Migrant Stock Research Articles

Corruption and emigration from the Western Balkans: evidence from a dynamic system GMM model (2012-2022)

According to neoclassical models, migration takes place when there is a strong probability that individuals will recoup their human capital investments. As a result, workers typically move from low-income to high-income areas and the larger the expected income gap between areas, the higher the number of migrants. In countries where corruption is endemic, jobs are often secured through political connections and bribes. This will lead to a higher unemployment level as well as to a lower return to human capital. Consequently, a significant proportion of the population considers emigration as the only path to succeed. The present study is focused on the impact of corruption on emigration from six Western Balkan countries. A System Generalized Method of Moments is estimated to analyze migrant stocks in 28 receiving countries during the period from 2012 to 2022. We suggest that corruption can directly influence migration stocks in receiving countries.

Search for a New Home: Refugee Stock and Google Search

Following the assumption that trends of online queries may indicate intentions and help to predict human behavior, this study addresses the general issue of analyzing, nowcasting, and predicting migrant decisions through an analysis of Google search patterns in the case of Syrians in Turkey. Aiming to contribute to the literature on predicting migration patterns, we examine the relationship between Google search queries for province names in Turkey and the number of Syrians under temporary protection across provinces from January 2016 to December 2019 and demonstrate a positive and significant association. Then, we explore the predictive power of Google searches in predicting the stock of Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey across provinces. We exploit the alphabetical difference between Turkish and Arabic as the method of differentiation between host and migrant populations. Our findings indicate that Google searches can be good predictors for estimating refugee stocks, especially when traditional data are not available. They can also be helpful in forecasting the changing pattern of migrant stocks at frequent intervals, to which conventional socioeconomic indicators are less sensitive due to their less frequent reporting periods.

Does Greylisting Affect the Workers’ Remittances to their Home Country? A Case Study of Pakistan

Inward forward remittances are an important source of foreign reserves for Pakistan and they are also conducive in maintaining the current account deficit at a manageable level. In this article, the author has attempted to gauge the impact of FATF grey listing on the inward foreign remittances of Pakistani workers employed abroad. The time series data spanning from 2001-2022 has been used to estimate these effects using the ARDL time series estimation method and bounds testing technique for cointegration. It has been estimated that no statistically significant effect of greylisting on workers’ remittances exists either in the short or in the long run. This is in tandem with various studies that have found that FATF listing does not necessarily have a conclusive or negative effect on the economic variable(s). However, the estimates suggest that there exists a statistically significant relationship between the exchange rates and the workers’ migration stocks in the short and the long run. The result(s) of the study adds to the existing literature because to the author's knowledge, no prior work has been done regarding the impact of greylisting on the workers’ remittances sent to the home country and this effect has not been studied individually in the case of a developing country like Pakistan. Furthermore, the available literature suggests that in general, not much work has been done to estimate the impact of greylisting or blacklisting on the country’s economy; the results available in the existing literature are also mixed; where some studies report unconclusive impacts whereas other studies report a negative impact of greylisting on the economic aspects they analysed.

Have China’s internal migrants been more settled since 2010? A contribution based on migrants’ age profiles

ABSTRACT This Research Note employs age data to assess whether China’s internal migrants have become more settled since 2010. The aim is to answer the crucial question of whether recent hukou reform initiatives have achieved their goals of improving migrant settlement. We extend a method from existing research that examines two key aspects of settlement – family togetherness and long-term stay of migrants – through analyzing age profiles of migrant stock. Specifically, by scrutinizing age data from the 2010 and 2020 censuses, we evaluate whether the child and elderly dependents of migrants are more engaged in migration and whether migrants growing old can better remain in the destinations. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the age distribution of migrants became slightly more even across all age groups, yet it was still concentrated in young adults – the overall shape remained largely unchanged. This indicates a small improvement in settlement, which is unsatisfactory given the various hukou reform initiatives aimed at substantially increasing settlement opportunities in the last 10 years. Much greater efforts on hukou reform and support for migrants are needed. Furthermore, our research highlights the utility of age data in assessing the actual extent of migrant settlement, as opposed to the exclusive focus on settlement intentions, which are common in existing studies.

Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union

Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with novel data sources, primarily from the Facebook Advertising Platform. Findings suggest that combining different data sources provides near real-time estimates that can serve as early warnings about shifts in EU mobility patterns. Estimated migrant stocks match relatively well to the observed data, despite some overestimation of smaller migrant populations and underestimation for larger migrant populations in Germany and the United Kingdom. In addition, the model estimates missing stocks for migrant corridors and years where no data are available, offering timely now-casted estimates.

Bilateral Remittance Inflows to Asia and the Pacific: Countercyclicality and Motivations to Remit

This paper examines the cyclicality of remittance inflows to economies in Asia and the Pacific, aiming to identify major factors associated with remittances using gravity models of bilateral remittances. An analysis that assesses correlation coefficients between the cyclical factors of remittances and gross domestic product suggests that remittances tend to be countercyclical, or acyclical, against the business cycle of the remittance-receiving economy relative to the sending economy. This observation is confirmed by the gravity models of bilateral remittances. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that migrant stock is one of the most significant factors affecting bilateral remittances. The study also shows that an increase in bilateral remittances can be attributed to a higher occurrence of disasters triggered by natural hazards in receiving economies, an appreciation of the receiving economy’s currency value against the sending economy’s, a lower interest rate differential (receiver–sender), greater capital account openness, more political instability, and lower costs of remittances.

Stop, in the Name of COVID! Using Social Media Data to Estimate the Effects of COVID-19-Related Travel Restrictions on Migration

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Organization for Migration has postulated that international migrant stocks fell short of their pre-pandemic projections by nearly 2 million as a result of travel restrictions. However, this decline is not testable with migration data from traditional sources. Key migration stakeholders have called for using data from alternative sources, including social media, to fill these gaps. Building on previous work using social media data to analyze migration responses to external shocks, we test the hypothesis that COVID-related travel restrictions reduced migrant stock relative to expected migration without such restrictions using estimates of migrants drawn from Facebook's advertising platform and dynamic panel models. We focus on four key origin countries in North and West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, and Senegal) and on their 23 key destination countries. Between February and June 2020, we estimate that a destination country implementing a month-long total entry ban on arrivals from Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, or Senegal might have expected a 3.39% reduction in migrant stock from the restricted country compared with the counterfactual in which no travel restrictions were implemented. However, when broader societal disruptions of the pandemic are accounted for, we estimate that countries implementing travel restrictions might paradoxically have expected an increase in migrant stock. In this context, travel restrictions do not appear to have effectively curbed migration and could have resulted in outcomes opposite their intended effects.

Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries

In this paper, we investigate the effect of balance of payments statistical leakages (Net errors and omissions) on the external solvency of net foreign asset positions in the EU28 sample over the period 1995–2019. The Bohn (2007) error-correction reaction function approach adapted to a dynamic panel framework (pooled mean group estimator) yields evidence of a substantial improvement in the sustainability of external positions in one out of four analyzed countries (compared to only one to three countries reporting deterioration), once the extent of hypothesized trade and non-interest income misreporting is accounted for. These findings may reflect the presence of a possible association between statistical omissions and current account transactions linked to remittances flows or tax optimization behavior, as the statistical leakages are sensitive to changes in corporate tax rates and international migrant stock.

Research on the relationship between social capital and sustainable livelihood: evidences from reservoir migrants in the G Autonomous Prefecture, China

Although hydropower serves as a clean alternative energy source, the global challenge of resettlement due to dam construction underscores the importance of sustainable livelihoods in achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In recent years, the sustainable livelihood theory has offered a new perspective for examine the development of livelihoods of reservoir migrants after relocation. However, in-depth relationship between social capital and sustainable livelihoods has not been explored. In this study, three hydropower resettlement areas were selected in the G Autonomous Prefecture of China as an example. Our investigation delved into the influence of social networks, social norms, and social trust on the livelihoods of reservoir migrants. Study employed semi-structured interviews, participant observation, and qualitative analysis to explore this impact. The results show that the traditional social capital stock of reservoir migrants, dominated by family, neighborhood and religious networks, has declined. Therefore, the structural function of modern social capital should be strengthened by increasing the social trust of reservoir migrants in institutions and civil society organizations. The contribution of livelihood diversification in poverty reduction by 2030 (SDG-1) was realized by focusing on the role of social capital to promote infrastructure, improve living conditions and increase employment opportunities for migrants. The findings further point to the need to fully respect the customs and lifestyles of ethnic minorities during the resettlement process of reservoir migrants in order to preserve the role played by their traditional social capital, thereby promoting the sustainable development of the livelihoods of reservoir migrants.

