Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Research Articles

PENGARUH ANGGARAN PERTAHANAN, IMPOR ALUTSISTA, EKSPOR ALUTSISTA, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1980-2019

Military and economy are two factors that can sustain the strength of a nation, where it can be seen from the nation's economic growth. Military indicators include military budget, arms imports, and arms exports. One of the economic indicators is inflation. These indicators are used in this study. The research problem is about the differences in results of research found in previous studies. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of military indicators and economic indicators on economic growth. The study conducted in Indonesia using secondary data obtained from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Bank, and Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Republic of Indonesia. The research period is 40 years, from 1980 to 2019. The research method uses multiple linear regression. The results showed that military budget has significant effect on economic growth with positive relationship with probability value 0,01. Arms imports has significant effect on economic growth with positive relationship with probability value 0,03. Arms exports has no significant effect on economic growth with probability value 0,49. Inflation has a significant effect on economic growth with negative relationship with probability value 0,00. And simultaneously have significant effect on economic growth. In order to increase economic growth, it is necessary to has a military budget planning, planning for arms imports to be developed domestically, development of domestic arms technology to have competitive value, as well as planning the annual rate of inflation which will have an impact on increasing Indonesia's economic growth. Keywords: Arms Export, Arms Import, Economic Growth, Inflation, Military Budget

Turkey-United States' Bilateral Ties: a Tale of Convergence and Divergence of Interests

The paper explores bilateral ties between Turkey and the United States (US) following the end of World War II to the recent era of Trump-Erdogan. Due to its immense geostrategic significance and a strong military, throughout the Cold War period and also in the post-Cold War era, Tukey has mostly remained a key US ally. The methodology adopted for this study is based on both qualitative data available in the form of policy documents and existing literature about the subject as well as utilizing quantitative data comprising US economic and military aid and arms' sales to Turkey obtained from databases of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) respectively. Like numerous developing countries in other parts of the world, Turkey also became one of the biggest recipients of US economic and military assistance and Washington also provided huge arms to Ankara during the Cold War years. The US has provided Turkey an aggregate of US$ 70 billion in civilian and military assistance and has delivered its arms worth US$ 34 billion. However, it has not been a smooth journey as their bilateral relationship experienced some upheavals not only during the Cold War period but ties have been strained by various thorny matters in recent years. These include Turkey's dispute with Greece on Cyprus, targeting Kurdish fighters in Syria, purchase of S-400 defense systems from Russia, and human rights violations at home. By examining these vital points of concern, the paper concludes that although both countries have historically maintained warm bilateral ties, several divergent issues have marred the relationship between the two countries in recent years.

Security Environment and Military Spending of Turkey in the 2000s

A significant change in Turkey’s foreign policy came with an active engagement in regional issues that, in turn, produced more risks, new areas of interest, regional policy arrangements, and different security challenges in the 2000s. In this vein, Turkey’s military spending has increased to sustain its active policy behavior and goals, both regionally and globally. This article examines Turkey’s military spending between 2000 and 2018 by using Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) Military Expenditure Database and its effects on bilateral and regional relations. It argues that the increase in Turkey’s military spending in the 2000s can be explained not only by diversified security threats but also by the quest for autonomy, the desire to be a regional actor, economic capacity increase, efforts to nationalize the defense industry, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance’s inability to form a sufficient umbrella time in the face of security threats, notably in the face of missile threats. The results show that the traditional alliances and strategic cooperation do not guarantee Turkey’s military demands, and its military spending increases, while the proportion of military spending in GDP falls, due to economic growth.

