Stock Return Volatility Research Articles

CEO regulatory focus and management earnings forecasts

In this study we examine the association between CEO Regulatory focus (RF) and likelihood, frequency, and accuracy of management earnings forecasts (MEFs). RF theory suggests that an individual makes decisions and pursues goals through either a promotion focus or prevention focus. A promotion focus individual is regulated towards achievements, success, growth, and advancement while a prevention focus individual is regulated towards vigilance, fulfilling basic duties and avoiding the performance of additional tasks. For the period of 2000 to 2018, we find that a CEO promotion focus is associated with higher likelihood, frequency, and accuracy of MEFs. On the other hand, CEO prevention focus results in a lower likelihood and frequency of MEFs. Additionally, the relationship between CEO prevention focus and MEF likelihood and frequency is negatively moderated by higher-level litigation within certain industries. Furthermore, stock return volatility is found to as mediate the relationship between CEOs RF (promotion focus and prevention focus) and MEFs.

Interconnectedness of financial institutions based on pledged shares in China

Influential system-wide events since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 have exhibited characteristics of risk contagion and spillover that arise from the interconnectedness of financial institutions. Both direct liability relationships and indirect interconnectedness measured by asset similarity can contribute to systemic risk. The present study constructs dynamic networks based on the same pledged shares held by different institutions in China from 2004 to 2021. The results show that policy changes such as transaction standardization and stricter rules on the use of credit can significantly affect stock-pledge transactions. This paper quantifies these effects with regard to different types of financial institutions, and finds that larger indirect interconnectedness could be related to lower stock-return volatility and higher systemic risk.

Analysing Volatility Dynamics of India and US Stock Market

Abstract: Analysing the risk-return trade-off of financial assets, volatility is a key factor. Volatility promotes market liquidity and demonstrates the effectiveness of the financial system. To have an insights of India And US Market Volatility behaviour, this paper examines the volatility dynamics of India And US Stock market by taking Sensex And S & P 500 daily closing prices for the 2nd January 2003 to 31st December 2019. The authors have two questions to examine about volatility whether India and US stock market volatility shows volatility clustering and volatility persistence or not. ARCH LM test and Ljung Box Q2 statistics were used to check for volatility clustering. And for volatility persistence GARCH (1,1) model is used. The results of the study confirm the presence of volatility clustering in in both India And US stock market. Additionally, Indian stock return volatility shows lower volatility persistence than US. The results of the study are quite useful for the academicians, policy makers and investor community in general

Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk on Firm Performance: The Mediating Role of Firm Risk

Business sustainability can be improved by achieving Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) aspects. The research aimed to examine the effect of ESG risk on firm risk and performance, the effect of firm risk on performance, and the mediating role of firm risk between ESG risk and performance. The research sample included 150 firms listed on the Indonesia ESG Leaders Index in Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2020-2022. The research measured ESG risk by the value of ESG risk, firm risk by stock return volatility, and performance by Return on Asset (ROA) and Tobin’s Q. Data analysis applied path analysis. Based on data analysis, lower ESG risk reduces firm risk and increases performance. Moreover, lower firm risk increases performance, and lower ESG risk increases performance through firm risk reduction. The result indicates that lower ESG risk captures the ability of ESG implementation to reduce the risk of economic value and give benefit to reducing costs of conflict, uncertainty, and bad reputation risk. Furthermore, lower ESG risk improves performance by helping firms to promote higher revenue and cost efficiency. In additional analysis, the effect of lower ESG risk on firm risk reduction and performance improvement occurs more for firms in the environmentally sensitive industry. The results show that industry sensitivity strengthens the positive effect of ESG risk on firm risk and the negative effect of ESG risk on performance. The research contributes to giving new evidence of ESG risk on firm risk and performance in Indonesia since ESG risk assessment is a new evaluation on the Indonesian Stock Exchange.

Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Volatility Connectedness and Spillover during Pandemic Induced-Crises: Evidence from BRICS Countries

This paper investigated exchange rate and stock price volatility connectedness and spillover in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) during pandemic-induced crises. We first extracted volatility using the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Then volatility connectedness and spillover were investigated by using (Diebold and Yilmaz, International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57–66, 2012) method. We find that exchange rate volatility and stock return volatilities are connected during pandemic-induced crises. The study also finds volatilities spillover among countries in the sample. Russia has strong volatility connectedness with India in these financial markets. The direction of volatility spillover is from Russia to India. Similarly, Brazil has strong volatility connectedness with South Africa and the direction volatility spillover is from Brazil to South Africa. Finally, China has a weak volatility connection with the remaining BRICS countries. Thus, the volatility transfer in these financial markets and across BRICS countries has economic implications.

