures affect various aspects of salmon biology, and monitoring these fish during this period, is critical to the sustainability and future of this industry.

Aeolian dust dynamics in southern Central Asia revealed by the multi-timescale loess records in southern Tajikistan

Dust activities in Central Asia (CA) hold significant scientific interest due to their broad social and environmental impacts. Loess deposits in CA serve as crucial natural archives, recording regional atmospheric characteristics and dust dynamics. The oldest loess in CA has been discovered in southern Tajikistan. However, debates persist regarding the wind dynamics of the Tajikistan loess deposition, which motivates our current study. By analyzing grain sizes of the last glacial loess and previous loess records since 800 ka, we determined that the Tajikistan loess consisted of post-storm floating dust and fine-grained dust transported by the westerlies. The reduced grain sizes may indicate less frequent dust storms. Our results provided evidence for the influence of global ice volume changes on the dust dynamics in southern Tajikistan, primarily by modulating sea-level pressure differences between the Caspian Sea and Hindu Kush/Pamirs. These ice volume changes also intensified rapid atmospheric fluctuations in CA, suggesting a sensitive response of the latter to glacial boundary conditions. Moreover, although precipitation variations may influence dust activities, their impact appears to be minimal. Collectively, our findings offer vital insights into the formation of loess strata and the development of extensive modern loess landforms in southern CA.

Assessment of tangible coastal inundation damage related to critical infrastructure and buildings: The case of Mauritius Island

Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50 to 500 years is significant, with 6.2% and 27.1% of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km2, with buildings covering 5.02 km2 submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds ( 1.5 m and 4.5 m) and , beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.

Multi-Channel Stormwater Ponds: A Sustainable Approach to Urban Flood Resilience

Flood-prone cities depend on stormwater ponds, but current designs with single, shallow channels limit storage. This paper proposes a new approach: using multiple channels to create smaller sections on the pond floor. Modeling shows this significantly increases storage for floods without needing a bigger pond. It also improves water flow and reduces stagnant areas. Finally, the paper explores practicalities for building these ponds, making them a valuable tool for better urban water management without needing more land or changing the pond’s height. These multi-channel ponds are particularly beneficial for frequent smaller storms by distributing water flow, reducing its speed, and allowing more time for sediment to settle, leading to improved water quality. Sustainable solutions are essential for safeguarding the future. In this research, sustainability plays a pivotal role, as the multi-channel stormwater pond design provides an innovative approach to improving flood management without the need for extra land or resources, thus supporting the goals of sustainable urban development.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion in Miami

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the sea level rise and coastal erosion in Miami. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Sea level rise and coastal erosion in Miami are growing environmental concerns due to the city's low elevation and proximity to the ocean. Studies have shown that rising sea levels, driven by climate change, are accelerating the erosion of Miami's coastline, threatening infrastructure, homes, and ecosystems. The increased frequency of tidal flooding and storm surges exacerbates the problem, making coastal areas more vulnerable. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Resilience theory, social vulnerability theory, ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) Theory may be used to anchor future studies on sea level rise and coastal erosion in Miami. Implement local ICZM strategies that involve stakeholders in decision-making processes, ensuring that community needs are met while enhancing coastal resilience. Advocate for policies that support adaptive management practices and funding for local ICZM initiatives.

A comparison of sea-level rise and storm-surge overwash effects on groundwater salinity of a barrier island