Threats and Challenges of the Nuclear Arms Race on the Current Stage

Contemporary issues of nuclear weapons and the nuclear arms race in the modern world are examined, based mainly on the assessments of the German “Statista” company, the American Federation of Scientists and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. It is emphasized that invented more than seventy years ago, nuclear weapon has not lost its basic qualities of the most massive and large-scale destruction, but also added to this the latest factors of global threat of its proliferation and the challenges of innovative technological advances in its means of delivery. The latter is increasingly imposed on the growing conflict of the modern multipolarworld order, thereby giving impetus to global competition in the accumulation of all forms of nuclear weapons and allocating unprecedented financial resources from nuclear and non-nuclear powers. It is shown that the most fierce competition in the nuclear arms race is developing in the triangle of relations and national interests between the US, Russia and China. On the same fact base, it is argued that China cannot be compared to the other two nations in the accumulated nuclear weapon arsenals, but that its technological positions and growing military potential lead to major changes in the bilateral concepts of international security and even to the termination of a number of Russian-American treaty agreements, above all in development of medium- and short-range ground-based missiles. There is also a gradual transition to a new deployment of forces and global strategies in the field of nuclear arms. World awareness of these changes is needed in a kind of the Swedish proposal on implementation of strategy for the “step-by-step” approach to nuclear disarmament. In general, challenges and threats should stimulate international dialogue in defense of the principle of peace-sharing in a global age

A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Actor Heterogeneity: An Application to Global Weapons Transfers

AbstractIn this paper, we analyse the network of international major conventional weapons (MCW) transfers from 1950 to 2016, based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The dataset consists of yearly bilateral arms transfers between pairs of countries, which allows us to conceive of the individual relationships as part of an overall trade network. For the analysis, we extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time-varying effects on both the network level (trade network) and the actor level (country effects). Our investigation enables the identification of potentially differing driving forces that influence the formation of new trade relationships versus the persistence of existing ones. In accordance with political economy models, we expect security- and network-related covariates to be most important for the formation of transfers, whereas repeated transfers should prevalently be determined by the importers’ market size and military spending. Our proposed modelling approach corroborates the hypothesis and quantifies the corresponding effects. Additionally, we subject the time-varying heterogeneity effects to a functional principal component analysis. This analysis serves as an exploratory tool and allows us to identify countries with exceptional increases or decreases in their tendency to import and export weapons.

Non-standard Sources for Arms Production and Arms Trade Data*

Even though there are a range of useful sources on defence economics data, only some of them are used widely. The main sources of export, import and output data sets are Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers-US Department of State (WMEAT), European Statistical Office (EUROSTAT) and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) while SIPRI and WMEAT are for military expenditures. This paper discusses the main features and similarities of data sets from the various sources. Like other industrial/ sector data sets, the main problem for arms data sets is revisions of industrial classifications, which prevent the creation of long time series.

Arms Transfers, Intellectual Property, and the Diffusion of Military Technology

ABSTRACTDoes the United States take into account concerns about intellectual property protection when it transfers arms internationally? This study explores the relationship between intellectual property law and the transfer of military technology. States weigh a number of issues when considering whether to export arms, from security problems, to reputational issues, to regime type. Both domestically and internationally, intellectual property law represents the principal means for states and firms to protect their technology. It stands to reason that states that export arms may take into account the robustness of intellectual property protection (IPP) in states that import arms. We hypothesize that the United States, which has placed a high priority on IPP generally, will be reluctant to export arms to states that place a low priority on IPP. Using arms transfer data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the World Bank’s Intellectual Property Protection ratings, the institutional affiliations of states that import arms (including WTO and TRIPS) and a variety of other variables, this study tests hypotheses concerning IPP and its relationship to international arms sales, finding support for the hypothesis that the United States takes into account a potential importing state’s IPP strength when evaluating arms transfers.

Militaryeconomic cooperation of the CSTO and EAEU member states with third countries: challenges and threats to Russia

