Corruption and emigration from the Western Balkans: evidence from a dynamic system GMM model (2012-2022)

Abstract

According to neoclassical models, migration takes place when there is a strong probability that individuals will recoup their human capital investments. As a result, workers typically move from low-income to high-income areas and the larger the expected income gap between areas, the higher the number of migrants. In countries where corruption is endemic, jobs are often secured through political connections and bribes. This will lead to a higher unemployment level as well as to a lower return to human capital. Consequently, a significant proportion of the population considers emigration as the only path to succeed. The present study is focused on the impact of corruption on emigration from six Western Balkan countries. A System Generalized Method of Moments is estimated to analyze migrant stocks in 28 receiving countries during the period from 2012 to 2022. We suggest that corruption can directly influence migration stocks in receiving countries.