Regional Variation in Social Norms and Domestic Anti-Immigrant Hostility

Why are some ingroup members (i.e., natives) more tolerant of, or hostile toward, outgroup others (i.e., immigrants)? A large volume of evidence exists attempting to address this issue. The bulk of findings from observational and experimental research focuses on the dual concept of ‘realistic’ and ‘symbolic’ threat, operationalized in terms of migrant stock or percentage of foreign-born population. According to the literature, a higher stock generally indicates a higher threat, which in turn implies greater xenophobic sentiment. Against this backdrop, the present study shifts the analytic emphasis to a novel explanatory mechanism in the US context: strength of social norms at the state level. Specifically, by drawing on the concept of cultural tightness-looseness, it asks whether American citizens in a geographic region characterized by strong social norms and stringent sanctioning of deviance are, on average, more xenophobic. Results from mixed effects models provide substantial support. Based on nationally representative data collected by the Pew Research Center (2018) during the height of Trump administration, the analysis reveals that cultural tightness has a contextual effect: net of controls, residency in a state with a higher index score is associated with greater levels of anti-immigrant prejudice and stronger preference for anti-immigration policy.

Azerbaijani Higher Education to implement mass English Medium Instruction (EMI) policies

In the last decade, Azerbaijani universities’ upward implementation of English-medium instruction (EMI) policy has spread among most of the country's universities, public and private. Students are no longer enthusiastic about getting an education in their native language, neither they see Russian as a medium of instruction that used to be a vehicle for a brighter future. Research suggests that the rapid implementation of EMI policy is primarily motivated by the pursuit of internationalization (Williams, 2023), participation in international projects (Mammadova, 2020), and international academic mobility (Mammadova, 2023). As a result, attributed to the mass abandoning of the country by young early career specialists who have recently graduated from Higher Educational Institutions (HEI), the country annually loses a high number of qualified personnel (see Figure 1) who heavily resort to their linguistic competencies and go after a ‘better life’. Figure 1 demonstrates the average value for Azerbaijan to leave the country during the period between 2015 and 2022. With an average of 4.74 points out of 10, the minimum 4 index point was observed in 2016 and a maximum of 4.4 index points in 2022. In turn, the UN Migrant Stocks (2021) reports that by mid-2020 Azerbaijan had an emigration rate of 10.6 percent of its entire population. According to Chaikhana Media (2022), ‘there's a brain drain in Azerbaijan, highly-skilled people do leave their country even though they have had a high salary in Azerbaijan.’

Recent vs Historical Migrants: A Study on the Canadian Provincial Trade-Migration Nexus

Abstract We contribute to the literature by exploring the variation in the trade-creating effect of migration networks across historical migrants and recent migrants by applying a micro-founded gravity model of trade. Both the stock of historical migrants and recent migrants variables are constructed by merging Canadian Census data with the migration data available in Statistics Canada. We address the endogeneity issue by applying IV estimators including two-step feasible GMM and PPML with IV and fixed effects by utilizing the imputed annual migration flow, the historical stock, and recent stock of migrants as instrumental variables proposed by Peri and Requena (2010). Taking Canadian geographical features into account, this study also applies carefully measured gravity variables. We control for the time-varying, exporter-year fixed effects, and importer-year fixed effects in a panel estimation. Estimated results show that annual migration, recent provincial stock of migrants, and historical stock of migrants significantly increase Canadian interprovincial trade. This impact is stronger for the stock of historical migrants relative to the stock of recent migrants and annual migration flow. Sub-sample analysis shows that both recent and historical migration consistently increase interprovincial service trade, only but not interprovincial goods trade. A greater combination of English and French-speaking provinces-pair significantly increases interprovincial trade. Regional trade agreements significantly impact the interprovincial trade of Canada. Our estimated results are robust to different estimation methods and alternative measures for the migrants’ stock and flow variables.