Coastal fresh groundwater is threatened by salinization due to both sea-level rise and storm-surge overwash. Most studies of subsurface saltwater intrusion focus on sea-level rise, but storms that are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change could have more imminent and permanent effects on aquifer salinity. Few studies directly compare saltwater intrusion due to sea-level rise with saltwater intrusion due to storm-surge overwash, and no studies address this issue on barrier islands. In this study, a hydrological model simulating coupled, variable-density, surface and subsurface flow and salt transport was developed and calibrated to water level and specific conductance data at Assateague Island, MD. The calibrated model was used to calculate the mass of salt and the total volume of aquifer salinized in 2080 due to both sea-level rise and more frequent storm surges. The results suggest that the total mass of salt that intrudes into the aquifer due to changes in the 2-year storm surge height is approximately equal to that of sea-level rise (∼300 kg), and the surges salinize nearly the entire aquifer, exceeding the volume salinized by sea-level rise (∼80 %). The influence of aquifer properties and unsaturated zone thickness was investigated by reducing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, resulting in greater salinization from storm-surge overwash (100 % of aquifer volume) than from sea-level rise (∼20 %). Higher storm surges are expected to overtop the dunes on Assateague by 2080 causing a 75 % decline in areas above the 2-year storm event while sea-level rise will only inundate ∼ 40 % of the land area on Assateague. This analysis suggests that groundwater is likely more vulnerable to storm-surge overwash than to sea-level rise induced salinization, even in systems where sea-level rise is expected to be most severe.

Navigating planetary human entanglements through climate change-induced human mobility in Zimbabwe: An Afrocentric perspective from the global south

The central question of the 21st century revolves around increasing human entanglement. Humans are finding it increasingly difficult to survive in the changing environment caused by climate-induced disasters such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves. In Zimbabwe, this has led to the emergence of human mobility as an adaptation strategy, with individuals (indigenous and local) relocating to areas offering more favorable economic and environmental conditions. This study employed Afrocentric theoretical lenses to describe how both slow and sudden-onset climatic catastrophic events have affected the agro-economic livelihoods of the indigenous Ndau people, forcing them to seek better living conditions and safety. As an Afrocentric study, this research examines how historical and cultural factors influence the Ndau people’s mobility decisions. It employed the philosophical sagacity interview method and talking cycles to collect data from seven wards in Chimanimani, Zimbabwe. The findings reveal that the impacts of climate change – both gradual and abrupt – have increased in frequency, intensity, duration, and location. The Ndau people have suffered frequent cyclones, storms, and heavy rainfall, leading to landslides and floods. These conditions have driven both short-term and long-term climate-induced mobility. Individuals moved locally and regionally to find livelihood opportunities and their decisions were most influenced by historical and cultural ties through kinship. The study advocates for enhancing communities’ preparedness and adaptability to reduce vulnerabilities. It highlights the importance of strong governance, resilience strategies, environmental protections, economic diversification, and social support to mitigate disasters; prevent unwanted displacement; and manage emigration. Furthermore, European narratives often dominate discussions of African climate-related agro-migration, even though most of these migrants move within their own countries and regions. As a consequence, this study aims to amplify African narratives on human mobility and climate change adaptation.

Increasing cross-border dust storm from Mongolia to China during 1987–2022

Mongolia and northern China have the highest frequency of dust weather in Northeast Asia. Dust transport from Mongolia to China is a major cause of dust weather in northern China. However, there has been limited research on the frequency changes of cross-border dust storms from Mongolia to China over the past few decades. Based on observational data, we analyzed the variation in cross-border dust storms between China and Mongolia during 1987–2022. The results indicate that, on average, approximately seven cross-border dust storm events occur annually between China and Mongolia, predominantly during the spring. The frequency of cross-border dust storms from Mongolia to China significantly increased from 2.2 events in P1 (1987–1999) to 7.5 events in P2 (2000−2022). Long-term trends suggest that rising dust emissions in east-central Mongolia largely contributed to this increase. The increase in cross-border dust storms from Mongolia to China in the spring was driven by more frequent cyclones in eastern Mongolia and Northeast China during P2. This is evidenced by a negative height anomaly and increased vorticity at 850 hPa over Northeast China. The cyclones were linked to the northward shift of the East Asian Polar Front Jet Stream (EAPJ) at 300 hPa between 50°N and 60°N. Additionally, surface conditions such as higher temperatures and decreased vegetation in Mongolia contributed to the increased frequency of cross-border dust storms from P1 to P2.