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was founded in 1992 for military-economic cooperation of member countries and mainly reflects the intention of Russia to maintain its zone of influence on the territory of the former USSR. In continuation of this policy, an agreement was concluded on the foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which began its operation in 2015 and provides a certain freedom of movement of goods (services), capital and labor. These organizations provide effective interaction between the CSTO member states and the EAEU including common space between the countries and their development in a single trajectory, which allows to obtain a synergistic effect on the international arena. Thus, it is necessary to monitor the level of military-economic cooperation between the CSTO and EAEU member states. The purpose of this article was to study the challenges and threats to the Russia of military-economic cooperation of the CSTO and EAEU member states with third countries. To achieve this goal, military-economic cooperation of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia with third countries was examined and proposals were made for replacing purchases on the arms market with Russian counterparts. Some CSTO and EAEU countries seek to diversify their purchases in the arms market, providing a program of independent military development with the development of military-industrial cooperation with third countries. This situation forces Russia to ensure the development of plans for the import substitution of military products with Russian counterparts on the market of the CSTO and the EAEU. To test this hypothesis, we reviewed and analyzed publicly available statistics and documents, including data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In the course of data analysis, it was proved that Belarus, Kazakhstan and partially Armenia diversify their purchases of military equipment and weapons by actively developing military-economic cooperation with third countries, including China.

Nuclear war and public health: preparedness, protection and the case for prevention.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the year 2018 saw a continuing 'drift into global instability' in which 'both the USA and Russia are on a path of strategic nuclear (weapons) renewal' with 3750 nuclear bombs globally deployed 'ready to fire'. Treaties are being abrogated with increasingly aggressive language exchanged, and discredited tactics such as 'limited use' revived. These developments risk an amplifying cascade of nuclear weapon fire, whether started by intent, miscalculation or unintentionally. A nuclear war would cause immediate and massive loss of human life, unprecedented damage to societal infrastructures and climatic disruption resulting in a 'nuclear winter' or 'nuclear famine'. The systems defending national territory against nuclear warhead missiles do not guarantee protection, and neither would hastily erected domestic shelters. Any post-survival world would be utterly different and severely challenging. The only effective preventative measures require nuclear disarmament through treaty.

Военно-техническое сотрудничество и конкуренция России и Китая на современном мировом рынке вооружений как факторы российско-китайских отношений

The study discusses the historical backgrounds to armaments cooperation between Russia and China and reveals its present-day characteristics against the background of growing competition in the mod-ern global arms market. The paper shows that arms exports are increasingly being used as an influential mechanism for international relations in general. For China, its military exports are an effective geopolitical tool in the face of growing strategic competition from the United States of America. According to Stockholm International Peace Re-search Institute, Russia controls over 23% of the global arms market. It supplies 70% of its arms to India, Vietnam, China, and Algeria. The Russian Fed-eration is actively seeking new relevant supply mar-kets since weapons are the country’s main export product along with energy. The authors sub-stantiate the thesis that Russian-Chinese arma-ments cooperation may have a negative impact on relations between the countries. However, globally Moscow and Beijing focus on compre-hensive bilateral cooperation. In conclusion, there is a list of factors that can strengthen Russian-Chinese relationships.

Determinants of China’s arms exports: a political economy perspective

This paper investigates the determinants of China’s arms transfers by focusing on the roles of political factors and energy resource acquisition. Using Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data on China’s arms exports during the period from 2001 to 2014, we find that China is likely to sell and transfer more arms to countries with less political freedom and more corrupt or more autocratic countries, implying that political considerations are hidden in arms transfers. The motivation for seeking energy resources is overall supported, suggesting that China’s arms transfers are also motived by securing their need for energy and natural resources. That arms trade is a joint decision of both sides implies that political considerations also exist for autocratic regimes or resource-abundant low-income countries to acquire weapons from China.

Convergence of Defence Burdens in Asia-Pacific Economies: A Residual Augmented Least Squares Approach

AbstractThis paper investigates convergence of military burdens in the Asia-Pacific countries. Two different datasets of military expenditure have been used in the analysis including the datasets from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT). Unlike the existing papers on convergence of military burdens, we adopt a two-step method that allows the identification of countries that contribute to both stochastic and beta convergence. In the course of investigating the stochastic convergence, we use a residual augmented least squares (RALS) unit root test. The results suggest a weak evidence for convergence of military burdens in Asia-Pacific region, which is a departure from the majority of the existing studies that have provided substantial evidence of convergence. We further examine sigma convergence and the results suggest mixed evidence for convergence of military burdens. The policy implications of the results are discussed in the conclusion section.