The Impact of Corruption on Migration: Evidence from the Western Balkans

The fight against corruption remains one of the most fundamental problems for Western Balkans societies and governments. Hiring in the public sector is often determined by networks and clientelism. The exchange of favours and loyalty to a patron are the “normal” ways to access economic opportunities. As a result, a considerable portion of the population considers emigration as the only path to succeed. The main objective of this study is to analyse the impact of corruption on Western Balkan migrant stocks over the years from 2012 to 2020. The selected time period depends mainly on data availability and frequency. A gravity-based equation is developed to explain changes in the number of immigrants living in 31 European destinations. The proposed econometric model confirms the statistical significance of corruption variables in migrant stocks of receiving countries. Individuals tend to move from countries with high levels of corruption and poor governance toward richer and less corrupt destinations.

An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration

Abstract Are differences in per capita income between countries really the main cause of migratory flows? Mainstream economic thinking would give an affirmative answer. In the light of the heterodox literature, in this article, the authors critically evaluate this view and then they conduct an empirical test (applying panel and dynamic panel models) on data relating to the stocks of migrants on 232 countries from 1990 to 2019, trying to explain migration trends based on social-political, cultural, demographic and economic variables (obtained by integrating 4 official datasets). The results reveal a non-unique influence of differences in per capita income on migratory flows: up to a certain threshold (around $27,000) migration appears to be directly related to per capita GDP of migrants’ country of origin. Furthermore, the pre-existing stock of migrants in the country of destination takes on an important role, in line with the findings of the literature on migratory chains. These empirical findings could contribute to improve migration policies.

Immigrants, Foreign Workers and Bilateral Trade: Evidence from Türkiye

This study scrutinizes distinctively the impact of immigrants and foreign workers on Türkiye’s bilateral trade with their countries of origin. For this purpose, we use data related to the total migration stock of the country and the foreign workers in Turkish firms from 2015 to 2021. Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation results indicate a positive association between migration and trade in Türkiye in line with previous studies. The results show that a 10% growth in the immigrant stock from a country contributes to Türkiye's exports to that country by 1.8% and imports from that country by 1.4%. These effects are 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively, in the case of foreign workers per se. The findings partially confirm that the trade facilitating effects of foreign workers, which are assumed to be more qualified than the average in terms of education, skill, and experience, are larger than all immigrants. To put it differently, immigrants generally improve Türkiye's exports more than skilled immigrants who increase its imports less than immigrants overall.

The impact of international money transfer cost transparency on remittance flows to emerging economies

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the impact of cost transparency introduced by the Remittance Prices Worldwide (RPW) online transaction cost comparison tool on remittance inflows of remittance recipient countries in emerging economies.Design/methodology/approachPanel fixed-effect model was employed to test the hypothesis focussing on the period five years before and five years after the adoption of the RPW tool. Macroeconomic determinants of international remittances were also included in the model, and the study focused on 115 emerging economies.FindingsThe econometric results reveal that financial development, gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation encourage remittance inflows, whereas interest rate and age dependency ratio discourage remittances. Political stability and migrant stock seem not to influence remittances flowing into emerging markets.Originality/valueEmpirical evidence corroborates the hypothesis that an increase in cost transparency boosts remittance flows. The findings suggest cost transparency is another lever for policymakers to target in boosting remittance flows.

Determinants of Migration Flows in Highly Skilled Migrants Interprovince in Indonesia

Migration and regional inequality are two interrelated concepts. Inequality between regions can lead to migration. High-skilled migration, or migration of high-quality human resources, has great potential to reduce interregional disparities by helping development in the destination area. However, in reality, the flow of high-skilled migration tends to lead to more advanced provinces, especially the capital and its surroundings. This condition causes disparities between regions to increase. This study analyzes the phenomenon of internal high-skilled migration between provinces in Indonesia at a macro level using a modified gravity model approach and is estimated using the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. The results of this study show that the number of high-skilled populations in the provinces of origin and destination, geographical distance, average wages for workers, and the percentage of agricultural workers in the destination province, as well as the stock of migrants, influence the flow of high skilled migration between provinces in Indonesia. Increasing workers’ wages, access to transportation and information/social networks, as well as industrialization outside Java, need to be carried out to attract high-skilled migrants or keep high-skilled workers to remain in their provinces to realize equity between regions.