Circular Economy, Stock Volatility, and Resilience to the COVID-19 Shock: Evidence from European Companies

Background: By decoupling economic growth from an intensive use of resources, preventing the impairment of natural capital, and enhancing resilience to system-wide shocks, the Circular Economy (CE) is a powerful opportunity to hedge against “linear” risk factors. In fact, it helps shielding against the risk of assets becoming stranded, can generate fresh and non-speculative demand for investments, and can improve investment results at both individual and portfolio levels. Problem: Therefore, equity investors into circular undertakings could benefit from (H1) reduced stock return volatility, as well as (H2) a greater ability to withstand exogenous negative events. Approach: For testing these hypotheses, we constructed a sample of 644 listed companies across EU-15 countries, plus Switzerland, and 17 different industries. We retrieved their market data in 2019–2020, as well as their accounting fundamentals in 2018–2019. By controlling for the latter, we investigated whether equity risk—either in total terms (i.e., the standard deviation of returns) or circumscribed to the systematic component thereof (i.e., the Beta against a European or global market index)—may be explained by a company’s degree of circularity, measured by the Circularity Score (CS). This is a novel indicator originally proposed by Zara and Ramkumar (2022), based on Refinitiv ESG data, the methodology whereof we significantly amended. As a core innovation, in weighting an entity’s performance on a CE framework, we assessed the latter’s “financial materiality” (i.e., relevance to the company’s business) at sub-industry level, applying the SASB Materiality Maps. Via OLS estimation, we tested our hypotheses (i) over the whole-time horizon, in a panel model; (ii) on specific timeframes, in a standard cross-sectional model. The latter was applied to either the entire 2020 or subperiods thereof: namely, with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak, we distinguished between a pre-shock, a shock and a post-shock phase. Our quest was refined to conduct a deeper investigation into the Oil & Gas industry, which is intrinsically the most exposed to linear risks and, also, did experience the widest volatility in 2020. Findings: Both H1 and H2 received widespread confirmation. The CS was found to exert a negative, significant and robust effect on all the three risk measures, over the whole timespan as well as in subperiods (particularly the post-shock phase). Also, amplifying effects were recorded on the Oil & Gas industry. Conclusions: Our results lend remarkable support to the idea that the CE is a powerful enabler of de-risking, also in case of a severe shock, with a view to mitigating the negative consequences and building back better. They call on firms and policymakers to foster the circular transition, thereby accelerating economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic crisis.

Return volatility, correlation, and hedging of green and brown stocks: Is there a role for climate risk factors?

We examine the effects of three monthly climate risk factors, climate policy uncertainty (CPU), climate change news (CCN), and negative climate change news (NCCN), on the long-run volatilities and correlation of daily green and brown energy stock returns, and perform a hedging analysis. Given that our dataset combines daily and monthly data, we apply mixed data sampling models such as GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS. To deal with volatility clustering, asymmetric effects, and negative skewness in innovations, which characterize our dataset, we use those models in asymmetric form with a bivariate skew-t distribution. Firstly, the GARCH-MIDAS models indicate that climate risk has a significant impact on the long-run volatility of brown energy stocks. Secondly, the DCC-MIDAS models reveal that the long-run correlation of green-brown stock returns decreases with the climate risk, suggesting a negative effect and hedging opportunities. Thirdly, the hedging analysis shows that incorporating a climate risk factor, especially NCCN, into the long-run component of dynamic correlation significantly improves the hedging performance between green and brown energy stock indices. The results are robust to an out-of-sample analysis under various refitting window sizes. They matter to portfolio and risk managers for energy transition and portfolio decarbonization.

Do derivatives benefit shareholders? Evidence from India

We show that for a sample of 1,882 publicly listed Indian firms and sample period from 2016 to 2021, derivative-usage significantly reduces the idiosyncratic stock return volatility. The negative effect of derivative-usage on idiosyncratic volatility is more pronounced for firms with poor information environment, and financially-constrained and distressed firms. The quality of corporate governance does not influence the relationship between derivative-usage and firm risk. The valuation of derivative-user firms is significantly higher than that of non-derivative-user firms. Overall, using derivatives benefits the firms using them, both in terms of reducing risk and creating value for the shareholders.