The Effect of Military Expenditure on Profit Rates: Evidence from Major Countries

This article provides evidence of the effect of military expenditures on the rate of profits by focusing on 32 major countries for the period of 1963-2008 by using data from the Extended Penn World Tables, the University of Texas Inequality Project Estimated Household Income Inequality, the World Development Indicator, and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The article employs a Generalized Method of Moment model within a Marxist framework. Findings show that military expenditures have positive effect on the rate of profits. It is also showed that increasing income inequality increases the rate of profits. Finally, the findings suggest that while military expenditures have a positive effect on the profit rates in the case of both armsexporting countries and net-arms exporters, the relationship is not that significant in the case of arms-importing countries.

The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques

The objective of this research is to examine the effect of the growth rate of military spending on the growth rate of real output in 126 countries using panel data for 1980–2016. We used data from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank and from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. With the aim of capturing the heterogeneity among countries by income level, we divided countries into four groups: upper income, upper middle income, lower middle income, and lower income. Using cointegration and causality techniques for panel data, we found robust empirical evidence that suggests that military spending and real output have long and short-term equilibrium relationships in the different income groups. The results of the causality test suggest that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from real output to military spending in high income countries; and from military spending to real output in upper-middle and lower-middle income countries, and that no causal relationship in either direction exists in lower income countries. A policy implication derived from our research is that medium-low and low-income countries should redirect military spending toward more productive activities to increase long-term economic growth.

Analysis of SIPRI’s arms production data: Some suggestions for expansion

This article proposes that the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s top-100 dataset of the world's largest arms producers and military service providers be expanded to permit comparison of the value of arms/service sales not only in absolute terms across countries and time but also relative to countries’ industrial output. Specifically, the article suggests setting the sum of the arms/service sales of a country’s top-100 members in SIPRI’s list in relation to that country’s output in its machinery and equipment sector. Illustrating the suggestion with data for 2015 finds that countries such as Israel, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S. have a far greater percentage of its machinery and equipment sector vested in arms production than do countries such as France, Germany, or Japan. The article also suggests comparing a country’s top-arms producers to its top non-arms producers, that is, comparing country’s arms-makers listed in SIPRI’s top-100 list with, for example, companies in the Fortune Global 500 list. The article concludes with a discussion of methodological issues.

Issues in the quantitative analysis of the SIPRI arms industry database

Although the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s data on the 100 largest arms (and military services) producing firms is very widely used for various purposes, there is relatively little quantitative statistical analysis of it. This article discusses some of the issues involved in the econometric analysis of the data. This is complicated by the difficulty of modeling the processes of mergers, acquisitions, and divestments which drives entry and exit from the list. Various models are estimated to examine (a) the relationship between arms sales and military expenditure, (b) the evolution of concentration and the size distribution of firms, (c) the cross-section relationship between size and growth of firms, (d) the times-series properties of the arms sales of individual firms, and (e) of arms sales by country of ownership.

Filling arms production data gaps: South America as a case in point

In this article I argue that the data collection methods and procedures behind the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) global arms trade database can also be used to approximate domestic purchases of local production of major conventional arms. The total output of domestic arms industries would then be the sum of what is domestically retained (procured) plus arms exports, if any. The feasibility of this idea is tested by presenting new data on domestic arms production for five South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela) between 1960 and 2015. The results show the critical role government purchases play in maintaining domestic arms industries.

SIPRI’s arms producing and military services companies database

This article describes the history of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) arms producing and military services companies database (AIDB) as well as its purpose, its main strengths and deficiencies, and its data collection and implementation processes. It presents ideas to improve the AIDB discussed at an expert workshop held in Stockholm on 23–24 March 2018 and reports on concrete recommendations that SIPRI wishes to take forward to improve the database. The article’s first section provides an overview of the database’s history. The second section moves on to AIDB’s weaknesses and strengths, its data collection approach, and the sources and methods used. Section three discusses deficiencies of the database. Section four details aspects of the expert workshop and the important takeaways from the two-day meeting. The final section offers possible solution approaches to problems with the database.