The macro-contextual drivers of the international mobility of managers and executives

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess the country-level drivers of managers' and executives' mobility. Both sub-groups play a fundamental role in entrepreneurship, innovation and ultimately on wealth creation in destination countries. The objective is to capture how the impact of economic, cultural and institutional factors differ for these sub-groups’ vis-a-vis the broad highly skilled group's mobility.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the country-level drivers of managers' and executives' bilateral migration from 190 countries to 32 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. It builds a model on four macro-contextual attractiveness factors of destination countries: economic conditions, cultural affinity, institutions and quality of life. The authors use fixed-effects regressions and carry several model specifications comparing the impact of different attractiveness factors on the migration of lower skilled, highly skilled, managers and executives.FindingsThe authors find that economic incentives do not motivate managers' or executives' mobility. The quality of life is more significant in driving executives' mobility than economic measures are. Cultural affinity, institutions and quality of life are more important for managers. Ethnic relations are significant for the overall highly skilled sample.Practical implicationsThese results have implications for global companies interested in recruiting managers and executives and their recruitment strategies. International businesses attempting to maximize their access to international managers, for instance, can develop recruitment packages that capitalize on the particularities of the quality of life of the potential destination country. Such packages can contribute to streamlining the process and focusing on candidates' needs to increase the likelihood of relocation. The study’s results, in addition, have policy implications in terms of the “branding” of countries whose aim is to attract managers and other highly skilled talent. Officials can build an effective country-branding strategy on the existence of ethnic networks, effective institutions and quality of life to attract a particular segment of the talent pool. For instance, they can develop a strategy to attract executives by focusing on a specific cultural characteristic and elements of the quality of life such as the effectiveness of their country's healthcare and education systems.Social implicationsThe paper also points out to the issues that policymakers must resolve in the absence of an education system that guarantees the talent pool that the economy needs. For those countries that rely on foreign talent (such as Switzerland, Singapore and the USA), it is paramount to promote safety, quality of life and institutional development, in order to guarantee a sufficient inflow of talent.Originality/valueMost global studies focus on the complete migrant stock or on highly skilled workers in particular. The authors disaggregate the sample further to capture the drivers of managers' and executives' migration. The authors find that latter sub-groups respond to different country-level attractiveness factors compared to the broader highly skilled sample. In doing so, the authors contextualize the study of mobility through a positively global lens and incorporate the impact of some of the factors generally overlooked.

Examining the cyclical pattern of remittance flow, migrants stock, and income of 31 pairs of countries with India

This study has examined the cyclical pattern of remittances, migrants’ stock, and income of 31 pairs of countries with India for the period from 2010 to 2016. The main motivation was to examine whether immigration and emigration policies play an influential role to improve welfare between the host and origin country or not in terms of bilateral remittance flows. As our bilateral remittance and migrant stock data follow a binomial distribution, so we have applied both ordered logit and ordered probit regression models to examine the smoothing hypothesis which was a new addition to the literature. Our result shows that remittance and migrant stocks show a counter-cyclical movement with an income of country origin while it shows a pro-cyclical movement with an income of country destination. The study concludes that financial constraint is a major issue for immigrants’ movement that leads to low remittances flows and should be alleviated. Further, immigration and emigration policies should be determined by looking at the unemployment rate, the magnitude of migration, and the population size of both host and origin countries.

A review of experimental evidence of how communication affects attitudes to immigration

The need for strategic communication in migration policymaking is increasingly widely recognised. Whereas until recently there was relatively little academic evidence of what forms of immigration communication are effective, the past few years have seen a large amount of new experimental evidence. This article overviews 68 experimental studies, as well as other relevant studies, categorising their findings into nine common communication strategies. Appealing to common interest rather than self-interest, appealing to conformity rather than diversity, migrant descriptions, appealing to common ground, and appealing to empathy are consistently shown to be effective. Fact-checking of the effects of migration and appealing to emotions are mostly shown to be effective, as is appealing to identity where applicable. By contrast, appealing to diversity is consistently shown to be ineffective, while correcting information about migrant stocks and appeals to self-interest are mostly shown to be ineffective. Overall, this review article supports psychological findings regarding attitudinal formation that emphasise sociotropic considerations of the effects of immigration, economic or otherwise, on the collective while offering weaker support for egocentric approaches.