Reducing Return Volatility: The Role of Earnings Quality and Corporate Reputation

This research aims to explore the influence of earnings quality and company reputation on stock return volatility in non-cyclical consumer companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2017-2021 period using quantitative methods. The research sample was 175 non-cyclical consumer sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2017-2021 period and using PLS-SEM. The results of this research found that earnings quality has a negative effect on stock return volatility and company reputation has a negative effect on stock return volatility. Results of this research are expected to be useful for investors when investing in the stock market. Apart from that, it is also hoped that it can also be useful for companies so that they can be more careful in carrying out company operational activities so that they can improve their company's reputation in terms of quality, performance, responsibility and attractiveness which can reduce return volatility. This research is limited to consumer non-cyclicals sector in Indonesia and within just 5 years observation and contributes to existing knowledge by empirically testing the relationship between earnings quality and company reputation on stock return volatility. There has been no research in Indonesia that discusses the influence of company reputation on stock return volatility.

Presidential elections and stock return volatility: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African stock markets

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses various criteria to select an appropriate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the second moment of the return distribution with the inclusion of pre- and post-presidential election dummy variables that capture the effect of presidential elections on stock market volatility.FindingsThe empirical results show that high pre-election uncertainty increases volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the Nigeria Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results show that volatility in stock return is reduced 90 days after an election in Nigeria and South Africa but increases 90 days after elections in Ghana.Originality/valueContrary to the previous studies that are conducted in a single country with focus on specific elections, this paper provides a comparative analysis of presidential elections and stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Blockholder mutual fund participation in private in‐house meetings

AbstractThe Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) in China is unique worldwide in requiring disclosure of the timing, participants, and selected content of private in‐house meetings between firm managers and outsider investors. We investigate whether these private meetings benefit hosting firms and their major outside institutional investors—blockholder mutual funds (i.e., funds with ownership ≥5%). Using a large data set of SZSE firms, we find that blockholder mutual funds have more access to private in‐house meetings, and top management is more likely to be present, especially when a meeting is associated with negative news. Furthermore, when blockholder mutual funds attend negative‐news meetings with top management, they are less likely to sell shares, their investment relationship with the hosting firm lasts longer, and hosting firms experience lower postmeeting stock return volatility. These findings suggest that private in‐house meetings are an informative disclosure channel that improves social bonding between top management and blockholder mutual funds in ways that benefit hosting firms.

Research Trends and Mapping of Price Limits and Stock Prices in ASEAN 5: A Bibliometric Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine and analyze research trends and mapping of price limits and stock prices in ASEAN 5. This type of research is qualitative research. The research variables are Price Limit and Stock Price. The data collection technique used was bibliometric analysis from the Scopus database from 1996 to 2022. The number of research samples was 52 samples. The data analysis technique uses bibliometrics with the VOS viewer software program. The findings of this study indicate that 52 articles have been selected, with the number of publications increasing every year. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore have an important role to play in the article price limits and share prices on Scopus as well as price limits reducing the volatility of stock returns, overcoming overreactions and not disrupting trading activities.
 Keywords: Price limits, Bibliometrics, Scopus, VOSviewer, ASEAN 5.

Analisis Determinan Return Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur

Manufacturing stocks are the most sensitive sector to changes in macroeconomic conditions and have different stock return volatility. Return is the rate of return obtained from the investment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the different effects of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates and the IDR/USD exchange rate on stock returns in the manufacturing sector. Another factor that is thought to influence stock returns is the debt to equity ratio. This research is a quantitative research with the object of research on manufacturing companies listed on the IDX. The sample used is manufacturing companies that meet the criteria, so that obtained 76 companies during the years 2007-2009. Research data obtained by using documentation techniques. From the data obtained and analyzed using the SPSS 17.00 program, with multiple linear regression analysis tools. The results of this study indicate the results of 2 independent variabels, namely interest in the exchange rate and foreign exchange rates have a significant effect on stock returns with a negatif coefficient indicated by the significance level of 0.000 and 0.001. While the other 2 independent variabels, namely inflation and DER have no significant effect on stock returns, this is indicated by a significance level of 0.527 and 0.63.