The new post-Cold War arms market: competition, regulation and Europeanisation

‘This important book provides a comprehensive and much-needed analysis of French defence export policy, the first of its kind in more than 30 years. Lucie Béraud-Sudreau skilfully reconstructs the policy deliberations during the post-Cold War era, in the process shedding light on France's understanding of strategic autonomy. Her book will be essential reading for any observer of French defence policy.’Professor François Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, IISS‘French Arms Exports: The Business of Sovereignty is poised to become the go-to resource on the contemporary French arms trade. Not since the 1970s has there been such a carefully researched, historically rich and politically knowledgeable book about the French arms trade, and Béraud-Sudreau ably brings us from the Cold War to the modern day, using a wealth of original interview evidence. In doing so, she also offers important insights into the sources of continuity in French arms exports, amidst great political, economic and military change.’Jennifer L. Erickson, author of Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation and Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand French defence-export policy and its foundation in the broader policy conception of strategic autonomy. Taking a systematic deep dive, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau not only elaborates upon the relevant actors and internal power dynamics in the policy process, she also analyses the changes in policies and outcomes when France had to react to a shifting European and global political and industrial landscape.’Dr Christian Mölling, Deputy Director, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)Ever since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has believed its strategic independence to be predicated on self-sufficiency in modern weapons. In order to maintain the requisite defence-industrial base, in the context of limited domestic orders, successive governments have prioritised the export of French arms on a large scale.In this Adelphi book, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau provides a detailed, behind-the-scenes examination of the institutional arrangements that have underpinned France's relatively liberal approach to arms sales over the years. The narrative begins during the Cold War, when France offered customers an alternative to reliance on one of the superpowers for their arms purchases, and then charts how the French arms-export system has responded to international political developments and dramatic changes in the global arms market. The book shows that, in general, France's leaders and machinery of government have been resistant to the notion of restraining arms sales. It also looks to the future, arguing that France now faces a dilemma over whether to maintain its traditional course or accept a greater degree of export restraint as part of closer armaments cooperation with European partners.Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.

The ambiguity of French arms-export policy in the post-Cold War era

‘This important book provides a comprehensive and much-needed analysis of French defence export policy, the first of its kind in more than 30 years. Lucie Béraud-Sudreau skilfully reconstructs the policy deliberations during the post-Cold War era, in the process shedding light on France's understanding of strategic autonomy. Her book will be essential reading for any observer of French defence policy.’Professor François Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, IISS‘French Arms Exports: The Business of Sovereignty is poised to become the go-to resource on the contemporary French arms trade. Not since the 1970s has there been such a carefully researched, historically rich and politically knowledgeable book about the French arms trade, and Béraud-Sudreau ably brings us from the Cold War to the modern day, using a wealth of original interview evidence. In doing so, she also offers important insights into the sources of continuity in French arms exports, amidst great political, economic and military change.’Jennifer L. Erickson, author of Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation and Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand French defence-export policy and its foundation in the broader policy conception of strategic autonomy. Taking a systematic deep dive, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau not only elaborates upon the relevant actors and internal power dynamics in the policy process, she also analyses the changes in policies and outcomes when France had to react to a shifting European and global political and industrial landscape.’Dr Christian Mölling, Deputy Director, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)Ever since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has believed its strategic independence to be predicated on self-sufficiency in modern weapons. In order to maintain the requisite defence-industrial base, in the context of limited domestic orders, successive governments have prioritised the export of French arms on a large scale.In this Adelphi book, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau provides a detailed, behind-the-scenes examination of the institutional arrangements that have underpinned France's relatively liberal approach to arms sales over the years. The narrative begins during the Cold War, when France offered customers an alternative to reliance on one of the superpowers for their arms purchases, and then charts how the French arms-export system has responded to international political developments and dramatic changes in the global arms market. The book shows that, in general, France's leaders and machinery of government have been resistant to the notion of restraining arms sales. It also looks to the future, arguing that France now faces a dilemma over whether to maintain its traditional course or accept a greater degree of export restraint as part of closer armaments cooperation with European partners.Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.