Reprint of: On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms

We propose several connectedness measures built from pieces of variance decompositions, and we argue that they provide natural and insightful measures of connectedness. We also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that our connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. Building on these insights, we track daily time-varying connectedness of major U.S. financial institutions’ stock return volatilities in recent years, with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: Empirical Challenges and a New Estimator

AbstractThis article proposes a new method for examining the impact on a firm’s investment of uncertainty reflected in its stock-return volatility. We simultaneously address the endogeneity of uncertainty and mismeasurement in Tobin’s Q, but earlier empirical work often neglects one of the two issues. Our nonparametric estimates further suggest that the relation between investment and uncertainty is significantly decreasing and strongly concave. This result contrasts with the existing literature that widely adopts linear regressions. Ignoring nonlinearity or measurement error in Q can lead to a substantial estimation bias. However, the bias due to the endogeneity of uncertainty is small.

Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China

AbstractWe examine how the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon enforced on September 8, 2015, influences stock price stability in China's A‐share market. As the new dividend tax policy waives the tax on cash dividends for investors holding a stock for more than a year, it encourages long‐term investment behavior. From 2013 to 2017, we find that stock turnover, return volatility, and turnover volatility decrease after the policy enforcement, especially for stocks with high dividend yields. This result shows that dividend tax reforms increase investors' stock investment horizons and help stabilize the market. However, our findings demonstrate that stock crash risk increases after policy enforcement. Further analysis shows that earnings management through real activities manipulation for stocks with a higher dividend yield contributes to an increase in stock crash risk. Therefore, one externality of the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon is that top managers of firms with a higher dividend yield may take advantage of investors' passive longer‐term investment behavior and engage in more earnings management. This result suggests that regulatory agencies should pay attention to top managers' earnings management behavior after enacting policies that encourage long‐term investment.

The effect of vaccination during the COVID-19 for the restaurant industry

The purpose of the study is to determine whether vaccination rates and the use of franchising have an impact on the volatility of stock returns in the restaurant industry. Based on the agency and resource scarcity theories, this study first examines the effect of vaccinations against COVID-19 on a restaurant firm’s stock return volatilities caused by uncertainty during a crisis. The study further investigates whether firm-specific vaccination rates more greatly reduce stock return volatilities as the degree of franchising increases. With a two-way fixed-effects model, the study finds that the firm-specific vaccination rate reduces volatilities of the firm’s stock returns. However, the study also finds an opposite direction to the moderating effect of franchising in that the more a restaurant firm franchises, the further the risk-reduction effect of its vaccination rate diminishes. Theoretical and practical implications along with limitations are discussed.

Disclosure strategies for management earnings forecasts: The role of managerial compensation structures, overoptimism, and effort

Management earnings forecasts have received significant attention as an important source for setting firm expectations. Our paper argues that how these forecasts are presented to the public is important for managing these expectations. We present both analytical and empirical analyses demonstrating that managers’ disclosure framing choices will depend on the information type, managerial overoptimism, and managerial compensation structures. We also provide evidence showing that disclosure framing choices can dampen stock return volatility. Finally, we indicate that disclosure strategies alter the misreporting results found in Guttman et al. (2006).

Time Series Modeling on Stock Return at PT. Telecommunication Indonesia Tbk.

One of the time series data modeling is the ARMA model which assumes constant volatility. However, in economic and financial data, there are many cases where volatility is not constant. This results in the occurrence of heteroscedasticity problems in the residuals, so a GARCH model is needed. In addition to heteroscedasticity, another problem with residuals is the asymmetric effect or leverage effect. For that we need asymmetric GARCH modeling. This study aims to compare the accuracy of the ARMA, GARCH, and asymmetric GARCH models. This research is an applied research. The data used is daily stock return data from February 2020 to February 2022 as many as 488 data. The results showed that the best model in modeling stock return volatility is ARMA(0,1). The accuracy of this model is very good with MAD value of 0,0018644 and RMSE value of 0,0025352.

Risk Spillovers between Bitcoin and ASEAN+6 Stock Markets before and after COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparative Analysis with Gold

This paper applies the multivariate GARCH models to investigate the role of Bitcoin as a hedge and safe haven for ASEAN+6 stock markets compared to gold. We used daily data for the dates 2 January 2017–20 January 2023, covering the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical findings provide compelling evidence of cross-market shock and volatility transmission between stock returns and Bitcoin returns in both directions. Therefore, the dynamics of Bitcoin returns significantly influence the volatility of stock returns, and the relationship also holds in reverse. All diagonal element estimations are statistically significant for both periods, as shown by the findings of the return and volatility spillovers between the returns of gold and the ASEAN+6 stock market. For most ASEAN+6 equity markets evaluated, Bitcoin and gold are not safe havens, and their inclusion increases the portfolio downside risk.